With the 2023 SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam season officially over, it’s time to review the year in full, one club at a time. First up for our 2023 Fantasy Footy reviews is the Carlton Football Club.
For big chunks of 2023, Sam Docherty was a dominant defensive force for the fantasy community. After a patchy opening month and then missing a few weeks of footy, Sam returned in round seven and once again proved why so many coaches started him in AFLFantasy, SuperCoach & DreamTeam. From round nine until the season’s end, he posted nine AFLFantasy tons, three extra scores over 90 and nothing under 80. It was a similar picture of dominance with nine SuperCoach tons and four scores of 90+. He ended 2023 ranked as one-third in AFLFantasy amongst all defenders by average, going at 104.5 and eighth in SuperCoach with an average of 100.6
As the season went on, the Blues played Doc more consistently across the wing and through centre bounces, so much so that it won’t surprise me to see him eligible as a midfielder only to start the 2024 season.
Carlton provided us with only a few candidates under this category, although many started with Lachie Cowan; the defender did play the opening six games of the year. After that, he was quickly out of the Calrton team and our fantasy footy sides. Alex Cincotta became one of the most highly traded cash cows during the season after debuting in round six.
His DEF/MID status became hugely valuable and arguably more helpful for depth and coverage as he went on to play sixteen games and averaged 55.2 in SuperCoach and 48.1 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. He generated $201,500 in SuperCoach, $202,000 in AFLFantasy and $271,600 in DreamTeam.
During the 50 most relevant in the preseason, we discussed the recent history of Brownlow Medal winners having a scoring hangover the following season. Patrick Cripps has become another ‘victim’ of the curse, dropping his average by 14 points per game to 88 in AFLFantasy and 97.5 in SuperCoach. Those averages are fine, but given what you paid for him in classic or positionally in draft formats, he probably let you down and didn’t quite work out how you’d hoped.
Perspective is everything in fantasy football. And when a player averages 94.6 in AFLFantasy and 103.2 in SuperCoach, for most players, that would be considered a successful season. That wasn’t the case for Sam Walsh. The former #1 pick showed flashes of brilliance after returning from an offseason injury; his first 5-6 weeks were sensational. But his scoring faded as the year went on.
This wasn’t just due to some role volatility but mostly due to his rebuilding his fitness base. The primary weapon in Sam’s football arsenal is his endurance and ability to cover the ground better than anyone. Having no preseason impacted him and, as a result, his fantasy output. But as we say most years, one year’s frustration is the coming season’s blessing.
Sam will come in between 10-15 points below his previous two seasons averages and will likely be highly hyped through the preseason. This is being further enhanced during the AFL Finals series, with him scoring back-to-back tons in the first two finals and being a significant reason for the Blues pushing deep into September. Plenty will be on him next year, and I’m super keen to be part of the ownership party!
Tuesday afternoon, the bad news hit. Sam Docherty will miss the next 4-6 weeks after undergoing surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee. The result is a forced trade for owners, but which player comes into their side? Let’s take a look at some of the best prospects.
It’s a potentially painful time for any fantasy coach when an injury forces your trading timelines and requires you to adapt your weekly plans. As frustrating as it can be, we must see every obstacle as an opportunity. With a player as highly owned as Doc, it creates incredible possibilities for you if you treat this situation right. Before looking at some specific players or scenarios, here is some broader advice that can help point you to the right trading avenue for you and your team. But don’t forget, with Carlton playing in the first game of the round you need to make your decisions before seeing any other side play or have the full Sunday teams revealed.
Look at the Big Picture
It’s going to happen. Too many coaches will panic this week. They’ll see the injury to Docherty, hear of the impending rest to Reuben Ginbey and question the scoring capacity of cows like Dary Wilmot, Lachie Cowan or Miller Bergman. As a result, they’ll make the most obvious sideways trade possible. The obvious is alright; it’s the right play in some situations, but great fantasy coaches don’t just accept the obvious. They look at all possibilities.
For example, do you have Harry Sheezel or Jack Ziebell in your forward line? In just days, both will be awarded DPP and get defender status (see who else I think gets it here.) Does their inclusion on your side as defenders next mean you can now look at moving Docherty onto a premium in another line? Whatever trade you make, think about something other than the side for one week. The impact of the trade will be felt for the rest of the year, so think about what your side looks like in the bigger story beyond just round five.
For example, you can build a case that Touk Miller, Josh Kelly and, depending on the format you play, even Noah Anderson, are all ripe for the picking. Does copping a lower cows defender score on the field like Cowan for the week (who remember he could get a scoring bump with no Doc) in combination with a Kelly make your team longer-term stronger than adding a defensive premium and a midfield cow? If it does, and structurally, you’ve got the cavalry coming into the backline, it might be worth a play.
Another illustration could be that your team still has some frustrating failed picks. That could be from dead cash cows like Charlie Constable and Campbell Chesser to Andrew McGrath and Hayden Young. The combined cash allocation could mean you’ve got the opportunity to think vertically and potentially laterally. Can this injury to Docherty create a combination approach where you can find yourself in a stronger overall position? I’ll look at some possible names later on.
How risk averse are you? How aggressive do you like to be with your trades? Knowing who you are and how you play the game will give insight into how you should approach this. For the more conservative coach, a simple sideways trade to the best defensive premium you can afford might be the right play for you. Other more adventurous coaches may force the needle and move Docherty onto a midprice player or go heavy on a uniquely owned option. Of course, neither approach is ‘wrong’ right now; only hindsight will confirm that. But you need to know who you are, how you play & the compounding moves you will or won’t make due to the trade with Docherty.
Only so many premium defenders across the formats have had a strong first four weeks. You could narrow it down to two. Jordan Dawson and Nick Daicos. Both have been superb, and a move to either, if unowned, is warranted. With everything we’ve seen and know, both look destined to be among the top few defenders in 2023. Ideally, we’d all love to own both at some stage during the season and Doc to either is certainly a strong play.
Already Own Them, but want a premium.
It might be format dependent, but in SuperCoach, Tom Stewart has shown for years he’s one of the safest 100+ defenders in the game. Just cast your mind back to his Gold Coast Suns match, where he went at 167, and you are reminded of his scoring pedigree. After dropping $31,200 last week and breakeven of 69, it’s a good time to jump on. He’s a play for DT/AF, but history shows that SC is certainly where he’s a premier pick.
James Sicily has had two bumper and two OK weeks to start the season. The challenge is that in a fortnight, he’ll arguably bottom out in the price. That said, if money isn’t a factor and you want to get the best premium defender you are missing, then James needs to be considered.
The Probables
What more does Dan Rioli need to do before the fantasy community starts to acknowledge him? He’s averaging 99 for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 98.2 in SuperCoach. On the current trend, there’s every chance he’s a top-ten defender in 2023. Speaking of top defenders, Jack Sinclair was among the best defenders last year. While down approximately ten points per game from last year’s average, he’s still ranked ninth in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and eleventh in SuperCoach for total points among all defenders this year.
