Tag: Will Setterfield

Trade Priorities | Round 8

We’re a third of the way through the season; it’s time to discuss the trade priorities as we head into another round of football.

Embed from Getty Images

Done the job?

One of the better midprice players this season has been new Essendon recruit Will Setterfield. The former Carlton & GWS Giants midfielder has thrived with the opportunity and continuity provided to him at Essendon. Over the first few rounds of the year, he was putting up premium scores and was understandably someone that people traded into. However, off the back of a score in the 50’s last weekend, the question of the format needs to be asked, is it time to trade him?

You can hold him, but it’ll likely come with some immediate cash drop probability. We saw a slide in his price last week. Barring a return to the 120+ scores, he’ll fall again. He’s got a breakeven of 126 in AFLFantasy + DreamTeam and 117 in SuperCoach. He’s shown history this year that he’s got the capability of scoring this and more. But on the recent trend, the probability of having him kickstart his cash generation again. Therefore, the options are either tap out now while he’s arguably at his pricing peak or hold onto him until the round fourteen bye.

There are still plenty of other midprice options that can continue to stick around in our teams. James Worpel, Finn Callagahan and Darcy Macpherson still have some cash to make. So there’s no need to consider moving any of these players on.

Embed from Getty Images

Ripe for the picking

At the start of the season, most coaches would say that their ideal completed team would include Jack Steele and Jack Sinclair. For various reasons, both have yet to be at their previous peak. But after last weekend, they reminded coaches of all formats of their potential. The benefit of some early season challenges means we can pick up both at some value based on proven performances. They might not be bargains, but they are under compared to what you could have paid for entering the season.

I’ve been a big fan of Andrew Brayshaw, but his start to the season has been underwhelming. Thankfully, there’s a legitimate reason for it. He’s come out and shared that he’d been battling a knee issue during the preseason and early in the year. Thankfully, he’s now pain-free & believes he’s turned the corner. Last year he averaged over 110 across the formats, and if you believe his injury was the primary reason for a lower-scoring start to the season, then he’s a genuine option to be a buy low.

On the latest strategy roundtable, we discussed Jayden Short. If he had DEF status now, he’d be more highly discussed. But while he is only a MID, only he’s getting slept on. In the past two weeks, he’s scored 117 & 123 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam plus 130 & 94 in SuperCoach. Barring a disaster, he’s certain to get DEF status heading into round 12, but even if he doesn’t, he’s got a plumb fixture and role that makes him a strong option now that, at worst, is moved off at his bye round. At best, he could match it with the scoring of Jordan Dawson, Tom Stewart, Nick Daicos, James Sicily and Jack Sinclair.

It’s an AFLFantasy play with high risk but has a huge potential reward. Does Aaron Hall have the potential to average 120+ from now until his round 15 byes? The answer should be yes! Equally, if I asked you who has the historical narrative of going down injured in the first five minutes of a game and cost you, he’d also make a list. Considering him as an option isn’t for a team with a strong rank position; rather, it’s a team looking to make up some ground and go unique. He’s got the capacity to be the #1 scorer in the game. Additionally, he’s about $50,000 more expensive than Will Day but has potential 30+ points on him every week. It’s not for everyone, but he’s ripe for the picking for the right coach.

Don’t lose focus

Have you ever heard the saying of short-term pain for long-term gain? Essentially, it’s absorbing the pain of now so that the long-term benefit is greater. It’s so easy to sacrifice our future for the immediate hit of an upgrade-heavy cadence that’s not thought out. Yes, we need to be aggressive, and yes, we need to maximise opportunities at present, but not be careless. Successful coaches across the formats do it by trading with a short, medium and long-term planning view.

Don’t make trades this week in the hope you’ll be able to do moves the following week. Each trade you make should support the next. The moves you make should also create a pathway for the following weeks. Know what you’re doing, the what, then when, the how and the why.

Making an upgrade and doing many quickly is one of the greater sensations for fantasy footy, but doing them carelessly, without planning or narrative, could end up being the thing that stalls the longer-term growth of your team.

