Year: 2019

Round Table: Carlton
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Read Time:5 Minute, 9 Second

Today we turn our attention for our club-by-club discussion towards Carlton. Despite sitting at the lower end of the ladder for some time now, the Blues are still highly relevant in all forms of AFL fantasy platforms.

So, we gathered up a few members of the Panel and answering in isolation, pitched a few categories to see who we’re all keeping an eye on this preseason – a player to lock in now, an expected breakout contender, the best cash cow, an interesting left-field option, and a sneaky name to file away for a value draft pick.

These are the players on each Panelist’s watchlist right now:

The Lock:

Jimmy: If you believe that Nic Newman might increase his average to the ~90 point mark with a new role at a new home, then he is an immediate lock as an underpriced premium for his line. At this point I’m inclined to load up.

MJ: I normally don’t like paying top dollar for my rookies, but with Sam Walsh I’ll make an exception. He’ll play all 22 games if his body allows him and should start more as an outside midfielder. Great athelete and should score very well.

Rids: Patty Cripps (SC only) I will only go him in SC this year. The amount of carnage his body has already suffered means he is really one good knock away from a month plus out of the game. Contested ball beast that suits SC scoring. Needs to find more outside ball before I jump on in AF and DT again.

Tim: Kade Simpson has been a premium, consistent and durable, for many years.

Fox: Patrick Cripps in SuperCoach. 2018 he gave us 4 scores over 150 and 10 of his last 11 tons, unstoppable and untaggable, has the ability to take his game to another gear, you really need to start him.

The Breakout

Jimmy: Will Setterfield might just be the most relevant player in all formats this season.

MJ: He was getting plenty of preseason hype in 2018, but even though it’s early doesn’t seem to be getting the same amount of love in 2019. That said, I still think it’s only a matter of time before Charlie Curnow is one of the best forward options in fantasy footy let alone in the whole AFL.

Rids: Could be anyone out of Fisher, Curnow, Dow, Weitering. I will go Caleb Marchbank to average 75+ across all formats.

Tim: Paddy Dow. Hard to pick Carlton’s next breakout however this kid’s under 18 form was as good as any so would not surprise at all if it was him.

Fox: Hello Newman, one of my first picked after Doch left the building, endured a tough year learning to play utility/NEAFL under Horse at Sydney, expect a tidy return as the ball enters the Blues back line in record numbers in 2019, expect a 15 point plus increase.

The Cash Cow

MJ: The club has heavily invested in Liam Stocker and he should be rewarded with early games. Had no problems scoring at the junior level.

Jimmy: I’ll be watching Hugh Goddard this preseason. He won’t score 100’s every (any) week but if he looks like getting regular games then he could be a very handy D8 type. And of course keep an eye out for news on Michael Gibbons.

Rids: Sam Walsh will get big minutes in the best role during his first season. Premium price tag will scare many but reckon he will go 70+ and make some very quick dollars.

Tim: Will Setterfield. New club, more scoring opportunity?

Fox: Sam Walsh is already talked about as one of the best rookies this year with a complete game, don’t be unhappy paying his premium rookie price.

The Unique

Jimmy: For all the reasons we’re talking up players like Daniher & Lynch, I think Charlie Curnow needs to be in the conversation as well. The kid is an absolute beast and the new rules will only help him.

MJ: Last season Zac Fisher showed plenty of scoring promise especially early in the year. Another preseason under the belt wouldn’t surprise me if his average jumped up again.

Rids: Ed Curnow. This fella just keeps scoring. Cannot see why he will go back tagging now as the Blues try to learn how to score.

Tim: Matthew Kreuzer was a top ruck two years ago. If you think he plays 20+ games then he could be a great unique for you.

Fox: Matty Kruezer could be another answer to your R2 dilemma, went 110 SC points over 21 games in 2017 and presents at well under value in 2019

The Draft Smokey

Jimmy: He was underwhelming last year but I’ve still got a bit of time for Matt Kennedy and wouldn’t mind picking him up in the last round or two as deep speculative cover.

MJ: It feels odd to say it but it really could be a make or break season for Jacob Weitering. In his debut season he looked like he could be one of the great scoring SuperCoach defenders for many years. Here’s hoping it all clicks for him this year, you’d get him damn late in your draft.

Rids: Sam Walsh. I really rate this kid. As bench cover he will be fun to own. He may even pick up another position thru the season if ya lucky. Nothing wrong with drafting kids in a season draft.

Tim: Dale Thomas was a sensational free agent pickup in drafts last year as he was playing in defense. If he keeps that role he will be left later than he should be in pretty much all drafts.

Fox: Ed Curnow is a habitual, under the radar, low trust, kick the air out of his tyres type of guy, even when he goes 100, let’s do it all again Ed in 2019 with another 100 point average

So! Who makes the cut for you in each category? Have your say on Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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#42 Most Relevant: Jack Billings
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Read Time:4 Minute, 54 Second

When he’s on fire he’s an unstoppable points-scoring machine, when he’s not you’d be better off with a rookie. So why is Jack Billings in the 50 most relevant?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jack Billings
Age: 23
Club: St Kilda
Position: Forward

2018 Highest Score: 
123 Vs Brisbane (AFLFantasy)
133 Vs Brisbane (SuperCoach)

2018 Average: 
85.1 (AFLFantasy)
80.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $437,600
AFLFantasy Price: $618,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $609,300

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It was a tale of two halves for fantasy coaches that owned Jack Billings last year. Things started off OK with a 123 in AFLFantasy and 133 SuperCoach against the Lions, however, that was the only time he’d score over 90 until round 13 against Gold Coast. Between round 2-12 he averaged 69.8 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 62.6 in SuperCoach. During this time St Kilda coach Alan Richardson chose to use Jack as an exclusive forward. He barely ventured outside forward 50 and was given almost no midfield rotations let alone the freedom to push up the flanks. The back half was a totally different story, despite not picking up huge centre bounce numbers we started to see Billings released back into the role that made him a premium forward just 12 months earlier.