Luke Ryan has started the season white hot, with only Nick Daicos as the only defender to score more than him this year. Historically, he’s been close to cracking the top-tier defenders but never quite made it. If the Dockers keep playing a heavy kick/mark game, then not only is he a great unique, but he’ll be the one that very quickly will get his price point to a range that’ll see him get away from many.
The Uniques
As good as Daicos and Dawson have been, they aren’t the only defenders that have started the season well. So if you want to separate from the pack and bring in something unique, you have options.
Mason Redman is averaging 102 in SuperCoach and 99 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. With just 2.2% ownership in AFLFantasy, 3% in SuperCoach & 1% in DreamTeam, he’s unique. So too, is Adam Saad. He’s averaging 115 in SuperCoach and is in just 5% of sides. That’s coming off the back of averaging over 100 last year. While for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, Lachie Weller is currently averaging 95 in his last three and is priced well below that.
I’m never a huge fan of trading into someone at this stage of the season based solely on ownership percentage, but if you want a unique one, there are plenty of considerations.
The Combinations
Are you viewing this injury as an opportunity to maximise the cash he has left available and, with two trades, look to improve your team? This can be an opportunistic way to correct your structure or fix up some missed opportunities.
In the backline alone, we’ve got many options delivering considerably stronger points return than their price point. For example, all Trent Rivers, Darcy Macpherson, Jayden Hunt, Connor McKenna, Liam Stocker, and even the cow many missed in Max Michaelanney deliver above their price tag. Could a double-trade combination of names like this help your structure and put your team in better points-scoring and cash-generation space in the long run?
While I’ve listed a combination of defenders, the strategy needs to be looked at broader than that. For example, can you use the injury to get James Worpel, Jacob Hopper, or Finn Callaghan moved on if you no longer wish to employ their services? Take a moment to look at your team and see if there is a combination of moves that can help get it back to where you want it to be.
One of the great stories of the 2022 season was the journey of Sam Docherty overcoming cancer. Alongside this, he put together one of the best SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam seasons of all defenders. Can he do it again in 2023?
PLAYER PROFILE
Name: Sam Docherty Age: 29 Club: Carlton Blues Position: Defender
2022 Highest Score: 138 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy) 144 Vs Richmond (SuperCoach)
Career Highest Score: 159 Vs Sydney | AFLFantasy (2017) 185 Vs Essendon | SuperCoach (2020)
Sam Docherty has overcome plenty in his AFL career, from multiple ACLs to battling and overcoming cancer. The fact that he did this and then played a full AFL season with no preseason is a monumental achievement. He ranked inside the top ten per game for kicks, effective disposals and uncontested possessions and was in the top twenty ranks across the competition for marks, disposals, meters gained and rebound 50s.
He is a talented and versatile player who can play both midfield and defence. He is known for his strong kicking ability, elite decision-making skills, and ability to read the game well. In addition, his impressive work rate and commitment to his team’s success make him a valuable asset on the field.
From his 22 games last year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored sixteen tons, seven of those were 120 or higher. That featured a three over 130 and a season-high of 138. He had three additional scores between 98-99 and had just two scores all season where he fell below 80. Doc ended the season as the #1 ranked defender by points and averages. While he’s ranked third overall for total points. Only Callum Mills and Andrew Brayshaw.
In SuperCoach, he posted fourteen tons; ten of those were over 120 and five higher than 130. Alongside this was four additional scores above 90, and in only three games did his scoring fall under 80. His lowest score of the season was 73. He finished third amongst all defenders for total points and fourth by averages. While also maintaining the thirteenth spot for most points last year across all of SuperCoach.
While only a few started with Docherty, there was a direct correlation between owning him and having a successful season. You were chasing your tail if you didn’t get him inside the first 8-10 weeks of the season. And if you did get him, you were paying up for him. Unfortunately, Sam didn’t allow you to get him at a cheaper range. That’s due to the fact to the fact that his scoring basement was so high.
So often, when people talk about Docherty’s fantasy pedigree, they refer back to his scoring era of 2016 & 2017. And understandably so. He averaged 101 & 117 in AFLFantasy/DreanTeam & for SuperCoach, he went at 108.5 & 114.7. But that was a very different era: a different team, game style and fantasy footy world. Thankfully we don’t have to go back over half a decade to prove that Sam’s 2022 season wasn’t just a renaissance revival. His 2021 was still very solid.
That year he averaged 98.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and scored six tons, including two over 120. He had five additional scores between 90-99 and had his scoring drop below 80 in just two matches. For SuperCoach, he averaged 97.9, five tons and three over 120. He had five extra scores over 90 and only had two games under 80 all year.
There’s plenty of uncertainty in the backline. Can Jack Sinclair do it again under a new coach? Or will he regress to the fantasy football Bermuda triangle? Will Tom Stewart play 20+ games? Or will the Geelong rotational resting policy decimate his season? Does Jordan Dawson thrive or dive under the Adelaide captaincy? And does James Sicily‘s domination aid the development of Hawks youngsters? Sometimes it’s easy to remove all the probabilities and variables and stick with the most likely. However, one thing is for certain in our backlines; Sam Docherty will be among the top-tier defenders again in 2023.
There are two significant players currently out of the Carlton side. Zac Williams is out for the year with a knee injury. And Sam Walsh with a less definitive timeline coming off back surgery. Does either of these injuries open up or create a forced role move for Sam Docherty?
During the final two games of 2022, Carlton was forced into a move that saw Doch move into the midfield as a primary centre-bounce midfielder. In those two games, he attended 75% & 88% of CBA’s. Doch averaged 130 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 129.5 in SuperCoach. If Sam stays there, he could well score at the rate to become the best fantasy player for the year. While if he moves ‘back’ to the defensive line, we’ll likely see comparable scoring from 2022. I can handle that downside!
What role will Sam play in 2023? He addressed this himself recently when speaking to the Carlton Media team. He said, “I’ve done most of the training in the midfield, but that was just to add some more flexibility to the team and see where I was best suited.” However, he added that nothing had been locked away, and they’ll wait and see if they want to persist with that or send him back to the backline. Thankfully, we’ll get a good glimpse of this in the preseason games.
Sam Docherty is a potential captaincy option, especially considering his strong performances in previous seasons. He showed across formats on multiple instances last year that he’s capable of matching the ceiling of most of our topline midfield premiums.
One of the big questions of the preseason for the community is this. Is it worth ‘paying up’ for premiums that are at the top of the price tree? In summary, the true story is it depends on various factors such as the type of player investment, the current positional variables, the potential return on investment, and your personal goals and risk tolerance. Generally, it’s important to carefully consider the potential risks and rewards before making any decision, and paying top dollar doesn’t necessarily guarantee a good return on investment. Of course, nothing can ever be guaranteed, but his scoring appears to be the most bulletproof and reliable of all defenders. It’s how he has now, for multiple seasons, shown he’s the #1 defender across formats.
