#50 Most Relevant | Connor Macdonald

Read Time:7 Minute, 15 Second

Happy New Year, and welcome back to the 50 most relevant!
Kicking off the annual countdown is one of my favourites in Connor Macdonald. For some, he’s a name you’ve never considered; for others, he’s someone they wish we didn’t cover. Either way, the cat is out of the bag! Let’s leap into the start of the 2024 50 most relevant.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Experiencing the thrill of identifying a fantasy football gem that few others spot and then seeing your insight validated is unparalleled. In 2024, Connor Macdonald of Hawthorn could very well be that breakout forward of the season.

At 20 years old, Macdonald shows promise as a potential long-term midfielder for the Hawks, displaying a commendable balance between offensive and defensive play. Known for his dynamic style, he effectively propels the ball into the forward 50 and is pivotal in transitional plays. Although drafted as a midfielder, he has found his footing in the forward line, contributing significantly to the new, youthful Hawthorn lineup.

Chris Newman, formerly coaching with Hawthorn in 2023 and now back with Richmond, praised Macdonald’s versatility in the club’s season review. He noted Macdonald’s exceptional runs, stamina, and ability to adapt to multiple positions – from midfield to wing – highlighting his significant growth in just his second year.

When scouting for players poised to ascend to the next level, it’s essential to spot subtle indicators of a potential surge in scoring. Macdonald showed several such signs throughout 2023. For instance, in round thirteen against Brisbane, he amassed 28 disposals, 3 marks, 2 goals, and scored 91 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 113 in SuperCoach.

Again, in round twenty-one, with 18 disposals, 9 marks, 3 tackles, he exceeded 90 points across all formats. Two weeks later, he tallied 104 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 95 in SuperCoach with 19 disposals, 8 marks, 4 tackles, and 2 goals. These performances highlight his ability to score well across multiple statistical categories. Imagine his heights with consistent, combined efforts in these areas.

Macdonald’s scoring improved as the 2023 season progressed, and his consistency stabilized. From an average of 67.8 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 61.4 in SuperCoach over the first five games, he jumped to an average of 86.6 and 82, respectively, in the final five matches.

While it’s risky to emphasise this trend too much, it underscores his potential for significant value in a forward line lacking top-tier premiums. Based on his performance in the last five games, he could offer an additional 16 points per game in AFLFantasy and potentially rank in the top 10 forwards based on average. In SuperCoach, this translates to a 19-point-per-game upside, positioning him well within the top 20 forward averages.

However, one should cautiously interpret these statistics. The intent here is to emphasize two points: the scarcity of elite forwards across formats and how Macdonald’s late-season form, albeit not the highest scoring range, makes him an increasingly relevant choice. Macdonald achieved these scores without significant time in the Hawks’ midfield. As a draftee known for his inside midfield capabilities, he attended more than 10% of centre bounces in only one game all season.

Hawthorn’s tight midfield rotations last year suggest a need for more players to step up alongside Will Day and Jai Newcombe. The team’s focus on developing Macdonald’s versatility is evident, enhancing his skills as a winger/forward in 2023, which could catalyze his move into a more rounded footballer.

His potential was not just a glimpse in 2023 but evident during his draft year. In the NAB league, he averaged 30 touches, seven marks, and five tackles per game, translating to an AFLFantasy average of 121 points. Scouts and draft watchers recognized him as a high-accumulating, stoppage-dominant player.

Macdonald’s fantasy pedigree, evident from his junior days and his growth in the AFL, positions him as a legitimate choice for your AFL Fantasy/DreamTeam and SuperCoach sides as he enters his third season.

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MY TAKE

As the 2024 AFL Fantasy, DreamTeam and SuperCoach season approaches, coaches face a unique challenge in the forward line. This year, the absence of forwards with high averages presents an opportunity to think outside the box, and Connor Macdonald emerges as a potential game-changer in this new landscape.

Navigating through the scarcity of high-averaging forwards, Macdonald stands out. His midrange positioning in a landscape devoid of the usual high-scoring stalwarts makes him a beacon of value. In a season where average scores are the norm, Macdonald’s potential to outperform his peers shines even brighter.

Flexibility is key, and Macdonald embodies this. As a mid-priced forward, he’s not just a player but a tactical asset. The ideal is he obviously becomes a premium forward, and as possible as that is, that’s not the only avenue to success. He can easily be upgraded to a premium player if he maintains a solid average up until the Hawks round 15 bye. This versatility makes Macdonald a vital component in any strategic fantasy plan.

Historical trends in AFL Fantasy/DreamTeam and SuperCoach show that mid-priced forwards can offer significant returns both as quick money makers or as season-long premiums. Players like Jack Ziebell, Aaron Hall, Darcy Macpherson and Taylor Walker have been valuable in early rounds in past seasons.

Macdonald not only holds the promise of strong early-season performance, making him a smart investment, but with a simple single trade, it can be used as a pathway to the stepping stone, which is firing without having to amend your squad’s structure.

The probable lowered average scores among forwards this season mean Macdonald doesn’t need to reach astronomical heights to succeed. This lower threshold for success enhances his appeal, transforming him, now an average of 85 over the opening half dozen to dozen games is arguably a gigantic success.

There’s also exciting potential for Connor in terms of role expansion. Everyone in the preseason is always set for #MoreMidfieldTime, but should the rumours of him gaining more midfield time eventuate, then he could significantly increase his scoring potential. Remember, last year he barely cracked the Hawks midfield. Imagine the upside should he get even a consistent run of 15-25% CBA’s per game.

Each season requires a different strategy, and while last year’s focus was on premium forwards, this year’s winning formula seems to lie in identifying high-value players inside the forward line. Macdonald, with his current pricing and potential, fits perfectly into this strategy and allows multiple pathways for owners to pursue depending on his scoring.

Pre-season analysis is crucial. Monitoring Macdonald’s role and performance in the pre-season can provide early insights into his potential for a breakout year. These indicators can offer a significant edge in fantasy leagues.

Connor Macdonald represents more than just a player; he’s a strategic choice in a year where identifying high-value players is crucial. His potential for consistent performance, coupled with the unique dynamics of the 2024 season, makes him an essential consideration for any coach looking to gain an edge. In a landscape where finding value is key, Macdonald might just be the piece that completes your winning fantasy puzzle.

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DRAFT DECISION

Connor Macdonald presents as an intriguing prospect in drafts, likely to be picked as an F4, yet he harbours the potential to deliver F2-level performances. This positioning offers a tantalizing upside with little to no discernable downside.

Macdonald’s current trajectory’s worst-case scenario seems to be maintaining his existing average throughout the coming year. Should this occur, it still leaves him as a valuable asset, albeit one that might eventually find his way back to the waiver wire. However, his demonstrated ability to enhance his game and the lack of risk in selecting him make Macdonald an astute pick, especially for coaches looking to capitalize on the value and upside in their lineup.

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2024 AFLFantasy, SuperCoach & DreamTeam Possible Positional Changes

Read Time:10 Minute, 57 Second

Unlock AFL Fantasy & SuperCoach Success in 2024 with our positional Insights! Explore the potential positional changes for the coming season and optimize your fantasy football strategy from the Coaches Panel. Don’t miss out on the winning edge!

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Maintain Defender Status

Like every season, we’ll lose a couple of good top-end premium options, but we still retain some strong ones. Given their role for their teams deep inside defensive 50, I don’t think anyone would be shocked to see Tom Stewart, James Sicily, Luke Ryan, Nic Newman, and Dan Houston maintain pure defensive status. All found themselves amongst the top dozen options across some formats last year, and you can build a compelling case they’ll all be there again this coming year.

Last year, Harry Sheezel, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Lachie Ash, Lachie Whitfield and Jason Johannisen were among several players who all picked up defensive status during the 2023 season. These five had DPP last year, but I have them all as pure defenders in my forecast for the coming season.

Some pockets of the SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam community have Nick Daicos dropping his DEF/MID status and being just a midfielder, given his increasing midfield time as the year went on. While I can see a time coming (maybe as soon as 2025) when he is an exclusive midfielder, I’ve got some confidence he’ll be available as a DEF/MID heading into this coming season.

