For years Patrick Cripps has been a lone hand for the Carlton Football Club. As the side finally looks to have turned a corner, will it continue as business as usual for the skipper?
PLAYER PROFILE
Name: Patrick Cripps Age: 24 Club: Carlton Blues Position: Midfield
2019 Highest Score: 163 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy) 194 Vs Brisbane (SuperCoach) 2019 Average: 101.4 (AFLFantasy) 117.1 (SuperCoach)
It was another strong season from Patrick Cripps. He picked up his third club best and fairest, was the AFL PA Award winner and was given All Australian honours for the second year running.
Last season he was among the best midfielders in the game, he ranked second in the league for contested possessions and clearances while he led the AFL in centre clearances per game.
As strong as his season was ‘Crippa’ had a small fantasy footy points decline. In SuperCoach last season he had 13 games where he scored 100 or more, nine of these he went over 120 and finished the season with an average of 117. This season he also managed his career-high SuperCoach score against Brisbane with a 194 against the Brisbane Lions.
For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he scored ten tons across the season, six times he was able to convert them into scores over 120 and finished the year with an average of 101.
In starting squads last year Cripps was a popular selection, and those who did so had the full benefit of this selection. Between round 1-8 he posted six AFLFantasy tons, didn’t dip hos scores below 93 and was averaging 114.9. For SuperCoach it was seven tons, a low of 93 and an average of 126.
One of the most important things we need from our premiums, especially in the midfield is a scoring ceiling. Yes, consistency is important, but it’s the ability of players to score well beyond the average player that sets them and your fantasy side apart. Have a look at the top five scores from Cripps in 2019. For SuperCoach: 194, 169, 157, 152 & 148. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam: 163, 151, 141, 136 and 126.
2019 Patrick Cripps was pretty good, but in terms of fantasy scores, it was a dip on his 2018 season. The 2018 season for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he scored 14 tons, five of which were above 130 including 162 against the Suns. On the run home, he was absolutely on fire with 10 of his last 11 games were tons, with the one game being a 96.
Over in SuperCoach, he posted sixteen scored over the hundred marker and an insane four over 150 and a ridiculous two over 170. To top off this phenomenal season he had just the one score all season below 90.
He started like a house on fire, but if you upgraded to him post-round eight, chances are you would’ve found the scoring rollercoaster a frustrating ride. After six (AFLFantasy) and seven (SuperCoach) hundreds in his opening eight matches he was able only to post four (AFLFantasy) and five (SuperCoach) tons over the final ten games.
Additionally, to a lower frequency of tons, we saw a frequently lower-scoring floor. Five of the final ten games in AFLFantasy saw him score below 80 while it SuperCoachwhile it was just three.
During 2019 the Carlton Football club again sacked a coach midseason. While we did see an immediate spike in scoring 194 (SC) 154 (AF/DT), the change from Bolton to Teague in a topline sense didn’t change. He seasonal splits from round 1-11 and round 12-23 are identical with a SuperCoach average of 117 and AFLFantasy/DreamTeam of 101.
What happened with Cripps to end the season? Did opposition coaches figure him out with a tag? Did a load of carrying the team on his back cause a scoring deviation? Or has the Blues new game plan under Teague required Cripps get additional support? While the scoring splits don’t reveal any change, I do believe it’s a combination of all those elements.
Over multiple seasons Patrick Cripps has been one of the most popular picked premium midfielders. Already 2020 is shaping no different. Currently, he finds himself in 52% of sides. For some, those numbers make him an attractive player to ‘take on’ and look for a unique option. Players that have already appeared in the 50 Most relevant like Clayton Oliver (13%), Josh Dunkley (17%), Marcus Bontempelli (10%)Andrew Gaff (2%) and Dayne Zorko (2%) might all be good options.
However, for others that ownership locks him deeper into their teams as they do not want to miss out on one of the few midfield premiums that’s capable of taking a season away from you in 6 weeks. If you don’t have him in your starting squad, he’s certainly someone to consider as an upgrade even with high ownership numbers. Just be aware that trading in a ‘popular’ guy won’t assist you in making any ground on the pack if you’re behind them.
For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam coaches he does present some value given he’s priced at 101, but 12 months earlier he was coming off the back of 1 personal best season of 109. Depending on which score you feel his 2020 is reflective of should provide you with the information you need to decide whether to start him or not.
DRAFT DECISION
SuperCoach drafts he’s a genuine M1selection and if he isn’t drafted in the opening round it won’t be long into the second round that he lasts. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam formats he’s ranked just outside the top 20 midfielders based on 2019 averages. The earliest he should go in a draft is the third round, however, if you desperately want him you will likely need to reach into the second round.
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Hey, my name is Jordox, and like you, I love playing fantasy footy and enjoy finding a breakout superstar. Whether you play drafts or salary cap formats, getting a breakout selection right is one of the most satisfying feelings. Here’s my take on a player I’ve flagged for a potential breakout in AFLFantasy, DreamTeam and UltimateFooty.
Adelaide: Wayne
Milera Jnr
Pos: MID/DEF
2019 average: 77
2020 predicted
average range: 87-95
Taken with pick 11 in the 2015 National Draft, Milera
cemented his spot in the team in 2018 after a knee injury to Brodie Smith
opened up a spot on the half back line. He increased his average by 15 points
that season thanks to the opportunity and his own natural development.
After bulking up over the summer, Milera was expected to improve
even further in 2019 and even though at times he threatened to become a keeper,
injuries and a position change halted any momentum gained.
His opening month saw him average 90 before injury struck. He
continued his good form upon his return maintaining an average of 84 (including
an injured 43) until injury struck again. After the byes, Milera struggled to
hit any real fantasy form as he was swung forward in a desperate attempt to
spark the Crows ailing forward line.
