Midweek there was no inclination about what was to unfold across this weekend. Sure, the weather reports were telling us it’d be the coldest day of the year but no one warned us it would affect so many players this weekend.
The carnage didn’t start with the early round games, it came at team selection. The stress began when Matt Flynn was managed out of GWS. For those of us all-in on the Flying Flynn R2 ruck strategy were hit by a bouncer we didn’t see. We just hope it’s only one week of management rather than a few. For those risky Zac Williams owners Friday night only got worse as he was confirmed a no-show for the GCS game. And then for the Sunday games we’re told Rory Sloane could be out for a month with a rather concerning injury, and he was looking so good! Then perhaps the final straw of selection was Jacob Koschitzke out of the Hawks team, causing all sorts of defensive issues for us.
In terms of actual performances carnage didn’t arrive until Saturday. The Swans kept up their good performances and cash generation for us. Jordan Ridley did his thing. As did Jayden Short. And nothing particularly drastic occurred in the Power v Tigers match, although Orazio Fantasia owners are probably done with him.
But it was a Saturday special of poor performances by a number of players we expect better from that turned this weekend. Nearly 50,000 teams are filthy with Caleb Daniel and his 19 points. Yes, 19 points! And with 79% game time! And then late Sunday he gets one week from the MRO. I’m betting he’ll be the first rage trade for most this morning. Joe Daniher owners were expecting more than 34 points from 96% match time, especially now that the game is suited to key-forwards this year. Like the Bombers did last year it might be time to say bye bye. There are others too. I won’t mention Lachie Neale, but I will mention Jordan de Goey. Ouch.
As MJ and Kane talked about on last week’s podcast, it’s time to raise the issue of Josh Kelly in these weekly wrap-ups. Let’s face it, he’s not getting the scores we’re expecting from a premium midfielder, and we can place the blame for that squarely at Leon Cameron’s feet. Why on earth Kelly isn’t one of the main midfielders and chasing down everything everywhere is confusing to say the least. Kelly scores his best when he’s in the middle and the guts of the play, at the moment that’s not happening enough. He’s averaging 20 points less per game than he did last season (114.6). It’s killing me, as I’m sure it is those other 9300 coaches.
On Sunday we saw some good scores from the ruckmen – Gawn, Darcy, and O’Brien. Fyfe, Hall, Scholl, and Petracca all scored well for their respective sides. And it seemed like a more positive way to end the round. One must feel for Luke McDonald though, within minutes of his first game back for North he’s injured again. Unlucky for those 1437 coaches who had him in their side.
Given it’s now Round 4 it’s worth making a couple of points to finish this up.
First, the Bulldogs continue to share the points around and Macrae continues his excellent form. Adam Treloar also looks like he’s warmed up and settling into his new home as part of the setup there. The Saints turned it around this week and show that there are plenty of points in them when they’re on. Jack Steele is shooting up the rankings, each week scoring better than the last.
Second, there are some nice little POD’s beginning to emerge. Jack Bowes has put up some great numbers – 146, 114, 95, 107. Jarryd Lyons has tonned up each game he’s played – 100, 103,139, 113. Hugh Greenwood, as I mentioned last week, looks to have found form – 50, 79, 135, 155. And Toby Greene is worth considering given the GWS set up – 86, 93, 117, 120. As we begin to offload those rookies it’s a good time to think what POD’s we might pick up along the way.
Third, the coming week or two are vital in assessing your team and making the critical rookie downgrade trades. There are a number now struggling to meet their break-even. This is a time to analyse how best to milk that cash and maintain scoring.
Success in your draft league isn’t normally found in the opening handful of rounds. Rather it’s where coaches discover diamonds in the rough towards the end of the draft. As draft day approaches for coaches, I decided to share who I think are every AFL clubs best UltimateFooty sliders
One of the biggest positive things that came from the 2020 season for Adelaide was Lachie Sholl’s emergence. He offers two key quality traits that the Adelaide midfield has been crying out for. That being outside speed and classy ball use by foot.
