#19 Most Relevant | Sean Darcy

Read Time:8 Minute, 6 Second

In 2021 we saw the emergence of plenty of new top-end premiums. One of the most surprising was the season of Fremantle ruck Sean Darcy. After overcoming his poor injury history, is the Dockers destroyer ready to take his game up to even stronger scoring levels?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Sean Darcy
Age: 23
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Ruck

2021 Highest Score:
133 Vs Essendon (AFLFantasy)
193 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
133 Vs Essendon | AFLFantasy (2021)
193 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2021)

2021 Average:
93.7 (AFLFantasy)
118 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $642,500
AFLFantasy Price: $786,00
AFLDreamTeam Price: $799,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

If you’ve played any draft format of the game, then you’d be familiar with Sean Darcy and his fantasy prospects. The question was never around if he could score. If you deliver a 114 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 99 in SuperCoach in your second AFL match, you’ve got scoring capacity. Instead, the concern was can his body let him live up to his promise? With just 41 games in the past four seasons, it wasn’t looking strong in 2021.

Thankfully for him, the Dockers and the fantasy footy community, he put together a superb season. He averaged 16.6 possessions, 28 hitouts, four marks and three tackles per game. He ranked sixth across the league for total hitouts, winning more than Scott Lycett, Tom Hickey and Reilly O’Brien. While also finishing eleventh for total contested marks.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, his average of 93.9 has him ranked third among rucks behind Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn. He delivered nine tons across his twenty-one games, three of them over 120 plus an additional four games where he scored between 90 and 99. That’s a good season, but he had an even better one in SuperCoach.

Darcy averaged 118, which in the game is currently the seventh-highest! His year consisted of fourteen tons; nine of these were over 120 and an insane four that was 150+ including a 183 & 193. To go with this high scoring ceiling was four other games where he scored between 90-99, and in only two games, his scoring dipped below 80. Last year, there was a three-round stretch where he put up some unbelievable numbers. Between rounds 16-18, he averaged 177 and the lowest score of 156.

He’s got the second-highest average of all rucks (yep, he’s ahead of Brodie Grundy), and his average is higher than the following players that have already been added to the 50 most relevant. Jarryd Lyons, Rory Laird, Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish, Callum Mills & Cam Guthrie. Over the past few seasons, nobody has got close to touching the top two rucks. But with Darcy, the ability to match, let alone surpass one of Grundy/Gawn, is looking increasingly possible. Perhaps in 2022, he will have a new king in the ruck division? If we do, there’s every chance that Sean makes it happen!

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MY TAKE

The scoring ceiling of Sean Darcy isn’t only comparable to the best rucks in the game, but it’s as good as some of the best premiums in the game. Rarely can a player outside of the midfield line show multiple scores in a season north of 130 in AFLFantasy or 150 in SuperCoach.

Earlier, we discussed the previously poor injury history of Darcy. Still, after playing 21 consecutive games last year, I don’t believe you can have that as the primary reason for opting out of selecting him. He’s now shown the ability to back up week after week, month after month and even plays through some serious in-game knocks. After all, as a physical ruck style, his game style as a heavily contested player will always lend itself to knocks and bumps.

However, if you still have durability concerns, the equation is simple: start Darcy or rule him out entirely. For players with a history of missing multiple games, you need to bank the opportunity to maximise the number of games he plays by starting him. The mathematical variance and likelihood of him missing through injury will only increase based on each game. It’s why if you’re worried about missing games, start him, bank the points and then trade if the injury hits.

By opting to go with Darcy, you choose to forgo Grundy or Gawn. One element that generally would’ve helped is sitting on a differing bye round. However, that’s not the case. Sean’s Dockers are always taking the week off in round 13. So you’ve only got two viable structures this season when it comes to ruckmen. A set & forget pair of premium rucks or a premium ruck at R1 paired with some that offer value at R2. Some might consider a viable starting ruck combo of Jarrod Witts and Braydon Preuss. Still, as potentially feasible as it might be, it’s only in AFLFantasy could I advocate for that.

Using the highest ownership percentage as a guide, Brodie Grundy is viewed across AFLFantasy and SuperCoach as the #1 ruck to start with. Let’s hold that as a premise and suggest he will be one of the best two premium rucks. I think Grundy is the safest premium ruckmen in 2022. So I’m very comfortable with this assumption. Before you can consider Darcy, you need to have a narrative about what you believe will happen this season with Max Gawn, who was the top ruck across all formats last year.

‘In 2021, Max averaged 120 in SuperCoach and 108 in AFLFantasy. The regular storey I hear in the preseason I hear surrounding Gawn is that he’ll regress on the back of Luke Jackson picking up more centre bounce moments as he continues his strong progression. While that might be the case, I am baffled to see some suggestions that means Gawn falls so far back to the pack that he’s not a supreme option. Even if that does happen, he is still a dominant presence up forward; remember his preliminary final against the Cats? A bumper five-goal performance, a 145 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, and 159 in SuperCoach. ‘But MJ‘, I hear you say, ‘that’s just one game, that’s not enough data to make that assumption.’ Maybe, but many are happy to do the same based on Luke Jackson’s Grand Final.

I can’t advocate for Darcy as an R1 in your starting squads. Others might be able, but I cannot. As good as I think he can be, by selecting him at R1, you’re locked into him being a certainty as a top-two ruckman. I’m not convinced he’ll be better than Grundy, and I’m not sold that any regression of Gawn is sufficient to make Darcy a clear superior pick. This is one of the reasons I’ll be targeting him as an upgrade.

The other core reason is that set & forget rucks is a strategy you can bypass in 2022. This season, Braydon Preuss is an absolute no-brainer pick at R2 if named round one. Picking him enables coaches the salary cap space to invest in other lines. I’m aware of the battle for ruck spots, but for me, Preuss is a clear clubhouse leader. Braydon’s seemingly clear path as value ruck and the other premium rucks I still have more confidence in ahead of Darcy means I cannot start and must target him as an upgrade.

If I had to start him in one format, it’d be SuperCoach; it’s this format he could be a beast. Currently, 28% of coaches own him and all power to them for doing it. I think he’ll be great, but I’m choosing to ‘check’ and see what other cards are dealt my way before going ‘All in’ on Darcy.

DRAFT DECISION

You sit in one of two camps for ruckmen on draft day. Camp one, you value them highly and look to secure one of the premium options as soon as possible. The other, you care little for them and look to ‘punt’ a ruck selection with one of your final on-field picks. Once Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn, it’ll then be time for coaches to consider taking Sean Darcy.

Once Gawn and Grundy are off the board, coaches will draft Sean Darcy. Depending on what format you draft will determine what happens next. In SuperCoach, he looms as the clear#3 ruck option. However, in UltimateFooty, where Rowan Marshall is an RUC/FWD, there’s a genuine conversation for him to be taken ahead of Darcy.

Darcy’s drafting range will float between the middle of the second round into the late third. One thing’s for sure is he won’t be available in the same range of 2020, where his ADP was 223 in UltimateFooty.

