Tag: Collingwood Magpies

#1 Most Relevant | Nick Daicos

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Nick Daicos has made an indelible mark on the AFL landscape in just two short years, showcasing a career trajectory many veterans would envy. From clinching the Rising Star award to being adorned with an Anzac Day medal, earning his inaugural All-Australian honours, and even securing a premiership medal, Daicos’s contributions to the game have been spectacular.

His remarkable journey, however, was marred by a late-season injury, which arguably was the only thing standing between him and the prestigious 2023 Brownlow Medal.

Nick Daicos, in just his second AFL season, has rapidly become one of fantasy football’s most valuable assets, especially in AFLFantasy and SuperCoach formats. In AFLFantasy, he notched an impressive average of 108.8 points per game, with 14 games scoring over 100 points. Six of these games saw him surpass the 120-point mark, including a standout performance that earned him a career-high score of 150.

Of equal importance, he posted only two scores below 80 points throughout the season, one of which came in a challenging match where he was heavily tagged by Finn Maginness and also suffered an injury. Despite these hurdles, Daicos finished the season as the top defender by average, outperforming notable midfielders like Connor Rozee, Caleb Serong, and Christian Petracca.

In the SuperCoach, Daicos’s performance was equally stellar, with an average score of 117 points per game. He tallied 15 games with scores in the triple digits, cementing his position as the top defender by average and ranking 7th overall, above esteemed players such as Jordan Dawson, Rowan Marshall, and Tom Liberatore. Even when faced with tags and injuries, Daicos’s remarkable consistency and scoring ability underscore his immense value in fantasy leagues and his pivotal role as a defender in fantasy lineups.

Nick Daicos’s transition to spending more time in the midfield has significantly boosted the value of his fantasy football. Analyzing his performance, it’s evident that his scoring potential escalates with increased midfield attendance. Specifically, in the 12 matches where Daicos attended at least 35% of centre bounces, his AFLFantasy average soared to 107.5, while in SuperCoach, it reached 112.4. This distinction becomes even more pronounced in games where his centre bounce attendance spiked to 65% or more, showcasing averages of 116 in AFLFantasy and an impressive 121.8 in SuperCoach. Such statistics underline Daicos’s burgeoning prowess as he delves deeper into midfield roles and hints at a ceiling that has yet to be fully explored.

Daicos’s ability to elevate his game further into the midfield realm, combined with his already impressive stats in only his second season, sets the stage for what could be an extraordinary career.

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MY TAKE

Navigating the decision to start or target Nick Daicos as an upgrade hinges on several key narratives that fantasy football coaches must consider. The infamous Finn Maginness tag game in Round 4, compounded by an injury to Daicos, is a cautionary tale. While some in the fantasy community might be tempted to exclude this outlier to boost Daicos’s averages to 112 in AFLFantasy and 120 in SuperCoach, it’s a reminder of the inherent risks and the complexity of relying too heavily on selective data to fit a narrative.

Opting to wait and target Daicos as an upgrade revolves around strategic considerations, including:

  • The Early Bye Round: Collingwood’s absence in Round 5 offers a strategic pause, allowing coaches to assess Daicos’s early-season form and tag susceptibility.
  •  Tagging Threats: Beyond the Finn Maginness game, the potential for Willem Drew’s tag in Round 6 looms, hinting at challenging matchups that could affect Daicos’s scoring and, by extension, his price.
  •  Price Dynamics: The combined effect of these early challenges presents a scenario where Daicos might be acquired at a more favourable price point post-bye, aligning with a strategy to maximize value from premium selections.

Conversely, the argument for starting with Daicos underscores his unparalleled status in fantasy backlines, characterized by:

  • Dominance and Potential: As the preeminent defender in fantasy, Daicos’s blend of skill, role, and scoring potential sets him apart, suggesting that early investment could secure a cornerstone for fantasy defences.
  •  Preparation and Adaptation: The Magpies’ preseason focus on mitigating the tag’s impact reflects a strategic emphasis on enhancing Daicos’s resilience and scoring consistency, even under targeted pressure.
  •  Natural Evolution and Role Expansion: Daicos’s ongoing development and the prospect of increased midfield time provide a compelling narrative for improved scoring, underpinning his appeal as a starting option.

The equilibrium between starting Daicos and planning him as an upgrade target epitomizes the strategic intricacies of fantasy football. Coaches must weigh the immediate advantages of securing his high ceiling from the outset against a mid-season upgrade’s tactical flexibility and potential value. This decision is further complicated by Collingwood’s early fixtures against GWS, Sydney, St Kilda, and Brisbane, with Daicos’s performances in these matches poised to influence strategic directions profoundly.

Ultimately, whether to integrate Daicos from Round 1 or strategically pivot to him post-bye encapsulates the dynamic challenge of fantasy football management. Each path offers distinct advantages and risks, underscoring the necessity of adaptive strategy and keen market observation to optimize fantasy outcomes.

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DRAFT DECISION

In AFLFantasy and SuperCoach drafts, Nick Daicos stands as the premier defender, warranting consideration as the very first pick on draft day. His exceptional output, combined with a unique blend of reliability and upside, firmly establishes him atop the defender rankings. As fantasy coaches strategize for the draft, securing Daicos could be pivotal, marking him as a cornerstone for any successful fantasy football campaign.

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Practice Match Review: Hawthorn Vs Collingwood

Finally, the games started and we got underway with the Magpies and the Hawks. Here’s my take on the game,

Tom Mitchell

If you were keen before there’s no reason not to be now. Played midfield and found a good mix of contested and uncontested footy. Within this Collingwood game style the Titch scoring of old won’t return, but he’s clearly an important part of how the Pies midfield set up as demonstrated by his CBA numbers (19 – third highest)

Darcy Cameron

A pretty invisible game despite what the numbers suggest. A positive here is that his split of the ruck was larger than Cox this week – roughly 60/40 in his favour. From R7 2022 Cameron had 56% of the ruck share for his 92 average, so we may see a similar split in 2023, though his scoring may be affected with an added tall in McStay coming into the side. For this reason, Cameron could potentially be a sub out candidate if the Pies feel they are too tall.

