50 Most Relevant Archives - Page 20 of 32

#29 Most Relevant | Tim Taranto

Read Time:5 Minute, 37 Second

Heading into the 2020 season, Tim Taranto was coming off a breakout season. However, a preseason game injury ruined most of his year. 12 months on, can Taranto ‘pick up’ where he left off?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tim Taranto
Age: 22
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
109 Vs Essendon (AFLFantasy)
126 Vs Gold Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
156 Vs North Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2019)
144 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2019)

2020 Average:
75.2 (AFLFantasy) | 94 (Adjusted Average)
84.4 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $453,700
AFLFantasy Price: $718,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $695,000

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

The season could not have had a disastrous start to the season for the Giants. Tim Taranto injured his shoulder within minutes of the club’s first Marsh Series match against Sydney.

Had the season not been delayed by covid we would have rarely seen Taranto play. However, because of it, we got to see him play 11 games across the year. Taranto still clearly wasn’t 100% back to full confidence in his body, and even his role in the final few months of the year indicated that.

Even with it, Tim still delivered some reasonable scores. He averaged 75 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam (adjusted 94) which consisted of 2 tons and 2 additional scores over 90. While in SuperCoach he averaged 84 and posted 3 tons.

At times Taranto was played out of the midfield. At the time GWS gave little explanation for why. It meant we saw such a drastic scoring differential in games scoring. In 3 games during the back half of the year, he had minimal CBA’s, and in these, he had 15 possessions or less.

The benefit for us is that these lower scores and underutilised role have meant we’ve got embedded in further value. If ‘TT’ can get anywhere near his 2019 scoring, he presents one of the season’s best buys.

That year from an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective last year he finished as the fourth-highest total points scorer of the season behind Brodie Grundy, Adam Treloar and Jackson Macrae. Of midfielders, only Jackson Macrae, Adam Treloar and teammate Josh Kelly had a higher seasonal average. From 22 games he had fifteen scores over 100, 7 of these were over 130.

During the finals series, he scored 113, 66, 122 and 117. In addition to his hundreds and high ceiling frequency, he had only five scores below 93 all year, nothing below 75.

In SuperCoach he increased his average by 14 points per game from his 2018 average. Taranto finished as the 22nd best points scorer of the season and an average 102.

He scored a 100 in 59% of matches (13), and four of these were captaincy good numbers of 130 or higher. In the AFL Finals series, he further enhanced his reputation with SuperCoach scores of 124, 68, 109 and a massive 143 on Grand Final day.

For multiple seasons Taranto has proven his scoring pedigree. And if he can return to his career year of 2019, he’s priced 18 points unders in all game formats.

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MY TAKE

Value is the name of the game in 2021, especially if you want to start multiple of last seasons big performers on each line. You can’t start all of the top tier players, while it feels good to have them all you end up with a rookie heavy on field result. It’s why players like Tim Taranto offer proven value, not just prospective.

It’s an important distinction to make. The potential value is based purely on forecasting and projections. Proven is about someone who has been there before.

Why is he cheap? Ultimately, Taranto didn’t get that midfield role as frequently as in previous years. Is that because of injury needing him to be eased into it? Or GWS experimenting with a different midfield mix? Ultimately only those part of the inner sanctum of the Giants will know.

What’s clear is the Giants need to make some changes in 2021. The game style, mindset and personnel used at the end of the season isn’t advancing them back into finals contention.

If GWS do get off to a flying start, then some additional data could seal the selection deal for you. In victories during the last two, he averages considerably better in victories. In 2019 he averaged 21 points per game better in AFLFantasy and 33 in SuperCoach. Last year, he performed 19 points per game better off in victories for AFLFantasy and 16 for SuperCoach.

Taranto finds himself in the positively rare position in that he will never get tagged from the opposition. With Lachie Whitfield, Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly in the side you cannot choose to try and negate his influence on the contest and let those three roam free. Yet another positive for those keen on picking him.

At this stage of his career, he’s shown more favourable scoring in AFLFantasy and SuperCoach. Although he is value in SuperCoach, it’s hard to select him over Patrick Cripps who’s $70,000a DT/AF Player at this stage of his development. He is value in SC, but we have better alot cheaper. eg Cripps $70k less

I’m starting Tim in AFLFantasy, and he’s right in the mix for DreamTeam. For SuperCoach it’s a pass even though he’s a solid value option. I think there are stronger options priced around the same range or cheaper.

DRAFT DECISION

In drafts, it only takes one coach to be keen on them to go off the board early. I can see some drafts, especially AFLFantasy scoring formats where he could go as early as the third round.

The earliest I’d be comfortable with drafting him is an M2 in AFLFantasy and M3 in SuperCoach. Who knows, he might drift a spot later depending on the quality of coaches in your league.

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#30 Most Relevant | Jackson Hately

Read Time:7 Minute, 3 Second

It took former first round selection Jackson Hately going the long way via the pre-season draft to landed at his club of choice. Now at Adelaide, can he become one of the breakout midfielders of 2021?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jackson Hately
Age: 20
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
80 Vs Western Bulldogs (AFLFantasy)
108 Vs Western Bulldogs (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
84 Vs Fremantle | AFLFantasy (2019)
108 Vs Western Bulldogs | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
57.8 (AFLFantasy) | 72.25 (Adjusted Average)
64.1 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $310,300
AFLFantasy Price: $486,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $480,600

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

The move to Adelaide probably took him a few weeks longer than he’d prefer, but finally, Jackson Hately is an Adelaide Crow. With Adelaide holding the #1 preseason draft selection, the club was able and ultimate used this way of getting him to the club from GWS.

In his draft year of 2018, Hately, who was eventually selected in the opening round was viewed as a ready made midfielder who had the skills and physical tools to become the perfect modern day prototype footballer.

Like many young midfielders that go to the Giants, he struggled to crack into the GWS midfield. In 2019 when he debuted against Fremantle, he delivered one of the most memorable first games for fantasy footy coaches. He scored an 84 in AFLFantasy and 95 in SuperCoach.

He followed up with another 80 the next week for AFLFantasy while 3 of the next 5 games following he scored between 67-69. Sure, not amazing. But for a first year player who’s getting zero midfield allocation that’s a rewarding start.

Last season in round 3 he played against the Bulldogs and it was by far his best game of the season. In this clash, Hately was given some midfield role and he certainly took the most of his chance. That game he had 21 possesions, 7 marks, 2 tackles, an 80 in AFLFantasy (adjusted score 100) and a 108 in SuperCoach.