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#20 Most Relevant | Clayton Oliver

Read Time:6 Minute, 47 Second

Every season people lament missing out on owning Clayton Oliver. They promise themselves that the next season will be different, and they’ll start with him. Then, the year happens, and they never get to own him, continuing the cycle. Is this the year you break the cycle and get on Clarry?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Clayton Oliver
Age: 24
Club: Melbourne
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score:
155 Vs Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
204 Vs Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
161 Vs Gold Coast | AFLFantasy (2019)
205 Vs Adelaide| SuperCoach (202)

2021 Average:
108.6 (AFLFantasy)
123.4 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $672,000
AFLFantasy Price: $912,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $926,700

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

What another stunning season from Clayton Oliver he dominated in every possible way in 2021! He ranked first for contested possessions by game averages, second for stoppage clearances, sixth for disposals, ninth for score involvements, and tenth for effective disposals. No wonder he delivered such a premium performance in 2021.

Last year Clarry was yet again one of the best premium midfielders in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he was ranked eleventh for total points and his average of 108.3 has him ranked fifteenth in the format. This season consisted of fifteen scores of 100+, eight of these were over 120 which only further dismisses the myth that he’s only SuperCoach relevant. In fact, when he does hit the ton, his average score is 119. And he had one monster against the Crows a 155. To go with this high frequency of tons is a low scoring deviation. He had just five games all season where he didn’t score over 90, and he had just one score beneath 80.

His season was even stronger in SuperCoach, from his twenty-two games he scored seventeen tons, eleven of these were over 120 while a monster five were 140+ including scoring his second score over 200 in twelve months, both against the Adelaide Crows. It’s in this format he certainly excels, and from his seventeen games, he did ton-up his average score was 133, that’s well beyond the levels needed to view him as a safe VC/C in most matchups.

His average of 123.4 is the fourth highest in the game with only Touk Miller, Jack Steele and Jack Macrae higher than him. He’s also ranked third for total points and is just ranked 3rd for total points. Visually his year looked like this across AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and SuperCoach.

Not that it matters, but in the AFL finals series, he scored 102, 108 & 138 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, while in SuperCoach, he belted out a 165. 129 and 139. These 2021 scores and stats echo what he did in 2020 when he elevated his game to the next tier.

By the end of the 2020 season, he ranked first in the AFL for clearances, stoppage clearances and contested possessions per game. Added to this, he ranked 5th per game for centre clearances, 9th for disposals and effective disposals per game.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he ended the year with an average of 91.7 or an adjusted average of 114. His season consisted of 5 tons; 2 of them were over 120, plus an additional eight scores between 80-99. Last year, he had just one score under 74 all year. ‘Clarry’ ranked 2nd for total points and was just 107 points of overall leader Lachie Neale. He also ranked 6th for averages.

For SuperCoach, he averaged a career high122 from his 17 games. It consisted of 15 tons, eight over 120 and an insane two over 170, including 205 against the Crows. He ranked 3rd for total points, 4th for averages with Only Lachie Neale and Jack Steele of midfielder with a stronger average.

Over the past five seasons, he has 100% durability and incredible conversion of games to hundreds. He’s one of the most dependable and durable premiums in the game and is a must consider for everyone.

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MY TAKE

What is the perfect combination of traits you want from your premium players? Availability, high scoring ceiling, healthy scoring basement, minimal scoring deviation, and someone you can throw the captaincy on. Over the previous five seasons, Clayton Oliver has shown that he is a tick in every one of those considerations.

As a premium midfielder, you’re not paying for value at his price point. Instead, the reason you choose him over others is that you believe that what he delivered last year will be near identical in this upcoming season. What’s most exciting for potential owners is that Clayton Oliver developed a ceiling in the previous two seasons. He’s always been consistently hitting the triple-figure marker, but he found a new level of ceiling last two seasons. Previously was just a low variable 100-115 performer; he’s now regularly scoring captaincy considerations scores. His improvement came as he impacted the goals more, while the conversion of kicks to handball was more favourable.

Across all game formats, I have Clayton Oliver locked in as a top 10 midfielder. The concern about him has always been his ability to handle a tag. For example, Matt De Boer was doing an absolute number on him in round three. Had De Boer not gone down injured, there’s a case to be made that Clarry would’ve struggled to hit a score of 50. It’s certainly a question to raise, but I think Oliver is no longer the primary tag target in the Demons midfield. Instead, Christian Petracca is the game-changer; it’s him that will more often be the difference-maker in a game, not Oliver.

That’s no shade on Clayton, instead highlighting just how destructive CP5 can be. It certainly doesn’t mean Oliver will never get a tag; each opposing team may have different views to the next. However, to me, it’s pretty evident. With Clayton, it’s his destructive ball-winning ability over a game that will cut you up. But with Petracca, it could be five minutes of brilliance from him, and the game is over.

He needs to be right in contention to start across formats – and if you’re not starting, you’ll probably miss on him. The reason being is because he has elite scoring consistency, which means he’ll rarely drop off much. So when you do decide to look for an avenue to bring him in, you’re always paying ‘up’ to get him. Rarely that’s an approach that I advocate for. Buy low, sell high is the cornerstone principle of salary cap games.

For those needing one last nudge to pick him, his 2022 season starts against the Bulldogs. He played them three times last year, including the Grand Final, with 115, 126 & 138 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. And 139, 144, 139 in SuperCoach. I’ve got Clarry locked into my SuperCoach side, and he won’t be leaving!

DRAFT DECISION

Clayton Oliver is the perfect M1 on your draft side, regardless of the format you play. Having not missed a game in five seasons, that availability is of critical value. I could see him going in the first round in SuperCoach style leagues. More commonly, I see him as a second-round selection in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam scoring leagues.

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#21 Most Relevant | Elijah Hollands

Read Time:6 Minute, 10 Second

It’s rare that players yet to make an AFL debut make the 50 Most Relevant. But in the case of Elijah Hollands, he looms as one of the most important cash cows in 2022.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Elijah Hollands
Age:
Club: Gold Coast Suns
Position: MID/FWD

SuperCoach Price: $123,900
AFLFantasy Price: $190,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $182,800

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

The very nature that a player is a certain best 22 for a club and priced at the basement is cause enough to make a player relevant. At this price point, there are no risks; there are no concerns. If he has job security, then you’ll pick him. But Elijah Hollands isn’t just your ordinary player; he’s a game-changing MID/FWD, which is one of the complete players to come through the AFL draft in years.

Elijah has a penetrating kick, is clean with clearance work at stoppages and can take a strong overhead grab and impact the game with a reliable kick at goal inside 50. He also works hard defensively with his elite pressure and strong ability to tackle that stick. To have this combination of skills is rare to get at these elite levels, but Hollands is a special player.

At the start of 2020 under 18 seasons, he was viewed as a #1 pick candidate before suffering an ACL injury in the preseason. Just weeks later, the season was aborted due to the COVID impacted 2020 junior season in Victoria.

