Tag: Midfield

#49 Most Relevant | Callum Mills

We can get obsessed about the next ‘breakout in the preseason.’ Nothing inherently is wrong with that. But we should also be looking at those who’ve had significant regression that could present the same level of upside. It’s why Callum Mills is still a highly relevant fantasy football prospect in 2024 despite his injury.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2023 was a challenging year for Callum Mills and, understandably, for the fantasy football coaches who had high hopes for him. A midseason calf injury, a juggle of roles, and a post-season marred by shoulder surgery – it was a tough run. Yet, as we stand on the brink of a new season, it’s evident that Mills is a phoenix ready to rise from the ashes.

Despite a statistical dip in possessions, clearances, marks, tackles, goals, and overall fantasy scoring, Mills’ resilience shone through. His AFLFantasy/DreamTeam average was a respectable 84.1, featuring eight scores above 90, while in SuperCoach, his 87.7 average, with eleven scores above 90, highlighted his latent potential.

Dig deeper, and you’ll uncover the hidden gems of his season. Take, for example, his final game of the year: a staggering 30 possessions, 12 tackles, 8 marks, and a goal. This performance alone netted him 155 points in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 143 in SuperCoach, a testament to his undoubted talent.

Mills’ scoring volatility last year can largely be attributed to his fluctuating roles – from being a central player in some matches in the midfield to a peripheral figure in others. Furthermore, in two games where he was forced to don the red vest impacted his averages significantly. His average would likely have been in the mid-low 90s without these injury / vest-affected anomalies.

Flashback to just a year prior, and Mills’ prowess was undeniable. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he boasted an average of 111, outscoring renowned players like Touk Miller, Jack Steele, and Zach Merrett. His SuperCoach performance was equally impressive, with an average of 116.7, ranking him among the top scorers in this format. Fourteen scores over 100 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, fifteen in SuperCoach, with several soaring above 120 and even reaching the heights of 214 against Hawthorn. These numbers aren’t just statistics; they’re a testament to his exceptional ability when playing in the midfield.

As we approach 2024, Mills is not just a player to watch but a goldmine of potential for fantasy football coaches. The discrepancies in his recent performance have significantly undervalued him, making him an irresistible prospect. His proven track record in the midfield positions him as a contemporary fantasy football legend. The message is clear: disregard his recent setbacks. Callum is a player who demands respect and serious consideration for your team. His comeback story could be the cornerstone of your fantasy football success this year.

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MY TAKE

One of the great variables in fantasy football relevance is health. We know it intuitively in the community, but a player’s availability is one of their greatest abilities. With Callum Mills, his scoring capacity or even role aren’t the primary reasons nobody is discussing him this preseason. Rather, it’s his availability.

In September of last year, it was revealed that the Swans Co-Captain could miss a large chunk of the coming season after requiring shoulder surgery. While some corners of the AFL community believe he could miss the entirety of the season, since the revelation of his injury, the forecast length of time missed seems to be more promising to be back somewhere in the front half of the 2024 season.

One of the most common mistakes I see coaches make during the preseason is that they spend months thinking about the initial thirty players and little to no time thinking about their team’s trade cadence or player trade considerations during the year. Furthermore, the talk all preseason is about ‘chasing value’ but very quickly goes out the window as coaches start trying to trade and ‘pay up’ to get premiums in.

It’s why Callum Mills, even should he miss the opening round (which sounds all but certain), is still very relevant for us as an upgrade target. It’s the perfect spot to make his season debut in round ten. There, he plays the Blues and the Bulldogs and walks straight into the Swan’s week off on the bye. Then, from round thirteen, should he pass all the eye tests physically, you can get a player with 110 proven potential at his discounted price, which is currently approximately thirty points per game of value.

Targetting him as an upgrade during the season allows you to also look at the Swans structure and to see how John Longmire chooses to use him. Over the past few years, he’s been moved to plug holes across key position defensive posts and the wing. But the off-season inclusions of Joel Hamling and James Jordan should minimise the need to use him as the ‘gap filler’ when he does return.

Barring a miracle, Callum won’t be ready for round one and should be someone you fade in your starting squad because of this. But monitor him during the opening months of the season. If he has confidence in his shoulder and that midfield role receives no volatility, then trading into Mills isn’t just an option. It might be essential!

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DRAFT DECISION

Several variables surround the likely outcome of where Callum Mills is drafted. When your league draft is will determine a lot, as will what returning timeline information has been revealed by the club. The other primary variable is the depth of your league’s benches.

The outcomes of these pieces of information will ultimately determine whether he achieves the unfathomable and is left to super late on draft day right through to seeing him get taken inside the first 30 midfielders off the board.

The upside with Mills is that it will eventually become undeniable value on draft day, and the question shouldn’t be, will you take him, but when?

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2024 AFLFantasy, SuperCoach & DreamTeam Possible Positional Changes

Unlock AFL Fantasy & SuperCoach Success in 2024 with our positional Insights! Explore the potential positional changes for the coming season and optimize your fantasy football strategy from the Coaches Panel. Don’t miss out on the winning edge!

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Maintain Defender Status

Like every season, we’ll lose a couple of good top-end premium options, but we still retain some strong ones. Given their role for their teams deep inside defensive 50, I don’t think anyone would be shocked to see Tom Stewart, James Sicily, Luke Ryan, Nic Newman, and Dan Houston maintain pure defensive status. All found themselves amongst the top dozen options across some formats last year, and you can build a compelling case they’ll all be there again this coming year.

Last year, Harry Sheezel, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Lachie Ash, Lachie Whitfield and Jason Johannisen were among several players who all picked up defensive status during the 2023 season. These five had DPP last year, but I have them all as pure defenders in my forecast for the coming season.

Some pockets of the SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam community have Nick Daicos dropping his DEF/MID status and being just a midfielder, given his increasing midfield time as the year went on. While I can see a time coming (maybe as soon as 2025) when he is an exclusive midfielder, I’ve got some confidence he’ll be available as a DEF/MID heading into this coming season.

I’ve even seen the same pockets of the community suggest that because Hayden Young did move into the Fremantle midfield late in the year, he’ll not maintain his defensive status. But there’s zero chance of that happening; he only spent five games of his 20+ last year in the midfield. It shouldn’t even be enough for him to get DPP; I see that midfield data is not enough to create a DEF/MID, which is at ‘worst’ what he’ll be.

Before we move off the defenders that could maintain this status, it’s important to touch on Jack Sinclair. The St Kilda speedster did pick up his midfield role in 2023 in contrast to the seasons prior, but while some have him touch & go to maintain defensive eligibility, I’m confident he’ll retain it. The main factor is that he had only seven games where he attended over 40% of centre bounces, and just four were above 50%. Yes, he did spend time starting across the wings; while it won’t shock me if he did lose defensive status, I’ve got him heading into 2024 a DEF/MID.

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Gain Defender Status

At first glance, it may not feel relevant, but the new Kangaroo Zac Fisher could be a sneaky option for draft formats and in classic. The former Blue found his feet across half back in the back half of 2023 and posted some more than handy scores. There’ll be some value to be had should he get a comparable role at his new club.

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Lose Defender or Forward Status | MID Only

Many of the previous season’s topline forward eligible options lose this position yearly and become midfielders only. Heading into 2024, it’ll be no different. Unsurprisingly, last year’s best options in our forward lines will all lose DPP and be solely available as a midfielder. Josh Dunkley, Tim Taranto, Errol Gulden, Zak Butters, Connor Rozee & Zak Butters will lead the candidates of former MID/FWD’s heading into the midfield. Some might hold a vague hope that some retain DPP, but the likelihood of that happening is as likely as Christmas Day being cancelled worldwide this year.

There will likely be plenty of others like Jason Horne-Francis that fall away from MID/FWD status into MID. Still, those above six will be the big names that the SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam community will look at in classic.