His round 17 performance against Carlton last season was a nice sampler of his potential. He had 24 possessions, 2 goals and scored an 89 ( 111 adjusted) in UltimateFooty.
In the preseason, he has won the Crows time trial and the coaching staff has been desperate to get him playing across the wing. As a defensive eligible option, hoping for an average of 75+ isn’t out of the equation.
Joe Daniher | ADP 204
It’s a theme that you’ll see across these sliders. Forwards suck, so I’m seeing if can we get some late potential value rather than burning an early pick. Joe Daniher has had a faultless preseason and is seemingly finally getting the best out of his body. His 2017 season averaging 84.7 is a long time ago now, but it does highlight his scoring potential.
Normally picks beyond 200 are just purely speculative picks with an upside that often end up back in the player pool. So given his proven performance, it’s well worth a late pick.
I wrote about Joe Daniher earlier in the preseason. Read his article from the 50 Most Relevant here.
Will Setterfield | ADP 182
How a player ends a season can be a great indicator of how the coming season will track. And for those who draft Will Setterfield this season, they’ll be hoping that this is true. Last year his season average of 67 (83 adjusted) was fine, but it’s his final 7 games that would have coaches interested.
Between round 11 til seasons end he scored 77 (96), 70 (87), 92 (115), 91(113), 54 (67), 86 (107) and 93 (116). That’s a seven game average of 80 (100 adjusted.) You’ll take scoring like that in the middle of the draft, let alone this late.
Isaac Quaynor | ADP 179
Despite only playing 11 games of AFL footy, Isaac Quaynor has started to show promising signs. Both as a rebounding defender and as a fantasy footballer.
In round 14 against Carlton, he had 20 possessions, 5 marks, 5 tackles, and 84 (105 adjusted) in UltimateFooty. A fortnight later, against the Suns, delivered a 76 (95 adjusted).
It’s a small sample size, but the upside is there. Plus, Collingwood have always been a highly relevant and high scoring fantasy side.
Dyson Heppell | ADP 195
Don’t expect a return to the 100+ averages from Dyson Heppell. 2018 was the last time he delivered numbers that high, and while it’s not that long ago, alot has happened in those 2 seasons. Both on the injury front, and the players added to the Bombers midfield unit
Rather, the big potential value in Dyson is around an impending DPP allocation. In the offseason, Heppell has been training with the defenders, and the club wants the ball in his hands rebounding out of the defensive 50. If he picks up this allocation, he moves from being just ‘bench cover’ as a 75-85 midfielder to being an on-field D3/D4.
I wrote about Dyson Heppell earlier in the preseason. Read his article from the 50 Most Relevant here.
Hayden Young | ADP 242
5 games of AFL is a super small sample size, but in round 4 & 5 last year, Hayden Young owners would’ve spotted something special. His booming left boot returned scored 77 (96 adjusted) and 58 (72).
The dockers loved getting the ball in his hands and allowing him to set up the play with pinpoint precision. I think he’ll take another step towards fulfilling his fantasy potential, which will ultimately culminate in him being a long term premium for us in time.
Shaun Higgins | ADP 145
If your draft league has positional changes on, then Shaun Higgins is a must consider. His move to Geelong has him earmarked for the forward role previously held down by Gary Ablett.
At best, he gains a MID/FWD DPP and averages in the ’80s, making him a strong F2. At worst, he maintains a heavy midfield role, and he averages 90+. You really can’t lose.
Noah Anderson | ADP 197
It’s a rare talent that can bust out of the second year Blues. But it wouldn’t shock me at all to see Noah Anderson join the club and do it. In his final 4 games of the year, he averaged 71.5 (89 adjusted). Noah possesses both a damaging inside and outside game which makes him a perfect fantasy performer. He might not pop in 2021, but he’s as good a chance as anyone at a second year breakout.
Isaac Cumming | ADP 207
You could probably put Lachie Ash in this spot too. If you get the chance to handcuff them together, it should increase the pick delivery chances.