In his bottom age, year at the NAB League played four times for the Murray Bushrangers. Playing primarily as a forward, he averaged eleven kicks, six handbells, six marks, four tackles and a goal per game. That translated to an average of 92 SuperCoach and 84 AFLFantasy points per game. It’s a small sample size, but it’s a strong indicator of his abilities. Don’t forget; it’s rare for players to dominate the under 18 levels as a bottom ager, so to deliver this level of output as one it’s extremely promising what he achieved.

After getting selected by the Gold Coast Suns at pick seven, the club took a conservative approach with building Elijah up. Rather than rushing him back for games, they gave him the majority of the season to get himself used to the pace of training in an elite AFL environment. As a result, he ended up playing a handful of games in the VFL last year on some heavily managed minutes. However, in his final VFL game of 2021, he had 27 disposals, 11 contested possessions, five clearances, four tackles, three makes and scored 112 SuperCoach and 96 AFL Fantasy points.

As a result of the patient approach, the Suns now have a fully fit, strong and firing new addition to their club. Barring any unforeseen injuries impacting his preseason, he’s a certainty to be named in round one and, as a result, be locked away as one of the most owned players in fantasy footy this season.

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MY TAKE

Over the past few seasons, fantasy coaches have been blessed with some phenomenal debut seasons. From Sam Walsh, Matt Rowell even Errol Gulden have arguably over-delivered. But when it comes to Elijah Hollands as safe and secure a cash cow as he is, I don’t forecast the same scoring destiny of this trio.

Tempering expectations and fantasy football coaches in the Venn diagram of life are not often overlapping. But in the case of Elijah Hollands, I believe it’s something coaches will be forced to exercise. This has very little to do with him recovering from his ACL at all. As stated above, he’s done his full recovery, and he’s now 2/3 of the way through his first full preseason.

The reason expectations will need to be monitored due to the role he’ll be playing early on in his career for Gold Coast. I’m forecasting a heavy inside forward 50 roles for Hollands. It’s here that in his early days as a footballer, his match-winning abilities van have a significant impact on the Suns winning games of footy. Last year the Suns ran a tight centre bounce team. Beyond the mainstay of Touk Miller, it was Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson, Brayden Fiorini and David Swallow eating up the rest. However, if anyone was to crack that tight five, it should be Sam Flanders. Flanders displayed powerful contested ball-winning as a junior and is uber clean with his hands under pressure. He’s also got the same explosive power of a young Christian Petracca that had many contrasting the two from junior levels.

As a forward, Elijah would sit beautifully at the feet of Ben King. In addition to his clean hands at the ground level, his ability to take a strong contested mark and be a reliable shot at goal makes him the perfect player to increase the Sun’s scoreboard impact. Eventually, he will play more midfield minutes and be the ideal piece to sit alongside Rowell & Anderson long term at CBA’s. But for now, expect a heavy forward role.

What do you need from your cash cows? Weekly availability! Arguably more than anything else. The scoring ability is necessary and super important, but it doesn’t matter if they’re not playing. You need regular games to keep that breakeven moving and generating dollars. With Hollands, you’ve got job security, MID/FWD DPP flexibility, and you’ve got junior scoring pedigree. Those things alone make him a certainty in your starting squad and someone that, if needed, I’d feel very safe playing on the field. So even if not getting any midfield time, I still see him getting enough points to be one of the cash cows of 2022! So lock him in and throw away the key.

DRAFT DECISION

Traditionally, players who are yet to play any AFL are rarely selected in seasonal-focused drafts. I don’t see that thought process deviating drastically as good as I think Elijah Hollands will be. With that being said, depending on the size of your league, I can still see plenty picking him up late in the hope of a scoring boom. It will be in keeper leagues that Elijah holds the most equity, and he’s certainly someone I’d have high on my radar. He showed he was a star and a fantasy performer at every junior pathway level. I see little reason why that doesn’t ring true in the AFL in a few years.

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#22 Most Relevant | James Sicily

Read Time:6 Minute, 25 Second

Before succumbing to a season-ending ACL, James Sicily was on track for delivering coaches a third consecutive premium season. After a tasty discount, is Sicily the prime value pick in your starting squad?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: James Sicily
Age: 27
Club: Hawthorn Hawks
Position: Defender

Career Highest Score:
135 Vs Essendon | AFLFantasy (2018)
163 Vs Sydney | SuperCoach (2020)

SuperCoach Price: $448,100
AFLFantasy Price: $510,00
AFLDreamTeam Price: $473,700

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Not much went the way of the Hawks in 2021. Arguably it all started to go pear-shaped late in 2020 when James Sicily went down with an ACL injury that didn’t just end his 2020 season but ultimately saw him absent from all of 2021. Whenever a player misses large chunks of time, we can quickly forget certain players’ abilities. When it comes to Sicily, he is elite in so many areas. He possesses the rare ability to control the game from behind the ball with his elite marking, and his decision making by foot makes him a valuable asset for the Hawks. He’s elite in for kicks, contested marks, uncontested marks and rebound 50’s.

For the better part of three seasons, James had been a premium defender for coaches across all game formats. In 2018 he averaged 95.5 in AFLFantasy, scoring five tons, including his personal best 135. While in SuperCoach, he scored nine tons, four over 120 and averaged 105. During the 2019 season, he played every game, averaged 84 in AFLFantasy and had seven scores of 100 or more. Again, for SuperCoach, he averaged 95 and scored nine tons.

While before injury in 2020, he was averaging 103 in SuperCoach from his eleven games, he scored five tons, four of them over 120 and two were 140+. He had an additional three scores between 80-99. Over in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 69.4 (adjusted 83); it featured one pure ton and 88 a 95 plus two additional scores over 70.

In short, we’ve got multiple seasons of data than before the injury; he’s a consistent 85-95 scoring defender in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 95-105 in SuperCoach. The positive for prospective owners is he’s priced nowhere near that range. DreamTeam is at an average range of the mid-’50s, which means coaches could have a value pick with up to 40 points per game instilled. In AFLFantasy, his price point is with players averaging in the mid-’60’s, providing 30 points per game of value based on his career-high averages. While finally in SuperCoach, he’s priced in the low 80’s and providing coaches 20 points per game based on what he was delivering in 2020.

James Sicily is a proven premium defender across all formats and has tremendous value based on his proven scoring abilities. But the final sweetener in the deal for him is the Hawthorn bye round. The Hawks are one of the six-team rested in round fourteen. This is the perfect round for a stepping stone. Here coaches get optimal onfield scoring weeks and the full view of the top premiums to pursue for the final few months of the season. Sicily, if he’s scoring well but not enough to be a premium, he could be moved at his bye to Jake Lloyd, Caleb Daniel or Tom Stewart coming off the rest.

Coming back to the knee injury in October last year, Sicily had already entirely recovered from his ACL rehabilitation. This means he’s already been able to complete everything asked of him in the preseason. So Sicily isn’t striving to be fit by round one; instead, he’s banging the door down and is ready to go.

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MY TAKE

If you cast your mind back to Jarrod Witts, who was added earlier in the 50 most relevant, you’ll recall one essential thing. Players returning from ACL’s almost without exception all return with some scoring regression. It happens repeatedly; players take time to get back to their best coming off serious injuries. And sometimes, they never can recapture their previous bests.