I’ve even seen the same pockets of the community suggest that because Hayden Young did move into the Fremantle midfield late in the year, he’ll not maintain his defensive status. But there’s zero chance of that happening; he only spent five games of his 20+ last year in the midfield. It shouldn’t even be enough for him to get DPP; I see that midfield data is not enough to create a DEF/MID, which is at ‘worst’ what he’ll be.

Before we move off the defenders that could maintain this status, it’s important to touch on Jack Sinclair. The St Kilda speedster did pick up his midfield role in 2023 in contrast to the seasons prior, but while some have him touch & go to maintain defensive eligibility, I’m confident he’ll retain it. The main factor is that he had only seven games where he attended over 40% of centre bounces, and just four were above 50%. Yes, he did spend time starting across the wings; while it won’t shock me if he did lose defensive status, I’ve got him heading into 2024 a DEF/MID.

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Gain Defender Status

At first glance, it may not feel relevant, but the new Kangaroo Zac Fisher could be a sneaky option for draft formats and in classic. The former Blue found his feet across half back in the back half of 2023 and posted some more than handy scores. There’ll be some value to be had should he get a comparable role at his new club.

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Lose Defender or Forward Status | MID Only

Many of the previous season’s topline forward eligible options lose this position yearly and become midfielders only. Heading into 2024, it’ll be no different. Unsurprisingly, last year’s best options in our forward lines will all lose DPP and be solely available as a midfielder. Josh Dunkley, Tim Taranto, Errol Gulden, Zak Butters, Connor Rozee & Zak Butters will lead the candidates of former MID/FWD’s heading into the midfield. Some might hold a vague hope that some retain DPP, but the likelihood of that happening is as likely as Christmas Day being cancelled worldwide this year.

There will likely be plenty of others like Jason Horne-Francis that fall away from MID/FWD status into MID. Still, those above six will be the big names that the SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam community will look at in classic.

The upside is you can genuinely build a compelling narrative that they all could still be relevant as a pure midfielder. They all showed they could score in the realms of the best fantasy midfielders in the game; the only difference beyond positional availability is them being considerably less owned than what they were in 2023.

I’m on the fence about what happens with Sam Flanders. But I think his heavy midfield role towards the end of the year might just cost him DPP. If he holds MID/FWD status I can see a world where his preseason hype hits fever pitch.

We’ll also see a few defenders drop out of this status and move purely into the midfield. Adelaide Crows captain Jordan Dawson will lead this crop. He ended last year with an average of attending 70% centre bounces, but from a SuperCoach & AFLFantasy perspective, he would still be someone highly desirable even as a midfielder. He ended last year ranked 4th across all formats for total points, so moving from being a DEF/MID into a straight MID shouldn’t mean his conversation as a relevant option falls away too far.

You can throw Will Day into the mix as a lock for midfield status next year. The rising star Hawk was a breakout star for us last year, but his heavy midfield role will see him lose defensive status. Sam Docherty spent too much time across the wing and through centre bounces to retain his defender status. Should this happen, we’ll see his value in drafts bottom out from the early rounds and make him lowly owned in classic. If he does lose it, he’d certainly be worth keeping an eye on for an in-season DPP allocation. I’m not as convinced, but Angus Brayshaw loses his DEF/MID status to become a midfielder again. I hope I’m wrong, but those midfield numbers kept growing as the year went on.

Much like in the forward line, the pain might be felt in the depth of keeper leagues with guys that became options to play on the field in the backline and are now just playable as midfielders. Chayce Jones, Reuben Ginbey, Tom Atkins and possibly even Darcy Wilmot, who spent plenty of time across the wings for the Lions.

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Maintain Forward Status

The top of the tree for our forward lines will be clipped, but that’s an annual occurrence. The good news is we’ll still have plenty of potentially viable scoring prospects without unpacking who might pick up forward status.

Recently, I posted a video about the new Port Adelaide ruck Ivan Soldo on our YouTube channel. Within it, I discussed the potential scoring upside he might have as the #1 ruck at the Pear, but his split of ruck and forward time last season should help him maintain RUC/FWD. Should he win the ruck battle against Jordan Sweet and hold DPP, then Soldo is a potential topline candidate. Last year, in the games he played without Toby Nankervis, he averaged 92 in AFLFantasy and 105 in SuperCoach. If he can deliver that over a full season, he needs to be looked at regardless of our forward player gains.

Speaking of potential RUC/FWD options, I still have Fremantle’s Luke Jackson maintaining this status. Some will say he only scored well when solo ruck, but that is false. There’s enough scoring upside that for draft formats, at minimum, he could provide some significant value based on the drafting position.

Isaac Henney, Toby Greene, Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton will maintain their forward eligibility. They might not ever be the top 6-10 forwards in classic, but for drafts, they’ll all play valuable roles in how we tier out this area of the ground.

During last season, Western Bulldogs pair Bailey Smith and Jackson Macrae both picked up forward status, and I’m forecasting they walk into 2024 with MID/FWD status remaining intact. The positive here is the potential for significant value. Just 12 months ago, both were coming into a new season as viable starting squad options and seen with some value baked into their price. This upside is even greater after an underwhelming season. Should one or both of these Dogs pick up the previously held midfield minutes, they both have the potential to be the top-scoring forwards across the formats.

I fully expect the new Sydney Swan Taylor Adams to keep the forward status entering into 2024 that he picked up last season. The former Magpie was squeezed out of the midfield rotation for large portions of last year. While it impacted his fantasy output in 2023, it will provide significant value at his price point alongside being forward eligible. If he can get through the coming preseason fit, he should be a key part of the Sydney midfield mix and could be one of the most highly-owned fantasy forwards entering round one.

Nobody will be shocked to see it, but I’ve got Adelaide’s Josh Rachele as a forward this coming year and firmly on my breakout radar. As a second-year player, he averaged 89 in AFLFantasy and 86 in SuperCoach in the opening seven rounds of last year. As the year went on, his midfield minutes and scoring started slowing, but it has provided moments where fantasy coaches can see a pathway forward to him scoring well. Monitor his preseason cause if Josh gets that midfield opportunity again, he could come out of the gate swinging.

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Gain Forward Status

Every year, we lose a bunch of topline forward premiums, and yet we always find a way in our starting squads to at least have that listed populated with a couple of potential replacements. Don’t be surprised if Christian Petracca jags DPP and is available as a MID/FWD in 2024. Heading into the AFL finals, he was right on the ledge of the 35% forward threshold, according to Fantasy Freko. Based on his role in Melbourne’s games, there appears to be no significant push movement. Either way, it’ll be a small percentage gap that means he either maintains his midfield status or becomes a MID/FWD. I think he will sneak over the line and enter the year as the top forward option.

How much value does Champion Data place on Brodie Grundy’s role in the VFL compared to AFL? If it’s purely just the AFL, of the seventeen games he played last year, only three were without Max Gawn, and it’s only when Gawn wasn’t playing that he attended over 55% CBA’s in a single match. I mention that percentage rate because that’s what he’s sitting at for a season summary. If it’s just pure AFL-level data, then he’s right in consideration for gaining DPP and being a RUC/FWD. However, if the VFL data where he played a heavy ruck role is factored in, he will likely be a forward. Plenty will still have Brodie locked into their starting squad conversation regardless of positional gains.

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2023 Draft Class

With the 2023 AFL draft officially over, we’re just weeks away from the announced positions for the coming seasons. Here are my projections of the positions we might see from some of the most relevant prospects.

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#1 Most Relevant | Josh Dunkley

Read Time:7 Minute, 48 Second

After a failed attempt to leave the Bulldogs a few seasons ago, Josh Dunkley got his wish and found his way to a footballing life outside the kennel. As a Lion, I believe he’s the most relevant player in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam for 2023.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Josh Dunkley
Age: 26
Club: Brisbane Lions
Position: Midfield/Forward

2022 Highest Score:
139 Vs West Coast (AFLFantasy)
155 Vs Fremantle (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
189 Vs Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2019)
202 Vs Melbourne | SuperCoach (2019)

2022 Average:
108.8 (AFLFantasy)
108.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $596,400
AFLFantasy Price: $963,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $987,400

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Josh Dunkley is one of the most enjoyable players to own in fantasy footy. The reason is he finds a way to score through every column imaginable. In reality, he is one of the most well-rounded midfielders in the game. Dunks can win the contested ball, applies high defensive pressure, is a strong tackler, gets into space to win the uncontested ball and is a super overhead mark for his size.

