Tag: Rory Laird

#4 Most Relevant | Rory Laird

Discover why Rory Laird’s unparalleled consistency, strategic Round 15 bye advantage, and resilience amidst Adelaide’s evolution make him an indispensable top-tier midfield choice in SuperCoach & AFLFantasy for 2024.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Rory Laird is a quintessential example of consistency and excellence in the AFL. Known for his tireless work rate, precise ball use, and exceptional ability to read the play, Laird has established himself as one of the competition’s premier midfielders. His prowess around stoppages and high disposal count, often at elite efficiency rates, make him a critical cog in the Adelaide Crows’ engine room.

Beyond just gathering possessions, Laird’s defensive background affords him a robust tackling game, ensuring he contributes significantly on both offence and defence. In 2023, Laird’s performance continued to shine, underpinning his reputation as a player who can consistently influence the outcome of a match through his relentless pursuit of the football and his ability to deliver it effectively to teammates.

In the 2023 season, he further cemented his status as one of the AFL’s elite midfielders, showcasing his exceptional ability to impact games across multiple statistical categories. His prowess in the midfield is underscored by his ranking in the top five for handballs and centre clearances. It tackles per game, illustrating his ball-winning capability, tenacity, and defensive effort. Additionally, Laird’s significance in Adelaide’s midfield dynamics is highlighted by his top-ten ranking in disposals, contested possessions, and effective disposals, demonstrating his efficiency and reliability in possession.

Regarding fantasy football, Laird’s performance in AFLFantasy and SuperCoach was strong. In AFLFantasy, he averaged 109.2 points per game, delivering 17 tons throughout the season, with seven scores over 120 and a peak score 142, showcasing his ability to hit high-scoring ceilings. Remarkably, apart from an anomaly in round one, where he scored a 57, Laird consistently delivered high scores, underpinning his reliability as a premium fantasy option.

His fantasy prowess was equally evident in SuperCoach, where he averaged 116.8 points per game, amassing 17 tons, including ten scores over 120 and two spectacular performances over 150. Like AFLFantasy, Laird’s scoring was remarkably consistent, with only one score under 80, further highlighting his status as a top-tier midfielder in fantasy formats. His impressive rankings in total points and average across both AFLFantasy and SuperCoach affirm his essential role in fantasy teams, making him a coveted player for fantasy coaches aiming for success.

Rory Laird’s exceptional consistency and high-scoring potential make him a compelling option for any AFLFantasy and SuperCoach starting squad. His ability to consistently score well, evidenced by his numerous tons and minimal scores under 80, highlights his reliability week in and week out. This reliability is valuable in fantasy football, where consistent high scorers can be the difference between winning and losing matchups.

Moreover, Laird’s involvement in the midfield, particularly his top rankings in handballs, centre clearances, and tackles per game, ensures he is heavily involved in the play. This involvement increases his scoring potential through disposals, contested possessions, and defensive actions like tackles, which are highly valued in both AFLFantasy and SuperCoach scoring systems.

Laird’s role in Adelaide’s midfield is consistent despite the movements of other players around him, like Matt Crouch and Jordan Dawson. Suggesting his scoring should remain robust. His scoring isn’t just about gathering possessions; his effective use of the ball and his ability to contribute significantly to Adelaide’s play makes him a valuable fantasy asset. Given his track record of elite fantasy performances and his crucial role for the Crows, Laird is the type of player who provides a solid foundation for any fantasy team.

Starting with a player of Laird’s calibre allows fantasy coaches to set and forget a premium midfielder, enabling them to focus on other areas of their team that may require more attention or carry more risk. With Laird, you’re not just investing in a player but inconsistent, high-level performance that can anchor your fantasy team throughout the season.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Examining Rory Laird’s scoring patterns over the past two seasons raises an intriguing question about the relationship between his scoring ceiling and the overall improvement of the Adelaide Crows. In SuperCoach, while Laird’s total number of tons remained relatively consistent (18 in 2022 and 17 in 2023), there’s a notable decrease in the frequency of his scores above 120, dropping from 14 occurrences in 2022 to 10 in 2023. Similarly, in AFLFantasy, Laird matched his ton tally in both years with 17, but the instances of crossing the 120-point threshold decreased from 12 in 2022 to 7 in 2023.

This trend prompts speculation about whether Laird’s slightly diminished ceiling is a byproduct of Adelaide’s collective improvement. As the team’s performance enhances, scoring opportunities become more equitable among players, potentially reducing the need for Laird to shoulder as much of the fantasy scoring burden. While his ability to consistently hit ton figures demonstrates his reliability as a fantasy asset, the slight dip in his higher-end scoring outings might suggest normalising his fantasy output as the Crows’ midfield depth and overall team capability increase.

Yet, it’s essential to consider that despite these shifts, Laird remains an elite fantasy option due to his high floor. The consistency of his scoring and his integral role in the Crows’ setup ensures he’s still among the top fantasy picks. The observed changes might not indicate a “drying up” of his scoring ceiling but rather an adjustment phase as Adelaide evolves into a more balanced team. For fantasy coaches, while Laird continues to be a cornerstone player, strategic considerations around Adelaide’s growth and its impact on Laird’s ceiling may influence decisions on leveraging him as a captaincy option or when aiming for those big, game-winning scores in tight fantasy matchups.

The question of whether Laird is a slow starter can be dissected by analysing his performance in the first six rounds compared to the rest of the season over the past three years. Looking at the numbers, a discernible pattern suggests Laird does indeed ramp up his scoring as the season progresses.

In AFLFantasy, Laird’s averages in the first six rounds of the past three seasons (2023: 100.6, 2022: 109.6, 2021: 105.1) demonstrate solid performance but are noticeably lower than his averages for the remainder of each year (2023: 112.4, 2022: 124.9, 2021: 114.1). Similarly, in SuperCoach, the trend is evident with his early season averages (2023: 111.5, 2022: 119.6, 2021: 104.6) compared to his averages for the rest of the season (2023: 118.8, 2022: 131.3, 2021: 120.5).

The case for selecting Rory Laird in your fantasy football team hinges on several key factors, including his consistent improvement as the season progresses, his role within an evolving Adelaide Crows lineup, and the strategic advantage his bye-round offers.

Laird’s fantasy output has historically increased as the season unfolds, indicating that he warms up to peak performance, making him a reliable asset for the long haul. This trend suggests that initial patience with Laird could pay dividends, particularly as he’s priced closely to his season average. The concern that Laird’s output might diminish as the Crows improve is valid but unfounded.

Laird has proven himself capable of maintaining high scores regardless of the team’s overall performance. His role as a central figure in the Crows’ midfield, especially in contests and clearances, underpins his scoring potential.

Including Matt Crouch in the Crows lineup could be seen as a threat to Laird’s scoring opportunities. However, the statistics from the last five games they played together show Laird maintaining a high scoring rate, suggesting that Crouch’s presence may not significantly detract from Laird’s fantasy output.

Laird’s Round 15 bye is another strategic advantage, as it allows fantasy coaches to utilize him during the crucial early and mid-season rounds without worrying about finding a replacement. This availability, coupled with his history of high scores, makes him an attractive captaincy option, offering consistent, high-point returns each week.

Embed from Getty Images

DRAFT DECISION

Rory Laird holds an M1 status in AFLFantasy and SuperCoach, presenting himself as a top-tier first-round draft option. Laird offers a compelling choice for coaches holding a mid to late first-round pick, bringing a blend of consistency, scoring potential, and reliability that is hard to match.

His proven track record of high fantasy scoring and his central role in Adelaide’s midfield make him an asset that can anchor any fantasy midfield from the outset. Choosing Laird in the draft is about securing a player and investing in a cornerstone to build a competitive fantasy team for the season ahead.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say on our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the crowd here.

What to do with Clayton Oliver?

Sunday evening, the Herald Sun confirmed what had, until that point, been a rumour. The newspaper reported that Clayton Oliver had suffered a hamstring injury and could miss up to four weeks of football. As a result, the fantasy community now has one of the best scorers of the season unavailable and teams are left pondering what to do with Clayton Oliver? 

Embed from Getty Images

You Can Hold

Can you hold Clayton Oliver? Yes! It might seem odd to do it, but there’s genuinely a world where this could be a play. One of the reasons behind it is that Melbourne is yet to confirm the severity of the hamstring. That he could play out the last quarter with a hamstring injury might lend itself to not being a severe or a traditional injury. In 2023, we’ve already seen players like Sam Docherty and Tom Stewart return from injury well ahead of previously communicated timelines. This is Clayton’s first in-season soft tissue injury in his AFL career, so you could find a level of optimism to hold.

It is risky to play this out, especially in AFLFantasy, but that doesn’t mean it should be immediately discounted as a play. For example, if you are an Ollie Hollands owner, you could loophole his score from the bench with the Blues playing Friday night. A 70+ score is well within his capacity, which might be enough if you can continue an upgrade cadence with your other non-forced trades around it. Unquestionably you’ll need some luck to make this playout work, but at the very least, you must look at the option.

Holding him in DreamTeam and SuperCoach is a more viable play than AFLFantasy due to the limited number of trades available and the upcoming bye rounds. In these limited trade formats, I don’t know of any team with 20+ trades left, with many remaining in the middle portion of the teens. Coaches have to ask themselves in trading out of Clayton whether they will be able to find the cash generation and trade capital to get him after he returns from injury. In an ideal world, I don’t think anyone wants not to own Oliver in the run home. So choosing to trade out means you must create a pathway to owning him again. Something easier said than done.

Another element that we could hold is the impending multi-bye rounds. In SuperCoach & DreamTeam, we’ll run with a best 18 on the field during rounds 12 & 13 before. And thankfully, with only four & two teams respectively missing, they are arguably the two easier bye rounds to navigate without him. So yes, you’ll potentially have three weeks down on the premium output, but the fielding of the best 18 scorers in these bye rounds does minimise the impact for on-field scoring.

Do you have to hold? No! Do you have to trade? No! There are multiple ways of playing this game, and multiple approaches can and have resulted in success. The key here is to know yourself, your team, your appetite for risk & the outcomes you’re aiming for.

Imperfect Timing

There is never a good time for a player of Clayton’s scoring to be missing. The one upside is that owners who’ve had him for the majority of the year have been able to bank his phenomenal scoring and now have the salary space on top of him to be able to afford anyone they desire across any line.

The annoying part of the timing is that some of the best options ripe for the picking have next week off with their teams bye round. For example, Jack Steele looked like a million dollars and, due to a few injury-related hiccups, looks back to his best. Similarly, Andrew Brayshaw looks to have gotten over his sore knee after scoring well in the previous two weeks. Throw in Jack Sinclair, Lachie Neale, Luke Parker and Caleb Serong; we have many nice options.