It’s dangerous to give too much credential to the preseason community series scores. The reason being these are often experimental games and lack none of the defensive pressure of an in season match. That said, last year Hately was allowed to play through the midfield in the preseason games and returned scores of 85 & 94 in AFLFantasy. While in SuperCoach it was even better with a 129 & 92.

Take those scores with a grain of salt, but it does give fantasy coaches some encouragement that he can deliver for us when the right opportunities present themselves.

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MY TAKE

Former GWS players leaving after two seasons have a reasonable history of seeing a fantasy football scoring boost at their new club. Dom Tyson moved to Melbourne heading int the 2014 AFL season and increased his AFLFantasy average from 51 the year prior to 90. While in SuperCoach it was a 49 points leap to average 93. Jack Steele after landing at St Kilda elevated his fantasy out too by 21 points per game in AFLFantasy and 28 points per game in SuperCoach.

What was the cause of the drastic scoring bump? They were both talented players who found themselves starved of opportunity in a star studded Giants midfield.

Jackson Hately didn’t leave GWS due to homesickness. He left the Giants in the hunt for more consistent league footy and a central role in the midfield. Thankfully for him and perspective fantasy footy coaches, he’s come to a side in Adelaide that will enable him to do that straight away.

But what role will he play at Adelaide? To see the scoring uptick of a Tyson or Steele, he’ll need a similarly prominent role.

Despite he’s shape and size he’s not the inside clearance player of a Patrick Cripps or Lachie Neale. While he can and does play through the inside, Jackson’s greatest asset is using his endurance and athleticism to outwork opposition players.

Whenever his new teammates speak of him, it’s always these skills that are quickly lauded. It’s why for me I think the best and most likely role for Hately could be to have him hold down a key wing role. He’s not lighting quick, but he does have a similar skillset to another former giant in Adam Tomlinsion.

Hately can outwork his opponents to get into damaging spaces to set up forward momentum on the wing. At over 190cm, he can use his height and clean hands to create a viable outlet kick option when the defence is under pressure. Then around the ground in stoppages, he can then float in and out of the contest depending in the club’s midfield rotation at that moment.

If Hately does play a role less centre bounce centric then hitting the scoring heights some in the fantasy community are hoping might be a little too far fetched. Beyond Andrew Gaff, it’s rare for a wingman to consistently scoring premium numbers.

I’d be surprised in AFLFantasy he pushed his average into triple figures. But certainly, something north of 85 is very attainable. For SuperCoach, he’s shown he’s very capable of scores in the high 80’s to 90’s range. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him deliver that for a full season.

When selecting a stepping stone style player regardless of the line available for selection, the player’s bye round needs to be considered. Hately and his Crows have given you the perfect scenario with the club part of the final multi bye round. This enables you to carry him through the best 18 weeks of round 12 & 13 and then upgrade him to a premium that’s already had a rest.

Are there better options around his price? In DreamTeam, I believe there is. He’s $100k more than Essendon captain Dyson Heppell, and should he (Heppell) be fit and fitting by round one it’d be a brave call to back in Hately over a player who’s averaged over 90 in 6 seasons.

In AFLFantasy, we need inbuilt value into many of our starting squad selections. For me, Hately is an easy selection. At his price point you can easily pivot down or across to a better stepping stone if he fails to deliver. While conversely, he should generate a comfortable $100k if not more while scoring well in your side.

Based on the limited games he’s played, SuperCoach does feel like the format where he’ll be at his scoring best, and for me, I feel the most comfortable in selecting him.

I have Jackson currently in my starting squad in both AFLFantasy and SuperCoach and can see him in these formats especially being a popular pick.

For that reason; some coaches will have the confidence to potentially ‘take him on’ and bet against him by passing on him whether that be with another stepping stone, or moving to a more ‘guns and rookies’ selection criteria.

At the very least, if you’re in the market for a midprice player who can score well and get you to a premium quickly. Then it would be best if you kept Jackson Hately on your watchlist at a minimum.

DRAFT DECISION

His selection range will largely be determined on your draft day if his level of preseason hype increases or stagnates. There is plenty of potential and upside but is it enough to make him worth reaching for? I don’t believe he’ll be the player that determines the ultimate success of your draft side.

The earliest I’d ‘reach’ to picking him is your last on-field midfielder at M8. However, I’d feel most comfortable having him as a bench cover option.

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#31 Most Relevant | Jack Steele

Read Time:4 Minute, 46 Second

In 2020 Jack Steele went from being a tagger to becoming one of the most versatile and complete midfielders in the AFL. With longer quarters, can we see his scoring go up yet another gear?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jack Steele
Age: 25
Club: St Kilda Saints
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
111 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy)
167 Vs Brisbane (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
145 Vs North Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2018)
167 Vs Brisbane | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
90.9 (AFLFantasy) | 113.6 (Adjusted Average)
122.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $658,000
AFLFantasy Price: $867,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $839,700

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Everything changed for St Kilda and Jack Steele for 2020 and it was for the better. Under new coach Brett Ratten, Steele went from a defensive midfielder to become a ball hunting midfielder.

The Saints saw an immediate reward with the club making finals for the first time since 2011. From a personal level, it was a career season for Jack. He ranked: 4th across the AFL for tackles, 6th for contested possessions, 6th for stoppage clearances, 8th for total clearances, 14th for effective disposals & 18th for goal assists.

Breaking those stats down into his AFLFantasy season he returned 5 tons, 6 additional scores over 90 and just the one score below 70. Remembering that ’80 was the new 100′ that’s an incredibly prolific scoring season factoring in the shorter quarters. He ended the season ranked fifth for total scoring and 10th by averages. His 2020 seasonal average of 90.9 is an adjusted average equivalent of 113.

In SuperCoach he finished the season ranked third for averages with Lachie Neale and Max Gawn higher than Steele. From a total points perspective, he ranked second with only Neale scoring more in 2020.

From his 17 games last year he scored 13 tons, 10 of them were above 120, and a crazy 6 were above 135. Those are genuine captaincy numbers almost every single week. Besides his frequency of tons, his scoring floor is just as strong. With his lowest score of 86 being just one of 4 scorers below 100 all season.

When a player has such a large breakout season, some fantasy coaches could be hesitant to select him in 2021. However, for multiple years at St Kilda, he’s been a reliable performer even in a tagging role. Since transitioning to St Kilda, he’s always averaged 94 & 95 before his breakout season. So worse case scenario I can’t see his average falling below this.

