Tag: DPP

2024 AFLFantasy, SuperCoach & DreamTeam Possible Positional Changes
0 0
Read Time:10 Minute, 57 Second

Unlock AFL Fantasy & SuperCoach Success in 2024 with our positional Insights! Explore the potential positional changes for the coming season and optimize your fantasy football strategy from the Coaches Panel. Don’t miss out on the winning edge!

Embed from Getty Images

Maintain Defender Status

Like every season, we’ll lose a couple of good top-end premium options, but we still retain some strong ones. Given their role for their teams deep inside defensive 50, I don’t think anyone would be shocked to see Tom Stewart, James Sicily, Luke Ryan, Nic Newman, and Dan Houston maintain pure defensive status. All found themselves amongst the top dozen options across some formats last year, and you can build a compelling case they’ll all be there again this coming year.

Last year, Harry Sheezel, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Lachie Ash, Lachie Whitfield and Jason Johannisen were among several players who all picked up defensive status during the 2023 season. These five had DPP last year, but I have them all as pure defenders in my forecast for the coming season.

Some pockets of the SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam community have Nick Daicos dropping his DEF/MID status and being just a midfielder, given his increasing midfield time as the year went on. While I can see a time coming (maybe as soon as 2025) when he is an exclusive midfielder, I’ve got some confidence he’ll be available as a DEF/MID heading into this coming season.

I’ve even seen the same pockets of the community suggest that because Hayden Young did move into the Fremantle midfield late in the year, he’ll not maintain his defensive status. But there’s zero chance of that happening; he only spent five games of his 20+ last year in the midfield. It shouldn’t even be enough for him to get DPP; I see that midfield data is not enough to create a DEF/MID, which is at ‘worst’ what he’ll be.

Before we move off the defenders that could maintain this status, it’s important to touch on Jack Sinclair. The St Kilda speedster did pick up his midfield role in 2023 in contrast to the seasons prior, but while some have him touch & go to maintain defensive eligibility, I’m confident he’ll retain it. The main factor is that he had only seven games where he attended over 40% of centre bounces, and just four were above 50%. Yes, he did spend time starting across the wings; while it won’t shock me if he did lose defensive status, I’ve got him heading into 2024 a DEF/MID.

Embed from Getty Images

Gain Defender Status

At first glance, it may not feel relevant, but the new Kangaroo Zac Fisher could be a sneaky option for draft formats and in classic. The former Blue found his feet across half back in the back half of 2023 and posted some more than handy scores. There’ll be some value to be had should he get a comparable role at his new club.

Embed from Getty Images

Lose Defender or Forward Status | MID Only

Many of the previous season’s topline forward eligible options lose this position yearly and become midfielders only. Heading into 2024, it’ll be no different. Unsurprisingly, last year’s best options in our forward lines will all lose DPP and be solely available as a midfielder. Josh Dunkley, Tim Taranto, Errol Gulden, Zak Butters, Connor Rozee & Zak Butters will lead the candidates of former MID/FWD’s heading into the midfield. Some might hold a vague hope that some retain DPP, but the likelihood of that happening is as likely as Christmas Day being cancelled worldwide this year.

There will likely be plenty of others like Jason Horne-Francis that fall away from MID/FWD status into MID. Still, those above six will be the big names that the SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam community will look at in classic.

The upside is you can genuinely build a compelling narrative that they all could still be relevant as a pure midfielder. They all showed they could score in the realms of the best fantasy midfielders in the game; the only difference beyond positional availability is them being considerably less owned than what they were in 2023.

I’m on the fence about what happens with Sam Flanders. But I think his heavy midfield role towards the end of the year might just cost him DPP. If he holds MID/FWD status I can see a world where his preseason hype hits fever pitch.

We’ll also see a few defenders drop out of this status and move purely into the midfield. Adelaide Crows captain Jordan Dawson will lead this crop. He ended last year with an average of attending 70% centre bounces, but from a SuperCoach & AFLFantasy perspective, he would still be someone highly desirable even as a midfielder. He ended last year ranked 4th across all formats for total points, so moving from being a DEF/MID into a straight MID shouldn’t mean his conversation as a relevant option falls away too far.

You can throw Will Day into the mix as a lock for midfield status next year. The rising star Hawk was a breakout star for us last year, but his heavy midfield role will see him lose defensive status. Sam Docherty spent too much time across the wing and through centre bounces to retain his defender status. Should this happen, we’ll see his value in drafts bottom out from the early rounds and make him lowly owned in classic. If he does lose it, he’d certainly be worth keeping an eye on for an in-season DPP allocation. I’m not as convinced, but Angus Brayshaw loses his DEF/MID status to become a midfielder again. I hope I’m wrong, but those midfield numbers kept growing as the year went on.

Much like in the forward line, the pain might be felt in the depth of keeper leagues with guys that became options to play on the field in the backline and are now just playable as midfielders. Chayce Jones, Reuben Ginbey, Tom Atkins and possibly even Darcy Wilmot, who spent plenty of time across the wings for the Lions.

Embed from Getty Images

Maintain Forward Status

The top of the tree for our forward lines will be clipped, but that’s an annual occurrence. The good news is we’ll still have plenty of potentially viable scoring prospects without unpacking who might pick up forward status.

Recently, I posted a video about the new Port Adelaide ruck Ivan Soldo on our YouTube channel. Within it, I discussed the potential scoring upside he might have as the #1 ruck at the Pear, but his split of ruck and forward time last season should help him maintain RUC/FWD. Should he win the ruck battle against Jordan Sweet and hold DPP, then Soldo is a potential topline candidate. Last year, in the games he played without Toby Nankervis, he averaged 92 in AFLFantasy and 105 in SuperCoach. If he can deliver that over a full season, he needs to be looked at regardless of our forward player gains.

Speaking of potential RUC/FWD options, I still have Fremantle’s Luke Jackson maintaining this status. Some will say he only scored well when solo ruck, but that is false. There’s enough scoring upside that for draft formats, at minimum, he could provide some significant value based on the drafting position.

Isaac Henney, Toby Greene, Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton will maintain their forward eligibility. They might not ever be the top 6-10 forwards in classic, but for drafts, they’ll all play valuable roles in how we tier out this area of the ground.

During last season, Western Bulldogs pair Bailey Smith and Jackson Macrae both picked up forward status, and I’m forecasting they walk into 2024 with MID/FWD status remaining intact. The positive here is the potential for significant value. Just 12 months ago, both were coming into a new season as viable starting squad options and seen with some value baked into their price. This upside is even greater after an underwhelming season. Should one or both of these Dogs pick up the previously held midfield minutes, they both have the potential to be the top-scoring forwards across the formats.

I fully expect the new Sydney Swan Taylor Adams to keep the forward status entering into 2024 that he picked up last season. The former Magpie was squeezed out of the midfield rotation for large portions of last year. While it impacted his fantasy output in 2023, it will provide significant value at his price point alongside being forward eligible. If he can get through the coming preseason fit, he should be a key part of the Sydney midfield mix and could be one of the most highly-owned fantasy forwards entering round one.

Nobody will be shocked to see it, but I’ve got Adelaide’s Josh Rachele as a forward this coming year and firmly on my breakout radar. As a second-year player, he averaged 89 in AFLFantasy and 86 in SuperCoach in the opening seven rounds of last year. As the year went on, his midfield minutes and scoring started slowing, but it has provided moments where fantasy coaches can see a pathway forward to him scoring well. Monitor his preseason cause if Josh gets that midfield opportunity again, he could come out of the gate swinging.

Embed from Getty Images

Gain Forward Status

Every year, we lose a bunch of topline forward premiums, and yet we always find a way in our starting squads to at least have that listed populated with a couple of potential replacements. Don’t be surprised if Christian Petracca jags DPP and is available as a MID/FWD in 2024. Heading into the AFL finals, he was right on the ledge of the 35% forward threshold, according to Fantasy Freko. Based on his role in Melbourne’s games, there appears to be no significant push movement. Either way, it’ll be a small percentage gap that means he either maintains his midfield status or becomes a MID/FWD. I think he will sneak over the line and enter the year as the top forward option.

How much value does Champion Data place on Brodie Grundy’s role in the VFL compared to AFL? If it’s purely just the AFL, of the seventeen games he played last year, only three were without Max Gawn, and it’s only when Gawn wasn’t playing that he attended over 55% CBA’s in a single match. I mention that percentage rate because that’s what he’s sitting at for a season summary. If it’s just pure AFL-level data, then he’s right in consideration for gaining DPP and being a RUC/FWD. However, if the VFL data where he played a heavy ruck role is factored in, he will likely be a forward. Plenty will still have Brodie locked into their starting squad conversation regardless of positional gains.

Embed from Getty Images

2023 Draft Class

With the 2023 AFL draft officially over, we’re just weeks away from the announced positions for the coming seasons. Here are my projections of the positions we might see from some of the most relevant prospects.

