Tag: Fremantle Dockers

Trade Review | Luke Jackson


Career High SuperCoach Score: 141 Vs Gold Coast (2021)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 125 Vs Brisbane (2022)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 84.5 (2022)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 71.3 (2022)

Impact on new club

How does Fremantle plan to use Luke Jackson? It’s one of the big questions coming out of the trade period. One of his strengths is his unbelievable athletic ability. The club pitched hard for the use of his versatility to play in a variety of positions, not just limited to a key position forward or ruck.

There was some speculation that the Dockers could use him similarly to Mark Blicavs at Geelong. However, while he has the skillset, the core difference between the two teams is that the key position stocks at both ends are secured at Geelong, while up forward, that’s not the case for the Dockers.

When you look at the Dockers forward stocks, it’s quite thin in the ‘tall’ department. Fremantle allowed Rory Lobb to depart, in part only once they had secured Jackson. At the same time, Griffin Logue has also moved to North. I’m a big fan of Jye Amiss, but at 19, he’ll take time to develop. So plenty of responsibility will need to land on Matt Taberner to stay healthy. Otherwise, any plans for the Dockers to use Jackson beyond the RUC/FWD role will be damaged.

Impact on the old club

There are short-term and long-term impacts with Luke Jackson moving to the Fremantle Football Club. However, you could build a case that the Demons are in a stronger place in the short term due to losing him. That’s due to the arrival of one of the modern-day great rucks in Brodie Grundy. Without throwing any shade on Jackson, the arrival of Brodie is an immediate improvement on their secondary ruck stocks.

How this combination of Grundy and Gawn working inside the same 22 will continue to see plenty of conjecture in the offseason. Still, the Demons can feel that, at least immediately, they’ll be in a stronger position without Jackson due to the arrival of Brodie.

Melbourne will need to adjust their list strategy in the medium-long term plans. The club made it no secret that Jackson was the protegee to Max Gawn. The intent was that Luke would just be starting to hit his when Gawn’s peak was gone. It’s now back to the drawing board for the club. They’ve been well compensated with draft picks, and given the club’s recent draft hits, fans should be confident that they’ll be OK long-term. However, it’s now ‘hope’ in a system/process rather than any specific player.

Fantasy Summary

Given the changes we’ve seen this off-season, I cannot see how anyone can enter 2023 with confidence that a ‘set & forget’ strategy is the right approach. Let me break that statement down. I believe you can only pursue that strategy if only the top two premiums in that line are clear and supreme. By clear, I mean little to no disagreement about who the best options are. By supreme, there is a significant scoring gap between the top two and the rest of the pack. If there isn’t a clear and supreme pair, I find it very hard to advocate for ‘set and forget.’

The arrival of Luke Jackson to Fremantle shouldn’t impact his scoring trend. At Melbourne, he was the secondary ruck, and with Sean Darcy on the Dockers side, I don’t see him moving out of the lead ruck role.

Jackson’s scoring is moving upwards of ten points per game over the past few years. He’ll be priced at 71 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, and 84 in SuperCoach, and will retain his RUC/FWD DPP. Unless he moves into the ruck as his lead role, I can’t see his scoring ceiling moving much deeper than a further 10 points per game on his current output.

The only way I see Jackson being of serious relevance in salary cap formats is if one of these two things eventuates. For example, a medium-long-term injury to Sean Darcy forces Luke Jackson to move into the #1 ruck spot. Or the forward division is so skinny of options we are forced into picking players at his range.

Trade Review | Darcy Tucker


Career High SuperCoach Score: 119 Vs North Melbourne (2019)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 111 Vs Gold Coast (2021)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 73.2 (2019)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 72.4 (2019)

Impact on new club

You can look at the recruitment of Darcy Tucker in multiple ways. One is the slightly more optimistic approach. By adding Tucker to the list, they get themselves a proven midfielder who, at 25 years of age, adds some immediate experience to a very young midfielder core. Beyond Ben Cunnington, the likes of Simpkin, Phillips, Powell & Davies-Uniacke are all under 25.

More pessimistically, you can see Tucker as a player that, while helpful for now, will slow down the development opportunities of more young talent that might have greater long-term upside.

I’m closer to being a pessimist in this scenario. For Tucker to even consider a trade out of Fremantle, it must have been on the promise that the midfield/wing spot is ‘his to lose.’ I don’t mind Darcy as a depth option, but I don’t believe North would ideally want him in their best lineup.

Impact on the old club

Over the past few years, Darcy Tucker has faded into being a depth option on the Fremantle list. So they were happy to let him slide into North Melbourne as part of the Griffin Logue trade.

The Dockers still have yet to hand a debut to Matthew Johnson, while they’ll want to keep getting more game time into Nathan O’Driscoll.

So while his departure might thin out some experience from within their depth, it would significantly impact the Dockers finals aspirations.

Fantasy Summary

A combination of injuries and other talent going past him meant he’s played just 38 games over the past three seasons. In 2022, he played 14 games but was used as a medical substitute in three of those.

He didn’t deliver any scores worth highlighting this year, but in round 13 against the Suns in 2021, he scored 111 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 95 in SuperCoach. So, while good scores are rare for him, they are, at the very least, a possibility.

Last year, Tucker was listed as a DEF/MID and will likely enter the year with similar positional status. If that holds for this DPP AND he receives a discount on his average in the low 40s, we could see Darcy priced marginally above the cash cow range in SuperCoach & DreamTeam.