That role is of a forward who doesn’t just stay inside 50 but rather starts from then and then pushes up the ground, adds support to midfielders up the wing and his elite field kicking skills is used to cut the angles.

From round 13 until seasons end in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he scored 4 tons, didn’t dip below 75 and averaged 96.8. For SuperCoach during this 10 week period, he registered 3 tons, went under 77 just once and averaged 93.4.

These averages start to reflect the scores from 2017 across all formats. That year he scored 11 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam hundreds and averaged just shy of 95. While for SuperCoach it was 10 triple-figure scores with an average of 92. For coaches who take the punt and select Jack in there starting squads they could be getting a premium forward at the value price of 10 points below his pervious season.

MY TAKE

If you were bullish on Jack Billings last preseason then, in all honesty, you should be again in 2019. Last year if anything reconfirmed to fantasy coaches that when utilised in the right way Billings is a top 10 averaging forward in all formats. The reason I suggest you should be bullish again is because if anything he’s priced under his proven scoring potential that you banked on him to deliver last year. Priced around 10 points below last seasons average should certainly indicate you should be just as if not more invested in him.

Sometimes as a fantasy coach, we use the same logic to rule a player into contention, yet we don’t follow that same logic for another player. Sadly, confirmation bias can reign supreme in certain sections. For example one of the most hyped forwards of the preseason so far is Josh Dunkley he flew home in 2018 with an average of 115.7 in SuperCoach and 112.4 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam in his final 9 games of the year. The reason coaches are hot on selecting him is that of his end of season points and role many believe that will continue for Dunks. That may be true, and fingers crossed it is, but Billings also averaged as a premium forward during the same stretch but is not being talked up with the same potential. Both have shown that when given the preferable role they are fantasy forward premiums. My bugbear is when fantasy coaches don’t use the same logic for different players subjectively. If you don’t wanna select Billings, don’t pick him, just don’t dismiss the similarities of the end of season role vs positional risk he along with others posses.

Whether you choose to start or upgrade Jack Billings the possible risk of role change still exists, as the Saints coaching staff have shown they have no hesitation moving him. However, if you choose to upgrade to him mid-season the possible value reward that he offers doesn’t exist. Seems to me as though is that coaches who begin with him gain all the possible reward and share equally in the risk with coaches who upgrade.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

12 months ago if you wanted to own Jack Billings you’d have been likely picking him inside the top 20-25 selections overall. In 2019 you won’t be needing to draft him that early. While still inside the top 20 forwards in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 30 in SuperCoach I believe he presents potential value to jump into the top 10 averages overall on where his current average currently ranks him. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam coaches he’ll likely end up being drafted as an F2, while in SuperCoach you might get lucky to pick him as an F3, although I’m not certain you’ll get that lucky.

In a keeper league now is the time to strike, 12 months ago he was one of the first forwards off the board and I do believe now is the time to strike, because if he bounces back like his end of season numbers suggest you’ll be paying way overs at some point in the future.

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#43 Most Relevant: Rory Sloane
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Read Time:3 Minute, 42 Second

Injuries impacted Rory and the Crows 2018 season, but the bright-side of a down season is that he’s priced at his lowest average since 2011. Hello value town.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Rory Sloane
Age: 28
Club: Adelaide
Position: Midfield

2018 Highest Score: 
115 Vs Richmond (AFLFantasy)
141 Vs Richmond (SuperCoach)

2018 Average: 
89.9 (AFLFantasy)
96.1 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $524,300
AFLFantasy Price: $653,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $643,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

From a fantasy perspective, it was his worst season since 2011 when he was just 21 years old. The reason behind such a poor season was a foot injury he suffered during the Crows win against Richmond in round 2. Despite the injury, he went on to finish the game with a score of 115 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 141 SuperCoach points. He struggled his way through matches against St Kilda and Collingwood but after round 4 he wasn’t seen again until the round 15 clash against West Coast. From then on we started to see some scores that were familiar from the Crows vice-captain.

From his remaining 8 games of the season 6 times in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored 90+ including 3 scores over 106. While in SuperCoach he had just the one game where failed to score over 84 and had 4 hundred plus scores including 3 consecutive to end the year.

These numbers are much similar to what he’s previously delivered especially in the past 2 seasons. Over the 2 seasons prior he averaged 108 & 110 in SuperCoach and missed just the one match. In these 43 matches 23 of these, he scored over 100 with 15 of these being over 130. For DreamTeam/AFLFantasy in 2016-2017 Sloane averaged 106 & 107 in those seasons he reached the triple figures mark in 24 games and went over 120 in 17 of them.

He’s previously been scoring high enough to be a top 10 midfielder in terms of the total points and given that we’re paying for someone who at his price isn’t inside the top 20-30 midfielders it screams huge potential value.

MY TAKE

The big question mark on Sloane’s fantasy career is on how he handles a tag. Even last year his scores were impacted when an opposition midfielder tagged him. In his return from injury in round 15 Eagles midfielder Mark Hutchings limited his output to 14 possessions and a 68 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 89 in SuperCoach. A month later Melbourne’s James Harmes slowed him to a score of 95 in AFLFantasy and 66 for SuperCoach and Brisbane’s Jarrod Berry had a similar impact restricting him to just 16 possessions and a score of 77 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 84 in SuperCoach.