Harley Reid | MID/FWD
Colby McKercher | MIDFIELD
Zane Duursma | MID/FWD
Jed Walter | FORWARD
Nick Watson | FORWARD
Ryley Sanders | MIDFIELD
Caleb Windsor | MIDFIELD
Dan Curtin | DEFENDER
Ethan Reed | RUCK
Nate Caddy | FORWARD
Connor O’Sullivan | DEFENDER
Phoenix Gothard | FORWARD
Koltyn Tholstrup | MID/FWD
Jake Rogers | MIDFIELD
Jordan Croft | FORWARD
Will Green | RUCK
James Leake | DEFENDER/FORWARD
Darcy Wilson | MIDFIELD
Charlie Edwards | MIDFIELD
William McCabe | DEFENDER
Riley Hardeman | DEFENDER
Cainden Cleary | MIDFIELD
Harry Demattia | MIDFIELD

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
Happy
Happy
0 %
Sad
Sad
0 %
Excited
Excited
0 %
Sleepy
Sleepy
0 %
Angry
Angry
0 %
Surprise
Surprise
0 %
Possible DPP’s | Round Twelve
0 0
Read Time:11 Minute, 49 Second

Before rounds 6, 12 and 18, the gang at Champion Data add some new DPP into the game. After the round, the first list of names and positions will be released. Historically, players need at least 35% to be considered for a new position allocation and at least four games played. So let’s see which players are locked, close or have no chance of getting DPP.

Embed from Getty Images

ADD DEFENDER

Jayden Short

If you’ve tracked the publicly available data hoping to gain insights on future DPPs, seeing Jayden Short attending 67% of centre bounces last weekend isn’t good news. Over a week, he’s gone from someone I would’ve branded as ‘safe’ to gaining DEF status, as now to someone on the borderline. Currently sitting at 34% as a defender, he’s agonisingly close to the trigger of 35% to get the positional allocation. He might just miss out if we have another match like this against Port Adelaide on Sunday afternoon. Sadly, the injury to Jacob Hopper appears to have affected a midfield rotation shuffle for Richmond, and Short has seen a spike. Watch his role on Sunday with interest. He’s a chance for DEF/MID status, but no certainty. 

Embed from Getty Images

Callum Mills

There was a period a few weeks ago when the Sydney Co-Captain was on track to gain defensive status. He was playing down back to cover the injury gaps to Dane Rampe and the McCartin brothers. While the chance was small after playing a heavy midfield role in round eight, any hope was dashed after suffering a calf injury early in round nine against the Dockers. So scrap him from the list. He won’t be getting DEF status heading into round twelve. And given the length of injury layoff he won’t get a positional gain in 2023.

Embed from Getty Images

Dylan Williams

When the 2023 season concludes, and you review the year in hindsight, many will realise that having Dylan Williams on your side will have proven to be vitally important. And that’s for more than just his cash generation, as good as it’s been. Rather the forward has redeveloped himself and his game to become a central part of Port Adelaide’s back six. As a result, I’ve marked him down as a certainty to pick up DEF status and become a DEF/FWD. This will become crucial for us during the multi-byes and allow remarkable squad versatility until it’s time to trade him out at round fifteen. 

Embed from Getty Images

ADD MIDFIELD

Jack Sinclair

Traditionally, players gaining MID status are some of the least relevant gains because they need to create a pathway to a higher scoring avenue within your 22. However, what the addition of midfield status does is create versatility and flexibility across your classic and draft sides.

Jack Sinclair has had an increasing presence at centre bounces for St Kilda. Impressively he’s getting enough time across half-back to pick up some of those uncontested possessions and marks and keep his scoring in the top tier of our available defenders. Over the past five weeks, his attendance varying from just over 20% right up towards over 60%. To gain midfield status, he’ll need a game that’s pushing the 50% of midfield time, he’s still determining, but he’s in the conversation. If he does get it, this, alongside his price post-bye, making him ripe for the picking, should see his ownership skyrocket heading into round thirteen.

Embed from Getty Images

Chayce Jones

Cards on the table, I’m a Crows supporter. And I thought Chayce Jones was headed for the trade table or, even worse, a delisting at the end of 2023. Sadly, beyond his first dozen games, he’d been unable to showcase the potential that made him a top-ten draft selection. That’s all changed! What he’s been able to do over the start of this season has given him a career revival.

The former lockdown defender has found a home across the opposite wing to Lachie Sholl, where his toughness and gut running is crucial to the Crows ball movement. His value to fantasy coaches is with his defender status, but especially in drafts, the DEF/MID status could create some positional versatility, especially if you play through the bye rounds.

Embed from Getty Images

Jake Stringer

Champion Data are the team behind the scenes that determine these positions. They’ve stated that a player’s position at centre bounces is a key factor in positional allocation. Over the past four weeks, Jack Stringer has attended 80%, 55%, 38% & 88% of centre bounces. As a result, one more game in this data territory should mean he gains MID/FWD status. Much like Jones above, his value is in drafts as a forward. However, the DPP could help get players on the field if your draft league plays through the byes. 

Embed from Getty Images

Nick Daicos

The number one defender in the game by average & points has seen incremental growth in time in the midfield over the past five weeks. Nick Daicos has attended a variation of centre bounces from 17% to 63%. Like Sinclair, he’ll need a heavy midfield game this weekend to get DEF/MID status, and while it’s unlikely, if we see a midfield-heavy game as he did against the Crows (63%), it might just tip him into the threshold to get it.

Any DPP gain can add flexibility and versatility, and with the byes starting next week, should he (or anyone else) gain a position, it could unlock some moves for your squad.

Embed from Getty Images

ADD FORWARD

Christian Petracca

Sometimes, as you head into the round ahead of the DPP movements, the data is overwhelmingly compelling, and the position status is guaranteed. Unfortunately, that isn’t the case with Christian Petracca. He’s close, but he will need a fair share of time starting inside forward fifty this weekend to guarantee the status allocation. CP5 has always had a level of time forward, but this year the split is tantalizingly close to him returning to our forward lines.

During the preseason series of the 50 most relevant, I flagged the potential of him gaining forward status. And it’s a reminder for us again that in our starting squad and early season trading cadence, we need to create space for this level of elite scoring that can become part of the game. Should this MID/FWD status land, between him and a few other gains, we might see a complete revolution of what is deemed the ‘top six’ forward for the 2023 season.

With the uncertainty around Clayton Oliver playing this week (and beyond), I’m not sold; we’ll get the heavy-forward time game needed for this DPP to pop.

Embed from Getty Images

Sam Walsh

Lock this one up and throw away the key. This time next week, you’ll be able to select Sam Walsh as a forward. Since his return from injury, he’s been sensational, regularly posting large tons seemingly at will across all formats. The primary causation for the move has been to ease him back into the rigours of AFL.

Regardless of the causation, the positive outcome is that he could pick up forward status. He’s currently on the borderline of it, but as long as Michael Voss doesn’t release him back into a heavy midfield (like last week) role, he should pick up MID/FWD status.

The huge upside with him is that regardless of his future midfield/forward split, he’s shown his scoring is unaffected. So when you combine the current trend and his historical pedigree, we might be about to receive the new top forward by an average of 2023. While the upside is you’ll get a top-tier premium midfield in the forward line; the challenge will be finding the cash to land him.

Embed from Getty Images

Max Gawn

Much like his teammate in Christian Petracca, the possible gain of forward status from either Max Gawn or Brodie Grundy was telegraphed all preseason due to the Demons two headed ruck monsters. To date, Max has become the one that Melbourne has used more forward, with Brodie taking the lead ruck role. Currently, the Demons skipper is sitting right on the 35% threshold. If Gawn can hold this percentage for one more week will get Gawn as an RUC/FWD.

His addition could be an absolute game-changer for multiple reasons. First, an early-season injury has impacted his price point to insanely low space. His round 14 bye round for him means you can maximise him through the rucks in the byes alongside any combination of Rowan Marshall, Tim English or Sean Darcy you have. Third, his potential DPP flexibility could open up loopholes and depth coverage without having to make trades. And lastly, his non-injury-affected average is 93 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102 in SuperCoach. All in all, if Gawn gains it, this could be the biggest addition of the year!

Embed from Getty Images

Jackson Macrae

One week can make a significant difference. This time last week, I had Jackson Macrae as a 50/50 split of gaining MID/FWD status or missing it. After his win against the Crows on the weekend, I’ve got him heading north of 75% confidence picking up forward status. What’s been the cause of the growth? Data! In the period of one round, he’s gone from 35% as a forward upwards to 40%, according to the Herald Sun. Much like others on this list, his pending position status will be determined entirely on his role in the Bulldogs midfield this weekend.

Embed from Getty Images

Will Ashcroft

Over the past few seasons since DPP gains have become an evolution, we’ve often seen high-end midfield talent gain FWD or DEF status as the clubs look to build their bodies and fitness to handle the rigours of AFL football. Players like North Melbourne’s Tom Powell or Hawthorn’s Connor MacDonald have had this happen over the journey. This isn’t and won’t be the case with Will Ashcroft. He’s spent some time as a forward, but he’s been used most of his game as a wingman and a centre-bounce midfielder. He’s zero chance of getting an additional position. Sorry to burst the bubble. 