Taylor Adams

Played a decent bit up forward and could be a forward DPP candidate come R6. He looks super fit at the moment and a fit Adams always has a capacity to score, but the consistency may be lacking in this role.

Jack Crisp

Looks to be purely a midfielder now. Was relevant in a Buckley era Collingwood side, but will struggle to get up amongst the top midfielders to be worth using a starting pick on. With no chance of DPP, I’d be looking elsewhere.

Jordan De Goey

Played through the midfield and despite low TOG put up some impressive numbers. Would be worth serious consideration if he still had forward status, but as a mid only you’d need to be really confident in him – and even then I think his ceiling will be capped by the current Collingwood gamestyle of move the ball forward at all costs.

Nick Daicos

Was tagged by Finn Maginness and had to get creative with how he found the footy. It was a pretty tight tag so I tend to look at the positives in that he still managed 17 disposals and a modest 58 fantasy score, and you’d think he’d be better off for the experience…perhaps it’s lit a fire in his belly for R1. Still, this could be the beginning of a trend and Sam Mitchell has put the blueprint up on the wall for all the other clubs. Aside from this concern, when he was involved in the play he looked like the same Nick Daicos many coaches grew to love last year. I wouldn’t be hitting the panic button on this one.

Jai Newcombe

This kid is going to be a star. Every chance he takes another step in his fantasy potential as it looks like he’s locked down the main mid spot in the hawthorn engine room. The best fantasy players come into the comp with an ability to tackle, then learn to hunt the footy – and I think that sums up Newcombe well. It remains to be seen if he can find the footy consistently but I think this pick screams upside – the question is how much, and is he worth picking over other players priced similarly? I’ll leave that up to you as a reader because this one needs the eye test.

Cam Mackenzie

Lock him in on field for round 1. Classy, high footy IQ and uses the ball superbly. Couldn’t have shown any more.

James Sicily

Did as Sicily does – if you were keen before then he gave you no reason not to be now. You’ll get what you pay for here, and likely find some upside in games where the Hawks are uncompetitive. A slight flag would be the share of kick ins with Bramble, but it’s impossible to answer whether this’ll happen in the season proper.

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Will Day

Had the mid role and worked into it as the game went on. He looked good in there but is very much a sweeper so will be reliant on getting the ball fed out to him. I don’t think hawthorns engine room will be good enough to make him a worthwhile pick, but he does represent value at his price if you were bullish.

Fergus Greene

A seriously hard working and clever player. Ironically there’s a bit of Jack Gunston about him. A mature age player that knows how to position himself and find the goals…I’d be stashing him on the bench and be confident in him ticking over the cash, albeit he may be a slower burn than some other rookies. He’ll have rock solid job security though so this shouldn’t matter too much.

Dylan Moore

Didn’t attend a single centre bounce. This man is a specialist half forward and he’s extremely good at it. Unfortunately for fantasy in a poor hawks side I don’t think it’ll translate to consistent scoring.

#17 Most Relevant | Tom Mitchell

Tom Mitchell was one of the biggest names for the fantasy football community that moved clubs in the offseason. With a return to a lead midfield role at a new club, there is plenty of expectation that we could see some vintage scoring from the former Brownlow Medalist. 

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Mitchell
Age: 29
Club: Collingwood Magpies
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score: 
120 Vs Brisbane (AFLFantasy)
142 Vs Geelong (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
195 Vs GWS Giants | AFLFantasy (2018)
192 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2018)

2022 Average: 
96.3 (AFLFantasy)
96 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $528,600
AFLFantasy Price: $853,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $874,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Have you played any format of fantasy football for more than one season? If that’s the case, then the legacy of Tom Mitchell will be well known to you. Ever since he moved to Hawthorn, ‘Titch’ had been one of the top-scoring prospects we’d ever seen. In his 2017-2019 seasons, we’ll go down in SuperCoach & AFLFantasy folklore for a long time, with averages pushing the edges of 130 for the season.

It wasn’t the most prolific season for Tom, yet despite a significant fall away from his normative statistical dominance as a Hawk, he still posted some elite numbers. He ranked eighth in the AFL for contested possessions and handbells and top twenty in the league for disposals and stoppage clearances.

From his twenty-one games last year, he averaged 96.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. It featured ten tons; for SuperCoach, his average of 96 consisted of nine tons. Across all formats, his scoring dipped below 80 on just two occasions. Some solid tons are scattered across the 2022 season, which isn’t bad for a guy who had only one game all season where he attended 70% of more centre bounces all year.

You don’t have to go back to the 2017-2018 data before his broken leg to find strong scoring from Tom. His 2021 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam season was brilliant in totality but spectacular when you look into the more refined timing. Over the year, he scored nineteen tons, ten of them above 120 and five over 130. He had three scores under 100 all year and nothing dropping below 71. Before his bye round, he averaged 105.1. However, in the final eleven games of the year, he averaged 126 and didn’t let his scores fall below 105. He’s ranked fifth overall for averages and points, with only Jack Steele, Touk Miller, Jarryd Lyons and Jack Macrae.

This scoring pattern is similar in SuperCoach. He ranked eighth for total points and ninth for averages last year. It consisted of seventeen tons; nine were over 120, eight over 130 and a season-high score of 171. Entering into the Hawks round twelve byes, he’d scored just six tons and was going at an average of 105. From round thirteen onwards, he averaged 128.6, and his lowest score was 110.