The upside is you can genuinely build a compelling narrative that they all could still be relevant as a pure midfielder. They all showed they could score in the realms of the best fantasy midfielders in the game; the only difference beyond positional availability is them being considerably less owned than what they were in 2023.

I’m on the fence about what happens with Sam Flanders. But I think his heavy midfield role towards the end of the year might just cost him DPP. If he holds MID/FWD status I can see a world where his preseason hype hits fever pitch.

We’ll also see a few defenders drop out of this status and move purely into the midfield. Adelaide Crows captain Jordan Dawson will lead this crop. He ended last year with an average of attending 70% centre bounces, but from a SuperCoach & AFLFantasy perspective, he would still be someone highly desirable even as a midfielder. He ended last year ranked 4th across all formats for total points, so moving from being a DEF/MID into a straight MID shouldn’t mean his conversation as a relevant option falls away too far.

You can throw Will Day into the mix as a lock for midfield status next year. The rising star Hawk was a breakout star for us last year, but his heavy midfield role will see him lose defensive status. Sam Docherty spent too much time across the wing and through centre bounces to retain his defender status. Should this happen, we’ll see his value in drafts bottom out from the early rounds and make him lowly owned in classic. If he does lose it, he’d certainly be worth keeping an eye on for an in-season DPP allocation. I’m not as convinced, but Angus Brayshaw loses his DEF/MID status to become a midfielder again. I hope I’m wrong, but those midfield numbers kept growing as the year went on.

Much like in the forward line, the pain might be felt in the depth of keeper leagues with guys that became options to play on the field in the backline and are now just playable as midfielders. Chayce Jones, Reuben Ginbey, Tom Atkins and possibly even Darcy Wilmot, who spent plenty of time across the wings for the Lions.

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Maintain Forward Status

The top of the tree for our forward lines will be clipped, but that’s an annual occurrence. The good news is we’ll still have plenty of potentially viable scoring prospects without unpacking who might pick up forward status.

Recently, I posted a video about the new Port Adelaide ruck Ivan Soldo on our YouTube channel. Within it, I discussed the potential scoring upside he might have as the #1 ruck at the Pear, but his split of ruck and forward time last season should help him maintain RUC/FWD. Should he win the ruck battle against Jordan Sweet and hold DPP, then Soldo is a potential topline candidate. Last year, in the games he played without Toby Nankervis, he averaged 92 in AFLFantasy and 105 in SuperCoach. If he can deliver that over a full season, he needs to be looked at regardless of our forward player gains.

Speaking of potential RUC/FWD options, I still have Fremantle’s Luke Jackson maintaining this status. Some will say he only scored well when solo ruck, but that is false. There’s enough scoring upside that for draft formats, at minimum, he could provide some significant value based on the drafting position.

Isaac Henney, Toby Greene, Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton will maintain their forward eligibility. They might not ever be the top 6-10 forwards in classic, but for drafts, they’ll all play valuable roles in how we tier out this area of the ground.

During last season, Western Bulldogs pair Bailey Smith and Jackson Macrae both picked up forward status, and I’m forecasting they walk into 2024 with MID/FWD status remaining intact. The positive here is the potential for significant value. Just 12 months ago, both were coming into a new season as viable starting squad options and seen with some value baked into their price. This upside is even greater after an underwhelming season. Should one or both of these Dogs pick up the previously held midfield minutes, they both have the potential to be the top-scoring forwards across the formats.

I fully expect the new Sydney Swan Taylor Adams to keep the forward status entering into 2024 that he picked up last season. The former Magpie was squeezed out of the midfield rotation for large portions of last year. While it impacted his fantasy output in 2023, it will provide significant value at his price point alongside being forward eligible. If he can get through the coming preseason fit, he should be a key part of the Sydney midfield mix and could be one of the most highly-owned fantasy forwards entering round one.

Nobody will be shocked to see it, but I’ve got Adelaide’s Josh Rachele as a forward this coming year and firmly on my breakout radar. As a second-year player, he averaged 89 in AFLFantasy and 86 in SuperCoach in the opening seven rounds of last year. As the year went on, his midfield minutes and scoring started slowing, but it has provided moments where fantasy coaches can see a pathway forward to him scoring well. Monitor his preseason cause if Josh gets that midfield opportunity again, he could come out of the gate swinging.

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Gain Forward Status

Every year, we lose a bunch of topline forward premiums, and yet we always find a way in our starting squads to at least have that listed populated with a couple of potential replacements. Don’t be surprised if Christian Petracca jags DPP and is available as a MID/FWD in 2024. Heading into the AFL finals, he was right on the ledge of the 35% forward threshold, according to Fantasy Freko. Based on his role in Melbourne’s games, there appears to be no significant push movement. Either way, it’ll be a small percentage gap that means he either maintains his midfield status or becomes a MID/FWD. I think he will sneak over the line and enter the year as the top forward option.

How much value does Champion Data place on Brodie Grundy’s role in the VFL compared to AFL? If it’s purely just the AFL, of the seventeen games he played last year, only three were without Max Gawn, and it’s only when Gawn wasn’t playing that he attended over 55% CBA’s in a single match. I mention that percentage rate because that’s what he’s sitting at for a season summary. If it’s just pure AFL-level data, then he’s right in consideration for gaining DPP and being a RUC/FWD. However, if the VFL data where he played a heavy ruck role is factored in, he will likely be a forward. Plenty will still have Brodie locked into their starting squad conversation regardless of positional gains.

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2023 Draft Class

With the 2023 AFL draft officially over, we’re just weeks away from the announced positions for the coming seasons. Here are my projections of the positions we might see from some of the most relevant prospects.

Harley Reid | MID/FWD
Colby McKercher | MIDFIELD
Zane Duursma | MID/FWD
Jed Walter | FORWARD
Nick Watson | FORWARD
Ryley Sanders | MIDFIELD
Caleb Windsor | MIDFIELD
Dan Curtin | DEFENDER
Ethan Reed | RUCK
Nate Caddy | FORWARD
Connor O’Sullivan | DEFENDER
Phoenix Gothard | FORWARD
Koltyn Tholstrup | MID/FWD
Jake Rogers | MIDFIELD
Jordan Croft | FORWARD
Will Green | RUCK
James Leake | DEFENDER/FORWARD
Darcy Wilson | MIDFIELD
Charlie Edwards | MIDFIELD
William McCabe | DEFENDER
Riley Hardeman | DEFENDER
Cainden Cleary | MIDFIELD
Harry Demattia | MIDFIELD

2023 Coaches Panel Predictions | Midfield

The Coaches Panel members make bold predictions for the upcoming season every pre-season. These predictions are made without knowing what other members are saying, and just like you, find out as they read this article. Check out the boys predictions for the midfielders in 2023.

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Prediction for top scoring player

Rids: Rory Laird. The end.

MJ: I don’t believe he’ll have the highest average, but the top scoring player for the season will be Clayton Oiver. He finds a way to score and score big all of the time. I think he and the Demons find a scary new level of excellence in 2023.

Jordox: Andrew Brayshaw will continue his ascension to fantasy greatness with another massive year. In RDT/AF, he has added 8 points to his average every year since 2020 (if you play the x 1.25 game) and I think he’ll do it again, up to the 120 mark.

Jimmy: He flew into the top handful last year and I suspect Callum Mills will increase yet another notch again this season. 

MiniMonk: Andrew Brayshaw has all the tools to be the number one midfielder in AF/RDT this year and should push to be a top 8 in SC. He has full reign over the Dockers midfield and is able to get ball on the inside and the outside. 115+ is on the cards.

The Midprice player that fires

Rids: Jacob Hopper appears to have his body right. He is now at the right club to play full time inside mid. Ready to pop!