His relevance will largely be determined by more than just these factors of position and price. But also on the scarcity of viable options with job security in his line and whether or not we have comparable value with greater upside in another line.

Based on these elements, Darcy will become either a valuable commodity to keep an eye on or he’ll become an option not worth considering.

Trade Review | Blake Acres

Career High SuperCoach Score: 144 vs Brisbane (2018)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 126 Vs Melbourne (2016)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 88.4 (2018)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 85.2 (2022)

Impact on new club

Plenty went right in season 2022 for Carlton. They had the Brownlow Medalist in Patrick Cripps, the Coleman Medalist in Charlie Curnow, and one of the best’ feel good’ returns with Sam Docherty playing AFL after his cancer battle. But, even though plenty went right for the Blues, there were still some clear gaps in the list.

One of the gaps they’ve needed to fill is across the wings. The inclusion of Adam Cerra last year did make a difference, but he’s not a pure outside wingman. So instead, Carlton opted to make his game time almost a 50/50 inside/outside split. They’ve also tried to use young star Sam Walsh similarly. Furthermore, Nic Newman and even Zac Williams got some rotations up the ground when they were healthy and available to play.

The trade for Blake Acres means that the Blues should have the full midfield complement to finally make their return to playing finals football.

Patrick Cripps is the clearance beast, and George Hewett is the unheralded defensive inside hard nut. I predict Carlton will run them heavily at centre bounces, similar to what they did in 2022. They’ll then rotate Sam Walsh and Adam Cerra through the CBAs and a wing. At the same time, Matt Kennedy finishes out the midfield 5. Now with Acres, the other ‘outside’ midfield role no longer has to be flipped around across multiple players every week. With Blake in the side, Carlton no longer has glaring gaps in the best 22. It’s time for the Blues to push for the flag.

Impact on the old club

Over the past few seasons, the Dockers midfield depth has started to thin. A combination of retirements and trades has seen them lose Adam Cerra, Darcy Tucker, David Mundy, and Blake Acres.

While Acres might not have the name recognition that either Mundy or Cerra has, he’s still a significant loss for the club. In addition, Blake had created a damaging partnership with James Aish.

The club ran quite a tight centre bounce rotation this year. It was predominantly Andrew Brayshaw, Will Brodie, David Mundy and Caleb Serong. If fit, I’d suspect the Dockers are hoping that Nat Fyfe will pick up most, if not all, of Mundy’s midfield minutes.

Over the past few seasons, the Dockers have hit the early portions of the draft hard. So they’ll be looking to fill the wings with some of the talent already on the list. The most obvious option that comes to mind is Nathan O’Driscoll. He showcased plenty of promise in his twelve games this year. His running power and skills should only grow with another preseason. Long term, I think NOD has the potential to be a phenomenal footballer.

Local lad Neil Erasmus is more of an inside midfielder that can be damaging forward of the ball, but he does have the ability to get it done on the outside. I think he replaces Mundy in the best 22 and should eventually slide more into the centre bounce rotation.

Fantasy Summary

Last year was a career high AFLFantasy/DreamTeam season from Blake Acres, with an average of 85. However, while still solid, his average of 83 in SuperCoach wasn’t as high as in his 2018 or 2020 seasons.

He posted five tons in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and four in SuperCoach, in addition to multiple scores of 90+. Given that Acres spends most of his game rolling across the acrs on the wing, his scoring variance and ceiling are heavily linked to his team’s success. That is due to either their ability to win the ball at stoppages or to pick up possessions of the intercept.

In salary cap formats, he’ll need to increase his scoring average by 20 points per game for him to become relevant. However, at Carlton, I don’t forecast this to be possible. Why? Because Carlton’s game style is considerably less dependent on uncontested possession and marks than Fremantle. For example, Freo was ranked fourth for marks last year, while the Blues were tenth.

Outside of possessions, Acres next highest scoring column of AFLFantasy points came through marks. Almost 20% of his scores came through that column, averaging six per game. Last year of all Carlton players, only Sam Docherty and Nic Newman took more grabs than him.

I expect Acres still to be a fine late round selection in draft leagues. His ability to regularly post scores north of 90+ should still make him a viable option, even if it’s only a bench option.

#19 Most Relevant | Sean Darcy

In 2021 we saw the emergence of plenty of new top-end premiums. One of the most surprising was the season of Fremantle ruck Sean Darcy. After overcoming his poor injury history, is the Dockers destroyer ready to take his game up to even stronger scoring levels?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Sean Darcy
Age: 23
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Ruck

2021 Highest Score: 
133 Vs Essendon (AFLFantasy)
193 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
133 Vs Essendon | AFLFantasy (2021)
193 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2021)

2021 Average: 
93.7 (AFLFantasy)
118 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $642,500
AFLFantasy Price: $786,00
AFLDreamTeam Price: $799,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

If you’ve played any draft format of the game, then you’d be familiar with Sean Darcy and his fantasy prospects. The question was never around if he could score. If you deliver a 114 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 99 in SuperCoach in your second AFL match, you’ve got scoring capacity. Instead, the concern was can his body let him live up to his promise? With just 41 games in the past four seasons, it wasn’t looking strong in 2021.

Thankfully for him, the Dockers and the fantasy footy community, he put together a superb season. He averaged 16.6 possessions, 28 hitouts, four marks and three tackles per game. He ranked sixth across the league for total hitouts, winning more than Scott Lycett, Tom Hickey and Reilly O’Brien. While also finishing eleventh for total contested marks.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, his average of 93.9 has him ranked third among rucks behind Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn. He delivered nine tons across his twenty-one games, three of them over 120 plus an additional four games where he scored between 90 and 99. That’s a good season, but he had an even better one in SuperCoach.