Ultimately, the scoring he’s done is lately irrelevant. Not because he no longer possesses that capacity but because the variables have changed too drastically with him moving clubs. But what we do know about Mitchell is this. From his debut at Sydney back in 2013 to now, he’s shown that when he’s allowed to be in the midfield and around the ball, he scores at such a high points-per-minute output that he is nearly unmatched. He might never be the ‘Pig’ again that everyone loved, but he doesn’t have to be for his selection to be a masterstroke.

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MY TAKE

There are two schools of thought regarding the fantasy football impact & relevance of Tom Mitchell at Collingwood. The first is that he’s no longer the fantasy football beast he’d been in his early seasons at Hawthorn. The other is that we’ve got a proven top-tier premium at a crazy value. So much needs to be considered and unpacked. At his best, he’s the number one performer, but to do so, he needs to sit within a game style and team structure that allows that.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, Collingwood ranked 12th for total team points scored and 13th in SuperCoach. Specifically, from an individual player perspective, just one listed Magpie in Jack Crisp averaged over 90 for the season for AFLFantasy/Dreamteam. While in SuperCoach, we had three, Scott Pendlebury, Nick Daicos and again Jack Crisp. No current Collingwood player averaged 100 or higher in 2022. That’s not due to a lack of fantasy pedigree but more to do with an AFL system that isn’t fantasy football friendly. It’s similar to what we’ve seen from Richmond for the past five years.

All this data can and does start to create a rather compelling narrative, that being that Collingwood isn’t the most fantasy football-friendly side going around. The key to remember is that Mitchell was specifically recruited to address the club’s clear deficiency in winning contested possessions. Last season, the Magpies ranked 13th for clearances, 14th for contested possessions, and just two players ranked inside the top 75 for centre clearances in the AFL. The Pies have seen an issue and believe they’ve addressed it with Mitchell. They see him as the ticket to a better clearance rate and picking up a stronger share of contested footy.

During the 2020 & 2021 seasons at Hawthorn, Tom attended 74% & 70% of centre bounces. However, last year he dropped to 53%. I expect we’ll see Mitchell have a similar level of centre bounces (70% plus) at Collingwood. But the issue won’t be around his role; the big question is this. Will he get enough of a split between contested and uncontested possesions to make his scoring high enough?

Last year Mitchell ranked 8th for contested possesions per game with 13 but was 34th for uncontested possesions with 16. Compare that to 2021, where he ranked 25th for contested possessions, winning 12, but was first for uncontested possesions with 23. The data trend is similar across all of his career. When Mitchell is a dominant fantasy present, he racks it up more in the uncontested space than in tight. For bigger scores of Tom to pop, he needs a high volume of ball in space, something that the Magpies game style might not be allowed freely.

There is a world where mega scores can happen. But it requires a major change to the regular midfield makeup at Collingwood. Last year Jordan De Goey attended 77% of centre bounces. The next biggest three were Taylor Adams (65%), Scott Pendlebury (63%) and Jack Crisp (59%). It’s a relatively tight four, and for Mitchell to squeeze in, it’ll require a combination of either injuries or a bigger role change of some of these players. Thankfully, there’s a world where this can happen. De Goey has shown dominance as a damaging forward 50 option, while Crisp has spent a major slice of his AFL career across halfback. And while I don’t wish injuries on anyone, Adams has missed about 30% of games in the past two seasons. If a combination of these elements eventuates, I can see a world where he pushes the top 8-10 midfield averages again. He might not reach the 120+ days again, but i don’t think he has to. Anything near the vicinity of 115 is a monsterous win.

At this pricing range, we have significant options. We’ve discussed multiple lof them through the 50 most relevant. Luke Davies-Uniacke, Caleb Serong, Tom Green, Adam Cerra, Jai Newcombe and Chad Warner are within a few grand of his price point. Even former #1 draft pick Lachie Whitfield is in that pricing space. For the Mitchell selection to be deemed a success, he needs to score at a minimum average of 105 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 110 in SuperCoach. I can’t see him going less than his price point, so I don’t think he’ll hurt you if you pick him, but unless he can pop up that average of 15 points per game, he’ll also not burn you if you go against him. Personally, I find it easier to jump onto Mitchell than off him. He’ll always have the ‘fear of missing out’ feel if you ever move off him.

His current ownership stats have him inside the top ten most-owned players in AFLFantasy with 33%, the top twenty in DreamTeam with 36% and the top 30 in SuperCoach with 27%. With ownership that high and some uncertainty that I have that he can hit the scoring levels required to make it, I’m happy to take him on. But I’m not so proud and stubborn to miss him if he’s flying out of the gates. I’m more than prepared to use a corrective trade and go into him if he does show in those first few games the ceiling that made him the fantasy beast we’ve known and loved for years.

DRAFT DECISION

Tom Mitchell has the upside to be an M1 pick, you won’t have to spend that level of capital, but it’s within his scoring potential. If you want to own him, you might have to reach M2, but I would happily let someone else take him there. I feel comfortable taking him at an early M3 space, but that’s because I’m less bullish than others. As a result, I’ll hardly get ‘titch’ falling to a range I’m happy to select him. 

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#36 Most Relevant | Nick Daicos

Nick Daicos gave us one of the most spectacular debut seasons in the history of fantasy football. As he enters into season number two, will he catch the second-year Blues? Or will he continue his pathway to being one of the best players in the AFL and become a premium defender in 2023?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Nick Daicos
Age: 20
Club: Collingwood Magpies
Position: Defender

2022 Highest Score: 
147 Vs Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
163 Vs Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
147 Vs Adelaide | AFLFantasy (2022)
163 Vs Adelaide | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average: 
86.7 (AFLFantasy)
91.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $502,500
AFLFantasy Price: $769,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $787,800

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

 The hype around Nick Daicos debut season was incredible. Even more so than Sam Walsh’s debut year, the expectation that he’d be a fantasy scorer from day one. And he did not disappoint. Winning the rising star, playing all 22 games and elevating himself as a leader at the Magpies. He averaged 26 possessions, five score involvements, four marks, four rebound 50s, three inside 50s and two tackles.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored seven tons, three of them over 115, including his career-high 147 against the Crows. To go with those tons was five additional 80+. His SuperCoach season was even stronger. He scored six tons, four above 120, including 143 & 163. On top of these, he had six more scores over 80.