MJ: Let’s go a little left field, but I like what Matt Rowell has done this off-season. Yes, in the televised games, it’s been without Touk Miller. However, the impressive part has been that we’ve seen him work on and improve his uncontested possession all preseason. He’s more than just a good clearance winner and tackler; he is an excellent, well-rounded midfielder. Having his first complete AFL preseason will put him in good shape to ‘pop’ this year. 

Jordox: James Worpel doesn’t need to do a heap to be a great pick as his price is much lower than most of the other common midpricers. He will have all the opportunities to become a prime mover in that young midfield and I think he’ll take them.

Jimmy: Third time lucky for Will Setterfield? The role looks to be there and he’s shown glimpses before – talent has never been the question. Think he’s finally landed where he belongs. 

MiniMonk: Finn Callaghan is at such a cheap price that he basically cannot fail. Yes, he might not be getting into their midfield mix, but his wing role will be primed for him and he showed that he can find the space to accumulate the ball.

The Midprice player that is a bust

Rids: Dom Sheed. Has been very popular. I just don’t like the Eagles mid-mix at all. They look like they will be poor again too this year. At some stage they will need to get games into the kids.

MJ: James Worpel. He boasts amazing intensity and effort, but his decision-making with the ball is disastrous. Eventually, players like that get overtaken in rebuilding sides. A good sign for the Hawks would be the ‘need’ to play Worpedo as a centre bounce mid in their best 22.   


Jordox: Finn Callaghan has turned some heads this pre-season, but I don’t think this is the year he breaks out in the fantasy world. He’ll have some great games but is too awkwardly priced and I don’t think his cash generation will be consistent enough to be a good pick.

Jimmy: Dare I say it – Dom Sheed. I just can’t see the planets aligning on this one in 2023.

MiniMonk: Jai Culley has a surprising amount of ownership who is on the fringe when the Eagles are fit. Steer clear in my opinion.

Cash Cow you need to start with

Rids: Will Ashcroft. The end.

MJ: I’m going to assume at least one of my fellow panellists is going to mention a specific Lion. So I’ll take the next most impressive midfielder in Cam Mackenzie. The young hawk was exceptional last weekend. Surely an absolute lock for round one. 

Jordox: Don’t get cute, pick Will Ashcroft and enjoy the ride.

Jimmy: The simple answer here is Ashcroft, of course. But if (when) Oliver Hollands is named, I’m all in there too.

MiniMonk: Will Ashcroft is the most selected player in the game. Don’t overthink it, just pick him.

My Big Call Is…

Rids: GWS will have 3 players to average 100+ in their midfield. Cogs, Green and Kelly.

MJ: Tom Mitchell will fail to average over 100 across any format. 

Jordox: Lachie Whitfield will be the Giants’ highest scoring fantasy player in 2023, and we will all be scurrying to get him into our backlines after round 6.

Jimmy: Jaeger O’Meara averages over 100 this year at Fremantle, and Will Brodie does not.

MiniMonk: The Bulldogs will also have at least 3 players who average 100+ in their midfield, and none of them will get DPP!

#1 Most Relevant | Josh Dunkley

After a failed attempt to leave the Bulldogs a few seasons ago, Josh Dunkley got his wish and found his way to a footballing life outside the kennel. As a Lion, I believe he’s the most relevant player in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam for 2023. 

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Josh Dunkley
Age: 26
Club: Brisbane Lions
Position: Midfield/Forward

2022 Highest Score: 
139 Vs West Coast (AFLFantasy)
155 Vs Fremantle (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
189 Vs Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2019)
202 Vs Melbourne | SuperCoach (2019)

2022 Average: 
108.8 (AFLFantasy)
108.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $596,400
AFLFantasy Price: $963,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $987,400

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Josh Dunkley is one of the most enjoyable players to own in fantasy footy. The reason is he finds a way to score through every column imaginable. In reality, he is one of the most well-rounded midfielders in the game. Dunks can win the contested ball, applies high defensive pressure, is a strong tackler, gets into space to win the uncontested ball and is a super overhead mark for his size.

Even though Dunks is now on a new side and within a new structure, his scoring past can give us an insight into his potential scoring future. Last season he scored eighteen AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons. That’s four games all year that he didn’t hit triple digits. Six of those tons were 120 or higher, including five over 130. He had just two scores below 80 all year on his way to averaging 108.7. He ranked eighth for averages and sixth for points. He scored more than Lachie Neale, Clayton Oliver, and Jackson Macrae and was under 30 points away from Touk Miller, who finished fourth.

Last year we had some great in-season DPP gains in the forward line, including Luke Paker, Bailey Smith and Marcus Bontempelli. Yet Dunkley was still higher than these guys in averages and total points. He was clear and supreme the best forward for 2022.

In SuperCoach, he posted fifteen tons. Seven were above 120, five were above 130, and his top three scores were 142, 143 & 155. He had two additional scores above 90, and in just four games, his scoring dipped under 80. By the year’s closing he was ranked 15th in SuperCoach for total points and 23rd by averages.

Before injuring his shoulder in 2021, he was the hottest scoring player across all game formats. Over the season’s first six rounds, he averaged 115 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 129 in SuperCoach. If you didn’t own him, luck stopped him from running away with your season. He’s got the scoring capability within him to go back. In 2019 his scoring pedigree of Dunkley was first seen. Over his final thirteen games of that season, he scored twelve tons and, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, averaged 125.3 and 129.9 for SuperCoach.
You don’t have to pick and choose the data trends from 2021 or 2019 to showcase that Dunkley has the scoring pedigree to match it with the top options across the formats. For example, in the first seven weeks of 2022, he averaged 121 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 118 in SuperCoach. While in the last month of the season, he averaged 115 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 125 in SuperCoach.
At the end of the 2020 AFL season, Josh requested a trade to Essendon. One of the primary motivators around it was a desire to have a permanent position in the midfield. With a successful move to Brisbane two years on, he’s now got the chance to prove to the AFL world why he wanted the opportunity to become a permanent midfielder.

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MY TAKE

He was recruited for a purpose! That’s what Brisbane has done by trading for the services of Josh Dunkley. He has been targeted to add a physical and a skills combination mix that the Lions midfield needs to improve. While the team have options through the centre bounces, they are one of the smaller midfield going around. Lachie Neale is only 178cm, Jarryd Lyons is 184cm, and Hugh McCluggage is 185cm. However, Josh is 191cm. His height, strength and physical presence will make a significant impact from the first bounce.

Alongside that, Dunkley offers something unique to the midfield options. His combination of elite contested footy alongside his tackling pressure will enable both him and his midfield teammates to thrive. Last year the Lions ranked 12th in the AFL for tackles and had just one player average over five per game. Last year Josh averaged 6.1 per game and was ranked 13th in the league in this stat column.

Dunkley will receive a minimum of 65% of centre bounce attendance, and this isn’t just because of what he adds to the midfield mix. It’s also because of the Lions forward structures. Even before the offseason addition of Jack Gunston, they already had a stacked forward line. On their day, Eric Hipwood and Joe Daniher are damaging talls. Then you’ve got some devastating smalls in the live wires of Zac Bailey and Charlie Cameron. Throw in Gunston plus the rotations from Linc McCarthy, Dayne Zorko, and Cam Rayner, and now opposition coaches will have headaches for days trying to stop this team. As handy as Dunkley is when forward, there is no room for him outside of rotation management.

What’s great about Dunkley is he can skip bulk CBAs to score well anyway. For example, in round seven against Essendon last year, he attended only 23% of centre bounces but still posted a 130+ score across the formats. Two weeks later, he scored over 110 with just 24% CBAs, and a further two weeks beyond that, he scored over 135 and attended just 32% of centre bounces.

Is there a narrative for why you’d go against selecting him in your starting squad? There are a few. Firstly, you believe he’ll have a slower start to the season. The midfield mix will take time to find a rhythm, and you think Dunkley will score below 100 over these first few weeks. Additionally, you look at the Brisbane early fixture and see some tough matchups early. In round one, they play Port Adelaide, who was historically one of the harder teams to score against. Additionally, it’s a clash against his former team in round three. And based on previous comments he’s made, I suspect the Dogs players will be ready to bite.