The GWS Giants defensive unit has undergone an offseason overhaul, with Heath Shaw, Aiden Corr and Zac Williams departing the club. This opens up plenty of opportunities for the talented youngster. Isaac uses the ball well by hand and foot & has a high footy IQ. Certainly someone with upside late in a draft.
Liam Shiels | ADP 205
I’m all for looking for ‘upside’ late in drafts, but sometimes in the hunt for the one in a thousand breakouts (aka Luke McDonald), we ignore other solid options. Liam Shiels has been a consistent performer over numerous seasons and has also shown that he can punch out some tasty tons in the right match.
Last seasons 67.7 average (84 adjusted) isn’t horrid. While the three seasons prior, he averaged 91, 97 & 95. Getting potential numbers like that in the 20th round of a draft is a steal. He’s certainly worth the pick as some bench depth, if nothing else.
James Harmes | ADP 160
As each day passes, the earlier it seems James Harmes is going in drafts. Why? Because the experiment of him playing in the backline is over. And the club has confirmed that he’ll return to the midfield. Just 12 months ago, he was coming off a 2019 season wherein the midfield her averaged 94. If he delivers numbers like that, he’s a genuine D1 and getting picked up in drafts at a position of a D5.
Luke Davies-Uniacke | ADP 193
As a junior, Luke Davies-Uniacke drew comparisons to Carlton and West Coast champion Chris Judd. Sadly, injuries haven’t been kind over the past few seasons to the former first round pick.
Now fit, he’s finally firing and ready to establish himself in the North midfield. LDU is an explosive midfielder and has elite stoppage traits. If it all clicks for him, he can push an average of 85-95.
Xavier Duursma | ADP 253
All the preseason hype is head towards both Zak Butters and Connor Rozee. And understandably so. However, I think coaches forget about the scoring potential of Xavier Duursma. In his second AFL game, he scored 102, and across the remainder of his debut season, he scored another ton plus an additional four scores between 90-99.
The third year breakout rule is in effect for the archer, and given his ADP, the potential upside is insane. He goes from being possible last selected players, to being an on field midfielder.
Toby Nankervis | ADP 169
The knee injury to Ivan Soldo means the Tigers will likely leave Toby Nankervis as a sole ruck for the season, with various talls playing a supporting role. In 2017 & 2018, when the Tigers adopted this strategy, Toby averaged 86 & 89 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 88 & 98 in SuperCoach.
If you choose or are unable to get one of Brodie Grundy, Reilly O’Brien or Max Gawn in your draft, then getting Nank as a late pickup is a handy target.
Sebastian Ross | ADP 221
All it takes is for a couple of injuries in the St Kilda side, and the relevance of Seb Ross will bolt. While you’d never wish injuries on anyone, the Saints have their fair share of ‘injury prone’ midfielders. Recruit Brad Crouch and Dan Hannebery have missed plenty of footy over the last 3 seasons. Should either miss big chunks of this season, then Seb could well get pushed back into a core midfield role.
Between 2016-2019 he averaged 98, 102, 107 & 94. At this point of the draft, where he’s basically last picked in your team, there is now risk. And he doesn’t just have ‘potential’; he’s a proven performer. When looking for upside, the ‘proven’ is a better pick than the ‘potential’ scorer.
Lance Franklin | ADP 214
Are you a forward? And do you have the potential to score over 80? If so, coaches will consider you on draft day! The scoring history of Lance Franklin even at 1,000 years old isn’t the concern. Rather it’s on his durability. But at this point of the draft, it’s all upside.
I wrote about Lance Franklin earlier in the preseason. Read his article from the 50 Most Relevant here.
Luke Shuey | ADP 122
It isn’t a ‘flashy’ pick, nor is ita drastically ‘late’ pick. But given what Luke Shuey can do, it’d be a great get to get him even at his ADP on draft day. Before 2020, Luke was an incredibly durable player, and his scoring consistency was incredibly reliable.
Between 2015-2019 he missed just 6 games and averaged 93, 94, 99, 98, 87 & 101. You can put down his poor scoring of last year due to a few injury niggles and nothing more. A fit Shuey will become one of the best picks on the draft day given his return at this point in a draft.