Often first-year players see a scoring slide as the season goes along. However, that wasn’t the case for Daicos. In his first eleven games, he averaged 80 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 78 in SuperCoach. In his final eleven games, he averaged 93.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102.8 in SuperCoach.

Eventually, Nick will move into the midfield. But I expect his movement to be more gradual this year. The arrival of Tom Mitchell adds further depth to that midfield. Daicos became the general of that backline alongside Darcy Moore. For what the Pies might gain in the midfield by moving him up the ground more, they could lose just as much in their ball movement rebounding out of defence. Current Collingwood track watchers have him training with the defence group and in match simulations playing at half-back and pushing up the ground. That can change as the preseason goes on, but it’s what’s happening now.

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MY TAKE

One of my favourite things to track statistically in fantasy football is trends. They help you to see changes or developments towards something new. The overarching trend of Nick Daicos is that he’s heading towards being one of the most prolific ball winners and ball users we’ve seen in the AFL. From his junior days, under 18 championships, and now to the elite of the AFL, there is no doubt he’ll become a fantasy premium for the better part of the decade. But what does his 2023 season hold for us?

When you look at the trend of what happens to players that eventually become fantasy premiums, there is a common pathway. Year one, the cash cow season. Here they make you money and provide glimpses of the future premium potential. Year Two, the regression. The demands of being in an AFL side take time to physically and mentally adjust. Year Three, the breakout. It starts to click, and the gap between their ceiling and the scoring basement begins to close. Lastly, in year four, the establishment. They become out-and-out premiums.

It’s rare for a player to not just maintain or grow their averages in the second season but to become a premium in their line. And if you start with Nick Daicos, it’s because you believe he will be a premium. Only a few have been able to elevate themselves into premium territory.

In 2011 when listed as a MID/FWD, Nat Fyfe posted up an average of 98.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 108 in SuperCoach Jackson Macrae did it in 2014. He averaged 104 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 100 in SuperCoach. During the 2015 season, Zach Merrett was forward eligible and averaged 90 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 87.8 in SuperCoach. Melbourne premiership hero Clayton Oliver did it in 2017 when he averaged 101 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 111 in SuperCoach. In 2018, former Giant, now Tiger Tim Taranto, did it as a forward he averaged 90 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 88 in SuperCoach. And in 2019, Tim Kelly averaged 96.8 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 103.4 in SuperCoach.

There are a few more, but you see the point. Like any data trend, there are outliers, but it’s on the rare side that the premium leap happens in year #2. It’s not to say Daicos cannot do it, but he’ll need to buck the trend of the normative to do it.

Last year, Daicos was given plenty of space and time to deliver the ball. That combination of his footy IQ, the Magpies defensive structure, and the fact that opposition teams didn’t put huge pressure on him early in the season. But does that change in 2023? Should opposition teams tag a second-year player? He’s certainly worthy of attention, and a trend we saw last year was that opposition sides were choosing to limit the freedom of movement of rebounding defenders. If you owned Jordan Dawson or Jack Sinclair last year, you know the pain it can bring. Who knows if teams will continue this, but it’s something to ponder. Even if he does cop a tag, he’s such a smart footballer I’d back him in quickly to learn how to work through them.

The only format open to the general public and has players ownership available to be viewed is AFLFantasy. While I was aware there’d be plenty of coaches keen on owning Daicos, I was shocked to see how high his ownership was. He is currently in 39.93% of teams. Outside of cash cows, he’s the most selected defender in the game! With ownership that high, especially if it translates across DreamTeam and SuperCoach, I’m very tempted to take him on and go against him. On the flip side, with that high ownership, you’ll be playing catchup quickly if he flies early!

DRAFT DECISION

Preseason hype and draft timing will be the two variables that impact Nick Daicos’ draft ranking. In SuperCoach, based on his 2022 average, he’s ranked 25, which would place him in the range of a D3 selection. But if you want him, I’d be shocked if you got him there. You’ll need to fork out a D2 price for him, and he could start flying off draft boards in round six for the super keen coaches.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s currently ranked by the previous average as the 17th-best defender. That places him as a D2 historical selection. However, I can see coaches reaching up to secure him as a D1 and getting him as early, around rounds four or five.

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#39 Most Relevant | Darcy Cameron

An injury is all it can take to make someone fantasy football relevant. In 2022 Darcy Cameron took his opportunity and became a hugely important selection across the formats. With Brodie Grundy now out of the picture, can Darcy continue his hot run of form and be one of the best selections in our starting squads?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Darcy Cameron
Age: 27
Club: Collingwood Magpies
Position: RUC/FWD

2022 Highest Score: 
133 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy)
130 Vs Fremantle (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
133 Vs Hawthorn | AFLFantasy (2022)
130 Vs Fremantle | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average: 
81.9 (AFLFantasy)
84.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $465,900
AFLFantasy Price: $725,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $743,500

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

There are two sides to the Darcy Cameron story in 2022. First, it’s a story of an opportunity being presented and of that opportunity being maximised. It’s about what happens when players get access to a role they’d never been granted. It’s the story of ‘DC’ playing with Brodie Grundy and then taking the mantle as the #1 ruckman when he goes out injured.