So often, we make a big deal about the value and a player’s price in our starting squads. And when we do that to an extreme, we start looking only to start players that are ‘value’ and potentially underpriced. You’re not picking him for value at the price tag of obtaining Docherty. You’re selecting him for his points delivery. The price is what he is, so he’s not expensive or overpriced; it’s what he is! So, yes, there will likely be a time in the season he’s cheaper. But my question to you is twofold.
One, can you secure him at the lowest price point? Unless you’re predicting a massive scoring drop, it will be little you save, and you’ll need to capitalise early. Second, even if you can generate the funds to trade into him, will the volume of cash and trades to get up towards him be worth it? History says it’ll be a very limited time window if one at all.
I’ve been playing fantasy AFL for over a decade when an old boss got me into it. I remember one of the first major mindset transitions that helped me move from a ‘casual’ league-focused player into someone who’s more focussed on rankings was this. Minimise risk! Identify the players that by choosing not to select, you open yourself up to risk. That risk could be found through ownership percentage or a scoring potential. That risk can also be more format dependent.
For example, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, I believe that Doch will be the clear and supreme defender option. However, I don’t forecast anyone getting within 5-10 points of him. Therefore, I’m locking him into my sides in these formats. In SuperCoach, he has the least question marks around him of the top five defenders. He’s also the cheapest.
Docherty is a talented and undeniable fantasy prospect. But starting him or targeting him as an upgrade will ultimately depend on your overall team strategy and the other available options. Consider all the factors, such as his recent form, injury history, team structure, upgrade forecasts and upcoming fixtures, before making a decision.
DRAFT DECISION
Due to his strong performances in previous seasons, Sam Docherty is a premium defender in AFLFantasy and SuperCoach. He is projected to be drafted in the first few selections of most fantasy drafts, and depending on the size of the league and scoring system, he may have been a good option as early as the first round.
I’ve got him ranked as a clear first-round selection in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and arguably worthy of a top-five pick. In SuperCoach, a blanket could be thrown over the scoring between Sam Docherty, James Sicily, Tom Stewart, Jordan Dawson and Jack Sinclair. In that case, I’d pick the one that fell to me later in the second round to the early third round of a draft.
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Two weeks of the multi bye rounds are over. We now have an additional four teams with no more scheduled rests for the remainder of the season. So here’s a club by club breakdown of potential upgrade targets who have just had their bye round.
A one game suspension for Dayne Zorko rules himself out of a trade target this week. It’s a frustrating loss for current owners who cop an extra 0 in round 14. But for coaches wanting to trade into one of the best forwards of the season, you’ll need to wait another week. In SuperCoach, he’s averaging 108.7 across the season, including a rolling monster three game average of 133. While for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s going at 103.8 for the season and since round 5 has only had one score below 100. It’s not a ‘buy low’ option, but on the current trend, he’s been the most reliable, durable and consistent premium forward of 2021.
On the topic of ‘paying for what you get’ Jarryd Lyons has been one of the most reliable players of the season. In SuperCoach, he’s currently ranked inside the top 10 players in the format with an average of 119, made of 11 tons from his 12 games this year. Similarly, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s dominating with an average of 111.7 and just one score below 95 all season. To go with his high scoring floor is a newly discovered ceiling that makes him a genuine captaincy options in most games.
When the discussion around premium defenders comes up the following names come up frequently and rightfully so. Rory Laird, Tom Stewart, Jake Lloyd, Callum Mills etc. However. Daniel Rich, deserves to be discussed in this category too. For SuperCoach, He’s ranked 6th for total points and by averages amongst all defenders. His average of 104.6 and just one score under 89 all year makes him an attractive premium prospect. What should increase ‘buy’ stocks on him even more so his ownership in just 5% of teams is criminally low for the season he’s delivered.
Across in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s ranked 6th for total points (1,189) and 7th for averages (99.1). Just like in SC, his scoring basement (80) is high, while he does offer a ceiling (131) which is something he’s struggled to deliver at times in this format. Like his teammate Jarryd Lyons, he’s unique and he’s top tier low scoring variance option.
We can’t speak about the Brisbane Lions and not discuss the reigning Brownlow Medalist Lachie Neale. He started the season as the most expensive midfielder, but after suffering from a preseason back injury it limited his early season form. However, he started to get back to his best in 5 against Essendon. In that match he scored 145 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 157 in SuperCoach. However, the very next week he suffered an ankle injury that saw him miss the next 6 weeks.
In his come back match against Essendon before the bye he had 26 possession, 14 of them contested and going at 80% efficiency. Importantly he won 9 clearances and had 3 score involvements. At his price this isn’t the perfect week to get him. His breakeven while attainable given his lofty history, is still a week or so away from basement price.
Then add a matchup with Mark O’Connor the following week who towled him up earlier in the season in round two you might be tempted to wait one further week. However, if you look at the Brisbane fixture after round 15, it opens up like crazy for last years Preliminary finalists. They play Adelaide, St Kilda, Richmond, Hawthorn and Gold Coast. You couldn’t ask for a better run, and no ‘tagger’ among them.
In SuperCoach heading into round 16, he’s projected to be priced about $530,000 while in AFLFantasy it’ll be $700,000 and similar in DreamTeam. At those price point if you need a M8 he’ll be very difficult to ignore given that fixture and his history.
Four weeks ago wSA the perfect ‘buy low’ on Patrick Cripps. In that time he posted 3 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam 100’s and posted a season high 133 in SuperCoach just two games ago against the Swans. A combination of managing injuries and him being used more forward than I like is seeing ‘Crippa’ not deliver the consistency of scoring he has in the past. For me, he’s still a solid option. But I’d only go there if cash generation and trades is a major problem and you need to start taking ‘the best available in a range.’
I don’t really want to write up about Nic Newman, but I feel an obligation to do so somewhere inside of me. He’s got a fantasy pedigree and is someone I wouldn’t be shocked to average 90 over the final 10 weeks of the season. However, for me, I see some better value options at a comparable or cheaper price. Plus, I don’t see him averaging enough to be a top 10 defender over the final 10 weeks. Pass for me, but others might see it differently.
The one to target for me from the Blues is Zac Williams. History tells us that he’s an elite rebounding defender, and when given the opportunity, he can be a 90 defender if not greater. Over the past 3 weeks, Carlton have seemingly abandoned the ‘he’s a midfielder’ plan, and since moving back, he’s started to play well and deliver the fantasy scoring. In his last three games, he’s averaging 102 in SuperCoach, while in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s scored two games between 90-99.
Nic Newman and Zac Williams’s additions into the defensive unit have meant that Sam Docherty’s scoring has taken a hit. Why? Because he’s been moved out of his preferred halfback role and asked to play more across the wing. He’s been excellent over the totality of the season, but as long as he’s not the prime mover for the Blues, I wouldn’t be trading into him.