Mitch Wallis | ADP 221
Thin pickings here, most dogs you want OK, draft coaches, you know it, but the forward stocks in 2021 suck. So it’s players with job security and scoring potential that can pop that we’re looking at later in the draft. The Bulldogs new Vice-Captain Mitch Wallis won’t get any midfield time, but he’s safely inside the Dogs best. However, because so much of his scoring is based on tackles and goals, if the Doggies can dominate the inside 50 game, he should turn in several 70-90+ scoring games.
Just twelve months after his failed attempt to depart Essendon, Joe Daniher has finally got the football restart he wanted at a new club. At Brisbane, can this son of a gun bounce back to his scoring best?
PLAYER PROFILE
Name: Joe Daniher Age: 26 Club: Brisbane Lions Position: Forward
2020 Highest Score: 85 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy) 103 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)
Career Highest Score: 127 Vs Western Bulldogs | AFLFantasy (2017) 134 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2016)
It’s an understatement to suggest that the past three season for Joe Daniher haven’t exactly gone to plan. Since 2018 the key position forward has played fifteen of a possible sixty one games, with a season high of seven games in that period of time.
The reason for missing multiple games across each season is simple. Injury. Since playing 22 games back in 2017 has battled through osteitis pubis and along the way has had numerous setbacks. What long term and consistent injuries do to fantasy coaches is two things.
Firstly, it scares people off selecting him with the belief that history will repeat itself and that Joe will be moments away from his body, breaking down. Second, and more importantly, is it makes us forget the talent and ability of the player.
Despite just four games last season, it was in round 14 we got a reminder of his ability to impact a game and deliver. In that game against the Hawks, he took ten marks, five were inside 50 and three contested. He had eight score involvements, kick 3.3 and finished the game with a 103 in SuperCoach and 85 (adjusted 106) in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.
These score echo that what he was able to score in 2017. That year he played every game, and in SuperCoach he averaged a career-best season of 86. That 86 included going 90+ on nine occasions, six times over 100, including a five-goal haul and a 124 point match against the Eagles.
While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam coaches he boosted his previous seasons average by 13 points up to a best of 85. That seasonal average included 11 scores north of 90, including 6 tons.
Like all key positions forwards he does require bags of goals to accumulate his scores, it’s important to note that from his 22 games he kicked 3 or more goals in 14 matches. Not a bad conversions rate. Thankfully, the Lions don’t just intend to plonk him inside forward 50.
Brisbane have declared publicly on multiple occasions they intend to use Joe as a relief ruckman to big Oscar Mcinerney. This is good news, as Joe’s previously rarely been used outside of forward 50 continuously. If this role eventuates, Daniher will now have a whole new realm of scoring available to him.
No longer will his scoring be entirely linked to his ability to kick bags. Now he’ll have centre bounces, stoppages and through the ground general play to boost his scoring.
Speaking of the Lions, the club has been able to do wonders for other players that have struggled to get consistently onto the park. A quick look back at former Cat and now Lion Lincoln McCarthy would remind us of his physical transformation since moving clubs. Between 2017-2018 he played just five games for Geelong, but he’s played 37 of a possible 39 home and away games since being a Lion.
The story is similar to Grant Birchall, in 2018-2019 at Hawthorn, he played eight games. While in his one season at Brisbane he played 14 of a possible 17 games. The medical and conditioning staff at the Lions should be applauded for the work they’ve done. Given their current history, I’d be backing them in to get Joe back to full health.
At his starting price point, he’s more than half that of Steele Sidebottom and Patrick Dangerfield. That’s some huge potential upside if he and his new Lions can get off to a strong start. If you’ve tried to build a team at the moment, you’d quickly realise that significant value is needing to be found on multiple lines to feel like you have a side that resembles competitiveness. Players like Daniher will play a valuable stepping stone role in 2021.
Speaking of the half, Daniher ‘s SuperCoach average last year 48 was approximately 40 points beneath that which he delivered in 2017. While in AFLFantasy it’s nearly 25 points per game. That’s supreme value if he can return anything near that this season.