For example. Two weeks ago, many thought Kade Chandler was a trade-out consideration. They did this by looking at the price point and breakeven and decided to move him on. Yes, they got a premium ‘early’, but they still need to hold onto a guy with proven 100-scoring potential, a remarkable fixture and the perfect parachute plan with where his bye-round sits. He should never have been a consideration to trade, but rather be the perfect runner to the bye. It’s not a hindsight commentary; it was evident then (and articulated by us on a podcast), but nobody should’ve considered moving him on then. However, in people’s eagerness to upgrade, they took immediate gratification and lost sight of the long-term best interests of their team.

The rank isn’t real

You might be looking at your ranking and not be thrilled with what you see. But the reality of where you’re placed (for better or worse) could be the net result of only 5-10 variables and decisions over the past seven weeks.

If you play AFLFantasy, heading into round one, plenty of coaches were tossing up one defensive spot between either Nick Daicos or Hayden Young. There was less than $10,000 between them, and yet now there are 232 points and over $150k the difference. For SuperCoach, some opted to start Sean Darcy instead of Tim English because they thought the $20k price gap would be negligible. However, after eight weeks, both have been good picks, averaging over 110. However, English averages 20 points more per game and outscored him by over 135 points.

It can also come through your captaincy selections. Last week alone, there was over a 55-point differential between placing the captaincy on either Rowan Marshall or Nick Daicos. Getting on the right side of this call weekly can accumulate a significant difference. Think back to round one; Kade Chandler scores a 104 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 93 in SuperCoach. If you had him, let alone on the field, it significantly changed the outcome of your scores and possible cash generation.

And lastly, there is the element of luck. Or should I say bad luck? Two weeks ago, trading into Touk Miller was a strong play. But unfortunately, he got injured, forcing coaches to make an additional trade and find themselves not just with a poor score but a forced change to their upgrade cadence.

The point is your ranked where you are only off the back of a few decisions. Good coaches with good strategies, cash generation and clear thinking will excel over the coming weeks as we head into the multi-bye rounds. It will only be after the byes that we’ll get a true picture of where coaches are ranked and how well they’ve played the game.

Have you got a bad rank? Be encouraged; you might be closer to a good outcome post byes. Flying and ranked high? That’s excellent, but don’t get smug; you’ve got a pack of good coaches behind you planning and creating an all-mighty push.

UltimateFooty | Free Agency Pick Ups | Round 11

This week there are four former top 10 picks in the list, including an unlikely veteran down at the Cattery and a young Blue who finished 2020 like a steam train, will he do the same this year?

Embed from Getty Images

BACKS

Lachie Henderson – Geelong
% owned – 51%
2021 average – 72.4

Lachie Henderson is not someone I was expecting to be writing about this season but here we are. After being taken with pick 8 way back in 2007, Henderson is now in his 14th season and playing at his third club. He has never averaged over 70 in a season and has therefore never found himself on any fantasy watchlists.

Despite this, Henderson’s current form can no longer be ignored as he is averaging career high numbers for marks this season taking an average of 7.5 marks a game. It’s a risky pick but with a 5 round average of 84, and playing in a back six that likes to possess the footy, you could do a lot worse.

Sam Taylor – GWS
% owned – 32%
2021 average – 63.4

I have held off writing about this young defender as I wasn’t sure his scoring levels could be maintained, but after a career first fantasy ton on the weekend, it’s time have a look at Taylor.
After playing off in a grand final in his second season, Taylor endured a horrible 2020 and missed most of the season due to health issues that he has thankfully recovered from.

After a terrible couple of scores to start the season, Taylor has put together a solid fantasy season using his excellent reading of the ball to intercept many inside 50’s from the opposition.
His stat line on the weekend read 21 disposals, 9 marks, and 4 tackles scoring 100 but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as he has been building steadily.

Become a Patron! Embed from Getty Images

Midfield

Will Setterfield – Carlton
% owned – 50%
2021 average – 59.4

After an excellent 2020 campaign, Setterfield has found himself on the outer this season after some average form early that saw him dropped back to the VFL. He has been back in the senior squad for the last two weeks and has looked ok, averaging 20 touches and 6 marks but what appeals most about the former number 5 draft pick, is how he finished last year.