It’s banking for many things to go your way while 53% of AFLFantasy, 65% of DreamTeam and 63% of SuperCoach are backing him. In reality, by not starting him, you are cheering for an injury or something bad to happen to him, like a suspension or a concussion. But the reality is that you will want him at some point in the season. So why not eliminate the risk and possible headache and start with him?

Whenever a player is clear and supreme, the best option in his line, I start them. He doesn’t have to increase his scoring either to do that. Even a hold is a jump down to the next best on the known forwards. I’m all for taking a risk, but opting out of Dunkley is unnecessary.

So why is Dunkley at #1 on my 50 most relevant? In essence, it’s pretty simple. I could build a narrative case that every player didn’t have to be selected. In theory, you could find someone else to replicate a comparable scoring outcome in your starting squad or upgraded plans. With Josh Dunkley, given his position, his scoring pedigree, and his ownership, I couldn’t justify or advocate a good reason not to select him.

DRAFT DECISION

Where Josh Dunkley goes on the draft day will be determined by the format you choose to draft within. What will stay the same is that he’s the first forward selected off draft boards. For AFLFantasy scoring formats, he’s right in the mix for the #1 pick overall. And personally, if I had that selection, I’d be picking him there. However, in SuperCoach, the conversation is more open for the top pick. Passing up the handful of 120+ midfielders is a challenge. But if he doesn’t go in the first handful of selections, I don’t see a world where he’s still on in the second round. 

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#2 Most Relevant | Jackson Macrae

For nearly a decade, Jackson Macrae has been a staple in our SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam sides. For many, he’s ripe for the picking again in 2023, while some look past him in favour of other options. But whatever the outcome, Macrae is set to be one of the most relevant players for fantasy AFL this season. 

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jackson Macrae
Age: 28
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score: 
148 Vs GWS Giants (AFLFantasy)
158 Vs Richmond (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
190 Vs Richmond | AFLFantasy (2018)
189 Vs Gold Coast | SuperCoach (2018)

2022 Average: 
103.4 (AFLFantasy)
115.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $634,400
AFLFantasy Price: $916,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $938,300

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

What has made Jackson Macrae so reliable over the past few years? First, he has this incredible ability to win the inside ball. Couple this with his elite endurance and workrate sees him get into space where there is seemingly none. And when he does get the ball, he punishes the opposition and helps set up his teams to push deep inside forward 50. Last year alone, he ranked by average for effective disposals, uncontested possessions and disposals. Additionally, he was top ten for clerances, stoppage clerances and inside ’50s. In short, he’s the everywhere man of the midfield.

His seasonal average of 103.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam was the twelfth best for the year in this format. It consisted of twelve tons, five of which were above 120. They included 120, 123, 124, 130 & 148. He had five extra scores between 90-99 and only failed to score over 80 in just two matches. By season end, he ranked ninth for total points.

His SuperCoach season was even stronger! Throughout the season, he scored sixteen tons, 50% above 120. Of these tons, he had five monsters over 140 and three times scored above 150. He had four additional scores between 90-99, and his lowest season score was 82. By the end of the season, his average of 115.2 was the seventh best last year, and he finished sixth for total points.

During his 2021 season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he ranked fourth for total points scored, and his average of 115.9 also ranked him fourth in the competition. His season consisted of eighteen tons, six of which were above 120; last year, his scores fell under 90 in just one game. Before the Dogs bye round is where he did most of his damage, he scored twelve consecutive tons at an average of 122.5. After the break, his scoring did slide marginally, but a 108 is more than handy. When he did ton-up last year, he showcased that he is still a weekly VC/C option. His average score when he hit triple digits in 2021 was 121.

As great as the season was in this format, it’s SuperCoach, where he continues to collect points without seemingly even trying. Last year, he scored twenty-one tons. Yes, that’s not a typo. Just once all season, he failed to hit triple digits, and in that game, he went 97! Twelve times his scores were over 130, and he ended the season ranked first in SuperCoach for total points and averages.

Since 2014, when he was able to break out to premium territory as a second-year player, Macrae has a regular towards the top of the points and averages mountain. Take a look at these averages. Blue is for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, and green signifies his SuperCoach averages.

Every coach wants a premium like Jackson Macrae in their squad. He is the personification of the perfect fantasy premium. High ceiling, consistency of scoring, almost non-existent basement, role security, captaincy option in every game and durability. Whatever the checklist you have for premium options to start on your side, Macrae has ticked them all multiple times over.

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MY TAKE

If we were picking the best premium of the past 6+ seasons, then Jackson Macrae would be a walk-up start. But despite his scoring resume, we can only use historical data to create forecasts of possible and probable outcomes.

The reason 29% of DreamTeam, 21% of AFLFantasy & 17% of SuperCoach players are on him isn’t just because of his history but also because they believe that the departure of Josh Dunkley creates some further open doors for both his scoring and role. Why? Because as Macrae’s CBAs started to see a downward trend and some fluctuation post-bye, Dunkley’s trended upwards. One thing anyone who’s played these games format a long time will know is that the worst place for Macrae is to be stuck on a wing. It’s where his fantasy scoring stalls and politely dies.

For that reason, I was thrilled to hear how he was being used at the club’s most recent match simulation. He was reported rotating between the centre bounces and the half-forward line. This is the perfect outcome for Macrae.

Sometimes we, the fantasy-loving community, don’t interpret the ‘match simulation data’ well. However, we must remember that this is an opportunity for clubs to try things they’ve explored over the pre-season. It’s why Caleb Daniel was nearly exclusively a midfielder. Try it out and see what it looks like. We know what Bont & Macrae do through there, so give him a go. Equally, Oskar Baker was very impressive on the wing, a role that, if he can hold down on his own, will be brilliant for two reasons. One, it’s another cash cow for us to consider, but two, it keeps Jackson away from the wings.

What’s the best midfield mix at the Bulldogs at centre bounces? It’s Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, Jackson Macrae and Bailey Smith. A tight four rotation supported by Adam Treloar, Caleb Daniel, Bailey Williams, Toby McLean and Oskar Baker on the outside is an excellent midfield combination. If the Bulldogs midfield rotations tighten up this year and do not widen out, it could be positive signs for a scoring increase for Macrae.

There is a slightly concerning trend over the past two seasons but only in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. So this query is less relevant than a discussion in SuperCoach. Over the previous two seasons, he’s scored 18 tons but converted just six into scores over 120. During last year from 12 tons, he posted just five over 120. Previously he was a safe 115-125 guy; now, he’s a reliable 105-115 guy. And in the eyes of some, that starts to become a reason to fade interest.

Due to this lack of ceiling in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, it’s built a lack of confidence that he can be the safety net captain he’d been between 2018-2021. It’s just one of the reasons why his ownership is considerably lower than his historical output. However, you don’t have to have him be a captaincy option each week. Let me explain.

Over the first thirteen rounds of the season, the Western Bulldogs play every match before the Sunday fixture. That makes him a perfect VC candidate. His potential for a ceiling score (or possible lack thereof) is protected. Playing the captaincy loophole, he can still be in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and still be very useful for you in the captain’s conversation, especially when paired with others who might have a heavy Sunday fixture. For example, Jack Steele and Rory Laird have five Sunday games before the byes. They could be a handy

In yesterday’s article & podcast, I posed this question, and it’s worth recapping as we look at Macrae. What is the scoring benchmark of a topline premium midfielder in 2023? Is there a clear top two or three? Is the much gap between the midfielder ranked fifth or tenth? Where is Macrae concerning this? Your answers to these questions will determine his selection or non-selection on your side.