Thankfully, James Sicily doesn’t have to deliver the 95-105 range season. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s a genuine stepping stone. That means, for the coaches needing this structured style of player, he could be the perfect balanced approach of cash generation and scores on the field. The stakes are a little higher in SuperCoach. You need to be confident he can go 90 minimum to start with.

With DPP’s coming into the games of SuperCoach & DreamTeam, it means our defensive (and forward) premiums must withstand the potential variance of higher scoring options entering into the line midseason. You can only start premiums you are convinced are top 3-4 in these lines. Otherwise, it’s value options and rookies to fill the on-field positions. A player like Sicily who can score like a premium for a few weeks might be the perfect stopgap. Don’t forget the Hawks have the final bye round.

Outside of the forecast scoring regression of players coming off ACLs, the other cause for uncertainty is the Hawke backline structure. If you presume health, they’ve got a mountain of players that can rotate in the back six, and all be viable options to clip away at his points. Both Will Day and Jack Scrimshaw have been long seen as the reincarnation of the famous Hawk dynasty ball users. Jarman Impey and Lachie Bramble found new homes in the backline and offered speed and defensive work rates. Blake Hardwick is the lockdown man but does take a majority share of kick-in duties. While Changkuoth Jiath could be anything.

Sicily is the backline leader, and as good as the development of that young core is, he’s still the supreme user and interceptor of the bunch. So while someone might see a score drip, I’m confident it won’t be James.

He needs to be on your watchlist; it’s too early in the preseason to either lock him in or ignore him. But, as always, stepping stones in certain lines are either required or redundant based on the availability of cash cows. So, for now, wait and see on James Sicily.

DRAFT DECISION

There’s always a wide variety of coaching strategies in every draft league. Some will only draft off names they know, others only off historical data, and some love to chase the breakouts. I use one strategy when considering looking for players at positions like D3/D4 for players with scoring upside. And James Sicily ticks that box. My ideal time to land him is D4, but I think he’ll be snapped up as a D3.

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#23 Most Relevant | Zach Merrett

Read Time:7 Minute, 34 Second

Since 2016 Zach Merrett has been a durable and reliable premium across all game formats. After delivering his career-high scores last season, coaches should have some optimism that the 110+ averages should continue for more years to come.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Zach Merrett
Age: 26
Club: Essendon
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score:
153 Vs Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
168 Vs Sydney (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
153 Vs Melbourne| AFLFantasy (2021)
168 Vs Sydney| SuperCoach (2021)

2021 Average:
110.3 (AFLFantasy)
114.9 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $625,700
AFLFantasy Price: $925,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $940,700

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Ever since the Essendon drug scandal of 2016, Zach Merrett has been one of the most dependable fantasy midfield premiums going around. What makes Merrett so damaging as a footballer, not just a fantasy prospect, is that he’s one of the hardest-working players in the league. Zach uses his workrate to get into space and create an option for his teammates in traffic. And when he gets the ball, he rarely wastes it.

Merrett ranks elite in multiple categories in the AFL. He’s top ten in the league for uncontested possessions per game, effective disposals, inside ’50s and disposals. Additionally, he’s ranked sixteenth for score involvements, further proof that when the ball is in his hands, it regularly turns into a good moment for the Bombers.

From twenty games last year, he delivered seventeen AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons, seven of them were above 120, and three times he scored 140 or higher. That includes scoring his career-high 153 against the eventual premiers Melbourne. To go with this high ceiling is one of the safest top-end basement scores. Only in two games last year did he dip his scores below 80. By the close of 2021, he ranked ninth for total points, while his average of 110.3 leaves him also ranked ninth.

Over in SuperCoach, he also scored seventeen tons; eight of these were above 120, six over 130 and one was his career-high 168. In addition, in only two games did he drop his scores under 90. His average of 114.9 is ranked fourteenth, and he’s twelfth for points.

From his 16 games during 2020 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored 7 tons, 3 of them over 120, including a 138 against the Crows. Remember, that’s with shorter quarters. He also had an additional three scores of 80+. He ended the year averaging 92 (or adjusted 115). He ranked 8th for total points concerning all other players, not bad for a guy who missed a game through suspension. Amongst midfielders, he ranked 4th by averages, but honestly, that stat line is misleading. One of those players is Luke Dunstan, who played one game. Another is Lachie Hunter, who played half the season. In reality, Lachie Neale was the only midfielder to average more than him.

2020 was a career-best average for Zach Merrett; he ended the year averaging 115. It consisted of 11 tons, 7 of which were over 120 and all year, his scoring dipped beneath 87 in the other two matches. He ranked 16th for total points and ended the year with the 7th highest average among all midfielders. Looking deeper at the season in greater analysis, you can see that as the season got better, so too did his scoring. In the opening eight matches, he averaged 87.5 (109) in AFLFantasy and 106.6 for SuperCoach. However, in the final eight games for AFLFantasy, he averaged 101.1 (126 adjusted average) and a monster 124.5 for SuperCoach. That’s a differential of 17 (adjusted) points per game in AFLFantasy and 18 in SuperCoach.

You can go back even further if you want, but the scoring trend is much the same. He’s one of the most reliable 110+ players across all game formats. Furthermore, to this scoring consistency, he’s missed just two matches over the past six seasons. However, these are not injury impacted games. Instead, both are suspensions. So, in reality, he’s much more like Jack Crisp, who has a near-faultless availability and durability.

Before selecting them, what are the key things you want to mark off the premium midfielder checklist?

Consistent High Scoring
Ceiling
Low Basement
Durability

Merrett has them all in spades and has done it over multiple seasons. So it won’t shock anyone; in fact, it’s expected that he backs up scoring like this yet again.

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MY TAKE

What makes Zach Merrett such a good fantasy performer? Simple, his diverse range of scoring avenues. He can win the ball on the inside and use his elite endurance to get into space outside. Equally, he applies strong defensive pressure without the ball.

Previously one of the great criticisms of his fantasy game had been how he’d be suspect to opposing teams tags. When over the past few seasons he got tagged his scoring flatlined. He’d certainly got better over time and worked through it, but I’m not convinced that this is the key tripping point for prospective Merrett owners. One of the biggest concerns is around the emergence of his teammates.

This was something that I touched only briefly in the Darcy Parish article and the podcast episode. The Essendon midfield is finally starting to take shape, and while Zac is clearly a formidable piece to the side’s success, he’s arguably one of the most versatile pieces. Last year he attended 80% of CBA’s, more than any other Essendon midfielder. With Jye Caldwell and Andrew McGrath back to full health, the bombers do have the option of one of the wider midfield rotations options available to them. Will that hurt Merrett’s scoring? Possibly. But what Zac has shown over the past few seasons is that he can score whether the bombers have the ball, or don’t. Whether he’s in space, or it’s tight at the contest.