Before the bye, Setterfield was averaging 56.5 (scaled up to 70.6 to account for shorter quarters) but caught fire in the second half of the season averaging 80.4 (100.5) in a 7 game stretch before missing the final game of the year. If he can do similar this season, he would be an astute acquisition for your midfield.

Become a Patron! Embed from Getty Images

Forward

Tarryn Thomas – North Melbourne
% owned – 55%
2021 average – 68.5

Another pick 8, this one in the 2018 National Draft, Thomas is having a strong third season at the level, and is giving fans of the lowly Kangaroos hope for the future. After missing a large chunk of 2020 due to injury, Thomas has played every game so far this season averaging 15 touches, nearly 4 marks and contributing just over a goal a game. He cracked 20+ possessions on the weekend for the first time and is going to be given plenty of opportunities to improve further.

Will Hoskin-Elliott – Collingwood
% owned – 67%
2021 average – 69.9

A perennial free agent in drafts, and another former top 10 draft pick (pick 4 in 2011), Hoskin-Elliot hasn’t been relevant in fantasy circles since his first year at Collingwood in 2017 when he started the season on fire (averaging 104 in first 3 rounds).

Hoskin-Elliott has hit some good scores since returning from a stint in the VFL in round 5 averaging 83, including a 113 against Sydney thanks to 23 touches and 10 marks. That Sydney game saw him play more of a wing role which suits the fantasy game much better and if the former Giant can stay on a wing, he will be a solid scorer in the second half of the season.

Every AFL clubs best UltimateFooty sliders

Success in your draft league isn’t normally found in the opening handful of rounds. Rather it’s where coaches discover diamonds in the rough towards the end of the draft. As draft day approaches for coaches, I decided to share who I think are every AFL clubs best UltimateFooty sliders

FYI: The average draft position (ADP)’s are taken from our friends, The Draft Doctors, and their current UltimateFooty mock draft simulator.

Lachlan Sholl | ADP 224

One of the biggest positive things that came from the 2020 season for Adelaide was Lachie Sholl’s emergence. He offers two key quality traits that the Adelaide midfield has been crying out for. That being outside speed and classy ball use by foot.

His round 17 performance against Carlton last season was a nice sampler of his potential. He had 24 possessions, 2 goals and scored an 89 ( 111 adjusted) in UltimateFooty.

In the preseason, he has won the Crows time trial and the coaching staff has been desperate to get him playing across the wing. As a defensive eligible option, hoping for an average of 75+ isn’t out of the equation.

Joe Daniher | ADP 204

It’s a theme that you’ll see across these sliders. Forwards suck, so I’m seeing if can we get some late potential value rather than burning an early pick. Joe Daniher has had a faultless preseason and is seemingly finally getting the best out of his body. His 2017 season averaging 84.7 is a long time ago now, but it does highlight his scoring potential.

Normally picks beyond 200 are just purely speculative picks with an upside that often end up back in the player pool. So given his proven performance, it’s well worth a late pick.

I wrote about Joe Daniher earlier in the preseason. Read his article from the 50 Most Relevant here.

Will Setterfield | ADP 182

How a player ends a season can be a great indicator of how the coming season will track. And for those who draft Will Setterfield this season, they’ll be hoping that this is true. Last year his season average of 67 (83 adjusted) was fine, but it’s his final 7 games that would have coaches interested.

Between round 11 til seasons end he scored 77 (96), 70 (87), 92 (115), 91(113), 54 (67), 86 (107) and 93 (116). That’s a seven game average of 80 (100 adjusted.) You’ll take scoring like that in the middle of the draft, let alone this late.

Isaac Quaynor | ADP 179

Despite only playing 11 games of AFL footy, Isaac Quaynor has started to show promising signs. Both as a rebounding defender and as a fantasy footballer.

In round 14 against Carlton, he had 20 possessions, 5 marks, 5 tackles, and 84 (105 adjusted) in UltimateFooty. A fortnight later, against the Suns, delivered a 76 (95 adjusted).