From rounds 2-6, it was a challenging start to the season for Darcy. He had one game where he started as the sub and another where he got subbed out with an alleged rib injury. In these five games, he averaged 12.4% attendance at centre bounces, one hitout, 8.4 possessions, 3.4 marks & one tackle. From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he averaged 47.8 and scored 71. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 46.6 with a top score of 72.

Then a significant change occurred. Brodie Grundy, on Anzac Day, smashed his knee against Essendon ruckman Sam Draper in a ruck contest. As a result, he injured his PCL. While the initial diagnosis was he’d miss up to three months, history now informs us that he’d miss the rest of the 2022 season.

From round seven until the season’s end, Darcy Cameron transitioned into the #1 ruck role and dominated. Then, between rounds 7-23, he saw a drastic spike in his possessions, hitouts, centre bounces, attendances and, most importantly, for us in his fantasy football output.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 92.6, scoring six tons, including a career-high score of 133. To go alongside this, Cameron had an additional four scores over 90. For SuperCoach, he averaged 96.5, eight tons, including 130 and four additional scores over 90. Visually, this is what it looks like.

The story of Darcy Cameron and his fantasy relevance is about more than just DC. It’s a reminder that every season we will see a player undertake a significant role change, and with it will come to a boom in scoring in contrast to the low output for your classic formats. The key is identifying the player that will fill the gap and jumping on quickly to maximize output. For coaches that jumped on super early, it was a move that paid massive dividends in cash generation, points scored and likely in your seasonal rankings. 

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MY TAKE

I’m in a messenger group with a bunch of mates who all play fantasy football. Chances are, you’ve got yourself in a similar setup, maybe even multiple. When I asked this group, ‘who’s picking Darcy Cameron?’ I was met with two very clear but polarising perspectives. Several thought he was the easiest selection of the year; others wanted to avoid selecting him.

There are several reasons why coaches should be considering him. The first is that for his price, there are zero question marks around his role for the side. He will be the #1 ruck. You don’t let Brodie Grundy leave without that confidence. Recruit Dan McStay will play the mobile tall forward and, as we saw at Brisbane, can play some relief ruck minutes.

Second is the potential return on investment. He’s priced approximately ten points per game beneath what was delivered last year past the role change. As a ruckman, he averaged 92 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. If you put that average alongside our current forwards, he’d be ranked fifth for average and third for rucks. He averaged 96 in SuperCoach; by the average contrast, he’d be placed fifth for forwards and tenth for rucks. So even without improving his scoring, but just holding what he did, he is right in the top groups of both rucks and forwards. Third, speaking of DPP, it’s the extra flexibility his RUC/FWD status creates. Just ask coaches that had Tim English last year. It enabled you to loophole scores, cover donuts and even save a trade.

All of these reasons sound wonderful and valid. And, for the most part, they are. However, what I believe is running as the undercurrent for people considering Cameron is one big unspoken issue. That when it comes to the ruck division, plenty of coaches have yet to learn what to expect will happen or even know what they want to do. A ‘set & forget’ approach had been the normative tactic for so long. But with moves in the offseason, all of Brodie Grundy, Max Gawn and even Sean Darcy now have ruck-share concerns.

Beyond Tim English, there seems no consensus that any ruck is ‘safe’ to pay up to own. Rowan Marshall should also be in that same bracket, but I empathise with people’s hesitation. I don’t have these doubts. The uncertainty around the ruck division creates an added appeal to Cameron. Selecting him allows you to look at the line, flip him forward or trade him to the premium on either the ruck or forward line of your choosing.

But it’s for these same reasons people want to avoid Cameron. They want to avoid getting stuck with a ruck or forward that might be anywhere from 10-15 points per game beneath the premium benchmarks in either the ruck or forward line.

Will his scoring range be enough? Even if he maintains his scoring rate from 2022? Who’s to say that our ruck division cannot yet again return to multiple 105+ options? I can see a world where Grundy & Gawm complement each other, not eat into each other’s scoring. The same with Darcy & Jackson.

Last year were got elite premium forwards as mid-season DPP gains. Bailey Smith, Luke Parker and Marcus Bontempelli. Who’s to say in 2023, we don’t get a similar tier of options? Factoring in these variables is an exciting challenge in the game.

Our forward division is already stacked for premiums up the top, value selection in the middle and plenty of cows. While the ruck might be thin at the range or below Cameron, there are options. For example, Scott Lycett is cheaper in all formats and has had three 80+ seasons in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & three 90+ in SuperCoach. So as good as Cameron might be at his price point, he’s not the only consideration.

Being the number one ruckman in an AFL side does take a toll on you. And last year, it did with Cameron. As good as he started in the role, his scoring did start to slide across the format. In the final eight games of the year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged just 79 and went at 82 in SuperCoach.

He should hold or improve his fitness to play out the season. But equally, oppositions could also have more data and plans to combat him. Nothing is ever certain in fantasy footy.

Darcy is a great player to consider this pre-season because both sides of the argument of holding or fading hold weight. Both feel they are easy decisions and that the other side is overthinking the situation. So what he ends up delivering in the coming season is one of the season’s most interesting outcomes.

DRAFT DECISION

One of the hardest players to rank in 2023 is Darcy Cameron. Do people rank and draft him based on a particular positional status? Or does his DPP increase his ranking range? Game formats, league sizes and the number of participants will ultimately inform where he gets picked.

In SuperCoach, I can see her going in the range of an F2, which is around the sixth round. While in AFLFantasy, he’ll be an F1 for many and likely go a round or so earlier.

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Trade Review | Tom Mitchell


Career High SuperCoach Score: 192 Vs Carlton (2018)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 195 Vs GWS Giants (2018)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 129 (2018)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 129.1 (2018)

Impact on new club

During the trade period, the club had four key goals to meet. First, secure a versatile tall defender; this was achieved through Billy Frampton. Bolster the forward line with a small and a tall. The arrival of Dan McStay and Ian Hill ensured those goals were met. The last piece of the trade puzzle was to secure an inside midfielder who excels in winning contested footy. That need has been well and truly addressed with Tom Mithcell.