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MY TAKE

Was it just a perfect storm for Jack Steele? Or has he moved into an elite performing midfielder for us? Some amongst the fantasy community would suggest the reason for the boost was the shorter quarters. However, the time on ground data would indicate that not to be true. In 2020 he had a TOG of 85%, but the year prior it was 84%.

The reason plain and simple for the scoring increase was the freedom of role offered to him. No longer was his sole focus to limit the impact of his opponent. Rather it was to maintain doing that AND to win the ball himself.

In the offseason, the St Kilda midfield had some significant additions. Adelaide’s 2019 best and fairest winner Brad Crouch has joined the club as a free agent. As a pure midfielder, he’ll take his share of midfield rotations. In 2019 when he played full games, he ranked 8th in the league for total disposals. Throw in former Tiger Jack Higgins, a potentially fit Dan Hannebery, and it’s far from a thin midfield.

I don’t think these players will impact the scoring opportunities of Steele. Rather it’s the next layer of Saints that could have some limited time.

Thankfully, Steele isn’t a one dimensional scorer. A look back across his scoring columns is a great visual that he doesn’t require one specific statistical line to succeed to score well.

It isn’t easy to go back to back with a 120 SuperCoach season and a 110 in AFLFantasy. It’s one of the primary reasons I’m unlikely to start Steele in any format. Another reason for passing on him is for coaches looking to chase starting squad value with underpriced premiums.

I think Jack will deliver another strong season, and while I don’t project him to be inside the top 5 scoring midfielders in 2021, I do have him hovering around the top 10.

DRAFT DECISION

After the season Jack Steele delivered, he deserves to be selected as an M1 across all game scoring formats. With a high premium value on the top tier of rucks, forwards and defenders, I believe we’ll see the lowest numbers of midfielders drafted in the first round.

Because of that, I believe Steele is a second round pick, and in some leagues might even drift to the third round should coaches choose to pick the bigger ‘name’ players.

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#32 Most Relevant | Nat Fyfe

Read Time:7 Minute, 15 Second

When he’s on the park, Nat Fyfe can be one of the game’s most damaging scorers. The question is, just how many games will he play in 2021?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Nat Fyfe
Age: 29
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
98 Vs Brisbane (AFLFantasy)
166 Vs Port Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
150 Vs Adelaide | AFLFantasy (2015)
171 Vs | SuperCoach (2014)

2020 Average:
75.3 (AFLFantasy) | 94.1 (Adjusted Average)
113.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $608,300
AFLFantasy Price: $720,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $695,800

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Without looking at his statistics, If I asked you how you’d rank the season from Nat Fyfe what would you say? Based on the current conversations and starting squad selections I’m seeing across the community many believe he had a poor year.

While he was down on what he’d done previously, it’s hardly a catastrophic fall from grace. Based on averages he still ranked 5th in the AFL for contested possessions, 8th for handballs and 11th for stoppage clearances per game.

From an AFLFantasy perspective, it was a down season from the Fremantle skipper. Six times he scores over 80, an additional four over 70 and just one score sub 50 which was an injury impacted game. A season average of 75 (adjusted 94) is still more than respectable given the challenges the season through at him.

In his primary scoring format of SuperCoach, he put together another prolific season. He ranked 11th for all midfielders based on his average of 113. His year was built off 9 tons with his lowest being 110 and five of them above 130. He had just one score sub 80 & that was when he injured his hammy in the 3rd Q against the Suns.

2020 saw him yet again fall to injury but compared to previous seasons missing just 3 games is hardly a catastrophe. Last years 113 average ensured his third consecutive season in SuperCoach where he’s averaged 110+.

The year prior in 2019 was a strong personal season for the Fremantle captain. He was awarded his third club best and fairest, recognised as captain this year of all Australian side and won his second Brownlow Medal. Individual accolades like this will see him go down in history as an all-time great.

From his 20 games he averaged 30 possesions, 18 of them were contested, went at 70% efficiency, averaged eight clearances a game and five inside ’50s. Across the entire AFL, he ranked third for contested possessions, sixth for clearances and tenth for total disposals.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he was ranked 15th for all midfielders ending the year with an average of 104.9. It featured fourteen scores over the ton, with seven of them over 120. Along with a high frequency of hundreds, he rarely let owners down with a poor score. Just twice throughout the season did he dip below 75.

Despite missing two games in the season, he ranked eighth in SuperCoach for total points of all midfielders and is one of only three available that averaged over 120 last year. In 85% of games last year (17) he scored one hundred or more. Of those 17 tons, 12 of them were over 120, and an insane six were 140 or higher. Across the season he had only three games where he didn’t reach triple figures and ended the season averaging 120.

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MY TAKE

Just scores wherever he is, whether it be forward or midfield he’s the perfect modern footballer. Like fellow Brownlow Medalists in Dustin Martin and Patrick Dangerfield, he’s equally as dangerous no matter where you play him on the ground.

Over the first 8 games of the season, the lowest time on the ground for Fyfe had just one game where he had under 80% time on the ground that wasn’t due to him injured. However, in the final five games of the year, his highest time on the ground was 83%, and he had two games where he barely cracked the 70% marker. Clearly, Fyfe’s time was being managed as the season went on.

Was that load management from the Dockers? Or was Freo allowing the kids of Serong, Cerra and Brayshaw the chance to own the midfield? I believe it’s a combination of both.

Much has been made of his growing injury history, and while it’s far from faultless, it’s hardly the disaster some make it out to be. In the past two seasons, he’s missed just five games. Brave coaches could see this perception as a chance to separate your side from the pack.

If you believe he’s destined again in SuperCoach to average 115+ then based on averages that should likely place him inside the top tier of midfielders. One of the key errors coaches can make in calculating injuries to premiums is they failed to project they can use bench cover in the points deficit.

Could you trust your bench for those possible 2-3 weeks he might miss? Could those ’70’ scores cover you for that period of time? Who knows, you may get a Caleb Serong style 100 out of the blue.

Does Fyfe + bench cover outscore that premium that has a better injury history? Remembering that in SuperCoach, Fyfe is a legitimate captaincy option every week.

While Nat Fyfe is a SuperCoach captaincy option most weeks, I want nothing to do with him as a starting squad player. It has nothing to do with injury or role concerns, but everything to do with a specific early matchup.

In round 2 he comes up against the premium destroyer in Matt de Boer. However, the following rounds are enticing. In round 4 he plays Hawthorn (home), Adelaide (away), North (home), West Coast (away), Brisbane (home) & Essendon (away.) Outside of a likely date with Elliot Yeo in round 7 it’s a fairly inviting early run.