Darcy averaged 118, which in the game is currently the seventh-highest! His year consisted of fourteen tons; nine of these were over 120 and an insane four that was 150+ including a 183 & 193. To go with this high scoring ceiling was four other games where he scored between 90-99, and in only two games, his scoring dipped below 80. Last year, there was a three-round stretch where he put up some unbelievable numbers. Between rounds 16-18, he averaged 177 and the lowest score of 156.

He’s got the second-highest average of all rucks (yep, he’s ahead of Brodie Grundy), and his average is higher than the following players that have already been added to the 50 most relevant. Jarryd Lyons, Rory Laird, Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish, Callum Mills & Cam Guthrie. Over the past few seasons, nobody has got close to touching the top two rucks. But with Darcy, the ability to match, let alone surpass one of Grundy/Gawn, is looking increasingly possible. Perhaps in 2022, he will have a new king in the ruck division? If we do, there’s every chance that Sean makes it happen!

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MY TAKE

The scoring ceiling of Sean Darcy isn’t only comparable to the best rucks in the game, but it’s as good as some of the best premiums in the game. Rarely can a player outside of the midfield line show multiple scores in a season north of 130 in AFLFantasy or 150 in SuperCoach.

Earlier, we discussed the previously poor injury history of Darcy. Still, after playing 21 consecutive games last year, I don’t believe you can have that as the primary reason for opting out of selecting him. He’s now shown the ability to back up week after week, month after month and even plays through some serious in-game knocks. After all, as a physical ruck style, his game style as a heavily contested player will always lend itself to knocks and bumps.

However, if you still have durability concerns, the equation is simple: start Darcy or rule him out entirely. For players with a history of missing multiple games, you need to bank the opportunity to maximise the number of games he plays by starting him. The mathematical variance and likelihood of him missing through injury will only increase based on each game. It’s why if you’re worried about missing games, start him, bank the points and then trade if the injury hits.

By opting to go with Darcy, you choose to forgo Grundy or Gawn. One element that generally would’ve helped is sitting on a differing bye round. However, that’s not the case. Sean’s Dockers are always taking the week off in round 13. So you’ve only got two viable structures this season when it comes to ruckmen. A set & forget pair of premium rucks or a premium ruck at R1 paired with some that offer value at R2. Some might consider a viable starting ruck combo of Jarrod Witts and Braydon Preuss. Still, as potentially feasible as it might be, it’s only in AFLFantasy could I advocate for that.

Using the highest ownership percentage as a guide, Brodie Grundy is viewed across AFLFantasy and SuperCoach as the #1 ruck to start with. Let’s hold that as a premise and suggest he will be one of the best two premium rucks. I think Grundy is the safest premium ruckmen in 2022. So I’m very comfortable with this assumption. Before you can consider Darcy, you need to have a narrative about what you believe will happen this season with Max Gawn, who was the top ruck across all formats last year.

‘In 2021, Max averaged 120 in SuperCoach and 108 in AFLFantasy. The regular storey I hear in the preseason I hear surrounding Gawn is that he’ll regress on the back of Luke Jackson picking up more centre bounce moments as he continues his strong progression. While that might be the case, I am baffled to see some suggestions that means Gawn falls so far back to the pack that he’s not a supreme option. Even if that does happen, he is still a dominant presence up forward; remember his preliminary final against the Cats? A bumper five-goal performance, a 145 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, and 159 in SuperCoach. ‘But MJ‘, I hear you say, ‘that’s just one game, that’s not enough data to make that assumption.’ Maybe, but many are happy to do the same based on Luke Jackson’s Grand Final.

I can’t advocate for Darcy as an R1 in your starting squads. Others might be able, but I cannot. As good as I think he can be, by selecting him at R1, you’re locked into him being a certainty as a top-two ruckman. I’m not convinced he’ll be better than Grundy, and I’m not sold that any regression of Gawn is sufficient to make Darcy a clear superior pick. This is one of the reasons I’ll be targeting him as an upgrade.

The other core reason is that set & forget rucks is a strategy you can bypass in 2022. This season, Braydon Preuss is an absolute no-brainer pick at R2 if named round one. Picking him enables coaches the salary cap space to invest in other lines. I’m aware of the battle for ruck spots, but for me, Preuss is a clear clubhouse leader. Braydon’s seemingly clear path as value ruck and the other premium rucks I still have more confidence in ahead of Darcy means I cannot start and must target him as an upgrade.

If I had to start him in one format, it’d be SuperCoach; it’s this format he could be a beast. Currently, 28% of coaches own him and all power to them for doing it. I think he’ll be great, but I’m choosing to ‘check’ and see what other cards are dealt my way before going ‘All in’ on Darcy.

DRAFT DECISION

You sit in one of two camps for ruckmen on draft day. Camp one, you value them highly and look to secure one of the premium options as soon as possible. The other, you care little for them and look to ‘punt’ a ruck selection with one of your final on-field picks. Once Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn, it’ll then be time for coaches to consider taking Sean Darcy.

Once Gawn and Grundy are off the board, coaches will draft Sean Darcy. Depending on what format you draft will determine what happens next. In SuperCoach, he looms as the clear#3 ruck option. However, in UltimateFooty, where Rowan Marshall is an RUC/FWD, there’s a genuine conversation for him to be taken ahead of Darcy.