At his peak, Mitchell is a strong clearance and contested ball winner. In 2021 alone, he ranked inside the top 50 players in the AFL for contested possessions, centre clearances and stoppage clearances.

His arrival will immediately take the clubs dependency off Taylor Adams and Jordan De Goey. Both are the only actively listed Magpies players that averaged over two centre clearances and two stoppage clearances a game. As a result, they become a much deeper and more potent team with Mitchell in the midfield.

However, he isn’t just a one-trick inside midfield pony; he’s got other elite skills. For example, in 2021, he ranked first in the league for uncontested possessions. That’s proof that his ability to create space through workrate is elite.

Impact on the old club

It’s hard not to be fearful for the Hawthorn Football club in 2023. The club has allowed two of their best ball winners and accumulators to walk out the door for effectively not much compensation. With no Tom Mitchell or Jaeger O’Meara, the midfield leadership now clearly lands on Jai Newcombe. Based on the end of 2022, alongside him should be Dylan Moore. The crafty forward showed some midfield chops and was regulalrly attending over 60% of centre bounces in the final eight weeks of the season. The other obvious regular in the midfield will be Josh Ward. He showcased why he was so highly rated as a junior and is showing all the signs of fulfilling his potential

It’s after these three that the questions and unknowns emerge. Can and will James Worpel get back to being an AFL level midfielder? Will the experiment in the midfield of Connor Nash continue? Does the lack of leadership in the midfield core mean that Chad Wingard is permanently deployed there? Or will the Hawks fully invest major minutes into the kids of Connor Macdonald and Finn Maginness? Then of course, there’s whoever they land at the draft this year. The club will be a big preseason watch. Because they might provide some fantasy relevance prospects.

Fantasy Summary

There are two schools of thought regarding the fantasy football impact & relevance of Tom Mitchell at Collingwood. The first is that he’s no longer the fantasy football beast he’d been in his early seasons at Hawthorn.

The concern isn’t due to a scoring dip of approximately 20 points per game from the 2021 to 2022 season. Instead, part of that dip can be accredited to him seeing a substantial slide in centre bounce attendance. Rather it’s more to do with the Collingwood game style and subsequent fantasy football relevance.

Last year the Magpies ranked 14th in the league for disposals and 17th for marks. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, they ranked 12th for total team points scored and 13th in SuperCoach. Specifically, from an individual player perspective, just one listed Magpie in Jack Crisp averaged over 90 for the season. While in SuperCoach, it was three, Scott Pendlebury, Nick Daicos and again Jack Crisp.

No current Collingwood player averaged 100 or higher in 2022. That’s not due to a lack of fantasy pedigree but more to do with an AFL system that isn’t fantasy football friendly. It’s similar to what we’ve seen from Richmond for the past five years.

All this data can and does start to create a rather compelling narrative, but the key to remember is that Mitchell was specifically recruited to address the clubs clear deficiency in winning contested possessions. Last season, the Magpies ranked 13th for clearances, 14th for contested possessions, and just two players ranked inside the top 75 for centre clearances in the AFL. So the Pies have seen an issue and believe they’ve addressed it with Mitchell.

From 2017-2021 ‘Titch’ was among the most beloved and selected players across all game forms. In this five year window, he frequently averaged 115+ and, for several seasons, was a permanently fixed captain selection. Not only did he score well in these years, but he featured in the top 25 in the competition for disposals and was a fixture among the best contested ball winners in the game.

Whenever there are two extreme viewpoints among a player’s potential fantasy output, I tend to lean towards the truth being somewhere in the middle. Is he washed and destined to be a 90s guy? I don’t believe so. Is he destined to be back as the 120 monsters? Statistically unlikely. But can he be a consistent performer around 105-110? I believe so.

If that’s the case, he’s a serious preseason consideration, if not a genuine value premium to start the season.

Trade Review | Billy Frampton


Career High SuperCoach Score: 124 Vs Western Bulldogs (2022)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 98 Vs Western Bulldogs (2022)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 82.3 (2022)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 69.5 (2022)

Impact on new club

I think two scenarios are at play here. And while both have merit, I believe one is more likely than the other.

Scenario one, Billy Frampton, has been acquired as a direct replacement for the retiring Jordan Roughead. In this scenario, he becomes the versatile key tall who can play the lockdown tall role and allow the likes of Jeremy Howe, Darcy Moore and even Nathan Murphy to become the interceptors.

Scenario Two. Frampton has been targeted to the Pies because he offers something that many 201 cm players cannot offer. That is the ”all ground versatility.” He provides squad depth in the key defensive, forward, and ruck posts.

I’m of the firm belief that scenario one is a more likely one. With Murphy, Moore and Howe down back, the Pies have all the defensive height covered, with Jeremy coming in the smallest at 190cm.

With Billy on the squad, he becomes instantly the ”first man up” should an injury or suspension come across any line. I think he’s looked his most comfortable as a defender, but to have the level of versatility he offers would certainly be the most appealing part of his addition to the Magpies squad.

Impact on the old club

In 2022 Billy Frampton played six games for the Crows as a key position/intercepting defender. He spent the remainder of the season in the SANFL. The departure of Billy to the Magpies largely won’t hurt the club’s ‘best 22’ given that Jordan Butts, Nick Murray & Tom Doedee are holding the talls stocks.

What his absence means is a slightly weakened depth for the Crows. His ability to play as a tall across the forward, ruck and backlines makes Billy a valuable commodity over the years. Up front, the Crows forward depth is stacked with Elliot Himmelberg & Lachie Gollant waiting in the wings.