Carlton has replaced their midfield reliance on Patrick Cripps for an overreliance on Sam Walsh. At the start of the season, he was one of the easiest starting squad plays. His current average of 110 in SuperCoach and 108 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam shows that owners have been justified with the selection. If you’re looking to bring him in, it’s not a ‘cheap pick’, it’s not a ‘unique pick’, nor is he in reality yet a ‘captaincy pick.’ But as an owner across the formats, owning him is a fun pick!
The recently re-signed ‘bomber for life’ Zach Merrett is enjoying another consistent year. He’s yet again averaging 110 across the formats, and barring one exception against North Melbourne, has been a picture of consistency. One thing you want when trading into a premium is to time it with a favourable matchup. That way, you get the immediate scoring bump into your lineup.
This happens for Merrett owners this week, coming up against Hawthorn side that lacks midfield Power and giving up plenty of fantasy points to opposition players.
Fantasy Footy 101 is what? Buy Low, Sell High! Darcy Parish has been sensational since his move into the midfield. Yes, he’s a captaincy option, and yes, he’s unique. But for it to be worth the investment, he needs to go 135 over the rest of the seasons 10 games. Can he? Possibly, will he? I don’t think so! Well done if you own him, but until that price bottoms out a little, it’s a pass from me.
On current form, Kyle Langford is one of the form forwards of the competition. The bombers midfield injury crisis has also aided his scoring boost, averaging over 110 across all formats of the game in the past three games. This midfield role should continue for the next few weeks, which means the scoring trend will follow suit. My only word of caution is to keep an eye on the returning Dylan Shiel in 2-3 weeks and what impact his role may have.
One of the best starting squad options in 2021 has been Nick Hind. The former Saint has been outstanding as the club’s replacement for Adam Saad. While he hasn’t popped too many high ceiling games yet, he’s offered incredible consistent scoring. If your forward line is looking for a bankable 90 from now till seasons end, Hind is your guy.
After a strong opening month where he averaged 133 in SuperCoach and 108 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, Jordan Ridley slowed a little late. He might scare many of on current form, but he has a history of being a top tier defender. Part of the problem has been the sharing of kick out duties that he held a monopoly on during that opening month. He’s a great buy low option, especially if he can get back some of that kick in ownership.
If your ranking has you near the top of the tree, then chances are you’ve own Jackson Macrae for large portions of the season. He’s the only player across all formats of the game that’s scored 100 or more in every match. He’ll cost you a large chunk of coin, but his current owners will testify that he’s worth every cent. If you don’t own him, you need to wait and hope he drops a stinker. If you have non-owners remorse, it’s because players like Macrae you want for all the season, not just portions of it. Learn from it!
Is he a must have? Honestly, no. Why? Two reasons, if you’re trying to make up ground on the current leaders, he won’t be unique to help you do that. Second, as good as he’s been this year (and he’s been spectacular) across the formats, we have cheaper options that are scoring within a handful of points of him, such as Touk Miller.
I won’t talk anyone out of owning him. He’s a jet and is clearly a VC/C option every week! The only thing I would say is this, can you invest the money in other options that in totality improve your side overall?
You can’t talk about the Bulldogs and not highlight their skipper in Marcus Bontempelli. He’s having a career best season so far. His current SuperCoach average of 126 is 10 points clear on anything he’s down ever in his career. Similarly, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, it’s the first time he’s averaged over 110.
Bont has gone on hot runs like this before and averaging similar numbers. What prospective buyers will need from this investment is a return that is comparable or greater than his current average. If he doesn’t, then paying ‘overs’ can cripple your rush to end the season. Since round 4 in SuperCoach, he’s hit the ton in every match, including 7 games north of 125. While AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s on a run of eight consecutive 100’s.
Lachie Hunter has a history of averaging 100 across the formats, but if there was a version of the game you want him more than others in 2021, it’s AFLFantasy. Simply because he gained MID/FWD DPP just a few weeks back.
He is averaging 112.7 in his past three games in SuperCoach and is coming off the back of four consecutive tons. While grabbing him ‘on the cheap’ is certainly tempting,he’s not the only value option in that range. For around $50k cheaper, coaches might be more tempted in the value of Patrick Cripps. Kangaroo Jy Simpkin has had 3 tons in his last 4 games, including a monster 164 and last weekends 128. Hunter is good, but will he offer the ceiling and value of these other options?
A seasonal average of 86 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam is certainly unders what he’s done historically. Still, the major reason for a slow start to the season was him being squeezed off the wing and onto a half forward line. With injuries to Josh Dunkley and Adam Treloar, Lachie has moved back to his preferred wing role and has since averaged 98 in his past three games. In AFLFantasy, he’s an easy buy this week, and at $642k, it won’t take a rocket scientist to see him as a target this week.
Bailey Dale has been the surprise packet of the year. Nobody called this performance coming from him. An average of 97 in SuperCoach for the season and 105 in the last five. While for the year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s running at 86, with that increasing to 93 in his last five games. Dale has been one of the most consistent performing forward options available. If you believe his recent trend continues, then a combination of that plus his low ownership might make him the perfect unique pick for the run home.
Lastly, Caleb Daniel might not be the most attractive pick, but over the course of the past 2 & 1/2 seasons, he’s a proven 90 defender in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 100 in SuperCoach. It’s a safe play and certainly something I could get behind if a coach wanted him in.
Marcus Bontempelli | $623,900 Average 116 | 7% Ownership
Last year we saw Marcus Bontempelli at some of his personal best. In the AFL he ranked 2nd for centre clearances, 6th inside ’50s, 9th for tackles & 18th for score involvements. Impressively he isn’t just an attacking midfielder. Bont is prepared to do the tough defence work. Despite the shorter quarters, he still averaged the same amount of tackles in 2020 that he did from 2019.
In SuperCoach, he ranked 5th among all mids for both total points and averages. He scored 11 tons; 6 of these were over 120, while a monster 3 went over 160, including his personal best 199. To top the season off, he ended 2020 with 8 consecutive tons to average 135 over the season’s final 8 matches. Over this stretch of games, he was the top ranked SuperCOach midfielder in the game
Earlier in the preseason, he was featured in the 50 Most Relevant. You can read the full article and listen to the podcast here.
Josh Kelly’s SuperCoach average of 114.5 consisted of 10 tons, 5 of them over 120, including that 195 against Richmond. On top of this high ceiling is a strong scoring floor with just one score under 80 all year.
Kelly’s scoring consistency is elite over the previous four seasons, where he’s averaged 113+. The concern isn’t around his scoring potential. The query is around games played. While those concerns are valid (and we’ll talk about them soon), he is in the rare territory of midfield premiums that has shown multiple years, averaging well over 110 in the past three seasons.
Earlier in the preseason, he was featured in the 50 Most Relevant. You can read the full article and listen to the podcast here.
