Tag: Josh Dunkley

Trading Out Injured Premiums in Fantasy Footy
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It’s the trade current owners are dreading to make. But due to a shoulder injury suffered on the weekend and subsequent decision to get surgery has meant one thing. It’s for us to trade out Josh Dunkley in all salary cap versions of Fantasy Footy. On top of this, Lachie Neale will require surgery on his ankle and will almost miss multiple months of footy. He too is a must trade out player. But who should we be looking at as trade targets?

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Forward Options

It’s not a pretty sight, beyond Josh Dunkley there isn’t many forwards banging the door down across the formats, but with that said we still do have some options. Firstly, the enigma that is Jack Ziebell. It’s a role with scoring ceiling that nobody saw coming, as a result he is someone that we need to at least consider.

A combination of North’s defensive general Luke McDonald suffering a long term injury and the footy living inside their defensive 50 means their skipper is seeing plenty of footy is his new role. For as long as he has this role he’s going to show a high scoring ceiling and be someone to consider. However, the bigger question is, can you pay for him at peak price? Personally, I’m not convinced.

Based on Steele Sidebottom’s 130 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 119 in SuperCoach last weekend, he’s a prime option for coaches to consider. The Pies play Gold Coast, North Melbourne and a slowing Sydney over the next 3 weeks. You might be thinking to yourself, sure he’s had one good score, but can you bring him in after that? Simply, yes! He doesn’t just have one good score. He has a decade of good scores, as we spoke about in the preseason. It’s not a flashy pick, but it’s as safe as a premium forward as we can get in 2021.

The injury for Lachie Neale is far from ideal for the Lions, but it probably does mean it forces their skipper Dayne Zorko back into an exclusive midfield role. With three scores over 108 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, the lowest score of 71 and an average of 99 in these formats, his current season is back up his reliable history.

In SuperCoach, he has 4 tons between 101-115 and is averaging 94. If you do target him as the option, keep in mind that in round 9, he’ll reacquaint himself with Touk Miller in another famous battle. He’s often come off worse for wares from a fantasy perspective in those clashes.

Other across the formats I like are Shai Bolton, Toby Greene and Rowan Marshall. All have the combination of scoring legacy and current form to match. While maybe not a coaches first choice, they are viable options in a line that has arguably the least variety of selections.

In AFLFantasy, you have many options to consider that neither DreamTeam nor SuperCoach players have due to the round 6 DPP additions. In no particular order, any of Nat Fyfe, Josh Kelly and Lachie Hunter are genuine options.

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Rucks Options

Just 2 weeks ago, the greatest headache for most coaches was the absence of R2 selection Matt Flynn. While he had a dominant first term against the Dogs, he had no impact on the contest after half time. So it wouldn’t surprise me to see Shane Mumford return.

The injuries to Neale and Dunkley provide Flynn R2 truthers with the chance to move on their R3 up to one of Reilly O’Brien, Max Gawn or Brodie Grundy. Even without an R/F at R3, you can still make that move, even if it is a trade pairing that creates a structural shuffle. For example, a downgrade of Dunkley/Neale to a Jy Farrar while upgrading Lloyd Meek to the other premium ruck target you desire is an easy way to restructure your team.

With the Giants playing on Saturday at 2:10pmEST, coaches will know before the round starts whether he’s named or not. Regardless, if it’s not this week, then next week, you need to have a plan to avoid another impending donut.

Midfield Options

You can throw a dozen different names into the mix for this line. But across the formats, any of Clayton Oliver, Jack Macrae, Jack Steele, Sam Walsh or Zach Merrett has been consistently dominant premiums. You can’t go wrong with any of these topline picks. And in most weeks, they are genuine VC/C options across the formats.

Other legit top candidates are Adam Treloar, Christian Petracca, Tom Mitchell, Mitch Duncan, Marcus Bontempelli, or you could go left field in Jarryd Lyons or even Cam Guthrie. They’ve all got a great history of scoring now over several years.

If low ownership is the prime objective, then you’ve got a few to gamble on. Touk Miller and Darcy Parish are thriving without some of their bigger name teammates out through injury. The suitcase Hugh McCluggage and Jaeger O’Meara have also been on fire lately, and while they might not have the frequency of ceiling that others do, they are highly unique and scoring well.

Defender Options

Every team is unique in their make up, even moreso now with these popular premiums out injured. Before we look at the defensive targets to look for, I want to remind you about 3 players you might want to save room for.

Firstly, Jordan Ridley. Barring any complications, he’ll return this week from a concussion. After delivering coaches, an injury impacted 31 in SuperCoach and 15 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam; he’s got some price drops incoming. Depending on the format you play, he’s set to drop between $50,000-$100,000. At that price point, given his scoring pre concussion, he’s gonna be a perfect buy low option.

The second is Caleb Daniel. In that past few seasons, he’s proven to be a 90+ averaging defender across the formats. By this time next week, he’ll be under $400,000 in SuperCoach, under $500,000 in DreamTeam and almost $550,000 in AFLFantasy. That’s a bargain given his previous years and pore suspension scoring.

My only hesitation in advocating for him is the improvement of Bailey Dale. His past four weeks have been excellent, and he’s certainty gaining his fair share of the Bulldogs defensive ball. The ‘helmut’ will still be good. But he might have his ceiling dinted slightly.

Lastly, it’s the forgotten star of the backline Lachie Whitfield. According to the club’s website, he’s likely to play VFL this week before returning to the AFL the following week. If he can get back to full fitness, he’s certainly someone every coach would ideally want in their completed side. So maybe you can save a space for him as an upgrade after the Giants round 12 bye.

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If, after those names, you’re still in the market for a premium defender, we have plenty of options. Callum Mills is the leading points scorer across all game formats and has low ownership compared to the other top tier options. His teammate Jake Lloyd isn’t having as big a year as previous, but he’s still right in the mix for being the top defender by seasons end.