Even though Dunks is now on a new side and within a new structure, his scoring past can give us an insight into his potential scoring future. Last season he scored eighteen AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons. That’s four games all year that he didn’t hit triple digits. Six of those tons were 120 or higher, including five over 130. He had just two scores below 80 all year on his way to averaging 108.7. He ranked eighth for averages and sixth for points. He scored more than Lachie Neale, Clayton Oliver, and Jackson Macrae and was under 30 points away from Touk Miller, who finished fourth.

Last year we had some great in-season DPP gains in the forward line, including Luke Paker, Bailey Smith and Marcus Bontempelli. Yet Dunkley was still higher than these guys in averages and total points. He was clear and supreme the best forward for 2022.

In SuperCoach, he posted fifteen tons. Seven were above 120, five were above 130, and his top three scores were 142, 143 & 155. He had two additional scores above 90, and in just four games, his scoring dipped under 80. By the year’s closing he was ranked 15th in SuperCoach for total points and 23rd by averages.

Before injuring his shoulder in 2021, he was the hottest scoring player across all game formats. Over the season’s first six rounds, he averaged 115 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 129 in SuperCoach. If you didn’t own him, luck stopped him from running away with your season. He’s got the scoring capability within him to go back. In 2019 his scoring pedigree of Dunkley was first seen. Over his final thirteen games of that season, he scored twelve tons and, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, averaged 125.3 and 129.9 for SuperCoach.
You don’t have to pick and choose the data trends from 2021 or 2019 to showcase that Dunkley has the scoring pedigree to match it with the top options across the formats. For example, in the first seven weeks of 2022, he averaged 121 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 118 in SuperCoach. While in the last month of the season, he averaged 115 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 125 in SuperCoach.
At the end of the 2020 AFL season, Josh requested a trade to Essendon. One of the primary motivators around it was a desire to have a permanent position in the midfield. With a successful move to Brisbane two years on, he’s now got the chance to prove to the AFL world why he wanted the opportunity to become a permanent midfielder.

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MY TAKE

He was recruited for a purpose! That’s what Brisbane has done by trading for the services of Josh Dunkley. He has been targeted to add a physical and a skills combination mix that the Lions midfield needs to improve. While the team have options through the centre bounces, they are one of the smaller midfield going around. Lachie Neale is only 178cm, Jarryd Lyons is 184cm, and Hugh McCluggage is 185cm. However, Josh is 191cm. His height, strength and physical presence will make a significant impact from the first bounce.

Alongside that, Dunkley offers something unique to the midfield options. His combination of elite contested footy alongside his tackling pressure will enable both him and his midfield teammates to thrive. Last year the Lions ranked 12th in the AFL for tackles and had just one player average over five per game. Last year Josh averaged 6.1 per game and was ranked 13th in the league in this stat column.

Dunkley will receive a minimum of 65% of centre bounce attendance, and this isn’t just because of what he adds to the midfield mix. It’s also because of the Lions forward structures. Even before the offseason addition of Jack Gunston, they already had a stacked forward line. On their day, Eric Hipwood and Joe Daniher are damaging talls. Then you’ve got some devastating smalls in the live wires of Zac Bailey and Charlie Cameron. Throw in Gunston plus the rotations from Linc McCarthy, Dayne Zorko, and Cam Rayner, and now opposition coaches will have headaches for days trying to stop this team. As handy as Dunkley is when forward, there is no room for him outside of rotation management.

What’s great about Dunkley is he can skip bulk CBAs to score well anyway. For example, in round seven against Essendon last year, he attended only 23% of centre bounces but still posted a 130+ score across the formats. Two weeks later, he scored over 110 with just 24% CBAs, and a further two weeks beyond that, he scored over 135 and attended just 32% of centre bounces.

Is there a narrative for why you’d go against selecting him in your starting squad? There are a few. Firstly, you believe he’ll have a slower start to the season. The midfield mix will take time to find a rhythm, and you think Dunkley will score below 100 over these first few weeks. Additionally, you look at the Brisbane early fixture and see some tough matchups early. In round one, they play Port Adelaide, who was historically one of the harder teams to score against. Additionally, it’s a clash against his former team in round three. And based on previous comments he’s made, I suspect the Dogs players will be ready to bite.

It’s banking for many things to go your way while 53% of AFLFantasy, 65% of DreamTeam and 63% of SuperCoach are backing him. In reality, by not starting him, you are cheering for an injury or something bad to happen to him, like a suspension or a concussion. But the reality is that you will want him at some point in the season. So why not eliminate the risk and possible headache and start with him?

Whenever a player is clear and supreme, the best option in his line, I start them. He doesn’t have to increase his scoring either to do that. Even a hold is a jump down to the next best on the known forwards. I’m all for taking a risk, but opting out of Dunkley is unnecessary.

So why is Dunkley at #1 on my 50 most relevant? In essence, it’s pretty simple. I could build a narrative case that every player didn’t have to be selected. In theory, you could find someone else to replicate a comparable scoring outcome in your starting squad or upgraded plans. With Josh Dunkley, given his position, his scoring pedigree, and his ownership, I couldn’t justify or advocate a good reason not to select him.

DRAFT DECISION

Where Josh Dunkley goes on the draft day will be determined by the format you choose to draft within. What will stay the same is that he’s the first forward selected off draft boards. For AFLFantasy scoring formats, he’s right in the mix for the #1 pick overall. And personally, if I had that selection, I’d be picking him there. However, in SuperCoach, the conversation is more open for the top pick. Passing up the handful of 120+ midfielders is a challenge. But if he doesn’t go in the first handful of selections, I don’t see a world where he’s still on in the second round.

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#6 Most Relevant | Tim Taranto

Read Time:8 Minute, 9 Second

The arrival of Tim Taranto has two significant impacts. One is for Richmond’s chances of delivering another premiership in this era. The second is for the fantasy football community, as we could have one of the best scoring options available as a forward.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tim Taranto
Age: 25
Club: Richmond Tigers
Position: Midfield/Forward

2022 Highest Score:
128 Vs Sydney (AFLFantasy)
121 Vs Fremantle (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
156 Vs North Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2019)
144 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2019)

2022 Average:
95.5 (AFLFantasy)
91.4(SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $503,100
AFLFantasy Price: $846,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $867,000

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

The trading for Tim Taranto is excellent news if you’re a Richmond fan. Not just because he’s a high-calibre player but because it means the club should buck the trend of embracing a full rebuild after a successful premiership era. Taranto’s arrival is significant because it stalls any talk of rebuilding. Still, it also adds some significant strength that all too often depended on Dion Prestia’s health. Last year, Jayden Short and Shai Bolton were the club’s third and fourth most-used players at centre bounces. Now Tim, alongside the addition of Jacob Hopper, adds a significant change of personnel and squad depth through the midfield.

This isn’t just great news for Tiger fans but the fantasy AFL community. Over multiple seasons at the Giants, the scoring pedigree of Tim Taranto has been on full display. But only when he’s been allowed to play heavily as a centre-bounce midfielder has he shown over numerous years he can score.

He first emerged as a genuine premium when as a MID/FWD in his second season, he averaged 90 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 88 in SuperCoach. The following season in 2019, he emerged as a genuine premium when her averaged 112.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102 in SuperCoach.

During this 2019 season, he scored fifteen AFLFantasy tons, seven of which over 130 highlighted his ability to deliver a scoring ceiling. That same season in SuperCoach, he registered a ton in thirteen matches. His 2021 saw him in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam average of 107.7. He scored fourteen tons, seven of them were above 120, and in an additional five games, he scored 90 or above. That’s him scoring 90+ in 86% of matches. By the year’s closing, he’s ranked 15th for total points. For SuperCoach, his year returned twelve tons, three of them over 120 and an additional four scores over 90. Positively, one of his most significant scores came when he played a 100% forward role and scored a 130+ against the Tigers.