Embed from Getty Images

Dion Prestia

Two weeks ago, I was growing in confidence that we’d see Dion Prestia pick up MID/FWD status. The Tigers premiership midfielder had been one of the pieces that the coaching staff had used to create room for Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto to become the primary two midfielders at centre bounces. While the possible gain wouldn’t have added classic coaches, it sure would’ve recouped some of the loss of draft capital for coaches who play draft. Instead, due to this forward time increase, his scoring declined.

However, due to an injury to Jacob Hopper, I suspect the trend of last weekend will continue when his CBA’s start to return to normal. As much as I’d love to give some hope to owners, I don’t think it’s coming. Barring a drastic turn of events this weekend, he’ll maintain his pure midfield status.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
Happy
Happy
0 %
Sad
Sad
0 %
Excited
Excited
0 %
Sleepy
Sleepy
0 %
Angry
Angry
0 %
Surprise
Surprise
0 %
Possible DPP’s | Round Six
0 0
Read Time:9 Minute, 36 Second

Before rounds 6, 12 and 18, the gang at Champion Data add some new DPP into the game. After the round, the first list of names and positions will be released. Historically, players need at least 35% to be considered for a new position allocation and at least four games. So let’s see which players are locked, close or have no chance of getting DPP.

Embed from Getty Images

ADD DEFENDER

Harry Sheezel

He’s the #1 forward in the game and is one of the easiest positional gains ever. Harry Sheeezel has had one of the greatest starts we’ve ever seen from a first-year player. The more interesting conversation is when we should start viewing him as a ‘premium’ in our teams for the season. The beauty of this move is it now releases the pressure for coaches at D6.

Jack Ziebell

Jack Ziebell played exclusively as a defender like his teammate above in 2023. This role is identical to the one he held back in 2021, where he is taking kick in’s, controlling the play, and he became an important player in fantasy coaches’ success. Much like that year, he’s started as a midprice option delivering enough to be considered a premium on the current trends. A great early-season riser that’s about to become a DEF/FWD. 

Lachie Whitfield

In the offseason, Adam Kingsley telegraphed multiple role moves for the Giants established stars; one was for Lachie Whitfield to get back to his distributing role across halfback. We’ve seen him play in this role for the entirety of the season.

He is ripe for the picking! Not just because he’s getting DEF status allocated alongside his midfield eligibility, but against the Bombers, he started to get his old scoring game going and began to look like his former premium self. With many chasing the value of Tom Stewart or looking to get up and into Jordan Dawson, James Sicily or Nick Daicos, some astute owners might be getting a bargain should Whitfield be able to return to his 100+ averaging scoring in this role.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera

I love what NVM is doing at St Kilda and can see him becoming one of my favourite players. He rarely makes a poor decision and has the skills to back up his elite footy IQ. So it’s no surprise to see Ross Lyon move him into the back six and allow his skillset to propel his side forward out of the defensive half. His relevance is mostly in drafts, but for current owners, he’ll become a helpful boost in your backline stocks. If he’s sitting in the player pool, he’ll be well worth picking up if you can ahead of his likely DPP addition.

Become a Patron!

Cam Guthrie

Flying under the radar in the DPP conversation is Geelong premiership player Cam Guthrie. The absence of Mitch Duncan and Tom Stewart has meant that the Cats coaching staff have flipped the magnets around and made some structural moves. One of those has been with Cam joining his brother Zach across halfback.

The return of Duncan & Stewart might tip him back into the midfield unit, but if he’s done enough to jag DEF status, this could be a brilliant addition. Last week against the Hawks, he saw a move back towards the midfield tile. He’s got multiple years of averaging over 100, and given his price point, he might be someone to grab immediately.

Lachie Ash

Another Giants ‘Lachie’ finds himself in the DPP discourse. Lachie Ash has the speed for days, and alongside Whitfield, he’s part of the revamped rebounding core of GWS under Adam Kingsley. He’s had a few good weeks recently and would be a handy gain in draft leagues. I’d be surprised if he’s not awarded DEF/MID status. 

Kane Farrell

This one is more draft and daily fantasy relevant, but Kane Farrell should pick up defender status. Late in 2022 and throughout this preseason, we saw the pear happily using him across halfback. This role has resulted through the season proper as Port have looked to shake up their back six. Depending on the depth of your draft league, he could become a helpful onfield option while, at worst, providing some bench depth. 

Embed from Getty Images

ADD MIDFIELD

Will Day

So far, one of the season’s picks has been with Will Day as a midprice option in our backlines. The former halfback flanker has displayed his skills, competitiveness & workrate as he’s moved into an inside midfield role under the new-look Hawthorn midfield. He’s trending towards scoring enough to be someone we could consider holding for the season. Still, regardless of that discussion, the addition of midfield status and transition to a DEF/MID is a certainty. Lock it in!

Josh Rachele

One of the most exciting young players in the league is Josh Rachele. The Crows star is spending an increasing number of attendances at centre bounces, where he’s regularly at 30%-50% across the match. The club are trying to maximise his impact to win clerances. He then slides forward and creates chaos alongside Izak Rankine for opposition defenders. Like Will Day above and any other midfield gains we do pick up, it’s more squad versatility than anything else that’s gained. He’s not highly owned in classic, but he’s had a monster four weeks for owners in the draft and daily fantasy. 

Darcy Wilmot

The young Lion is listed as a defender but has been playing most of the season across Brisbane’s wings. So throw him the DEF/MID status. It’ll be handy having the likes of Wilmot, Day, Ginbey & to a lesser extent, the Chesser and Constable all being eligible to be flipped through the midfield or backlines as necessary.

Jordan Dawson

He has spent the past two weeks playing a heavy centre-bounce midfield role. But even with another week in the role, it’s too small of a sample size for him to gain midfield status. He’s moire likely to get it heading into round 12.

Embed from Getty Images

ADD RUCK

Charlie Comben

I’m not sold that this DPP falls his way, but Charlie Comben has been the secondary ruck option behind Todd Goldstein. In addition, he spent a good chunk of round one as the lead ruck after Tristan Xerri went down injured. He’s got a few owners in SuperCoach, and the RUC/FWD DPP could be handy for them. However, he might be worth a look in deeper draft leagues or category leagues, especially with the volume of ruck injuries we’ve already seen this year. 

Embed from Getty Images

ADD FORWARD

Christian Petracca

There’s been some hope in the community that CP5 would get MID/FWD status during the season. I was hoping for it too, but the data doesn’t indicate it’s coming. Despite spending sometime forward this week against West Coast and kicking multiple goals, he’d still attended an average of 71% of centre bounces over the first three games. There will need more than a full game inside forward 50 to move the DPP needle. Sorry!

Bailey Smith

Take this one to the bank. This time next week, we’ll have Bailey Smith eligible as a MID/FWD. He was a fraction away from having it in the preseason, but his MID/FWD split has been over 50% in the forward half. The resulting heavy forward time has seen a dint to his scoring, with one ton in AFLFantasy and an average of 88, while in SuperCoach, he’s going at 83 and has posted just one ton. In a few weeks, he’ll likely hit his basement and will rightly be someone many will target as part of upgrade season.

Jackson Macrae

A few weeks ago, I thought Jackson Macrae was a real shot at getting forward status added. He regularly attended only 40% of CBA’s, and the rest of the time was playing as a high half-forward for the Dogs. However, I wonder if he will gain forward status after last week. It’ll take a significant change from Luke Beveridge and potentially an exclusive forward role this week against Port Adelaide for him to get MID/FWD status. It’s still a chance, but it’s unlikely. 

Taylor Adams

Since Taylor Adams was traded to Collingwood, he’s been a staple part of the Magpies midfield when he’s been available for selection. However, in 2023 the vice-captain is yet to attend 50% of centre bounces in a single game. The move out of the midfield core has been largely due to the arrival of Tom Mitchell as he’s moved to the fifth rotation spot. As a result, he’s splitting his time between the midfield and the Pies forward half. The lack of midfield time has hurt his scoring, so even with a DPP addition, he’s not someone you’d be considering in classic. Although, in draft leagues, it’s a different discussion, I suspect he’ll move from coaches benches to become a fieldable forward and likely strengthen your overall scoring power. 

Cam Mackenzie

After attending sixteen centre bounces in round one, Cam Mackenzie has yet to attend a combined sixteen between rounds 2-4. The young Hawk has shown moments of brilliance in his first month of AFL. But he has started to play more as a half-forward as Day, Nash & Ward have increased their midfield presence. He’s one of the most highly owned cash cow midfielders, and the potential DPP would add some further forwardline depth & possibly add some increased life on our sides.

Zaine Cordy

I’ll be clear. This isn’t draft-relevant, daily fantasy relevant or classic-relevant. But Zaine should get FWD status added. So much has been made of the Saints lack of talls in the forward line, resulting in Cordy being moved forward. He’s not worth considering, but the DPP addition is warranted.