With a new coach next year and a huge refresh of the list, the Crows will keep Milera where he belongs on the half back line and roll him through the midfield to give some extra grunt and speed. 2020 will be the breakout we all expected last year.
Brisbane: Alex
Witherden
Pos: DEF
2019 average: 75
2020 predicted
average range: 86-94
Witherden looked a tantalising fantasy player for years to
come after averaging 88 in his debut season in 2017 and backing it up with
another 88 the following year. His uncontested marks across the backline became
a feature as he averaged just under 7 marks a game in that time.
Flagged as someone who would take full advantage of the new
kick-in rule, Witherden’s average dropped quite surprisingly and would have
caused headaches for those who snapped him up early in Draft leagues. Whether
it was a case of the second-year blues arriving a year late or Brisbane’s
faster and more attacking game style, Witherden just didn’t get going.
His fantasy season stalled particularly after the byes
dropping his average from 80 in the first half of the season to 68 in the
second half. This wasn’t helped by a 3 he scored against Hawthorn in round 19
after going down early with a leg injury.
With the retirement of the great Luke Hodge and another pre-season under his belt, Witherden will bounce back in 2020 in a big way.
Carlton: Jack Martin
POS: MID/FWD
2019 average: 83
2020 predicted
average range: 89-97
Martin finally got his wish making his way to Victoria after
requesting a trade for the second year in a row. He found his way to Carlton
via the 2019 pre-season draft and the change of scenery could be just what this
prodigious talent needs.
Martin has shown glimpses of his best with a career average
of 75 but has struggled with injuries and form in recent years. He started 2019 well enough with some early
tons but like the Suns fortunes, faded as the year went on with his season all
but ending with a dislocated finger in round 16.
With Carlton expected to improve further in 2020, Martin will relish playing on the big stage and will finally realise his potential.
Collingwood: Jordan
De Goey
POS: FWD
2019 average: 84
2020 predicted
average: 88-96
Taken at pick 5 in the 2014 draft draft, De Goey has already
established himself on the big stage, most notably the 2018 finals series, but
has yet to truly break out in the fantasy world. A powerful mobile forward who
can turn a game on its head, his career has been affected by injury and his off
field exploits.
His ability to get up the ground makes him relevant in all
formats of fantasy but his importance to Collingwood’s forward line means he
only averaged 17 touches this year. His best game of the year was against
Richmond in round 19 when he had 28 touches for a solid 119 points but unfortunately,
he was cut down by injury and missed the remainder of the home and away season.
Now entering his 6th season, more midfield time could be on the cards with the emergence of Mihocek and Cox remaining at the club. If De Goey can stay fit, he looks like a player ready to reach the next level.
Essendon: Darcy
Parish
POS: MID/FWD
2019 average: 79
2020 predicted
average range: 84-92
Parish is another high draft pick starting to mature and
find consistency in his game. His 4th season at the level saw the
Bombers try to get the ball in his hands by rolling him through the midfield
more often.
A safe user of the ball, his tackling game became a feature
this year. Not including his concussion affected game against the Power in round
20, he laid 3 or more tackles in every game bar 3 including a 9 tackle haul in
round 23.
His disposal average was a modest 20 but he did have a
purple patch in the middle of the year that saw him average 28 touches over a 4
game stretch.
As he continues to develop, he should see more midfield minutes and could be a unique option for your forward line in 2020.
Fremantle: Adam Cerra
POS: DEF
2019 average: 61
2020 predicted
average range: 76-84
A classic 3rd year breakout season looms for
former pick 5 Cerra. A solid debut season in 2018 saw him play 21 of 22 games
with the Dockers and was highlighted by a strong 30 disposal, 3 vote
performance against the Crows. He consolidated his position in the side in 2019
adding another 20 games and spending some time in the backline to further his
craft.
With new coach Justin Longmuir at the helm, a more permanent
midfield role is on the cards with Cerra himself claiming he has “received some indication” from Longmuir that he’s set to
earn an increased stint in the middle next season.
The other cause for optimism is Cerra could have his first uninterrupted pre-season in 2020. In his first pre-season, he came in after shoulder surgery and then last pre-season came in with a calf strain and didn’t get to train properly with the main group until after Christmas. Keep an on eye on him over Summer as he could be a sneaky gem for your forward line.
Geelong: Brandan Parfitt
POS: FWD
2019 average: 72
2020 predicted average range: 78-86
Tim Kelly’s departure is a big
blow for the Cats, albeit an expected one, but it does open the door for
someone like Parfitt to really lift his game. Pace and two way running is
exactly what Geelong need in the midfield to compliment the likes of Dangerfield,
Selwood and Duncan, and Parfitt has that in spades.
Parfitt’s 3rd season
saw him drop his fantasy average slightly, but this can be partially blamed on
injuries. His goalkicking dried up too only kicking 4 snags for the season
which is down from 15 in 2018. One stat that shows promise, however, is his
tackling. He has laid a tackle in every game he has played across his career
and averaged 5 a game for the season this year.
More midfield time should help push his possession tally up (average of 18 in 2019) and with a bit of luck with injuries, Parfitt is due for a big 2020.
Gold Coast: Jack Bowes
POS: MID
2019 average: 72
2020 predicted average range: 78-86
In his third season, Bowes was
putting together a pretty handy season before a serious groin injury in round
11 saw him miss 7 weeks and halt his momentum.
Embracing his new role as a more
permanent inside mid, Bowes hit the season running averaging 93 across the
opening 5 rounds including some eye-catching performances against Fremantle (27
touches) and Adelaide (7 tackles) plus there was that late, late, match winning
goal in round 4 (sorry Blues fans!)
Much like Gold Coast’s season,
Bowes’ fantasy form dipped after the promising start but crucially, he did
finish the season fully fit scoring a respectable 84 in a heavy loss to the
Giants.
With another pre-season under his belt and hopefully more development for the Suns’ young list, you could do a lot worse than picking Bowes for a spot in your midfield. He will make you money and provide a nice stepping stone to a fallen premium around the byes.