It’s a small sample size, but the upside is there. Plus, Collingwood have always been a highly relevant and high scoring fantasy side.

Dyson Heppell | ADP 195

Don’t expect a return to the 100+ averages from Dyson Heppell. 2018 was the last time he delivered numbers that high, and while it’s not that long ago, alot has happened in those 2 seasons. Both on the injury front, and the players added to the Bombers midfield unit

Rather, the big potential value in Dyson is around an impending DPP allocation. In the offseason, Heppell has been training with the defenders, and the club wants the ball in his hands rebounding out of the defensive 50. If he picks up this allocation, he moves from being just ‘bench cover’ as a 75-85 midfielder to being an on-field D3/D4.

I wrote about Dyson Heppell earlier in the preseason. Read his article from the 50 Most Relevant here.

Hayden Young | ADP 242

5 games of AFL is a super small sample size, but in round 4 & 5 last year, Hayden Young owners would’ve spotted something special. His booming left boot returned scored 77 (96 adjusted) and 58 (72).

The dockers loved getting the ball in his hands and allowing him to set up the play with pinpoint precision. I think he’ll take another step towards fulfilling his fantasy potential, which will ultimately culminate in him being a long term premium for us in time.

Shaun Higgins | ADP 145

If your draft league has positional changes on, then Shaun Higgins is a must consider. His move to Geelong has him earmarked for the forward role previously held down by Gary Ablett.

At best, he gains a MID/FWD DPP and averages in the ’80s, making him a strong F2. At worst, he maintains a heavy midfield role, and he averages 90+. You really can’t lose.

Noah Anderson | ADP 197

It’s a rare talent that can bust out of the second year Blues. But it wouldn’t shock me at all to see Noah Anderson join the club and do it. In his final 4 games of the year, he averaged 71.5 (89 adjusted). Noah possesses both a damaging inside and outside game which makes him a perfect fantasy performer. He might not pop in 2021, but he’s as good a chance as anyone at a second year breakout.

Isaac Cumming | ADP 207

You could probably put Lachie Ash in this spot too. If you get the chance to handcuff them together, it should increase the pick delivery chances.

The GWS Giants defensive unit has undergone an offseason overhaul, with Heath Shaw, Aiden Corr and Zac Williams departing the club. This opens up plenty of opportunities for the talented youngster. Isaac uses the ball well by hand and foot & has a high footy IQ. Certainly someone with upside late in a draft.

Liam Shiels | ADP 205

I’m all for looking for ‘upside’ late in drafts, but sometimes in the hunt for the one in a thousand breakouts (aka Luke McDonald), we ignore other solid options. Liam Shiels has been a consistent performer over numerous seasons and has also shown that he can punch out some tasty tons in the right match.

Last seasons 67.7 average (84 adjusted) isn’t horrid. While the three seasons prior, he averaged 91, 97 & 95. Getting potential numbers like that in the 20th round of a draft is a steal. He’s certainly worth the pick as some bench depth, if nothing else.

James Harmes | ADP 160

As each day passes, the earlier it seems James Harmes is going in drafts. Why? Because the experiment of him playing in the backline is over. And the club has confirmed that he’ll return to the midfield. Just 12 months ago, he was coming off a 2019 season wherein the midfield her averaged 94. If he delivers numbers like that, he’s a genuine D1 and getting picked up in drafts at a position of a D5.

Luke Davies-Uniacke | ADP 193

As a junior, Luke Davies-Uniacke drew comparisons to Carlton and West Coast champion Chris Judd. Sadly, injuries haven’t been kind over the past few seasons to the former first round pick.

Now fit, he’s finally firing and ready to establish himself in the North midfield. LDU is an explosive midfielder and has elite stoppage traits. If it all clicks for him, he can push an average of 85-95.

Xavier Duursma | ADP 253

All the preseason hype is head towards both Zak Butters and Connor Rozee. And understandably so. However, I think coaches forget about the scoring potential of Xavier Duursma. In his second AFL game, he scored 102, and across the remainder of his debut season, he scored another ton plus an additional four scores between 90-99.