Rory Laird and Sam Docherty are probably next in a line across all formats, with the latter starting to really get going in the last few rounds. I also like Tom Stewart and his reliable scoring range, even if he does lack some of the ceiling of others on this list.

Other options to consider are Jack Bowes, Dan Houston, Christian Salem and Jack Crisp. The return of Bachar Houli has slowed the scoring of Jayden Short for the past few weeks. If I were an owner, I wouldn’t panic trade him. But unless Houli gets a long term injury, I wouldn’t be looking at him too seriously now.

In SuperCoach, Daniel Rich is ranked 5th for all defenders and should be some to have on the watchlist at the very least.

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Supercoach Weekend Wrap | Round 5
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Read Time:3 Minute, 45 Second

As Monty Python’s “The Life Brian” reminds us, we’ve always got to look on the bright side of life. For despite another round of carnage for many coaches there were plenty of positives to take away from this weekend’s games. Let’s at least name some of these before moving to the more critical issues many have to deal with. 

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Nine tons from the Eagles meant there were plenty of coaches happy with some of their selections. Liam Duggan top scored and Alex Witherden had a great debut. There’s a couple of possible options in an already packed defensive line. 

The Bulldogs do what the Bulldogs do and have such great midfield depth that plenty get on the scoreboard. Josh Dunkley, Jackson Macrae, and Marcus Bontempelli were all exceptional for our teams. Even when Bont goes forward he still manages to grab the points we want him to, it’s just a beautiful thing right now. 

Surely we all want Lance Franklin to reach 1000 goals in his career. If that’s the case then we may see more scores like that on Saturday. It was a tough loss in the end for the Swans, mind you, all us Matt Flynn owners are possibly in for a tough few weeks still as Shane Mumford and his 669 owners continue to celebrate. He was the highest scorer and only ton for GWS.

Port Adelaide did a number on Carlton and also had plenty of 100’s. Sam Walsh the only consolation for Blues fans with a terrific 144.

Lachie Neale did what all his owners have wanted him to do all season. He showed what he’s capable of and the high ceiling he has. His fellow midfielder, Hugh McCluggage was also impressive and is perhaps one to keep an eye on. Zach Merrett the only positive for the Dons. 

There were some good scores in the Crows–Dockers game. David Mundy keeps going, Liam Ryan another good option for us in the backline, Nat Fyfe and Andrew Brayshaw all in the mix as well. 

Reilly O’Brien looks like a genuine upgrade target for those, like me, having to deal with a disastrous ruck situation. Locking him in alongside Max Gawn, who absolutely dominated and is now the number one scorer not only in his position but overall, would be a consistent combo. 

Geelong didn’t have to do too much to beat North, but Tom Stewart and Sam Menegola certainly provided a helpful lift for some coaches. Jack Ziebell continues on with his excellent scoring and is currently the third best forward in the game. 

See, there are plenty of positives to talk about. But, yes, you’re right. There are issues galore as well. One way to look at this past weekend is to see it through the tale of the Jordan’s.

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Friday night didn’t go well for any Pies supporters or Jordan De Goey coaches. Having to deal with a score of 4 just makes it a tough round, having him drop by $57.6k is salt into the wounds, and then the fact that he’ll miss next week as well. I don’t know what that is, death by a 100 papercuts? Coaches will have to decide though, is it an easy sell or a gutsy hold? 

The other Jordan is old mate Jordan Ridley. Off with concussion saw his score stand at 31 and he’ll also miss the ANZAC Day clash. What made this one worse for many coaches was the decision to offload Caleb Daniel to upgrade to him. That is the definition of carnage. 

And the final Jordan worth mentioning here is Jordan Clark. These rolling team selections are causing issues every weekend and this week over 50% of teams were impacted by his omission from the Cats squad.

There’s more we could speak of here too; Mumford taking Flynn’s spot in the ruck, breakevens creeping higher and higher for a number of our rookies, and the few downgrade options coming through. 

Whatever weekend you had, I hope you make decisions you’re happy with in the coming days. After all, we’ve got to look on the bright side don’t we? 

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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AAMI Community Series Review | Bulldogs Vs Demons
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If you believe in changing your team mid AAMI community series, then this clash would’ve given your fantasy footy apps a workout. With premiums delivering big numbers, we got alot to take away from the Bulldogs and Demons game.

Bontempelli

He’s not bad at football hey? Just remember he did the exact same thing in last year during the preseason.

Macrae

He also goes ok at this game, for those who hadn’t noticed yet.

Dunkley

Ok let me elaborate on this one because there have been questions raised – by his own coach no less – about Dunkley’s current footballing ability. So nevermind the score and the fact he played mids, the key thing here is that he played mids with a clearly defined run-with role and he thrived on it. Playing accountable means he plays, and he plays near a man to cuddle. Double figure tackle numbers in preseason is an excellent display which makes me (and hopefully Bevo) very happy.

Daniel

Rocketed out of the gates but slowed down as he copped a little more attention. Expect him to cop a lot this year. Depending on whether you were keen on him or not, confirmation bias is easily found in one of the two halves of today’s match.

Martin & English

Double-teamed Gawn and nullified influence. Martin looks like he has a new lease on life while English did a pretty good impression of a key forward at times. The two will give a lot of teams a lot of grief in the ruck this year, meaning the Dogs aren’t necessarily giving up bulk points in that department like they have in recent history. Given English played a lot forward, keep in mind that forwards might score well against Melbourne but perhaps less so against other teams. Handy if he does gain DPP in the formats which allow that.

Hunter & Smith

On the eye test both were pushed out of the midfield a lot tonight; Hunter to the half-forward line and Smith to the wing. Both did a lot of damage in their respective roles. Does this allow Treloar to slot straight into the mid rotations?