GWS: Harry Perryman
POS: MID
2019 average: 76
2020 predicted
average range: 80-88
Perryman spent his first couple of seasons in and out of the
senior squad plying his trade on the half backline at AFL level but dominating
as a midfielder in the NEAFL. Spots in the GWS midfield are hard to find but in
2019 more midfield time opened up for Perryman as he found himself running up
and down the wings in what appeared to be a half back/half forward hybrid role.
The signs were there in the JLT pre-season series when
Perryman averaged a neat 84 in the two matches but unfortunately, the season proper
didn’t start as well, as he sustained a punctured lung in round 1.
He missed 7 games returning in round 9 with 24 touches and 10 marks, going on to average an impressive 93 (RDT/AF) in his first four games back. He slowed after that but still put up reasonable enough scores to suggest he will be a solid fantasy scorer in the future.
Hawthorn: James
Worpel
POS: MID
2019 average: 97
2020 predicted
average range: 102-110
What a second season for Worpel, playing all 22 games and
boosting his average by 30 points! Widely expected to be a beneficiary of Tom
Mitchell’s season ending injury in January, Worpel stepped into the midfield
like a duck to water whilst gracing our forward lines in the fantasy world.
He started the season modestly but was certainly doing
enough to justify those that believed the JLT hype and jumped on. It was after
the byes that he really caught fire, scoring 7/11 tons and averaging 103 in
that time. Putting out these sorts of scores meant it was a tricky decision to
upgrade Worpel and it even meant he became a trade target!
The concern with betting on Worpel increasing his average
next season is the return of Tom Mitchell who is one of the greediest ball hogs
we’ve seen. Worpel will have to work extra hard to rack up extra touches and along
with this is the fact that we can only pick him in the midfield with the
removal of the coveted dual position status.
There’s a similarity to Clayton Oliver here, a young ball magnet who increased his fantasy average by 32 points in his second season and despite the pressure, backed it up with another 7 point increase the next season. Get on the Worpedo!
Melbourne: Ed Langdon
POS: MID
2019 average: 92
2020 predicted
average range: 96-104
Langdon has returned home to Melbourne in what could turn
out to be the best move in a hectic trade period. Along with Tomlinson, Langdon
will add some much needed dash and pace to Melbourne’s wing areas and should
mean Brayshaw goes back to where he belongs in the centre square (bargain
alert!)
After some extreme yo-yo scoring in 2018, Langdon found some
consistency in his fifth year in the system in 2019. He finished the season off
in some style too, averaging 111 in the last four games including a career best
37 touches against the Bombers in round 22.
Langdon’s game really suits the wide expanses of Optus
Stadium with his numbers heavily favoured to games played there. Over the last
two seasons and since he has become a regular in the side, Langdon has averaged
98 points at Optus Stadium and 81 points away from the ground.
This bodes well for his scoring potential next season at the MCG as Melbourne’s home ground is just as wide as Optus Stadium and Langdon will be playing a lot of his footy there. It’s hard to see Langdon not busting out in 2020 and putting his hand up as one of the best wingmen in the league.
North Melbourne: Trent
Dumont
POS: MID
2019 average: 88
2020 predicted
average range: 97-105
For anyone who had Dumont in his debut season in 2015, they
will remember the frustration of fielding the young ball magnet only to see him
constantly wearing the sub vest! He was the starting sub in 5 of his 8 games
that season but still managed an average of 45.
Thankfully after that season the sub rule was no more, and
Dumont has slowly but steadily improved every year since.
In his 6th season in the system, 2019 saw Dumont
collect the 3rd most disposals and 5th most marks for North
Melbourne playing mostly on the wing. He especially impressed in round 7
against Carlton when he collected an equal career best 38 touches.
His form before the byes was a real standout scoring above
90 in 8 out of 12 matches for an average of 92 but he did appear to tire as the
season went on. His durability has been impressive, though, only missing 4
games in the last 3 years.
Continued natural progression and opportunity should push Dumont closer to his first ton average in 2020.
Port Adelaide: Scott
Lycett
POS: RUCK
2019 average: 83
2020 predicted
average range: 95-103
Fresh off a premiership with the Eagles, Lycett was expected
to be the number 1 big man at the Power in 2019 with Ryder to play as a more
permanent forward. As the season went on, Ryder’s impact as a forward wasn’t as
strong as had been hoped and he moved back to sharing ruck duties with Lycett.
The new recruit’s start to the season was lukewarm at best
only tonning up once in the first 13 rounds (albeit with a 99 in there too). The
surprising decision by Ken Hinkley to drop Ryder to the SANFL in round 14 started
a purple patch for Lycett. In the 5 games Ryder missed, Lycett averaged 105 (22
above his season average) including 34 hitouts (8 above his season average).
Concerningly, Hinkley then dropped Lycett in round 20 which
was an even bigger surprise than the Ryder omission, given Lycett at the time was
ranked the 6th best ruckman according to Official AFL Player
Ratings.
This will have served as a wakeup call and with Ryder leaving for St.Kilda, the number 1 spot is Lycett’s alone for 2020. Expect him to take this opportunity with both hands and have a career best season in 2020, his 10th season.
Richmond: Jayden
Short
POS: DEF
2019 average: 70
2020 predicted
average range: 82-90
Short played every game of the 2018 season providing run and
dash off the halfback line on the way to a respectable average of 76. He went into 2019 expected to take his fantasy
game to the next level but after a reasonable first couple of games, Short
dislocated his shoulder in round 3 and would miss the next 10 games.
This robbed Short of the momentum his game had been building
and when he returned in round 15, anyone who grabbed him as a free agent in
Draft had to be patient as he worked his way back into it. After a quiet first
month back, he hit some decent form in the final 5 weeks averaging 85 and an
impressive 7 marks per game.