At his price point, you’re starting him not just because you believe he’s set to be a topline premium midfielder, but because you also believe he’s a captaincy candidate most weeks. I think in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam there’s enough data to suggest that’s more than justified. But if you look at the trend, he’s much more regularly in the 100-115 range, than the 125+. While in SuperCoach, as good as he is, he doesn’t give me enough captaincy territory scores. A 120-125 score in SuperCoach isn’t a safe captaincy score. In reality, you need a 130 to put it beyond doubt. He gave coaches arguably six safe scores in this market.

I play all formats of fantasy footy and one of my favourites is the keeper league formats. In multiple keepers, I own Zac Merrett and have enjoyed him for years. So what I say next I deeply don’t want to admit. But call it an old fashioned gut instinct, bad pizza or whatever you want. I just don’t see the 115 in Zach this year, not if the health of the Bombers midfield is there. That ceiling I just see falling away marginally, meaning instead of being Mr 115, I think he regresses marginally to 110. Not much, not a big issue, but enough to cool me on starting him in my teams for 2022.

He could prove me wrong and fly out the gate with eight consecutive tons to start the year, just like he did in 2021? But even if he does repeat the same start, that’s still only an average of 112-113 across the formats. I’m happy to take him on to start and target him as an upgrade during the season.

DRAFT DECISION

Every format requires a different tiering of players and a different strategy. If drafting in AFLFantasy scoring format, Zach Merrett is a genuine M1 and will likely be gone in either the late first or second rounds. For me, it’s round two.

Those who draft in SuperCoach I have him pencilled in as an M2 and will be likely leaving draft boards somewhere between round 3-6. Why such a large range? Simple, it all depends on how heavy coaches go to secure top tier forwards and backs early.

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#24 Most Relevant | Zak Butters

Read Time:6 Minute, 46 Second

Over the past two seasons, Zak Butters has made the All Australian squad of 40 and has delivered a scattering of premium scores. Can he put it all together and be one of the best premium forwards in the game?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Zak Butters
Age: 21
Club: Port Adelaide
Position: Forward

2021 Highest Score:
119 Vs Essendon (AFLFantasy)
163 Vs Essendon (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
119 Vs Essendon | AFLFantasy (2021)
163 Vs Essendon| SuperCoach (2021)

2021 Average:
76.2 (AFLFantasy)
81.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $443,600
AFLFantasy Price: $639,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $649,700

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Just a few short seasons ago it was seen by some in the AFL media to suggest anyone other than Connor Rozee was the clear top player picked up in that draft. Now, there’s a case to be made that he’s not even the best player that Port Adelaide drafted that year. That’s no knock on Connor, rather, it highlights the supreme development that’s come from Zak Butters over the past two years.

In 2020 he made the All Australian squad of forty after playing just 34 home and away games of footy. Butters is crafty, clever and a damaging footballer by hand and foot. He’s already been contrasted to teammate Robbie Gray, and if he becomes anything like Robbie then he’ll be a premium fantasy option for many seasons to come.

2021 was a frustrating season for Zak, playing just ten games all year, but in reality two of those were vest affected. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 76, score one ton and four additional scores 80 or higher. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 82, hit triple digits in one game and had four additional scores of 90+. It’s his round two matchup against Essendon that has coaches most excited. He had 36 possessions, 6 tackles, 3 marks, 1 goal, & personal best fantasy scores, a119 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 163 in SuperCoach.

What made the season frustrating is he suffered a serious knee injury in round four against the Tigers. In that game, he played just 57% game time but was on track for another monster with scores in the 80’s across the formats. Between rounds 1-4 he averaged 84 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 103 in SuperCoach. Those averages if delivered over the season would place him clearly as a top ten forward based on current ranks. It’s not just one four-game stretch. Between rounds 20-22 he scored 88, 90 & 91 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, while for SuperCoachhe pumped out a 94, 76 & 96. Throw in the fact he has two vest affected games and he’s clearly value on starting price, let alone what might happen if he can improve his scoring output.

These scoring glimpses were evident the year prior. In 2020 he averaged 87 in SuperCoach, it consisted of six tons, five of them were over 110 and four additional scores 80 or more. While in AFLFantasy/DrewamTeam he averaged 62.3 in the short games (adjusted 77) and scored one ton (114 pure 142 adjusted) and two additional games 80+.

Entering into his fourth season the stars seem to be aligning for Butters to become a genuine star in the AFL and a premium for fantasy coaches in our forward lines.

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MY TAKE

Over the preseason Zak has been bullish about his intention to spend even greater amounts of time through the midfield. Last year he was a staple of the centre bounce rotation averaging between 20%-40%. When in the midfield he offers a fresh dynamic that players like Ollie Wines, Travis Boak and Willem Drew are unable to deliver.

In the preliminary final loss last year a lot was made over the lack of depth and options available through the Power midfield. And based on that game, it was a fair analysis. However, the club didn’t t didn’t go to the draft or trade period to ‘top up’ with midfielders. That means internally they believe they have the cattle already on the list to add further depth and fresh dynamics to the midfield.

The Port Adelaide forward line no longer requires Butters to play a heavy forward role like it did in 2020. The acquisition of Orazio Fantasia plus the refocus of roles of Robbie Gray and Steven Motlop allows the pear to let Zak ply his trade more in the midfield. I’m not advocating for a release into a full-time midfield move. That’d be robbing Peter to pay Paul. Instead, a split of 60/40 would see the full spectrum of his skillset be maximised.

Even without seeing much improvement in his ceiling, Zak could get better by just elevating his coring basement. If those ’40s-’50s scores that are littered across the past two years became ’60-’70s he’d have done enough to be in consideration as a topline forward option. That increase should come both with an increase in midfield minutes but also natural progression as he enters into the fourth season.

There’s a lot to like about Butters, but for me, I’ve still got some hesitancy to start with him especially in SuperCoach and DreamTeam. Not because I don’t think he can hit an average north of 90, but rather in these formats, we’ve had some significant changes (check them out here) that have hit the game. One of the most notable is the addition of in-season DPP’s much like AFLFantasy coaches have been used to. No longer are the forwards ‘locked for the season.’ But now for rounds six, twelve and eighteen we could have new big premiums added to this line. For example, last season Josh Kelly picked up forward status heading into round six last year. He pretty much averaged 110 in this format for the remainder of the year and became a must-have forward in order to have success.

With DPP’s coming into the game, it means our forward (and defensive) premiums must withstand the potential variance of higher scoring options entering into the line midseason. So my hesitancy about Butters as a starter isn’t about him at all. Rather, it’s about whether or not the scoring bar has been elevated for starting forwards that we now require a minimum average of 100.

In AFLFantasy he’s still a viable starter given you can still look to make $50-$100k off him and flip him into a fallen premium. While DreamTeam & SuperCoach will have 35 trades, I couldn’t advocate for that strategy of game style. I’m certain that covid protocols will hit your team midseason and you’ll need these extra trades.

He’s going to be good this year, arguably every good. But will it be good enough? If you are confident he will push scores closer to 100 regularly and average 95-105 then you’ve got your answer about whether or not he should start for you.