One of The Coaches Panel’s regular mantras is that every game’s format requires a different strategy. Sometimes it means certain players are only relevant in a single format. While for others, they are genuine candidates no matter what.
In the case of Joe Daniher, it is SuperCoach that he’s at his peak of return on investment. There he’s priced just $30,000 over new bulldog Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. In this format, the risk is almost non-existent at that price, for that financial output you’re getting a proven commodity when normally you’re getting some untried.
Joe’s still worth considering in AFLFantasy and DreamTeam, but the question coaches will need to ponder is ‘can I get a comparable scoring output for a player with less risk at a cheaper output’? Furthermore, even with some ruck time, talls notoriously have a large scoring variance. From any week it could be 100 points depending on how often he converts his chances.
I like the inclusion of Daniher into the Lions side because he should get himself better opportunities to convert on the scoreboard due to that star-studded Brisbane midfield. For years his former side has lacked the clearance ball winners that have enabled a quick inside 50 entry, especially from the centre bounce.
With Lachie Neale, Dayne Zorko, Jarryd Lyons, Hugh McCluggage and JarrodBerry rotating through the middle that won’t be an issue anymore. Given Joe’s marking strength both in contests and on the lead, we should see countless quick entry opportunities.
Brisbane have their scheduled bye in round 13 right in the middle of the MBR’s. That provides coaches that do start him with the opportunity to play him for the first twelve weeks, and then flip him to a premium forward coming off the bye.
Players like Patrick Dangerfield and Toby Greene as arguably the most prominent scoring candidates. Other options could be Connor Rozee, Jack Ziebell or Zac Butters. All will score well in 2021 if given the midfield minutes to succeed.
The elephant in the room is his durability, and on recent form at Essendon, coaches can have zero confidence he can get through a full season. Thankfully, as a fantasy coach, you don’t need him too. Anywhere from 6-12 weeks is what you need.
With a player like Joe, you need to identify why you won’t start him. Is it because you believe at his new side he won’t score well? I’d propose that a forecasted scoring dip isn’t a founded reason to pass in him. That’s an unfounded assumption right now.
Is he priced too awkwardly (especially in DT/AF) to given you the cash generation and scoring your looking for? Does he not fit your starting squad structure or strategy? Do you believe you can get a better performer cheaper? Certianly I’d be much more easily convinced to endorse these reason as to why you’d miss selecting him.
The major reason across formats to rule out Joe is his durability. It’s certainly a factor. If that’s the reason for passing then my encouragement for you would then be consistent with that across your squad. So that would mean missing on guys like Josh Kelly, Lance Franklin, Toby Greene and Zac Williams who all have a poor ‘injury history.’
Don’t pick and choose reasons for some and not for others, be consistent across how and why you choose the players that you do.
SuperCoach is an easy decision for me. If Joe Daniher gets through the preseason unscathed, then he’s a lock in my starting squad. At the price point, I see no risk. In AFLFantasy he’s still on the watchlist, while DreamTeam I’m likely to pass.
DRAFT DECISION
Similar to yesterday’s player revealed Lance Franklin, Big Joe is a perfect mid to late teen rounds of your draft selection. Here, coaches often look for flyers and value picks, which can have a minimal negative impact on your year.
At best, he flies and becomes a draft bolter that establishes a strong season for you. Conversely, he is a late round pick you discard into the pool which is common in this portion of draft day.
JOIN THE CONVERSATION
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Career High SuperCoach Score: 134 Vs Carlton (2016)
Career High AFLFantasy Score: 127 Vs Western Bulldogs (2017)
Career High SuperCoach Average: 86 (2017)
Career High AFLFantasy Average: 84.7 (2017)
ImpactonNewClub
Seven, Four, Four and twenty-two. No, this isn’t the upcoming Powerball numbers, but rather the total of games played for Joe Daniher over the previous four seasons. Joe’s impact on the club will clearly be linked to the ability of him to get out on the field.