Darcy’s drafting range will float between the middle of the second round into the late third. One thing’s for sure is he won’t be available in the same range of 2020, where his ADP was 223 in UltimateFooty.

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#28 Most Relevant | Andrew Brayshaw

The fantasy football pedigree of Andrew Brayshaw is evident as he’s already broken out as a premium midfielder. The question now is can he elevate his abilities to the next tier of uber midfielders?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Andrew Brayshaw
Age: 22
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score: 
156 Vs Richmond (AFLFantasy)
190 Vs Richmond (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
156 Vs Richmond| AFLFantasy (2021)
190 Vs Richmond| SuperCoach (2021)

2021 Average: 
104.2 (AFLFantasy)
107.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $584,300
AFLFantasy Price: $875,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $888,900

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

There are some players in the AFL that are impossible to dislike. Andrew Brayshaw is undoubtedly one of those. The way he leads within the club, the workrate he shows on the field and then who could forget the famous Christmas Day “Brayshaw family’ sprint sessions. These, plus the way he responded to the infamous ‘Gaff Gate’ incident, makes him very easy to want to wish him every success.

As a footballer, Andy is starting to show that he’s the complete midfield package. In just his fourth AFL season, he ranked seventh for uncontested possessions, eleventh for effective disposals and thirteenth for disposals per game. This combination of stats highlight his high workrate to get into space, and then when he does have the ball in his hands, he’s a reliable and effective distributor.

He scored 13 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons; five of them were above 120 and two higher than 135, including his personal best 156. In addition, he had three more scores between 90-99. That’s 80% of his scores, either 90 or above, last year. From a scoring basement, he had three scores under 70. All of these were when he copped a heavy tag. Closing out the season, he averaged 104.2, higher than Andrew Gaff, Jy Simpkin and Josh Kelly. 

For SuperCoach, he scored twelve tons, with a lowest of 109 and that top score of 190. He had seven tons over 120, four additional 90-99 and just three scores beneath 70. His 107 is ranked nineteenth for all midfielders but is higher than Travis Boak, Nat Fyfe, Patrick Dangerfield & Lachie Neale. 

This 2021 scoring follows on from his breakout third season of 2020. That year he verged 101 in SuperCoach and scored ten tons, while in AFLFantasy, he averaged 76,4 95 adjusted) and score three tons + five additional scores over. 80. Don’t forget that 80 was a comparable ton to a regular season in the shorter games. 

The season was strong but rounds 5-14 gave fantasy coaches what we saw in 2021. During that nine-game stretch, he averaged 118 in SuperCoach and 89.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, or if you like, adjusted averages that a 112. So the scoring power is there and is proven, now is the time for Andy to elevate himself to the next tier of midfield premiums. With some increased consistency, he could quickly push into the top ten midfield premiums this year.

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MY TAKE

Much has been made in the fantasy footy community about the famed ‘their year breakout.’ And as much as we do have data backing up the claim, it’s the fourth and fifth seasons that players establish themselves as dominant premiums. Andrew Brayshaw is following along right on pace with the likes of Scott Pendlebury.

While the trend is proper and healthy, there is one significant question mark, that’s about he goes handling the tag, last year, he copped three heavy tags, and in everyone, he struggled along. In two of them, he even failed to register a 70. This was the first time in his AFL career that he received this attention. Given his high work ethic, he’ll have spent alot of the preseason working through ways to limit the impact of tags should opposition coaches send them towards him. Remember, players will have good and bad games, But If his basement can become an 80, he’ll become a 110 guy across formats even without increasing his ceiling.

I’m not convinced that the absence of Adam Cerra will have any bearing. In the four games he played without Cerra last season, he averaged 2.2 more points per game in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 4.5 in SuperCoach. With Cerra now at Carlton, I’m intrigued to see just what the dockers midfield rotation looks like. Many believe Nat Fyfe is sure to be heavy in the forward line. I’m not as convinced. For Freo to still push for finals, it’ll still require Fyfe to be a heavy midfield presence. Without him there, the midfield is too shallow.

It’s a question of ‘when’ not ‘if’ Bradshaw become a top tier premium. Coaches jumping on him this preseason are convinced that it’s 2022. And if that’s the case, you’ll need to be comfortable that he’s someone you can out the VC/C on most weeks. Fremantle plays four of the first five rounds as a late Sunday game for those curious. So, in reality, he’ll not be a VC candidate in the first month. After that, it’s captaincy or bust, given that fixture.

I’m confident in him delivering a 110+ season this year, and in several formats for me, he’s right in starting squad considerations.

DRAFT DECISION

Based on his seasonal average from 2021, coaches should land Andrew Bradshaw as an M2. However, there is a world where he could even be an M3 in the right league if you’re drafting a heavy midfield approach and others are locking away other lines.

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#36 Most Relevant | Caleb Serong

Fantasy football coaches love to chase a breakout candidate. In 2022 can Caleb Serong elevate himself to being a premium midfielder?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Caleb Serong
Age: 20
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score: 
143 Vs North Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
135 Vs West Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
143 Vs North Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2021)
135 Vs West Coast | SuperCoach (2021)

2021 Average: 
82.4 (AFLFantasy)
82.9 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $451,000
AFLFantasy Price: $691,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $702,300

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

One of the satisfying feelings as a fantasy coach is nailing a breakout selection and watching them turn into a premium. Entering 2022, the hype train is growing for Fremantle midfielder Caleb Serong. As a junior, he showed the fantasy pedigree that coaches notice. During the national championships in 2019 for Vic Country, he averaged 23.5 disposals, 5.5 marks, 8.5 tackles and almost a goal a game. Thankfully for coaches, the scoring appeared almost immediately from his debut season as a Docker.