The fact is at some point that he will be tagged and it will dent his scoring for that week, however, if coaches are patient historically his low games will be balanced out by his big ceiling weeks. A few early tags like potentially in round 3 against Scott Selwood and round 4 against Ben Jacobs may be enough of a reason though to scare off a few coaches. However, matches Crows will be pencilling in to win against St Kilda, Gold Coast and Fremantle between round 5-7 may just level things back if Sloane gets off the leash.

The big difference between Sloane and others at his price point is that he’s a proven performer over a number of years and isn’t someone that offers unproven potential. He offers fantastic value based on the price investment and could very well be the 2019 version of Stephen Coniglio. By that I mean to be someone who’s averaged 100 before, offers value due to an injury impacted previous season and ends up being someone you keep as your final on-field midfielder. For mine, he’s a certain start for AFLFantasy and right in the mix for DreamTeam and SuperCoach.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Sloane presents some great value for his eventual owner in a draft, you should be able to pick him up in the place when drafting your MID 3, even the possibility of a M4 spot, but in reality he could push as high to become your MID 2 based on his potential output. He’ll still go inside the top 7-9 rounds but that’s still a few rounds later than where you’d have got him in previous seasons.

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Round Table: Brisbane
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Read Time:5 Minute, 9 Second

Next on the agenda for our club-by-club discussions is the Brisbane Lions. Widely tipped to begin climbing up the ladder this season, there are many interesting options on their list for your assorted fantasy teams this year.

We gathered up a few members of the Panel and answering in isolation, pitched a few categories to see who we’re all keeping an eye on this preseason – a player to lock in now, an expected breakout contender, the best cash cow, an interesting left-field option, and a sneaky name to file away for a value draft pick.

These are the players on each Panelist’s watchlist right now:

The Lock:

Jimmy: There were only six players listed as defenders in 2019 who averaged above 90 points in RDT/AF last season. Alex Witherden finished just shy of that mark but should be a comfortable bet to finish the year amongst the top handful.

MJ: Easy selection for me here, I’m big on defender Alex Witherden averaging enough to push into the top 10. Back to back seasons averaging over 80 and has shown he’s got a big enough ceiling with multiple 120+ scores across all formats.

Rids: Lachie Neale should keep his midfield minutes so won’t go below what he has averaged the past few years. Not sure he is uber premium but he does have a huge ceiling and Zorko will attract the tag most weeks.

Tim: Alex Witherden. Hard to pick a ‘lock’ but felt this guy was already a premium and more likely to increase than decrease scoring.

Fox: They don’t call him Locky Neale for no reason, 16 SC tons in his last 18 games, only missed 2 games in 5 years and he’s a 110 point mid you want in your team

The Breakout

Jimmy: The obvious choice here is Hugh McCluggage but I’m particularly interested in watching the preseason form of Cam Rayner, Rhys Matheison and Ben Keays as well. There are a lot of quality young mids at the Lions and I’m fascinated to see which ones take the next step this season.

MJ: The loss of his DPP actually means he’ll present some potential value for owners. As a midfielder, I don’t mind selecting Hugh McLuggage who certainly is a breakout candidate and possible 90+ average across the formats.

Rids: Hugh McCluggage. This kid was a superstar through his junior days. This is the year that it should translate into AFL. He is mid only though which is a little bit of a dampener.

Tim: Hugh McCluggage. This will be popular but he just looks ready to take a step up.

Fox: Expect another double digit point increase from Hugh McCluggage, had 6 games under 60 points last year and entering into his 3rd year, a sound investment

The Cash Cow

MJ: I think he’s got to fight his way into the side but i like what I’ve seen from Cedric Cox in the handful of AFL games he’s played. He brings plenty of line breaking speed and has plenty of skills. Hopefully the coaching staff give him an extended run at it.

Jimmy: Lincoln McCarthy makes an interesting case study if he starts the season in the first 22. Priced a little higher than I’d like but his role is worth monitoring over the JLT.

Rids: Ely Smith. This kid is a ready to go big bodied mid. It will just depend on whether the Lions require another one or not as to whether he gets the games required.

Tim: Ely Smith Found this hard for Brissy so again he just seems slightly more likely than others.

Fox: Throw the blanket over any of Ely Smith, Connor McFadyen or Noah Answerth for a possible mid season cashie

The Unique

Jimmy: Can Dayne Zorko bounce back to previous form? He represents massive value on his 2018 average if you believe he can.

MJ: I’d only do this if big Oscar McInerney or Archie Smith aren’t named but it seems fantasy coaches have forgotten the safe 100+ averages we’d get from Stefan Martin if he’s the solo big man.

Rids: Alex Witherden. This kid can play. His scoring will increase as the Lions play better football. Not sure he is uber but wont be too many points in it this year. T

Tim: Stefan Martin has been scoring up and around the top rucks in all formats in recent years and won’t be highly owned.

Fox: What better way for a sun savaged Lyon to roar back into calculation than to throw him into a den with his pride. Hard to believe he averaged 123 DT after 3 rounds in 2018.

The Draft Smokey

Jimmy: Especially in keeper leagues, Eric Hipwood is one that I would love to have deep on my list this year. He is developing very nicely and will only get better as the Lions improve as a whole. Target in keepers and consider as one of your last picks in single season leagues.