They’re still all in play for teams with a league focus and don’t play through the byes. But if your focus is ranks, I cannot advocate trading into someone who’ll only be available for one week rather than the next.

Captaincy Consideration

Have you done some bye-round planning yet? And by that, have you created a visualisation plan of what your team looks like both now and again heading into round 16? While you might still need to complete the puzzle pieces, have you got the cadence and plans set up so that you know what the rhythm of your trades looks like? If not, I encourage you to do so as a matter of urgency.

Creating a plan like this makes life so much easier for many reasons, but for one of them, it helps inform the pathway to a ‘complete team.’ Some might be tempted to use the cash on top of Oliver to move him from one elite premium and split it into a couple of ‘almost’ or ‘hopeful’ premiums. While I understand the intention behind it, the reality is I couldn’t advocate for that as a strategy.

With Clayton Oliver, you have one of the most reliable 100+ scorers and someone who, in 2023 and years prior, has been one of the safest performers going around. It’s why often he’s had either the VC or C left on him for the year. But, regardless of a tag, the weather, the opponent or the game scenario, he finds ways to score well.

Everyone plays the game differently, and that’s the beauty of it. However, I’d only advocate trading Oliver to someone you feel comfortable placing the C or VC on most weeks. Don’t skinny down your captaincy options to try and force a completed side faster. Oliver is one of the best in the game, and I’d only be considering options that are inside the same scoring criteria.

Embed from Getty Images

Popular Moves

Saturday night, there were two types of fantasy footy coaches: Zach Merrett owners and those without him. Merrett posted a monster 158 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 162 in SuperCoach against Richmond. He does make an obvious addition with matches against West Coast, North Melbourne and Carlton until his bye week off. Throw in that he maintains your bye structure, presenting a compelling case for trading into him.

The only caveat I’d throw in here is that historically players coming off the back of such a dominating game like this often receive extra attention from the opposition the next week. Don’t be surprised if the Eagles go all out to limit the impact of Zach. West Coast has been using a tagger recently, so don’t be surprised if one comes. It’s not a reason to fade him as an option, but coaches should know it is a possible outcome.

How many more weeks will people find a reason not to trade into Rory Laird? He’s coming off the back of six consecutive tons in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and hasn’t dropped his scores under 97 in SuperCoach since round two. He’s bottomed out, with him just starting to make back some of the money he leaked due to a poor round one and a few red-vested ‘precautionary’ games.

There is still some concern in the community that his ‘calf niggle‘ is still an issue, but the reality is all we can do is make decisions with our information. And we have a player averaging 114 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and SuperCoach in the past five, and he is moving well. If you’ve gone this far without Laird, this Oliver injury could present the last ‘cheap’ space to trade into him.

Later in the week, I’ll release an article about some potential DPPs that’ll be added to the game next, but I’m optimistic we’ll receive Sam Walsh as a forward. Currently averaging over 110 across the formats, he looms as a genuine threat to Tim Taranto and Josh Dunkley as the top-averaging forward of the year. Getting your hands on higher-priced players like Walsh can be hard, but with Clayton’s injury, this could open up an easier path to getting him.

Is 2023 the year that Marcus Bontempelli finally wins himself a Brownlow Medal? After being an elite performer for most of his career, it’s finally translating to all formats of fantasy footy this year. Over multiple years ‘Bont’ has always been a top-tier scoring performer in SuperCoach, but he’s gone to another level this year. Nine tons from his ten matches, three scores over 140, and an average of 128 alongside him currently being the top scorer in the game make it hard not to desire to own him. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s ranked seventh highest for averages amongst pure midfielders, eighth for total points and hasn’t dropped his scoring under 90 all year. Throw in his five-round average of 119, and it’s pretty good reading.

Lastly, one demon down and another step up? That could be the case for Christian Petracca. In SuperCoach, he’s ranked sixth overall for total points, seventh by average and is on a run of eight consecutive tons. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s averaging 104.2, comprising six scores over 100. If you believe Oliver’s absence creates a bump in Trac’s midfield presence and scoring power, then he has the historical pedigree to match it with the best scorers in the game.

Trade Priorities | Round 10

We’re a fortnight away from the commencement of the bye rounds, so let’s look at some of the trade priorities as we head into another round of fantasy football.

Embed from Getty Images

Unlucky in Mills

There are two key things that Callum Mills’ injury reminded us of. The first is the significant impact the luck variable can have on your season. Everything about trading into Mills optically looked good. From his price point to the return of the midfield role and coming off the back of a ton, it screamed pick me. Nobody can predict an injury like that; it’s just bad luck. Plain and simple. We’ve seen countless moments of that this season and over previous years. For the most part, it was a good trade, but it could have been better in some places.

For example, I wouldn’t say I liked trading into him via Will Setterfield. On our round review podcast episode, which is available for our Spotify podcast subscribers and premium tier Patreons, I unpacked it further. But the premise was that with no Darcy Parish, the midfield role had returned, and the fixture was opening up for the Bombers. After the tough matchup against Brisbane, which has now passed, they play Richmond, West Coast, North Melbourne & Carlton before the bye. Given the scoring trend of inside midfielders on these teams in 2023, he always has a chance to average 100 over this period. So while it looks like a ‘hindsight’ call to say Mills-Setterfield wasn’t a good trade, it had more to do with the variables around Will than an injury to Mills.

The irony is that now Will is out injured with a foot fracture. So it may seem a void point to bring up, but it’s rather about unpacking the mindset and process of trades than anything specific about Will. Remember, trades aren’t just to be viewed about who you’re getting onto, but who you jumping off and when.

Embed from Getty Images

Ripe for the picking

No Darcy Parish or Will Setterfield and a fixture of Richmond, West Coast, North Melbourne & Carlton before the round fourteen byes. The breakeven suggests you could wait on trading into Zach Merrett, but the fixture and lack of midfield support indicate that you could afford to trade on now. Only a few premium midfielders have the legacy history of scoring 110 across the formats for multiple seasons, but Zach does.

Rory Laird will be at an attainable price for only so many more weeks. Last weekend’s precautionary vesting meant that the window is still open to trading into him. Yes, there’s been some ‘calf tightness’ concerns, but that wasn’t the causation behind his red vest against the Saints. Has he got some risk? Sure! But the upside is he has shown that his legacy scoring ceiling is still within his reach regularly.

I don’t love the matchup for Bailey Smith this week. The Crows are a notoriously tough team to score against for midfielders. That said, in AFLFantasy, I could get behind trading into him. At $815,000, he’s got the proven upside of pushing an average deep over 100, while the downside is he’s someone you trade out of at the round fifteen byes. One thing that might tip you over the line to trade into him is a round fourteen matchup against North Melbourne. He might be the perfect bye-round booster for your scoring.

I’m not a fan of doing it yet in AFLFantasy or DreamTeam, but getting into Darcy Cameron in SuperCoach, if named, is a serious consideration. Priced at under $500,000 with a breakeven of 55, he’s coming off the back of scores of 103, 137 & injury impacted 89. His RUC/FWD status and round fourteen byes will be helpful for versatility. In addition to creating some depth in the RUC/FWD lines, especially for those with an RUC/FWD dead cow at R3. And lastly, two of the next three weeks are against North Melbourne and West Coast. ‘DC’ has shown he’s a scorer in this role. The only concern is that Collingwood might phase him into the lead ruck role, but it’s worth consideration.

Lastly, there’s a pair of GWS Lachie’s to consider. Ash & Whitfield. The injury to Isaac Cumming that will see him out to the byes has meant they no longer have the challenge of squeezing three fantasy prospects, only fit into the two scoring halfback roles. Rather both Ash & Whitfield are now free to fill their fantasy footy. The next five weeks have some juicy matchups for halfbacks. St Kilda, Geelong, Richmond, North Melbourne and Fremantle.

In the previous three weeks, Lachie Ash has scored 89, 102 & 123 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 80,87 & 109 in SuperCoach. At the same time, Lachie Whitfield has gone at 106, 102 & 99 in SuperCoach and 88, 130 & 105 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. So they’ve got some risk, but the scoring power, role and fixture are all there.

Embed from Getty Images Become a Patron!

Send in the Cows

Many conversations are happening across the community about the need for more cash cows coming in as downgrade options. One of the primary drivers of this conversation is that we’ve now got several cash cows potentially topped out in their generation. The likes of Kade Chandler, Oliver Hollands, Oskar Baker and Connor Mckenna all need to be put into the trade-out process. While Will Ashcroft and Reuben Ginbey‘s good scores of last week mean they’ve still got another few weeks of cash to make if required. To maximise the money they’ve made, we need both upgrade and downgrade targets to align, and herein lies the potential challenge.

Many believe there are no or poor cash cow options available as downgrades, but options are abundant. They all have an element of risk, but that’s the same as what happens in most seasons. So to suggest there are no cows is false. We’ve got plenty. All with risk elements, but you’ve got options.

Bailey Humprey has one of the lowest breakevens across the formats, has DPP and structurally helps you with the round thirteen byes. The only issue is he’s already had some cash generation. But he’s one of the better downgrade options this week. For example, trading into him via Kade Chandler will net you $141,000 in AFLFantasy, $144,200 in SuperCoach & $160,100 in DreamTeam. Now, I could go down to Blake Drury and make plenty more coin, but the reality of his breakeven means I can still wait another week if needed. Additionally, I’d feel much safer trading into Humprey than Drury if the player was also required on the field. Bailey has shown he can be trusted for a 50 over the past fortnight.

They aren’t the only two options, either. Mitch Knevitt (MID) is comparable in price to Humprey and also helps structurally for you through the byes. Harry Sharp looks like he’ll be every chance of playing up to the byes, and a further two weeks of price movements are enough for you. And don’t discount Campbell Chesser; while he’s sitting on plenty of benches as a red dot, the Eagles need to keep flooding kids. Now that he’s fit and played a game in the WAFL, we could see him very soon. Depending on the format you play, even a Josh Weddle or Arthur Jones might be worth it. Both appear to be safe inside their respective clubs best 22.

Are there risks involved with some of our downgrades? Of Course! But no more than usual at this time of the season. Wondering which players have the best breakevens? We’ve got them listed here.

Embed from Getty Images

Possible DPP’s

Early next week, I’ll dive into my predictions of who I think will pick up an additional position after round eleven. But a warning, we’ll be getting an influx of premium forwards that will drastically affect the best prospects in the line.