We haven’t even spoken about his 2022 year. From his sixteen games, he scored seven tons in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, four of those were over 120. He had three additional scores over 90 and four scores under 80. He averaged 95.5 and is currently ranked third amongst all eligible forwards.

While in SuperCoach, he posted six tons, with the highest being 121 against Fremantle. He had two additional scores between 90-99, and his scoring dipped under 80 on five occasions. His average of 91.3 places him as the ninth-best forward by average.

Here’s the crazy thing, he only attended over 50% of centre bounces in eight of his sixteen games last year and never attended more than 59%. There was also no correlation between those games where he attended 50% or higher CBAs related to a stronger score. Tim had three games where he averaged under 40% CBAs but still scored tons across the formats.

It’s quite simple if Taranto is allowed to be a centre-bounce midfielder, he should be on our radars. However, he still presents some value in the Richmond, largely fantasy football purgatory system. Why? Because Tim is a strongly-rounded midfielder. Not only is he a high-volume accumulator, but he’s also a powerful tackler and a damaging forward of the ball in front of goals. His disposal efficiency is an area where he can be criticised, but in the Tigers system, where a ‘surge’ mentality of moving the ball forward is the focus, he should only succeed.

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MY TAKE

Richmond wasn’t great last year. The aura they once had of being impossible to defeat started to fade. Why? Because the players, the roles and the game style that had served them so well for the previous few seasons were now starting to get picked apart and exposed by opposition teams. It’s why the Tigers identified, prioritised and paid a heavy price in contracts and draft capital to secure Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto.

The club has identified and now secured centre bounce specialists and clearance bulls who will aid the midfield immediately. Without hesitation, Taranto will be played as primarily a centre-bounce midfielder. His addition allows them to play the likes of Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton as impact midfielders, but predominantly in the forward half, where their possession impact can be at its most.

One of the things I often preach through the fifty most relevant is narrative consistency. For example, some preach that Tom Mitchell at Collingwood is a certainty to go 110+ because he’s got a proven scoring history and now a defined midfield role. But that same crowd say Tim Taranto cannot score well despite a comparable situation. I don’t see how you can take the same narrative in two potentially comparable situations and come up with opposite outcomes unless you allow confirmation bias to filter into your statistical narrative. Stay consistent with your processing. If Taranto is volatile, so is Mitchell.

Ownership can and does play a factor. Once a player hits a certain threshold, the risk is no longer on those owning but those going against a popular premium. Normally I have the threshold at about 50% format ownership. When premiums have that percentage level, there’s only pain and very little to gain by going against the crowd that sharply. At the time of writing, Taranto’s current ownership is 49% in SuperCoach, 57% DreamYeam and 49% AFLFantasy. To me, he’s hit that tipping point and going against him presents a significant risk.

What’s the upside with Tim? I believe in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam; he’s got between 10-20 proven points per game of upside. In SuperCoach, he’s got the upside of 10 proven points per game. He is one of only three forwards capable of matching Josh Dunkley’s scoring. What’s the downside? He holds his current scoring range and stays top 5-10 forward. Yet again, the upside outweighs any downside to me.

Over the past few years, we have seen Taranto suffer multiple injury concerns. In just 2022 alone, he struggled to overcome a back complaint while also suffering a concussion. Additionally, in his six seasons of AFL, he’s had only two where he’s played a full season and just three seasons where he’s played 20+ matches. And while injury history is a concern, he’s currently having an uninterrupted preseason, and ultimately, that’s all we can ask from him.

Remember what we always preach about any player’s injury history. If anything, such concerns are why to consider him in your starting squad and not as an upgrade target. If you start with them, you can bank all the scores they deliver. And with every passing game, the likelihood of injury will only increase. However, suppose you trade into an injury ‘risk’. In that case, you run the gauntlet of not just missing his good scores that attracted you to make them an upgrade, but rather your likelihood of trading into that injury is higher with every game past. Starting these ‘injury-prone’ players is the best way to offset the risk. If an injury does occur, you have banked every good score available but also spent just one trade, not multiple, on removing him from your side.

If you can’t tell, I’m bullish on Tim this year, and barring an injury, he’ll be in my starting squad across all formats.

DRAFT DECISION

The first forward off the draft boards will be Josh Dunkley. Across the formats, he’s my consensus #1 overall pick. But where Tim Taranto goes will depend on two variables, the format you play and if you have captains ‘on.’

In AFLFantasy, he’s a natural first-round selection but will go later in the opening round if captains are on, as people will elect to go for a ‘safer’ midfield guy. For SuperCoach, I have him heading off draft boards early in the second round.

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#16 Most Relevant | Connor Rozee

Read Time:6 Minute, 48 Second

One of the most remarkable in-season fantasy football turnarounds came from Connor Rozee. From being in the dog house to winning the club’s best & fairest, the move into the midfield was sensational for both his confidence and his fantasy football output. The benefit of the slow scoring start is we have a forward premium with some inbuilt value. Are you on board in 2023?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Connor Rozee
Age: 23
Club: Port Adelaide Power
Position: Midfield/Forward

2022 Highest Score:
144 Vs Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
162 Vs Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
144 Vs Adelaide | AFLFantasy (2022)
162 Vs Adelaide | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average:
88.1 (AFLFantasy)
93.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $513,800
AFLFantasy Price: $780,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $799,700

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It could have been a better start for Port Adelaide or Connor Rozee. Over the opening month, they had yet to win a game, and many called for Port to drop Connor as he struggled to impact the games by playing deep inside the Power forward lines. However, by the end of the season, he’d have turned it around that he was named in the 2022 All-Australian squad, won the club B&F and picked up 14 Brownlow Medal votes.

The club significantly changed from round five by throwing Rozee into the midfield. The move happened more out of necessity, with Ollie Wines missing the clash against the Carlton. But from then on, he was sensational. His speed, class and poise were on full display, adding a new dimension to the Power midfield.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 88 across the season, which places him as the sixth-highest-ranked forward available to us. He scored nine tons, including 125 and 144, in the season’s final round. He delivered nine scores under 80, but four of them were his opening month of the year.

For SuperCoach, he averaged 93.3 across the year and posted nine tons, and all three of his scores over 120 were monsters! A 153, 154 & 162! His scoring dipped below 80 in nine matches, but like in AFLFantasy, four were before his role changed.

The real story is what happened after the role change. From round five onwards, he scored nine tons across the formats and averaged 97.7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102.6 in SuperCoach. As a reference point, ranking that eighteen-week average compared to the other top forwards, he’d be ranked as the third forward in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and second in SuperCoach.

As strong as that data trend is, there’s more upside. In the final eleven games after the bye, he averaged 101.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 106.8 in SuperCoach. And in the last seven matches of the year, he averaged 110 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 112 in SuperCoach.

He’s shown glimpses of his fantasy pedigree over the three previous seasons, with multiple tons and good stretches of games going 80+. But 2022 was different; he did this as a midfielder more than as a crafty forward who occasionally pushes up the flanks.

The primary attraction behind selecting Rozee is that he’s shown the capacity to score at the top end of the forwards but to do so at a haircut of the same price point. Anytime we get some value and save some coin without compromising on our scoring potential is always a win. It allows us to reinvest that cash into some other players and improve our scoring in the totality of our squad.

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MY TAKE

Everything about Connor Rozee lends itself to the narrative that he’s clearly on an upward trajectory to becoming a premium forward selection for us this season. The combination of value + upside is why so many coaches are starting him this year. At the time of writing, he’s in 36% of SuperCoach, 41% of DreamTeam and 42% of AFLFantasy sides. Those are staggeringly high numbers. I get the appeal, but that is your level for a make-or-break guy in your starting squad. I’m not convinced fading Connor from your starting squad will ruin your season.