From fourteen games in 2020, he averaged 81 in SuperCoach and posted three tons all over 110. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged an adjusted 83 and scored three pure 90’s and a ton. Not a bad effort for a first-year player and in shorter games. These performances had coaches bullish that he’d join the elite company of Nat Fyfe, Clayton Oliver and Jackson Macrae and become a premium in season two. While that didn’t happen year-round, it did further enhance the belief that it was a matter of when not if, he’d return a triple-figure average in his career.

Last season he averaged 82.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, consisting of five tons, four of them over 115 and a personal best 143. In addition, he had four more scores over 80. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 82.8 scored seven tons, three of them were above 115 and his career-high score of 135. In addition, he scored an extra five times 80 or higher.

In totality, that’s strong from a second-year player, but the final five games of the year are what has given fantasy players greater confidence with selecting him this year. In the last five games in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored 94, 75, 118, 117 & 116. That’s an average of 104 in that stretch, but he went at 117 in the final three. The trend is similar in SuperCoach. He ended the year with 103, 82, 115, 135 & 103. Again, that’s a five-game average of 107 and a last three of 117.

This analysis trend of how a player ends a year being used to forecast a new season has been used by coaches to project premium seasons for many years with good effect. For example, when Aaron Hall played for Gold Coast in the final seven games of 2015, he averaged 106 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 112 in SuperCoach. The following year in 2016, he played 17 games, averaged 105 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and scored 11 tons, three over 120, including a 151. All year he had just two scores under 90.

Over the final ten games of 2017, Toby McLean averaged 95 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam after only having one score over 90 in his first nine games. While in SuperCoach, he ended the year final ten-game stretch with an average of 97 after failing to score a ton in the opening nine games. In 2018 he averaged mid 90’s across the formats and was one of the best forward premiums. It also happened again at the Bulldogs but with Josh Dunkley. In 2018 during his last nine games in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 112 and scored 7 tons, 5 of them were over 110, and his lowest score was 96. For SuperCoach, he averaged 115 and scored 7 tons, 3 of them were over 130, and his lowest score was 86. In 2019 he played every game and averaged 111 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 116 in SuperCoach.

What can help further enhance this narrative is Adam Cerra departing the club to join Carlton. We’ve got only four data games to go off last year, but in those matches, without Cerra, we saw Serong average 101 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 89 in SuperCoach. So the signs are certainly orienting towards a strong season from Caleb Serong.

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MY TAKE

The signs are there, and to be frank, they’ve been around since his junior days. In time, Caleb Serong will be a star, and he’ll be a popular premium for many years to come. The primary question is, will he average enough to warrant selection this year?

Last year he was the clubhouse leader for the Dockers for centre bounce attendances, but he did have a specific role set by the coaching staff. The majority of the year, he was forced to play accountable through the midfield. It’s not a tagging role, but he was defensively minded in core function. This was done by Fremantle as a pathway to advance his development. And it certainly will pay dividends in time. Having him learn off the running and midfield patterns of Zach Merrett, Sam Walsh, Jack Macrae and Touk Miller.

In theory, he will take a more ball-focused role with Adam Cerra gone to Carlton, David Mundy injured, and Nat Fyfe is slowly building into the preseason. But will the growth he experiences be significant enough to make it worthwhile? Each format requires a different strategy and mindset for success, but for now, I’d like to group SuperCoach and DreamTeam and AFLFantasy in isolation.

At his price in DT/SC, he’s priced too high to be considered a stepping stone. But that’s what a Matt Rowell is. At his price point in the early ’80s, he must become a premium for you and be someone you intend to retain for the entire season. To do this, he needs to average a minimum increase of 20 points per game of growth to warrant it. Can he do that? Maybe. But also, can you choose to select him over Elliot Yeo or Matt Crouch? Both who if fit and proven guys who can go 105+. I’m not sure you could start multiples of these guys anyway in these formats. That’s a lot of hope returns in the scoring line that should provide for you the great points reward.

A scoring increase of 15 points per game is in the high 90’s, but again that’s not enough. At his price, he’s not making you enough money to warrant the trade as a stepping stone. And if he can’t push an average near 105, then he’s not scoring enough to be the premium midfielder you’re choosing him to be. I don’t believe he’ll average enough to be someone I’m happy to hold for the season in these limited trade formats of the game. So in DreamTeam and SuperCoach, it’s a ‘no’ from me.

AFLFantasy is the format that makes the most sense, to begin with him. I can see a comfortable growth of 10 points per game and even an early run of over 5-6 weeks going at 100. In this format, players with some obvious value on price point and the ability to match it with premiums for a few weeks is exactly the right starting approach. With the two trades a week, you can be looking to play a quicker cash game and own multiple players within the price range. Between $700,000 and $640,000 we’re rich for option. They include Elliot Yeo, Patrick Cripps, Luke Shuey, Tim Kelly and Matt Crouch. Plus the MID/FWD options in Stephen Coniglio, Tarryn Thomas, Jack Graham and Shai Bolton.

Is he the best option at that price point? Can you have multiples? And if so, how many? Ultimately that will be a big decision point for coaches in AFLFantasy this season. In this format, one in four coaches already own him, and if he fires early, it’ll feel like a victory early on.