Ben Keays

Late last year, we saw Matthew Nicks deploy Ben Keays as part of the Crows forward line. The thought process was that Ben could use his endurance running to get up and down the ground and become an extra midfielder around the ground. While also using his defensive ability to hold the opposition’s best rebounder to account. The probable addition of MID/FWD means he moves from an ‘underperforming’ midfielder to likely a team’s second-best forward. A worthy DPP gain should the gang at Champion Data see fit. 

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
Happy
Happy
0 %
Sad
Sad
0 %
Excited
Excited
0 %
Sleepy
Sleepy
0 %
Angry
Angry
0 %
Surprise
Surprise
0 %
#1 Most Relevant | Josh Dunkley
0 0
Read Time:7 Minute, 48 Second

After a failed attempt to leave the Bulldogs a few seasons ago, Josh Dunkley got his wish and found his way to a footballing life outside the kennel. As a Lion, I believe he’s the most relevant player in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam for 2023. 

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Josh Dunkley
Age: 26
Club: Brisbane Lions
Position: Midfield/Forward

2022 Highest Score: 
139 Vs West Coast (AFLFantasy)
155 Vs Fremantle (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
189 Vs Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2019)
202 Vs Melbourne | SuperCoach (2019)

2022 Average: 
108.8 (AFLFantasy)
108.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $596,400
AFLFantasy Price: $963,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $987,400

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Josh Dunkley is one of the most enjoyable players to own in fantasy footy. The reason is he finds a way to score through every column imaginable. In reality, he is one of the most well-rounded midfielders in the game. Dunks can win the contested ball, applies high defensive pressure, is a strong tackler, gets into space to win the uncontested ball and is a super overhead mark for his size.

Even though Dunks is now on a new side and within a new structure, his scoring past can give us an insight into his potential scoring future. Last season he scored eighteen AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons. That’s four games all year that he didn’t hit triple digits. Six of those tons were 120 or higher, including five over 130. He had just two scores below 80 all year on his way to averaging 108.7. He ranked eighth for averages and sixth for points. He scored more than Lachie Neale, Clayton Oliver, and Jackson Macrae and was under 30 points away from Touk Miller, who finished fourth.

Last year we had some great in-season DPP gains in the forward line, including Luke Paker, Bailey Smith and Marcus Bontempelli. Yet Dunkley was still higher than these guys in averages and total points. He was clear and supreme the best forward for 2022.

In SuperCoach, he posted fifteen tons. Seven were above 120, five were above 130, and his top three scores were 142, 143 & 155. He had two additional scores above 90, and in just four games, his scoring dipped under 80. By the year’s closing he was ranked 15th in SuperCoach for total points and 23rd by averages.

Before injuring his shoulder in 2021, he was the hottest scoring player across all game formats. Over the season’s first six rounds, he averaged 115 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 129 in SuperCoach. If you didn’t own him, luck stopped him from running away with your season. He’s got the scoring capability within him to go back. In 2019 his scoring pedigree of Dunkley was first seen. Over his final thirteen games of that season, he scored twelve tons and, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, averaged 125.3 and 129.9 for SuperCoach.
You don’t have to pick and choose the data trends from 2021 or 2019 to showcase that Dunkley has the scoring pedigree to match it with the top options across the formats. For example, in the first seven weeks of 2022, he averaged 121 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 118 in SuperCoach. While in the last month of the season, he averaged 115 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 125 in SuperCoach.
At the end of the 2020 AFL season, Josh requested a trade to Essendon. One of the primary motivators around it was a desire to have a permanent position in the midfield. With a successful move to Brisbane two years on, he’s now got the chance to prove to the AFL world why he wanted the opportunity to become a permanent midfielder.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

He was recruited for a purpose! That’s what Brisbane has done by trading for the services of Josh Dunkley. He has been targeted to add a physical and a skills combination mix that the Lions midfield needs to improve. While the team have options through the centre bounces, they are one of the smaller midfield going around. Lachie Neale is only 178cm, Jarryd Lyons is 184cm, and Hugh McCluggage is 185cm. However, Josh is 191cm. His height, strength and physical presence will make a significant impact from the first bounce.

Alongside that, Dunkley offers something unique to the midfield options. His combination of elite contested footy alongside his tackling pressure will enable both him and his midfield teammates to thrive. Last year the Lions ranked 12th in the AFL for tackles and had just one player average over five per game. Last year Josh averaged 6.1 per game and was ranked 13th in the league in this stat column.

Dunkley will receive a minimum of 65% of centre bounce attendance, and this isn’t just because of what he adds to the midfield mix. It’s also because of the Lions forward structures. Even before the offseason addition of Jack Gunston, they already had a stacked forward line. On their day, Eric Hipwood and Joe Daniher are damaging talls. Then you’ve got some devastating smalls in the live wires of Zac Bailey and Charlie Cameron. Throw in Gunston plus the rotations from Linc McCarthy, Dayne Zorko, and Cam Rayner, and now opposition coaches will have headaches for days trying to stop this team. As handy as Dunkley is when forward, there is no room for him outside of rotation management.

What’s great about Dunkley is he can skip bulk CBAs to score well anyway. For example, in round seven against Essendon last year, he attended only 23% of centre bounces but still posted a 130+ score across the formats. Two weeks later, he scored over 110 with just 24% CBAs, and a further two weeks beyond that, he scored over 135 and attended just 32% of centre bounces.

Is there a narrative for why you’d go against selecting him in your starting squad? There are a few. Firstly, you believe he’ll have a slower start to the season. The midfield mix will take time to find a rhythm, and you think Dunkley will score below 100 over these first few weeks. Additionally, you look at the Brisbane early fixture and see some tough matchups early. In round one, they play Port Adelaide, who was historically one of the harder teams to score against. Additionally, it’s a clash against his former team in round three. And based on previous comments he’s made, I suspect the Dogs players will be ready to bite.

It’s banking for many things to go your way while 53% of AFLFantasy, 65% of DreamTeam and 63% of SuperCoach are backing him. In reality, by not starting him, you are cheering for an injury or something bad to happen to him, like a suspension or a concussion. But the reality is that you will want him at some point in the season. So why not eliminate the risk and possible headache and start with him?

Whenever a player is clear and supreme, the best option in his line, I start them. He doesn’t have to increase his scoring either to do that. Even a hold is a jump down to the next best on the known forwards. I’m all for taking a risk, but opting out of Dunkley is unnecessary.

So why is Dunkley at #1 on my 50 most relevant? In essence, it’s pretty simple. I could build a narrative case that every player didn’t have to be selected. In theory, you could find someone else to replicate a comparable scoring outcome in your starting squad or upgraded plans. With Josh Dunkley, given his position, his scoring pedigree, and his ownership, I couldn’t justify or advocate a good reason not to select him.

DRAFT DECISION

Where Josh Dunkley goes on the draft day will be determined by the format you choose to draft within. What will stay the same is that he’s the first forward selected off draft boards. For AFLFantasy scoring formats, he’s right in the mix for the #1 pick overall. And personally, if I had that selection, I’d be picking him there. However, in SuperCoach, the conversation is more open for the top pick. Passing up the handful of 120+ midfielders is a challenge. But if he doesn’t go in the first handful of selections, I don’t see a world where he’s still on in the second round. 

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say on our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
Happy
Happy
0 %
Sad
Sad
0 %
Excited
Excited
0 %
Sleepy
Sleepy
0 %
Angry
Angry
0 %
Surprise
Surprise
0 %
#6 Most Relevant | Tim Taranto
0 0
Read Time:8 Minute, 9 Second

The arrival of Tim Taranto has two significant impacts. One is for Richmond’s chances of delivering another premiership in this era. The second is for the fantasy football community, as we could have one of the best scoring options available as a forward. 

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tim Taranto
Age: 25
Club: Richmond Tigers
Position: Midfield/Forward

2022 Highest Score: 
128 Vs Sydney (AFLFantasy)
121 Vs Fremantle (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
156 Vs North Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2019)
144 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2019)

2022 Average: 
95.5 (AFLFantasy)
91.4(SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $503,100
AFLFantasy Price: $846,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $867,000

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

The trading for Tim Taranto is excellent news if you’re a Richmond fan. Not just because he’s a high-calibre player but because it means the club should buck the trend of embracing a full rebuild after a successful premiership era. Taranto’s arrival is significant because it stalls any talk of rebuilding. Still, it also adds some significant strength that all too often depended on Dion Prestia’s health. Last year, Jayden Short and Shai Bolton were the club’s third and fourth most-used players at centre bounces. Now Tim, alongside the addition of Jacob Hopper, adds a significant change of personnel and squad depth through the midfield.

This isn’t just great news for Tiger fans but the fantasy AFL community. Over multiple seasons at the Giants, the scoring pedigree of Tim Taranto has been on full display. But only when he’s been allowed to play heavily as a centre-bounce midfielder has he shown over numerous years he can score.

He first emerged as a genuine premium when as a MID/FWD in his second season, he averaged 90 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 88 in SuperCoach. The following season in 2019, he emerged as a genuine premium when her averaged 112.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102 in SuperCoach.