Have you been listening to these accompanying podcasts? Over the past few days, Rids has made some valid points on several players that can take a season away from you. However, as good as Rozee could and should be, I’m not sold he has yet shown the ability to take a season away from you. So, are you choosing to get him for value and skimping coin on investing in either Stephen Coniglio, Tim Taranto or Josh Dunkley? Or Can he be at their level?

We can only start so many forward premiums, and we need to create space for variable change should some big names appear to pick up DPP. So to start Rozee, the belief is that you believe he’ll be close enough; if not, score himself enough to become a topline forward option this year.

What should provide coaches with some additional confidence in selecting him isn’t just the fact he’s been having an elite preseason through the midfield. But Port Adelaide has invested seriously in the forward line in the offseason. The addition of Junior Rioli brings a smart, crafty forward into the mix with a dynamic trio of tall forwards. With Junior coming in alongside Orazio Fantasia & Sam Powell-Pepper, it adds some depth immediately. Throw in some more forward rotations from Travis Boak and a developing youngster in Jason Horne-Francis, and it starts to fill out nicely without Connor. This means that Port can now choose to place Connor there when desired, not out of necessity—freeing him up to take up some more slack through the midfield.

Sometimes, we weaponise statistics and data to suit our narrative in the fantasy community. And in this case, the statistics indicate the potential to be a topline premium. However, they also show a four-week average of 44 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 51 in SuperCoach. These aren’t injured games; they happened. And while on the probability scale, he’s more likely to be a premium and a bust, there is a world where he holds and potentially marginally regresses. That could be due to a role split more 50/50 in MID/FWD, or it could be due to the tag. Unlikely doesn’t mean impossible.

Coaches starting with Connor can easily feel justified that he’ll be a strong starting selection. At the same time, those without him will monitor his start to the season and the DPP additions heading into round six. Either way, Connor is relevant and worthy of serious conversations and considerations this preseason.

DRAFT DECISION

The top five forwards off draft boards have a consensus about them amongst the community. Josh Dunkley, Tim Taranto and Stephen Coniglio are many people’s clear top three. However, once these guys are off the draft board, the attention will quickly turn to a forward like Connor Rozee. He’ll be an F1, but he’s someone you could get in the third round of your draft, maybe even fourth if you’re lucky. I know the top-end forwards fall off quickly, but I couldn’t jump onto Rozee with a second-round selection.

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#18 Most Relevant | Stephen Coniglio

Read Time:8 Minute, 0 Second

Rarely can a premium still be seen with significant value built into it’s price. Stephen Coniglio has that potential in 2023. But, as good as he has been, and can be, is Cogs the perfect player to start within our teams? Or should we be watching what happens under a new coaching regime?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Stephen Coniglio
Age: 29
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Midfield/Forward

2022 Highest Score:
130 Vs North Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
174 Vs North Melbourne (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
192 Vs Gold Coast | AFLFantasy (2019)
207 Vs Gold Coast | SuperCoach (2019)

2022 Average:
98.4 (AFLFantasy)
101.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $557,700
AFLFantasy Price: $871,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $893,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For over a decade, we’ve spoken favourably about Stephen Coniglio in fantasy football circles. The Giants co-captain has spent multiple seasons as part of this series and in the conversation of being a valuable premium and value pick since his debut in 2012. However, over recent seasons Cogs has shown whether he’s playing as a centre-bounce midfielder or as a high half-forward when he’s on the park, he’s still a damaging prospect for opposition teams to play against.

The 2022 season started promisingly enough, stalled in the middle and flew home over the final few months. His average of 98.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 101.3 in SuperCach places him as the second-highest-ranked forward available this year based on averages. For a true reflection of Stephen’s season, the year should be split into two halves. He had the nine games of the season under Leon Cameron and then what he did in the next twelve under interim coach Mark McVeigh.

No fantasy coach enjoyed the rollercoaster ride of the final few months of Leon’s coaching reign. But the positive is it created some inbuilt value into his price point for 2023. He’s priced at 98 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 101 in SuperCoach. But shown in the twelve games he played under McVeigh, he could score upwards of ten points per game higher than he’s priced at. You rarely get this much potential upside with premiums at this pricing range, but with Stephen, we have it.

This scoring under McVeigh echoes some of his historical data of years gone by. In 2018-2019 he averaged 110.3 & 103.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 108.4 & 101.2 in SuperCoach. So the data is really clear. If we can get Cogs north of 60% of centre bounces, then we’ve got a serious top-end forward-eligible premium that can score at the same levels as our midfield premos.

Even though our forward lines have taken a significant hit with the loss of MID/FWD DOPP to Bailey Smith, Marcus Bontempelli and Luke Parker as a notable big three, we’ve still got some top-end talent, and Coniglio, based on proven scoring, can be right in the conversations as a top tier forward this season.

Over previous seasons there had been significant concerns about his injury history. And while he’s still yet to play a full season, he played 95% of games last year and 94% of 2020, showing that he’s just as likely recently to play out the majority of a season as he is to miss big chunks. Therefore the injury narrative can get in the bin.

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MY TAKE

Whenever a team undergoes a coaching change, that can significantly change several elements. From a club culture, the game style, the best on-field 22 mix, and even player roles can all see significant transformation under a new coach. We saw this play out in real-time last year under the difference of how Leon utilised Stephen Coniglio as opposed to Mark McVeigh.

Fantasy football coaches must seek answers to several primary questions to make an informed decision regarding Cogs in your starting squad. First, what is the game style that Adam Kingsley will deploy at GWS? Will this game style be conducive to fantasy scoring? What is the midfield mix like for the Giants? And what roles will Stephen be asked to fulfil within this?

What does the midfield mix look like for GWS? Regardless of the mix and approach, I can’t see Tom Green missing out on being a senior figure and being the one that they build this new Giants era around. We spoke about him earlier in the 50 most relevant here. But who is standing at centre bounces alongside him? Is it a heavy reliance on experienced hands in Josh Kelly, Stephen Coniglio and Callan Ward? If that’s the case, the path to a 105+ average is potentially very clear and simple.

Also available for consideration in the mix for Kingsley and co are Lachie Ash & Harry Perryman, who’ve both sown potential through the guts when given opportunities, all be it limited. It could be trickier if the CBA mix is expanded and spread more evenly to include these lads. And then the likes of Finn Callaghan, Harry Rowston and even Toby McMullin are all likely key pillars of the future. Does ‘Pipes’ Kingsley give them just glimpses, or will he throw them into the deep end at the centre bounce? Ultimately, we will know season proper, but how you view this mix will inform the decision substantially around his selection on your side.

How much of what Kingsley sat under at Richmond as an assistant coach will translate to GWS? Historically we’ve seen Richmond over the recent era give us only a few fantasy prospects. While Collingwood got a new coach from the Richmond regime last year, we also saw a need for genuine fantasy prospects at the top end. Does that mean we’ll see something similar from Adam at GWS? Ultimately, the trend isn’t positive, but it’s far from definitive. As I spoke about with Rids on the podcast, this GWS midfield, in a pound-for-pound battle at the top end, is still one of the most elite units in the AFL. Just as probable as a poor fantasy-friendly game style is that he plays to his playing cattle strength and leverages the elite midfield players on the list.

Many coaches will have Josh Dunkley as their first forward selected and would strongly argue that by season’s end, he’ll be the top-performing forward in 2023. The fact he is already it and done in a split MID-FWD role at Western Bulldogs, the expectation of an even higher performance as a pure midfielder at Brisbane is highly valid. Only a few currently eligible forwards have the potential to match Dunkley, let alone challenge him for that mantle. Stephen has the proven scoring ceiling to not just go on hot runs of a few months of 110+ but has multiple seasons of average north of 100.

As of February 1st, 35% of DreamTeam, 34% of AFLFantasy and 21% of SuperCoach players have him on their side. So either with a valid reason or not, there is a level of high selection confidence across the community that Coniglio will be open to the top performing forward this year. That’s likely because at his ‘downside,’ he’s still a mid-high 80’s performer. While the upside

He will be cheaper than this if he’s a player attending anything higher than 60% centre bounces. However, he is valuable, and he can take a season away from you if he has a hot start through the midfield.