MJ: He’s developing nicely, but you should be able to draft Jarrod Berry late in most drafts. Spent most of 2018 learning as a tagger what the workrate required of an elite midfielder. Don’t be shocked if the Lions coaching staff give him the freedom to hunt the ball.

Rids: Mitch Robinson just keeps scoring no matter where he plays. He will feature very late in drafts and is always good for a 80+.

Tim: Luke Hodge was ignored a lot in drafts last year but had another solid year. Lions on the improve so could be similar again.

Fox: Believe it or not Dayne Zorko, had a massive 2016-2017 campaign before getting sunk by heavy tags and poor form in 2018, in an unforgiving fantasy world he’ll be very much on the nose with some coaches in 2019, with his high ceiling it might pay to throw him an early life line, how early is the question.

So! Who makes the cut for you in each category? Have your say on Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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#44 Most Relevant: Callum Mills
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Read Time:5 Minute, 1 Second

The time is now for Callum Mills to establish himself as a young star of the game. The good news for him, the Swans and fantasy footy coaches is he has been presented with the opportunity.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Callum Mills
Age: 21
Club: Sydney Swans
Position: Defender

2018 Highest Score: 
97 Vs GWS Giants (AFLFantasy)
105 Vs GWS Giants (SuperCoach)

2018 Average: 
74.2 (AFLFantasy)
79 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $428,900
AFLFantasy Price: $N/A
AFLDreamTeam Price: $530,900

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

As a junior Callum Mills was a dominant midfielder and he’d often use his big-bodied frame to win the ball and dominate games. In 2014 as a bottom age player he gathered 40 disposals in a NEAFL game for the Swans reserves team not bad for a 17-year-old. Many talent scouts in his draft year (2015) believed Mills was the complete midfielder in the draft and were it not for injuries would’ve been widely viewed as the best player in the draft pool.

In his debut season, he was one of the best cash cows for fantasy coaches, and he went on to win the Rising Star award. That year of 2016 he averaged 72 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam points from 22 games and 77 in SuperCoach, not bad for a guy that was used almost exclusively off half-back in a role he’d never played before as a junior.

What excited fantasy coaches for the long-term were his final nine games of the year. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 85.4 and didn’t score below 73 while in SuperCoach during this stretch of 9 games he averaged 87.5 and had the lowest score of 74 while hitting the hundred mark twice.

His 2017 season showed some further skill and competence development and while his averages did take a dip, one of the factors was a game he was KO’d early in the opening term by Tom Bugg and failed to register a score in SuperCoach while AFLFantasy/DreamTeam owners would’ve enjoyed his 1 point from that game. 2018 started well enough with 2 of his opening three games with 90+ scores across all formats. However, an injury where Mills broke his foot in an accident after training before round 10 ended his season.

While the stats don’t indicate a huge fantasy breakout is on the cards, the fact is that with the departure of Dan Hannebery and the need to add some new dynamics to the Swans midfield, I can see Mills being released to play as an influential midfielder this year. He’s already declared his hand is saying his wish is to move there permanently and going by the few midfield rotations he was given last year he’s shown he’s more than ready to take the mantle along with Isaac Heeney and Luke Parker in the Swans new midfield era.

MY TAKE

Here’s the thing, while he’s produced nothing of spectacular fantasy note thus far he’s done all his scoring off the halfback, in a position while very competent is not his natural environment. The Swans 2018 season while still managing to make finals started to show some midfield cracks in what had been for years the side’s strength. If Sydney is to go again and have a crack at finals in 2019 and beyond, I believe it’ll be the inclusions of young stars like Mills into the midfield that will aid this.

In my opinion, they won’t get back to the top of the tree on the back of the current midfield group, something new needs to be done and Callum Mills has fine-tuned areas of his game that needed work on for him to be the complete midfielder at AFL level. The time for Mills to enter into the Sydney side as an out and out midfielder is now. While Isaac Heeney is part of the long-term midfield of the Swans, I still believe his presence is still needed heavily inside forward 50 for the Swans to be less Lance Franklin dependant. The significant midfield change the Swans need to make is Mills into the guts.

At his price, he doesn’t offer a large amount of price growth in him, and so if you are selecting him, it’d be because you believe he can stretch his way upwards towards the top 10 averaging defenders which I think could happen if he’s released into the midfield.

Mills is very much a gut call that I’m bullish on and makes the 50 most relevant because if he does transition into a substantial gain of midfield minutes I can see a comfortable 15 points per game increase if not more, especially with growth in the tackles and disposals columns as he’d be around the ball considerably more.

Until we see it declared in the preseason by coach John Longmire of a permanent move and then played out in some of the 2 JLT matches, then fantasy coaches can have nothing more than have him placed on a watch list as a potential breakout defender.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Depending on when you hold your draft and also if the scenarios happen that I mention above do take place where he goes in the draft will be of huge variation. He’s currently ranked within the range of around the 40th defender depending on the format you play, however, his return on investment could see him be anywhere from a small boost to pushing inside the top 30 if he retains his half back role right up to a top 10 if he’s given the midfield role.

If you were to draft him in the place of a D3, you’d be content that either way, you’ll get either a consistently performing defender or a potential D2 breakout. Drafting him as a D2 means your either jumping just marginally too early on him, or you’ve gone for a strategy that sees you go harder in either the midfield or forward lines and lighter on down back.