During this 2019 season, he scored fifteen AFLFantasy tons, seven of which over 130 highlighted his ability to deliver a scoring ceiling. That same season in SuperCoach, he registered a ton in thirteen matches. His 2021 saw him in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam average of 107.7. He scored fourteen tons, seven of them were above 120, and in an additional five games, he scored 90 or above. That’s him scoring 90+ in 86% of matches. By the year’s closing, he’s ranked 15th for total points. For SuperCoach, his year returned twelve tons, three of them over 120 and an additional four scores over 90. Positively, one of his most significant scores came when he played a 100% forward role and scored a 130+ against the Tigers.

We haven’t even spoken about his 2022 year. From his sixteen games, he scored seven tons in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, four of those were over 120. He had three additional scores over 90 and four scores under 80. He averaged 95.5 and is currently ranked third amongst all eligible forwards.

While in SuperCoach, he posted six tons, with the highest being 121 against Fremantle. He had two additional scores between 90-99, and his scoring dipped under 80 on five occasions. His average of 91.3 places him as the ninth-best forward by average.

Here’s the crazy thing, he only attended over 50% of centre bounces in eight of his sixteen games last year and never attended more than 59%. There was also no correlation between those games where he attended 50% or higher CBAs related to a stronger score. Tim had three games where he averaged under 40% CBAs but still scored tons across the formats.

It’s quite simple if Taranto is allowed to be a centre-bounce midfielder, he should be on our radars. However, he still presents some value in the Richmond, largely fantasy football purgatory system. Why? Because Tim is a strongly-rounded midfielder. Not only is he a high-volume accumulator, but he’s also a powerful tackler and a damaging forward of the ball in front of goals. His disposal efficiency is an area where he can be criticised, but in the Tigers system, where a ‘surge’ mentality of moving the ball forward is the focus, he should only succeed.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Richmond wasn’t great last year. The aura they once had of being impossible to defeat started to fade. Why? Because the players, the roles and the game style that had served them so well for the previous few seasons were now starting to get picked apart and exposed by opposition teams. It’s why the Tigers identified, prioritised and paid a heavy price in contracts and draft capital to secure Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto.

The club has identified and now secured centre bounce specialists and clearance bulls who will aid the midfield immediately. Without hesitation, Taranto will be played as primarily a centre-bounce midfielder. His addition allows them to play the likes of Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton as impact midfielders, but predominantly in the forward half, where their possession impact can be at its most.

One of the things I often preach through the fifty most relevant is narrative consistency. For example, some preach that Tom Mitchell at Collingwood is a certainty to go 110+ because he’s got a proven scoring history and now a defined midfield role. But that same crowd say Tim Taranto cannot score well despite a comparable situation. I don’t see how you can take the same narrative in two potentially comparable situations and come up with opposite outcomes unless you allow confirmation bias to filter into your statistical narrative. Stay consistent with your processing. If Taranto is volatile, so is Mitchell.

Ownership can and does play a factor. Once a player hits a certain threshold, the risk is no longer on those owning but those going against a popular premium. Normally I have the threshold at about 50% format ownership. When premiums have that percentage level, there’s only pain and very little to gain by going against the crowd that sharply. At the time of writing, Taranto’s current ownership is 49% in SuperCoach, 57% DreamYeam and 49% AFLFantasy. To me, he’s hit that tipping point and going against him presents a significant risk.

What’s the upside with Tim? I believe in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam; he’s got between 10-20 proven points per game of upside. In SuperCoach, he’s got the upside of 10 proven points per game. He is one of only three forwards capable of matching Josh Dunkley’s scoring. What’s the downside? He holds his current scoring range and stays top 5-10 forward. Yet again, the upside outweighs any downside to me.

Over the past few years, we have seen Taranto suffer multiple injury concerns. In just 2022 alone, he struggled to overcome a back complaint while also suffering a concussion. Additionally, in his six seasons of AFL, he’s had only two where he’s played a full season and just three seasons where he’s played 20+ matches. And while injury history is a concern, he’s currently having an uninterrupted preseason, and ultimately, that’s all we can ask from him.

Remember what we always preach about any player’s injury history. If anything, such concerns are why to consider him in your starting squad and not as an upgrade target. If you start with them, you can bank all the scores they deliver. And with every passing game, the likelihood of injury will only increase. However, suppose you trade into an injury ‘risk’. In that case, you run the gauntlet of not just missing his good scores that attracted you to make them an upgrade, but rather your likelihood of trading into that injury is higher with every game past. Starting these ‘injury-prone’ players is the best way to offset the risk. If an injury does occur, you have banked every good score available but also spent just one trade, not multiple, on removing him from your side.

If you can’t tell, I’m bullish on Tim this year, and barring an injury, he’ll be in my starting squad across all formats.

DRAFT DECISION

The first forward off the draft boards will be Josh Dunkley. Across the formats, he’s my consensus #1 overall pick. But where Tim Taranto goes will depend on two variables, the format you play and if you have captains ‘on.’

In AFLFantasy, he’s a natural first-round selection but will go later in the opening round if captains are on, as people will elect to go for a ‘safer’ midfield guy. For SuperCoach, I have him heading off draft boards early in the second round.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say on our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
Happy
Happy
0 %
Sad
Sad
0 %
Excited
Excited
0 %
Sleepy
Sleepy
0 %
Angry
Angry
0 %
Surprise
Surprise
0 %
#16 Most Relevant | Connor Rozee
0 0
Read Time:6 Minute, 48 Second

One of the most remarkable in-season fantasy football turnarounds came from Connor Rozee. From being in the dog house to winning the club’s best & fairest, the move into the midfield was sensational for both his confidence and his fantasy football output. The benefit of the slow scoring start is we have a forward premium with some inbuilt value. Are you on board in 2023?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Connor Rozee
Age: 23
Club: Port Adelaide Power
Position: Midfield/Forward

2022 Highest Score: 
144 Vs Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
162 Vs Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
144 Vs Adelaide | AFLFantasy (2022)
162 Vs Adelaide | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average: 
88.1 (AFLFantasy)
93.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $513,800
AFLFantasy Price: $780,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $799,700

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It could have been a better start for Port Adelaide or Connor Rozee. Over the opening month, they had yet to win a game, and many called for Port to drop Connor as he struggled to impact the games by playing deep inside the Power forward lines. However, by the end of the season, he’d have turned it around that he was named in the 2022 All-Australian squad, won the club B&F and picked up 14 Brownlow Medal votes.

The club significantly changed from round five by throwing Rozee into the midfield. The move happened more out of necessity, with Ollie Wines missing the clash against the Carlton. But from then on, he was sensational. His speed, class and poise were on full display, adding a new dimension to the Power midfield.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 88 across the season, which places him as the sixth-highest-ranked forward available to us. He scored nine tons, including 125 and 144, in the season’s final round. He delivered nine scores under 80, but four of them were his opening month of the year.

For SuperCoach, he averaged 93.3 across the year and posted nine tons, and all three of his scores over 120 were monsters! A 153, 154 & 162! His scoring dipped below 80 in nine matches, but like in AFLFantasy, four were before his role changed.

The real story is what happened after the role change. From round five onwards, he scored nine tons across the formats and averaged 97.7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102.6 in SuperCoach. As a reference point, ranking that eighteen-week average compared to the other top forwards, he’d be ranked as the third forward in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and second in SuperCoach.

As strong as that data trend is, there’s more upside. In the final eleven games after the bye, he averaged 101.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 106.8 in SuperCoach. And in the last seven matches of the year, he averaged 110 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 112 in SuperCoach.

He’s shown glimpses of his fantasy pedigree over the three previous seasons, with multiple tons and good stretches of games going 80+. But 2022 was different; he did this as a midfielder more than as a crafty forward who occasionally pushes up the flanks.

The primary attraction behind selecting Rozee is that he’s shown the capacity to score at the top end of the forwards but to do so at a haircut of the same price point. Anytime we get some value and save some coin without compromising on our scoring potential is always a win. It allows us to reinvest that cash into some other players and improve our scoring in the totality of our squad.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Everything about Connor Rozee lends itself to the narrative that he’s clearly on an upward trajectory to becoming a premium forward selection for us this season. The combination of value + upside is why so many coaches are starting him this year. At the time of writing, he’s in 36% of SuperCoach, 41% of DreamTeam and 42% of AFLFantasy sides. Those are staggeringly high numbers. I get the appeal, but that is your level for a make-or-break guy in your starting squad. I’m not convinced fading Connor from your starting squad will ruin your season.

Have you been listening to these accompanying podcasts? Over the past few days, Rids has made some valid points on several players that can take a season away from you. However, as good as Rozee could and should be, I’m not sold he has yet shown the ability to take a season away from you. So, are you choosing to get him for value and skimping coin on investing in either Stephen Coniglio, Tim Taranto or Josh Dunkley? Or Can he be at their level?

We can only start so many forward premiums, and we need to create space for variable change should some big names appear to pick up DPP. So to start Rozee, the belief is that you believe he’ll be close enough; if not, score himself enough to become a topline forward option this year.