If you have any significant doubts about Coniglio, he’s an upgrade target for you. Whether that be in a role or how the Giants structure up. If you trust two or three more premium forward options than Coniglio, then he’s an upgrade target for you. The fact that the community is split on what to do makes him highly relevant, and his early season performance will impact your season’s success.

DRAFT DECISION

The first forward off the board on draft day will be Josh Dunkley. That seems a fait accompli universally across all drafts and formats. But where will Stephen Congilio go? Some have him ranked second, while others are hesitant on the GWS midfield and will fade him marginally. Either way, he’ll be in the first handful of forwards selected.

Forward premiums fall away fast this year, and the popular community sentiment is to lock away the best forward early. Should this sentiment get actioned, I can see coaches leaping for him in the first round. If he doesn’t go there, he’ll be a snaffled up as an early selection in the second round

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#21 Most Relevant | Toby McLean

Read Time:5 Minute, 33 Second

It’s been a long time since we’ve talked about Toby McLean and used the phrase ‘fantasy relevant.’ But after a strong score in his one game in the AFL finals, plus favourable pricing across the formats, he’s become a staple in plenty of preseason structures.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Toby McLean
Age: 26
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: Midfield/Forward

2022 Highest Score:
Did Not Play

Career Highest Score:
152 Vs Collingwood | AFLFantasy (2018)
146 Vs Gold Coast | SuperCoach (2018)

2022 Average:
Did Not Play

SuperCoach Price: $178,900
AFLFantasy Price: $401,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $293,500

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

There are two reasons that Toby McLean is on fantasy coaches radars. Firstly, value! After recovering from an ACL injury, he’s priced at an absolute bargain. In two formats, he’s priced as a cash cow. In SuperCoach, he’s priced about $25k cheaper than our most expensive cash cow this year Aaron Cadman. For DreamTeam, he’s priced just a few thousand beneath him, and AFLFantasy, he’s priced $100k more than him, but it’s at the price point of a guy averaging 45.

The second is due to a proven record of fantasy scoring. In 2018 he scored nine AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons, including 143 & 152. He had eight additional scores of 80+ on the way to averaging 94.5. That same season in SuperCoach, he posted 10 tons, three of them over 120. His seasonal average of 94.6 is exceptional, but there was a pocket of nine rounds where he went at an average of 113.3

2018 is far from a career outlier; the season earlier, he averaged 85.5 across the formats. However, over the final ten weeks of the season, he averaged 95.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 97.2 in SuperCoach. So, in reality, we’ve got a gut that, for 32 games straight, showed the capacity of being a mid-90s performing player.

This history might feel too distant to carry much substance. And in part, that’s reasonable. However, his game in the elimination final against the Dockers last year adds some weight to the hope that his coring potential still exists. In that match, he had 21 possessions, nine tackles, two marks, and two behinds. In fantasy terms, he scored 100 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & SuperCoach. Most impressively, he did this without attending a centre bounce. Rather McLean started as a forward and then would push up the ground.

McLean is a proven performer who, in DreamTeam & SuperCoach, is priced as a cash cow. While in AFLFantasy, he’s right on the lower edges of being a stepping stone. If fit and named round one, Toby appears to be one of the easiest selections in the 2023 fantasy season.

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MY TAKE

As much as Toby McLean has shown the potential to score as a premium forward, nobody should be walking into the season expecting he’ll become one. It’s in the realm of possibility, but you should temper those expectations. Based on his price point, you should view him through the same lens as a cash cow. He’s a 6-8 week play in which you can make some coin, score a few points and then be flipped into a premium forward.

One of the hardest teams to get a gauge on this preseason is the Western Bulldogs. Who are the bottom five players that sneak into the best 22 for round one? As much as McLean should be picked in round one, the Dogs have plenty of depth for players that can play inside forward 50 and then push up the ground. Unfortunately, you can only fit some of Robbie McComb, Anthony Scott, Roarke Smith, Mitch Hannan, Lachie McNeil, Laitham Vandermeer, Riley Garcia and Toby McLean all playing a forward-midfield rotation. As you can see, the dogs are DEEP in this area of the list.

What it does mean if you need to have a contingency plan. An ‘ITTT’. This stands for If This Then That. In essence, specified events occur a specific follow-up is triggered and handled. With McLean, you need to have a backup, he should be best 22, but he’s far from locked in. What will you do if he isn’t named that doesn’t create an entire squad restructure? If you have yet to think this through, then now’s a great chance to start doing so.

Where he plays is of little concern to me; predicting what the coaching team at Western Bulldogs is hard enough to predict, even for some of their best players. So to think that McLean has greater positional security than these bigger names is slightly ludicrous. For what it’s worth, I believe that should he play, I suspect he’ll be heavily based in the forward fifty with some opportunities to push up the wings. I don’t see him picking up any, let alone many CBAs.

Sometimes you can overcomplicate things. We can get too cute or create narratives that don’t exist. But the story should be very simple for Toby McLean. He should end up on your side if he’s named round one. In DreamTeam & SuperCoach, there is little to process. He’s a proven performer priced as a cow. In AFLFantasy, I see him being overlooked only if we get an abundance of cows and no longer require players at his price range.

DRAFT DECISION

Toby McLean’s relevance is heavily in classic game formats, but as a result, he’ll get noticed by draft coaches. I’d happily take him as a flyer with my last on-field or bench spot. Unfortunately, there’s only upside on him at that point of the draft. At best, he pops up to an F3; at worst, I delist him for a player that is popping.

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#23 Most Relevant | Nat Fyfe

Read Time:7 Minute, 37 Second

For years Nat Fyfe has been one of the best players in the AFL. Lately, his body has dominated the headlines more than his football. As we enter the 2023 fantasy football season, the gang at Champion Data has given us a potential gift. They’ve awarded Fyfe DPP. As a MID/FWD, he could be one of the best starting squad options.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Nat Fyfe
Age: 31
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Midfield/Forward

2022 Highest Score:
89 Vs St Kilda(AFLFantasy)
96 Vs St Kilda (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
150 Vs Adelaide | AFLFantasy (2015)
171 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2014)

2022 Average:
56.1 (AFLFantasy)
63.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $313,600
AFLFantasy Price: $681,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $458,700

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For over a decade, Nat Fyfe has been one of the best AFL players and a staple of our fantasy football sides. With multiple Brownlow Medals, numerous club best and fairest wins and broader AFL media acclaim, there is no doubt then when Nat is fit and healthy, at full flight, he’s magnificent to watch and enjoyable to own in fantasy footy.

The 2022 season will go down as one of Nat’s most frustrating seasons. An injury interrupted preseason left him managing a back issue that required some surgery. After a few setbacks, he managed to get back into the side; however, a series of hamstring-related issues brought further disruption and cost him a spot in the Fremantle finals campgain.

It took til round thirteen for Fyfe to make his first appearance in the season. Of. the seven games he managed to play, he averaged 56.1 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, and for SuperCoach, he averaged 63.2. He had just one match that even vaguely resembled what he’s historically been capable of doing. In round seventeen, he scored 89 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 96 in SuperCoach. That came from 21 possessions, six marks and three goals.

This scoring is well below what he achieved in 2021. From his fifteen games, he averaged 100.4 in SuperCoach, which featured eight tons, five of which were above 120, and his scoring fell below 90 in just five games. In addition, Fyfe averaged 84.4 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, which featured five tons and five additional scores of 80+.

Few players could match his scoring capacity from 2011-2020 across all formats, especially in SuperCoach. Over that decade, he regularly averaged between 95-105 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, and in SuperCoach, he had nine seasons averaging 100+, including three 119+.

Fyfe’s scoring power over the last 10+ seasons cannot be ignored. And while injury-interrupted seasons like last year can hurt, the benefit for the fantasy community is the player will receive a pricing discount, and they can become undeniable value. He’s currently priced at an average of 57 in SuperCoach, 50 in AFLDreamTeam and 77 in AFLFantasy. Based on his historical capacity, he’s got anywhere from 25-70 points per game of value!