The third year breakout rule is in effect for the archer, and given his ADP, the potential upside is insane. He goes from being possible last selected players, to being an on field midfielder.

Toby Nankervis | ADP 169

The knee injury to Ivan Soldo means the Tigers will likely leave Toby Nankervis as a sole ruck for the season, with various talls playing a supporting role. In 2017 & 2018, when the Tigers adopted this strategy, Toby averaged 86 & 89 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 88 & 98 in SuperCoach.

If you choose or are unable to get one of Brodie Grundy, Reilly O’Brien or Max Gawn in your draft, then getting Nank as a late pickup is a handy target.

Sebastian Ross | ADP 221

All it takes is for a couple of injuries in the St Kilda side, and the relevance of Seb Ross will bolt. While you’d never wish injuries on anyone, the Saints have their fair share of ‘injury prone’ midfielders. Recruit Brad Crouch and Dan Hannebery have missed plenty of footy over the last 3 seasons. Should either miss big chunks of this season, then Seb could well get pushed back into a core midfield role.

Between 2016-2019 he averaged 98, 102, 107 & 94. At this point of the draft, where he’s basically last picked in your team, there is now risk. And he doesn’t just have ‘potential’; he’s a proven performer. When looking for upside, the ‘proven’ is a better pick than the ‘potential’ scorer.

Lance Franklin | ADP 214

Are you a forward? And do you have the potential to score over 80? If so, coaches will consider you on draft day! The scoring history of Lance Franklin even at 1,000 years old isn’t the concern. Rather it’s on his durability. But at this point of the draft, it’s all upside.

I wrote about Lance Franklin earlier in the preseason. Read his article from the 50 Most Relevant here.

Luke Shuey | ADP 122

It isn’t a ‘flashy’ pick, nor is ita drastically ‘late’ pick. But given what Luke Shuey can do, it’d be a great get to get him even at his ADP on draft day. Before 2020, Luke was an incredibly durable player, and his scoring consistency was incredibly reliable.

Between 2015-2019 he missed just 6 games and averaged 93, 94, 99, 98, 87 & 101. You can put down his poor scoring of last year due to a few injury niggles and nothing more. A fit Shuey will become one of the best picks on the draft day given his return at this point in a draft.

Mitch Wallis | ADP 221

Thin pickings here, most dogs you want OK, draft coaches, you know it, but the forward stocks in 2021 suck. So it’s players with job security and scoring potential that can pop that we’re looking at later in the draft. The Bulldogs new Vice-Captain Mitch Wallis won’t get any midfield time, but he’s safely inside the Dogs best. However, because so much of his scoring is based on tackles and goals, if the Doggies can dominate the inside 50 game, he should turn in several 70-90+ scoring games.

AFLFantasy Preseason Watchlist | Carlton Blues

The Blues stormed home in 2019. Can it continue in 2020? And which Blues are on our preseason radar?

BREAKOUT: Will Setterfield – $498,000 (MID)

Was one of the most selected players last season, and while he didn’t quite live up to the hype, we feel people might be quick to judge the young 21 years old coming off an ACL with only 2 prior games under his belt. From all pre-season reports, Setterfield has regained strength in the knee, and has now been able to put on a lot of upper body weight and looks set for a move into the midfield alongside Patrick Cripps.

Carlton has been desperate to find another tall, big-bodied midfield beast to take some of the heat off Cripps, and at 192cm Will Setterfield fits that frame. He is a little awkwardly priced, and probably not a candidate to be a keeper in your midfield, but we definitely reckon he will add at least 10-15 points onto his 2019 average of 67 so could be a very handy cash cow

TRACK: Sam Docherty – $563,000 (DEF)

Going to be one of the most watched players of this pre-season. Coming off two ACLs, Docherty hasn’t played since 2017 where he averaged 116.8. Now priced at an average of just 76, if he can get to Round 1 unscathed he should start the season as one of the most selected players in the competition.