The club might hurt a little because they have a relatively thin depth in the rucks beyond Kieran Strachan. While down back, further pressure lands on the untried James Borlase and Fisher McAsey. So don’t be surprised to see the Crows use at least one of their two draft selections on a tall prospect.

Fantasy Summary

If you play across all fantasy football formats, you’d be familiar with the notion that certain players can perform better or worse depending on several factors. Billy Frampton’s case is more relevant in SuperCoach than either of AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.

The fact that he averaged 82.3 in SC as opposed to 69.5 in AF/DT is a clear indicator of that. The primary reason is that his weapon, intercept marking, is points weighted more favourably in SuperCoach.

Billy has moved to Collingwood on the expectation that he’s more likely to see regular AFL time as a Magpie rather than as an Adelaide Crow. I don’t believe he’s a ‘lock’ inside the best 22, but he should be pressing for regular game time.

For that reason, I’d feel comfortable if you play a drafting format that uses SuperCoach or another customised scoring; he could be a genuine late option. His round six score of 124 last season is a testament to his ability to perform. If it were a sensationally deep pool, I’d only consider him in the other formats for a draft version of the game. Otherwise, I’d wait and see if he’s worth grabbing off the player pool early.

Trade Review | Dan McStay


Career High SuperCoach Score: 125 Vs Gold Coast (2021)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 111 Vs Richmond (2022)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 75.7 (2021)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 65.3 (2021)

Impact on new club

The recruitment of Dan McStay is a fascinating addition to the Collingwood forward line. Dan’s a versatile tall who can impact the game through what he does as a tall marking forward and the option that creates space for his team’s medium and small forwards.

You could argue that Brisbane and Collingwood’s small to medium forwards are comparable. But the key position posts are not. So while we should still see the likes of Jamie Elliott thrive, the lack of dominant talls might become more noticeable and highlight the work of McStay on the side. That could be for better or for worse. As good as Brody Mihocek has been, he’s not Hipwood or Daniher.

It will be interesting to watch over the preseason Collingwood structure up this forward line in 2023. Do they continue to play Mason Cox off the bench? Or will Dan become the relief ruckman/second tall forward? If he moves into the second tall forward and relief ruck role, we might see a more versatile and potent Collingwood forward line. However, we also might see less scoreboard impact as McStay becomes the number two target and gets better opposition defenders marking him. Nevertheless, I think he’s a nice addition to the Collingwood Football Club structural perspective.

Impact on the old club

The role that Dan McStay had been playing for the club was as a third tall forward. His job was to be a competing tall forward but to create important space and separation. He was sometimes required to pinch-hit for moments in the ruck, especially in the later rounds of the year.

McStay allowed others like Charlie Cameron, Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Zac Bailey to get dangerous at his best.

His departure in isolation could’ve created a need to restructure the lineup; however, with the impending arrival of Jack Gunston later in the trade period, the Lions will have arguably upgraded in this space.

Fantasy Summary

There were a handful of games in 2022 where Dan McStay scored 90+. The most recognisable was in the elimination final against Richmond, where he was forced to play predominantly as a ruckman. This game aside, he still had multiple matches where he scored 90+. But with every score that looks promising, an equally low score in the 40s or 50s would be present. That’s why instead of regularly averaging in the mid ’70s, he’s closer to a low 60s.

Even under a new system and structure, McStay isn’t someone you should consider in salary cap formats at Collingwood, even if he starts to pick up the secondary ruck role. In drafts, he’ll only become a target to consider IF you are in either a deep league or if certain customizations have been activated. Beyond that, he’s a pass there too.

Trade Review | Ian ‘Bobby’ Hill


Career High SuperCoach Score: 59.4 (2020)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 50.2 (2019)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 106 Vs Carlton (2020)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 79 Vs West Coast (2021)

Impact on new club

One of the fascinating forward structures in the AFL is how the Collingwood Football Club has and looks likely to continue to structure up. It’s clear that Jamie Elliott is the match winner; they’ve got some handy small targets around him in McCreery, Ginnivan and Mihocheck.

The Magpies don’t lack small forward options, but Ian ‘Bobby’ Hill adds some high end pace, clear skills, and he generally makes excellent decisions with the ball in hand. He’ll be an excellent addition to the Magpies forward structure.

It wouldn’t surprise me if, over time, the club gave him some opportunities for a few midfield minutes. However, his turn of speed and ability to manoeuvre out of challenging situations might be worth giving him a centre bounce in each quarter too.

Impact on the old club

His departure has opened the door for the club to target and successfully get Toby Bedford of Melbourne to commit to the club at the time of writing. Over the coming days, Melbourne and GWS will negotiate a trade.

Should Bedford arrive, then the departure of Bobby will barely be noticed.

Fantasy Summary

Rarely do players who spend most of their time inside the forward 50 become relevant fantasy football prospects. Of course, there are always exceptions, historically players like Steve Johnson or Nick Riewoldt. But for the most part, they aren’t relevant options in the salary cap formats of the game.

Over his four seasons in the AFL system, he’s yet to have a season where he’s averaged over 60. So it’ll take something significant to change at Collingwood for him to be someone to consider even late in drafts.

A safe ‘pass’ unless we see a significant spike in midfield minutes during the preseason.

#17 Most Relevant | Jack Crisp

Since 2015 when Jack Crisp joined Collingwood, he hasn’t missed a game! Seven seasons of elite durability. To go with it, he’s coming off the back of his best-ever fantasy footy season. 2022 has already been forecast as a year that will challenge even the most astute fantasy coach; perhaps Crisp is the consistent piece your team needs to help you thrive.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jack Crisp
Age: 28
Club: Collingwood Magpies
Position: MID/DEF

2021 Highest Score: 
141 Vs Port Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
143 Vs West Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
147 Vs Geelong | AFLFantasy (2018)
153 Vs Richmond | SuperCoach (2018)

2021 Average: 
101.7 (AFLFantasy)
104.9 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $571,000
AFLFantasy Price: $854,00
AFLDreamTeam Price: $867,800

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Jack Crisp has become a crucial member of the Pies team since joining the club back in 2014 as part of the Dayne Beams trade. Over the past seven seasons, he’s been the Mr Fix It of the club covering roles from all three portions of the ground. His primary strengths are his ability to apply defensive pressure on the ground, to defensively beat his man one-on-one and then distribute the ball with his booming left foot.