Scott

Not often we get a bottom priced 25 year old rookie in the mix for rd 1. This is exactly what we got. Scott didn’t do his chances any harm at all in this game. He kicked a couple of goals, rotated through the flanks. He obviously was rookied (from the dogs VFL squad) for a role.

McNeil

Played the pressure small fwd role through the game. Wasn’t prolific but did snag himself a goal. This game he didn’t bang the door down but will stay in contention for early games.

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May

Mopped up everything that went into the forward line that didn’t go through the big sticks. Unfortunately went off very sore after a marking contest and missed the last part of the game, so monitor news in the coming days.

Gawn

Dominated the ruck but had little of his trademark influence around the ground. As noted above, the Martin and English combo will annoy a lot of big men this year.

Harmes

Not the best player, but maybe the most enthusiastic. Spent a lot of time dancing without finding a partner or a possession and there must be questions about a midfield role once Brayshaw Viney & Oliver return. Does he go back to tagging, or back to the backline, or back to the VFL?

Petracca

Barely got out of first gear but got well acquainted with Dunkley for awhile. No reason not to pick him if you were already keen.

Langdon

Ok yes I know, but hear me out. If this week is anything to go by (and that does remain to be seen, it is a small sample size after all), it does appear as though this is the sort of year where running half backs who can create space and overlap and nail the 45 kick are getting a lot of easy marks and possessions. And that’s what Langdon did. Make of that what you will.

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Patreon Exclusive | MJ’s Keeper League MVP’s
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This isn’t a list of the top 10′ or the best keeper league players. Rather it’s a combination of players that I believe are the most valuable keeper league options. Here are my keeper league MVPs.  

Tim Taranto

Finding midfielders capable of averaging 100 isn’t super difficult in keeper leagues. But finding ones that have a proven capacity of 110+ is rare. At just 23 years old, Tim Taranto has another 8+ seasons of premium territory footy. 

Matt Rowell

Like another player I’ll write about later, Matt Rowell is one of the most hyped players in keeper leagues and understandably. His handful of AFL games showed his dominance, and he’ll only get better as time goes on. Lock him in and throw away the key. 

Jake Lloyd

At 27 years old, Jake Lloyd is one of the oldest players on my MVP list. But why does he make the MVP? Simple! He’s got positional security as a top end premium. To own a clear top tier forward or defender that retains that position annual is near impossible. More often, the players ‘breakout’ year coincides with them moving into the midfield full time. For example, from 2020, it was Christian Petracca or Jy Simpkin. 

With Lloyd, you get premium midfield scoring in the backline and with the Swans still trying to fit Isaac Heeney and Callum Mills into the midfield; you can breath easy that Lloyd will retain defensive status. To have these scores for another 4-5 seasons should keep your keeper side in the finals run annually.  

Reilly O’Brien

It feels like Reilly O’Brien is a scoring clone of Brodie Grundy. While there might only be 12 months difference in age, the range of where ‘ROB’ gets drafted makes him more valuable to me. Why? Because I believe the scoring gap between the 2 is minimal. You will probably have to draft him anywhere between 1-2 full rounds later; it provides you with potential more value and upside. 

Lachie Whitfield

At 26 years old, Lachie Whitfield isn’t the young ‘up and comer’ from a few seasons ago. Now he’s a genuine premium after delivering well over the past 3 years. In that time, he’s been eligible as a forward, defender and midfielder. The beauty of Lachie is that regardless of where he plays, he scores. And even if he spends more time through the midfield, you can argue that his scoring capacity increases, so you don’t lose. 

Sam Walsh

This shouldn’t be too difficult to understand. He’s 20 years old and has shown since day one that he’s got a premium midfielder written all over. If you were in a new keeper league, he’s a genuine candidate for the #1 pick overall. If you manage to snag him outside of the first round, consider yourself a big winner.  

Josh Dunkley

OK, this one is controversial, so let me explain. Josh Dunkley has huge fantasy footy scoring proven potential. A look across his 2018 and 2019 seasons should remind us all of that. But the hesitation coaches have with him is around his role predictability. 

But think of it more broadly, what’s the potential upside and downside? Upside, he plays midfield and scores enough to be pushing for the top scoring midfielder year in and year out. Downside? He spends a bulk of time inside forward 50 and has his average hover around 80. In that case, you get a regular forward who has the potential to pop a 100+ monster depending ion the week. Honestly, you can’t lose in this option. 

Clayton Oliver

Always durable, always consistent, and last year Clayton Oliver showcased his ceiling. The emergence of Christian Petracca actually helped him. With ‘CP5’  viewed as more dynamic and influential, opposition teams would often clamp down more on him. That would allow Oliver to be less accountable outside of the stoppage and be used more in general play. 

23 year olds who have 3 years averaging 105+ and haven’t missed a game of footy and super rare! It’s why he makes this list. It’s the perfect combination—high scoring and durability.  

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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#15 Most Relevant | Josh Dunkley
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Read Time:7 Minute, 2 Second

During the trade period, Josh Dunkley attempted to move to Essendon to play more through the midfield. However, after staying at the Bulldogs could this son of a gun still get his wish?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Josh Dunkey
Age: 24
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: MID/FWD

2020 Highest Score: 
108 Vs St Kilda (AFLFantasy)
151 Vs West Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
189 Vs Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2019)
202 Vs Melbourne | SuperCoach (2019)

2020 Average: 
77.7 (AFLFantasy) | 97.1 (Adjusted Average)
104.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $560,200
AFLFantasy Price: $741,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $717,700

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2020 was a crazy year for Josh Dunkley. He could find himself playing as a defensive forward from an on-field perspective, then a ball winning midfielder and even as a pinch hitting ruckman. While off-field it was the on again, off again trade to Essendon which eventually fell through.