Embed from Getty Images

Sneaky Look Ahead

Do you play SuperCoach? Then Nat Fyfe needs to be on your radar. He’s priced at $267k with a breakeven of 101 this week. Entering round thirteen after the Dockers week off, he can be priced at under $250k. To get a player with MID/FWD status, with no byes, and the upside of proven 100+ scoring is an absolute gift. He’d create an avenue of available cash through a downgrade via an Ollie Hollands type and only be needed on the field through the byes. After that, he’d have a basement of being a depth and versatility play. With the upside of being good enough to field. At the very least, one to consider. But for me, only injury or suspension will prevent this play from happening for me. 

What Should I do with Rory Laird?

One of the most talked about players of the preseason was Rory Laird. The Adelaide Crow was the most expensive player in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam. However, after one of his lowest career scores, the fantasy community is asking, what should I do with Rory Laird?

Embed from Getty Images

It was a less-than-ideal start, I’m not going to lie. A 57 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 50 in SuperCoach was between 50-80 points less than what owners would’ve loved to experience. But it’s what it is; great fantasy coaches adapt and react to situations, and, for a third of the competition, the opportunity is now about what happens from round two onwards. So before deciding whether they should be holding or trading Laird, you need to ask yourself a few questions.

Was that a once-off?

Regardless of the format, it’ll be hard to consider moving him off if you believe it was an isolated game. One bad score doesn’t dictate your season. For example, in 2021, Touk Miller scored 68 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 80 in SuperCoach in round one. However, by the time the season was over, he’d boast an average north of 120 across all formats. The biggest fantasy lament you could have had is ‘jumping off’ after one poor score.

I’ve played all salary cap formats for over a decade, and every year, the season’s opening round always throws up some odd games and scores. However, the overwhelming evidence, in my opinion, would lend itself to suggesting that this would be an isolated match.

Rory Laird and GWS’ Toby Greene stated that the extreme heat was like nothing they’d ever experienced. Laird told SEN SA,’ I found it very difficult on the day.’ Across the last quarter, both teams had multiple players suffering from severe cramps. Does this, in isolation, explain the poor score? Of course not. But it does give important information.

In that same interview, he went on further by saying ‘GWS didn’t put a hard tag on me, but they had an emphasis around stoppage (for us) not to get any connection, not only with me but we found it pretty hard throughout the whole midfield to connect. Watch that game back, not just the fantasy scores, and what do you see? Complete dominance from the entire GWS midfield. Tom Green, Callan Ward, Stephen Coniglio, Finn Callaghan and Josh Kelly beat up the Crows midfield.

Where is the Adelaide midfield strongest? Contest & pressure work in tight, but the Giants midfield got to work and denied them of this game style. It’s not a surprise that this, alongside the extreme heat combined with Laird having a dog of a day.

If you think Sunday’s game was an isolated incident, you cannot trade him. You built your starting squad with him in mind and created the space with your salary cap to include Laird. So don’t exaggerate the pain of a poor score by trading him. One poor score will not define the season for you.

Was it a mistake for your team and style?

Nobody likes admitting a mistake, but was starting Laird a mistake for you? This question shouldn’t factor in Rory’s scoring but rather be more about your overall squad structure. One of the reasons to trade Rory that I could empathise with is it enables you to ‘fix’ your team and it’s structure. After seeing the week of data, you realised you made some significant mistakes. But Rory, while the most financially valued piece, I’d encourage you to investigate all other options in your squad before making him the ticket to ‘freedom.’

This week, your greatest trading priorities should be one of the following. Dealing with the injuries like Tristan Xerri or Tom Stewart and getting the right cash cows you failed to start with, like Kade Chandler, these are the #1 priorities.  

If you’ve got no injuries and nailed the cows, then attention should start heading to any ‘miss’ of your midprice picks. Players like Jacob Hopper or Dom Sheed should be in the trading gun ahead of Rory.

If Laird is the worst pick in your starting squad, then your set! Your team is in exceptional shape. Do you have to hold Laird? Ofhe’drse not, but trading him shouldn’t be done because he’s the problem. Rather by trading him, he becomes the ‘solution’ to fix up your other issues. So trading Laird isn’t about him’ but a necessary sacrifice to fix other problems.

Do you plan to trade him back?

Let’s run the thought gauntlet. If you were to trade Rory out of your side this week, what are you hoping to achieve? Trading him now does not remove that score in the 50s. While in AFLFantasy, it does not regenerate that loss of almost $50k. Trading him now further accentuates the loss and sets you a step back. On any given week, Laird can be the top-scoring player of the round; it’s the primary driver behind why you started with him.

Yes, Laird has lost cash in this format and will let’s do so in DreamTeam & SuperCoach. But ‘value’ was never, nor should it ever have the driver behind selecting him. Rory was never a one-week play. You started him because you wanted to maximise his scoring capacity for as many weeks of the season. Don’t throw that away now just because you copped his basement score of the year.

There wasn’t one ‘hardcore’ coach that wasn’t planning on having Laird in their squad at some point in 2023. The slow start has made it marginally easier for him, but they still have the challenge of trading into him and his lowest price. So in 3-4 weeks, will you, current owners or non-owners, be able to capitalise on getting him at this basement price?

The financial value isn’t the only variable you need to consider; it’s the value of a trade. How many trades will it take to return to Rory at this ‘lower’ price? It’ll be the one to move him out and a bare minimum of two to get back into him. So arguably, it could take as many as four or five total trades to move him out and ultimately back in? Is that worth it for you? If you prioritise trading him back in, which other premiums at their basement price are you missing out on?

I didn’t start him. Am I a genius?

For non-owners, the luck of the dice has fallen your way. But remind yourself that it’s the luck factor that’s played out. At quarter time, Laird was 29 in SuperCoach and 27 in AFLFantasy. It could have been even higher if he’d converted his two shots on goal. Every person going against Rory was looking at yet another 120 score down the barrel, and the question of ‘how will I get this beast into my team’ was already oozing.

Thankfully, non-owners, the path to Rory has become significantly cheaper for you. In AFLFantasy, he’s already had $48,000 clipped off his starting price, and with a breakeven of 174, he’s likely to slip a minimum of $20k even with a good 120 score. If he averages 100 over the next three rounds, his price will drop to approximately $887,000. That’s a decent slice of his starting price, but the challenge will still be making sure you can afford him at his possible lowest price.’

For SuperCoach & DreamTeam, while you’ll happily take the poor score, it’s not the preferred round for it to have happened. Furthermore, these formats operate off a three-week price cycle, so while it’s a helpful start, this poor score will only be a variable in just one week.

Was starting Rory a mistake? Too early to say! Was going against him the right call? Also, to early to say. Only at the season’s end will hindsight give us the clarity we need to know what was the right approach.

#11 Most Relevant | Rory Laird

A single player can rarely define the success of a fantasy football season. But if you owned or didn’t own Rory Laird in 2022, then it’s safe to say he was a difference-maker in the outcome of your season. Will he be that again in 2023?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Rory Laird
Age: 29
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score: 
163 Vs Collingwood (AFLFantasy)
156 Vs North Melbourne (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
163 Vs Collingwood | AFLFantasy (2022)
185 Vs Collingwood | SuperCoach (2020)

2022 Average: 
120.3 (AFLFantasy)
127.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $703,900
AFLFantasy Price: $1,070,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $1,092,500

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

As strong as the season was for Rory Laird overall, it didn’t start well. The Adelaide midfielder suffered a broken hand in a pre-season game against Port Adelaide and missed the opening few rounds of the 2023 season. However, once he returned to play in round three, everything he touched turned gold from that point on. He ranked first in the league for disposals, effective disposals and handballs per game. Alongside this, he ranks second for tackles per game and top ten for clearances, stoppages, score involvements, uncontested possessions, and almost every other category that champion data measure.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored sixteen tons; twelve were above 120, five were above 130, and he posted his career-high score of 163. Alongside this was that his scoring didn’t dip below 90 all year. His average of 120.35 makes him the top-scoring player in these formats. Despite missing two games, he still ranked fifth for total points. And he ended the year less than 70 points away from overall top scorer Andrew Brayshaw. Don’t gloss over this. That ceiling and consistency so were so supreme to everyone else.

For SuperCoach, the season was equally as exceptional. His average of 127.85 consisted of 18 tons, and 77% of those he translated into scores of 120 or higher. He had ten scores over 130 and seven over 140. His worst score of the year was 93, which was his comeback game from injury. Like in AFLFantasy, Laird is the player with the highest seasonal average. Only Callum Mills, Touk Miller, Clayton Oliver and Lachie Neale scored more. However, he’s under 150 short of taking the top-scoring mantle from Neale.

Last season there was a stretch in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam between rounds 11-21 where he averaged 132. His lowest score in that ten games was 119. While over in SuperCoach, his hot streak of back-to-back tons was even longer. Over seventeen weeks between rounds 2021, his scoring dip below 105 on his way to averaging 131.4. But this volume and frequency of tons go well beyond just 2022.

During the 2021 season, he scored eighteen tons from 22 games played, including 11 consecutive to end the year. Of these tons, six were above 120, and two monsters of 140+. That’s scoring a ton in 81% of games last year. To go with his consistency of tons is his high-scoring basement. Just once all year did his scoring fall beneath 90. He ranked seventh for total averages and points scored in the competition for these formats.

His scoring was similarly dominant in SuperCoach with 18 tons, 11 consecutive to wind up the year and 10 of those tons 120 or higher, including a 144, 149 and a seasonal high 179. Like in AFLFantasy, he had just one score below 90 all season. He ranked 10th overall for total points, and averages ranked 11th.

It was back in mid-2020 that Laird moved from the halfback flank and became a permanent centre-bounce midfielder. In the 51 games in his role, he’s averaged a ton in 78% of AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 84% of SuperCoach games. But it’s not just the frequency of triple digits scores. The volume of big scores has seen him dominate for two and 1/2 seasons. Visually here’s what the past 51 games look like in summary.

What do you want from your premiums? Let’s run a quick dream checklist to see if Rory hits the criteria.

  • Durable
  •  High Scoring Ceiling
  •  High Scoring FFloor
  •  Low Scoring volatility
  •  Never tagged
  •  Multiple scoring categories and avenues
  •  Reliable with a C or VC armband every week

The answer to all of these regarding Rory Laird is yes! He is the most trustworthy premium midfielder of the past 50 games and looks set to maintain the position heading into 2023.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Moment of truth, at some stage during 2023, we all plan to own Rory Laird. His final ten games post-bye from last year put the rubber stamp on that. With him, most teams will feel complete but nervous about battling against him every week. So the question comes down to this, will you start with Rory? Or are you planning to trade with him?

So often, we make a big deal about the value and a player’s price in our starting squads. And when we do that to an extreme, we start looking only to start players that are ‘value’ and potentially underpriced. You’re not picking him for value at the price tag of obtaining Laird. You’re selecting him for his points delivery. The price is what he is, so he’s not expensive or overpriced; it’s what he is! So, yes, there will likely be a time in the season he’s cheaper. But my question to you is twofold.