DRAFT DECISION

Players like Caleb Serong are fascinating to watch where they do go on draft day. I’m confident that you’ll have a coach that’s bullish on the breakout and reach for him too early in some leagues. While others will cool and draft based on his average and have him as later. His range of positions could be as high as an M2 or as low as an M5. I think if you want him, you’ll have to take the plunge at M3. The potential ‘salary cap hype’ could bleed into coaches thinking. M4 feels the right space for me.

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AFL Trade Review | Adam Cerra

Towards the end of 2021, Adam Cerra started to deliver on his fantasy potential. But does a move to Carlton help or hurt his scoring output? 

Career High SuperCoach Score: 138 vs Richmond (2021)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 90.2 (2020)

Career High AFLFantasy Score:  147 vs Richmond (2021)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 87.3 (2021)

Impact on New Club

The Blues have spent the better part of three seasons trying to get the midfield mix right. However, when fit, Patrick Cripps is still among the most damaging contested ball midfielders in the competition. At the same time, Sam Walsh could be staking a claim to be the midfielder in the AFL in the next two seasons. 

Beyond those two, the Blues have always looked out of balance whether it was too slow with Marc Murphy, Ed Curnow & Will Setterfield surrounding them. Or too volatile with Zac Williams, Paddy Dow and Lachie O’Brien surrounding them. The Carlton faithful must be hoping that Adam Cerra (along with George Hewett) can once and for all help settle the midfield down.

I believe Cerra will play more of an outside/wingman role for the Blues. It’s in this portion of the midfield that his skills and the Blues list need perfectly collide. 

Impact on Old Club

The departure of Adam Cerra is a significant loss for the Fremantle Dockers. At 22 years of age and after four preseasons, the club would’ve anticipated the investment dividends on him starting to return.

However, they now find themselves needing to replace one of the more versatile options on their side. Cerra provided a combination of poise, class, endurance and speed. Unfortunately, I don’t see any singular player becoming the ‘like for like’ replacement ahead of the AFL draft. So Fremantle will need to look more for a collective replacement approach. 

Yet to be sighted, Luke Valente and Nathan O’Driscoll, along with recruit Will Brodie, will all be hoping for the first chance to set into the midfield mix. However, I suspect a greater reliance to come on James Aish, Darcy Tucker and Blake Acres, who is more suited to the outside midfield roles than the others listed above.

Alternatively, Fremantle might look to wind back the clock and let veterans David Mundy or Michael Walters across the more outside roles. 

Fantasy Summary

When I think of how best to describe Adam Cerra as a player, the first word that comes to mind is class. ‘Chez’ has this uncanny ability to make the complex look easy and find his teammates lace out from seemingly impossible positions. 

The scoring consistency hasn’t yet popped for him. Just last year alone, he delivered just four scores over 100. But what I like about his scoring is the steady build. Over the past three seasons, he’s averaged 60, 75 (BCV) and now an 87, which includes an injury impacted 15. 

If this current scoring trend continues and maintains at his new club, he should average 95 for the next 7-8 seasons. Additionally, it wouldn’t surprise me if he ever cracked a few seasons over the 105 marker. 

If he plays more as an outside midfielder, it’s notoriously tricky to put up 100+ averaging seasons consistently. Beyond Andrew Gaff, not many have done so. 

At Carlton (his rumoured club of choice), he’ll never get tagged. That will always be Sam Walsh or Patrick Cripps if he can ever get back to his former glory. Having Cerra as potentially the #3 midfielder will be an exciting proposition for Blues fans and fantasy coaches.

AFL Trade Review | Will Brodie

Will Brodie showed plenty of fantasy footy pedigree as a junior, but at Gold Coast, he’s failed to fulfil his potential. So does a trade to Fremantle change his fortunes? 

Career High SuperCoach Score: 120 vs North Melbourne (2019)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 80.2 (2019)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 142 vs North Melbourne (2019)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 87.7 (2019)

Impact on New Club

Call me jaded, but I don’t think the club’s primary objective in this trade was securing Will Brodie. Instead, it was securing the first pick on night #2 of the AFL draft with pick 19.  History has shown that this pick can easily be turned into multiple selections, including a future first-round pick.

At best, Brodie can create some excellent inside midfield depth for the Dockers.  I expect Nat Fyfe, Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw will be the big three in the midfield. If he can crack the Freo side, it might minimise the dependency on Fyfe as a midfielder. 

The worst case scenario is he is relegated to the WAFL.

Impact on Old Club

The Gold Coast Suns are relatively stacked for inside midfield units. And even though Will Brodie was a previous top tier draft pick, they were more than happy to see him as a depth option. Touk Miller has become the inside general. David Swallow and Hugh Greenwood are also regulars at centre bounces. The club will be hoping for a clean run of health from Matt Rowell, while his best mate Noah Anderson has shown he also can play on the inside of the contest.

Throw in the MID/FWD role players like Ben Ainsworth, Elijah Hollands and Sam Flanders and all of a sudden, and it’s a deep centre bounce rotation.  I list all those names to say this. No, the Gold Coast Suns won’t miss Brodie. 

Fantasy Summary

Regardless of the format, every player you select in your fantasy team must have a compelling narrative behind them. So what’s the story or justification of why you’ve chosen this player? 

There is a world where Brodie is relevant for us next season. It starts with him retaining MID/FWD status. With forward eligibility, the scoring threshold isn’t as high as a puree midfielder. All of a sudden, an 80’s average like delivered in 2019 becomes a viable option. 