In SuperCoach over the first three weeks, Matt Crouch was averaging 88. However, over the final 13 games, he averaged 115 including 10 tons, five of them over 120 including a career high 162. After the home and away season he ended the year averaging 110 and having just two scores under 90 all year.
It wasn’t just his fantasy output that took a dramatic turn, but it was also his workrate off the ball and defensive efforts. In his first 102 games of AFL, only in 2 matches, he returned a tackle count of 10 tackles or more. However, in two of his final five matches this year, he handed out a 12 in one game and 14 tackles in another. Easily the two highest of his career.
Earlier in the preseason, he was featured in the 50 Most Relevant. You can read the full article and listen to the podcast here.
Stephen Coniglio | $528,900 Average 98 | 2% Ownership
History suggests that Stephen Coniglio is a regular 105+ midfielder. As the skipper for the club for his second season, he’s no doubt striving to get himself and his Giants back into the league’s top echelon.
Even in a ‘poor’ 2020 season, he still managed 9 tons, including a season high 141 against the Lions. The season prior, he joined the elite company of scoring over 200. He did this in round 11 against the Gold Coast Suns with a 207. Across the season, he had nine tons and four over 130.
Reilly O’Brien | $570,800 Average 106 | 6% Ownership
In SuperCoach Reilly O’Brien ranked as the 20th best performer across the competition for averages and total points. He averaged 106 across the year; it included 9 tons, 4 of which were over 120 and he dipped his scoring below 82 in just one match all year.
O’Brien is the only ruck that can challenge Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy for the top two mantle. Why? Not just because of his obvious scoring capacity, but because he has the least ‘internal’ challenges or challengers to overcome.
Earlier in the preseason, he was featured in the 50 Most Relevant. You can read the full article and listen to the podcast here.
For SuperCoach, Dayne Zorko averaged 98 across the year, posted 8 tons and showcased his scoring ceiling, with two of those tons being over 120. It was a slower start to the year for Zorko, but after returning from injury in round 6, he averaged 105 across the formats for the remaining 12 games.
If you were to contrast his 2020 scores amongst currently available forward, then in SuperCoach, he’s ranked 7th for total points and 8th for averages.
Earlier in the preseason, he was featured in the 50 Most Relevant. You can read the full article and listen to the podcast here.
Already ranked as the 11th most expensive forward, Zak Butters likely develops into a top 10 forward this year. In 2020 he had 6 tons, including a 124 and a 125.
What hurts his scoring last year is that he is still prone to the odd stinker. Last year he had 2 games where he scored under 40. If he can raise that scoring floor to be consistently 60+ for bad games, then he’ll be a legitimate top tier consideration.
Jordan Ridley | $547,700 Average 102 | 7% Ownership
Last season Jordan Ridley averaged 18 disposals 6 marks, 4 rebound 50’s and went at an elite 87 disposal efficiency. He ranked 2nd for effective disposals per game across the league, 6th for total marks per game and ranked 16th for total rebound ’50s.
His SuperCoach season saw a total increased of 35 points per game from his 2019 average. During the 2020 season, he averaged 101, had ten scores over 100, four over 120 and dipped below 70 in just one game. He ended the season ranked fifth for total points and seventh by the average for all defenders.
Earlier in the preseason, he was featured in the 50 Most Relevant. You can read the full article and listen to the podcast here.
Nick Haynes averaged 90.8 from 11 games when playing with Zac Williams. In the 6 games he played without him, he averaged 112.2. Across the whole season, he scored 9 tons, including a 148 and a 139.
We now have genuine question marks over a few core defender. Will Lachie Whitfield will be fit round one? Does the MID/FWD role split of Zac Williams be favourable or not to scoring? What makes him even better is the fitness of key defenders Sam Taylor and Phil Davis. With both these talls playing, it frees Haynes to play the pure intercept and peel of role.
12 months ago, Sam Docherty was one of the hottest names across fantasy football. After 5 rounds, he was averaging 121 in SuperCoach. With news of an injury setback to Nic Newman and Zac Williams playing more of a MID/FWD role, ‘Doc’ looks primed to dominate possession across half-back again.
Every season after I conclude the 50 Most Relevant, we love to look back at some of the unlucky players to miss the countdown. Here are 10 Players Who Missed The 50 Most Relevant
12 months ago, Sam Docherty was one of the hottest names across fantasy football. After 5 rounds, he was averaging 121 in SuperCoach an adjusted 117 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. His remaining 11 games got nowhere near this level, but it’s a reminder of his high scoring capacity. Was that due to role? The Carlton game style? Or just a natural regression as his body fatigued under a full season of condensed footy? Perhaps it’s a combination of a few of those elements.
With Adam Saad’s addition and the injury returning Nic Newman, we could see less opposition attention and great freedom of role to allow the Blues co-captain to flourish once again for 2021. If the planets align, he’s a genuine top 3 candidate in our defensive line.
Andrew Gaff
He’s more an AFLFantasy & DreamTeam selection than SuperCoach, but Andrew Gaff is one of the safest premiums going round. He regularly plays 20+ games every season and in DT/AF has been averaging 110 consistently.
The knock on him is probably his lack of ceiling, making him not a reliable captain option. But with that said, Gaff will thrive in return to full length matches.
Coming off a career high SuperCoach average of 109 and an adjusted equivalent of 114 in AFLFantasy, Taylor Adams is no scoring slouch. But we’ve known that for seasons. Back in 2017, he averaged 114 in AFLFantasy and 107 in SuperCoach. So even without the departure of Adam Treloar, ‘TayTay’ has shown he can score
The issue has always been around his ability to play 20+ games. If he can do that again, he’ll be back up towards the top scoring midfielders in 2021.
Jaidyn Stephenson
The highly talented junior fell out of favour at Collingwood last year. And when Jaidyn Stephenson had the opportunity to bail out, he took it and headed straight to Arden Street.
In Collingwood’s Grand Final season of 2019, he averaged 80 across the formats. Not bad for a player who was predominantly used inside forward 50.
At North, the club has been vocal about their desire to play him through the midfield. Generally, when we get a forward eligible option, who’s playing in the midfield, that often turns into a good thing.
Maybe it’s a story of 12 months too early for Isaac Cumming being a key part of our fantasy football sides. The GWS Giants defensive unit has undergone an offseason overhaul, with Heath Shaw, Aiden Corr and Zac Williams departing the club. This opens up plenty of opportunities for the talented youngster.
Given the genuine question marks around cash cows, spending up that bit extra for his likely job security isn’t the worst idea if he shows scoring promise in the AAMI community series.
In a season where rookie security is looking even thinner than ever, North Melbourne’s Will Phillips might be worth paying the cash for. In 2019, Phillips averaged 22.1 disposals across his 10 NAB League matches and showed his class in the contest. Don’t expect Matt Rowellor Sam Walsh style fantasy scores, but he should be handy regardless.
Stephen Coniglio
Like Sam Docherty listed higher, Stephen Coniglio was one of the most popular starting squad options for 2020. However, he delivered a poor season by his lofty standards, including seeing the club drop him.