Short has established himself as an important player in this
strong Richmond side and was one of the driving factors that saw the Tigers
surge to the Premiership. With the departure of Ellis, there could be more
space for him to get up the field and move onto the wing, but he is probably
too important to be removed from the backline.
Interestingly, with the removal of Short’s injury affected game (when he came off the field early in the first quarter on 3), his average reverts to 76 which is the same average as the year before. Let’s call 2019 a mulligan for Short and watch him truly break out in 2020.
St. Kilda: Jack
Steele
POS: MID
2019 average: 96
2020 predicted
average range: 104-112
Those that remember the stunning 10 tackle debut game of
Jack Steele in 2015 have been waiting patiently for him to elevate himself into
premo status. After struggling to break into the GWS midfield for a couple of
years, Steele made his way to St. Kilda in 2017 and after a bright first
season, struggled a bit with form and consistency in the first half of 2018.
To combat this, St. Kilda coach at the time Alan Richardson
assigned Steele a tagging role which he excelled at. Blanketing the likes of
Clayton Oliver and Ollie Wines meant the role would stick for the rest of the season
and it helped, not hindered, his fantasy game.
Expected to go on with it in 2019, Steele was too often more
focused on his man and not enough on fantasy stats as he faded in and out of
games. He still managed a decent average of 96 largely due to his love of tackling.
An average of 8 tackles a game was helped by the ridiculous 18 tackles laid in one
game against the Kangaroos in round 16.
In the final round of the season, Steele was freed from his
tagging role and allowed to play his natural game resulting in 27 touches, 7
tackles and a goal for a fantasy score of 120.
Steele himself has recently said that new coach Brett Ratten will be cutting him free in 2020 and playing him as a traditional inside mid. This means Steele will be chasing the pill and not just the man, and when you consider he averaged 99 as a tagger (since mid-2018), it’s clear to see the time is now for the man with arguably the best name in the AFL.
Sydney: Isaac Heeney
POS: MID/FWD
2019 average: 90
2020 predicted
average range: 100-108
It feels like the fantasy world has been waiting an eternity
for Heeney to break through to premo status, but the reality is he’s still only
23. Averaging 92 in his third season (2017) set the expectation that he was
going to dominate the fantasy world once given a permanent midfield spot, but
he has had to bide his time while competing with a strong Sydney midfield and
the fact that he is extremely handy around goals.
After missing chunks of the 2017 and 2018 pre-seasons with
glandular fever and minor knee surgery respectively, Heeney still averaged 90+
in both seasons. With a full pre-season under his belt, there was plenty of
optimism around him heading into the 2019 season. He had a solid year averaging
the 7th highest points of all available forwards, hitting the ton 9
times and playing in every game for the first time in his career.
But for all the good, the same frustrations emerged
throughout the season. Heeney’s ceiling remains low (he has only scored 120+
three times in his career) and he still tends to go large periods without
scoring fantasy points in games. On 5 occasions Heeney scored under 70 as John
Longmire continued to use him as a deep forward when Sydney needed a spark.
Looking ahead to 2020, Heeney enters his 6th season and should see much more midfield time. Zak Jones’ departure leaves a hole and co-captains Parker and Kennedy aren’t getting any younger. The emergence of Nick Blakey and the form of Tom Papley also means there will be much less reliance on Heeney to hit the scoreboard. Our patience is about to be rewarded.
West Coast: Nic
Naitanui
POS: RUCK
2019 average: 72
2020 predicted average
range: 84-92
The oldest player in this article and entering his 11th
season, Naitanui seems an odd choice as a player most likely to break out. Realistically
though, he hasn’t come close to reaching his fantasy potential due to a career riddled
with injuries.
The 2015 season was Naitanui’s only season since 2010 where
he didn’t miss any games due to injury (he missed a couple of late season games
for personal reasons). Not surprisingly, this was his best season in fantasy
averaging 88 as he shared ruck duties with current Swan Callum Sinclair.
Naitanui scored above 90 in half of his games that year and gave an exciting glimpse
of what he can do when fit.
Naitanui started 2016 with a bang, scoring 131 in round 1,
and was averaging 87 late in the season when he went down with an ACL injury.
He returned in 2018 and was putting together another decent season averaging 84
when he went down again in round 17. He had suffered another ACL injury but
this time to his good knee.
Round 15, 2019 saw Naitanui return to the field and put
together a few games with modest numbers only to then miss the rest of the home
and away season with an ankle problem. Crucially for his 2020 prospects, he
returned for the finals and scored 96 as the Eagles bowed out of the
premiership race in their Semi Final loss to the Cats.
Naitanui is on track to complete his first full pre-season since 2016 (when he scored 131 in round 1!) and is expected to start 2020 full of running. If he can stay fit, and that clearly is a big “if”, the number 1 big man at the Eagles will have a career best season.
Western Bulldogs: Tim
English
POS: RUCK
2019 average: 77
2020 predicted
average range: 83-91
Taken in the first round of the 2016 National Draft, there
has been plenty of talk about the potential of English with him being compared
to the likes of Brodie Grundy who is the best ruckman in the game. In 2019 we
started to see what all the talk was all about.
Ruckmen typically take longer to mature and ply their trade
in the reserves for a few years while they bulk up to compete with the man
mountains they face in the AFL. So, with that, it was a bit of a surprise to
see young English leading the ruck line for the Bulldogs in just his 3rd
season.
It’d be fair to say at times he looked out of his depth as
his skinny 205cm frame was monstered by the likes of Sinclair and Witts in
early season games. But it was against Grundy, the competition’s benchmark, in round
4 that English started to find his feet. Beaten soundly at the stoppages,
English never gave up laying 6 tackles and kept Grundy honest around the ground
gathering 17 touches and scoring 86.