Thankfully, the club’s recent history with Lincoln McCarthy and Grant Birchall should give Lions fans (and Joe) hope they can get him cherry ripe. Should this take place the Lions have just netted themselves one of the most damaging key position forwards in the game with only Jeremy Cameron, Tom Hawkins and Tom Lynch the only clearly well ahead of him.
Joe’s a damaging field kick, a strong overheard mark and can more than hold his own in a physical one on one contests. His introduction into the Lions forward line is massive as it allows Eric Hipwood to no longer get manned up by oppositions best key defender.
Equally, the always aerially damaging Dan McStay get the third-best tall. These flow-on effects (along with the impact of Joe himself) will make what an already potent forward line (especially when you include Charlie Cameron and Dayne Zorko) even scarier for opposition sides was.
ImpactonOldClub
It’s a dichotomy as it’s both a major problem and a minimal impact. The reason for the latter is that Daniher has only played 15 games over the past three seasons. For Essendon, they’ve had more time playing without him than with during that time.
As a result, the club has had to adjust with no Joe. Positively, they’ve learnt to deal without him. Negatively, there isn’t anything on the list currently that fills me with confidence in the tall forward stocks.
Essendon has already let some reasonable covering options depart in the past with the serviceable Mitch Brown and Shaun McKernan being delisted from the club.
Alot of responsibility might land on the shoulder of hot and cold medium forward Jake Stringer, third-string tall James Stewart and young key tall Harrison Jones. T
he Bombers best bet might be finding a way to move up the draft and give themselves a chance at one of Logan McDonald or Riley Tilthorpe. The big issue with that being all of Sydney, Adelaide, Hawthorn & North Melbourne all have a pick ahead of them, and equally, all could use one of the best key talls in the draft.
I know this is coming across negatively on the Dons, but sadly I don’t see the key stocks on the draft board available, nor do they appear to be in the mix to trade any in to fix the lack of key position posts upfront. It could be a painful few more years Bombers fans.
FantasySummary
Everything with his fantasy relevance Daniher hangs on his ability to be fit and healthy. As we’ve discussed, the Lions have a strong recent record of helping players overcome ongoing injury concerns.
From a SuperCoach and AFLFantasy perspective, one only needs to look at his 2017 season to see his potential. In AFLFantasy he averaged just shy of 85, it featured eleven scores 90+ including seven tons. And for SuperCoach he had nine scores 90+ including six tons.
Given he only played four matches this season, he’ll receive a discount on top of his lowly 48 average of 48, which is about 35 points below his peak season of 2017.
He’ll present plenty of value in all formats of the game, and as a late-round draft pick he could easily pop into a top 25 ranked forward.
Brisbane have indicated that he’ll play a split forward and ruck role. Meaning, he’ll get a nice little scoring boost with the occasional hitout and clearance opportunity. The other factor, is we expect several last seasons big forwards to disappear.
It means we might need to look at these stepping stone forwards more closely in salary cap formats of the game. It’s something to ponder for now anyway.
The Cats and Bombers kicked off the second week of JLT matches under lights at a chilly GMHBA Stadium. For fantasy coaches, this was our last chance to get a look at some very relevant players, and we learnt plenty from the match.
Gary Ablett
Just under 70% game time for the goat, but did some nice things with his limited time on the ball. At times he looked a little lost in the role inside forward 50, but to be fair Gazza was blowing out any preseason cobwebs with the match. Sadly with him playing the majority of game time forward, he’s not a viable starter in your team.
Gyran Miers
I love what he brings to the Cats line up with the potent combination of defensive pressure and XFactor. The departure of Lincoln McCarthy has opened up a small forward role, and right now Miers is doing everything directly to grab it. Keep an eye on this cash cow, he doesn’t have a huge ceiling, but I think he has robust job security.
Patrick Dangerfield
Sigh! Do we really need to do this, he honestly has to be in your side. Five clearances, ten inside ’50s, eight score involvements and 30 disposals all of 3/4 of footy. Just do it… Pick him!