One, can you secure him at the lowest price point? Unless you’re predicting a massive scoring drop, it will be little you save, and you’ll need to capitalise early. Second, even if you can generate the funds to trade into him, will the volume of cash and trades to get up towards him be worth it?

Ultimately, starting with Laird or any high-end premium, it’s all about the combination of players rather than just looking at a straight one-for-one. For example, which combination do you like more? Rory Laird at M1 and Darcy Cameron at R2. Or Tim English at R1 and Josh Kelly at M2? Neither is wrong, and both are possible combinations. But it’s where you feel most confident and comfortable getting the best bang for your buck.

One last thing on price because the tag only matters in two scenarios. When your selling and when your buying. How expensive he is or what value he has no relevance to owners. Only those looking to jump on.

In DreamTeam & SuperCoach, the game is evolving and running, and spinning value is increasingly more important. But still, at its foundation, success in those games has come down to making sure you own the best players for the longest time. It’s why in DT & SC if you believe Laird is an elite premium, he needs to be considered a starting squad candidate.

AFLFantasy is different; the weekly price changes mean you must treat this format differently. The history of recent winners would tell you to spend less on midfield premiums like this. But history is only a guide, not a mandate. The question you need to ask is this. What do you believe he will average over the first six weeks of the season? Adelaide plays GWS, Richmond, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Carlton & Hawthorn. Does he go 120-125? If so, there’s a place where he’s ripe for you to start? If he’s 110 or below, then clearly, you’ll be backing in another player as your VC/C option early and hoping to trade into Laird quickly.

Whether you start him or not is different from what makes him relevant in the preseason. He’s relevant because of what he can and probably will do again in 2023. So, when will this relevant midfielder be on your side?

DRAFT DECISION

Rory Laird will be the first defender off the draft boards in 2023. In some leagues, he’ll go as the first pick overall. While others will opt for one of the top-end forward premiums. Either way, if you don’t have one of the first picks of the draft, safe to say you’ll not own him this year. 

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say on our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd.

Ten Moves That Made The Season

There are so many variables that go into making a successful fantasy football season. A good starting squad certainly contributes, but at the end of the day, ‘success’ comes from making the right trades at the right time. So retrospectively, MJ looks back at the 2022 season and the moves that could have made the difference this season.

Embed from Getty Images

Rory Laird | Trade In | Round Six

For many in the preseason, Rory Laird was one of the players on the radar. He was coming off the back of averaging over 110 across the formats. Sadly, a hand injury in the preseason against Port Adelaide prevented many from starting with him. 

Every game Rory has played would’ve been a great time to get him in, given that he hasn’t dropped under 90 all season. However, at round six, he was at his lowest price point.

Since this time and over the last fifteen games, he’s scored fourteen AFLFanatasy/DreamTeam tons; eleven are over 120 and gone at an average of 126.6. In SuperCoach, he’s performing even better. He’s scored a ton in every game in the fifteen-game stretch; eleven are over 120, and the lowest score in his last four games is 140. Since round six, he’s going at a SuperCoach average of 131.

He’s never been ‘cheap’ this year, but if you’ve not outlaid the cash for him this season, you are probably not where you want to be in the rankings. He’s been one of the biggest difference makers this fantasy football season.

Embed from Getty Images

Tom Liberatore | Trade In | Round Six

One of the great blessings for coaches this year, especially in SuperCoach, was the addition of forward status for Tom Liberatore. Libba spent the first few weeks of the year as a forward, building back fitness after having an injury-interrupted preseason. However, we saw a substantial spike in his fantasy football scoring from round six onwards, which aligned with a consistent return to his centre bounce midfield role. Since round six in SuperCoach, he’s scored eleven tons from fifteen games and has had only one score dip below 90. During this stretch of the game, he’s averaged 111. Even more impressive was if you grabbed him at the end of round five, you’d have been paying $521k for him.

To put that scoring into perspective, he’s currently the 17th highest scoring option in all of SuperCoach this year and is ranked third for all forward options. But, alongside this high scoring, consistency has been a notoriously low ownership number. Even now, under 15,000 coaches (9%) of teams own him.

Embed from Getty Images

Darcy Cameron | Trade In | Round Seven

When Brodie Grundy went down with a longer term injury in round six, it was clear that Darcy Cameron would get the primary share of the ruck responsibility. However, the hesitation in bringing him in immediately in round seven was still there because we hadn’t seen him dominate outside of the NEAFL/VFL.

Since round seven, you’ve been handsomely rewarded if you did take the plunge and trade into him blind. He’s returned with six AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons at an average of 93. While in SuperCoach 98 with seven tons. These scores are excellent in light of what we paid for. However, it’s a slight dip in what he’d been doing for most of the year. Between rounds 7-19, Darcy averaged 102 in AFLFantasy and 104 in SuperCoach in an eleven game stretch. He’s been one of the season’s best picks, and arguably, without him, you’ve been playing ‘catch up’ all year.

Embed from Getty Images

Mason Redman | Trade In | Round Seven

2022 is the year of previously irrelevant names pushing themselves into premium territory. Mason Redman has always been a good footballer in the backline, but that’s never translated into fantasy scoring. Until now. Over the past twelve games, Essendon has utilised Mason more, and we’ve seen the spike not just in possessions, marks and tackles but also in his fantasy output.

Over the year’s first six weeks, he averaged 76.5 in SuperCoach and 71 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. Since round seven, he’s posted seven SuperCoach tons, including 144, 152 & 177. During this stretch of games, he’s been averaging 106.5. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s posted five tons, four of which were over 120 and averaged 96. It might not be the biggest ‘pop’ of all players in this article, but he’s had arguably the best ceiling of all our premium defenders.

Embed from Getty Images

Jordan Dawson | Trade In | Round Seven

In hindsight, what a critical week of trading round seven appears to have been, with many teams being potentially able to make season-defining trades. Without a doubt, Jordan Dawson is having a career best season at his new club. He’s not been ‘poor’ to own at any point of the season. At the end of round six, he’d delivered two tons across the formats and averaged 92 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 99 in SuperCoach. It’s good scoring, but he’s been going better!

Over the past fourteen games since round seven, he’s been an unstoppable force! In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s gone at an average of 104, including nine tons and just one score under 85. While in SuperCoach, he’s averaged 113, scored ten tons, five of which have been over 130, and Dawson has dipped his scoring under 90 in just one game.

Embed from Getty Images

Patrick Cripps | Trade Out | Round Eight

No player started the 2022 fantasy football season stronger than Carlton skipper Patrick Cripps. Even with a hamstring related injury early in round four and missing the subsequent match, he was still fire and a season defining selection. If you include his injury affected game, he still averaged 116 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 125 in SuperCoach. Using the power of hindsight, coaches that jumped off here not only maxed out his value and points scoring but also gave themselves some considerable better sleep at night.

From round eight and over the next twelve games, he’s averaged 95 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 101 in SuperCoach. These are far from ‘poor’ scores, but when coaches were paying for him to be a 110-120 premium midfielder and getting scores well below. So perhaps there are some lessons for coaches to ponder for future seasons. 

Embed from Getty Images

Braydon Preuss | Trade Out | Round 10

Sigh! Every week since January, I’ve spoken about Braydon Preuss this year in a podcast or an article for the Coaches Panel. So at least my decision to place him inside the top ten of the fifty most relevant seems justified now. To say owning Preuss in 2022 created some headaches might be an understatement, but the reality is the entire ruck division this season has been a dumpster fire.

He was one of the most relevant players from round three and the following seven weeks. During this stretch (yes, he missed round five with a suspension), he averaged 98 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 110 in SuperCoach. At round ten, when he was out of the side with illness. Any coach who jumped off him would have been rewarded. This ‘sick’ week was followed up by an additional week of him missing with covid, the bye and then being overlooked. By the time he did get back into the side in round fourteen, he was subbed out of the game early in the first quarter with an ankle injury. Preuss didn’t make it back into the Giants side again until round nineteen.

Safe to say, if coaches took the first ‘exit’ on Preuss and pocketed his cash, they would’ve saved themselves plenty of heartaches.

Embed from Getty Images

Stephen Coniglio | Trade In | Round Thirteen

Many coaches started with Stephen Coniglio. He loomed as one of the best value picks in our starting squads in 2022. With multiple 80+ scores, including a few tons in the opening seven weeks, ‘Cogs’ was doing exactly what he expected. However, in rounds eight & nine, he played heavily as a forward and returned multiple poor scores. As a result, a high volume of fantasy footballers traded him out, especially with his bye break just around the corner.

Over rounds ten and eleventh, we saw him spike back into the midfield, and unsurprisingly the scoring returned to where it had been for the year. While holding Cogs was the right call at round thirteen after the bye, he was ripe for the picking. In SuperCoach, he would’ve set you back just over $430k, AFLFantasy $704,000 and DreamTeam just under $670k. From the bye, he’s averaged 110 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 115 in SuperCoach.

If you traded back into Cogs at this time, well done. Even more so if you ‘kept the faith’ and held him.

Embed from Getty Images

Harry Himmelberg | Trade In | Round Thirteen

What a crazy season 2022 has been! When players like Harry Himmelberg are among the most vital trade moves of the year. That’s not having a go at Harry, but rather stating that before his flip into the backline, he’s been someone even draft coaches in deep leagues haven’t even considered. The scoring run of Himmelberg did start in round eleven against Brisbane. It’s here when he was deployed across the backline and scored 101 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 126 in SuperCoach.

After the GWS bye rounds, Himmelberg was ripe for picking. A risky pick, no doubt, but triple nonetheless. He’d have set you back $350k in SuperCoach, $472k in AFLFantasy and $511k in AFLDreamTeam. The nine game stretch has had some monster high scoring matches (north of 150+). In addition to some games, he struggled to get to 70. However, he’s averaged 101 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 115 in SuperCoach. Additionally, he’s gained DEF status and has become a helpful linkman in creating squad versatility as injuries have hit teams.

Owning him has been a gauntlet to run most weeks, with interim coach Mark McVeigh constantly hinting at him returning to the forward line. However, for the most part, he’s been a phenomenally smart pick for the brave coaches that jumped on.

Embed from Getty Images

Zach Merrett | Trade In | Round Fifteen

Until a week ago, nobody would’ve questioned Zach Merrett’s inclusion in the list. But, as disappointing as his scores last week may have been, the reality is that he’s been among the top scoring premiums across the formats. After the bye rounds, Merrett was a popular buy low premium, but it wasn’t until round fifteen that he started to turn the scoring on. These past seven weeks, he has averaged 125 in SuperCoach and 121 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.