Normally, for a player of Nat’s injury history, I’d suggest that ‘if you don’t start with him (or insert any player with injury history) you cannot upgrade to them during the season’. The reason being is with every game played the ‘risk’ of that potential injury occurring only increases with every game played. However, I believe with Nat, it’s different on one caveat.

That is that if the reason you passed on him had nothing to do with his injury resume at all. But rather, you have chosen to initial pass based on a desire to trade him based on fixture analysis and nothing else.

Coaches who play DreamTeam, I believe he’s a pass in that format. A 105 isn’t a strong enough average, and I’m not convinced he can score much higher than that.

In AFLFantasy he’s a chance of gaining MID/FWD DPP should he spend enough time forward. While I’d never pick him in this format without it, having Fyfe as a forward would certainly put him in contention as a top 10 forward option.

DRAFT DECISION

In SuperCoach, Fyfe is an M1 but not a first-round selection. This year if you have a late range pick, there is every chance he’ll be available on the turn early in the second. I’d happily select him there as either an M1 or double down on the midfield and make him M2.

In AFLFantasy formats, I think the earliest you’ll have to jump for him is the fourth round. He could drift into the early fourth, but his name value let alone scoring potential would be why he doesn’t slide any further. A good M2 candidate and wouldn’t be the worst M1 if you’d locked away two superstar selections in the defence, forward or ruck line.

Keep an eye on his role, and if he spends enough time forward in UltimateFooty and AFLFantasy he could be awarded DPP. Then he becomes a lock top 6-10 forward.

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#33 Most Relevant | Luke Ryan

Read Time:4 Minute, 47 Second

2020 was a breakout season for Luke Ryan. What fantasy footy coaches want to know, is was last year an outlier or the beginning of a new big name premium defender.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Luke Ryan
Age: 24
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Defender

2020 Highest Score:
102 Vs Collingwood (AFLFantasy)
162 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
138 Vs GWS Giants | AFLFantasy (2017)
162 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
70.5 (AFLFantasy) | 88.1 (Adjusted Average)
107.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $576,500
AFLFantasy Price: $673,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $651,200

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

When I think of Luke Ryan I think of a 200 game player entering into the twilight of his career. However, the reality is he’s just 24 and hasn’t even played 100 AFL games yet. The reason it feels like he’s so experienced is that ever since he’s entered the league he’s been a consistent and mature presence inside the Dockers backline.

Luke’s always been a reliable scorer and fine intercept defender, but in 2020 he took his game to the elite level. Last year he ranked first in AFL for rebound ’50s, 2nd for intercepts, 9th for kicks, 12th metres gained and 19th for total marks. These aren’t just ‘stats’ this highlights a defender who has multiple scoring columns. Something that all dependable premiums have.

From an AFLFantasy and DreamTeam perspective, he finished the season ranked 10th for points among all defenders and ranked by 18th for averages. Last year he averaged 70 (adjusted 88) scored over 100 once but posted 6 additional scores 80+. Remember in this format last year due to the length of quarters ’80 was the new 100.’

In SuperCoach Ryan was at another level and among the top defenders of the season. He ranked 3rd by averages & 2nd for points among all defenders. He averaged 107 which included 13 tons, 6 of them over 120 and had just 4 scores under 100 (all sub 70) all year.

Overall his season was amazing, but he did have a slow start with just just one score above 80 in the opening four games. However, from his final 13 games, he scored 12 tons. Incredible! For those that purchased him at his lowest of $471,000, they got a huge return on investment.

2020 was his best every fantasy footy season, but it’s far from a drastic scoring swing compared to his previous seasons. In 2019 for AFLFantasy and DreamTeam he averaged 80 and scored 5 tons, while the two seasons prior he averaged in the mid ’70s. For SuperCoach his 2019 finished with 95 as his average, including 6 tons and just 3 scores under 70. The two seasons prior he averaged 90 & 76.

Luke Ryan has displayed strong fantasy footy scoring tendencies, and at just 24 years of age, coaches should have confidence that he’s just starting to flex at the peak of his powers. Who knows, maybe he’s even got more growth in him.

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MY TAKE

Where did the scoring improvement come? Between his 2019 and 2020 seasonal averages, he jumped an adjusted 8 points per game in AFLFantasy and 12 in SuperCoach. Interestingly, he had a decrease in tackles & disposals while it was only his disposal efficiency (increase by 4%) and rebound ’50s per game that noticeably improved.

So why the increase? A case could be made that in SuperCoach, it was due to the way the game was scaled. But watching back the games back it’s hardly a mistake. He was a major factor for many of the Dockers effective rebounds and intercepting opposition attempts.

One potential cause for concern is that a few seasons ago the Dockers drafted Hayden Young. He’s a high quality user of the ball by foot and also builds his scoring through intercepts. If Young starts to take away some of Ryan’s kickouts or becomes an option for rebounds, we might see some scoring regression.

Luke Ryan is a genuine point of difference starting squad option in SuperCoach. Despite him sharing the same bye round of Rory Laird, Jake Lloyd and Jack Crisp he’s a viable option to go head to head against them. If your confident he can maintain his scoring, then it’s an option to consider genuinely. In a year when getting a unique premium back in the starting squad is rare, Ryan is a legitimate consideration.

He’s got the potential to push for a top 10 performer in AFLFantasy and DreamTeam, but he’s yet to show the big scoring ceiling in those formats consistently. So for me, I’ll target him as an upgrade.

DRAFT DECISION

If you play SuperCoach scoring formats of the game, then Luke Ryan is a genuine D1. He’ll be someone going off draft boards from as early as the overall pick between 15-30. In AFLFantasy scoring, he’ll rightly drift a little later but should be a safe D2 selection.

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#34 Most Relevant | Jack Ziebell

Read Time:5 Minute, 12 Second

Not much went well for North Melbourne or Jack Ziebell in 2020. Entering into a new year, with a new coach, can the Roos skipper burst his way back into fantasy relevance?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jack Ziebell
Age: 29
Club: North Melbourne
Position: Forward

2020 Highest Score:
70 Vs Sydney (AFLFantasy)
99 Vs Sydney (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
156 Vs Western Bulldogs | AFLFantasy (2011)
161 Vs Collingwood | SuperCoach (2013)

2020 Average:
37.6 (AFLFantasy) | 47 (Adjusted Average)
48 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $257,900
AFLFantasy Price: $644,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $347,400

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2020 will not be a season that the North Melbourne Football club look back on with fond memories. Outside of the emergence of Jy Simpkin and Luke McDonald, not much else is worth celebrating.