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#45 Most Relevant: Jacob Hopper
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Read Time:4 Minute, 28 Second

When Dylan Shiel departed the GWS Giants he did have one former teammate who was beaming with excitement, Jacob Hopper. Finally, a full-time midfield spot was up for grabs and I fully expect the beast to take it.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jacob Hopper
Age: 21
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Midfield

2018 Highest Score: 
112 Vs Carlton (AFLFantasy)
131 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

2018 Average: 
78.3 (AFLFantasy)
79.4 (SuperCoach

SuperCoach Price: $431,100
AFLFantasy Price: $N/A
AFLDreamTeam Price: $560,100

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

In his draft year, he was ranked by Champion Data as the top prospect and constantly would dominant games inside the contest. In his final season at TAC Cup level the midfielder averaged 23 disposals and more than half of those were won in contested situations. He recorded nearly seven clearances a game and also averaged five tackles. 

In his first season of AFL managed just the 8 games but showed plenty of promise with a score of 97 AFLFantasy and 106 SuperCoach points on debut. His second season was interrupted by hamstring and finger injuries, but his return just before finals certainly was a boost for the Giants including arguably his best career game to that point in the preliminary final loss to the Tigers where he won 13 of his 27 possessions where contested and more than held his own against the eventual premiers.

His 2018 saw his development continue with an increase of his averages with a rise of 13 points in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam to 78 and 17 points in SuperCoach to 79 from the year prior. It’s only a small sample size, but during a 10-week window between mid-season he scored 3 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons and averaged 87.8 while in SuperCoach during the same stretch he averaged 90 with just the 2 centuries. Everything is trending that his fourth season at AFL level he should see him further develop and increase this scoring again and that was before one of the sides best midfielders departed the club.

During the trade window, GWS lost one of the sides premier midfielders in Dylan Shiel and while losing stars from your side hurt the Giants are far from lacking for youngsters ready to take the responsibility inside the midfield unit. These midfield rotations need to be distributed among a few players and while I can see new draftees Jye Caldwell or even Jackson Hateley getting a chance in the side it’ll be existing youngsters like Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper that take on the bulk of the work and responsibility of these rotations. More midfield rotations, more responsibility inside the contest and another preseason under his belt could see Hopper push that average right towards the triple figure range.

MY TAKE

From junior level to NEAFL and now in the AFL Jacob Hopper digs into contests, finds ways to extract the ball out and opponents are finding it increasingly more difficult to stop him. Furthermore, he’s a terrific mark overhead for his size, and also a more than capable finisher around the goal. The comparisons as a junior were to AFL stars, Patrick Dangerfield and Sydney’s Josh Kennedy are certainly not far off the mark.

The question shouldn’t be will he increase his scores and averages, but rather will the increase be enough for salary cap coaches to choose him in there starting squads? We certainly don’t lack for value in all lines, but in the midfield alone players that have already averaged as a premium like Tom Liberatore and Dan Hannebery are strong competitors for a midprice midfield spot. While Anthony Miles hasn’t done it at AFL level consistently he certainly shows promise. All three push could towards the 90’s average marker early on in the year and are cheaper than him. Given his price point in contrast to these others, Hopper needs to average over 100 for coaches that do take the punt on him to gain full benefit from his selection.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Hopper averaged over 100 in all formats of the game this year, but neither would it if he only jumped up 10-13 points and get inside the low 90’s. He’s right in the mix for me in AFLFantasy as I love to look for value options who could push out some premium scores and generate cash early, while in SuperCoach and DreamTeam he faces tough competition for a spot. Far from ruled out of selection, but at this stage, he’s a JLT watch and wait.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Given his current average, Hopper is someone that without any improvement in points would like just be bench coverage probably at best. However, as I’ve discussed I believe there will be significant points gain and as such if you want to own him in a seasonal draft you’ll need to jump a few rounds ahead of where he’s currently positioned. While based on current average he’s a likely M7, in all honesty he’s going 2 maybe 3 midfield positions ahead of that so if you want him M4 wouldn’t be out of the equation. Coaches that land him at M5 would be thrilled.

In a keeper league, I’d be seriously targetting him right now. Everything points to him being a scoring beast for a very long time.

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#46 Most Relevant: Tom Lynch
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Read Time:5 Minute, 45 Second

He was arguably the biggest name to move clubs during the offseason, but will he have a big fantasy footy impact at the Tigers?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Lynch
Age: 26
Club: Richmond Tigers
Position: Forward

2018 Highest Score: 
139 Vs Carlton (AFLFantasy)
180 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

2018 Average: 
67.1 (AFLFantasy)
78.4 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $425,600
AFLFantasy Price: $487,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $479,900

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2018 wasn’t a good season for the Gold Coast Suns as a whole let alone for Tom Lynch. Despite his entering into the season relatively health it became apparent after the opening 6 weeks as Gold Coast coach Stuart Dew confirmed he’d been battling a knee injury as well as managing a sore ankle. He spent the next month getting himself right, and despite playing rounds 11-14 the decisions were made to send him in for surgery on his PCL and see him miss the rest of the season. Even battling an injury he was still able to deliver a few 80+ games against the Saints and Hawks and one standout performance against Carlton where he kicked 8.1 and scored 139 AFLFantasy and 180 SuperCoach points. Yes, I know it’s Carlton, but still, that’s some ceiling. Imagine what he might be able to deliver entering into the high-quality Tigers unit.

Looking at his best fantasy season in 2016 where he averaged that 86 he managed to score above 80 on 16 occasions, 7 of those were hundreds and twice he went on some very impressive scoring runs. Between rounds 1-5 he averaged 101 with a lowest of 81. While in the final 11 games of the season he only dropped his scores below 80 once and averaged 93.5. Not bad for a guy priced in the range where your options include Steven Motlop, Rory Lobb and Shane Edwards.