DRAFT DECISION

Much has been made about the forward stocks of 2022. With all formats now offering in seasons, DPP gains the bar of what is a strong Forward may have moved. Some will reach for an F2 spot because they see the upside. Others will react and wait for more F3. I’m of the opinion you can draft him at F2 with confidence.

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#25 Most Relevant | Elliot Yeo

Read Time:7 Minute, 4 Second

Elliot Yeo has been a dependable and consistent premium for multiple years. However, an injury derailed his past two seasons. Can he bounce back for us in 2022?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Elliot Yeo
Age: 28
Club: West Coast Eagles
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score:
118 Vs Sydney (AFLFantasy)
117 Vs Melbourne (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
152 Vs Fremantle | AFLFantasy (2017)
150 Vs Gold Coast | SuperCoach (2018)

2021 Average:
83 (AFLFantasy)
86.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $470,800
AFLFantasy Price: $696,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $707,700

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Whenever you don’t see someone play to their potential, sometimes it can be easy to forget what they are like when fully fit and uninhibited. Elliot Yeo is a powerfully built midfielder who, at a stoppage, is the perfect midfielder. He’s offensively a beast at getting the clearance, he’s defensively a menace, and his workrate is elite. In addition, Yeo is athletically gifted an excellent overhead mark and has shown incredible resilience over the past two seasons as he’s battled through multiple seasons hampered with groin injuries.

Of the twelve games we saw from him last season, he averaged 89 in AFLFantasty/DreamTeam. It consisted of three tons and four additional scores of 80+. The scoring trend is similar in SuperCoach he averaged 86.5, delivering five tons and two more scores over 90. Amazing scores? No! But remember, he did this under immense physical duress where his ability to generate power through his body was near impossible. So if he can score like this with limitations, what can he do when finally fit and free?

Every game he did play in 2020, Elliot was under increasing physical duress as he tried valiantly to play. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 71.5 (adjusted 89), scored 1 ton and had six additional scores between 67-80. If you want to play the ‘adjusted averages scores’, that’s a scoring range between 83 and 100. SuperCoach was a more favourable result. He scored a ton in 5 of his ten matches, had just two scores below 70 and ended the season with an average of 89.9.

As the year went on, it was obvious that his ongoing groin issue impacted his ability to get around the ground. The Eagles tried to rest him up for finals, but eventually, they couldn’t get him back and took a long term approach in the hope to get him right for 2021 and beyond.

Between 2017-2019 we saw Yeo at full flight and saw his scoring pedigree on fully display. He missed just two games in these three seasons and averaged 98.3, 106.7and 102.7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 102.1, 107.8 and 107.6. In these seasons, he scored in every column imaginable and was one of the most underrated fantasy premiums going around. Yes, it’s multiple years since he’s delivered scores like this, but the ability to score like this is proven, not a forecast hope like others around his price point.

We’ve been robbed over the past few seasons of seeing Yeo at full flight. So while he’s yet to resume full training, the month of January is about being open to the possibilities and viewing the possible scenario outcomes. There’s a very real world where Yeo can and does return to his full scoring power in 2022, and if he does, he’ll supply coaches with some of the best value.

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MY TAKE

The question has never been can Elliot Yeo produce fantasy scores? 2017-2019 scoring history demonstrates his ability. Instead, the uncertainty comes around can he get through the preseason and 2022 home and away season without a hiccup? Yeo has talked about how the challenges of the past two seasons have made him mentally stronger. That’s positive to hear, but the challenge is he’s still on limited duties. He is still returning from his groin injury and has yet to participate in the full running drills. With the community series just weeks away, that starts to become concerning if he’s not playing in these games; you need to rule him out as a starting squad candidate.

That doesn’t make him irrelevant for the year, not at all. While Yeo is closer to being a 100-105 midfielder than 110+, his past few years shows us that he’s capable of going on 6-8 week stretches where he averages north of 115. As an in-season trade, you’ll get a high volume return on a low financial investment if you can time the run correctly. If he gets through the preseason and has a hot start, he’ll give you a substantial value return. The only reason you’d not consider him as an in-season trade is if you disregarded him because of the durability.

At his price point, he’s in a similar range to Caleb Serong, Patrick Cripps and teammate Tim Kelly. As discussed with these other players, at his price in DreamTeam and SuperCoach, he’s priced too high to be considered a stepping stone. But that’s what a Matt Rowell is. At his price point in the early ’80s, he must become a premium for you and be someone you intend to retain for the entire season. To do this, he needs to average a minimum increase of 20 points per game of growth to warrant it. Can he do that? History says yes, but the durability concerns are there. If you were to contrast him to Serong, both have question marks. Yeo isn’t around scoring potential; that’s proven. But can we get sufficient games from him?

His bye round in 13 is a solid space to be in. Especially in AFLFantasy, where you get multiple trades a week, he could easily be traded to a round 12 premium coming off the bye. Turning Yeo into Jack Steele, Josh Kelly, Ollie Wines, Sam Walsh, Darcy Parish, or even Zach Merrett has an excellent play to it.

I currently have Yeo on my preseason watchlist. If he can have a faultless rest of the preseason, play in the community series and move freely, then he’s got 15-20 points of value in him. And he’s good enough to be an M8 by seasons end. If not, then he’ll be on the watchlist as a trade target for midseason.

DRAFT DECISION

Where Elliot Yeo goes on your draft day will be determined by two things. One when you host it in contrast to the season starting. And secondly, how Yeo is travelling. I believe this season that if you don’t land some quality forwards in the draft early, you could be in trouble. Given the lack of topline depth in this line this year, we might prioritize them more than usual.

Because of this, a player of Yeo’s scoring potential, regardless of injury concerns, will slide later than he has for the past few seasons. So if you want to own him, you’ll probably have to use an M3 position on him. However, that’s a worst-case scenario regarding how early he goes. What’s more likely is he’s an M4 off the board, maybe even five if people have low confidence in his body.

I’d love to take him at M4 and then support this pick by drafting an extra midfield bench depth spot if he struggles early on.

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#26 Most Relevant | Jordan Ridley

Read Time:6 Minute, 12 Second

In the past two seasons, Jordan Ridley has emerged as one of the best defensive premiums available. Now, there’s a world where he could improve his scoring even more.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jordan Ridley
Age: 23
Club: Essendon Bombers
Position: Defender

2021 Highest Score:
124 Vs St Kilda (AFLFantasy)
147 Vs St Kilda (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
124 Vs St Kilda | AFLFantasy (2021)
147 Vs St Kilda | SuperCoach (2021)

2021 Average:
80 (AFLFantasy)
98.7 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $537,100
AFLFantasy Price: $671,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $682,500

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It’s incredible to me to think about the evolution of Jordan Ridley as a footballer. He was fighting for a spot in the Essendon backline just two years ago. Now he’s won a best & fairest and is arguably the most valuable player to the club’s success over the coming seasons. At 23, Jordan has a rare skill combination where he’s elite by foot with the ball in his hands, and he’s one of the best readers of the play and, as a result, is one of the intercept kings of the league.