For the club’s captain Jack Ziebell, injuries were the primary cause of pain, resulting in him playing only 8 matches. Even when he did play, 3 of his 8 games he suffered an injury mid-game.

Round one he injured his medial ligament. The COVID forced shutdown actually enabled him to get back in time for the season restart. However, in round 4 he injured his hamstring while three rounds later he reinjured that same hamstring inside the opening quarter.

Most the year, Ziebell played a primary forward role with only 2 game against GWS and Sydney getting much midfield action. In round 2, he scored 66 AFLFantasy (adjusted 82) 89 SuperCoach, while round 3 against the swans he amassed a 70 in AFLFantasy (adjusted 87) and 99 SuperCaach.

These aren’t insane scoring numbers, but we can often have an incredibly short memory about a players scoring ability as a fantasy coach. Just 12 months earlier Ziebell played 22 games and averaged 90 across all formats.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he posted 9 tons, 3 of these were higher than 120 including a 145 & 155. In addition to this he had 3 other scores between 90-99. While in SuperCoach he scored 10 tons, 6 higher than 120 and an additional 4 scores 80 or higher.

If you want to drill down even further into his season, there was a large portion of the year that Jack was the most dominant scoring player in our forward line. Between round 6-16, he averaged 104 in all formats.

Looking over his 6 most recent seasonal averages before 2020 enhances the point that Ziebell is someone that as a forward eligible option we need to consider. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam his averages are a 95, 84, 90, 95, 94 & 82. In SuperCoach it’s very similar with averages of 95, 83, 86, 94, 89, 84.

Playing just 8 games in a season, plus three in game injuries is a concern. But before last year, Ziebell doesn’t have a heavy injury history. He played 22 games in 2019 & 2018, it was 19 games in 2017, and he played 21 & 22 matches in 2016 & 2015.

Having Jack back playing 20+ games for North Melbourne is essential, but not for fantasy coaches. In DreamTeam & SuperCoach he’s priced between $50-$100k of Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. All we need is for him to average a minimum of 75 and stay on the park for Ziebell owners to return a winning position. Over a long history, that looks a very safe bet for Jack.

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MY TAKE

What do we need to see from him in the preseason to select him? Ultimately, we need an injury-free preseason from Jack Ziebell. It might still be mid-January, but the club report that he’s ‘fit and firing.’

Everytime a new coach enters into leading a new side; change is on the horizon. Jack’s question is what ‘change’ does that mean for his role and fantasy football output. Ultimately, the coach knows, and hopefully, in the preseason we’ll see (preseason games) and hear (press conferences) exactly what that is.

You can build a compelling case for him to spend most of his time both through the midfield and always across the forward line. In 2020 the injuries to both he and Ben Cunnington exposed shallow an inexperienced midfield unit.

Does David Noble double down on blooding the kids like Luke Davies-Uniacke, Will Phillips and Tom Powell? Or look to balance it out with Ziebell taking his share of midfield minutes with Jed Anderson, Trent Dumont, Jy Simpkin, Jared Polec and Ben Cunnington?

A narrative can also be created for him being used as a regular marking target inside forward 50? Nick Larkey and Cam Zurhaar have both showed potential but will need help alongside them.

The way AFLFantasy has priced him has made Jack irrelevant. Even at his pricepoint of just shy of $650k, Ziebell will need to return career-best numbers to make him worth considering. I believe they’ve made a mistake in doing it this way, but I understand the decision they’ve made and why.

I’ve got Jack Ziebell currently in both my SuperCoach and DreamTeam sides, and unless injuries take effect, I can’t see that changing during the preseason.

DRAFT DECISION

Plenty has been made about the quality of forwards available to us in 2020. While that’s true maybe inside the top 5-10, the fall away in depth is quiet severe. If Jack Ziebell fires in the preseason he might get picked up as an on field scoring forward (F5), but honestly, the highest I’d want him as a depth/bench option.

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#35 Most Relevant | Alex Witherden

Read Time:5 Minute, 39 Second

A handful of seasons ago Alex Witherden was the ‘next big thing in fantasy football.’ However, over the past few seasons, he’s been in no man’s land. Now at the West Coast Eagles, will he reclaim his title?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Alex Witherden
Age: 22
Club: West Coast Eagles
Position: Defender

2020 Highest Score:
93 Vs Essendon (AFLFantasy)
170 Vs Essendon (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
138 Vs Adelaide | AFLFantasy (2018)
170 Vs Essendon | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
77.8 (AFLFantasy) | 97.25 (Adjusted Average)
94.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $456,100
AFLFantasy Price: $654,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $646,800

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

After being clearly in the Lions best 22 since his debut in 2017, 2020 didn’t go to plan for Alex Witherden. A combination of three things prevented him from playing more than just 6 games.

Firstly, The recruitment of Grant Birchall, second another strong season from Daniel Rich and lastly Witherden’s increasing ability to make costly turnovers. However, when he did fore his way back into the Lions side (round 9-13) , he reminded us that he can score.

Across his six games, he finished the AFLFantasy/DreamTeam season averaging Avg 77.8 (adjusted 97) it included 3 scores of 89 or above. It might only be a small sample size of games but based on averages that have him ranked 5th in this game format.

While in SuperCoach he averaged 94.3 and that included him scoring 3 tons one of those was a career high 170. He didn’t play much across 2020, but from the games he did, he showcased why over many years he’s been heralded as a long term fantasy footy premium.

After making his debut in round 14 against the Giants in 2017, he didn’t miss a game playing nine games consecutively and scoring above 70 for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and averaged 88. While in SuperCoach he posted 2 tons and didn’t score below 69 and averaged 87.

Then the following season (2018) he continued where his debut year left off. He played 21 games, posted 5 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam scores over 100 of those triple-figure scores his lowest was 116, a ceiling that not too many premium defenders can match. For SuperCoach he averaged 83 across the season with six matches him posting a century, and 4 of those were above 110. These averages include an injury-affected score of 15 in AFLFantasy & 13 in SuperCoach.

Over his final ten full games, his AFLFantasy/DreamTeam average was 99.6 while in SuperCoach it was 93.6.

2019 was a year of regression as some of the cracks in his game started to appear. In AFLFantasy and DreamTeam he averaged 75, posted three tons plus an additional 3 scores in the ’90s. Having seven scored beneath 70 really burned plenty of coaches.