The downside of Macrae is that he has a season comparable to that of 2022. He, by the way, was a top ten points scorer across the game formats. To me, that’s the base of what he is. The upside? He could be the #1 player in the game. So I’m selecting him everywhere. 

DRAFT DECISION

A sliding Jackson Macrae is one of the possible bargains you could land on draft day. If you wanted to own him, you’ve had to outlay a first-round selection for the past five seasons. It won’t be the case in 2023. He’s still a perfectly strong M1, but he’ll start flying off draft boards in the second and potentially even early third round. Of course, that depends on how high the top end of the forwards, defenders, and rucks go inside the top 15 picks. 

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#3 Most Relevant | Jack Steele

It’s rare you get a player with the potential of being the number one scorer in the game and not having to pay top dollar for them. But in 2023, that’s exactly what you could be getting with Jack Steele in 2023. 

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jack Steele
Age: 27
Club: St Kilda Saints
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score: 
154 Vs West Coast (AFLFantasy)
143 Vs West Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
162 Vs Carlton | AFLFantasy (2021)
167 Vs Brisbane | SuperCoach (2020)

2022 Average: 
110.4 (AFLFantasy)
109.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $604,400
AFLFantasy Price: $978,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $1,002,600

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Jack Steele’s season experienced a significant hiccup when he suffered a shoulder injury early in round nine. What was impressive is he still managed to play on after suffering the knock early in the second term. He ended the game with 22 touches, four marks and three tackles. Unfortunately, the injury required surgery, and the Saints skipper didn’t play until round fifteen. The club said he could’ve played on but decided to prioritise his long-term well-being rather than force him to shoulder on.

Despite this setback, Steele’s overall season fantasy performance was still strong. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored fourteen tons four his eighteen games. That was a ton in 77.7% of matches last year. Additionally, he delivered five scores over 120, including 121, 124, 130, 139 & 154. Alongside these tons were two additional scores of 90+, and in just two matches, did his scoring fails to get above that 90 marker.

He finished the season with an average of 110.4, leaving him ranked as the fifth-best player in the game format by averages. Only Rory Laird, Andrew Brayshaw, Callum Mills and Clayton Oliver averaged more. If you remove the match where he got injured early, his average would’ve jumped up to 112.4, and he’d be ranked equal third with Brayshaw.

For his SuperCoach year, he scored thirteen tons, eight of which were over 120. Four of them were above 130, and two were above 140. The three scores below 80 are well below his historical output. You’ve got to go back to 2019 for that many scores below this range. His average of 109.7 puts him in the top twenty in the format.

Although the overall data might not look as exciting last year as in previous seasons, we’ve got to remind ourselves how hard it is to come back from shoulder surgery. However, for a player like Jack, who wins so many fantasy points through tackles and contested possessions, it’s impressive that he was still able to average 112.4 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 111.8 in SuperCoach in the nine games post his injury return.

If you look back at his 2021 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam season, it was simply stunning. His average of 121.3 was the second-highest average of the formats. He also ended the season as the number one overall points scorer. Steele scored nineteen tons, eleven above 120 and three over 140. To go with his high ceiling was that he had just three scores below 90 all year and didn’t drop his scoring under 78. I could stop there, and we’d all acknowledge it as a strong season. But it gets better. Before the bye round, in his first thirteen matches, he was averaging 112.9. He was impressive, but he got better. Over the final nine games of the year, he averaged 133.5. Six of those scores were over 130, and nothing was under 106.

His season was just as prolific in SuperCoach. He ranked second for total points and was less than 60 points behind the overall leader. His average of 126 was ranked second in the competition, and he was one of only five players to average 120 or higher last year. His year featured nineteen scores over 100, thirteen over 120 and a monster eight that went 140+. In addition to this barrage of monster scores, his scoring didn’t fall under 91 all season long.

Like in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, his pre and post-bye splits are sensational. In the first thirteen games of the year, he was pumping out 118.5. As strong as that is, his 136.7 over the final nine weeks blows it out of the water. In summary, if you Steele in your team during 2021, you were delighted with the result. If you had him over the last few months, you were ecstatic.

Over the past few seasons, there haven’t been many players better across the formats. Beyond the shoulder injury this year, his durability, ceiling and high-scoring floor make him the perfect candidate to build your starting squad. Jack is one of a real handful of players that can deliver or destroy your season within just weeks.

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MY TAKE

Nobody is, nor should they be, questioning the fantasy pedigree of Jack Steele. Since 2020, when he broke out as an elite premium, we’ve continually seen his ability to score BIG. But that isn’t the conversation that’s happening surround him. Rather it’s twofold. First, what do St Kilda and its game style look like back under the leadership of Ross Lyon? And the second, what is the scoring benchmark of a topline premium midfielder in 2023? How you answer those will ultimately determine your destination with Steele in 2023.

Ultimately, we won’t know about the Saints and the game style until we see it play out in the practice games and preseason community series clashes. But what we do know is what his role will be. He’ll be the club’s leading midfielder and regularly lead from the front in the contest and across the ground.

In 2022 we had just one midfielder in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam average over 120. Four between 110 and 120, four between 105-110 and eight between 100-105. While in 2021, we had two midfielders with an average above 120. Eight more between 110-120, seven between 105-110 and five more between 100-105. It might only be two seasons, but the volume of 110+ midfielders is evolving. In 2021 we had 10; last year, it was just five.

For SuperCoach, we had four players in 2022 averaging above 120. It was a further three between 115-120 and seven between 110-115. In total, fourteen midfielders went above 110. In 2021, we also had four players register an average above 120. Six average between 115-120, and five more 110-115. In total, we had 15 midfielders register an average of 110+.

Based on the current trend, any midfielder who can hit 110 or higher looks safe as a top-tier premium midfielder. For Steele, his worst-case scenario is his scoring holds at his current price point. Why? Because he has various scoring avenues, he’s not locked into a game style.

One thing is evident, Steele is an end-of-season scoring specialist. The statistics have shown that over the past three seasons. Why? Predominantly it’s linked to his tackle count and contested possession rate increasing. It’s paritly due to more winter weather, which does lend itself to more contested footy. But it’s also due to teams figuring out more regularly how to slow opposition ball movement down and get the same style on their terms.

Jack Steele needs to be a captaincy/vice-captaincy option at his price point in every match if you’re selecting him in your starting squad. Thankfully, history says he’s one of the most dependable options. One of the significant factors is that he’s not dependent on one specific element to score well. So even when he faces a tagger, he still scores in different avenues other than just through pure ball-winning. Here lies the beauty of Steele. Because he scores through possessions, marks, tackles and goals, he will always be a player capable of scoring.

While he does present ‘value’ based on his price and what he delivered over the last few years, you are not picking him on those grounds primarily. You’re picking Steele because he’s a safe captain/vice-captain every week. You’re picking him because he’s one of the best fantasy premiums in the game. Don’t get stuck on the value game; sometimes, it’s just not there and doesn’t need to be in his price range.

Steele is one of the safest premium midfielders to own in 2023. At best, he’s got the potential to once again average over 120 across all formats and be one of the best in the game. At his worst, he scores at the same level he is right now: a clear top-10 midfielder across the formats. For those reasons, I will be locking him in across all formats.

DRAFT DECISION

The ultimate variable in drafts is the format you draft in. But more specifically, within each format this year, the biggest variance will be how early people chase after the F1 spot on their side. Some believe the big four are worth first-round selections, while others do not. However, most coaches across formats will agree that Jack Steele has the proven potential to be a top-five midfielder and even the capacity to be the top-scoring player in the game. As a by-product, I expect him to be heading off draft boards regularly inside the top 15-20 selections.

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#4 Most Relevant | Clayton Oliver

For the past six seasons, we’ve enjoyed the premium performances from Clayton Oliver in AFLFantasy, SuperCoach & DreamTeam. At 25, he’s still yet to hit his football prime. All the signs point to yet another season of dominance from Clarry. 