Including that game, English would average 93 over a four
week stretch before being rested for a couple of weeks with soreness. His
performances waned as the season went on which is to be expected for a young
player tasked with such a big role but his performance in the Elimination Final
against GWS was a stand out. Up against a monster of a man in Mumford, English
ran rings around him scoring 105 and starring in the loss.
With another pre-season in the gym and the experience gained
in 2019, English is set to go bang in 2020 and stake his claim as the best
young ruckman in the game.
The writing was on the wall for another pain-filled season when in round two Sam Jacobsinjured his knee. It wasn’t until round 21 that ‘Sauce’ was seen back at the elite level.
Part of this was due to him needing time to rehab the injury. The other was due to the emergence of Reilly O’Brien. After biding his time for years in the SANFL, the Jedi Knight became master as the Crows. This forced jacobs to play eight games in the SANFL as it became evident that for the first time since 2012, Adelaide a brand new first choice ruck.
We don’t have alot of statistics to observe from the year given it’s impacted with an injury and a game where he rucks shared with ROB. However, in the three games, he was sole ruck and fit, he was scoring right in the zone we want heading into 2020.
AFLFantasy and DreamTeam he posted a 73, 95 & 115 at an average of 93. In SuperCoach he scored 86, 84 & 125 at an average of 98.3. Yes, it’s a small sample size, but it reminds us that even in 2019, he can still be relevant.
A look back over the most recent history of his time at Adelaide, and you see a durable ruck, capable of posting some strong seasons.
Back in 2018, he played every game, averaged 36 hitouts and 11 two tackles, two marks and 11 possessions a game. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam that translated to a seasonal average of 81, which featured four hundred plus scores. For SuperCoach he averaged 84, had three tons, one of them was a 145.
Sam’s also only two seasons removed from his personal best AFLDantasy/DreamTeam year. In 2017 he averaged 99, had ten scores over 100 three of those above 120 and he had only four scores below 80 all year. For SuperCoach he averaged 95, had ten matches where he scored over the ton, three of them were north of 130 and dipped below 80 in just three games.
Not a bad set of recent numbers. Especially, given that we are paying for him at a substantial discount to that price.
The critical reason your selecting Sauce is this. You do not want to start the ‘set and forget’ ruck strategy of Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy. Whether it be because it makes your team weak in other lines, don’t like set and forget or any other of a million reasons. The reason you’re picking him isn’t to replace one of them for the year, but rather to be a quick-stepping stone to the one you take one.
MY TAKE
It’s alot of money to start Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy! By seasons end you’ll want them both, but can you maximise your salary cap better by taking one of them on. For example, in SuperCoach Gawn is $350,000 more than Sauce, but if Sauce scores at 85 and Gawn go 120 over the opening ten weeks of the season your approximately 350 points ‘worse off’. However, it isn’t as simple as that, the additional cash you’ve saved is the difference between starting Stephen Coniglio over Noah Anderson. You’d expect ‘Cogs’ will outscore him by that points gap of 350.
It may not work out that way, but it’s the mindset, and process coaches must use to aid the decision of if they should select Sam Jacobs or not.
Om the topic of SuperCoach, I anticipate his hitout to advantage numbers to go through the roof. At GWS he has arguably the best midfield in the land reading the ball from his hand. Josh Kelly, Lachie Whitfield, Stephen Coniglio, Tim Taranto, Jacob Hopper and Callan Ward.
The Sauce couldn’t have asked for a better fixture to open the season with. Many of the teams have either low quality or are players who historically are scored well against. Over the opening eight weeks, GWS take on Geelong, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Sydney, Gold Coast, Richmond and Collingwood. Only three of those matches look challenging for Sauce, the other five he is streaming ahead and should score very well against.
Finally, with Grundy and Gawn sharing the same multi bye round (13) alot of teams will be scoring donuts through this line. However, those that have Sam Jacobs could be rewarded. Not only is he playing that round (he can be easily traded at his bye round the following week), but he also plays The Bulldogs. The team he scored his 115 (AFLFantasy) and 125 (SuperCoach against last year.
All aboard who I believe is the best multi-format stepping stone in the ruck division.
DRAFT DECISION
If you don’t get an early selection in the opening round of the draft, you can pretty much kiss goodbye the hopes of owning one of the elite scoring rucks. Sam Jacobs presents immense substantial value late in a draft given his recent history is of scoring between 80-95. Not a bad pick up with one of your last on-field selections.
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Lewy & Checkers from Lane Kicking are back with their take on some Essendon Bombers on their AFLFantasy watchlist.
BREAKOUT: Darcy Parish – $589,000 (MID/FWD)
Make or break year for the former Pick 5, has been tempting us each year with the promise of “more midfield time” but has always been underwhelming with just 6 tons in his 74 game career. Averaged 28 disposals and 7 clearances in his draft year, so fingers crossed he can get his numbers back towards that, there was a brief patch last year where he put together consecutive 30+ disposal games and had a 5 game rolling average of 95 between Round 10-15. The advantage here is his DPP because while a lack of tons won’t cut it in your midfield, some consistent high 80s and 90s could be handy up forward
TRACK: Andrew McGrath – $554,000 (MID)
Moved into a more permanent spot in the midfield last year, but it did very little for his fantasy game, only adding 3 points to his average. 4th year in the competition, 60+ games under his belt, we know how much potential he has, track the pre-season games to see if we can expect any improvement in 2020
ROOKIE: Mitchell Hibberd – $197,000 (MID)
Three words that get fantasy coaches lips watering “Mature Age Midfielder” and 23-year-old Mitch Hibberd is the juiciest of them all. Previously on North Melbourne’s list, he played just 4 games off the half-back flank for an average in the 40s. Went back to the VFL and moved back into the midfield last year, averaging 99 fantasy points. At 190cm tall he could be very handy in what is quite a small midfield, watch his pre-season and if named Round 1 you would almost have to start him
UNDERDOG: Tom Cutler – $496,000 (MID)
Sharing some similarities to Mitch Hibberd, Tom Cutler stands at 192cm and 95kg and comes to the Bombers as a very handy candidate to add some height and size to their midfield and will be used as a two-way runner on the wings. We also saw Essendon’s midfield get decimated by injuries last year with Heppell, Smith and Fantasia missing at different stages, so some very smart recruiting trading for 24-year-old Cutler and drafting 23-year-old Hibberd to add some ready-made options to their list.