Entering round fifteen in AFLFantasy, he’d have set you back $774,000 for SuperCoach it was $529,600 and DreamTeam $774,900. So getting him now will cost you almost $200k more in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and over $100k in SuperCoach. So not only has he been scoring phenomenally, but he’s also returning sensational value for money!

Become a Patron!
#47 Most Relevant | Rory Laird

In 2021 Rory Laird was the best defender of the season. Entering into a new year he may have lost his defensive status but his scoring power shows no signs of disappearing. ‘The Desk’ could one of the best low ownership stars of 2022.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Rory Laird
Age: 28
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score: 
142 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy)
178 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
142 Vs Hawthorn | AFLFantasy (2021)
185 Vs Collingwood| SuperCoach (2020)

2021 Average: 
111.6 (AFLFantasy)
116.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $632,600
AFLFantasy Price: $937,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $952,300

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Was the move of Rory Laird into the Adelaide midfield in 2020 just a one-off experiment? Hardly! Laird took the skills honed as a defender and translated them into a top-level midfielder. Per game, he ranked second in the league for handbells, third for contested possessions, fourth for disposals, sixth for effective disposals, and seventh for stoppage clearances. This statistical dominance translated into him becoming one of the best performers last year. And despite being available as a midfielder, his numbers hold up against many big boys in fantasy footy.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam last year, scored 18 tons from 22 games played, including 11 consecutive to end the year. Of these tons, 6 were above 120, and two monsters of 140+. That’s scoring a ton in 81% of games last year. That more 100’s than Ollie Wines, Zach Merrett, Sam Walsh and Jarryd Lyons were also top 10 scoring midfielders the previous year. To go with his consistency of tons is his high scoring basement. Just once all year did his scoring fall beneath 90. That’s something, not even last years top performing player Jack Steele can boast about. He ranked seventh for both total averages and points scored in the competition for these formats.

His scoring was similarly dominant in SuperCoach with 18 tons, 11 consecutive to wind up the year and 10 of those tons 120 or higher, including a 144, 149 and a seasonal high 179. Like in AFLFantasy, he had just one score below 90 all season. He ranked 10th overall for total points and averages ranked 11th and outperformed Brownlow Medalist Ollie Wines and Norm Smith Medalist Christian Petracca. Of course, some of us are more ‘visual’ learners than others. So for those more like me, here’s a visual representation of his strong scoring 2021 across formats.

If you’ve played any formats of fantasy footy beyond twelve months, you’d know the scoring pedigree of Laird. What matters isn’t his accomplishments across half-back. What he’s done since being a midfielder does. In 2020, after his move into the Crows midfield in round nine, he averaged 118 in SuperCoach and 89 in AFLFantasy. If you want to play the ‘adjusted’ averages game due to the shorter quarters, then, in reality, it’s a 112.

When selecting a premium, three of the most critical factors are scoring consistency, scoring ceiling, and games available. Of course, the scoring and consistency are on show for all now. But Laird’s availability is equally as impressive. In the past five seasons, he’s missed just two games of AFL. And since 2019, he’s played every game possible.

Over the past thirty games, between 2020-2021, he’s shown as a 110+ performer in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and a 115+ in SuperCoach. The evidence is irrefutable; Laird is a top tier scoring option. Given his low ownership due to a loss of defensive status, he could be the perfect differential in your starting squad or upgrade plans.

Given that he’s only played the midfield role for 30 games, there’s a line of argument that suggests he could be getting better in the position. However, based on his 11 consecutive tons to round out the season, that thought process might have some grounds for consideration.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

One word can define an AFL player and his career. When you say ‘premierships’, you think of the Grand Final day heroics of players like Luke Hodge, Dustin Martin and more recently, Christian Petracca. All were difference makers in helping their team win a flag. However, the word that comes to mind when I think of Rory Laird is ‘consistent.’ His effort, workrate, ball winning, defensive pressure and fantasy scoring is just consistent. Undoubtedly, over the last 30 games of AFL is among the most consistently high performing midfielders in the AFL.

If you look over the past few years, whenever someone loses defender or forward status and become just a midfielder, they often get underrated and under owned. Currently, AFLFantasy is the only format open to the public, and there he’s owned by just 3% of coaches. Madness right? Possibly, but for me, I have a few question marks around Laird.

The primary concern is not so much around Rory but more around the impending return of Matt Crouch. What impact (if any) will he have on Laird’s scoring ceiling and capacity? Granted, Crouch is yet to return to full training, but when fit, he’s best 22 and knows how to find plenty of footy. Between 2016-2019 Crouch averaged over 30 possessions per game and went at 26 in the shorter quarters of 2020. That’s plenty of ball winning that could skim the ceiling off Laird’s top end numbers.

We did get nine games in 2020 where they played together in these midfield roles. It was the final nine games of the season. Laird averaged 118 in SuperCoach and 89 in AFLFantasy. If you want to play the ‘adjusted’ averages game due to the shorter quarters, then, in reality, it’s a 112. Crouch also won plenty of the ball in this time. While that’s positive vibes, the Crows midfield and game style has adjusted drastically since then. Harry Schoenberg has become a centre bounce regular, Luke Pedlar and Sam Berry has been added to the midfield stocks via the draft, and they’ve traded in a gun recruit, Jordan Dawson.

In short, the team has changed and for the better. I don’t think Crouch’s return can be safely assumed to have little or no impact on Laird’s game. To start the year with Rory is going to cost plenty of coins. He’s among the top group of expensive midfielders in the games. When you are forking out this much cash of your salary cap on a player, you cannot do it when they still pose significant question marks. The return of Matt Crouch is substantial. You must wait and see the impact before jumping on.

There are parallels between him and Callum Mills, who we wrote about here a few days ago? But is Laird a better pick than Mills? In my eyes, yes, and for a straightforward reason. Laird’s got a significant frequency of translating 100’s to 120+ scores. Both are good reliable, and consistent performers, but the historical ceiling means you must place Rory over Callum in all ranks.

Can Laird get better? Arguably his basement can’t get any stronger. With just one game beneath 90, all season is insane. So if you believe he’s going to score better, he must add to his disposal count. But averaging 32 touches a game, six tackles and nearly four marks, I’m not sure I see colossal growth avenues. I think he’s at top dollar, and unless he can outperform his points per game by 10+ over the first six weeks, he will drop in value. Combining this and the chance to ‘watch and see’ the possible Crouch impact makes him the perfect upgrade option.

The only justifiable reason to start him is that you believe he can get better, and if he is to improve, you’re picking him as one of your weekly captaincy candidates. If you don’t think he can be a VC/C for you over the first six weeks, then he’s not a starter for you. That’s why for me, Laird is an upgrade target. He’ll be a reliable and consistent performer, but you remove all potential elements of risk by waiting on him. I’ll be certainly looking to him as a possible early premium upgrade.

DRAFT DECISION

When a player losses defender or forward status and become just midfielders, they can slide later in drafts than where they should. In reality, based on Rory Laird’s ceiling, consistency and durability, he is a legitimate M1/M2 and a candidate for a pick as early as the second round. However, some might be a little turned off and try to load up on either another positional line or a legacy name midfielder.

His range will be anywhere from the middle of the second round right through to the mid fourth on draft day. I’d be shocked to see him still on the draft board entering into the fifth. He’s too good to pass up on even with some uncertainties around the flagged Matt Crouch impact. Regardless I still see him as a top 10-15 midfielder for 2022.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say at our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

Possible 2022 Fantasy Footy Position Changes

With the AFL draft completed the fantasy, community starts to turn it’s attention to the coming season. For AFLFantasy, SuperCoach & DreamTeam players, it’s the final step before the 2022 positions get revealed from Champion Data. Before the official announcement drops in the next few days, I thought I’d share some possible 2022 Fantasy Footy position changes.

Already champion data via Fantasy Freako have confirmed 127 DPP’s will be in the games next year.

Embed from Getty Images

DEFENDER

Jack Ziebell

In 2021 Jack Ziebell was one of the breakout midprice forwards who became one of the season’s best buys. This addition of the Kangaroo skipper into our backlines should come as no surprise. He, along with his teammate listed below, dominated the defensive 50 possessions for North Melbourne. So the only question fantasy coaches will be pondering is will he be worth investing in at peak price in 2022?

Aaron Hall

Like his teammate above, Aaron Hall became one of those core ingredients to success in 2021. If you didn’t have Hall in your forward stocks, chances are you didn’t have a strong season. With his football revival coming as a running half-back, giving hall defensive status will be one of the easiest decisions Champion Data will ever make. But, more importantly, is can he follow the season up? Regardless, Hall looks like a fascinating player to discuss during the preseason.

Nick Hind

The trend of 2021 forward listed players getting defensive status continues with Nick Hind. Numerous superlatives were used last season to the Bombers list management team for identifying him as a bargain price replacement for Adam Saad. Equally, coaches who jumped on Hind early had strong starts to the season. The ‘run and carry’ defender

Jarman Impey

In all honesty, it could’ve been CNTRL-C, CNTRL V from above when it comes to the reason why Jarman Impey will pick up defensive status. Like the names above, he had a clearly defined role change last year. With the absence of James Sicily, he became the primary ball user of the Hawks D50 before his season ending injury. He’s not salary cap format relevant next year, but for drafts, he’ll be someone worth keeping an eye on in the middle of the draft.

Braeden Campbell

Heading into his second season, it’s rare a player becomes fantasy relevant. Where talking about players like Nat Fyfe, Jackson Macrae and Clayton Oliver that became genuine premiums in year #2, for Braeden Campbell, he’ll move from his MID/FWD status of 2021 to a likely pure defender. Last year, he played as a small-medium rebounding defender and should easily allocate status for Champion Data.

Bailey Dale

Luke Beveridge has done it again. Two seasons ago, he reinvented Caleb Daniel as the ‘quarterback defender for the Dogs. Now, Bailey Dale has transitioned from a dynamic forward that struggled to make the best 22 to becoming a dominant rebounding defender. Daniel & Dale’s skills complete each other perfectly and continue to cause headaches for opposition forward coaches. Bailey’s a genuine top 10 defender candidate moving into next season.

Chayce Jones

Of all the players referenced so far, Chayce Jones probably has minor fantasy relevance. However, the positional allocation to defensive status is a warranted one. The former first-round pick has reinvented himself as a hard-nosed pressure defender. In addition to his high endurance capacity and team-first mindset, Jones is also a solid user of the ball by foot. If he can jag some kick in responsibilities off Wayne Milera or Brodie Smith, he might pop a little as a late-round draft pick up.