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Clayton Oliver
Age: 25
Club: Melbourne Demons
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score: 
151 Vs North Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
178 Vs North Melbourne (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
161 Vs Gold Coast | AFLFantasy (2019)
205 Vs Adelaide | SuperCoach (2020)

2022 Average: 
112.5 (AFLFantasy)
127.1 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $699,800
AFLFantasy Price: $994,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $1,021,500

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

There are certain things you can bank on every year. For example, an AFL coach is getting sacked mid-year. Someone in the media circles mentions the Crows infamous camp. Toby Greene is getting suspended, and Clayton Oliver is dominating the football landscape for another season.

He did it again in 2022, finishing first by average in the league for clearances, contested possessions & stoppage clerances. He was also top ten for disposals, handbells, centre clearances, effective disposals, and inside 50s.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored a ton in 81% of matches last year. That’s seventeen triple-digit games, with seven ticking over the 120 markers. It included 136, 139, 146 & 151. Alongside this, he had two additional scores over 90, and just once all year did his scoring drop below 80 (68.) His average of 112.5 was the second highest in the format, with only Rory Laird going higher, and he finished seventh for total points. He was only 110 points from coming first. Had he played every game and scored an average, you’d be talking about Oliver holding the #1 points mantle.

For Superoach, he posted a seasonal average of 127 which consisted of seventeen tons. Of those tons, twelve were over 120, nine were above 130, seven were 140 0r higher, and his three highest scores of the year were 168, 176 & 178. Of the four games for the year, he didn’t get to ton up; two were over 90, one was an 85 & his seasonal low was a 68 against Port Adelaide in round four. He’s currently ranked second for averages behind Rory Laird and just 33 points off Lachie Neale with the most SuperCoach points. That is not bad for a player who had one less match.

In 2021 Clarry was yet again one of the best premium midfielders in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he was ranked eleventh for total points, and his average of 108.3 has him ranked fifteenth in the format. This season consisted of fifteen scores of 100+, eight of which were over 120, further dismissing the myth that he’s only SuperCoach relevant. When he did hit the ton, his average score was 119. And he had one monster against the Crows, a 155. To go with this high frequency of tons is a low-scoring deviation. He had five games all season where he didn’t score over 90 and just one score below 80.


His season was even stronger in SuperCoach; from the twenty-two games, he scored seventeen tons, eleven of which were over 120, while a monster five were 140+, including scoring his second score over 200 in twelve months, both against the Adelaide Crows. His average of 123.4 was the fourth highest in the game.
Over the past sixty games (three seasons) of AFL, he’s been simply amazing. He’s regularly been inside the top dozen players through his points and averages. However, during this stretch of games, he’s gone at an insane average of 124.3 in SuperCoach and 111.7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.

Alongside this incredible scoring run is a near-perfect durability record. Since 2017 he’s missed just one match, that was last year after suffering a fractured thumb. Beyond that isolated incident, he’s got one of the best durability records in the game over the past six seasons. When you put his durability alongside his scoring ceiling and consistency, he becomes very difficult to overlook in your team for 2023. 

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MY TAKE

What’s changed at Melbourne that will cause a change in him? When Brayshaw moved in as a CBA midfielder, he didn’t drift scores drastically. The addition of Grundy should only make their CBA mix stronger, not weaker. The issue for Melbourne last year wasn’t the midfield but a lack of cohesion in the FWD line.

Across all game formats, I have Clayton Oliver locked in as a top 5-10 midfielder. The concern about him has always been his ability to handle a tag. But Oliver is no longer the primary tag target in the Demons midfield. Instead, it’s shutting down Christian Petracca that should be the greater priority; he will more often be the difference-maker in a game, not Oliver.

That’s no shade on Clayton; he’d be the top tagging option in most other AFL teams. Instead, this highlights just how destructive CP5 can be. It certainly doesn’t mean Oliver will never get a tag; each opposing team may have different views from the next. However, to me, it’s pretty evident. With Clayton, it’s his ball-winning ability over a game that will become death by a thousand cuts. But with Petracca, he needs five minutes, and the game is over.

The primary narrative for why Clayton won’t be in someone people’s starting squad is due to the fact. The belief is he can be obtained cheaper after the opening few months. His first three opponents for 2023 are Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions & Sydney. In his past three against them for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam is 103 (Dogs), 98 (Lions) & 101 (Swans.) While in SuperCoach, it’s 115.6 (Dogs), 117.3 (Lions) & 129.6 (Swans.) Do with that data trend what you wish. But in the next three matches, he plays West Coast, Essendon & Richmond. So whatever ‘dip’ you are hoping for might not eventuate.

One of the keys to success in this game is making the right trade moves and getting in players who present value. But that isn’t the sum of success. Of course, you want the best prospects on your side for as long as possible, and Oliver is certainly one of the best midfielder premiums over the past few years.

Oliver needs to be right in contention to start across formats – and if you’re not starting, history says you’ll probably miss on him. The reason is that he has elite scoring consistency, so he’ll rarely drop off much. So when you decide to look for an avenue to bring him in, you’re always paying ‘up’ to get him. Rarely is that an approach that I advocate for. Buy low, sell high is the cornerstone principle of salary cap games.

DRAFT DECISION

Clayton Oliver is the perfect M1 on your draft side, regardless of the format you play. Having missed just one game in six seasons, that availability is critical. I could see him going in the first round in SuperCoach-style leagues. However, I commonly see him as a second-round selection in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam scoring leagues. But that’s more due to the desire to secure an F1 candidate than any shade on Clayton. 

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#6 Most Relevant | Tim Taranto

The arrival of Tim Taranto has two significant impacts. One is for Richmond’s chances of delivering another premiership in this era. The second is for the fantasy football community, as we could have one of the best scoring options available as a forward. 

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tim Taranto
Age: 25
Club: Richmond Tigers
Position: Midfield/Forward

2022 Highest Score: 
128 Vs Sydney (AFLFantasy)
121 Vs Fremantle (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
156 Vs North Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2019)
144 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2019)

2022 Average: 
95.5 (AFLFantasy)
91.4(SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $503,100
AFLFantasy Price: $846,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $867,000

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

The trading for Tim Taranto is excellent news if you’re a Richmond fan. Not just because he’s a high-calibre player but because it means the club should buck the trend of embracing a full rebuild after a successful premiership era. Taranto’s arrival is significant because it stalls any talk of rebuilding. Still, it also adds some significant strength that all too often depended on Dion Prestia’s health. Last year, Jayden Short and Shai Bolton were the club’s third and fourth most-used players at centre bounces. Now Tim, alongside the addition of Jacob Hopper, adds a significant change of personnel and squad depth through the midfield.

This isn’t just great news for Tiger fans but the fantasy AFL community. Over multiple seasons at the Giants, the scoring pedigree of Tim Taranto has been on full display. But only when he’s been allowed to play heavily as a centre-bounce midfielder has he shown over numerous years he can score.

He first emerged as a genuine premium when as a MID/FWD in his second season, he averaged 90 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 88 in SuperCoach. The following season in 2019, he emerged as a genuine premium when her averaged 112.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102 in SuperCoach.

During this 2019 season, he scored fifteen AFLFantasy tons, seven of which over 130 highlighted his ability to deliver a scoring ceiling. That same season in SuperCoach, he registered a ton in thirteen matches. His 2021 saw him in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam average of 107.7. He scored fourteen tons, seven of them were above 120, and in an additional five games, he scored 90 or above. That’s him scoring 90+ in 86% of matches. By the year’s closing, he’s ranked 15th for total points. For SuperCoach, his year returned twelve tons, three of them over 120 and an additional four scores over 90. Positively, one of his most significant scores came when he played a 100% forward role and scored a 130+ against the Tigers.

We haven’t even spoken about his 2022 year. From his sixteen games, he scored seven tons in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, four of those were over 120. He had three additional scores over 90 and four scores under 80. He averaged 95.5 and is currently ranked third amongst all eligible forwards.