What should provide coaches with some additional confidence in selecting him isn’t just the fact he’s been having an elite preseason through the midfield. But Port Adelaide has invested seriously in the forward line in the offseason. The addition of Junior Rioli brings a smart, crafty forward into the mix with a dynamic trio of tall forwards. With Junior coming in alongside Orazio Fantasia & Sam Powell-Pepper, it adds some depth immediately. Throw in some more forward rotations from Travis Boak and a developing youngster in Jason Horne-Francis, and it starts to fill out nicely without Connor. This means that Port can now choose to place Connor there when desired, not out of necessity—freeing him up to take up some more slack through the midfield.

Sometimes, we weaponise statistics and data to suit our narrative in the fantasy community. And in this case, the statistics indicate the potential to be a topline premium. However, they also show a four-week average of 44 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 51 in SuperCoach. These aren’t injured games; they happened. And while on the probability scale, he’s more likely to be a premium and a bust, there is a world where he holds and potentially marginally regresses. That could be due to a role split more 50/50 in MID/FWD, or it could be due to the tag. Unlikely doesn’t mean impossible.

Coaches starting with Connor can easily feel justified that he’ll be a strong starting selection. At the same time, those without him will monitor his start to the season and the DPP additions heading into round six. Either way, Connor is relevant and worthy of serious conversations and considerations this preseason.

DRAFT DECISION

The top five forwards off draft boards have a consensus about them amongst the community. Josh Dunkley, Tim Taranto and Stephen Coniglio are many people’s clear top three. However, once these guys are off the draft board, the attention will quickly turn to a forward like Connor Rozee. He’ll be an F1, but he’s someone you could get in the third round of your draft, maybe even fourth if you’re lucky. I know the top-end forwards fall off quickly, but I couldn’t jump onto Rozee with a second-round selection. 

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say on our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
Happy
Happy
0 %
Sad
Sad
0 %
Excited
Excited
0 %
Sleepy
Sleepy
0 %
Angry
Angry
0 %
Surprise
Surprise
0 %
#18 Most Relevant | Stephen Coniglio
0 0
Read Time:8 Minute, 0 Second

Rarely can a premium still be seen with significant value built into it’s price. Stephen Coniglio has that potential in 2023. But, as good as he has been, and can be, is Cogs the perfect player to start within our teams? Or should we be watching what happens under a new coaching regime?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Stephen Coniglio
Age: 29
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Midfield/Forward

2022 Highest Score: 
130 Vs North Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
174 Vs North Melbourne (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
192 Vs Gold Coast | AFLFantasy (2019)
207 Vs Gold Coast | SuperCoach (2019)

2022 Average: 
98.4 (AFLFantasy)
101.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $557,700
AFLFantasy Price: $871,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $893,100

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For over a decade, we’ve spoken favourably about Stephen Coniglio in fantasy football circles. The Giants co-captain has spent multiple seasons as part of this series and in the conversation of being a valuable premium and value pick since his debut in 2012. However, over recent seasons Cogs has shown whether he’s playing as a centre-bounce midfielder or as a high half-forward when he’s on the park, he’s still a damaging prospect for opposition teams to play against.

The 2022 season started promisingly enough, stalled in the middle and flew home over the final few months. His average of 98.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 101.3 in SuperCach places him as the second-highest-ranked forward available this year based on averages. For a true reflection of Stephen’s season, the year should be split into two halves. He had the nine games of the season under Leon Cameron and then what he did in the next twelve under interim coach Mark McVeigh.

No fantasy coach enjoyed the rollercoaster ride of the final few months of Leon’s coaching reign. But the positive is it created some inbuilt value into his price point for 2023. He’s priced at 98 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 101 in SuperCoach. But shown in the twelve games he played under McVeigh, he could score upwards of ten points per game higher than he’s priced at. You rarely get this much potential upside with premiums at this pricing range, but with Stephen, we have it.

This scoring under McVeigh echoes some of his historical data of years gone by. In 2018-2019 he averaged 110.3 & 103.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 108.4 & 101.2 in SuperCoach. So the data is really clear. If we can get Cogs north of 60% of centre bounces, then we’ve got a serious top-end forward-eligible premium that can score at the same levels as our midfield premos.

Even though our forward lines have taken a significant hit with the loss of MID/FWD DOPP to Bailey Smith, Marcus Bontempelli and Luke Parker as a notable big three, we’ve still got some top-end talent, and Coniglio, based on proven scoring, can be right in the conversations as a top tier forward this season.

Over previous seasons there had been significant concerns about his injury history. And while he’s still yet to play a full season, he played 95% of games last year and 94% of 2020, showing that he’s just as likely recently to play out the majority of a season as he is to miss big chunks. Therefore the injury narrative can get in the bin.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Whenever a team undergoes a coaching change, that can significantly change several elements. From a club culture, the game style, the best on-field 22 mix, and even player roles can all see significant transformation under a new coach. We saw this play out in real-time last year under the difference of how Leon utilised Stephen Coniglio as opposed to Mark McVeigh.

Fantasy football coaches must seek answers to several primary questions to make an informed decision regarding Cogs in your starting squad. First, what is the game style that Adam Kingsley will deploy at GWS? Will this game style be conducive to fantasy scoring? What is the midfield mix like for the Giants? And what roles will Stephen be asked to fulfil within this?

What does the midfield mix look like for GWS? Regardless of the mix and approach, I can’t see Tom Green missing out on being a senior figure and being the one that they build this new Giants era around. We spoke about him earlier in the 50 most relevant here. But who is standing at centre bounces alongside him? Is it a heavy reliance on experienced hands in Josh Kelly, Stephen Coniglio and Callan Ward? If that’s the case, the path to a 105+ average is potentially very clear and simple.

Also available for consideration in the mix for Kingsley and co are Lachie Ash & Harry Perryman, who’ve both sown potential through the guts when given opportunities, all be it limited. It could be trickier if the CBA mix is expanded and spread more evenly to include these lads. And then the likes of Finn Callaghan, Harry Rowston and even Toby McMullin are all likely key pillars of the future. Does ‘Pipes’ Kingsley give them just glimpses, or will he throw them into the deep end at the centre bounce? Ultimately, we will know season proper, but how you view this mix will inform the decision substantially around his selection on your side.

How much of what Kingsley sat under at Richmond as an assistant coach will translate to GWS? Historically we’ve seen Richmond over the recent era give us only a few fantasy prospects. While Collingwood got a new coach from the Richmond regime last year, we also saw a need for genuine fantasy prospects at the top end. Does that mean we’ll see something similar from Adam at GWS? Ultimately, the trend isn’t positive, but it’s far from definitive. As I spoke about with Rids on the podcast, this GWS midfield, in a pound-for-pound battle at the top end, is still one of the most elite units in the AFL. Just as probable as a poor fantasy-friendly game style is that he plays to his playing cattle strength and leverages the elite midfield players on the list.

Many coaches will have Josh Dunkley as their first forward selected and would strongly argue that by season’s end, he’ll be the top-performing forward in 2023. The fact he is already it and done in a split MID-FWD role at Western Bulldogs, the expectation of an even higher performance as a pure midfielder at Brisbane is highly valid. Only a few currently eligible forwards have the potential to match Dunkley, let alone challenge him for that mantle. Stephen has the proven scoring ceiling to not just go on hot runs of a few months of 110+ but has multiple seasons of average north of 100.

As of February 1st, 35% of DreamTeam, 34% of AFLFantasy and 21% of SuperCoach players have him on their side. So either with a valid reason or not, there is a level of high selection confidence across the community that Coniglio will be open to the top performing forward this year. That’s likely because at his ‘downside,’ he’s still a mid-high 80’s performer. While the upside

He will be cheaper than this if he’s a player attending anything higher than 60% centre bounces. However, he is valuable, and he can take a season away from you if he has a hot start through the midfield.

If you have any significant doubts about Coniglio, he’s an upgrade target for you. Whether that be in a role or how the Giants structure up. If you trust two or three more premium forward options than Coniglio, then he’s an upgrade target for you. The fact that the community is split on what to do makes him highly relevant, and his early season performance will impact your season’s success.

DRAFT DECISION

The first forward off the board on draft day will be Josh Dunkley. That seems a fait accompli universally across all drafts and formats. But where will Stephen Congilio go? Some have him ranked second, while others are hesitant on the GWS midfield and will fade him marginally. Either way, he’ll be in the first handful of forwards selected.

