50 Most Relevant Archives - Page 32 of 32

#47 Most Relevant: Nic Newman

Read Time:4 Minute, 16 Second

One positive thing comes from injuries and that’s opportunities for others. An injury to Sam Docherty could be a huge fantasy boost for Nic Newman.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Nic Newman
Age: 25
Club: Carlton Blues
Position: Defender

2018 Highest Score:
119 Vs Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
110 Vs Melbourne (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
76.1 (AFLFantasy)
72.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $394,100
AFLFantasy Price: $552,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $411,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For years both in the NEAFL and the chances he’s been given at AFL level Nic Newman has shown his fantasy football potential. After being initially selected by the Swans at pick #35 in the 2015 rookie draft he was able to force his way into the side in 2017. That year he was one of the best available cash cows for fantasy coaches. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam coaches he averaged 86.6 from 18 matches, 7 games he scored over his average, 5 of those were hundreds including a match in round 8 against the Roos where he famously was a late inclusion after being dropped and went on to score a career-best 135. In 2017 for SuperCoach he averaged 82.6, 8 scores were over his average with 3 of those tons including his personal best a 151 against North Melbourne.

2018 wasn’t as kind for Nic both from games played and also a fantasy footy output, he managed just 10 games at the elite level and saw his fantasy averages drop 10 points for all scoring formats. This was due in part to some juggle of his previous season’s role with him being used to fill a variety of role gaps in the Swans side and not allowed play the creative link up role we’d seen previously.

Once Jarrod McVeigh signed up for another season plus some additional trade period recruits in Jackson Thurlow and Ryan Clarke it was clear Nic Newman was once again under significant pressure fighting for a spot. A move to Carlton took place in the chance of gaining more opportunities at AFL level.

Nobody wishes injuries on anyone, however, with the horrible news that Carlton co-captain Sam Docherty has injured his knee and will once again require ACL season-ending surgery a vacancy inside the Carlton backline has opened up. Prior to the news, I wasn’t convinced that Newman was going to crack the Blues best 22.

MY TAKE

Nic Newman is very lucky to jag into my 50 most relevant, while he does present potential fantasy footy value it’s hardly a line we lack in stepping stone or breakout candidates. Players such as Brodie Smith, Zach Williams, Pearce Hanley, Grant Birchall, Wayne Milera, Callum Mills, Jasper Pittard, Andrew McGrath,
Kade Kolodjashnij and Ryan Burton all have done it before in either full seasons or patches of games and show huge potential to push their averages verging on enough to be top 20 options. And at worst case can match what I believe Newman’s likely output could be but given his price tag in contrast the others could make you more bang for your buck.

The reason he is here is that there is a role in the side he can fill and he has shown potential for a monster ceiling for a defender, more so than many of those listed above. If the ‘stars align’ for Newman then it could be an inspired choice, but at his price, he’s likely to be someone you intended to hold and turn into a premium rather than just use as a stepping stone.

I can see a world where Newman comes out and dominates from a fantasy footy perspective, but I can just as easily see him struggling to find a spot inside the 22. It’s taken some time but the Carlton midfield finally looks like it’s coming together with Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, Matt Kennedy, Paddy Dow, Liam Stocker, Zac Fisher and Will Setterfield taking the bulk of the work. While still young and developing looks like a promising long term core group while still getting some support from Marc Murphy & Ed Curnow. While I do think Newman should get first chance at a defensive 50 role I could easily see him bring more used to lock down on opponents and players like Lochie O’Brien or even Tom Williamson being the play makers from half back.

For me, I can see the potential and understand why someone could be bullish on him, but to go there personally I’d need to see him deliver strongly in the JLT Series to consider him.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Newman is gonna be hard to place in drafts. I guarantee someone is gonna jump on him early whether it be a Blues supporter wanting a Carlton flavor in the back line or an over zealous fantasy coach bullish he’s gonna go 90+. I’d target to draft him as. D3, but you might not be able to get him by then.