While in SuperCoach, he posted six tons, with the highest being 121 against Fremantle. He had two additional scores between 90-99, and his scoring dipped under 80 on five occasions. His average of 91.3 places him as the ninth-best forward by average.

Here’s the crazy thing, he only attended over 50% of centre bounces in eight of his sixteen games last year and never attended more than 59%. There was also no correlation between those games where he attended 50% or higher CBAs related to a stronger score. Tim had three games where he averaged under 40% CBAs but still scored tons across the formats.

It’s quite simple if Taranto is allowed to be a centre-bounce midfielder, he should be on our radars. However, he still presents some value in the Richmond, largely fantasy football purgatory system. Why? Because Tim is a strongly-rounded midfielder. Not only is he a high-volume accumulator, but he’s also a powerful tackler and a damaging forward of the ball in front of goals. His disposal efficiency is an area where he can be criticised, but in the Tigers system, where a ‘surge’ mentality of moving the ball forward is the focus, he should only succeed.

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MY TAKE

Richmond wasn’t great last year. The aura they once had of being impossible to defeat started to fade. Why? Because the players, the roles and the game style that had served them so well for the previous few seasons were now starting to get picked apart and exposed by opposition teams. It’s why the Tigers identified, prioritised and paid a heavy price in contracts and draft capital to secure Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto.

The club has identified and now secured centre bounce specialists and clearance bulls who will aid the midfield immediately. Without hesitation, Taranto will be played as primarily a centre-bounce midfielder. His addition allows them to play the likes of Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton as impact midfielders, but predominantly in the forward half, where their possession impact can be at its most.

One of the things I often preach through the fifty most relevant is narrative consistency. For example, some preach that Tom Mitchell at Collingwood is a certainty to go 110+ because he’s got a proven scoring history and now a defined midfield role. But that same crowd say Tim Taranto cannot score well despite a comparable situation. I don’t see how you can take the same narrative in two potentially comparable situations and come up with opposite outcomes unless you allow confirmation bias to filter into your statistical narrative. Stay consistent with your processing. If Taranto is volatile, so is Mitchell.

Ownership can and does play a factor. Once a player hits a certain threshold, the risk is no longer on those owning but those going against a popular premium. Normally I have the threshold at about 50% format ownership. When premiums have that percentage level, there’s only pain and very little to gain by going against the crowd that sharply. At the time of writing, Taranto’s current ownership is 49% in SuperCoach, 57% DreamYeam and 49% AFLFantasy. To me, he’s hit that tipping point and going against him presents a significant risk.

What’s the upside with Tim? I believe in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam; he’s got between 10-20 proven points per game of upside. In SuperCoach, he’s got the upside of 10 proven points per game. He is one of only three forwards capable of matching Josh Dunkley’s scoring. What’s the downside? He holds his current scoring range and stays top 5-10 forward. Yet again, the upside outweighs any downside to me.

Over the past few years, we have seen Taranto suffer multiple injury concerns. In just 2022 alone, he struggled to overcome a back complaint while also suffering a concussion. Additionally, in his six seasons of AFL, he’s had only two where he’s played a full season and just three seasons where he’s played 20+ matches. And while injury history is a concern, he’s currently having an uninterrupted preseason, and ultimately, that’s all we can ask from him.

Remember what we always preach about any player’s injury history. If anything, such concerns are why to consider him in your starting squad and not as an upgrade target. If you start with them, you can bank all the scores they deliver. And with every passing game, the likelihood of injury will only increase. However, suppose you trade into an injury ‘risk’. In that case, you run the gauntlet of not just missing his good scores that attracted you to make them an upgrade, but rather your likelihood of trading into that injury is higher with every game past. Starting these ‘injury-prone’ players is the best way to offset the risk. If an injury does occur, you have banked every good score available but also spent just one trade, not multiple, on removing him from your side.

If you can’t tell, I’m bullish on Tim this year, and barring an injury, he’ll be in my starting squad across all formats.

DRAFT DECISION

The first forward off the draft boards will be Josh Dunkley. Across the formats, he’s my consensus #1 overall pick. But where Tim Taranto goes will depend on two variables, the format you play and if you have captains ‘on.’

In AFLFantasy, he’s a natural first-round selection but will go later in the opening round if captains are on, as people will elect to go for a ‘safer’ midfield guy. For SuperCoach, I have him heading off draft boards early in the second round.

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#7 Most Relevant | Will Ashcroft

Will Ashcroft is the #1 most selected player across SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam. Is it a warranted selection?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Will Ashcroft
Age: 18
Club: Brisbane Lions
Position: Midfield

SuperCoach Price: $202,800
AFLFantasy Price: $298,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $295,400

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Will Ashcroft is one of the most well-rounded midfielders to come out of the junior system. He’s strong in the contest, quick, powerful and clean with the ball. He regularly makes the right decision both in and out of congestion. And when he doesn’t have the football, he’s getting into dangerous spaces to prevent the opposition or applying elite defensive pressure with tackles. Over the past few seasons, we’ve seen some special players come into the AFL from the juniors, and Will looks just as good as any of them.

The Brisbane Lions have been given an absolute gift via the father/son AFL rules, and even though it cost them plenty of draft pick capital, there won’t be one Lions staff, player or supporter that’ll be disappointed in what they gave up to land him.

In the NAB league, for Sandringham Dragons, he averaged 34.5 disposals, five tackles and 3.3 marks for the season. While in the under-18 championships for Vic Metro, he averaged 33 disposals, nine clearances, and five tackles and snagged himself the Larke Medal, awarded to the best player throughout the Under-18 National Championships. He’s even had a chance to play three VFL games for the Brisbane Lions; playing against men, he averaged 29 disposals and was even seen amongst some recruiters as the best player in these games.

At every level, he’s played from local footy to nab league, to under-18 championships and even the VFL. He’s shown that he’s a class above the rest & stacks up the stats line full no matter the occasion or the opposition.

As a junior, Will received plenty of contrasts to being like Sam Walsh and Nick Daicos. Both players were elite juniors but could translate them onto the elite stage in their first season. Sam’s debut season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he finished the season averaging 93, scored seven tons, nine additional extra scores over 80 & only dipped his scoring under 70 in just two matches. His SuperCoach performances were equally as impressive as he ended the year averaging 87. It consisted of six tons, eight additional scores above 80 & just three times scored less than 70.

For Nick, in his debut season for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored seven tons, three of them over 115, including his career-high 147 against the Crows. To go with those tons was five additional 80+. His SuperCoach season was even stronger. He scored six tons, four above 120, including 143 & 163. On top of these, he had six more scores over 80.

The reason for highlighting Daicos & Walsh and their debut seasons is they both became someone that at either M8 or D6, should you get stuck during the season, you could’ve held them in those spots for the entirety of the season. While it’s not an ‘ideal’ scenario heading into the season, it turned out to be OK if you got stuck with bad luck and had to do it. Can we see Ashcroft match those scores? It’s certainly potential, but it’s the unspoken expectation in the community that we’ll have another stunning high-end cash cow.

Simply put, Ashcroft is as good as any midfielder we’ve had come to the junior ranks. And while no player is ever a guaranteed superstar, Will is as close to being that as you can get.

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MY TAKE

There are only two reasons you don’t have Will Ashcroft in your starting squad entering round one. Firstly, an injury during the preseason prevents him from playing in the year’s opening match. Beyond that, I cannot forecast how he doesn’t debut in week one of the season. Nevertheless, the club have been ultra-impressed with him. Cameron Bruce, the Lions midfield coach, was recently asked about Will after a dominant match simulation. He said, ‘he’s clean, and his work around congestion and composure at such a young age is impressive.’ So let’s call it now; unless injured or suspended, he’s playing round one.