Charlie Constable
Played just 50% game time but look super impressive and played liked he belonged inside the Geelong midfield unit. Five clearances, nine of his 17 possessions were contested, barring something drastic I think we’ve got a big basement priced cash cow capable of playing on the field.
Tim Kelly
Five clearances, five inside ’50s, 28 disposals and the dilemma for fantasy coaches is no to ponder whether or not Tim Kelly is a genuine top 6 averaging forward in 2019. If he maintains the midfield minutes from tonight across the season, then he must be in the conversation.
Jordan Clark
Last week he came onto Fantasy coaches radar with a strong debut performance for the club. He backed it up again tonight with five rebounds 50’s and making good decisions in traffic and space vast beyond his experience. The Cats have a ripper, and even when Zac Tuohy comes back into the side from injury, I can see him maintaining his time in the team.
Joel Selwood
Wound back the clock with a vintage performance. Selwood started on the wing lined up against Dyson Heppell but quickly inserted himself into the centre bounces. 38 disposals, 7 tackles and a huge 11 marks for the Geelong captain reminded fantasy coaches than when he’s given the time and space he can score as well as anyone.
Didn’t play any of the first quarter and ended up playing just 59% of the match. In that time he managed 23 possessions, six clearances and three inside ’50s. I think if you were looking for reasons not to start him you probably found them. Even though he won plenty of the ball his lack of tackle pressure and marks in a very open game could send alarm bells ringing. Equally, if you were already bullish about him, this game would’ve given reason to be optimistic that he’s ready to explode in 2019.
Dyson Heppell
Has been a fantasy scorer historically (all be it pre supplement scandal), but the arrival of Dylan Shiel should allow him to fly even further under the radar. Got plenty of uncontested ball and wouldn’t be the worst unique starting squad option if you want someone with no ownership.
Joe Daniher
Still working his way back to full fitness, took some nice contested grabs but most encouragingly he spent some time as a relief ruckman. Whether that was due to help get some more time into his body or is a genuine role the Whoosha wants to let him grow into we’ll have to wait until the round one side is named. At this stage it’s SuperCoach only he should still be tempting you, but given his preseason I can understand you looking elsewhere.
Devon Smith
Like many Bombers he’s still making his way back to full fitness. I saw nothing this week that would give me the confidence to start him in any format of the game. Make him an upgrade target, based on his preseason you cannot start him.
Jordan Ridley
Has come on in leaps and this preseason and is indeed building a case to be locked into the Dons best 22. Nine of his 17 possessions were contested, five rebound 50’s and a goal to top it all off. As a cash cow, he’s a little pricey as a defender, but he’s certainly showed over the JLT Series that he could score well.
Andrew McGrath
This kid is a future star of the competition. I love the role he has within the side as a wingman and will have some fantasy relevance for many years to come. He’s worthy a sneaky AFLFantasy starting squad spot 😉
At the verge of entering the 2018 season, Essendon’s prized key position forward looked set to dominate the AFL season. However, a nagging groin injury started to impact his ability to deliver so the Bombers took a cautious approach and ended his season. The one positive is, for fantasy coaches in 2019 we could have an absolute bargain on our hands.
PLAYER PROFILE
Name: Joe Daniher Age: 24 Club: Essendon Bombers Position: Forward
2018 Highest Score: 104 Vs Collingwood (AFLFantasy) 93 Vs Port Adelaide (SuperCoach) 2018 Average: 63.8 (AFLFantasy) 56.8 (SuperCoach)
Entering into the 2018 season SuperCoach players and especially Essendon fans were salivating at the possibilities of what Joe Daniher could bring to the football field. And it was with good reason, 5 years into his career and Joe was starting to deliver on the big stage consistently, not just for the odd game, or patches in games. Daniher wasn’t just impacting the games around the ground but inside 50 and on the scoreboard. Despite missing plenty of shots, he still converted through the big sticks at only over 62% and narrowly missed winning his first ever Coleman Medal in 2017.