With the constant change and the shorter quarters it ultimately impacted his possession count for the year. It dropped by 10 per game to 18, but his tackle count (average 6.1) and goals (average 0.5) held. He ranked 4th for tackles per game across the league, 4th for tackles inside 50 per game and 20th for handballs per game.

Despite the role rollercoaster ride of his role his SuperCoach season as a whole held strong. He opened the season with a three game average of 108 including two scores over 128. However, from then until round 10 Dunks was sidelined with a serious ankle injury.

Upon his return, he played the remaining 8 games, scored 3 tons including a 151 and delivered the lowest score of 87. From a seasonal perspective, he ended the year averaging 104. Not bad for a guy who’s role would change constantly. The positive for SuperCoachers is that regardless of the role he’s asked to execute, Josh finds a way to score well.

In AFLFantasy and DreamTeam the scoring highs and lows were more pronounced and yet he still scored three tons and an additional score over 80.

2019 saw us with a similar theme. That being that of Josh’s role being fluid within the team. Over the opening six weeks of the season, Dunkley spent his time primarily as a forward.  From a fantasy footy perspective, he was averaging 77 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 85 in SuperCoach.

Across all formats, he failed to raise the ton during this time. Thankfully it didn’t stay this way for the whole year. From round seven onwards he was released into the midfield and with stunning scoring results.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam DT over the final sixteen matches, he scores 14 tons, 9 of them were above 120, and 4 over 140 and an average of 123 after the move.

It was an even stronger return in SuperCoach. From the final 16 matches after the midfield move he posted 14 tons, eight were over 120 and four over 150. One of these was when Dunks joined the elite SuperCoach history with his score of 202. He had only two scores below 100, with his lowest 88. In terms of average, he went at 127 after the move.

I don’t even need to go into his 2018 data trends, because you get the idea. When given ample midfield time Josh Dunkley has the potential to end the season as the #1 fantasy football forward in all formats of the game.

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MY TAKE

One of the things that helped the Dogs win them the premiership in 2016 was versatility and flexibility. The negative for fantasy coaches is that when players are used unpredictably in multiple roles, it can be challenging to have confidence in selecting a player, especially if one of those secondary roles isn’t fantasy-friendly.

Throughout the 50 Most Relevant series I’ve spoken at length about what the addition of Adam Treloar might add to the Bulldogs mix. And which if any players will have a subsequent fantasy football scoring decrease.

Even if Dunkley is one of the midfielders with a rotation or two impacted, his ability to add forward pressure and convert on the scoreboard makes him a damaging option when needed inside forward 50. Just look back at his debut season of 2016. He posted 8 scores north of 8 including 4 tons in AFLFantasy and 5 times scoring 80+ including a 99 in SuperCoach. I think regardless of the role he is needed to fill; Josh will score well.

Dunkley offers something that Treloar, Macrae, Smith and Bont don’t. As an individual, he boasts a high end defensive workrate, but not at the cost of ball winning. No other Bulldogs midfielder has that skill combination of Josh.

The fact Josh Dunkley didn’t just recover from that syndesmosis injury in his left ankle but played in a variety of roles is incredible. How? Ask anyone connected to the kennel; Dunks is the most focussed, professional and hardworking player at the club. If he can come back from that injury and deliver a sold back half of the season. Imagine what he can do with a full preseason under his belt? One thing is certain; he’s desperate to highlight his worth this season to current and potential future suitors.

Selecting Josh, or any other player for that matter has an element of risk in the selection. And like any risk, it can be viewed from both perspectives. One angle pf viewing the risk is that given the bounty of midfield options the Bulldogs have you find yourself with zero confidence in his role, and thus his scoring variation could yo-yo weekly. Why choose the potential chaos of variation when you can just be safe and lock in someone like a Dustin Martin instead?

The 180-degree perspective is that if Josh Dunkley does have enough midfield minutes, he’s got the scoring ceiling to match it with the best in the game. After 3-5 rounds of him going 125-140, you’d have to adjust strategies to bring him in drastically. Otherwise, he could do something similar that Lachie Neale did in 2020 and take the season away from you quickly.

What do you need to see in the AAMI community series to pick him or pass on him? Ultimately whatever your pre-existing view is already, then it will likely confirm your existing perspective. Because if he plays midfield, you’ll either be further convinced of that being his role or think it’s Luke Beveridge just spinning the magnets in a game that doesn’t matter.

I’m starting him everywhere. I think the risk of him failing as a selection is as real as the potential of him smashing it. For me, I’d rather lean on the side of the ceiling upside with the knowledge that his downside isn’t as catastrophic as many believe.

Others, however, will be different and see the same things but take a different conclusion. And that’s what I love about fantasy footy. We can all see the same data but justifiably come to different conclusions. That’s what the preseason is about, starting a conversation, looking at possibilities and then backing your gut and do what you believe is right for you.

DRAFT DECISION

The drafting range of Josh Dunkley is fascinating to me. In some leagues, he’s a later first round selection. Others believe the risk of insufficient midfield time isn’t worth jumping inside the first five rounds.

Generally, the truth is somewhere in the middle. And given the lack of top end forwards I genuinely believe Dunkley will depart somewhere between the second and third rounds.

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About Post Author

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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What Do I Do with Josh Dunkley?
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Read Time:7 Minute, 42 Second

Last night news broke that Josh Dunkley will miss the next few weeks with a foot injury. With the club confirming it is at least six weeks the decision to trade has been made for fantasy coaches, the question is who does Dunks become?

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The Double Game Week

Each format chose to handle the postponed Essendon and Melbourne match. As such this section his isn’t relevant for AFLFantasy coaches. However, for DreamTeam and SuperCoach players, the forced trade of Josh Dunkley could help you get a handy upper hand.

Over the weekend both SC and DT announced that as part of the postponement at some point during the season the Essendon and Melbourne game will be incorporated into either it’s own or another exiting round. By osmosis that will mean the Demons and Bombers will, in essence, play two games in one round. This is where those who had (and trade-in) Demons/Don could gain the upper hand in one specific week. While it’s yet to be announced when this will happen if coaches are smart, they can make a change to their team that also helps prepare to maximise points in the round whenever it happens.