Throw in the fact that he’s not just midfield eligible. Champion Data had awarded him MID/FWD status after playing heavy forward minutes after returning from injury last year. So you now have a potentially elite scorer that could become a season-long premium in the forward lines at an insanely good price. If Fyfe has yet to be considered this preseason, you’ve been doing it wrong!

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MY TAKE

Nat Fyfe is of undeniable value IF he plays in the role through the midfield that saw him win two Brownlow Medals. However, the news from the club with match simulations is that he’s playing as a forward. You can look at that in two lights. Firstly, this will be his new role, and any midfield opportunities through the Dockers midfield will be minimal. While this is a possibility, an alternate reality could eventuate.

Preseason club match simulations, practice matches and community series games mean nothing to players of Fyfe’s experience and age. These games are much more about getting them through from a fitness perspective. Nat’s a game champion, and Fremantle is fully aware of what he can do through the midfield. So why not spend the preseason enhancing his forward craft and protecting his health through the preseason by developing his forward craft?

Fyfe will play forward for chunks of the season, as he should. He’s a difficult matchup for any defender, and his power and aerial strength will add some experience to arguably the line the Dockers are the most vulnerable. However, if Fremantle is serious about not just making finals, they must play him through the midfield for more than just a few rotations. He is still one of the most dynamic and damaging midfielders in the AFL when at full health. Am I saying Nat will play as a permanent midfielder? Certainly not! But the narrative that when the season proper comes around that Fyfe won’t be given a decent MID/FWD split is false.

Normally a player with a recent injury history comparable to Fyfe, I’d be driving home the point that you start them or fade them. And as true as that might be with Nat, the starting price mitigates any risk. He’s got the scoring history to certainly be a player capable of turning into a season-long hold as a keeper, but he doesn’t have to be that in some formats. As a reference in SuperCoach, he’s priced cheaper than preseason popular stepping-stone midfielders in Dom Sheed & Jacob Hopper. Based on his scoring potential, he’s got way more scoring potential than them both.

If this were an AFLFantasy only 50 most relevant, he wouldn’t even make the 50, let alone be this high. Priced at an average of the high 70s, your only selecting him if you were confident he’s returning to a 90+ average. While he has the potential to do it, he’ll likely need a heavy midfield role.

In SuperCoach & DreamTeam, he’s very relevant, given he’s got the potential to average double what he’s priced at. With the volume of trades we have in these formats, you can look at Fyfe not just as a starting squad stepping stone but as an in-season trade, whether that be to use as one of your correctional trades in the opening few weeks. Or as a fixture/role runner for a month or two.

Most club watchers of the Dockers believe they’ll have a narrow rotation of midfielders. Andrew Brayshaw, Caleb Serong, Will Brodie and Jaeger O’Meara will be the main four, with potential cameos from Aish, Erasmus or Johnson if they get into the 22. It’s not the most experienced midfield; all it can take is one injury to one of the main four, and Fyfe HAS to become a lead midfielder rather than a supporting one. While you don’t wish injuries on anyone, he is one variable change away from sliding back into that first midfield grouping.

All a player with his injury history can do is get through the preseason unscathed; if he does, he still needs to be considered. He’s not currently in my side, but that doesn’t mean I’ll be ruling him out of my side considerations in 2023. In SuperCoach especially, I’ll be watching his role closely. If the chips fall his way, he is one of only a few known forward options in SuperCoach who could outscore most people’s #1 scoring candidate in Josh Dunkley.

DRAFT DECISION

Players with high fantasy legacy possess name appeal in coaches eyes, and Nat Fyfe’s name carries some significant weight. So much has been made of this pre-season about how good the top-end forward is, but then how quickly the division depth falls away. With this and his scoring potential, his ‘brand’ will become a heavy reason coaches want to draft him. I see him heading off draft boards as an F3 in SuperCoach and a positional spot later as an F4 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam scoring formats.

At that point of the draft, there is no risk on him, and If you’re worried about injuries, then protect that selection of Fyfe by drafting deeper in the forward lines. Always protect each pick with the subsequent picks.

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#26 Most Relevant | Zak Butters

Read Time:7 Minute, 7 Second

All the talk this pre-season is about a Port Adelaide MID/FWD that could be one the best starting squad options. But none of it is about Zak Butters. He’s got the upside not just to match his more popular teammate, but he could be an even better pick.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Zak Butters
Age: 22
Club: Port Adelaide Power
Position: Midfield/Forward

2022 Highest Score:
137 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy)
136 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
137 Vs Hawthorn | AFLFantasy (2022)
163 Vs Essendon | SuperCoach (2021)

2022 Average:
86.3 (AFLFantasy)
96.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $529,400
AFLFantasy Price: $764,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $783,400

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It’s amazing how twelve months can change a players narrative can drastically change. This time last year, Zak Butters was one of the most hyped players entering the season. And while over the totality of 2022, there were multiple rollercoaster moments, he’s still entering into 2023 ranked by average as the #4 forward in SuperCoach and #7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, his seasonal average consisted of six tons. Two were above 120, while his scoring dipped below 80 in seven matches. While for SuperCoach, his average of 96.15 consisted of eleven tons, five above 120 and just six under 80. It’s not a bad effort, given in two of his games, he suffered serious head clashes, another he played with a virus and was also subbed out of one game with a knee injury.

What has coaches salivating entering into 2023 is that after he returned from injury, it appeared that he and the Power coaching staff found the perfect balance. In the final seven games of the year, he averaged 101.1 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 106.8 in SuperCoach. While in the final five games of the year, he averaged 107.4 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 115.6 in SuperCoach.

The scoring glimpses we saw last year were also seen in patches for the two seasons prior. In 2021 for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 76, scored one ton and four additional scores of 80 or higher. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 82, hit triple digits in one game and had four additional scores of 90+. In 2020 he averaged 87 in SuperCoach, which consisted of six tons; five were over 110 and four additional scores 80+. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 62.3 in the shorter games (adjusted 77) and scored one ton (114 pure 142 adjusted) and two other games 80+.

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MY TAKE

Many readers of our articles and podcast listeners are focused on one thing. Winning it all and getting the highest ranking possible. To do so, plenty of variables need to fall your way, but one thing is required. Pack separation. It can manifest itself in many ways, but ultimately you need something about your team to create separation from the pack and fantasy footy groupthink.

One of the areas in which you can create positive separation is you can opt into selecting a player that others are overlooking with the intent that they can either match or surpass others’ performances that have way higher ownership. For contrast’s sake, when you think of a premium Port Adelaide forward, the first thought for the majority of the community is Connor Rozee. That’s not necessarily a bad or wrong call, but it highlights how much Zak Butters is flying under the radar. Remember, in SuperCoach, Zak averaged more and was only two points per game off him in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. For players that have a similar scoring pedigree, that’s a drastic ownership differential.

	SuperCoach	DreamTeam	AFLFantasy
Rozee	33%	38%	42%
Butters	10%	10%	6%

The above isn’t to say you should be on Team Butters or Team Rozee. You can select one, none or both. But rather, it’s to highlight the group think that can exist in the fantasy community and, certainly, the narrative reflected in the early ownership numbers. The seasonal data of Rozee is stronger, but to say they had similarities in the season is unfair. Rozee spent 3/4 of it as a centre-bounce midfielder, whereas Butters had only five games where he attended over 50%. Again, this is not about choosing one over the other but to remind you of the importance of looking broader and deeper to create separation from the pack.

A potentially valid reason to avoid owning Zak is that he’s shown over his AFL career to find multiple ways to get injured. For example, last year was a career season for games played. And yet he still had games where he had multiple head clashes, shoulder stingers, and then in round 14, he was subbed off and missed multiple games with a knee injury.

We’ve discussed players with less-than-friendly injury history throughout the preseason. My basic premise is with these players that if the injury is the question mark, you choose to start or pass on them for the season.

The reason being is that if you start with them, you can bank all the scores they deliver. And with every passing game, the likelihood of injury will only increase. However, suppose you trade into an injury ‘risk’. In that case, you run the gauntlet of not just missing his good scores that attracted you to make them an upgrade, but rather your likelihood of trading into that injury is higher with every game past.