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#48 Most Relevant: Joe Daniher

Read Time:5 Minute, 25 Second

At the verge of entering the 2018 season, Essendon’s prized key position forward looked set to dominate the AFL season. However, a nagging groin injury started to impact his ability to deliver so the Bombers took a cautious approach and ended his season. The one positive is, for fantasy coaches in 2019 we could have an absolute bargain on our hands.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Joe Daniher
Age: 24
Club: Essendon Bombers
Position: Forward

2018 Highest Score:
104 Vs Collingwood (AFLFantasy)
93 Vs Port Adelaide (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
63.8 (AFLFantasy)
56.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $260,900
AFLFantasy Price: $560,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $411,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Entering into the 2018 season SuperCoach players and especially Essendon fans were salivating at the possibilities of what Joe Daniher could bring to the football field. And it was with good reason, 5 years into his career and Joe was starting to deliver on the big stage consistently, not just for the odd game, or patches in games. Daniher wasn’t just impacting the games around the ground but inside 50 and on the scoreboard. Despite missing plenty of shots, he still converted through the big sticks at only over 62% and narrowly missed winning his first ever Coleman Medal in 2017.

A look into his 2017 fantasy numbers further confirms this. For SuperCoach he averaged a career-best season of 86, a jump of almost 20 points from his personal best. That year he scored 90+ on nine occasions, six times over 100, including a five-goal haul and a 124 point match against the Eagles. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam coaches he boosted his previous seasons average by 13 points up to a best of 85. That seasonal average included 11 scores north of 90, including 6 tons. While like all key positions forwards he does require bags of goals to accumulate his scores, it’s important to note that from his 22 games he kicked 3 or more goals in 14 matches. Not a bad conversions rate.

Sadly for coaches that jumped on the Daniher train in 2018, it derailed incredibly quickly. A nagging groin injury not only hurt his ability to impact in the match but also to the fact that after seven games he was sent in for surgery and missed the remainder of Essendon’s season.

However, let’s look at the silver lining. The positive for coaches is he is priced with a discount after playing just seven games, and that’s already on an average that was between 20-30 points below his average the year before. If Joe can get himself fully fit and firing this preseason, I struggle to see a world where he doesn’t bounce back at least to the mid 80’s average of 2017. Every chance that it may even be more given some to be expected natural improvement and the significant boost Dylan Shiel will bring to the midfield unit of Essendon.

If any fantasy coach is considering a ‘stepping stone’ or ‘breakout’ option in the forward line, especially for SuperCoach, then you must seriously consider big Joe!

MY TAKE

Confession Time. On my original 50 most relevant back in November I had Joe considerably higher than the high 40’s range he now sits in. He was verging on being inside the top 25 given all of the scoring history and natural development expected of such a quality key position forward. However, several weeks ago AFL writer Cal Twomey wrote an article (click here to read it) suggesting that Joe was in doubt for round one. While he still has months before the season proper gets underway to be fit, this far out it certainly screams alarm bells for fantasy coaches given that in mid-December the club is still unsure if he’ll play round 1.

While at his price he’s verging on a glorified cash cow in SuperCoach for DreamTeam & AFLFantasy coaches for Joe to reach his relevance peak then he needs to play round 1. The reason being is why he does have the potential to be a 90+ averaging forward across the formats he faces stiff competition of being a likely top 6-10 averaging forward.

Patrick Dangerfield, Isaac Heeny, Josh Dunkley, Toby McLean, Devon Smith, Sam Menegola and Lance Franklin all lay strong claims to be in the top bracket, and that’s before considering other viable candidates like Jack Billings, Jesse Hogan, Tim Kelly and even new hawk Chad Wingard pushing for a top 10 spot. Can you have confidence that Joe will average more than them? Possible, yes, but not overwhelming confidence that he’ll better their annual output. I truly believe while starting squads are essential for success for fantasy coaches, the real winners and losers come from the trades they make during the season.

To trade him into your side in DreamTeam or AFLFantasy as an ‘upgrade’ takes more faith than riding him like a breakout or stepping stone option which he’d start as in your side as.

His relevance is very high, higher than where I’ve placed him if he plays through some JLT and gets named round 1. If he does deliver premium numbers and he becomes someone you keep, happy days you’ve got a value premium, if not you bank the points and cash he generates you along the way. I always forecast that with any midprice selections I need to plan to trade that player at some point, I may never need to (e.g. coaches who started with Clayton Oliver 2 years back) but I need to be prepared for it.