The two obvious midfield candidates to replace Dunkley are Clayton Oliver and Zach Merrett. Clarry is currently averaging 113 in SuperCoach and 87 in DreamTeam and has shown over previous years has shown he’s a genuine top 10 performing midfield candidate. For Merrett, an average of 91.7 in DreamTeam and 135 in SuperCoach shows that on his day he’s a premium and a good captaincy option. Even if the doubleheader is still several weeks away, both are around the mark for a top tier premium midfield options, so bringing them in now isn’t limiting your side’s performance in the short term.

Midfielders Jack Viney, Dylan Shiel and Andrew McGrath, would also be fine scoring options during this double game round. However, I wouldn’t advocate for trading them in until some clarity is given for when the game is scheduled.

Through the wonders of DPP trading, Max Gawn and Christian Petracca are clear top-line premiums in their allocated lines and are worthy of being brought into your side regardless of if a double game week was in motion or not.

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The Premium Picks

The exercise all coaches should be undertaking right now is determining who you believe from now will be the top-scoring premiums across all lines. The researched decisions should give you a fair indication on which players to target and who could be the ripe candidates to bring in from now based on a combination of role, price and upcoming fixture.

Let’s start with the obvious candidate, Lachie Neale. He’s the leading points scorer in all fantasy formats of the game and is one of the few premiums across formats that have delivered career-best stats over the opening three rounds of the seasons. For around $50,000 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, you can quickly move Josh Dunkley to a man currently averaging 114. In SuperCoach it’s a little more of a stretch to obtain him. It’ll cost you $137,000 to top up to Neale. However, an average of 164 and a match coming up against the spluttering Adelaide Crows.

Given what opposition has done over recent weeks, it’s not going to be pretty without him. The critical question when paying top money for any premium is ‘does outlaying all this cash on one player (as opposed to multiple) give me the most points on the field? On current trend, it’s looking like Lachie is the dominant premium midfielder in 2020. While I believe there are comparable options in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam at a lower price, in SuperCoach if you don’t have Neale it’s going to be hard to win it all.

Don’t forget, if you’re going for overall rankings you will need something unique at some point in the year? And right now coaches sitting near the top of the ranks already own Neale. Perhaps a move to something ‘less popular’ at the top of the scoring tree might be more required for your rankings goals.

Along with Neale in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam Andrew Gaff appears to be one of the few premium performers still averaging over 100. A season-low of 98 shows that while he might not have hit the ceiling of other premiums this year, his scoring basement is considerably higher than most. It’ll cost you a little bit of your salary cap to put on top of him, but he has multiple years of proving his durability and a high scoring consistency. The additional appeal is his relative low ownership with just 8% in AFLFantasy and 13% in DreamTeam.

Adam Treloar looks set to play his first game of the season against the Giants. That brings with itself an element of risk, given we don’t know how if the shorter quarter help or hinder his scoring. That said, the potential of trading in a historically proven 110 midfielder with crazy low ownership while risky is appealing.

In SuperCoach if you have Lachie Neale your already sitting pretty. The next obvious missing midfield candidate could be Nat Fyfe. An average of 139.7 and a season-low score of 110 make him a prime trade-in option via Dunks. Additionally, if your cash strapped and can’t afford Neale then Fyfe could average comparable against the Suns and Crows over the next two weeks and be $60k cheaper.

If your looking for low ownership but high ceiling candidate, then either of Travis Boak or Steele Sidebottom might just be the perfect fit for you. The former Power skipper is currently sitting fifth in SuperCoach and seventh in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam for total points. While for Sidey he’s ranked third in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and ninth in SuperCoach for total points.

His teammate Jackson Macrae got ‘bevridged’ with a role adjustment in round two. However, last week he was back through the midfield where he belongs. The departure of Dunkley should only even further consolidate his spot as a midfield general and non-owners. Jack’s a proven performer over multiple years and unlike others on the list is someone who in most matches is a good captaincy option starting this Thursday night against the Swans… VC candidate someone 😉

Through the wonders of DPP and with multiple DEF/MID and MID/FWD rookies available you can turn him into almost any premium on another line should no midfielders appeal. Michael Walters, Jake Lloyd, Chad Wingard and even a Todd Goldstein amongst others all could be easily traded in should the DPP links and cash be available to you.

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The Value Picks

The hype player of the week to trade-in is North Melbourne’s Jy Simpkin. The Roos youngster looks to be having his breakout year, an average of 125 in SuperCoach has him currently the #1 forward in the game. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s currently fifth for total points. On current trend, he’s looking likely as a top 10 scoring forward by seasons end.

Sydney’s Oliver Florent is having a breakout season that’s quietly going under the radar. An average of 98 in SuperCoach and the lowest score of 95 means he’s well on track for a personal best. A trade from Dunkley to Florent could get you $130,000. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s averaging 77 and still has plenty of cash to generate. The key with Florent is that he’s a highly unlikely ‘keeper’ in your finished side, meaning the only reason for a value move like this is if you use the cash saved from this immediately to improve another player in your team.

I remain unconvinced he’s a top tier premium defender, but you could do worse than moving Brayden Maynard into your side. Currently ranked second for total points among defenders across all formats and at under $500k in SuperCoach and $621k in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’d also net some handy cash to make other moves. It feels crazy to do, but yet again this is a crazy year. For example, Dan Butler is a top 10 points scorer in our forward lines. It feels like anything is possible in 2020.

Lastly, Bailey Smith, like many on this list, is having a breakout year. With the departure of Dunkley from the midfield, any concerns coaches might have had about his role should be dismissed. If you think he’s destined to be a top tier forward in 2020, then he certainly pushes towards an obvious inclusion for non-owners.