Others who should gain: James Stewart, Jy Farrar, Miles Bergman, Tom Atkins, Jayden Hunt & Jayden Laverde

Become a Patron! Embed from Getty Images

MIDFIELD

Callum Mills

The breakout was complete for Callum Mills. He transitioned beautifully into a dyanmic cenntre bounce midfielder. No chance he retain his defensive status.

Rory Laird

Played pure midfield, lock it up. Nothing more to say! Sadly we lose this long term defensive staple to the midfield.

James Harmes

The Melbourne Demon midfield stopper. James Harmes enjoyed his season of fantasy relevance in the sun. But as a midfielder only, it’s back to drafts and daily fantasy.

Jack Crisp

I’m still 50/50 on this, but I think there is sufficient data that Jack Crisp needs to be a midfielder only in 2022. He attended a high volume of centre bounces, and despite increasing his rebound 50 counts, it was coming from a defensive 50 function. Instead, it was him using his endurance weapon to push into the backline become the rebounder. This was seen often when Brayden Maynard was forced to play a highly lockdown focussed d50 role.

Kyle Langford

Last season Essendon’s midfield stocks were smashed with injuries. As a result, Kyle Langford thrived (amongst others) with the additional midfield responsibility. As a result, he should be a MID only option. Sadly, it means beyond draft and daily fantasy formats, he’s not a viable option.

Harry Schoenberg

Maybe a controversial one, and I know for my keeper leagues, I hope I’m wrong. But Harry Schoenberg was electric for the Crows as a midfielder last year. A quick scroll back through the centre bounce attendances over the season shows that ‘Shonnie’ became a core member of the Adelaide midfield. When he wasn’t playing at centre bounce, he was playing as a wingman. So again, I hope I’m wrong, but I think he’s a pure midfielder in 2022.

Embed from Getty Images

FORWARD

Nat Fyfe

By name alone, the probable MID/FWD status of Nat Fyfe next season would make many coaches super keen on selecting him in 2022. And depending on the format, you play he could well be one of the more relevant additions for the year. The Dockers skipper spent an ever increasing amount of time forward as his young teammates started to take over the responsibility of the midfield. While not the most damaging set shot at goal, Fyfe is an imposing forward presence and is as challenging to match up against inside forward 50 as at centre stoppage. The departure of Adam Cerra to Cartlon might even see him move back more into the midfield. However, the biggest obstacle to selecting him is getting him back to full fitness after another injury setback in the offseason. We’ll discuss that more in the preseason.

Jack Billings

Over the past few seasons, Jack Billings has gone from draft relevant forward to top 10 forward across formats to an irrelevant midfield only wingman. Despite it not being Jack’s best season, he did start to get back towards showing off his damaging highlights. Billings is an excellent field kick, and when playing across half-forward, the combination of solid footy IQ and skill makes him a very good player. As a potential MID/FWD next year, he might not regain top 10 status among forwards, but he’ll undoubtedly skyrocket up draft format selection boards if he does.

Lachie Hunter

Selecting Bulldogs players always feels like a risk. Luke Beveridge is long known for his ability to chop and change a player’s role weekly and potentially every quarter. In 2021 it was Lachie Hunter’s turn to experience the positional roundabout. For the better part of the year, he played at centre bounces off the half-forward flank and then pushed up onto his preferred wing role. If the proposed MID/FWD status lands and the Bulldogs settle him back onto the wing, he looms as a locked 90+ forward across the formats.

Tim Taranto

Ask any Tim Taranto owner over the final six games. Where did he play to end the season? Freaking forward! And didn’t his scoring show it. Undoubtedly, the percentage of field position time to him gaining or missing will be razor-thin. I think due to such a heavy forward role late, plus some in-season game management, he’s done just enough. But it’ll be tight.

Sam Berry

The rebuilding Crows got plenty of games into Sam Berry in 2021. A staple of his game was his defensive workrate and solid defensive pressure on the opposition ball carrier. As a junior, Berry was a strongly contested midfielder, but with the Crows, he’s developing his game with minimal midfield time and substantial forward presence. It will result in him being a forward in this coming season.

Tim English

For the Western Bulldogs, they changed up the ruck and forward structures this year. Instead of Tim English leading the ruck division, he became the second fiddle to Stefan Marti, Jordan Sweet and former teammate Lewis Young. English should still retain ruck status but also get forward status to go with it.

Ben McEvoy

Don’t forget, this article isn’t about the ‘most relevant positional changes.’ We’ll get to that once the positions get announced. Instead, this is about forecasting changes. For example, Ben McEvoy moved into the #2 ruck position behind Jon Ceglar, and his height and marking presence was maximised inside the Hawks forward 50. As a result, he should retain DPP but will move from DEF/RUC last year into an RUC/FWD.

Josh Daicos

Two seasons ago, Josh Daicos was looming as one of the breakout forward candidates in fantasy footy. However, due to multiple injuries and frequent positional changes, Josh has found himself off plenty of fantasy footy radars. In the games he did play last year, he put his mercurial surname into good use inside forward 50. Regaining forward status should bring him back into view for coaches.

Stephen Coniglio

We might not have enough data on this for champion data to do it. But Stephen Coniglio spent alot of time inside forward 50 option at centre bounces. Historically, champion data that the starting position at centre bounce ‘is a consideration in the allocations. Should he gain forward status, a combination of this and a low starting price due to injury might make ‘Cogs’ one of the most highly owned players in the game.

Tom Powell

Last season he was a strong early season cash cow. For those who play AFLFantasy, you’ll know that he was awarded MID/FWD DPP midseason after spending a large portion of the year playing off the half-forward line. As a result, I believe he’s a prime candidate to commence the 2022 fantasy year with the same MID/FWD status. I do suspect Tom Powell will increase his midfield minutes next year. But with Jason Horne-Francis landing at the club in the draft, I expect him to increase the competition for midfield rotations at North Melbourne.

Become a Patron! Embed from Getty Images

Hold Position

Josh Dunkley

During last preseason many in the fantasy community were unsure of whether to jump on due to his role volatility in the Dogs side. Pre-injury, Josh Dunkley was the form player, post-injury he was barely playable. Given his heavy Forward time after the return from surgery, I believe Josh Dunkley will retain MID/FWD DPP. As a result, this coming season will be once again filled with the Dunkley dilemma discussions.

Rowan Marshall

With Paddy Ryder missing multiple games last year that Rowan Marshall played, it wouldn’t shock me if he lost DPP. But I think in the totality of the season, Marshall spent enough time starting and then playing inside forward 50 to retain his R/F DPP. So if Ryder misses large chunks of this coming season, too, it could be Marshall that pushes towards that #1 ranking forward by seasons end. His upside is enormous.

Patrick Dangerfield

Pretty simple this one. Patrick Dangerfield played as a centre bounce midfielder and played as a damaging isolated forward. You know what to do champion data. When it comes to allocating positions, you can leave his status unchanged.

Lachie Whitfield

When Lachie Whitfield is on the ground, he’s a damaging top tier outside player in the game. For the Giants, they allowed him to stay deployed across the half-back and push up the wings. He averaged four rebound 50’s a game and should maintain his defensive status. There might even be a chance he’s allocated a MID/DEF and provide us coaches with some early squad versatility.

Dustin Martin

You’ll be hearing alot about Dusty this preseason. The triple Norm Smith medalist plans to be back with a vengeance in 2022. This could make him a bargain buy among the fantasy footy formats, given I believe he’s a lock to retain MID/FWD DPP.

Keeper League Ranks | Tier Three | Patreon Exclusive

Lachie Whitfield

KANELachie Whitfield’s upside is as good as it gets. Having a defender who can average 120 is unheard of, but that’s the ceiling Whitfield possesses. 
In 2019 he averaged 114 points, but when you remove his two injury impacted scores, that average rises to 122. 
In 2020 he averaged 107 adjusted points, but when you remove his concussion impacted game, that average jumps to 113. 
In 2021 he averaged 95 points, but when you remove his concussion impacted game that average goes to 100. 
I think you catch my drift now. When Whitfield is on the field and healthy, he’s one of the best scorers in the game, let alone as a back or forward. It’s worth noting too that in draft you have a time on ground injury threshold that allows you to avoid a lot of these types of scores and field your emergency. 
Clearly, the other factor you have to acknowledge is that for whatever reason Whitfield does miss games. This year it was a nasty liver injury in the preseason that saw him miss the opening six games of the season. 
There also is some concern about what role he has in the Giants team. Whitfield has been deployed as deep as the Giants kick in taker who attacks from D50 or as high as a half-forward who pushes into the midfield and roams the ground. I don’t see these different roles yielding massively different outputs but it’s not as clear cut as other players like Jake Lloyd. 
I’m always drawn to the upside and Whitfield is the type of guy that any season could be the most valuable player in the game and if you’re chasing premierships that’s exactly what you want. 
MJ12 months ago I would have argued like Taranto Lachie Whitfield is a top tier guy. In fact, a case could’ve been made that he’s the player you should pick with the first pick in a new keeper league.
However, in the eyes of some, the concerns are starting to build. For me, they aren’t significant enough to scare me from picking him. However, it’s probably enough to fade him a tier or two.
When fit he’s a jet, but the games missed and in game injuries are slowly building. From a ‘glass half full’ perspective, none of these injuries really are related and are more on the ‘unlucky’ scale than anything else. 
Over the past three season we’ve seen him as one of the most valuable commodities in the draft as both a defender and forward. In 2019 he averaged 113 from 16 games, which featured 13 tons and a likely career high 190. 11 of his 15 games in 2020 where a BCV adjusted 100+ score, while Kane has already touched on his 2021 season.   
Whitfield is a kick first player, and even when tagged still uses his elite endurance to get into damaging spaces.
With the departures of Callum Mills and Rory Laird from the fantasy backline it opens up the possibility of Lachie being the top defender for 2022. I for one believe he will be. 
There is a risk that he becomes a midfielder only in the future, but given his positional versatility he should have multiple seasons where he’s a top tier defender or forward should that eventuate. 