It wasn’t much better in SuperCoach, an average of 72 that featured just one ton, it also had 6 scores between 90-99 and a further 6 scores below 60. 2019 was far from an ideal season. And after battling his way into and then consequently losing his spot, it didn’t look good for his long term fantasy relevance.

Thankfully a trade to West Coast will hopefully be the reinvigoration he needs to get back to being the top 10 defenders everyone believes he would be.

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MY TAKE

The trade of Alex Witherden to West Coast Eagles is a match made in heaven for fantasy football coaches. This is for a multitude of reasons.

Predominantly, it’s because the Eagles game style suits him perfectly. They love to maintain possession of the ball across the back flanks and wings with a kick/mark game style. Over the past 27 games of AFL, Alex has a kick to handball ratio of 4:1, making him the ideal player to sit into this style.

The other reason is the Eagles web defence can help safeguard against some of his defensives weaknesses. West Coast has some of the current greats at being able to swarm opposition forwards and turn any forward 50 entry into a battle.

Both of these things sound great in theory, but one core thing must happen for this to turn into him delivering premium fantasy scores. He’s got to force his way into the best 22.

The Eagles defensive unit is elite. Barrass, Shepherd, Cole, Duggan, Hurn, McGovern + Rotham and Nelson are among the most formidable and versatile units. He’s facing an uphill battle to crack through, but if he can, then he’ll provide us with one of the best scoring premium options available in our backlines.

You can’t just select Alex Witherden based on his historical scoring numbers or that he’s at a new side. I believe you need to see something from him in that Eagles preseason to select him in starting squad. That could be injuries to currently established talent—coaches reaffirming his safety in the lineup or overwhelming performances in the AAMI Community Series.

There are more ‘if’s’ involved that I normally like for a player at his price point, especially for one nearing an average of 100 points per game. I’ve got him firmly on the preseason watchlist. He’s certainly an upgrade target, and if he has a strong preseason, I might roll the dice and start with him.

DRAFT DECISION

Based on rankings by average he’s ranked 5th in AFLFantasy and 19th in SuperCoach. In SC, I couldn’t draft him at that point. I have more faith in the likes of Dane Rampe, Sam Docherty, Harris Andrews and Zac Williams who are ranked below him. That said, I think a D3 is the earliest I’d feel comfortable selecting him.

In AFLFantasy scoring formats, someone is going to draft based off last seasons averages. So I do see a world wherein some leagues he goes as someones D1. For me, anything higher than D3 feels too risky, but given that, I don’t think I’d end up owning him.

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#36 Most Relevant | Sam Walsh

Read Time:5 Minute, 15 Second

Sam Walsh delivered arguably the great cash cow season ever! Entering into his third season, he’s primed to breakout as a premium midfielder.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Sam Walsh
Age: 20
Club: Carlton Blues
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
114 Vs Sydney (AFLFantasy)
161 Vs Sydney (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
137 Vs Brisbane | AFLFantasy (2019)
161 Vs Sydney | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
77.3 (AFLFantasy) | 96.6 (Adjusted Average)
101.1 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $543,300
AFLFantasy Price: $739,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $714,300

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

From day one of Sam Walsh’s AFL career, he’s displayed why’s he’s been touted as one of the safest 300 game players ever. Walsh is the total package; he’s a tough customer inside stoppages, a strong runner in space, a high footy IQ, and one of the hardest workers both on and off the field.

His debut AFL season is still the greatest ever put together by a first year cash cow. In 2019 he finished the season averaging 93, scored 7 tons, had 9 extra scores over 80 & only dipped his scoring under 70 in just 2 matches.

SuperCoach performances from Sam were equally as impressive as he ended the year averaging 87. It consisted of 6 tons, 8 additional scores above 80 & just three times scored less than 70.

Excitement for his 2020 season was high, with many in the fantasy footy community expecting him to mirror the second year breakouts of Clayton Oliver, Nat Fyfe & Jackson Macrae. The season ended up being a tale of two halves.

Over the first 9 games of the season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 66.7 (83 Adjusted) with just the three scores above 80. While in SuperCoach he was going at an average of 86 and then included scores of 115 and even a 140.

However, from round 11 onwards in AFLFantasy he scored 83, 95, 67, 88, 96, 114, 95 & 77 averaged an 89 (adjusted 111.) While for SuperCoach he posted 114, 123, 98, 113, 132, 161, 84 & 119 averaging a total 118.

If you were to contrast his end of season run to last years top performing midfielder in Lachie Neale, it actually looks imposing. Over the final 8 weeks, Neale averaged 122 and 88 (110 adjusted) in AFLFantasy.

If Walsh can maintain this scoring (and role) from the back end of 2020 into this new fantasy footy season, then he’s pushing towards the upper echelon of scoring midfielders this year.

Throw on top of this that he’s still yet to miss a game of footy and all of a sudden this scream third year breakout candidate.

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MY TAKE

Why did he have the slow scoring start? And what resulted in the strong finish home? It’s a combination of two things. Firstly, Sam Walsh had an adjustment to his midfield role. He started playing more as a wingman in the early part of the season than a true inside midfielder. However, his scoring changed as he moved to a more centre bounce oriented midfielder. A role that on 3AW radio he started last week that is what he’s aiming to hold for the season.

The other reason is Walsh had a clear increase in his time on the ground. Between round 1-9, he averages 81.9%, while the remaining games beyond that he increased this to average 87.4%. It’s no surprise that when you play more of an ‘on the ball’ midfield role and spend more time on the field, your scoring increases.

If these higher time on grounds hold through into the 2021 season and he’s allowed to be more present at centre bounces then I see a world where Walsh can genuinely push the 110 average across all game formats this year. Sam might not be the ‘bull’ that Patrick Cripps is. Neither is he an electric burst player like Zac Williams; he’s just a strong well rounded midfielder.

Because of this, he’s never going to be oppositions team tag target making him a player free of intense midfield scrutiny and likely low basement scoring. I believe the fantasy breakout of Walsh becoming a premium midfielder is only a question of ‘when’ not ‘if.’ If you believe it to be 2021 then you’ll get a nice point of difference premium.

The potential for him in 2021 to be a top 10 averaging and scoring midfielder in AFLFantasy and DreamTeam is quite realistic. However, in SuperCoach, I don’t believe that will happen this season. That because he still tends to turn the ball over more often than I’d prefer.

At his price point, the selection ends to pat dividends in a seasonal average of 100+. He isn’t someone you should be targeting as a value pick, because there isn’t much there. Rather the mindset is he’s a slighter cheaper premium.