It’s why he’s currently the most-owned player across the formats. He’s currently in 68% SuperCoach, 62% AFLFantasy & 65% of DreamTeam sides. So not only is he highly owned, but for many, he’s the first picked.

Do you believe in ‘paying up for job security’? Without playing, our cash cows become null and void. I understand that perspective. However, a player’s increased prices don’t guarantee their games. Instead, it must be based on the unique variables of why they are getting games. Cash cows’ job is primarily to make us as much money as possible quickly as possible.

While the higher ceiling scores are preferable, the more expensive a cash cow is, the higher they need to score to generate the same amount of money. Ashcroft must outscore others by approximately 15 points per game to those at the base price to make the same amount. The only reason I’d support any advocacy for not starting Will would be if we had a plethora of cash cows at the basement price, which all had the same scoring output and job security. However, I don’t believe that exists in 2023.

Will should get a solid split of midfield minutes this year. I’d be shocked if it was anything under 35% as a centre-bounce midfielder. As loaded as the Lions are with midfield stocks, I believe we’ll see a shift from last year’s dynamic. I believe that Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley will be the regulars and attend north of 70% of CBAs. Then WIll Ashcroft, Dayne Zorko, Jarred Berry, Hugh McCluggage, Cam Rayner, Zac Bailey, and possibly even Jarryd Lyons will make up the supporting cast. When not part of the midfield rotation, he’ll likely make his home across the flanks. So while a DPP gain isn’t out of the question, it’s not something to bank on.

The other day I was doing a podcast collaboration with the legends at Jock Reynolds. You can listen to the episode here. I bring it up because we had a question from a listener about chasing a unique cash cow and paying up for it. But looking for a separator or a ‘point of difference’ isn’t what you should be looking for in your cash cows. It would help if you were looking for players with the best potential to generate cash to enable you to upgrade your side. So don’t get cute trying to avoid Ashcroft; I genuinely cannot see a narrative that holds sufficient water for me to see why you’d want not to select Will.

Don’t overcomplicate the game; keep it simple. For example, if Ashcroft is selected in round one, pick him.

DRAFT DECISION

Rarely in single-season drafts do first-year players end up getting selected. However, given the constant parallels and comparisons, Will Ashcroft has had to Nick Daicos, I can see coaches jumping up earlier than they should for Ashcroft in the hope that he might deliver at the same levels as Nick. Across formats, he went around pick 140-150 as his average draft position in rookie season. If you are desperate to own him, you’ll probably pick him in the range of an M5. As much as I love Will, I couldn’t pick him there over a Jacob Hopper type who’ll be available at a close range.

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#9 Most Relevant | Touk Miller

Over the past two seasons, Touk Miller has been among the top points-scoring players across AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & SuperCoach. Does he continue on this stretch of scoring where he’s among the best options available? Or does the next generation of Suns start to impact his ceiling? 

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Touk Miller
Age: 26
Club: Gold Coast Suns
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score: 
147 Vs Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
167 Vs North Melbourne (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
160 Vs Hawthorn | AFLFantasy (2021)
167 Vs North Melbourne | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average: 
109.8 (AFLFantasy)
120.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $662,400
AFLFantasy Price: $972,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $996,900

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For the past three seasons, Touk Miller has been a premium midfielder. Over the past two, he’s won the club best & fairest and been among the top handful of averaging midfielders in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam.

It was another strong season across the majority of all stats lines. He ranked second in the league for clearances and stoppage clearances per game. Fourth for contested possessions and top ten for inside 50s and centre clearances.

2022 was a season where for some coaches in the community, Touk created an element of frustration. Not because he was bad, but because there was an element of regression in his 2021 season scoring and averages. Despite this, he ended the 2022 season as the fourth-highest scorer for points in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and third for SuperCoach. So any ‘frustration’ towards him is very much overblown.

Last year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 109.8, which consisted of fifteen tons and nine scores over 120. They include 132, 133, 134, 140 & 147. Alongside this are three additional scores of 90+, and only once last season did he drop his scoring below 80. As a result, he ended the season with the seventh-best average in the entire format. And speaking of ending the season over the final ten games, he went at an average of 112.

For SuperCoach, he scored eighteen tons across the season. Eleven of those were above 120, and nine were above 130. His five highest scores were 153, 153, 157, 160 & 167. He had two additional scores over 90, and his scoring fell below 98 in just two matches. He ended the year with a ten-game average of 123.6 and has the fourth-highest average.

In 2021, the potential of Touk was fulfilled. He ranked first by average in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and third for total points. Good for a guy that missed a match. He scored seventeen tons; thirteen were above 120, while a monster six were over 140. His season in SuperCoach was arguably even better. He scored eighteen tons from his twenty-one matches; an insane thirteen were above 120, ten over 130 and seven scores of 140+. He was one of the most dependable VC/C options in 2021. He had sixteen consecutive tons to end the year and was ranked sixth for total points. Only Jack Macrae and Jack Steele had higher averages than Touk in 2021.

For two consecutive seasons, Miller has given us dependable captaincy output. But it’s not just his frequency of big tons and his strong basement. In addition, he’s been highly durable. He played every game last year and has missed just one match across the previous three seasons.

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MY TAKE

When these two worlds collide, you know it’s a good thing. Finally, a footballer you love to watch combines with high AFLFantasy, SuperCoach & Dreamteam pedigree. That’s exactly what Touk Miller is to me. He’s fun to watch because, almost without fail, he does the right thing for his team.

Miller has a superpower. No, it’s not his tackling, disposal efficiency, or goal-kicking. He can do those things, but his superpower is the key to unlocking his fantasy scoring and breaking tags should they come. Workrate. Through sheer gut running, endurance and fitness, Touk gets from contest to contest to contest. And whether he wins the ball through a clearance, gets into open space for an uncontested touch, or applies pressure through a tackle, he gets himself to every contest. Last year he spent 87% time on the ground, and given he’s right in his prime, don’t expect that number to slide away anytime soon.

One thing I’m interested to see over the preseason is to see how the Suns will structure up through the midfield. Last year they ran a super tight centre bounce crew. Alongside Touk (81%) were Jarrod Witts (85%), Noah Anderson (71%), Matt Rowell (80%) and David Swallow (31%). After this unit, the next most regular at CBAs was Alex Davies, who averaged 23% over the year. Does this mix hold? Will Sam Flanders or Elijah Hollands get some opportunities? Or will we see cash cow Bailey Humphries roll through? Either way, Touk’s role won’t change, but should the other Suns start elevating themselves, we might see a small dip in his ceiling output.

We’ve got two significant fixture changes for 2023. The first is an additional round; the year is now made up of 24. The other is that the bye rounds are split over four, not three weeks. What’s significant about this is that DreamTeam and SuperCoach have decided to treat all four weeks of byes as the best’ 18’ scorers, and round thirteen has just the Gold Coast Suns and Geelong Cats with the week off. 

Finding 18 players to field in round 13 will be simple. The others can be challenging. Being able to bank a premium midfielder like Miller could become extremely valuable. He becomes the constant theme in your backline during the other three bye rounds as you make upgrades and team benchings. And it’s not just selecting a bye runner; it’s using the byes as potentially a deal breaker if you can’t split the difference between Miller and another premium. Remember, he’s not just any premium midfielder; he’s a captaincy candidate. As a matter of reference, Gold Coast plays Adelaide, Carlton and Hawthorn during those three weeks.

The question isn’t will you own Touk Miller? But rather when! For the 30% of DreamTeam, 23% of AFLFantasy & 36% of coaches currently owning him, they’re hoping he starts the season the way he ended 2022. However, those targeting as an upgrade will pray for a few early tags to come his way.

DRAFT DECISION

Touk Miller will head off draft boards as one of the first midfielders selected. However, where goes will largely depend on how people view the top forward premiums. I suspect he’ll go inside the later first round and into the early second across most drafts. 

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