Starting these ‘injury-prone’ players is the best way to offset the risk. If an injury does occur, you have banked every good score available but also spent just one trade, not multiple, on removing him from your side.

One big unknown entering the coming season is what happens to Port Adelaide, especially with their midfield mix. Last year Rozee and, to a lesser extent, Butters showcased the ability to play significant time through the midfield. They will split their time between midfield and forward because they could be in both roles, but how much split is uncertain. Ollie Wines will be the leader of the midfield pack. Then how much time is split across Travis Boak, Willem Drew, and recruit Jason Horne-Francis will be of great interest to watch.

Back to focus on Butters, will he score better with more time around the midfield? Or as a forward by reaping some of the benefits of a stronger midfield unit than last year? Arguably, as the final few months of 2022 showed, he is more capable of playing a 60% forward split and still averaging over 100. I genuinely believe Port found the sweet spot of how to use him to maximise both his competitive and fearless edge through the midfield. While not sacrificing his goal smarts up forward to Port Adelaide.

This preseason time shouldn’t be about locking players in & ruling players out of your starting squad. It should be about trying out multiple different squad formations and combinations. If Zak Butters hasn’t been at least considered before this moment, I suggest you reevaluate it and ponder the potential output he could bring this year.

DRAFT DECISION

Securing a strong F1 will be a coach’s top priority early on draft day. Zak Butters won’t be the top scoring forward, but he won’t have to be where you draft him. Across the formats, Josh Dunkley, Stephen Conilgio, Tim Taranto and Connor Rozee will be ahead of him. All will be top 15-20 selections as coaches scamper to get something strong. I see Zak heading off draft boards starting from the third round and into the early fourth.

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#39 Most Relevant | Darcy Cameron

Read Time:7 Minute, 50 Second

An injury is all it can take to make someone fantasy football relevant. In 2022 Darcy Cameron took his opportunity and became a hugely important selection across the formats. With Brodie Grundy now out of the picture, can Darcy continue his hot run of form and be one of the best selections in our starting squads?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Darcy Cameron
Age: 27
Club: Collingwood Magpies
Position: RUC/FWD

2022 Highest Score:
133 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy)
130 Vs Fremantle (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
133 Vs Hawthorn | AFLFantasy (2022)
130 Vs Fremantle | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average:
81.9 (AFLFantasy)
84.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $465,900
AFLFantasy Price: $725,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $743,500

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

There are two sides to the Darcy Cameron story in 2022. First, it’s a story of an opportunity being presented and of that opportunity being maximised. It’s about what happens when players get access to a role they’d never been granted. It’s the story of ‘DC’ playing with Brodie Grundy and then taking the mantle as the #1 ruckman when he goes out injured.

From rounds 2-6, it was a challenging start to the season for Darcy. He had one game where he started as the sub and another where he got subbed out with an alleged rib injury. In these five games, he averaged 12.4% attendance at centre bounces, one hitout, 8.4 possessions, 3.4 marks & one tackle. From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he averaged 47.8 and scored 71. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 46.6 with a top score of 72.

Then a significant change occurred. Brodie Grundy, on Anzac Day, smashed his knee against Essendon ruckman Sam Draper in a ruck contest. As a result, he injured his PCL. While the initial diagnosis was he’d miss up to three months, history now informs us that he’d miss the rest of the 2022 season.

From round seven until the season’s end, Darcy Cameron transitioned into the #1 ruck role and dominated. Then, between rounds 7-23, he saw a drastic spike in his possessions, hitouts, centre bounces, attendances and, most importantly, for us in his fantasy football output.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 92.6, scoring six tons, including a career-high score of 133. To go alongside this, Cameron had an additional four scores over 90. For SuperCoach, he averaged 96.5, eight tons, including 130 and four additional scores over 90. Visually, this is what it looks like.

The story of Darcy Cameron and his fantasy relevance is about more than just DC. It’s a reminder that every season we will see a player undertake a significant role change, and with it will come to a boom in scoring in contrast to the low output for your classic formats. The key is identifying the player that will fill the gap and jumping on quickly to maximize output. For coaches that jumped on super early, it was a move that paid massive dividends in cash generation, points scored and likely in your seasonal rankings.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

I’m in a messenger group with a bunch of mates who all play fantasy football. Chances are, you’ve got yourself in a similar setup, maybe even multiple. When I asked this group, ‘who’s picking Darcy Cameron?’ I was met with two very clear but polarising perspectives. Several thought he was the easiest selection of the year; others wanted to avoid selecting him.

There are several reasons why coaches should be considering him. The first is that for his price, there are zero question marks around his role for the side. He will be the #1 ruck. You don’t let Brodie Grundy leave without that confidence. Recruit Dan McStay will play the mobile tall forward and, as we saw at Brisbane, can play some relief ruck minutes.

Second is the potential return on investment. He’s priced approximately ten points per game beneath what was delivered last year past the role change. As a ruckman, he averaged 92 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. If you put that average alongside our current forwards, he’d be ranked fifth for average and third for rucks. He averaged 96 in SuperCoach; by the average contrast, he’d be placed fifth for forwards and tenth for rucks. So even without improving his scoring, but just holding what he did, he is right in the top groups of both rucks and forwards. Third, speaking of DPP, it’s the extra flexibility his RUC/FWD status creates. Just ask coaches that had Tim English last year. It enabled you to loophole scores, cover donuts and even save a trade.

All of these reasons sound wonderful and valid. And, for the most part, they are. However, what I believe is running as the undercurrent for people considering Cameron is one big unspoken issue. That when it comes to the ruck division, plenty of coaches have yet to learn what to expect will happen or even know what they want to do. A ‘set & forget’ approach had been the normative tactic for so long. But with moves in the offseason, all of Brodie Grundy, Max Gawn and even Sean Darcy now have ruck-share concerns.

Beyond Tim English, there seems no consensus that any ruck is ‘safe’ to pay up to own. Rowan Marshall should also be in that same bracket, but I empathise with people’s hesitation. I don’t have these doubts. The uncertainty around the ruck division creates an added appeal to Cameron. Selecting him allows you to look at the line, flip him forward or trade him to the premium on either the ruck or forward line of your choosing.

But it’s for these same reasons people want to avoid Cameron. They want to avoid getting stuck with a ruck or forward that might be anywhere from 10-15 points per game beneath the premium benchmarks in either the ruck or forward line.

Will his scoring range be enough? Even if he maintains his scoring rate from 2022? Who’s to say that our ruck division cannot yet again return to multiple 105+ options? I can see a world where Grundy & Gawm complement each other, not eat into each other’s scoring. The same with Darcy & Jackson.

Last year were got elite premium forwards as mid-season DPP gains. Bailey Smith, Luke Parker and Marcus Bontempelli. Who’s to say in 2023, we don’t get a similar tier of options? Factoring in these variables is an exciting challenge in the game.

Our forward division is already stacked for premiums up the top, value selection in the middle and plenty of cows. While the ruck might be thin at the range or below Cameron, there are options. For example, Scott Lycett is cheaper in all formats and has had three 80+ seasons in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & three 90+ in SuperCoach. So as good as Cameron might be at his price point, he’s not the only consideration.

Being the number one ruckman in an AFL side does take a toll on you. And last year, it did with Cameron. As good as he started in the role, his scoring did start to slide across the format. In the final eight games of the year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged just 79 and went at 82 in SuperCoach.

He should hold or improve his fitness to play out the season. But equally, oppositions could also have more data and plans to combat him. Nothing is ever certain in fantasy footy.

Darcy is a great player to consider this pre-season because both sides of the argument of holding or fading hold weight. Both feel they are easy decisions and that the other side is overthinking the situation. So what he ends up delivering in the coming season is one of the season’s most interesting outcomes.

DRAFT DECISION

One of the hardest players to rank in 2023 is Darcy Cameron. Do people rank and draft him based on a particular positional status? Or does his DPP increase his ranking range? Game formats, league sizes and the number of participants will ultimately inform where he gets picked.

In SuperCoach, I can see her going in the range of an F2, which is around the sixth round. While in AFLFantasy, he’ll be an F1 for many and likely go a round or so earlier.

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