If you’re seeking value, you need to look lower down the financial tree at the Tim Taranto, Rory Sloane, Eliott Yeo, Dyson Heppell and Jackson Hately types.

It’s a pass right now in SuperCoach, but I’m looking for ways to start him in AFLFantasy and DreamTeam.

DRAFT DECISION

His draft range could be very interesting on draft day. By averages, he’s currently ranked 35th in AFLFantasy and 37th in SuperCoach. That places him without improvement as an M3 selection.

Someone could be extra bullish on him and reach early as an m2, but for mine, I’d feel most comfortable with him as an M3.

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#37 Most Relevant | Marcus Bontempelli

Read Time:6 Minute, 20 Second

The Bont was one of the most dominant scoring players to end the 2020 season. The question is, will that continue into a new season or was it just a hot streak?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Marcus Bontempelli
Age: 25
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
145 Vs Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
199 Vs Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
145 Vs Adelaide | AFLFantasy (2020)
199 Vs Adelaide | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
83.8 (AFLFantasy) | 104.75 (Adjusted Average)
116.1 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $623,900
AFLFantasy Price: $801,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $774,500

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Without question, Marcus Botempelli is among the best players in the AFL. Built like an old school key position forward ‘Bont’ has the rare ability to change the course of a game with just a handful of touches.

Last year we saw the Premiership Bulldog at some of his personal best. In the AFL he ranked 2nd for centre clearances, 6th inside ’50s, 9th for tackles & 18th for score involvements. Impressively he isn’t just an attacking midfielder. Bont is prepared to do the tough defence work. Despite the shorter quarters, he still averaged the same amount of tackles in 2020 that he did from 2019.

During the 2020 season in AFLFantasy, he posted 3 tons, 2 of these were over 120 in a season high 145 against the Crows. Additionally, he posted 8 more scores over 80. In fact, across the whole season, he had just two scores below 80 all year. He finished the season on fire as one of the most prolific scorers. He averaged 99 (adjusted average 124) from round 10 to seasons end.

By the conclusion of 2020, Marcus was yet again among the top scoring tier of midfielders. He ranked 5th among all mids for both total points and averages. He scored 11 tons, 6 of these were over 120, while a monster 3 went over 160 including his personal best 199. To top the season off, he ended 2020 with 8 consecutive tons to average 135 over the season’s final 8 matches.

Across the 2019 season in SuperCoach he ended the season ranked sixth overall for total points and tenth in terms of averages. He had thirteen scores of 100, nine of those tons were above 12, and an insane five went 140+.

AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he ranked thirteenth for overall points scored. He averaged 104, had thirteen scores over 100, and six of those were above 120. Just like in SuperCoach, his AFLFantasy/DreamTeam ceiling is matched with his consistently strong scoring basement. Only twice all season did he scoring drop below 80.

His 2019 and 2020 seasons, while built differently are almost identical averages over past two seasons. That should give confidence to coaches to think that he’ll safely deliver a 115 in SuperCoach and a 105 in AFLFantasy. Those are averages put him right in the conversation for a top 10 midfielder.

The Bont doesn’t miss much footy either. Over the previous two seasons, he’s played every game, While in the past five seasons he’s missed just three home and away games. If your playing fantasy footy bingo then Marcus could net you the win. Durability, consistency and ceiling!

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MY TAKE

Will the real fantasy football Bontempelli please stand up? I’m genuinely perplexed whether the front half of 2020 or the back half of 2020 is the more likely scoring result for this new year.

His 2020 seasons was a tale of two Bont’s Between round 1-9 he averaged 99 in SuperCoach and 70 (adjusted 88) in AFLFantasy. Not bad, but certainly not premium midfielder numbers. Over the final 8 weeks, he averaged 135 in SuperCoach and 99 (124 adjusted) in AFLFantasy.

If Bont starts 2021 the way he ended last year, then he’ll become the dominant ‘must-have’ midfielder in the game. Conversely, if he has a reciprocated slow first half, he’ll be putting a slow nail in your season rankings coffin.

It’s all about timing your run with Bont, Over his career just like last year he has these stretches where he becomes the most damaging player. Can you afford to pass on him in your starting squad? Or is it better to wait and time the run and upgrade to him?

One thing is certain; he performs better in wins rather than losses. A trait that isn’t exclusive, but is far from uncommon with our topline scorers. Last year in SuperCoach he averaged 13.8 points more per game in wins, while it was 17.3 points per game higher scoring in AFLFantasy. The season prior was an increase of 10 points per game in wins for AFLFantasy while he averaged 12 points more in SuperCoach. Then back in 2018, he scored 27 points higher in wins for AFLFantasy and 26.5 better in SuperCoach whenever the doggies won.

In the Adam Treloar podcast episode fellow panellist Rids & I pondered about how this new Bulldogs midfield will take shape. You can listen to it here. Ultimately, unless you have a crystal ball nobody can know the exact impact Treloar’s inclusion will have on the midfield rotations and the scoring ability of each player. However, it’s safe to assume that the inclusion of Treloar will hurt some Bulldogs scoring.

But what role will Marcus Bontempelli play in this bulldogs side? Will he split his time between midfield and forward more evenly, or will he still play a more midfield dominant role? Where is Bont at his most dangerous?

For some among the fantasy footy community, these role queries and midfield mix questions are reasons enough to pass on him in starting squad. It’s something I certainly understand, but for me the reason he’s an upgrade target isn’t exclusively linked to this.

A round six date with tagger Matt DeBoer is likely, and with a round 13 bye round make it awkward to feel confident of a faultless start. However from round 14 onwards he has a sold fixture.

Matches against Geelong, West Coast, North Melbourne, Sydney, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Melbourne, Essendon, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide. Beyond Elliot Yeo, I don’t feel any team has an opponent capable of stopping him in the midfield, let alone if he was to play forward.

Bont is an upgrade target for me, and hopefully for you when you choose to jump on that he flies. in my opinion he’ll yet again be a top 10 averaging midfielder in SuperCoach and just shy in AFLFantasy.

DRAFT DECISION

Each format of the draft games will require a different ranking position for Marcus Bontempelli. In SuperCoach, he’s a solid M1 and will be off the draft board in either the second or very early third rounds. AFLFantasy scoring I’d be targetting him at M2 making him a third or fourth round selection.