For SuperCoach the numbers are even more encouraging. During his season of averaging 93, he scored north of 90 in 13 matches, 9 of those hundreds and 4 over 120. Between rounds 1-5 he averaged 105 with a lowest of 71. While in the final 11 games of the season he only dropped his scores below 82 once and averaged 101. If he gets even close to numbers like that and considering his price you could be made for choosing not to start him.

This isn’t a ‘once off either’ during 2014-2017 his lowest SuperCoach seasonal average was 83 with a peak of 93, while in AFLFantasy his lowest was 75 with a personal best of 86. So despite only one season that would have him edging into the top 10 forwards, he’s shown consistently over many seasons he can score well and given his price point he needs to be considered as he offers value of upwards of 20 points per game.

MY TAKE

There was a reason Richmond Football Club made such a big play and offered such a long-term deal for Tom Lynch. When fit and firing he’s arguably one of the (if not the) most dominant big men in the game. Before his 24th birthday, he’d already won All Australian honours, won the Suns club champion twice (both years when Ablett was still at the club) and the side’s goalkicking for 3 consecutive seasons. He’s a fierce competitor, a tireless worker always offering an option on the lead and a difficult matchup in the air for any defender. Even though he’s 199cm and 98kg he’s still in the contest even at the ground level and will more than play his role inside the Tigers offensive pressure. To top it all off his a brilliant leader and already is much loved in and around the club.

During the Tigers shock loss to the Magpies in the Preliminary Final, it was exposed what many die-hard Richmond fans had been quietly saying for years and that is that the club needed another taller avenue inside the forward 50. The inclusion of Lynch not only solves that problem but also gives Jack Riewoldt the opportunity to play higher (if needed) and also likely to get the oppositions second best key defender.

His 2018 numbers are anywhere between 15-20 points beneath his average across all formats from the years prior, and should this normally durable player get through the season unscathed I can see him not just matching those numbers 2016 & 2017, but even pushing them a fraction higher. Richmond’s game style will need to evolve with him inside 50, but I can see that being something only for the better for the side and certainly won’t impact the fantasy output of Lynch.

SuperCoach owners will be more tempted by him at his price, but he does provide value across all formats and has shown a huge ceiling before. An opening round one matchup against a young Carlton backline and on the big stage of the G all the while kicking off the 2019 season is a grand stage and one that Tom has been longing to play one. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the coaches that did start with him were immediately rewarded with a good score. Three of his last 4 scores against the Blues have been 139, 132 and 123 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 112, 161, 180 for SuperCoach.

If you’re considering a mid-range priced forward, then Lynch is someone that needs to be placed on a watchlist at the very least. From my perspective, the only reason you don’t at least consider him is that you’ve decided this far out you’ll only be running a ‘Guns and Rookies’ forward line.

I know plenty of fantasy coaches who have the rule of ‘no key position players except Buddy.’ However, I find rules like that limiting and especially in the preseason closing your mind to possibilities is incredibly dangerous. Tom Lynch was arguably the biggest offseason player move last year and this move should pay immediate dividends for both the club and the player’s fantasy output.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Another difficult player to place in drafts. On potential, he’s certainly in the conversation of a top 10-15 forward in all formats, but I certainly wouldn’t be drafting him in that spot. Because of an injury-interrupted season, you’ll be able to get him later (on the whole) than in previous years of drafts. As always, coaches can often have a bias towards a player who players for the club they support so Tom may go a few rounds ahead of time depending on the amount of Tigers in your league.

I wouldn’t be drafting him in the opening 10 rounds, but if you were able to land Lynch in your F4 position on field that’d be a massive win given he could give returns of an F2. However, if you want him you’ll probably need to go for him as an F3.

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#47 Most Relevant: Nic Newman
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Read Time:4 Minute, 16 Second

One positive thing comes from injuries and that’s opportunities for others. An injury to Sam Docherty could be a huge fantasy boost for Nic Newman.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Nic Newman
Age: 25
Club: Carlton Blues
Position: Defender

2018 Highest Score: 
119 Vs Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
110 Vs Melbourne (SuperCoach)

2018 Average: 
76.1 (AFLFantasy)
72.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $394,100
AFLFantasy Price: $552,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $411,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For years both in the NEAFL and the chances he’s been given at AFL level Nic Newman has shown his fantasy football potential. After being initially selected by the Swans at pick #35 in the 2015 rookie draft he was able to force his way into the side in 2017. That year he was one of the best available cash cows for fantasy coaches. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam coaches he averaged 86.6 from 18 matches, 7 games he scored over his average, 5 of those were hundreds including a match in round 8 against the Roos where he famously was a late inclusion after being dropped and went on to score a career-best 135. In 2017 for SuperCoach he averaged 82.6, 8 scores were over his average with 3 of those tons including his personal best a 151 against North Melbourne.

2018 wasn’t as kind for Nic both from games played and also a fantasy footy output, he managed just 10 games at the elite level and saw his fantasy averages drop 10 points for all scoring formats. This was due in part to some juggle of his previous season’s role with him being used to fill a variety of role gaps in the Swans side and not allowed play the creative link up role we’d seen previously.

Once Jarrod McVeigh signed up for another season plus some additional trade period recruits in Jackson Thurlow and Ryan Clarke it was clear Nic Newman was once again under significant pressure fighting for a spot. A move to Carlton took place in the chance of gaining more opportunities at AFL level.

Nobody wishes injuries on anyone, however, with the horrible news that Carlton co-captain Sam Docherty has injured his knee and will once again require ACL season-ending surgery a vacancy inside the Carlton backline has opened up. Prior to the news, I wasn’t convinced that Newman was going to crack the Blues best 22.