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Fantasy Footy | Trading Block | Round One
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Read Time:8 Minute, 8 Second

Round one delivered liquorice all sorts of scoring. The premiums and mid-price players that provided strong scores brought a smile to our face. However, with some premiums failing to deliver on the scoreboard, coaches must ask the question? Should I trade this player out?

In this article, we discuss the strategies for coaches heading into this round and whether you should cut your losses or hold firm and retain a player’s services.

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Fantasy Football Trading Dilemma

Every year in the early portions of the season, we face ourselves with a significant dilemma. The dilemma is this, what do I do when my (insert player name) didn’t deliver as expected? Even the most experienced coaches can agonise over the moves they make. Ultimately success in all formats of fantasy footy comes at the trading table. A strong starting squad is undoubtedly helpful, but it’s the trades you make in the season that will define success.

I can empathise with coaches torn over what trades to make. This year more than ever with increased trades available in round two than we’ve had before. Added to this, experienced coaches will know that far too often, we have seen players start slow and then storm home after a quite first month. Conversely, players have started and then maintained a scoring trend well below expected. Luck will ultimately play a critical factor in everything, but good coaches minimise the impact it can have on your season with sound research and a wise decision-making process.

With the decisions we make, we must approach each category of player with a different mindset. For the sake of this article, we’ll classify players into three groups—premiums, midprice and cash cows. Let’s address the easiest of these first, the cash cow.

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Cash Cows

The sole objective of cash cows/rookies is one thing, generate the cash required to trade in premium scoring players. Simply put, if you have missed good scoring cash cow and find yourself with a sub par option instead, then some of your trade dilemmas are solved. For example, if you do not own Marlion Pickett or Sam Sturt and both are named for this week then one of the first prioritise you must make is to trade them into your side.

Without your basement scoring players increasing in value, you’ll not have even a chance to finish your team with the best scoring candidates. Similarly, if a player isn’t playing, you cannot generate funds from them, of all ‘categories’ of players, the ones that should have the least emotional attachment and the easiest to move on.

Premiums

As a parent of three children, I can tell you that the phrase I hear most often in life is ‘but why?‘ Just like in fantasy footy, the critical question we need to ask when analysing an underwhelming premiums scores is ‘why‘? The answer to that should well determine the course of action you take.

Has the player’s role changed significantly? Did you miss some worrying trends in their preseason in the hope that perhaps it was just a coach experimenting? Coaches with Jake Lloyd in the backline will have observed his presence more on the wings against the Crows much like late last year. Before his price changes too substantially, is it the right time to move him on? Additionally, can you move him to another topline defender and use the extra cash to fix up another part of your team?

Did an injury occur during the match that forced the coaches hand? The Kangaroos had only one on the bench for large portions of the game. It’s a safe bet that changed some of the plans of both sides. Did this factor into the Dockers mindset when letting Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters over 90% of the game? Possibly!

Did the side they play in just get blown out of the water? Many have considered moving on Josh Dunkley after his poor round one score. A rampant Magpie army destroyed his bulldogs. However, what was the cause of this? Did Dunkley have a role change? The stats suggest that isn’t the case, he attended 17 centre bounces, only Marcus Bontempelli, Taylor Adams and Brodie Grundy attended more in the game. I’d suggest that while his scoring was below par, the role was there and that instead of the Bulldogs midfield just got dominated. Will his unfortunate scoring trends continue? Possibly, but it certainly wasn’t for fear of a role change.

Have the shortened quarters impacted the scoring? Some players thrive on a high time on the ground, while others are more limited in bursts. Have the shortened quarters helped or hindered this premium performer? Has the side they played got an elite tagger?

Ultimately, every score has a why attached to it.

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Midprice

Also known as stepping stones. These are players that aren’t priced (or previously scored like) a premium player. You selected them initially in the hope that they would either turn into one or get you to a fallen premium quickly. For example, in SuperCoach, Tom Lynch the premiership Tiger flew home in 2019, and 8% of coaches now have a relatively easy choice to make. A score of 55 was well below par, and with a breakeven of 92, it’s safe to suggest that even with a blinding score he isn’t the midprice forward flying out of the blocks with a big price bump. At $388,800 a quick trade to Jy Simpkin might be tempting? Coming off a score of 131 and with a breakeven of 14 even with scores around 70 over the next two games, he’d still make you a crisp $50,000.

With the extra trades available to you this week, coaches can afford to be more aggressive with the moves you make. Previously you might have waited a week or two with your stepping stones whereas now you can be more ruthless with the trades.

Just a once-off?

One of the harder dilemmas facing coaches, especially in DreamTeam is do you have enough trades to complete your side and use multiple correctional trades. For example, if you started with Matt Crouch, his 54 was a long way from the 105-110 averaged you’d hoped for. At $767,500 and breakeven of 137, do you have the number of trades required to be as aggressive as say SuperCoach? Twenty-four trades, as opposed to 30, is a big difference. A move from Crouch to Jack Viney would net you $172,000, and while the cash would be handy to use elsewhere, we must consider a few things.

One, what do you believe from now the scoring difference from Viney and Crouch is for the rest of the season? The answer to that will be one of the keys to deciding the trade. Remember, it’s not just a straight Crouch Vs Viney decision. It’s Viney + how you use that salary cap saved vs Crouch.

Finally, how many trades do you forecast it’ll take for you to get a completed side? With only 16 rounds to go, you probably have between 10-12 upgrade trades to make to get to genuine top-end scoring players.

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The Qualifier

Treat this as my disclaimer before trading. Every side is unique, not just by the combination of players but also because of the coach behind it all. Some coaches are aggressive in the trading mindset by nature and because of this feel comfortable pulling the trigger on certain trades.