History suggests that ‘Cogs’ is a regular 105-110 midfielder across all the formats. And as the skipper for the club for his second season, he’s no doubt striving to get himself and his Giants back into the league’s top echelon.
Sometimes our recency bias makes us not consider the obvious jet standing right in front of us. Perhaps ‘Cogs’ will be the one that got away from fantasy coaches in 2021 who were too proud to consider him.
The injury news of Rowan Marshall and Braydon Preuss has left fantasy coaches scrambling for a second ruck. For those not able to afford a ‘set and forget’ strategy, then ‘Nank’ is one of the better options.
The knee injury to Ivan Soldo means the Tigers will likely stay him as a sole ruck for the season, with various talls playing a supporting role. In 2017 & 2018, when the Tigers adopted this strategy, Toby averaged 86 & 89 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 88 & 98 in SuperCoach.
Last year in the semi, preliminary and Grand Final, he had a three game average of 134 in SuperCoach and 79 (98 adjusted) in AFLFantasy. If he starts the season like that, it’ll be an inspired selection.
In the opening three games of the year, the Tigers play Carlton (Pittonet /De Koning), Hawthorn (Ceglar/McEvoy) and Sydney (Sinclair/Hickey). It’s hardly a daunting three weeks.
Nakia Cockatoo
Pretty simple. He’s cheap, he’s got DPP and is currently injury free. If he’s named round one, he’ll be the most popular rookie priced player in starting squads.
The departure of Adam Treloar has opened up some midfield minutes in the Collingwood side. Jordan De Goey has shown that when he’s allowed to attend centre bounces and play through the midfield that he’s one of the most explosive and dominant options in the game. A lack of endurance and also Collingwood’s need for goals have kept him often playing forward
All track watchers have spoken about his dominant preseason, and the club has spoken publicly about giving him a greater midfield presence. If he can get over his slight preseason injury setback, then he could be 2021’s version of Christian Petracca.
Just what you need right, heading into the final round of the year another injury! For owners in AFLFantasy, SuperCoach & AFLDreamTeam we have another ‘forced’ move in our sides that we need to make. The question we must answer now is, what should I do with Sam Docherty?
Over the previous round, we saw that many coaches have viable bench coverage. Murphy’s law will probably mean that when we do need them on the field they’ll fail, but for coaches with 0 trades left, or other pressing issues he’s not an essential trade. Popular defender pair in Lachlan Sholl and Trent Rivers both had career-best games last week, but crucially have their matchups prior to Carlton. This means by holding back the trade, you get a look at their potential scoring. Should they pop another solid score, you might be able to dodge the trade. After all, Doc’s recent form hasn’t been flash hot. Flynn Perez is more unique coverage selection, but with North being involved in the opening game of the round it’s well worth a shot.
If either of these options fail (or you just don’t have any) then a trade is the best way to go.
Running Hot
The #1 form defender is Jack Crisp by a clear seven points per game. His past three scores of 125, 134 and 138 are number that are genuinely captaincy considerations. It’s around $80,000 up from Sam Docherty but coaches that have the cash to splash, then his current form is hard to fault. My only slight concern around him is his opponent given how hard Port have been to score against. One thing is for certain, with the likes of Jordan De Goey and Adam Treloar back into the side, Collingwood are looking to build momentum into the finals.
It’s crazy to think that just 13% of SuperCoach players are enjoying the season of Luke Ryan. In his past twelve matches he’s scored a ton in an immense eleven matches including a 142 and 162. A matchup against the Bulldogs isn’t a simple one, but given his current form and that his most recent outing against the club where he scored a 95 I think he looks solid again.
It was a ying and yang score for GWS defenders pair Zac Williams and Nick Haynes. The latter had a season low 46 after his previous four rounds he scored 94 or higher. While for Zac his 101 was his highest score since round 12. Both have huge ceiling about them.
If i’m a Melbourne fan, in 2020 i’m not hating the trade to secure Steven May as much as I might’ve 12 months ago. Just under $500k, just 2% of coaches are enjoying the season of arguably the All Australian Full back. Since round five he’s only twice dipped his scoring beneath 90 and a match against the disappointing Bombers could just see him record his third 120+ score of the past month.
Going Unique
If the ruck situation of Geelong and Sydney remains in the same state of last round, then Mark Blicavs is an option. Last week he attended the third most centre bounces of all Cats and if Sydney doesn’t play Callum Sinclair then he could roam freely. Currently he’s in 2% of teams and he’s had just one scored under 100 in the past five games and only one score sub 90 since round eight.
If we learnt anything from last round, it’s the teams love to send off the retiring stars with a bag full of SuperCoach points. The Crows looked to get the ball into the hands of Bryce Gibbs in every possible situation. He returned a score of 106, and you have to go back to round 20 in 2018 for the last time prior he scored a SuperCoach 100. At $392,000, in just 1% of teams and with scores of 80, 82, 103 & 93 in the last month it isn’t the wackiest of ideas to trade in the departing Kade Simpson.
With no Jeremy McGovern, the Eagles have turned to Tom Barrass and he hasn’t let anyone down over the past three weeks. A three round of average of 122 has him ranked third by average and is higher than the popular names of Tom Stewart and Rory Laird. A scoring range of 110-144 in the past three is elite and up against the Kangaroos this week it’s a match that less than 1,100 coaches are currently getting. Uber unique, love it!
Running Hot
Jack Crisp is flying at the moment. Scores of 116, 121, 75 & 88 have him as the #1 scoring defender on form in AFLFantasy. Currently, 26% of coaches own him and if I was in a head to head matchup against someone who owned Crisp I’d be very nervous. Especially with Collingwood being involved in the final game of the year. As good as he has been, I’m nervous of his matchup against Port Adelaide. A month ago the power gave up a 120 to Jake Lloyd and 88 for Jordan Dawson. However, in the past fortnight, no defender has been able to crack the 70+ marker and that includes big scoring premiums like Luke McDonald and Jordan Ridley. At $735,000 you need a bankable 80+ score to make it worth the selection, otherwise, the $150K you drop on the upgrade will be wasted.
I like the matchup for Tom Stewart this week against Sydney. Last weekend Daniel Rich (101) and Ryan Lester (75) had the ball on a string. The week prior when the Swans played Carlton, it was Sam Petrevski-Seton (90), Jacob Weitering (89) and even Kade Simpson (72) who all got plenty of it. If the Cats get their game style going with high ball retention, then Tom is set for a monster.
Coaches might be tempted to chase the score of Caleb Daniel, but I won’t be going there. A good fortnight (85 & 128) no doubt, But given they are two of his top three scores of the year I’m not convinced, especially against the improved Fremantle Dockers.
Rory Laird and Jake Lloyd are the only other ‘pricey’ candidates to trade Docherty too. However, as good as they are, it’s a very defensive trade. Meaning, I’d only advocate for it if you believe you’ve already got the points of difference in your side. You won’t ‘make up ground’ picking up either of these two regardless of how good they’ve been.