In 2021 Crisp had a mixture of roles, in the front half of the season, he was a regular staple of the centre bounce rotations, while as the season went on floated back towards his more traditional defensive role. Over the year he attended 40% of centre bounces, and he was someone who before the positions were announced in December was losing defensive status. Thankfully, the boffins at champion data have let him retain this status while also adding the midfield eligibility allowing immediate in-season flexibility to go with his high durability and strong scoring capacities.

It was a record-breaking season from Crisp in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. He is the number one ranked defender by total points and ranked second by averages. His average of 101.7 was constructed through thirteen tons, four of these above 120 and an additional four scores between 90-99.

The SuperCoach season from Crisp was even stronger. His average of 104.9 has him ranked as the sixth-best backman by averages, but by total points, he’s the #2 option available. He’s less than 50 points shy of Daniel Rich with the most points scored of available defenders. Over the year he scored thirteen tons, five of them over 120 and an additional three scores over 90. His lowest score of the season was 79. To have that level of the scoring basement in any line, let alone defenders is elite!

As an interesting aside, in the first portion of the year his centre bounce attendances especially pre bye were more pronounced. While they were still there afterwards, he clearly spent more time in the defensive fifty roles. The reason I bring this up is before the bye from his thirteen games he averaged 100 across the formats. However, in the nine matches post-bye he averaged 103.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 112 in SuperCoach. Normally being in the midfield is a good thing for a scoring increase. But based on the numbers, perhaps Crisp is better when his time is a little more split.

While 2021 was a breakout season for Crisp, he’s had multiple seasons of strong scoring

During the 2020 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he posted two tons, plus had four additional scores over 80. Remember that in shortened quarters last season that 80 was the new 100. By the end of the year, he ranked third among defenders for total points and sixth for averages. It was a strong season from Crisp in SuperCoach. He posted 8 tons, 3 of them were above 120 and had an additional 4 scores over 90. On top of his scoring heights, he barely burnt coaches with a poor score. Just one all season did his scoring drop under 60. By the end of the year in that format, he ranked 7th among all defenders for total points and 11th for averages.

Since being a Magpie his seasonal averages have been fantastic. In SuperCoach he’s delivered 89, 85, 82, 95, 88, 99 & 104.9 . While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam it’s 91, 84, 88 87, 97, 76 (95 adjusted average.) & 101.7. However, the cream on the op of all his scoring is the flawless gaps in his availability. Since joining the Magpies back in 2015 he’s had immaculate durability. He hasn’t missed a match for seven years playing 163 consecutive matches. The closest to him is Clayton Oliver with 111. when you pick Crispy, you get 22 games and a worry free defensive selection. By owning him it removes one headache from your season.

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MY TAKE

Jack Crisp has the scoring to match it with the best, but his durability sets him apart. It’s incredibly rare to have this level of availability. How many times have you had to make a trade due to an injury? For example, Tom Stewart played 20 games, Dyson Heppell played 18. While it was, Lachie Whitfield and Shannon Hurn play played just 15. Using bench cover regularly for premiums missing multiple games is one of the ways you slide your scoring quickly. Even worse is regularly tradings premiums out with injuries. Historically with Crisp, neither of these happen. When you pick Jack, you get 22 weeks of him.

Go back and look at those averages; he’s played every game and has the clear top availability of any premium defender. While this could change entering this year, it should give potential owners high confidence that when you pick him as a premium, you’re getting 22 games from him.

New Collingwood coach Craig McRae has spoken about a change in the midfield. Most notably, Scott Pendlebury will have his fair share of time coming off the halfback line. In the same article, Crisp clarified his role as a rotation between the backline and a midfielder.

2021 has given coaches a bounty of solid premium defenders, many with a case to suggest they’ve still got. I think we’ve got some brilliant premiums, all with upside. Aaron Hall had the best ceiling frequency of any defender in the game; as discussed earlier this preseason here, post role change, he was unstoppable and still offers value. If the departure of Jordan Dawson means a rebound of scoring for Jake Lloyd, then his price point is irresistible. Lachie Whitfield is one of the best players in the game. In almost every round he’s capable of scoring 180’s. Jordan Ridley, Dyson Heppell, Jordan Dawson and Jayden Short have all been covered through this series. All have compelling stories of how the scoring can improve significantly. The same cannot be said for Jack Crisp. Arguably he’s priced at his maximum output.

In 2022 I honestly can’t advocate for coaches to start with more than three defensive premiums. The above options present the greater upside in scoring based on price. So as good as he is, I can’t select him over some of these names at his price.

But if Crisp is ranked higher than these names, what makes him more relevant? Great question. Remember, success in salary cap formats is based on the timing of trades. With Jack, don’t buy high; buy low. And given his historical scoring and durability, he is a perfect early season upgrade target.

DRAFT DECISION

Every coach drafts with a differing mindset. Some value scoring ceiling capacity. Other coaches highest priority is to have players with minimal scoring deviation. While others, the greatest weapon is the durability and availability of games. None are wrong, all have merit, but all are different and mean specific markers trigger different guys to get picked differently.

With Jack Crisp, he won’t be one of the first few defenders taken, and I’d be shocked if he went inside the top selections overall. But I suspect he’ll become a popular pick by round three.

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