For example, some coaches in SuperCoach would feel incredibly comfortable making the trade from Marcus Bontempelli to Jack Viney. Pocket the $183,700 to be able to use on another player trade and then should Viney not be proving to be a 110 midfielder, then move back to a bottomed-out premium (perhaps even back to Bont) in a few weeks time.

If he were your only underperforming premium, then I’d be likely to make that move. Other coaches might be more aligned to backing in the premium they picked and hope that as good as Viney was, it was an outlier and that he’ll go back to a 95-100 midfielder for the year. The key is that it comes down to the needs of the individuals. Every side has unique needs, priorities and focuses. Before making any trades, make sure you’ve done the following:

  • An analysis of your team
  • Factored in the shortened AFL quarters
  • Considered what the increased amount of trades means to your trading approach
  • Observed the trends from the games played so far
  • Make the moves that are best for your specific team and objectives
  • Have fun and hope like anything it goes your way

One thing is for certain, there are multiple ways of getting to your goal for the year. This year it’s true more than ever!

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Marsh Community Series Review | Power Vs Bulldogs
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Read Time:3 Minute, 23 Second

This was quite an entertaining game – both teams had great periods of attack and the wind made for an interesting finish too – Lienert covering himself in glory with the two winnings goals to finished it off. To start with however, here’s a list to keep in mind of important players who didn’t play:

Port: Wines

Western Bulldogs: Duryea, Libba, Naughton, Ed Richards

What’s interesting is that basically this was both teams’ best 22’s. The only players missing are all due to injury, so if you had your eye on someone and they didn’t play in this game and weren’t injured, it doesn’t bode well for them.

Connor Rozee

For those looking at the mid-priced forwards this year, Rozee would have been one to look at. Coming off a sensation debut year last year, Hinkley and track watchers have oft-remarked that he is naturally increasing his midfield time this preseason.

He did so again in this game though still wasn’t able to accumulate points strongly through the 2nd half, either tiring of just not getting to where the ball was.

His 81% TOG for 64 points showing him to perhaps still be a year away, however for those who remember it Fyfe had a similar game early in his 2nd season but then kicked on to really break out. Still one to watch but perhaps with a bit less confidence than prior to the weekend.

Dan Houston

It’s gonna be hard to leave this bloke out – running through the midfield again and getting quite a bit of the ball, he was then rested for the 2nd half. There wasn’t much not to like however, and the role & the scoring is looking good for the position and the price.

Scott Lycett

The major thing to come out the game for Lycett (and Ladhams?) is that Lycett went off halfway through the 3rd qtr with ice taped around his achilles. Later diagnosed as a minor ankle concern, it’s something to monitor in the lead up to Round 1.

Mitch Georgiades

One the forward rookie options that we’ve all been looking at, it just wasn’t there for us on this display. The fact that he played in this game at all is good for his Round 1 selection chances, given it was Port’s strongest team. However, seven disposals from 73% TOG as a forward is a portent of things to come in the regular season. Even if he plays Round 1, is he worth picking as a cash cow?

Bontempelli/Macrae/Dunkley

These guys all did everything you needed to see. They all played midfield and they all looked as good as ever. The Bont even had seven centre clearances to further cement that he’s a midfielder this year, and the three of them all looked like they’d be good options if you were already considering them.

Tim English

Will you go there? A ruckman on the up, he will no doubt be fantasy relevant sooner rather than later – is this the year? His role and scoring was similar both before and after Lycett went off, although his hitout win % did increase afterwards (a weakness while he still increases his size and strength).

He is certainly mobile and capable of filling out the stat sheet across the board, something which always bodes well for fantasy scoring.

Bailey Williams

More of a draft consideration, the ball seemed magnetised to him at times (Ten! Intercept possessions), reminiscent of a couple of years ago. Going late in drafts currently, he could prove to be decent value if this performance continues into the regular season.

Pat Lipinski

Also spending time in the midfield, Lipinski looked solid again and should see good worth as a forward pick up in draft leagues. Whether he’s worth it in salary cap formats or not we will have to wait and see, although he’s unlikely to see the level of scoring that the aforementioned big three will have.

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Marsh Community Series Review | Bulldogs Vs Kangaroos
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Read Time:2 Minute, 36 Second

Under an open roof, the Kangaroos came to take on the Dogs at Marvel Stadium, the ground that is fast becoming a Fantasy Feast for the Doggies, especially Bontempelli, Macrae and Dunkley and they didn’t disappoint.

North was without Higgins, Ziebell, Brown, Polec, Hall, Tarrant and LDU but brought with them a physical game, especially early on. The Dogs were without English, Naughton, Suckling, Bruce and Wood and after a tough first quarter, the Dogs got on top and pretty much cruised out the remaining game to win by a 44 point margin.

Marcus Bontempelli:

From the first bounce to the final siren looked like a Lamborghini in a Holden factory, clean, precise, articulate, smooth and creative, he brought his best, 37 disposals at 78% efficiency, 17 contested, 10 clearances, 8 tackles, 24 CBA’s and 2 last quarter goals to notch up a massive 195 SC and 151 AF points.

Read our full preseason take on him from the 50 Most Relevant Series here.

Jack Macrae:

The second amigo who along with the Bont and Dunkley started every quarter in the guts and he also amassed over 20 CBA’s. Carrying on from 2019 not much has changed.

Read our full preseason take on him from the 50 Most Relevant Series here.

Josh Dunkley

The third amigo, 21 CBA’s and every chance he’ll be the 150 point guy in his next game, these 3 are serious fantasy beasts.

Read our full preseason take on him from the 50 Most Relevant Series here.

Caleb Daniel

Started slow, more of a lockdown role early but got into the game and hit 20 disposals Hayden Crozier: 21 disposals, with 8 marks, will be one to watch more closely in the role, especially for drafts

Read our full preseason take on him from the 50 Most Relevant Series here.