Christian Petracca

KANEIt’s been an incredible past two seasons for Christian Petracca. He’s played all 39 home and away games and averaged 110 points, which puts him top 10 for total points across that time. 
The incredible part of Petracca’s game at the moment is his consistency. Only once this year did he dip below 80 and 14 times he delivered a ton. One of the main reasons for his consistency to me is his score build. In 2021 he averaged 29 disposals, 14 contested possessions, five marks, four tackles and a goal a game. There’s literally no category he’s deficit in. Additionally, he doesn’t get the tag because there’s no one who can match his power in the contest, movement around the ground and forward craft inside 50. 
The thing I think a lot of people are missing is his scoring power. In the last 12 games of the season, which stretches from Round 15 post bye all the way to the Grand Final, he averaged 117 points. In that span he reeled off 10 tons, five of which were 125+. This indicates to me there’s room for Petracca to improve on that career best average of 111 in the upcoming seasons. 
Throw in the likelihood that he’ll finish his career as a mid-forward and there’s not a lot not to like about Trac!
MJChristian Petracca is one of my favourites to own in a keeper league. The breakout took longer than keeper coaches wanted, but now that it’s happened it’s a thing of beauty.
With the adjusted game time and scores of 2020, it’s always challenging to put too much weight into the breakout. While he delivered an adjusted 108 keeper coaches will feel validated in his scoring potential after his 2021 season. 
In 2021 he averaged 110.8, scored 14 tons including 7 over 120. Oddly, he had a seven games stretch midseason where he had only 2 tons. But the front and back end of the season was fire!  CP5 averaged 115 over the first 6 and again 115 in the last 10. So arguably, he’s still got some more upside in him.
Equally as valuable as his scoring ability is his durability. Petracca has missed only one game in five years. I believe he’s the best player in the game right now, and opposition coaches can attest that night now he’s near impossible to stop. 
As we discussed in the podcast, don’t be shocked to see him regaining MID/FWD DPP in various parts of his career not just in his final few seasons. 

Callum Mills

KANEWe finally saw the role change we’d all been waiting for in 2021 from Callum Mills and he didn’t disappoint. 
Mills averaged 110 from his 18 games, but it jumps to 112 points if you remove Round 23 where he was subbed out with Achilles soreness in the third term. 
Consistency was the key to Mills’ fantasy game. In all 17 of his healthy games he scored 85 or more points and in 13 games he scored triple figures, including a 152 and 142. And again it’s no surprise that Mills has an extremely well-rounded scoring profile (28 disposals, 10 contested possessions, six marks and five tackles.)
The key for Mills going forward is can he start producing more ceiling games. Outside of his aforementioned 152 and 142, his only other 120+ scores were 133 and 121. We can’t expect a better floor but if he can start converting his 110s into 120-130s then a 115 average is within reach. 
Even if Mills is unable to up those ceiling games at 24 years of age he shapes as a top 10 midfielder for the next 5 years and there’s always the possibility for him to regain back status at the end of his career. 
MJThe role and scoring breakout finally happened! Keeper league owners for multiple seasons have been awaiting what we saw in 2021.
Callum Mills is an unassuming fantasy scorer. Those who watch the game (not the fantasty scoring during it) can be fooled into thinking he’s not scoring well. However, as Matt Boyd did for the better part of a decade, Mills just finds a way to get involved in everything and without copping much attention.   His scoring breakdown is well rounded. Consisting of 39% kicks, 24% handballs, 16% marks and 19% tackles.  To average 110 and to only deliver 3 games over 130 highlights his low scoring deviation and consistency. 
Mills will enter the 2022 season as a midfielder and farewell his defensive eligibility. The only thing we haven’t seen Callum encounter or overcome is how he handles a tag. But at 187cm and spending the majority of his AFL career as a defender, I think he’s had a solid apprenticeship to handle whatever comes his way. 
He may never become a player that delivers you a 120+ season, but he should be a highly valuable keeper commodity for the next 8+ seasons. 

Tim Taranto

KANETim Taranto bounced back from an injury-interrupted 2020 in a major way averaging 108 points. While his average wasn’t quite the same as his career best of 113 in 2019, for the majority of the season he was on pace for a career-best year.
From Round 1 to 18 he averaged 114 points, which included 13 tons and a lowest score of 86. However, in Round 19 there was a clear role change from centre bounce midfielder to forward. In the four games he played as a predominant forward he averaged 77 points and had a highest score of 98. 
This is clearly a massive concern for a player you’re drafting in the first two rounds of a keeper and while there’s some risk this role shift could continue I don’t think it’s that likely. 
I tend to think Taranto might have been carrying an injury and thus moved out of the midfield to protect him. Across his first 91 AFL games only once did he fail to lay a tackle and that was a 61% time on ground performance in his first season. In Round 19 and 20 this year he failed to lay a tackle and those were the two games he spent bulk time forward. 
To have a 23-year-old that has already produced averages of 113, 108, 94 and 91 inside his first five seasons at AFL level is insane. At worst you’re getting a top 30 midfielder for the next five years at best you could be getting a top five midfielder for the next 10 with the possibility of picking up dpp along the way. 
MJTim Taranto is the perfect reminder of how a player can move up and down the tiers within a season for keeper leagues. If this were being created mid-season you’d be hard pressed to not put him into one of the top 2 tiers.  So why the slide to tier three? It’s relatively simple. Role! I never in a million years thought that Leon Cameron would use ‘TT’ in a primary role other than as an inside midfielder.
However, in the final 5 weeks is when the role shifting started and he started playing more as a half-forward.   
During the first 17 games of the season, he averaged 113, posted 13 tons and had just one score under 90. In the final five games, he averaged 88. But that’s inflated as his big sole ton (132), was where he played back as a midfielder when Josh Kelly was a late out.  
His scoring ceiling is certainly limited if he plays significant midfield minutes. The potential upside is that if that role holds long enough he’d be a candidate to gain MID/FWD DPP. 
I don’t see any risk of selecting ‘TT’ in this tier, and at this point of a keeper draft, you cannot afford the risk. At best the 23 year old delivers on his proven history as a 110+ midfielder. Worst case scenario is he splits his time between midfield and forward but not enough to gain DPP. Therefore he probably becomes a 95 mid.
Taranto will give his owner another 7-8 seasons of top tier scoring potential.  I for one, see him delivering a ton in every single season during that stretch of time. 

Josh Dunkley

KANEI have to preface this article by saying I may be Josh Dunkley’s biggest fantasy believer. If you’ve listened to me talk about him on any podcast you’d know how highly I regard him and I think it’s warranted.  
So far his fantasy journey has had everything. In his first season he averaged 80 points and was part of the Bulldogs historic premiership. Year two a shoulder injury restricted him to just six games. 
Year three and four is where the fantasy potential started to become obvious to everyone. In 2018 he averaged 96 points, but in his 10 games post bye he went at 109. In 2019 he averaged a career-high 111 points but his season average again doesn’t tell the full story. In the first six games of the season he played forward for an average of 78 points. In Round 7 and for the remaining 16 games of the season he became a pure centre bounce midfielder and exploded, averaging 124 across the stretch. Included in that run were scores of 189, 158, 150 and 145, to showcase his elite ceiling. 
Unfortunately for Dunkley, year five and six have mirrored each other. An injury to his ankle in 2020 limited him to 11 home and away games, while a shoulder injury in 2021 kept him to 11 home and away games also. Despite missing large chunks of both seasons he’s still averaged 90+, which far from kills you. 
A lot of coaches will be scared off by his recent run of injury and inconsistent scoring (I think the two are closely linked) and overlook him inside the first two rounds but I think the upside is so high that he could be the best scorer in fantasy across the next five seasons. 
MJSome might be too turned away to grab Josh Dunkley this high in a keeper league, but his upside has his scoring potential up there with the best.
Unlike others on the list, his scoring forecast isn’t based on an unproven potential. Rather on what he has done. Over the ​​final sixteen matches of his 2019 season, he scored 14 tons, 9 of them were above 120, and 4 over 140 and an average of 123 after the move.
This is a perfect foreshadowing of what he delivered at the stuff of 2021. Before succumbing to a shoulder injury that required a reconstruction he was averaging 115 in the first six weeks of the year. In all of these games, he scored a ton, with a seasonal high including a 151.
Coming back from such a serious injury in season is an incredible effort. Throw in the fact he had to quarantine for 2 weeks after visiting a covid exposure site and it was a slower return to scoring than what he and his owners would’ve liked. Yet, over the last three finals, his tackle count started to return along with his contested possessions. In these games, he scored 95, 101 & 83.
Josh is still just 24, so time is on his side for his owners to continue to reap the benefits of his scoring. Personally, I believe he’ll retain MID/FWD status and be the top scoring forward of 2022. 

Rory Laird

KANEWhat a fantasy player Rory Laird is. Recruited off the rookie list he’s already produced seven premium seasons and none better than 2021. 
Playing as a centre bounce midfielder Laird averaged a career-high 112 points and reeled off 18 tons. Only once did he score sub 90 and that was a 75. 
The standout number for Laird though is clearly how he finished the season. From Round 12 to Round 23 he hit triple figures in every game and averaged 120 points. 
We know Laird is an incredible ball-winner (he averaged 32 disposals this year) but it was his six tackles a game that impressed me as his previous best was four and shows how well he adapted to the role change. 
In addition to his scoring prowess, Laird boasts near-perfect durability and always has the possibility of regaining back status at some point in his career. 
The one concern I see floated is the return of Matt Crouch and what impact that could have. I’m not overly fussed as I don’t see Crouch’s return reducing Laird’s CBA’s, particularly with Sloane likely to be phased out of the midfield as he enters the twilight of his career. 
At 28 years old you still have 3 years at least of strong scoring from a player who has shown to be a premium as a midfielder or defender. Throw in that he’s available every week, you can’t go wrong with Laird. 
MJRory Laird has been one of the best defensive premiums for years.  Between 2016 – 2020 he’s averaged  97, 100, 108, 97 and an adjusted 99 BCV. 
Midway through 2020, he had a role change as a pure midfielder. From then on in he averaged an adjusted 112, a foreshadowing of what was to come this season.
In 2021 this scoring trend continued. He averaged 111, scored 18 tons including 6 over 120. Throw in the fact he dipped his scoring beneath 90 just once and it was a near perfect season. 
Kane’s already highlighted the strong end to the season which would provide coaches with some confidence that perhaps he’s only getting better in the role. 
Over these podcast episodes, you’ve heard us discuss the value of a player having multiple scoring columns. Why does this matter? Simply, it enables a player to have a diversity of scoring options should one be limited either by oppositions game style or other variables.
Last year his scoring split was made up of 37% Kicks, 31% Handballs, 9% marks and 20% tackles. Laird has a near perfect fantasy game. He’s a ball winner, knows how to defend, boasts strong endurance and has the footy IQ to get into space for both offensive and defensive setups.
Not having Matt Crouch play did aid his scoring and midfield development. But Laird is so clever if anything I can only see a 5 ppg regression. Equally as likely is he hits the rare terrority of premium midfielders and backs up his 110 seasonal average. 