However, it’s not forward status alone. Brodie will also need to win a space as the ‘first touch inside midfielder’. The probability of this, I believe, is unlikely, as discussed earlier. But there is a world where it can happen. And if it does, a glance at some 2019 scoring shows potential.

That year he delivered multiple 110+ scores across the formats plus several additional scores over 80. In drafting formats, he’s well worth a late flyer pick, especially as a MID/FWD. However, in salary caps, you’d need to see a blinding preseason to consider him even at a discounted price. 

If any salary cap format were worth taking the risk on him, then AFLFantasy would be the only one. There you can quickly ‘abandon ship’ if things turn out poorly and not destroy your season too quickly. 

#32 Most Relevant | Nat Fyfe

When he’s on the park, Nat Fyfe can be one of the game’s most damaging scorers. The question is, just how many games will he play in 2021?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Nat Fyfe
Age: 29
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score: 
98 Vs Brisbane (AFLFantasy)
166 Vs Port Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
150 Vs Adelaide | AFLFantasy (2015)
171 Vs | SuperCoach (2014)

2020 Average: 
75.3 (AFLFantasy) | 94.1 (Adjusted Average)
113.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $608,300
AFLFantasy Price: $720,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $695,800

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Without looking at his statistics, If I asked you how you’d rank the season from Nat Fyfe what would you say? Based on the current conversations and starting squad selections I’m seeing across the community many believe he had a poor year.

While he was down on what he’d done previously, it’s hardly a catastrophic fall from grace. Based on averages he still ranked 5th in the AFL for contested possessions, 8th for handballs and 11th for stoppage clearances per game.

From an AFLFantasy perspective, it was a down season from the Fremantle skipper. Six times he scores over 80, an additional four over 70 and just one score sub 50 which was an injury impacted game. A season average of 75 (adjusted 94) is still more than respectable given the challenges the season through at him.

In his primary scoring format of SuperCoach, he put together another prolific season. He ranked 11th for all midfielders based on his average of 113. His year was built off 9 tons with his lowest being 110 and five of them above 130. He had just one score sub 80 & that was when he injured his hammy in the 3rd Q against the Suns.

2020 saw him yet again fall to injury but compared to previous seasons missing just 3 games is hardly a catastrophe. Last years 113 average ensured his third consecutive season in SuperCoach where he’s averaged 110+.

The year prior in 2019 was a strong personal season for the Fremantle captain. He was awarded his third club best and fairest, recognised as captain this year of all Australian side and won his second Brownlow Medal. Individual accolades like this will see him go down in history as an all-time great.

From his 20 games he averaged 30 possesions, 18 of them were contested, went at 70% efficiency, averaged eight clearances a game and five inside ’50s. Across the entire AFL, he ranked third for contested possessions, sixth for clearances and tenth for total disposals.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he was ranked 15th for all midfielders ending the year with an average of 104.9. It featured fourteen scores over the ton, with seven of them over 120. Along with a high frequency of hundreds, he rarely let owners down with a poor score. Just twice throughout the season did he dip below 75.

Despite missing two games in the season, he ranked eighth in SuperCoach for total points of all midfielders and is one of only three available that averaged over 120 last year. In 85% of games last year (17) he scored one hundred or more. Of those 17 tons, 12 of them were over 120, and an insane six were 140 or higher. Across the season he had only three games where he didn’t reach triple figures and ended the season averaging 120.

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MY TAKE

Just scores wherever he is, whether it be forward or midfield he’s the perfect modern footballer. Like fellow Brownlow Medalists in Dustin Martin and Patrick Dangerfield, he’s equally as dangerous no matter where you play him on the ground.

Over the first 8 games of the season, the lowest time on the ground for Fyfe had just one game where he had under 80% time on the ground that wasn’t due to him injured. However, in the final five games of the year, his highest time on the ground was 83%, and he had two games where he barely cracked the 70% marker. Clearly, Fyfe’s time was being managed as the season went on.

Was that load management from the Dockers? Or was Freo allowing the kids of Serong, Cerra and Brayshaw the chance to own the midfield? I believe it’s a combination of both.

Much has been made of his growing injury history, and while it’s far from faultless, it’s hardly the disaster some make it out to be. In the past two seasons, he’s missed just five games. Brave coaches could see this perception as a chance to separate your side from the pack.

If you believe he’s destined again in SuperCoach to average 115+ then based on averages that should likely place him inside the top tier of midfielders. One of the key errors coaches can make in calculating injuries to premiums is they failed to project they can use bench cover in the points deficit.

Could you trust your bench for those possible 2-3 weeks he might miss? Could those ’70’ scores cover you for that period of time? Who knows, you may get a Caleb Serong style 100 out of the blue.

Does Fyfe + bench cover outscore that premium that has a better injury history? Remembering that in SuperCoach, Fyfe is a legitimate captaincy option every week.

While Nat Fyfe is a SuperCoach captaincy option most weeks, I want nothing to do with him as a starting squad player. It has nothing to do with injury or role concerns, but everything to do with a specific early matchup.

In round 2 he comes up against the premium destroyer in Matt de Boer. However, the following rounds are enticing. In round 4 he plays Hawthorn (home), Adelaide (away), North (home), West Coast (away), Brisbane (home) & Essendon (away.) Outside of a likely date with Elliot Yeo in round 7 it’s a fairly inviting early run.

Normally, for a player of Nat’s injury history, I’d suggest that ‘if you don’t start with him (or insert any player with injury history) you cannot upgrade to them during the season’. The reason being is with every game played the ‘risk’ of that potential injury occurring only increases with every game played. However, I believe with Nat, it’s different on one caveat.