Lewis Young:

The rookie defender who presented well and kicked 3 goals Jordon Sweet: Rookie ruck, filled in for English, pretty much took on the sole ruck duties against Goldy, a cheap R3.

Todd Goldstein

Predominant in the first half then shared duties with Xerri, looks fit and ready for the 2020 season, 20 of his HO’s were in the first quarter, the opposition tonight was poor.

Ben Cunnington

Solid game but needs to realise theirs more points in kicking than there is in handballing, 27 disposals for 97 SC points.

Aiden Bonar

Rookie Mid-Fwd eased into the game, 9 CBA’s and 8 tackles, 61%TOG

Read our full preseason take on him from the 50 Most Relevant Series here.

Tristan Xerri :

Rookie Ruck-Fwd played predominantly forward and took full advantage of the opportunity, just needs to find a spot Jack Mahony: Rookie Mid-Fwd didn’t really get into the game with just the 6 disposals, do rate this guy, let’s see his next game

Curtis Taylor:

Rookie Forward nice cameo including mark of the day in which he went back and slotted the goal.

Charlie Comben

Rookie Ruck-Fwd-Loop hole candidate, he did exactly what most coaches wanted him to do, not play

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#31 Most Relevant | Josh Dunkley
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Read Time:5 Minute, 41 Second

Over the final few months of the season, not many midfielders could match the scoring of Josh Dunkley. Does he retain this midfield role in 2020?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Josh Dunkley
Age: 23
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: Midfield

2019 Highest Score: 
189 Vs Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
202 Vs Melbourne (SuperCoach)

2019 Average: 
111 (AFLFantasy)
116.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $632,400
AFLFantasy Price: $824,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $803,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Winning a premiership in your first season is hard to top. However, from a personal perspective, it was Josh Dunkley’s most complete season so far. He averaged 28 possessions a game, 14 of these contested, seven score involvements and4 inside ’50s. Across the league, he was ranked 6th in the league for tackles, 11th for total disposals 19th in the league for contested possessions.

That was after a slow start. Over the opening six weeks of the season, Dunkley spent his time primarily as a forward. 

From a fantasy footy perspective, he was averaging 77 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 85 in SuperCoach. Across all formats, he failed to raise the ton during this time. Thankfully it didn’t stay this way for the whole year. From round seven onwards he was released into the midfield and with stunning scoring results.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam DT over the final sixteen matches, he scores 14 tons, 9 of them were above 120, and 4 over 140 and an average of 123 after the move.

It was an even stronger return in SuperCoach. From the final 16 matches after the midfield move he posted 14 tons, eight were over 120 and four over 150. One of these was when Dunks joined the elite SuperCoach history with his score of 202. He had only two scores below 100, with his lowest 88. In terms of average, he went at 127 after the move.

Crazily he offers some growth on the starting price. Which is insane to think of when we talk about the player who is ranked 5th for total points in all formats

You can draw the line clearly that the Dogs were a better side once that midfield unit of Marcus Bontemopelli, Jack Macrae and Dukley was leading the charge. When Dunkley played forward, Bulldogs were two wins and four losses. However, once he moved into the midfield, they went ten wins and six losses.

When the Doggies won, he was dominant on the fantasy scoreboard too. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 121.4 in wins as opposed to 98.7 in losses. A differential of 22.7. For SuperCoach he averaged 129.1 in victories and 101.3 in losses with a differential 27.8.

Josh Dunkley is far from a one-season scoring wonder. In 2018 he showed that when he’s allowed to play as a midfielder, he is one of the best fantasy scorers going around.

During the final nine games of 2018 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 112 and scored seven tons, five of them were over 110, and his lowest score was 96. For SuperCoach he averaged 115 and scored seven tons, three of them were over 130, and his lowest score was 86.

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MY TAKE

As long as Marcus Bontemeppelli and Jack Macrae are in the side, he’s zero chance of receiving a tagger. That’s a positive that many premium midfielders don’t have in the modern game.

One of the things that helped the Dogs win them the premiership in 2016 was the versatility and flexibility of their players. The negative for fantasy coaches is when players are used in multiple roles unpredictably it can be challenging to have confidence in the selection of a player, especially if one of those secondary roles isn’t fantasy-friendly.

The most significant question mark surrounding Dunkley isn’t his scoring capacity but instead whether or not he’ll have the role that he so well played towards the conclusion of 2019.

Twelve months ago, when Dunks was in the fifty most relevant, he was coming off the back of a storming end of the year. Many believed he was a lock for that midfield role, however, as we know that didn’t eventuate the whole season. Now entering into 2020 it feels like deja vu. Despite him being a genuine candidate to be the top scorer in all formats, the question mark about his role is as real now as it was twelve months ago.

You could build a case that he’s a has more risk now in a selection than he did 12 months ago. As a forward last year, the chance of him not getting midfield time meant that when he got the 70-80 scores, it didn’t hurt as much. Besides, you were only paying for him at an avg in the early ’90s. Now, he’s a premium midfielder who’s starting over 110-115 average. A forward role early would cripple your starting squad scores.

He’s got plenty of competition for spots in our midfield. Across his multi bye round, it’s stacked with significant premiums. Jack Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli, Brad Crouch, Matt Crouch, Rory Sloane, Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O’Meara, Stephen Coniglio, Tim Taranto, Josh Kelly and Callan Ward. 

There are risks involved in selecting him, and to be fair, almost every player has an element of risk. That being said, I’m confident in choosing Josh Dunkley in 2020. The Bulldogs looked phenomenal at the end of last season, and the tight midfield of Macrae, Bont and Dunkley was a core reason for the success.

It’s not very often you can argue a guy priced at over 110 is substantial value, but with this selection, you can. I believe Josh Dunkley will average over 120 in 2020. Because of that, I’m starting him.

DRAFT DECISION

He’s an M1 selection in all formats of the game and top 10 selection in drafts.

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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