Cutler was starved of opportunities at Brisbane, playing just 3 games in 2019, but if we go back to 2018 he reeks of fantasy potential, showing ceiling with a 142 and a 126, plus averaging 7 marks a game in the midfield, including 14 in Round 16 against Carlton. Keep a close eye on the ball magnet, while we are unsure if he will break into the side for Round 1, he does have some potential to be a handy cash cow
2019 was a disaster for the Demons; one of the bright lights of the year was the consistency of Clayton Oliver. After a marginal dip, can he bounce back and post personal best numbers?
PLAYER PROFILE
Name: Clayton Oliver Age: 22 Club: Melbourne Demons Position: Midfield
2019 Highest Score: 161 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy) 175 Vs Gold Coast (SuperCoach) 2019 Average: 105.8 (AFLFantasy) 109.3 (SuperCoach)
It’s hard to believe Clayton Oliver is just 22 years old. It’s incredible to think we still have another potential decade of this midfielder superstar in our fantasy sides.
Last season he had 12 games with 30 possesions or higher. He ranked Second, in the league for contested possessions (16 per game), only Lachie Neale had more. Ranked 4th in Total Clearances, Ranked 7th in Total Tackles 9th in Disposals Per Game
Looking into his AFLFantasy/DreamTeam scores from last season he scored 100 or more in fifteen games of his 22 games. Ten of those hundreds were higher than 110, and he had only four scores that were below 90 all year. His seasonal average of 105 ranks him as the eleventh best by averages for all midfielders. For overall points, he was the tenth highest last season across all lines.
SuperCoach was another excellent season even if it did see a marginal scoring dip. He posted 14 tons across the season, ten of them were 110 or higher and a strong return of four scores over 140. In addition to his stable frequency and ceiling of tons, he had only four scores all year than he dropped below 90. If you were to contrast him to others seasons, he ended up ranked 10th for overall points, seventh for midfielders and eleventh by the average for all midfielders.
Over his past three seasons (hasn’t missed a game) and has been a consistent scoring player in that time. In those 66 games in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he has an average of 105 and scored 38 tons during that time. That a hundred every 57% of games. SuperCoach, the conversion is even stronger! He averages 111 in the past three seasons, has reached the 100 markers in 49 of those matches which are 74% of his games.
Have you heard the myth about Clayton Oliver in AFLFantasy scoring? The tale goes that he doesn’t score hundreds that hurt you. While it’s true that his frequency of 140+ scores isn’t near the likes of Tom Mitchell and Jackson Macrae, his number prove this myth not to be true. Of his previous 32 scores of 100 or more 27 of them have been over 110 and 12 over 120.
He ticks everything you want in a premium. Durable (hasn’t missed a game in three years), has a high frequency of 100’s, a consistently top-scoring floor and shows the capacity to score over 150.
If you believe that the Demons will be better in 2020 and win substantially more games, then the scoring splits of Oliver with scores in wins versus losses is an important variable. Last year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam her averaged 119 as opposed to 102 in losses. A differential of17 points. For Supercoach in wins, Clarry averaged 126 and 104.5 when they lost. An even further difference of 21.5 points
His bye round isn’t short of accessible premium midfield selections. Patrick Cripps, Adam Treloar and Nat Fyfe lead the charge. If his ownership percentage is considerably lower than them, he could be the difference-maker that scores within the ballpark of the more popular pick.
Given it’s his frequency of hundreds more so than the ceiling of tons (which does exist) that is the appeal. Along with durability, Clayton Oliver is a more appealing starting squad option than upgrade. That said, he’s perfectly fine to trade into your side during the season. If he’s not on your preseason watchlist, you need to add him on the list today seriously. Regardless of the format, you play.
DRAFT DECISION
Whether he’s a coaches M1 or M2 selection will largely depend whether you lock away another line player with your first selection. He’s not an opening-round selection but will be a popular second-round pick that might drift as late as the third.
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2019 was a disappointing season for the Swans and for Buddy, from a fantasy footy perspective it’s his lowest seasonal average since 2007. For SuperCoach & AFLFantasy he managed just two scores over 100. The positive is this wasn’t a drastic role change that caused such an unfortunate turn out or the aging decline of a star. Instead, it was persistent injuries that limited his ability to play to his fullest potential.
In SuperCoach he’s priced 28 points below what he delivered in 2018. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam it’s 21 points.
A look into his 2018 season reminds us of his scoring potential. From his 128 games for SuperCoach, he began the year with a 175 against the West Coast Eagles. By seasons end he had eight scores over the ton, four over 120 and three over 160. Additionally, he had three scores between 90-99 and averaged 100.
AFLFantasy/DreamTeam was also a strong season with eight tons (including a 151 for the first game) and an additional three matches between 90-99.
61% of his games in all formats of the game he scored 90 or above this year. Not bad for a player who we’re forking out at the price point of 70.
Since joining the Swans over the past six seasons, he’s got an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam average of 90 and a SuperCoach average of 94. Currently, he’s underpriced by 20 points per game from his career Sydney average.
Before the Swans Christmas break, Lance Franklin was dominating on the track. It can be challenging to get away from the preseason hype from coaches where everyone can sometimes be seen to be ‘flying this preseason.’ However, it seemed evident to anyone who attended the club preseason training that Buddy was back. It was the first time in years that he’d completed preseason training before Christmas
That all changed where earlier this month he was forced to undergo some minor knee surgery which has put his ability to be available for round one in doubt.