Last season from his 22 games, he ranked seventh in the league for effective disposals and tenth for rebound ’50s per game. At the same time, he was ranked top twenty for total intercepts and one per enters.

From an AFLFantasy & DreamTeam perspective, he scored four tons, three additional scores between 90-99 and averaged 80. At first, glance that might not be enough for you to consider him. But you need to look beyond just that overarching data sometimes. For example, that 80 included a concussion that affected 15 against the Lions. But in the four games prior, he scored 90, 109, 124 & 110. Not a bad start to the season, right?

It was even stronger in SuperCoach when he opened the year with 125, 136, 147 & 124. In totality, he had twelve tons last year, five over 120 and six additional scores 80+. His average of 98.6 has him ranked tenth among defenders, which isn’t bad given his average would be 102 if we removed that concussion game I alluded to earlier.

Across the formats, these are in isolation solid seasons, but it’s when you place them alongside his 2020 year that you see two things. One, confirmation that his scoring capabilities go beyond just last year. Two that he’s priced with a slice of value attached to him. Something that coaches are constantly on the hunt for.

His 2020 SuperCoach season saw a total increase of 35 points per game from his 2019 average. During the 2020 season, he averaged 101, had ten scores over 100, four over 120 and dipped below 70 in just one game. He ended the season ranked fifth for total points and seventh by the average for all defenders.

For DreamTeam/AFLFantasy, he averaged 72 (adjusted 89); it included just the one ton and had nine scores of 70+. In the shortened quarter and no weighting, that’s a solid return. In adjusted scoring terms, those ’70s are high 80’s-90’s. He ended the season ranked thirteenth by averages and seventh for total points compared to his fellow defenders.

The scoring trend is strong, the value is present, and the narrative of potential scoring upside due to some tweaks in the side of the bomber is one of the most compelling and clear of the preseason.

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MY TAKE

Sometimes your greatest strength can also be a weakness. For Jordan Ridley, that’s a true statement. For Jordan, one of his key strengths is his versatility to play on small and tall forwards. While also playing lockdown roles and not being the intercepting defender. The result is that if the Venn diagram of lockdown role and small forward comes up, his fantasy football performances drastically fall away. It’s why two core elements need to happen for him to deliver a high fantasy output.

The addition of former Crow Jake Kelly as a free agent could be one of the most significant fantasy footy moves from the offseason. At Adelaide, Kelly was a specialist versatile defender. If the club needed him to play tall defender, medium or even small, he could. Although Jake might lack flair and even elite skills, he more than makes up for competitiveness and workrate. It’s why he developed the nickname ‘Bull’ at West Lakes.

With Kelly now able to play a more versatile defensive-focused role, Essendon is now freed from having to use Ridley in a lockdown role. This frees him up to be the third man up at marking contests. He can now have a greater mindset shift to the attacking option in defence. With his elite aerial marking and kicking combination, he’s the perfect weapon for Essendon. It’s this freedom we need to see him hold for us to have confidence that he can hold, let alone grow his scoring output.

However, it’s not the only element; the other is for him to get the majority share of the kick-in duties. Over the season, we saw a drastic split in how the Bombers would share the kick-in duties. He had the monopoly share for some matches; others would split between Mason Redman and Dyson Heppell. While others, he’d barely get a look in.

Statistically, the results are drastic. While it more speaks to the value of defenders getting kick-in duties in general, it shows the high scoring variance for Ridley about whether he gets none, some or most of the kick-in duties.

He’ll need that freedom role to elevate himself to the 90+ averages of AFLFantasy and 100+ in SuperCoach. To be free to intercept and free to pick up some kick-in duties. He’ll still be a solid pick without it, but given he’s likely a D2 or D3 in people starting squads, that won’t be sufficient return. Nevertheless, he should be on coaches preseason radars, and the bomber structure will ultimately determine if he’s a start, pass or upgrade option.

DRAFT DECISION

The draft range for Jordan Ridley will vary depending on your play format or if you’ve got specific custom scores activated. In SuperCoach, he’ll likely head off the board as D2, which could be anything from the fourth – late fifth rounds. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam scoring, I have him still a D2 in teams, but possibly a round or two later, given the defender stock heights in these formats isn’t as high.

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#27 Most Relevant | Jade Gresham

Read Time:6 Minute, 29 Second

The preseason is the time to look at multiple strategies and possibilities. Jade Gresham might not be for everyone in the preseason, but he could be the perfect squad selection for those needing a stepping stone in the forward line.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jade Gresham
Age: 24
Club: St Kilda
Position: MID/FWD

2021 Highest Score:
107 Vs Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
104 Vs Melbourne (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
107 Vs Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2021)
131 Vs Gold Coast | SuperCoach (2018)

2021 Average:
73 (AFLFantasy)
68.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $299,000
AFLFantasy Price: $509,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $498,000

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For some, the inclusion of Jade Gresham in this list might be a little surprising. However, the scoring trends of this young Saint are heading in the right direction. Across his junior career, ‘Gresh’ was a damaging midfield-forward who used his clean hands and breakaway speed from stoppage to significant effect. This ability to be damaging burst player inside the midfield stoppage and provide XFactor inside the Saints forward line was precisely why the club used pick #18 back in the 2015 draft.

So far in Gresham’s career AFL level, he’s predominately stationed in the forward 50 playing a typical small-forward based on hitting the scoreboard and applying pressure. However, in 2019 we saw the first glimpses of him given more time on the ball. He relished the opportunity to take his disposal numbers from 17 to 22. This role was even more pronounced when Brett Ratten took over as St Kilda coach. In the three games Gresham played under Ratten to finish the year, his disposal average increased to 25.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, that season, he averaged 83. It included two tons and six additional scores 90-99. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 84, which consisted of six tons and a further five between 85-99.

He has missed most of Ratten’s reign; he has played just 14 games in the past two seasons due to a stress fracture in his back, then the ruptured Achilles in round three last year. However, in the two full games before the injury, Gresh was on fire, and it’s one of the primary reasons coaches have some expectations of high-value returns at his price point.

He had a 28 disposal game against the Giants in round one last year. It featured seven inside ’50s, five marks, five score involvements, five clearances, three tackles and scored 95 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 82 in SuperCoach. The following week he went even better against the Demons. He had 29 disposals, going at 75% efficiency. He had ten inside 50,s nine clearances, six marks, six score involvements, including a goal. In SuperCoach, these stats resulted in a 104, while in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, it was a career-high 107.

As promising as the start to the season was, the year ended in tears for Jade with an Achilles injury striking early in round three. Sadly, that was the last AFL game for Gresh in 2022. Thankfully, his recovery is on track, and he has been dominating the main training session recently. For those wondering, he’s been training primarily with the midfield group.

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MY TAKE

Jade Gresham has been a much better footballer throughout his career than a fantasy scorer, but that could be about to change. As a junior, he was an elite fantasy prospect. Like his Northern Knights teammate Brayden Fiorini, Gresham was a beast at under 18 levels, where he averaged 122 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 145 SuperCoach splitting his time between the midfield and forward line.