ROOKIE: Tom DeKoning – $190,000 (RUC)

We don’t think he will set the world on fire scoring-wise, but with the injury clouds floating around Matthew Kruezer, Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow, there could be a bit of game time on the table for the versatile 200cm big man in his third season.

The ruck bench spot has for a long time been a free for all, but with the breakout of Reilly O’Brien last year and seeing how much coin he made as a cash cow, it might be handy to find a cheap rookie ruckman who is set to play a few games

UNDERDOG: Jack Martin – $619,000 (FWD/MID)

There are a few hoping the change of scenery will do Jack Martin a world of good this year. A very highly touted youngster, he has been at the top level for 6 years now, almost 100 games to his name but still yet to deliver a whole lot to the fantasy world.

Was averaging 88 before the bye last year when he fell out of favour with Gold Coast, will be interesting to see how Carlton use him. The addition of Eddie Betts hopefully allows Jack to play up the ground but if he gets stuck in a forward pocket his scoring might struggle

#2 Most Relevant: Will Setterfield

The talented Will Setterfield finally became part of the navy blues in 2019, and he now will add some physical presence and support for Patrick Cripps.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Will Setterfield
Age: 21
Club: Carlton Blues
Position: Midfield/Forward

2017 Highest Score: 
70 Vs Richmond (AFLFantasy)
63 Vs Richmond (SuperCoach)

2017 Average: 
49.5 (AFLFantasy)
44.5(SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $144,900
AFLFantasy Price: $251,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $212,400

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

After joining the Giant’s academy as a teen, Will Setterfield was initially being bid on by Carlton in his draft season by was matched by GWS in the 2016 draft. Now that he has made it to Carlton he provides a long-term option for Carlton’s developing outfit.

He may only have two career games at AFL under his belt due to an unfortunate run with injuries. However, in his second match, he copped a heavy knock to the heard early in the third quarter causing him to miss the remainder of the game. In his AFL debut, he had 12 possessions, three marks & 6 tackles. However, Setterfield had shown promise, averaging 25 disposals, 4.7 clearances and 7.6 tackles across seven NEAFL games in 2017.

Entering into the 2018 season Will was again priced cheaply and looked to be a promising cash cow. Sadly thought Setterfield ruptured an anterior cruciate ligament during a practice match against the Swans which ended his season.

At under 18 levels, many talent scouts had compared him to Western Bulldogs star Marcus Bontempelli and even Fremantle’s David Mundy where his physical presence and composure was evident.

MY TAKE

Something that can destroy the momentum of any fantasy coaches season is when their cash cow is in and out of the side and not consistently making money week in week out for 6-10 weeks. One of the great unknowns with many first and even some second-year players is their security to stay in the side week in week out. Who cares how good they can score, but if they’re not in the team, they won’t be making you any money. The strength of Will Setterfield is that he is safely inside Carlton’s best 22.

The other weapon as a cash cow which he possesses is the fact is he’s a dual position player and eligible both in the midfield and forward line. The DPP link opens up numerous opportunities both for on-field scoring flexibility b in the rolling lockout formats of the game where you can even more easily maximise on-field scores of cash cows by moving him (if needed) to the bench in either line.

The only real knock on Setterfield has been his body and his run of injuries across not just his time at AFL but even in his junior seasons. In 2014 he injured his patella and required surgery. The season following he missed the back half of the season with another knee injury. 2016 saw him suffer from a concussion, foot injury and injured his AC joint. 2017 saw his season interrupted with a reasonably major ankle injury and then last year he did his ACL.

He hasn’t had a faultless preseason, but over the past few weeks he’s entered into full training and will be ready to play in the JLT community series and barring any more setbacks is a certainty to debut for the Blues in round one.

He’s already one of the most highly owned players across all formats of the game and by round one I expect he could be the most popular cash cow across every format. I’m starting him everywhere, and I expect you probably are too.

Embed from Getty Images

DRAFT DECISION

I wouldn’t be opposed to the using one of the last few rounds selection in either a keeper or single season draft. The possibilities are substantial, and the risk at that position in the draft is not existent.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say at our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd! 

Become a Patron!

NEXT UP…

Tune into our Facebook page at 9pmEDST for a clue