Forward premiums fall away fast this year, and the popular community sentiment is to lock away the best forward early. Should this sentiment get actioned, I can see coaches leaping for him in the first round. If he doesn’t go there, he’ll be a snaffled up as an early selection in the second round

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say on our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
Happy
Happy
0 %
Sad
Sad
0 %
Excited
Excited
0 %
Sleepy
Sleepy
0 %
Angry
Angry
0 %
Surprise
Surprise
0 %
#26 Most Relevant | Zak Butters
0 0
Read Time:7 Minute, 7 Second

All the talk this pre-season is about a Port Adelaide MID/FWD that could be one the best starting squad options. But none of it is about Zak Butters. He’s got the upside not just to match his more popular teammate, but he could be an even better pick.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Zak Butters
Age: 22
Club: Port Adelaide Power
Position: Midfield/Forward

2022 Highest Score: 
137 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy)
136 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
137 Vs Hawthorn | AFLFantasy (2022)
163 Vs Essendon | SuperCoach (2021)

2022 Average: 
86.3 (AFLFantasy)
96.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $529,400
AFLFantasy Price: $764,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $783,400

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It’s amazing how twelve months can change a players narrative can drastically change. This time last year, Zak Butters was one of the most hyped players entering the season. And while over the totality of 2022, there were multiple rollercoaster moments, he’s still entering into 2023 ranked by average as the #4 forward in SuperCoach and #7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, his seasonal average consisted of six tons. Two were above 120, while his scoring dipped below 80 in seven matches. While for SuperCoach, his average of 96.15 consisted of eleven tons, five above 120 and just six under 80. It’s not a bad effort, given in two of his games, he suffered serious head clashes, another he played with a virus and was also subbed out of one game with a knee injury.

What has coaches salivating entering into 2023 is that after he returned from injury, it appeared that he and the Power coaching staff found the perfect balance. In the final seven games of the year, he averaged 101.1 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 106.8 in SuperCoach. While in the final five games of the year, he averaged 107.4 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 115.6 in SuperCoach.

The scoring glimpses we saw last year were also seen in patches for the two seasons prior. In 2021 for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 76, scored one ton and four additional scores of 80 or higher. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 82, hit triple digits in one game and had four additional scores of 90+. In 2020 he averaged 87 in SuperCoach, which consisted of six tons; five were over 110 and four additional scores 80+. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 62.3 in the shorter games (adjusted 77) and scored one ton (114 pure 142 adjusted) and two other games 80+.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Many readers of our articles and podcast listeners are focused on one thing. Winning it all and getting the highest ranking possible. To do so, plenty of variables need to fall your way, but one thing is required. Pack separation. It can manifest itself in many ways, but ultimately you need something about your team to create separation from the pack and fantasy footy groupthink.

One of the areas in which you can create positive separation is you can opt into selecting a player that others are overlooking with the intent that they can either match or surpass others’ performances that have way higher ownership. For contrast’s sake, when you think of a premium Port Adelaide forward, the first thought for the majority of the community is Connor Rozee. That’s not necessarily a bad or wrong call, but it highlights how much Zak Butters is flying under the radar. Remember, in SuperCoach, Zak averaged more and was only two points per game off him in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. For players that have a similar scoring pedigree, that’s a drastic ownership differential.

SuperCoachDreamTeamAFLFantasy
Rozee33%38%42%
Butters10%10%6%

The above isn’t to say you should be on Team Butters or Team Rozee. You can select one, none or both. But rather, it’s to highlight the group think that can exist in the fantasy community and, certainly, the narrative reflected in the early ownership numbers. The seasonal data of Rozee is stronger, but to say they had similarities in the season is unfair. Rozee spent 3/4 of it as a centre-bounce midfielder, whereas Butters had only five games where he attended over 50%. Again, this is not about choosing one over the other but to remind you of the importance of looking broader and deeper to create separation from the pack.

A potentially valid reason to avoid owning Zak is that he’s shown over his AFL career to find multiple ways to get injured. For example, last year was a career season for games played. And yet he still had games where he had multiple head clashes, shoulder stingers, and then in round 14, he was subbed off and missed multiple games with a knee injury.

We’ve discussed players with less-than-friendly injury history throughout the preseason. My basic premise is with these players that if the injury is the question mark, you choose to start or pass on them for the season.

The reason being is that if you start with them, you can bank all the scores they deliver. And with every passing game, the likelihood of injury will only increase. However, suppose you trade into an injury ‘risk’. In that case, you run the gauntlet of not just missing his good scores that attracted you to make them an upgrade, but rather your likelihood of trading into that injury is higher with every game past.

Starting these ‘injury-prone’ players is the best way to offset the risk. If an injury does occur, you have banked every good score available but also spent just one trade, not multiple, on removing him from your side.

One big unknown entering the coming season is what happens to Port Adelaide, especially with their midfield mix. Last year Rozee and, to a lesser extent, Butters showcased the ability to play significant time through the midfield. They will split their time between midfield and forward because they could be in both roles, but how much split is uncertain. Ollie Wines will be the leader of the midfield pack. Then how much time is split across Travis Boak, Willem Drew, and recruit Jason Horne-Francis will be of great interest to watch.

Back to focus on Butters, will he score better with more time around the midfield? Or as a forward by reaping some of the benefits of a stronger midfield unit than last year? Arguably, as the final few months of 2022 showed, he is more capable of playing a 60% forward split and still averaging over 100. I genuinely believe Port found the sweet spot of how to use him to maximise both his competitive and fearless edge through the midfield. While not sacrificing his goal smarts up forward to Port Adelaide.

This preseason time shouldn’t be about locking players in & ruling players out of your starting squad. It should be about trying out multiple different squad formations and combinations. If Zak Butters hasn’t been at least considered before this moment, I suggest you reevaluate it and ponder the potential output he could bring this year.

DRAFT DECISION

Securing a strong F1 will be a coach’s top priority early on draft day. Zak Butters won’t be the top scoring forward, but he won’t have to be where you draft him. Across the formats, Josh Dunkley, Stephen Conilgio, Tim Taranto and Connor Rozee will be ahead of him. All will be top 15-20 selections as coaches scamper to get something strong. I see Zak heading off draft boards starting from the third round and into the early fourth. 

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say on our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
Happy
Happy
0 %
Sad
Sad
0 %
Excited
Excited
0 %
Sleepy
Sleepy
0 %
Angry
Angry
0 %
Surprise
Surprise
0 %
#39 Most Relevant | Darcy Cameron
0 0
Read Time:7 Minute, 50 Second

An injury is all it can take to make someone fantasy football relevant. In 2022 Darcy Cameron took his opportunity and became a hugely important selection across the formats. With Brodie Grundy now out of the picture, can Darcy continue his hot run of form and be one of the best selections in our starting squads?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Darcy Cameron
Age: 27
Club: Collingwood Magpies
Position: RUC/FWD

2022 Highest Score: 
133 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy)
130 Vs Fremantle (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
133 Vs Hawthorn | AFLFantasy (2022)
130 Vs Fremantle | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average: 
81.9 (AFLFantasy)
84.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $465,900
AFLFantasy Price: $725,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $743,500

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

There are two sides to the Darcy Cameron story in 2022. First, it’s a story of an opportunity being presented and of that opportunity being maximised. It’s about what happens when players get access to a role they’d never been granted. It’s the story of ‘DC’ playing with Brodie Grundy and then taking the mantle as the #1 ruckman when he goes out injured.

From rounds 2-6, it was a challenging start to the season for Darcy. He had one game where he started as the sub and another where he got subbed out with an alleged rib injury. In these five games, he averaged 12.4% attendance at centre bounces, one hitout, 8.4 possessions, 3.4 marks & one tackle. From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he averaged 47.8 and scored 71. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 46.6 with a top score of 72.

Then a significant change occurred. Brodie Grundy, on Anzac Day, smashed his knee against Essendon ruckman Sam Draper in a ruck contest. As a result, he injured his PCL. While the initial diagnosis was he’d miss up to three months, history now informs us that he’d miss the rest of the 2022 season.

From round seven until the season’s end, Darcy Cameron transitioned into the #1 ruck role and dominated. Then, between rounds 7-23, he saw a drastic spike in his possessions, hitouts, centre bounces, attendances and, most importantly, for us in his fantasy football output.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 92.6, scoring six tons, including a career-high score of 133. To go alongside this, Cameron had an additional four scores over 90. For SuperCoach, he averaged 96.5, eight tons, including 130 and four additional scores over 90. Visually, this is what it looks like.

The story of Darcy Cameron and his fantasy relevance is about more than just DC. It’s a reminder that every season we will see a player undertake a significant role change, and with it will come to a boom in scoring in contrast to the low output for your classic formats. The key is identifying the player that will fill the gap and jumping on quickly to maximize output. For coaches that jumped on super early, it was a move that paid massive dividends in cash generation, points scored and likely in your seasonal rankings. 

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

I’m in a messenger group with a bunch of mates who all play fantasy football. Chances are, you’ve got yourself in a similar setup, maybe even multiple. When I asked this group, ‘who’s picking Darcy Cameron?’ I was met with two very clear but polarising perspectives. Several thought he was the easiest selection of the year; others wanted to avoid selecting him.

There are several reasons why coaches should be considering him. The first is that for his price, there are zero question marks around his role for the side. He will be the #1 ruck. You don’t let Brodie Grundy leave without that confidence. Recruit Dan McStay will play the mobile tall forward and, as we saw at Brisbane, can play some relief ruck minutes.