That is that if the reason you passed on him had nothing to do with his injury resume at all. But rather, you have chosen to initial pass based on a desire to trade him based on fixture analysis and nothing else.

Coaches who play DreamTeam, I believe he’s a pass in that format. A 105 isn’t a strong enough average, and I’m not convinced he can score much higher than that.

In AFLFantasy he’s a chance of gaining MID/FWD DPP should he spend enough time forward. While I’d never pick him in this format without it, having Fyfe as a forward would certainly put him in contention as a top 10 forward option.

DRAFT DECISION

In SuperCoach, Fyfe is an M1 but not a first-round selection. This year if you have a late range pick, there is every chance he’ll be available on the turn early in the second. I’d happily select him there as either an M1 or double down on the midfield and make him M2.

In AFLFantasy formats, I think the earliest you’ll have to jump for him is the fourth round. He could drift into the early fourth, but his name value let alone scoring potential would be why he doesn’t slide any further. A good M2 candidate and wouldn’t be the worst M1 if you’d locked away two superstar selections in the defence, forward or ruck line.

Keep an eye on his role, and if he spends enough time forward in UltimateFooty and AFLFantasy he could be awarded DPP. Then he becomes a lock top 6-10 forward.

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#33 Most Relevant | Luke Ryan

2020 was a breakout season for Luke Ryan. What fantasy footy coaches want to know, is was last year an outlier or the beginning of a new big name premium defender.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Luke Ryan
Age: 24
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Defender

2020 Highest Score: 
102 Vs Collingwood (AFLFantasy)
162 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
138 Vs GWS Giants | AFLFantasy (2017)
162 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average: 
70.5 (AFLFantasy) | 88.1 (Adjusted Average)
107.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $576,500
AFLFantasy Price: $673,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $651,200

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

When I think of Luke Ryan I think of a 200 game player entering into the twilight of his career. However, the reality is he’s just 24 and hasn’t even played 100 AFL games yet. The reason it feels like he’s so experienced is that ever since he’s entered the league he’s been a consistent and mature presence inside the Dockers backline.

Luke’s always been a reliable scorer and fine intercept defender, but in 2020 he took his game to the elite level. Last year he ranked first in AFL for rebound ’50s, 2nd for intercepts, 9th for kicks, 12th metres gained and 19th for total marks. These aren’t just ‘stats’ this highlights a defender who has multiple scoring columns. Something that all dependable premiums have.

From an AFLFantasy and DreamTeam perspective, he finished the season ranked 10th for points among all defenders and ranked by 18th for averages. Last year he averaged 70 (adjusted 88) scored over 100 once but posted 6 additional scores 80+. Remember in this format last year due to the length of quarters ’80 was the new 100.’

In SuperCoach Ryan was at another level and among the top defenders of the season. He ranked 3rd by averages & 2nd for points among all defenders. He averaged 107 which included 13 tons, 6 of them over 120 and had just 4 scores under 100 (all sub 70) all year.

Overall his season was amazing, but he did have a slow start with just just one score above 80 in the opening four games. However, from his final 13 games, he scored 12 tons. Incredible! For those that purchased him at his lowest of $471,000, they got a huge return on investment.

2020 was his best every fantasy footy season, but it’s far from a drastic scoring swing compared to his previous seasons. In 2019 for AFLFantasy and DreamTeam he averaged 80 and scored 5 tons, while the two seasons prior he averaged in the mid ’70s. For SuperCoach his 2019 finished with 95 as his average, including 6 tons and just 3 scores under 70. The two seasons prior he averaged 90 & 76.

Luke Ryan has displayed strong fantasy footy scoring tendencies, and at just 24 years of age, coaches should have confidence that he’s just starting to flex at the peak of his powers. Who knows, maybe he’s even got more growth in him.

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MY TAKE

Where did the scoring improvement come? Between his 2019 and 2020 seasonal averages, he jumped an adjusted 8 points per game in AFLFantasy and 12 in SuperCoach. Interestingly, he had a decrease in tackles & disposals while it was only his disposal efficiency (increase by 4%) and rebound ’50s per game that noticeably improved.

So why the increase? A case could be made that in SuperCoach, it was due to the way the game was scaled. But watching back the games back it’s hardly a mistake. He was a major factor for many of the Dockers effective rebounds and intercepting opposition attempts.

One potential cause for concern is that a few seasons ago the Dockers drafted Hayden Young. He’s a high quality user of the ball by foot and also builds his scoring through intercepts. If Young starts to take away some of Ryan’s kickouts or becomes an option for rebounds, we might see some scoring regression.

Luke Ryan is a genuine point of difference starting squad option in SuperCoach. Despite him sharing the same bye round of Rory Laird, Jake Lloyd and Jack Crisp he’s a viable option to go head to head against them. If your confident he can maintain his scoring, then it’s an option to consider genuinely. In a year when getting a unique premium back in the starting squad is rare, Ryan is a legitimate consideration.

He’s got the potential to push for a top 10 performer in AFLFantasy and DreamTeam, but he’s yet to show the big scoring ceiling in those formats consistently. So for me, I’ll target him as an upgrade.

DRAFT DECISION

If you play SuperCoach scoring formats of the game, then Luke Ryan is a genuine D1. He’ll be someone going off draft boards from as early as the overall pick between 15-30. In AFLFantasy scoring, he’ll rightly drift a little later but should be a safe D2 selection.

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