MY TAKE

Nic Newman is very lucky to jag into my 50 most relevant, while he does present potential fantasy footy value it’s hardly a line we lack in stepping stone or breakout candidates. Players such as Brodie Smith, Zach Williams, Pearce Hanley, Grant Birchall,  Wayne Milera, Callum Mills, Jasper Pittard, Andrew McGrath, 
Kade Kolodjashnij and Ryan Burton all have done it before in either full seasons or patches of games and show huge potential to push their averages verging on enough to be top 20 options. And at worst case can match what I believe Newman’s likely output could be but given his price tag in contrast the others could make you more bang for your buck.

The reason he is here is that there is a role in the side he can fill and he has shown potential for a monster ceiling for a defender, more so than many of those listed above. If the ‘stars align’ for Newman then it could be an inspired choice, but at his price, he’s likely to be someone you intended to hold and turn into a premium rather than just use as a stepping stone.

I can see a world where Newman comes out and dominates from a fantasy footy perspective, but I can just as easily see him struggling to find a spot inside the 22. It’s taken some time but the Carlton midfield finally looks like it’s coming together with Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, Matt Kennedy, Paddy Dow, Liam Stocker, Zac Fisher and Will Setterfield taking the bulk of the work. While still young and developing looks like a promising long term core group while still getting some support from Marc Murphy & Ed Curnow. While I do think Newman should get first chance at a defensive 50 role I could easily see him bring more used to lock down on opponents and players like Lochie O’Brien or even Tom Williamson being the play makers from half back.

For me, I can see the potential and understand why someone could be bullish on him, but to go there personally I’d need to see him deliver strongly in the JLT Series to consider him.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Newman is gonna be hard to place in drafts. I guarantee someone is gonna jump on him early whether it be a Blues supporter wanting a Carlton flavor in the back line or an over zealous fantasy coach bullish he’s gonna go 90+. I’d target to draft him as. D3, but you might not be able to get him by then.

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#48 Most Relevant: Joe Daniher
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Read Time:5 Minute, 25 Second

At the verge of entering the 2018 season, Essendon’s prized key position forward looked set to dominate the AFL season. However, a nagging groin injury started to impact his ability to deliver so the Bombers took a cautious approach and ended his season. The one positive is, for fantasy coaches in 2019 we could have an absolute bargain on our hands.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Joe Daniher
Age: 24
Club: Essendon Bombers
Position: Forward

2018 Highest Score: 
104 Vs Collingwood (AFLFantasy)
93 Vs Port Adelaide (SuperCoach)

2018 Average: 
63.8 (AFLFantasy)
56.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $260,900
AFLFantasy Price: $560,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $411,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Entering into the 2018 season SuperCoach players and especially Essendon fans were salivating at the possibilities of what Joe Daniher could bring to the football field. And it was with good reason, 5 years into his career and Joe was starting to deliver on the big stage consistently, not just for the odd game, or patches in games. Daniher wasn’t just impacting the games around the ground but inside 50 and on the scoreboard. Despite missing plenty of shots, he still converted through the big sticks at only over 62% and narrowly missed winning his first ever Coleman Medal in 2017.

A look into his 2017 fantasy numbers further confirms this. For SuperCoach he averaged a career-best season of 86, a jump of almost 20 points from his personal best. That year he scored 90+ on nine occasions, six times over 100, including a five-goal haul and a 124 point match against the Eagles. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam coaches he boosted his previous seasons average by 13 points up to a best of 85. That seasonal average included 11 scores north of 90, including 6 tons. While like all key positions forwards he does require bags of goals to accumulate his scores, it’s important to note that from his 22 games he kicked 3 or more goals in 14 matches. Not a bad conversions rate.

Sadly for coaches that jumped on the Daniher train in 2018, it derailed incredibly quickly. A nagging groin injury not only hurt his ability to impact in the match but also to the fact that after seven games he was sent in for surgery and missed the remainder of Essendon’s season.

However, let’s look at the silver lining. The positive for coaches is he is priced with a discount after playing just seven games, and that’s already on an average that was between 20-30 points below his average the year before. If Joe can get himself fully fit and firing this preseason, I struggle to see a world where he doesn’t bounce back at least to the mid 80’s average of 2017. Every chance that it may even be more given some to be expected natural improvement and the significant boost Dylan Shiel will bring to the midfield unit of Essendon.

If any fantasy coach is considering a ‘stepping stone’ or ‘breakout’ option in the forward line, especially for SuperCoach, then you must seriously consider big Joe!

MY TAKE

Confession Time. On my original 50 most relevant back in November I had Joe considerably higher than the high 40’s range he now sits in. He was verging on being inside the top 25 given all of the scoring history and natural development expected of such a quality key position forward. However, several weeks ago AFL writer Cal Twomey wrote an article (click here to read it) suggesting that Joe was in doubt for round one. While he still has months before the season proper gets underway to be fit, this far out it certainly screams alarm bells for fantasy coaches given that in mid-December the club is still unsure if he’ll play round 1.

While at his price he’s verging on a glorified cash cow in SuperCoach for DreamTeam & AFLFantasy coaches for Joe to reach his relevance peak then he needs to play round 1. The reason being is why he does have the potential to be a 90+ averaging forward across the formats he faces stiff competition of being a likely top 6-10 averaging forward.