If he plays JLT and gets named round 1, he’s virtually a SuperCoach lock for me and will be for many SC players. While in the other formats I’ll consider it. Even if he’s not right in round 1, at some point in the season if he’s fit, I’m aboard the Daniher train in SuperCoach.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Joe’s a hard one to land, and depending on the format he’s likely to vary where he’s selected. On potential, he could be a clear F2, 90 average in your side, but I wouldn’t be drafting him that high. In reality, for seasonal drafts, he’s probably not selected inside the top 100 selections and is someone you might even be able to draft inside the early teen rounds depending on the knowledge and quality of coaches your up against.

Keeper leagues it’s a different story altogether, given his age and the fact he’ll retain forward status for his career I wouldn’t feel it’s out of place to consider selecting Joe inside the top 70 picks. That said, I’d be confident that you should be able to get him considerably later than that given he’s only had one fantasy relevant season of note.

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#49 Most Relevant: Billy Longer

Read Time:5 Minute, 37 Second

The surprises keep coming early on in the 50 Most Relevant, this time it’s possibly the best cheap R2 option available.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Billy Longer
Age: 25
Club: St Kilda Saints
Position: Ruck

2018 Highest Score:
57 Vs Port Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
93 Vs Gold Coast (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
44.4 (AFLFantasy)
53.4 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $260,900
AFLFantasy Price: $484,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $285,800

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

I’ve written about hundreds of different players over the years for a variety of fantasy footy sites and publications and never in life did I predict I’d be writing about Billy Longer, and yet here we are. The thing is, Billy is a highly relevant fantasy footy option this year in all formats of the game.
When it comes to selecting a ruckman in any format you only want to seriously consider players who are clear top choice ruck options at their club and those who will largely do the bulk of the work during the match, the former #8 draft pick is exactly that at St Kilda. With the departure of Tom Hickey to West Coast Eagles, Longer now has a clear run at the top job. While the Saints aren’t short of big man coverage, none are realistic chances of knocking him off the perch just yet. Lewis Pearce is developing along OK, Sam Alabkis is a former US college basketballer and is still learning his craft and Rowan Marshall while capable as a relief ruck option is a better forward prospect much in the vain of Adelaide’s Josh Jenkins. In short, the #1 ruck role is a no contest, Billy’s got it in the bag!

Priced at under $300,000 in DreamTeam/SuperCoach he’s less than $50,000 more expensive than first-year player Sam Walsh. If we were to get an average from Walsh at 70 in the opening 6-8 games of the year, most fantasy coaches would probably accept that as a reasonable and that he’d have done his job both with points on field and cash generation. While Billy Longer isn’t a cash cow, he’s a stepping stone who based on his history when #1 ruck can score reasonably, added to this he gives you a look at the performances of other premium ruck options and finally makes you some cash.

If you look at his 2018 average you probably quickly rule out Billy, but sometimes you need to look back beyond the immediate to see the potential. During 2017, Longer won the #1 ruck mantle battle against now former teammate Tom Hickey, and during that season he averaged 78 across all formats. During his 17 games, that year for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam coaches he scored eight times over 80 including scores of 100, 103, 112 and 125. While for SuperCoach it was seven times going north of 80 including scores of 107,108, 111, 119 and 123. All it would take is a few of these higher scores in his opening few weeks for his cash generation to skyrocket and get you closer to another premium in your side and one step closer to a completed side.

MY TAKE

Nailing the ruck combination in your side is crucial to fantasy footy success. I suppose you could say that for every line, but given the least amount of potential scoring variations with just the 2 possible avenues to generate points, it’s probably safe to say that the rucks can make or break your season. If by seasons end last year your ruck combination wasn’t Gawn & Grundy chances were a majority of the competition was outscoring you week in week out in that line. For example, if your combination was Max Gawn & Stefan Martin you would’ve been 285 points worse off in AFLFantasy and 314 points worse off in SuperCoach over the final 10 weeks of the year. That’s a lot of points to be losing ground on in just 2 positions.