Going Unique
If you’ve played AFLFantasy for years or a daily fantasy-style game, then you’ll know the opposition defenders against Collingwood always do well. This week Port Adelaide get their turn and with Darcy Byrne-Jones In just 2.3% of teams ‘DBJ’ could be perfect for you. The last time he played the Pies he scored 96, and he’s coming off an 83 against the Bombers. Throw in the fact that they play the final game of the round and he looms a potential match-winner.
I spoke about Kade Simpson as a SuperCoach option, and I think in AFLFantasy he could be too. However, he’s not as unique as you might have felt as he’s currently in 8% of teams. That said, if the Blues plan to host a Gibbs style footy party, then he’s set for a monster.
Similarly, Mark Blicavs isn’t the worst trade target, but only on the provision that neither teammate Rhys Stanley or Sydney’s Callum Sinclair are named.
The Blues
took on the Lions in a scrappy affair at Ikon Park with both sides keen to snag
a win after falling short last time out. It was a tale of two halves with
Carlton looking exceptional for most of the first half before running out of
steam and being completely overrun by Brisbane who went on to post a handsome
45 point win. It was a modest game fantasy wise with Cripps the only player on
the ground to have more than 25 disposals. But there’s still plenty to unpack
as we start finalising our squads for round 1.
Patrick
Cripps: Started on
fire with 11 touches in the first quarter and was in the thick of it throughout
but didn’t look his usual dynamic self. To really elevate himself in the
fantasy world (he’s already done it in Supercoach), he needs to straighten up
his kick to handball ratio. This game was a great example of this as he had 30
touches on the night but only 9 kicks. He has another gear to step into and
we’ll see that Thursday night in a couple of weeks against the Tigers.
Sam
Docherty: What did
we need to see? Looks fit, tick. Taking kick ins, tick. Plenty of game time
(81%), tick. Embracing his love of playing kick to kick, tick. I was having
2017 flashbacks at times in that first half when Docherty was +6’ing his way
all over the back half. Finished with 21 touches and 10 marks and is the
biggest lock in the game. Don’t over think it, pick him!
Ed
Curnow: Has been a gutsy
soldier for the Blues for years now and thankfully his days as a forward look
certain to be over under Teague. Was solid early and spent parts of the night
running with Neale. Just 20 disposals but 7 marks and a goal make his fantasy
scores look better. One for Drafts.
Sam
Walsh: I honestly
cannot believe this guy is only 19 years old, the way he moves out there and
how hard he works, you would swear he’s a seasoned veteran. Started hot with 9
touches in the first quarter but went very cold in the second. Finished with
the second most touches on the field with 25 and everything he did looked good.
Maybe won’t become elite in the fantasy world this season but we’re going to
love selecting him over the next 10 years.
Paddy
Dow: Another Carlton
kid that looks excellent whenever he goes near it. He had modest numbers
tonight and is still a mile off fantasy relevance, but he has a huge future.
Jack
Martin: A fantastic
acquisition for the Blues with his class and precision disposal. He had a great
time roaming up and down the flanks all night recording 23 touches with 9 marks
from just 68% game time. Nice unique for the forward line but there’s possibly
better value on offer.
Jack
Newnes: Potentially
another handy pick up for the Blues as he will bring some experience after 8
years at St.Kilda. He tried hard in this game and was involved throughout with
20 touches but there were a lot of bad ones. He also didn’t lay a tackle and
gave away 3 free kicks. I think his disposal was so poor that we won’t see him
in the seniors in round 1.
Marc
Murphy: Did his part
with 5 kicks and 10 handballs from 60% game time. Even though he finished last
season with a bang, I’m expecting his numbers to decline as Carlton continue to
give more responsibility to the kids.
Nic Newman: I didn’t notice him a great deal, but his numbers weren’t terrible with 19 disposals and 8 marks. I didn’t think Docherty’s return would impact him too greatly as they have a shared love of playing kick to kick but I’m not so sure now. He was quiet in Marsh 1 too.
Charlie
Cameron: Touted as
having the potential to become the greatest small forward of all time by
someone who would know, Eddie Betts, Cameron looks like picking up right where
he left off in his breakout season last year. This was a seriously good
performance with a stat line to back it up, 21 touches, 7 marks, 8 tackles and
5 goals. Despite this, the reality is he is a small forward and they scarcely
find themselves in our fantasy squads. Enjoy watching him this year but don’t
pick him.
Dayne
Zorko: A mature
performance from the captain. He was well held for most of the first half but
slowly got himself into the game. He didn’t have huge numbers with 23 disposals,
but they were quality and with his 6 tackles and 2 goals, he was one of the
most prolific players in the game and a huge catalyst for the turnaround on the
scoreboard.
Lachie
Neale: A far cry
from his 47 disposal beast mode game in Marsh 1 but was still important at
times. He had just the 23 touches this time as he dealt with some mild tagging
throughout the night and even spent a little bit of time deep forward. I
wouldn’t stress if you’re an owner though as I think Brisbane were just
experimenting with ways for him to deal with the expected tags he will cop this
year. He ain’t no Dusty or Fyfe though and he’ll be playing pure mid in the
regular season.
Jarrod
Berry: Did some
really nice things and looks to improve again in his 4th season. He
looked really strong over the ball and used his big body well to take some
great marks around the ground. He kicked a couple of goals to help cap a fine
performance.
Hugh
McCluggage: Like
Berry, looks set to improve again in what is also his 4th season. He
was the Lions best player in the first half and arguably kept them in the game
playing wing and around the ball. Had 22 touches and a goal in 74% game time
but his impact was greater than the numbers suggest.
Alex
Witherden: On the
watch list as a potential break out after a surprisingly poor 2019.
Unfortunately, this game and his Marsh series have done nothing to tempt me and
I don’t think you should be tempted either. He was largely unsighted taking
just 2 marks for the game (70% game time) and looked frustrated as teammates
constantly over looked him, denying him any easy touches in the process.
Perhaps his first two seasons were merely a tease. It’s just a shame, that’s
all.
Brandon
Starcevich: There
were hardly any rookies of interest in this game but Starcevich looked
excellent. He only had 11 touches but everything he did was so clean that he must
be a chance for round 1. Like McCluggage, he was important for the Lions early
in the game against the tide. With Brisbane’s list looking very healthy from an
injury perspective, there’s a tight squeeze for spots but Starcevich may have
done enough to get a spot.
Deven
Robertson: Not sure
he gets a gig in round 1 but he looked good when he got his chance with 11
touches and 5 tackles from 63% game time.
Grant
Birchall: The wily
veteran should have a similarly strong impact at the Lions as Luke Hodge did
and is at an extremely tantalising price. He had 15 touches and kicked a
trademark raking long goal, but I don’t think we can trust his body enough for
our fantasy sides this year.