Patrick Dangerfield, Isaac Heeny, Josh Dunkley, Toby McLean, Devon Smith, Sam Menegola and Lance Franklin all lay strong claims to be in the top bracket, and that’s before considering other viable candidates like Jack Billings, Jesse Hogan, Tim Kelly and even new hawk Chad Wingard pushing for a top 10 spot. Can you have confidence that Joe will average more than them? Possible, yes, but not overwhelming confidence that he’ll better their annual output. I truly believe while starting squads are essential for success for fantasy coaches, the real winners and losers come from the trades they make during the season.

To trade him into your side in DreamTeam or AFLFantasy as an ‘upgrade’ takes more faith than riding him like a breakout or stepping stone option which he’d start as in your side as.

His relevance is very high, higher than where I’ve placed him if he plays through some JLT and gets named round 1. If he does deliver premium numbers and he becomes someone you keep, happy days you’ve got a value premium, if not you bank the points and cash he generates you along the way. I always forecast that with any midprice selections I need to plan to trade that player at some point, I may never need to (e.g. coaches who started with Clayton Oliver 2 years back) but I need to be prepared for it.

If he plays JLT and gets named round 1, he’s virtually a SuperCoach lock for me and will be for many SC players. While in the other formats I’ll consider it. Even if he’s not right in round 1, at some point in the season if he’s fit, I’m aboard the Daniher train in SuperCoach.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Joe’s a hard one to land, and depending on the format he’s likely to vary where he’s selected. On potential, he could be a clear F2, 90 average in your side, but I wouldn’t be drafting him that high. In reality, for seasonal drafts, he’s probably not selected inside the top 100 selections and is someone you might even be able to draft inside the early teen rounds depending on the knowledge and quality of coaches your up against.

Keeper leagues it’s a different story altogether, given his age and the fact he’ll retain forward status for his career I wouldn’t feel it’s out of place to consider selecting Joe inside the top 70 picks. That said, I’d be confident that you should be able to get him considerably later than that given he’s only had one fantasy relevant season of note.

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Round Table: Adelaide
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Read Time:3 Minute, 47 Second

Let’s begin our club-by-club discussions with the Crows. No matter how you think their 2019 season will play out, there are bound to be some relevant players who you can lock away, roll the dice on breaking out, generate some cash, or pick as a left field unique option when everyone else is going vanilla. And of course, we all love a smokey pick that you can steal mid/late draft.

We gathered up a few members of the Panel and pitched each of these categories to see who we’re all keeping an eye on this preseason:

The Lock:

Jimmy: Rory Laird. He’s priced awfully high but you know what you’re getting. Lock him in.

MJ: It’s hard for me to go past Matt Crouch. He’s a picture of scoring who barely scores below 100. I’m confident he’ll average 110+ in all formats.

Rids: Brodie Smith. Needs to get through preseason with no scares but is priced perfectly to take the punt.

Tim: Matt Crouch. He’s been a ball magnet his whole career and I feel he’s slightly underpriced, plus has been very durable to date.

The Breakout

Jimmy: Jordan Galluci. The first round draft pick now has a couple of preseasons under his belt. He’s a bold pick to start but could easily jump a solid 20pts/game.

MJ: Hard to go past Wayne Milera. A move off half back last season displayed to the footy world what Crows fans have known since his draft days. That is that Wayne posses all the class, dash & poise that reminds fans of Andrew McLeod. Does Brodie Smith’s return impact his scoring? Possibly, and only 2 games last year where they played together is to small a sample size to tell.

Rids: Wayne Milera is probably the one here although it will be interesting to see the role.

Tim: Jordan Gallucci. I found it pretty hard to nail a ‘breakout’ for the Crows, but reckon Galluci might just climb into another bracket this season.

The Cash Cow

Jimmy: Brodie Smith. Comes with a nice discount and if he can stay on the park, should increase in price nicely in the first month to get within striking distance of a premium.

MJ: He’s no lock in the side, but I’m going for Shane McAdam. Crows valued him super highly and to grab him along with pick 13 for McGovern was a massive win for the club. Speaking of McGovern, his departure has created a vacancy inside forward 50 and for mine he looks like the most likely and versatile options to take the spot.

Rids: Chayce Jones will get games this year. Kid is silky smooth and can find the pill.

Tim: Chayce Jones. Crows need mids, this kid seems a good one and not a stranger to finding a bit of the ball.

The Unique

Jimmy: Rory Sloane. Priced under 90 in RDT and Fantasy but has gone at 105+ the two years prior. Can he bounce back?

MJ: It was a more than handy season for Bryce Gibbs in his debut season as a Crow, but with multiple midfield injuries Gibbs was forced to play a more inside midfield role. The return of Sloane & Crouch should free him up to get the inside & outside balance of his game back on track and as such keep his average safely into the hundreds.

Rids: Tom Lynch. Should get that link role back with the intro of the 666.

Tim: Rory Sloane feels a bit underpriced – will always have the ceiling he showed in 2017 so with Gibbs and Crouches on board he has high upside and won’t be highly owned.

The Draft Smokey

Jimmy: Brad Crouch. Didn’t play last year so won’t appear in the standard UF rankings. He’ll slide further than he should.

MJ: He isn’t a sexy pick and generally goes 2-3 rounds later than he should, but Bryce Gibbs always averages over 100 and has only missed 16 possible games during his entire career. Durable and consistent scoring, a perfect combination in drafts.

Rids: Rory Sloane. Will slide in all drafts this year. Pick him up as a m4/m5 if you can

Tim: Tom Lynch is always good for an 85-95 avg and is always a forward. Never a sexy pick but always worth his draft value.

So! Who makes the cut for you in each category? Have your say on Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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