By locking in your starting squad two premium ruck options you run the risk of missing out on some serious points if you get it wrong or in using a trade in having to switch premiums mid-season. When starting with a premium option, the only reason you want to be trading them is if an injury arises. You begin with a premium because you believe they’ll be a likely top averaging player in that line for the season and you plan to keep them for 23 rounds.

Here in lies the reasoning for considering Billy Longer at R2. It seems like a large portion of the fantasy footy community is likely to start with last seasons best ruckmen Brodie Grundy, and understandably so. However, with so many question marks over the job sharing possibilities of last years other best ruck option in Max Gawn due to the inclusion of Braydon Pruess during the trade period, a midprice ruck option at R2 makes sense. By selecting Longer as opposed to being ‘locked into’ a Set & Forget combination it gives you the chance to see the impact (if any) Pruess makes on Gawn’s scoring potential. Added to that, it gives you 5-8 weeks to see if another ruck is bubbling away as a genuine top 2 option.

Todd Goldstein, Sam Jacobs, Stefan Martin, Matthew Kreuzer and even Toby Nankervis all have a history of being high scoring rucks and none of them would be out of the question of delivering a high-quality season.
I can see massive upside in 2019 for coaches not going for a set and forget strategy. And the worst-case scenario if Longer fails to score well, which I’d classify as a sub 65 average, then he just becomes the first priority upgrade target.

At this stage of the preseason, I have Longer locked away in my DreamTeam and SuperCoach sides while I’ll likely go elsewhere given his AFLFantasy price. It’ll take something to seriously change this as my possible starting squad strategy as I think a set & forget ruck strategy at this stage in the preseason is a mistake.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Rucks are always interesting to rank in a draft, mainly because if a ruck rush happens earlier than expected even the most experienced of coaches can be tempted to get on the train and overvalue them with that round based selection. That said, In both keeper leagues or seasonal drafts you’ll be able to get Billy super late, in fact in many drafts (depending on league size) he may not even be drafted at all. I’d be nervous if you’re drafting a ruck so late that Billy is the one that ends up on your field, but as emergency cover, he’s more than adequate.

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#50 Most Relevant: Harley Bennell

Read Time:4 Minute, 55 Second

Welcome to the 50 Most Relevant list of 2019 where I look at who I believe are the most relevant players in all salary cap formats of the game. To kick off the 50 I’ve started with a potentially highly controversial selection in Fremantle’s Harley Bennell.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Harley Bennell
Age: 26
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Midfield

2018 Highest Score: Did Not Play
2018 Average: Did Not Play

SuperCoach Price: $167,700
AFLFantasy Price: $236,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $199,600

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Harley Bennell is priced as a cash cow, make no mistake about it. When it comes to our money making cows there are two major concerns you have. Firstly, job security. Something that can destroy the momentum of any fantasy coaches season is when their cash cow is in and out of the side and not consistently making money week in week out for 6-10 weeks. One of the great unknowns with many first and even some second year players is their security to stay in the side week in week out. Who cares how good they can score, but if they’re not in the team they won’t be making you any money. The beauty of Bennell is if fit (yes it’s a big if I know) is that he’s clearly inside the Dockers best 22.

The second key with cash cows is scoring potential. No point selecting a guy who’s in the best 22 if he plays a role or shows limited potential to score north of 50 consistently. While it’s great to have a ‘pulse’ on your team a 35 every week won’t generate you any cash that gets you closer to upgrading your side. With Bennell, the scoring potential question is already spoken for. Just take back a look at his early career at the Gold Coast Suns.

For AFLFantasy and DreamTeam coaches between 2012-2015, his seasonal averages were between 84-92. For SuperCoach he’s actually averaged over 100 before in a season (2015) while the 3 seasons prior his lowest average was 95. Even in his debut season, he averaged in the high 60’s in every format, something that given his price point coaches in 2019 would gladly take.

Sometimes when we don’t see a player often we can forget the talent they possess, and talent is something Harley has in spades. At his best, Bennell is marvellous to watch with his class, skill and speed resulting in him showing glimpses that he can be one of the competitions most dangerous players.