2019 was his lowest games tally across his season. Although Buddy has only played every game in a season three times across his career, his recent ability to play has been strong. Between 2016-2018 he has only missed four games, and in two of those seasons, he played every game.
If you were keen on him before the injury, do we have justification for going cool on him, even if it is now as an in-season trade rather than just a starting squad selection?
This is the lowest price he’s been in 12 seasons, based on where he’s ranked as the #55 forward FWD in SuperCoach and 50th in DreamTeam,
Should he get himself available for the opening game of the year, the Swans have a relatively good early fixture with matches against Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast, Carlton, GWS and Brisbane. That’s not a bad opening run For Buddy and Sydney.
Significant premiums on this line from the same bye week are Isaac Heeney, Dustin Martin and Michael Walters. After that, it’s just potential breakout options, not proven players like Buddy.
Whether he’s named round one or not, I like the value of Buddy this year. Targetting him as an upgrade trade could work out even better. That way, I get a chance to observe him play a few games and then opt-in with a trade if I like what I see.
DRAFT DECISION
As the preseason goes on if he’s not looking likely as being available for the Swans in round one then he could slide down peoples draft boards. On potential, he could score as the F1 in a draft side.
I think you could get him at F3 easily in a draft. Maybe even further. At that point on the risk of him, missing games or getting injured is eliminated. A anywhere near fit Buddy is going to deliver an average in the ’90s.
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Lewy & Checkers from Lane Kicking are back with their take on some Collingwood Magpies on their AFLFantasy watchlist.
BREAKOUT: Brayden Sier – $493,000 (MID)
Showed plenty of talent averaging 75.5 and breaking into the side for finals in his first season but was a bit of a let down last year. There is something special about the young fella and he looks the prime replacement in the midfield once Pendlebury and Sidebottom are done, but he is probably just a little awkwardly priced to touch. An interesting fact about Sier, for all his fantasy potential, still yet to crack a ton in his 18 games of AFL
TRACK: Matthew Scharenberg – $495,000 (DEF)
There are probably a few obvious ones you could track at Collingwood, but seeing Scharenberg finally light up in 2020 would be a real feel-good story. Former first-round pick, he has been crippled by injuries only managing 38 games in the last 5 years. When he first came to the Pies he was a tall, strong marking rebound defender who had the versatility to play anywhere on the ground and averaged 22 touches at U/18 level.
Unfortunately, we have never seen the best of Scharenberg, but Collingwoods efforts to persist with him show there must be something special there. I know we are digging deep here but in his second season when he got a nice little run at CHB there was a little 5 game streak where he averaged 93.6. If he can stay fit, build some fitness and gain some confidence in his body he could be a handy little cash cow down back
ROOKIE: Jay Rantall – $192,000 (MID)
Slipped right down the draft order after being a smokey for a late first rounder and most would say Collingwood grabbed a steal at Pick 40. Described as the most athletically ready made player in the draft, just some questions about his skills and efficiency after crossing over from a Basketball background. This is good news for fantasy punters though, in hope that he might get some early games, Rantall averaged 25 touches and 99 fantasy points in the TAC Cup last year so there is some potential there
UNDERDOG: Brayden Maynard $570,000 (DEF)
\This is real left field but there is just something about Maynard that has caught Checkers eye. Averaged 76.8 in 2019, but dished up 87.2 in his last 5 games (including finals). While he seems to be a consistent 60-80 range defender, there have been a couple of big games from Maynard including 130 last year and 144 in 2018. If he can rack up a 144 he must have some form of fantasy potential locked inside of him, just a matter of getting it out more consistently.
Probably doesn’t have the game to rotate through the middle like Jack Crisp, but he can be a handy tackler and rebounder. We don’t expect a huge increase in output but we can’t help but keep his name on the bottom of our watchlist, just one to keep an eye on (especially in draft)
It was a rollercoaster season for those owned Toby Greene in 2019. It started poorly after playing just one game he missed the following five matches with an injury. It wasn’t until round six that he was seen again. Thankfully the longer the season went, the better he got.
Primarily the reason coaches entered into the season with Toby was due to an injury impacted season in 2018 provided immense value on what he’d done over the previous few years.
In 2017 he played 16 of a possible 22 games and that year in AFLFantasy he averaged 91.4. That season he scored 100 or more in just four matches and didn’t drop his scores below 72 all year. While in SuperCoach he averaged 96.1, registered 5 tons, one of which was a 127 and had a season lowest score of 70.
Please make sure you note how strong that average is off such a small number of hundreds, this illustrates to us that although he may not have a consistently high ceiling, his scoring basement will rarely cost you a matchup.
The year prior (2016) was just as strong from a fantasy footy perspective but significantly better regarding games played as he missed just the one game for the season. That year in SuperCoach he managed 10 tons, 3 of which were over 120 and a seasonal average of 90.4. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he posted 8 tons and an average of 92.7
Back to 2019, in addition to an injury-interrupted start, he also was struggling to hit his points-scoring consistency. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he was averaging 80 in first ten games of the year with just 2 tons. For SuperCoach he was averaging 77 with two scores over 100 also.
Round 17 at the MCG, the Giants injury crisis hit its peak. Already Callan Ward, Josh Kelly and tagger Matt deBoer were all out. However, it was also the infamous match the Stephen Coniglio injured his knee and scored a giant donut for coaches. These injuries forced the coaches hands, and Toby was thrown into the midfield.
Over the final six weeks, he scored: 144, 115, 126, 146 142 & 99 at an average of. 128. For SuperCoach he scored; 138, 112, 107, 134, 122 & 115 at an average of 121. That’s an increase avg of 48 points per game in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 44 in SuperCoach.
With the departure of a plethora of forward premiums this year Greene is now our second highest-ranked by averages available in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and sixth for SuperCoach.