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#38 Most Relevant | Patrick Cripps

Read Time:7 Minute, 40 Second

Over the last few seasons, Patrick Cripps has been one of the most prolific fantasy footballers. After a down 2020 season, will he bounce back to his premium scoring ways?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Patrick Cripps
Age: 25
Club: Carlton Blues
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
99 Vs Geelong (AFLFantasy)
149 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
163 Vs Gold Coast | AFLFantasy (2019)
194 Vs Brisbane | SuperCoach(2019)

2020 Average:
75.2 (AFLFantasy) | 92.75 (Adjusted Average)
97.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $523,700
AFLFantasy Price: $718,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $695,200

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Up & down season for patrick and his blues. Moments where the footy public genunely believed they were ready for finals. then others where the ‘old Blues’ would appear and get hammered for big chunks of games.

2020 was the second time in his career he’s played every game. Even more impressive given the condensed fixtures and Cripps so banged up by years end, he required a shoulder reconstruction.

Looking at his AFLFantasy/DreamTeam averages, it was his lowest since 2015 where he averaged 86. Last year he didn’t score a ton but did have five scores between 90-99 and additional 3 x 80+ scores. In full length quarters that’s poor, but it shorter quarters last year in AFLFantasy scoring 80 was the new 100. So while it’s certainly well below par, it’s not as horrific as the stats initially first might suggest.

In SuperCoach he averaged 90 across the season. A dip of 27 points from his scoring of 2019. The 90 was built with 8 tons, 3 of them over 120 and just 3 more 90+. A total of 6 games (1/3) of the season was scoring below 90.

Across his 2018 and 2019 seasons combined he had only 7 scores beneath 90 from 42 games. Clearly indicating that in 2020 he was well below his regular output.

Speaking of his 2019 SuperCoach season he had 13 games where he scored 100 or more, nine of these he went over 120 and finished the season with an average of 117.

For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he scored ten tons across the season, six times he was able to convert them into scores over 120 and finished the year with an average of 101.

On first glance, he appears about 10 points per game of value in DT/AF and potentially 25-30 in SC if he can return near his best.

Why the scoring drop? For a Patrick Cripps quality player, you don’t just fall off a scoring cliff for no reason. He struggled due to knee injury in round 14 against the Pies in the final month, whether it’s causation or correlation is something fantasy coaches may choose to debate.

However, over the final five weeks, he averaged 67 in DT/AF(83 AA) and 81 in SC. Compare that to his opening 5 rounds of the season where he avg 84.4 in DT/AF 101 & 109.8 in SC. That’s a differential of 20 ppg in SC and 17 ppg in DT.

If you believe he’s closer to being front of year cripps as opposed to final weeks then he’s got some inbuilt value.

When selecting players as premiums you always want to be on a player that has a strong start especially in round one. Thankfully for those who want to start Cripps his recent round one history is strong

In his last three ‘first games’ of the year for SuperCoach, he’s scored 112, 126 & 130. That’s an average of 122. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s scored 130, 101 and 92 (adjusted 115).In these formats that’s an opening round average of 107 (115 adjusted) in the previous three. That’s strong enough numbers to loophole as a round one skipper.

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MY TAKE

Is 2021 the year the ever going Carlton rebuild finally delivers a finals finish? Several things need to happen, but one of the major factors will be increased support through the midfield.

Contrary to popular opinion I don’t think they need further support ‘inside’ the contest. You want Patrick Cripps in there alot; it’s where he does his best work. The development of Will Setterfield as an inside ball winner has certainly eased the load marginally.

Sam Walsh is entering his third season into the AFL and should once again take giant strides towards being an elite AFL midfielder. Walsh is a fantastic complementary tool to both players as he possesses the ability to be an inside/outside midfielder.

In theory, Zac Williams is the exact type of midfielder they need. He possesses line breaking speed, a touch of class and is a perfect second touch midfielder. What fantasy footy coaches are pondering is how Williams’s addition into the midfield and development of Walsh and Setterfield help or hinder Cripps scoring?

I don’t believe it’ll help raise his ceiling if anything it might dip in a minor way but his scoring basement should elevate. With greater support around him, opposition midfielders no longer just have to limit the impact of one player to gain ascendency.

A quick glance over the career of Cripps is that he tends to be a ‘feast or famine’, scorer. By that I mean, he goes on scoring runs that are 20+ points either side of his average scores. One of the major contributing factor in that is a tag.

Looking over the opening few months, they play Richmond, Collingwood, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Hawthorn, Sydney and West Coast. Outside of Greenwood (Suns) and Yeo (Eagles), I don’t see an opposition midfielder who has the defensive skills to clamp down on him effectively.

The concern of his recovery from a reconstructed shoulder is a valid one. Because of it, he’ll have a limited preseason heading into round one. However, at his age (25) the most important part of the preseason is getting the athletic and fitness base established for the season. He can still do those things, even some skills work. Rather, expect him to wear the ‘orange cap’ in training and match simulations and avoid contact work.

SuperCoach has always been his preferred scoring format. It’s this setting that I’m most excited about him. He’s priced 27 points under his 2019 average and 29 points below his 2018 year. In this format, he offers supreme value if he can get back to the 115+

Consider it another way, Lachie Neale ($721,800) is priced almost $200k cheaper than Cripps ($523,700.) For the same cost of Neale and a cash cow, you could instead select Cripps and Jackson Hately ($310,300). I know which pairing I’d have more confidence in cumulative scoring more. Yes, Neale, last year was always a captain option. But historically Cripps is a very similar candidate.

With less cheap cash cows to select from than ever before we need to be making the most of our starting salary cap. It’s moves like this that could help you fly out the gate both with points on the field but cash generation.

Worst case scenario feels like Patrick Cripps would deliver a 100 in SuperCoach. And in this scenario, given his ceiling potential, that’s not a horrible M8 given the initial outlay of investment. At this price, it feels like a low risk and high reward if he does get back to his 115+ days. I’m all in on starting him there.

Playing out a similar ‘worse case’ scenario’ then in AFLFantasy, he should make you a quick $50k. While again, the best case scenario is a cheaper end 100+ averaging keeper. DreamTeam you’ll want to start him in that format only if your confident he’s clearing that 100 average markers.

DRAFT DECISION

Historically in SuperCoach if you wanted to own Patrick Cripps, it would cost you a selection in opening two rounds of the draft. In 2021, he’s going to be available later than he’s been for years. In SC drafts, he’ll be available safely as your M2 (rounds 3-4) and potentially even an early M3 selection. If he gets back to his 110+ days, it’s a huge steal.

For AFLFantasy scoring formats, he’s more likely to be picked as an M3. Crippa has the potential to push to be an M2 based on output. However, on draft day you shouldn’t have to spend that high of a pick.

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About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

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