At age 26 he still has (theoretically) plenty of years left in him, and if he can get his body even 80% back to it’s potential it’ll go a long way in helping the improvement of a Dockers midfield unit that is entirely built around Nat Fyfe.

MY TAKE

Job Security (check), Scoring History (check), what’s the concern? Plain and simple, his body! Only once since entering into the AFL (back in 2011) has he played more than 15 matches in a season. It gets worse, since joining the Dockers he’s played just the 2 games in 3 seasons and both of those were the final 2 matches of the 2017 season. Time and time again throughout his career at Fremantle calf injuries have been more common than not. Even at WAFL he’s barely been sighted. His best return was 2018 where he had managed 11 games with an average of 15 disposals a game.

Here’s the thing, if he gets through the preseason relatively unscathed, and plays some time through the midfield in the JLT matches, and is named round 1 can you select him? Absolutely, yes! You do not need him to play 22 games, not even 10-15. All you need from any cash cow is a 6-week window of consistent footy for you to be able to generate the cash you require. The best case scenario is he plays well beyond that and keeps scoring relatively well but by round 8 you can move him on to a premium of your choosing. Worst case scenario he does get injured mid game and cost you 30-40 points of possible scoring, makes you no money and requires a fix-up trade to a cash cow that you missed. If you’re OK with the reality of the risk the potential reward is more than worth it.

It requires plenty of ‘IF’s’ to happen, but for fantasy coaches, one of the worst things you can do in January is be closed in your opinions about a player especially one who’s shown he can seriously play. Fingers crossed we see him out there, I’d love to select Harley Bennell again in my side and hopefully, this is the year for him and us fantasy coache!

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DRAFT DECISIONS

In both a seasonal or keeper league Harley is someone that will largely go through and won’t be selected. For many, his injury history and even WAFL scoring numbers may deter many coaches from even seriously looking at him. For mine, depending on the depth of the draft squads I wouldn’t be opposed to using my final round selection on him in a draft. A fit Bennell is full of promise, and given most final picks in a draft get thrown out quickly to the waiver wire the possible upside and minimal risk is more than worth considering.

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50 Most Relevant: The Concept

Read Time:2 Minute, 24 Second

And so it begins! Another fantasy football preseason filled with optimism, hope and the possibilities that in 2019 maybe this year will be your year for fantasy success. For us at The Coaches Panel after our 12-month hiatus, a new website location it’s time to once again take part in helping you in your journey of Fantasy Footy glory.

Between now and March 21st 2019 when the season opens and lockouts commence you’ll look at hundreds of players, trial thousands of combinations and probably tinker with your fantasy football side multiple times per day. Here at the Coaches Panel, our desire is never to tell you what to do, rather it’s to give you good information for you to make informed decisions about your side.

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What makes a player fantasy football relevant?

It’s a number of factors, including but not limited to: starting price, scoring ceiling, scoring consistency, what position they’ve been allocated by Champion Data and the opportunities that may have become available during the offseason. These are just some of the reasons a player is relevant in salary cap formats.

The list isn’t about predicting the top 50 averaging players for 2019, far from it. Rather it’s about looking at all players, across all salary cap formats and using the premiums, mid-price, stepping stones and cash cows available to us to see who could be helpful in helping us achieve our goal of fantasy footy success.

The goal of the 50 most relevant and fantasy footy in general this early in the preseason is about doing the research, having open minded conversations and seeing the potential possibilities at our fingertips.

Starting January 1st, and then for the following 49 days, I’d like to invite you to join with me as I share with you who I believe are the 50 most relevant players in the salary cap formats of SuperCoach, DreamTeam & AFLFantasy in one combined universal list.

The countdown will include a daily article, podcast as well as a drafting range projection for both single season and keeper leagues. And if you wish to get early access to 50 Most Relevant podcasts then you can do that by joining our Patreon.

Become a Patron!

I look forward to spending the next few months discussing fantasy footy and can’t wait to hear about your thoughts on who I believe are the 50 Most Relevant players for 2019.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Throughout the countdown some players you’ll agree with, others you won’t and that’s OK. This is a subjective list, but one that I hope encourages you as a fantasy coach. I and other members of the panel would love to chat about all forms of fantasy with you.

Have your say at our Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.

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