A look into his 2017 fantasy numbers further confirms this. For SuperCoach he averaged a career-best season of 86, a jump of almost 20 points from his personal best. That year he scored 90+ on nine occasions, six times over 100, including a five-goal haul and a 124 point match against the Eagles. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam coaches he boosted his previous seasons average by 13 points up to a best of 85. That seasonal average included 11 scores north of 90, including 6 tons. While like all key positions forwards he does require bags of goals to accumulate his scores, it’s important to note that from his 22 games he kicked 3 or more goals in 14 matches. Not a bad conversions rate.
Sadly for coaches that jumped on the Daniher train in 2018, it derailed incredibly quickly. A nagging groin injury not only hurt his ability to impact in the match but also to the fact that after seven games he was sent in for surgery and missed the remainder of Essendon’s season.
However, let’s look at the silver lining. The positive for coaches is he is priced with a discount after playing just seven games, and that’s already on an average that was between 20-30 points below his average the year before. If Joe can get himself fully fit and firing this preseason, I struggle to see a world where he doesn’t bounce back at least to the mid 80’s average of 2017. Every chance that it may even be more given some to be expected natural improvement and the significant boost Dylan Shiel will bring to the midfield unit of Essendon.
If any fantasy coach is considering a ‘stepping stone’ or ‘breakout’ option in the forward line, especially for SuperCoach, then you must seriously consider big Joe!
MY TAKE
Confession Time. On my original 50 most relevant back in November I had Joe considerably higher than the high 40’s range he now sits in. He was verging on being inside the top 25 given all of the scoring history and natural development expected of such a quality key position forward. However, several weeks ago AFL writer Cal Twomey wrote an article (click here to read it) suggesting that Joe was in doubt for round one. While he still has months before the season proper gets underway to be fit, this far out it certainly screams alarm bells for fantasy coaches given that in mid-December the club is still unsure if he’ll play round 1.
While at his price he’s verging on a glorified cash cow in SuperCoach for DreamTeam & AFLFantasy coaches for Joe to reach his relevance peak then he needs to play round 1. The reason being is why he does have the potential to be a 90+ averaging forward across the formats he faces stiff competition of being a likely top 6-10 averaging forward.
Patrick Dangerfield, Isaac Heeny, Josh Dunkley, Toby McLean, Devon Smith, Sam Menegola and Lance Franklin all lay strong claims to be in the top bracket, and that’s before considering other viable candidates like Jack Billings, Jesse Hogan, Tim Kelly and even new hawk Chad Wingard pushing for a top 10 spot. Can you have confidence that Joe will average more than them? Possible, yes, but not overwhelming confidence that he’ll better their annual output. I truly believe while starting squads are essential for success for fantasy coaches, the real winners and losers come from the trades they make during the season.
To trade him into your side in DreamTeam or AFLFantasy as an ‘upgrade’ takes more faith than riding him like a breakout or stepping stone option which he’d start as in your side as.
His relevance is very high, higher than where I’ve placed him if he plays through some JLT and gets named round 1. If he does deliver premium numbers and he becomes someone you keep, happy days you’ve got a value premium, if not you bank the points and cash he generates you along the way. I always forecast that with any midprice selections I need to plan to trade that player at some point, I may never need to (e.g. coaches who started with Clayton Oliver 2 years back) but I need to be prepared for it.
If he plays JLT and gets named round 1, he’s virtually a SuperCoach lock for me and will be for many SC players. While in the other formats I’ll consider it. Even if he’s not right in round 1, at some point in the season if he’s fit, I’m aboard the Daniher train in SuperCoach.
Joe’s a hard one to land, and depending on the format he’s likely to vary where he’s selected. On potential, he could be a clear F2, 90 average in your side, but I wouldn’t be drafting him that high. In reality, for seasonal drafts, he’s probably not selected inside the top 100 selections and is someone you might even be able to draft inside the early teen rounds depending on the knowledge and quality of coaches your up against.
Keeper leagues it’s a different story altogether, given his age and the fact he’ll retain forward status for his career I wouldn’t feel it’s out of place to consider selecting Joe inside the top 70 picks. That said, I’d be confident that you should be able to get him considerably later than that given he’s only had one fantasy relevant season of note.
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