Toby Greene doesn’t have a consistent history of playing every game. He misses alot of games, either through injury or suspension. Just this year he missed six games through injury and one with suspension Only twice in his eight seasons has he played 20 games or more.
If the history of missing games is the major obstacle to you selecting him then as such, I believe Toby Greene is someone you either have in your starting squads or not at all someone you look like an upgrade target. Even if he flies out of the gate averaging 95+ over the first eight weeks, the reason you chose not to start him will remain the same.
That being the likelihood of missing games has not changed even if he’s scoring ‘over’ your expectation. The longer he goes without missing games, based on history, the higher the likelihood of him missing games will increase. Yes, history isn’t always a matter of fact repeating, we’ve spoken at length this preseason about players that have a lousy history shouldn’t deter you from selecting them, but rather that you can choose them but do so knowing the possible risk associated.
A common theme across this seasons 50 Most Relevant is the discussion around how GWS structure that midfield. Already we’ve highlightedCallan Ward, Zac Williams and Tim Tarantothis year, and each has that question. For Toby, does he retain that full-time midfield role with the injured stars returning? Unlikely, but given how strong he was through the midfield last year he should still keep a few rotations per quarter.
Many coaches will be starting Lachie Whitfield and Dustin Martin as their first two premium forwards. One thing I’m keen to observe in the preseason is with the value in the forwards and the lack of a clear third-best choice. Will coaches start three premium forwards? Some coaches may hesitate to start that structure for fear of running too heavy in the forwards and missing out in other lines.
One thing is for sure, is if Toby Greene is fit, he has a strong history to suggest he’ll do enough to put himself in the conversation of the top averaging forwards. The question is, will he play enough games to make it count?
DRAFT DECISION
It will be a fascinating year for how people approach drafting forwards this year? Given his rank based on last years averages, he’s going to be the lead forward (F1) for a coach. Once Lachie Whitfield and Dustin Martin are off the draft boards coaches will start to consider him. Some coaches might jump early and pick him in the third round. However, it’s more likely in the following two.
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Tim Taranto was already devloping to be a superstar of the competition heading into 2019, coming off the back of an elite second year he averaged 91 in AFLFantasy for the season. It featured seven scores over the hundred marks including four over 110. While for SuperCoach he averaged 89 and posted 7 tons including three over 110.
The injury to season-long injury to Callan Wardforced him to step up into a mainstay in that midfield. And while Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly also failed to play every game, Taranto becomes the centrepiece of the midfield.
Averaging over 28 possessions a game he rates elite in the league for Tackles, clearances, contested possessions, uncontested possessions and inside ’50s. Not bad for someone who only ticked over 50 games during last year.
From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective last year he increased his averages by 22 points per game from his 2018 numbers. Finished as the fourth-highest total points scorer of the season behind Brodie Grundy, Adam Treloar and Jackson Macrae. Of midfielders, only Jackson Macrae, Adam Treloar and teammate Josh Kelly had a higher seasonal average. From 22 games he had fifteen scores over 100, 7 of these were over 130 and
During the finals series, he scored 113, 66, 122 and 117. In addition to his frequency of hundreds and high ceiling, he had only five scores below 93 all year, nothing below 75.
In SuperCoach he increased his average by 14 points per game from his 2018 average. Taranto finished as the 22nd best points scorer of the season and an average 102 He scored a 100 in 59% of matches (13), and four of these were captaincy good numbers of 130 or higher. In the AFL Finals series, he further enhanced his reputation with SuperCoach scores of 124, 68, 109 and a massive 143 on Grand Final day.
Beyond winning the premiership, everything went right for Tim Taranto last year. While as fantasy coaches we would never wish injuries on anybody, it did force Leon Cameron to adjust his plans. Including in the moves, the need became to find a replacement for Callan Ward after suffering a season-ending knee injury.
What we don’t know, and it’s relevant heading into this season is what impact does the inclusion of his former skipper have on the sharing of fantasy points for Tim and the other midfielders? Would it have made any difference last year or not to his scoring? We can throw out hypothesis and scenarios, but the answer it short is we will never know.
The question marks around the points share of the GWS midfield will mean many will be scared to use him in their starting squads. The key will be to watch the roles, rotations and game style of the Giants during the preseason matches. Also, factor in who (if any) of the stars are missing from that midfield as it could skew your perspective of reality.
For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam scoring, while I hear the concern, I’m unconvinced that he will be impacted substantially. I see him as a perfect unique candidate. He’s coming off the back of 112 in his third season of AFL. Already in this format, he’s among the elite premiums. If his ownership is super low, I could be tempted to adjust my starting squad an include him.
Taranto finds himself in the positively rare position in that he will never get tagged from the opposition. With Lachie Whitfield, Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly in the side you cannot choose to try and negate his influence om the contest and let those three roam free. Yet another positive for those keen on picking him.
In SuperCoach he will likely be an upgrade target with players like his new skipper Stephen Coniglio priced lower who will probably average higher in 2020.
Double T is one of my favourite players in the league and wouldn’t surprise me if for the third season in a row we saw a drastic point-scoring spike.
DRAFT DECISION
Ranked last year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam by averages as a top-four midfielder it’s crazy to think that Tim Taranto might slide beyond the first round. If he replicates his 2019 form, he’ll be a top tier midfielder for the season. If I have a selection late in the first round, I’d be seriously considering him. Surely he’s off all draft boards by the time each coach has made a second selection.
In SuperCoach formats he’ll be selected later given his scoring wasn’t as prolific. That said he’ll start to fly off the draft boards in a similar time to Tim Kelly, Matt Crouch and potentially even a sliding Elliot Yeo. Ranked by average as the 25th midfielder coaches will start to consider him as their M2 if they go look to lock away another line early. Coaches might aim for him as an M3 for those who like drafting midfielders early. I expect between rounds 4-5 he starts appearing as a candidate to be selected.
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