Jake Lloyd

KANEIt says a lot about Jake Lloyd that people are disappointed with a 98-point average but that’s the sense I’ve got from the community. 
I think most of that disappointment is rooted in just how well his previous two seasons were. In 2019 he averaged 107 and in 2020 he averaged 114*, which are mind boggling numbers for a defender and place him firmly among the top five most valuable players during that stretch. 
But you’re not here for the past and we want to know how he’ll go in the future. I have Lloyd as 90-100 defender for the next three years and wouldn’t be surprised with his elite durability (missed just one game in the past four seasons), fitness and foot skills that he can’t stretch that scoring for even five years. 
Doesn’t have the upside of some others in this tier but he’s just so safe and gives you a player to build your backline for the medium term at least. 
MJ12 months ago, Jake Lloyd was a genuine first round selection in a keeper league. Lloyd had developed his scoring to such great heights, that he was now seen by many as the undeniable clear best defender. 
While Rory Laird and Callum Mills amongst others went past his scoring last season, Jake still has something that these two no longer possess. Defensive Status!
At 28 years of age, Lloyd still delivered a solid 2021 season. It featured twelve tons and an additional five scores of 90-99. Where his scoring dried up was in his ceiling, last year he failed to deliver anything over 120. 
Regardless of this, he is still one of the most reliable and durable defensive options available. During the past six seasons, he’s missed just two matches.
The departure of Jordan Dawson doesn’t hurt his scoring upside, but it probably doesn’t drastically mean he’ll return to the 110+ seasons. However, over the next 3 seasons, I still see Lloyd as a 95-15 defender and in a keeper league given he’ll hold his status that’s a highly valuable asset.  
SuperCoach Season Wrap | 2021

Supercoach Season Wrap | 2021

With the Supercoach season complete what better time than now to do a review. After all, the clubs are doing their performance reviews this week (some better than others by the sounds) so why wouldn’t we serious coaches do the same!

This season wrap looks at two things. (1) What was; that is, the players’ scoring and how it all ended up in terms of rankings. And (2), what could’ve been; those opportunities that were provided for us or those harsh realities of injury and selection that dealt us a tough blow. This is probably the more triggering part as we look back on our decision-making and the bad luck we were hit with. 

Embed from Getty Images

What Was – The Player Rankings

Defenders

Rory Laird was the best defender by quite a margin, averaging 116 from 22 games. He was also the ninth best midfielder too, and as a DPP he was an extremely valuable player to have in our side. It’s no wonder nearly 60% of us had him. 

In somewhat of a surprise Daniel Rich took out the second best defender position. He was only owned by 13% of teams, and that’s at the end of the season. His form was solid and he ended up with an average of 107.  

Jack Crisp is also a tad surprising given other defensive options we had. With Darcy Moore’s injury Crisp had a terrific second half of the season and ended with an average of 104. He was only owned by 6.9% of teams in the end and puts himself in contention for our 2021 squads. 

Jake Lloyd was basically a lock at the start of the season with 50% of teams selecting him for round one. He didn’t have the year he had last year, but nonetheless he still averaged 107.8 and was the fourth best defender. A good pre-season and he’ll be a shoe-in again next year. 

His teammate, Jordan Dawson, has had a great season to average 101 and take the fifth best defender. He wasn’t particularly consistent but had some big number games, including the final round. Only 2% of coaches had him and they would have benefited greatly. 

To make up the final six is Jayden Short. He averaged 98.3 but caused his coaches a wide range of emotions with his up and down scoring. His solid performance meant he nudged out the likes of Tom Stewart, Jordan Ridley, and Callum Mills, all of whom had good but injury (or COVID) impacted years. 

Embed from Getty Images

Midfielders

It’s no surprise that Jack Macrae takes out the number one midfield spot, as he’s also the number ranked player across the board. He continues to put together strong seasons and is a lock in most starting lineups. His average of 128 and his durability to play 22 games will continue to keep him in the mix for a few years yet. 

Jack Steele had another great season, ranked number two in the midfield and had his ownership gradually increase as the season went on. This season showed his ceiling and a solid VC/C option for coaches. 

Clayton Oliver had another great season, albeit there were times as a Clarrie owner where I felt his form dipped when I needed him to perform. His average of 123 is nothing to smirk at though, and it’s no wonder he is owned by nearly 40% of teams. 

The Bont, Marcus Bontempelli, is another midfielder who is often one of the first picked in any side. He shared plenty of points with his teammates and was a regular top scorer for the Bulldogs. For 2022 he’ll be priced very competitively and plenty will jump on early if this year’s form is anything to go by. 

Become a Patron!

Each year we’re looking for that breakout player and for our midfielders this year that man was Touk Miller. There’s not much to write home about coming out of the Gold Coast Suns, but Miller’s form and solid scoring week in and week out proved that this year was a big one. In the end he averaged 124.5 and was the fifth best ranked midfielder. At the end of the season only 9% of us coaches ended up with him in our side so he continued to be a POD right up until the end. Another to look to start for 2022, albeit at a high price.

Another POD for the season came out of the Brisbane Lions. Jarryd Lyons ended up with 12% ownership and performed solidly throughout, showing off some terrific ceiling on his way to an average of 117.6. 

Other honourable mentions in our midfields are the likes of Tom Mitchell, Sam Walsh, Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish, and Ollie Wines. All of these guys averaged over 112 and played 22 games. It will be a hard decision to work out who to include in our starting teams next season. 

Embed from Getty Images

Rucks

For the first time in a couple of years the final ruck rankings do not start with Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy. 

Gawn did take out the number one ruck position, however it wasn’t as dominant as previous seasons. This was his lowest average (120) since injury impacted the 2017 season (97). Nevertheless, he was a set and forget option and continues to be for 2022, particularly with a lower starting price than this year. 

Nic Naitanui managed to take the second top ruck spot with some great scores and a full season of games. He’s often left off the Supercoach analysis as a sure thing because of previous injury affected seasons, and there’s a sense of not being able to trust him. This season proved he could do the job and will be a good price come 2022 that will make many consider more than they did this year. 

The breakout player for our ruck lines was easily Sean Darcy. Perhaps it’s because he plays for a team in the West that many coaches don’t consider him, but even as we close out the season he is only owned by 3% of teams. As a highlight, his 193 and 187 in rounds 16 and 17 were gems and turned heads throughout the SC community. One to ponder for 2022 for sure. 

Brodie Grundy didn’t really have the season we expected of him, particularly after that neck injury. He still managed an average of 115 from 20 games, and quite some way in front of the likes of Todd Goldsteain (100.8) and Tom Hickey (103.3).

Embed from Getty Images

Forwards

The forward lines were the most troubling of the lot for us, if I remember rightly. There weren’t many on offer, nor were there decent enough rookie options throughout the season, and there were plenty of injuries affecting forwards or DPP’s. 

However, Dayne Zorko showed up to take the number one forward position (keeping in mind he’s a DPP). He has had a good ceiling for many years and a solid performer for many teams. His average of 109 was competitive, but also pushed higher with games of 140, 162, and 173. He can have an off day and when he does it can make a significant impact on our side. However, with Lachie Neale out for a good chunk of time during the season Zorko played alongside Lyons and shared the points with him often enough. 

Do you remember the whole debate about whether to bring Jack Ziebell in or not, particularly after the start he had? By the end of round six he was averaging 127! His scoring wasn’t sustainable, but in the end he was able to keep the second best ranking for a forward through the league, which is impressive given he claimed a wooden spoon and played off half back most of the time. 

Ziebell’s teammate Aaron Hall came in as the best third forward, averaging 105 from 20 games. Not being selected for round one, and his first 3-4 performances really put people off jumping on him quickly. However, since Round 7 he only dipped below 100 once and so made his position secure in plenty of teams and was a solid player for those 18% of coaches that had him. 

Bailey Dale knocked together a solid season. His average was only 95 in the end but he was a decent enough replacement for Josh Dunkley when he went down with injury. 

It’s not all that common to have a true key forward in the top player rankings by the end of the season but Tom Hawkins makes it to number five with an average of 93.9. With the start of the season that Taylor Walker had we may have expected him to still be up here, but that form certainly didn’t continue. However, Hawkins made it this year because plenty of other forwards didn’t average their usual or what was expected of them. 

The breakout player in our forward lines was certainly Essendon’s Nick Hind. A couple of pre-seasons now, and a full season of games into him and look what happens. He only averaged 93.0 but made it into the sixth best forward for the season. In the end only 8% of coaches had him, and were rewarded for their risk-taking. 

Embed from Getty Images

What Could Have Been – The Injuries and Selections

SuperCoach is always a game of what could’ve been. There are sliding door moments each and every week as we navigate trades, captain selections, and strategies around injuries and suspensions. What could have been makes for some of the best banter about Supercoach. 

In 12 years of playing the game I can’t quite remember such a volatile season with injuries, selections (and those dreaded late-outs), and of course this COVID thing. Let me just list off those players who may have impacted you at some point, perhaps even as far back as the pre-season: Lachie Whitfield, Patrick Dangerfield, Matt Rowell, Josh Dunkley, Zac Butters, Bachar Houli, Darcy Moore, Lachie Neale, Jeremy Howe, Luke Ryan, Patrick Cripps, Jordan Ridley, Mitch Duncan, Josh Kelly, Rowan Marshall, Nat Fyfe, Toby Greene, Sam Docherty, Hugh Greenwood, Callum Mills, Dustin Martin, and Tom Stewart. That’s a fairly long list of significant players who were out for a period of time. It was carnage for a few coaches regularly throughout the season. 

On the other side of the ledger there are always those precious rookies and mid-pricers who seem to do more than we think they’re capable of. Think of the Hawthorn duo, Changkuoth Jiath and Jarman Impey. They both made coaches some solid points in the first half of the season and plenty of coin to trade with as well. As mentioned previously, a Crisp, Dawson, Mills type helped considerably along the way. The Sydney rookie midfielders were very serviceable in those opening six rounds, Braedan Campbell, Chad Warner, and Errol Gulden.

James Jordon certainly provided some points and cash for those who timed it right, and North Melbourne’s Tom Powell did the same. And of course, one of the bigger targets for many coaches at the start was Matt Flynn, an R2 strategy for many in the end. He managed to grab the coin we needed but was omitted for a couple of weeks there which raised concerns come bye time. Those mid-pricers or competitive priced players who made good on their promising risk were the likes of Dyson Heppell, Darcy Parish, Nick Hind, Aaron Hall, and perhaps Jordan De Goey for his second half of season. 

Needless to say, there were some breakouts, there were some flops, but whatever the case it was another season to learn from and take the opportunity to improve on for next season. It’s those could’ve and should’ve moments that may make us shudder, but at the end of the day we’ve got to keep it all in perspective and they provide any chance to learn for next year. And sometimes it’s just unlucky. With this in mind, rest easy from Supercoach and sit and enjoy the promising finals series. Well done again on making it through the season, and all the best in your pre-season preparations for 2021.