Over the past few offseasons, the Saints have been busy with plenty of trade & free agency additions. Some have been brilliant additions like Dougal Howard, while others such as Brad Crouch boggle the mind about why they pursued them. When I look over the St Kilda midfield, the group feels like a collection of Party Mix lollies. Beyond Jack Steele, who is the obvious star and midfield general, it’s a combination that seems to lack continuity as an outsider. Brad Crouch is a handy player but offers no versatility beyond the midfield. Zak Jones has a good turn of pace but has some durability issues. So too does Dan Hannebery. Hunter Clark should be getting plenty of opportunities, but Ratten seems to use him either on the flanks or the wings. Throw in Jack Bytel, Ryan Byrnes, Seb Ross, Jack Higgins and Brad Hill, and it’s an eclectic bunch. Does Jade Gresham serve the Saints better as a midfielder? Or inside forward 50?

Last season in rounds one and two, the Saints didn’t have either Dan Hannebery or Brad Crouch playing. So was Gresh’s midfield minutes in those two matches causation or correlation? Ultimately, it’s irrelevant in a new season, but for Jade to score well enough to be a player that returns the value, he’ll need to pick up more than just the odd centre bounce attendance.

These salary cap formats are won and lost not at the starting squads but rather in your trades during the season. And for the move to pay off, all it takes is him to have five-six weeks of solid scoring to return value and give coaches a quick scoring and cash injection blitz. Just under twelve months ago, Taylor Walker was a prime example of how form, role and fixture can combine to make the perfect stepping stone.

Sometimes close enough can be good enough. Throughout this series of podcasts, my and other panel members have lamented the depth of the forward options this year. An 80 from Gresham isn’t extraordinary. But six-eight weeks of that is a win. Just two seasons ago, he averaged 84 in SuperCoach and 83 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. So it’s not a stretch to believe he can get there.

For some coaches, they’ll have no need for Jade Gresham in their preseason side. That’s because they’ll be running a structure that doesn’t require a forward in this price range. For some, they’ll be hoping he’s the one to pick over Stephen Coniglio, while others will be taking both. Of all the formats, SuperCoach is the one that holds the most potential value but shouldn’t be discounted as an AFLFantasy or DreamTeam option in the right environment.

DRAFT DECISION

There is a world where some significant preseason hype could hit Jade Gresham and cause coaches to reach for him. However, I think anything at the F3 range or higher might overvalue him too much. While hoping, he slides to F5 might be too optimistic that he’s still available. I’m comfortable targeting him at an F4 range and hoping for the CBA’s to come his way.

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#28 Most Relevant | Andrew Brayshaw

Read Time:5 Minute, 29 Second

The fantasy football pedigree of Andrew Brayshaw is evident as he’s already broken out as a premium midfielder. The question now is can he elevate his abilities to the next tier of uber midfielders?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Andrew Brayshaw
Age: 22
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score:
156 Vs Richmond (AFLFantasy)
190 Vs Richmond (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
156 Vs Richmond| AFLFantasy (2021)
190 Vs Richmond| SuperCoach (2021)

2021 Average:
104.2 (AFLFantasy)
107.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $584,300
AFLFantasy Price: $875,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $888,900

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

There are some players in the AFL that are impossible to dislike. Andrew Brayshaw is undoubtedly one of those. The way he leads within the club, the workrate he shows on the field and then who could forget the famous Christmas Day “Brayshaw family’ sprint sessions. These, plus the way he responded to the infamous ‘Gaff Gate’ incident, makes him very easy to want to wish him every success.

As a footballer, Andy is starting to show that he’s the complete midfield package. In just his fourth AFL season, he ranked seventh for uncontested possessions, eleventh for effective disposals and thirteenth for disposals per game. This combination of stats highlight his high workrate to get into space, and then when he does have the ball in his hands, he’s a reliable and effective distributor.

He scored 13 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons; five of them were above 120 and two higher than 135, including his personal best 156. In addition, he had three more scores between 90-99. That’s 80% of his scores, either 90 or above, last year. From a scoring basement, he had three scores under 70. All of these were when he copped a heavy tag. Closing out the season, he averaged 104.2, higher than Andrew Gaff, Jy Simpkin and Josh Kelly.

For SuperCoach, he scored twelve tons, with a lowest of 109 and that top score of 190. He had seven tons over 120, four additional 90-99 and just three scores beneath 70. His 107 is ranked nineteenth for all midfielders but is higher than Travis Boak, Nat Fyfe, Patrick Dangerfield & Lachie Neale.

This 2021 scoring follows on from his breakout third season of 2020. That year he verged 101 in SuperCoach and scored ten tons, while in AFLFantasy, he averaged 76,4 95 adjusted) and score three tons + five additional scores over. 80. Don’t forget that 80 was a comparable ton to a regular season in the shorter games.

The season was strong but rounds 5-14 gave fantasy coaches what we saw in 2021. During that nine-game stretch, he averaged 118 in SuperCoach and 89.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, or if you like, adjusted averages that a 112. So the scoring power is there and is proven, now is the time for Andy to elevate himself to the next tier of midfield premiums. With some increased consistency, he could quickly push into the top ten midfield premiums this year.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Much has been made in the fantasy footy community about the famed ‘their year breakout.’ And as much as we do have data backing up the claim, it’s the fourth and fifth seasons that players establish themselves as dominant premiums. Andrew Brayshaw is following along right on pace with the likes of Scott Pendlebury.

While the trend is proper and healthy, there is one significant question mark, that’s about he goes handling the tag, last year, he copped three heavy tags, and in everyone, he struggled along. In two of them, he even failed to register a 70. This was the first time in his AFL career that he received this attention. Given his high work ethic, he’ll have spent alot of the preseason working through ways to limit the impact of tags should opposition coaches send them towards him. Remember, players will have good and bad games, But If his basement can become an 80, he’ll become a 110 guy across formats even without increasing his ceiling.

I’m not convinced that the absence of Adam Cerra will have any bearing. In the four games he played without Cerra last season, he averaged 2.2 more points per game in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 4.5 in SuperCoach. With Cerra now at Carlton, I’m intrigued to see just what the dockers midfield rotation looks like. Many believe Nat Fyfe is sure to be heavy in the forward line. I’m not as convinced. For Freo to still push for finals, it’ll still require Fyfe to be a heavy midfield presence. Without him there, the midfield is too shallow.

It’s a question of ‘when’ not ‘if’ Bradshaw become a top tier premium. Coaches jumping on him this preseason are convinced that it’s 2022. And if that’s the case, you’ll need to be comfortable that he’s someone you can out the VC/C on most weeks. Fremantle plays four of the first five rounds as a late Sunday game for those curious. So, in reality, he’ll not be a VC candidate in the first month. After that, it’s captaincy or bust, given that fixture.

I’m confident in him delivering a 110+ season this year, and in several formats for me, he’s right in starting squad considerations.

DRAFT DECISION

Based on his seasonal average from 2021, coaches should land Andrew Bradshaw as an M2. However, there is a world where he could even be an M3 in the right league if you’re drafting a heavy midfield approach and others are locking away other lines.

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