Second is the potential return on investment. He’s priced approximately ten points per game beneath what was delivered last year past the role change. As a ruckman, he averaged 92 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. If you put that average alongside our current forwards, he’d be ranked fifth for average and third for rucks. He averaged 96 in SuperCoach; by the average contrast, he’d be placed fifth for forwards and tenth for rucks. So even without improving his scoring, but just holding what he did, he is right in the top groups of both rucks and forwards. Third, speaking of DPP, it’s the extra flexibility his RUC/FWD status creates. Just ask coaches that had Tim English last year. It enabled you to loophole scores, cover donuts and even save a trade.

All of these reasons sound wonderful and valid. And, for the most part, they are. However, what I believe is running as the undercurrent for people considering Cameron is one big unspoken issue. That when it comes to the ruck division, plenty of coaches have yet to learn what to expect will happen or even know what they want to do. A ‘set & forget’ approach had been the normative tactic for so long. But with moves in the offseason, all of Brodie Grundy, Max Gawn and even Sean Darcy now have ruck-share concerns.

Beyond Tim English, there seems no consensus that any ruck is ‘safe’ to pay up to own. Rowan Marshall should also be in that same bracket, but I empathise with people’s hesitation. I don’t have these doubts. The uncertainty around the ruck division creates an added appeal to Cameron. Selecting him allows you to look at the line, flip him forward or trade him to the premium on either the ruck or forward line of your choosing.

But it’s for these same reasons people want to avoid Cameron. They want to avoid getting stuck with a ruck or forward that might be anywhere from 10-15 points per game beneath the premium benchmarks in either the ruck or forward line.

Will his scoring range be enough? Even if he maintains his scoring rate from 2022? Who’s to say that our ruck division cannot yet again return to multiple 105+ options? I can see a world where Grundy & Gawm complement each other, not eat into each other’s scoring. The same with Darcy & Jackson.

Last year were got elite premium forwards as mid-season DPP gains. Bailey Smith, Luke Parker and Marcus Bontempelli. Who’s to say in 2023, we don’t get a similar tier of options? Factoring in these variables is an exciting challenge in the game.

Our forward division is already stacked for premiums up the top, value selection in the middle and plenty of cows. While the ruck might be thin at the range or below Cameron, there are options. For example, Scott Lycett is cheaper in all formats and has had three 80+ seasons in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & three 90+ in SuperCoach. So as good as Cameron might be at his price point, he’s not the only consideration.

Being the number one ruckman in an AFL side does take a toll on you. And last year, it did with Cameron. As good as he started in the role, his scoring did start to slide across the format. In the final eight games of the year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged just 79 and went at 82 in SuperCoach.

He should hold or improve his fitness to play out the season. But equally, oppositions could also have more data and plans to combat him. Nothing is ever certain in fantasy footy.

Darcy is a great player to consider this pre-season because both sides of the argument of holding or fading hold weight. Both feel they are easy decisions and that the other side is overthinking the situation. So what he ends up delivering in the coming season is one of the season’s most interesting outcomes.

DRAFT DECISION

One of the hardest players to rank in 2023 is Darcy Cameron. Do people rank and draft him based on a particular positional status? Or does his DPP increase his ranking range? Game formats, league sizes and the number of participants will ultimately inform where he gets picked.

In SuperCoach, I can see her going in the range of an F2, which is around the sixth round. While in AFLFantasy, he’ll be an F1 for many and likely go a round or so earlier.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say on our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
Happy
Happy
0 %
Sad
Sad
0 %
Excited
Excited
0 %
Sleepy
Sleepy
0 %
Angry
Angry
0 %
Surprise
Surprise
0 %
#40 Most Relevant | Errol Gulden
0 0
Read Time:6 Minute, 26 Second

Players rarely deliver a ton in their first game into the AFL, but Errol Gulden was able to do so. As he enters the mythical third-year breakout, could we see this Swan become the next big forward premium?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Errol Gulden
Age: 20
Club: Sydney Swans
Position: MID/FWD

2022 Highest Score: 
155 Vs GWS Giants (AFLFantasy)
131 Vs GWS Giants (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
155 Vs GWS Giants | AFLFantasy (2022)
139 Vs Brisbane | SuperCoach (2021)

2022 Average: 
83 (AFLFantasy)
85.7 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $472,000
AFLFantasy Price: $735,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $753,100

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

One of my favourite things to watch on AFL social media is when they introduce the new crop of draftees to the rest of the playing list. I remember a year when one recruiter introduced the draftees, and he went down the line of telling the players what they’re like as a person and a footballer. As he finished introducing the first player, he said, ‘he prioritises others and knows how to play good football.’ Then, going down the line and introducing every player, he finished each introduction with the same sentence. That AFL club was trying to recruit, but more importantly, drive home a club culture. When I think of that statement about ‘prioritising others and playing good football’, one of the first players I think of is Errol Gulden. The Swans academy graduate is a classy footballer with a high footy IQ, beautiful foot skills and a burst of speed that opens up the game around him.

In his second season in the AFL, Gulden averaged 19.5 possessions, 4.5 marks, 3.3 tackles and almost a goal per game. From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he averaged 83, placing him 13th among all forwards. He scored three tons, including a career-high 155 against cross-town rivals GWS. In that match, he had 33 touches, 12 marks, four tackles and two goals. He also had four additional scores between 90-99 & five more above 80. For SuperCoach in 2022, his average of 85 has him ranked as the 20th-best forward option. Last year from his 22 games, he scored six tons; three were above 120, including 131 & 130.

Some of these scores might not leap out to you as ‘amazing’ for a forward. But there are two key important considerations. Firstly, you’re not selecting him to be what he has been to this point in his career. Rather you’re using the past to give you confidence in his growing scoring trend. And then the trend is exceptional for someone that’s played under fifty games of footy. Second, The bar to being a premium forward currently needs to be lowered. Gulden is already close to being a top-ten forward. Yes, we’ll gain options during the year, but we still need to find out who and what the scoring is. Just 17 players are forward eligible in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, averaging over 80 last year, only seven over 85 and four over 90. In SuperCoach, we have 20 players entering the year with an average of 85 or higher, 13 over 90 and just three with 100+.

If you’ve played either SuperCoach, AFLFantasy or DreamTeam for more than one season, you’ll be very familiar with Errol Gulden. He started 2021 as the most dominant cash cow. In his first three AFL games, he scored in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam 108, 93 & 98. While in SuperCoach, it was an insane 139, 136 & 74.

Since game one in the league, Gulden has shown he can score. And as he enters his third season, it’s understandable why coaches believe he could become a premium forward in 2023.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Some big names stand out when I look at the forwards available in 2023. For example, Josh Dunkley is in many SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam coaches eyes as the standout top forward option this year. Arguably, he’s got the pedigree and potential to be the top-scoring player for the season across all lines, not just the forward division.

Most coaches across the formats would then place Stephen Coniglio and his former teammate Tim Taranto inside the top five midfielders. Then it opens up a bit, but Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, Isaac Heeney and Dylan Moore are all viewed as top-ten forwards. As good as these five should be, I couldn’t categorically say they’ll all be significantly far ahead of what Errol Gulden could be. In reality, he’s a mark & a kick away from being a 90-averaging forward.

More specifically, his scoring growth doesn’t have to come from increasing his ceiling frequency. It’ll help. But the greatest growth opportunity is around consistently raising his scoring floor. Last season, he had three scores below 60 in SuperCoach and six under 65 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. Even by turning these sub-65 scoring games into low 70s, he’s yet again on track for a 90+ average.

What Gulden will have over many of these names is being incredibly unique. Barring a drastic scoring game in the preseason, he’ll safely have under 5% of ownership. To have a guy with the current scoring trend, ceiling capacity, and low ownership as a starting squad option is huge.

If you’re looking at Gulden seriously for your side, it’s likely at an F3 position. Which, in principle, he can achieve. But the challenge in selecting him is twofold. The first is around the future positional additions & second is the team’s forward structure.

What is unknown is which players will populate the DPP additions for rounds six, twelve and eighteen. Last year we had some highly relevant gains throughout the season, including Bailey Smith, Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, Luke Parker and Rowan Marshall.

Additionally, we’ve got some sensational value in our forward lines from steeping stones, breakouts & cash cows. It’s why I can see plenty of teams ruling him out in favour of creating the space they need to position their side for their preferred structures.

For some, Gulden was never on the radar. Others are secretly dirty with me for even bringing up their point of difference. While for some, they’ve got something new to consider. Either way, Gulden is relevant for the 2023 season.

DRAFT DECISION

Have you tried to rank forwards for the draft in 2023? It’s pretty disgusting. It’s why you’ll see the top-end forwards get taken heavily in the first few rounds.

Based on his 2022 averages, Errol Gulden is ranked as the #12 forward in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 19th in SuperCoach. That would place him as an F2 selection across all formats. He’ll be a popular selection in that range and, as such, will likely leave draft boards around the 6th-7th round.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say on our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
Happy
Happy
0 %
Sad
Sad
0 %
Excited
Excited
0 %
Sleepy
Sleepy
0 %
Angry
Angry
0 %
Surprise
Surprise
0 %