Cam
Rayner: There’s been
murmurings about Rayner bulking up and potentially breaking out this year. It’s
a no from me. The kid just isn’t there yet.
An interesting fantasy game this one – there were plenty of watchlist
players running around for their first formal match practise of 2020. To start
with however, here’s a list to keep in mind of important players who didn’t
play:
Fremantle: Fyfe, Hill, Mundy, Walters, Pearce, Wilson, Hayden Young
So when reviewing players, their role, their performance & the match
just keep the above in mind.
Rory Lobb
Lobb needs mentioning because he had such a big game, however there are some important things to note. The first is that Darcy didn’t play the second half due to a precautionary injury resting (per coach afterwards he should be fine) & the second is that Kreuzer didn’t play the second half either (Kreuze looked good in the first half too) so Lobb basically played ruck against Pittonet for half a game.
Having said that, he looked much better than Darcy in the first half anyway. He was more mobile, took more marks, looked more dangerous – it wouldn’t surprise if Freo again play Lobb as their main ruck and leave Darcy in the WAFL at times as happened last year. It makes for an interesting dynamic for draft leagues.
Andrew Brayshaw
Brayshaw played midfield and he got a lot of it when he was on. An
excellent sign for those keen on him as a breakout ‘forward’ this year. Keep in
mind the above players who didn’t play though so it’s hard to read anything
definitive into his role & likely scoring just based on this game. He does
look to be on the up though.
Blake Acres
Per Brayshaw above, had the midfield role we were hoping for (he’s another ‘forward’ this year) however, again, look at the list of outs above. We’ll want to see this role and output again in their 2nd match when Fyfe, Walters, Mundy etc are back.
Please read our full preseason take on him from the 50 Most Relevant Series here.
Connor Blakely
It’s like a record on repeat here – per Brayshaw & Acres above, Blakely certainly played a lot around the ball and through the midfield. Once again though, we need to see who stays in there when everyone’s playing. I will also note that his disposal wasn’t quite as clean as the other two, although he’s certainly a big lad in there and knows how to find it.
Please read our full preseason take on him from the 50 Most Relevant Series here.
Adam Cerra
Cerra certainly played a good chunk of the game in midfield and looked
very solid. He was also around half-back at times. A clean ball user who was
going at a high disposal efficiency throughout, he’s someone they’ll want to
give the ball to as well. Role will be important when we get to the next praccy
match again though.
Lachie Schultz
Probably too awkwardly priced to really be of note, it was still a
really good game from the young forward. His disposal and decision making
weren’t always clean but he got involved and threw himself into contests. Four
goals straight was also an excellent return.
Caleb Serong
Looked really good, clean and promising. Probably too much in the
midfield depth chart ahead of him to be worth his price tag this year but one
for the future certainly.
Sam Walsh
Just the lazy 28 touches for Walsh in this game – obviously going to
have the 2nd year Blues… But seriously, he looked as good as ever in
this game. Too high a price to really be salary cap relevant this year but he
will be in future years.
Sam Docherty
Let’s be honest, this is the Carlton player that most fantasy footy players wanted to see in this game. Given his discounted pricing & his previous averages, fitness & form were things that needed ticking off. Well, he’s certainly back to fitness – playing pretty much the whole game (albeit he suggested post-game that he did cramp late).
As for form? He did seem rusty early however grew into the match as it went on and really started to get some of those mark-kick combos in defense and up onto the wing. An excellent first up game for him all things considered.
Please read our full preseason take on him from the 50 Most Relevant Series here.
Mark Pittonet
Had a decent game but only played the 2nd half and that up
against Lobb & High Dixon in the ruck. Kreuzer looked really good in the
first half so doubtful that Pittonet plays unless Kreuzer gets injured (which,
let’s be honest, does happen from time to time). A cheap ruck option for us but
unless he’s named Round 1 it seems a premium price too far at this stage.
Injuries have robbed the Blues and fantasy coaches of seeing one of the best halfbacks in the game. With Sam Docherty back, at his price, he is arguably one of the most straightforward selections for fantasy coaches this year.
PLAYER PROFILE
Name: Sam Docherty Age: 26 Club: Carlton Position: Defender
It’s been a tough two seasons for Sam Docherty, his teammates, Blues supporters and fantasy coaches in general. Thankfully, it looks like in 2020 the Carlton co-captain is ready to play at the elite level.
When fit ‘Doc’ is an elite defender in the game, who has the rare ability to cut teams apart with his damaging ball use by foot, but also is a difficult one on one matchup for forwards.
Docherty’s presence both as a defender and leader will be crucial for the development of the entire Carlton playing group let alone for a still young defensive core six. So how well is Doc travelling? Defensive coach Dale Amos had this to say on just how well he is going.
“He’s in fantastic shape… he’s training as well as anyone, and he’s back in full training,”
“We’re excited about what he’s going to produce over the coming weeks.”
“His growth has come from not being able to play: his leadership has grown because he hasn’t been able to play.”
Fantasy coaches remember with great fondness 2017 season of Sam Docherty. That year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 117, it featured 16 scores of 100 or more, with ten of them above 120. All year he had just the two scores below 90. In SuperCoach he averaged 115, that year consisted of 17 tons, ten over 120 and had only three scores below 90.
He’s far from a one-season wonder. While 2017 was scores in the territory of elite midfielders the season earlier he was still the best backmen going around. In 2016 he averaged 101, had 12 tons and four of these were over 120. While the ceiling wasn’t as high, the healthy scoring basement was on display with only two scores beneath 80.
The 2016 season was even stronger in SuperCoach as he finished the season averaging 108.5. Across the season he posted 16 tons, six of them were over 120, and he failed to score over 80 in just three games.
The big selling point for Docherty coming off the back of his injuries isn’t just around the potential scoring. It’s the potential value that comes with it. He doesn’t have to reach the 2016-2017 scores to be an excellent selection.
In AFLFantasy he’s priced as a mid-range 70’s average, while in SuperCoach and DreamTeam it’s the low 80’s. This means that at a worst-case scenario of an 85 average he’s still delivering value for investment.
There is so much upside around the possibilities of what we could get with Sam Docherty. And sometimes as a fantasy coach, we can get caught in the hype of a player and fail to do a proper analysis. However, that’s not like the Coaches Panel to get all preseason hype on someone. Let’s crunch the facts and data on the selection.
Whenever a player comes back from a severe injury like an ACL, we often see some scoring regression over the first twelve months. Whether it be a midfielder like Tom Liberatore a key forward in Taylor Walker or running defender in Brodie Smith, history gives us enough data to suggest the majority of players come back and score below what they did pre-injury. Additionally ‘Doc’ isn’t coming off the one, but rather two ACL injuries. While everyone hopes he does get back to his best as quickly as possible, expectations do need to be tempered.
Carlton is also a very different team with new players and a vastly differing game style. Back in 2016 & 2017, the Baby Blues were starting yet another rebuild. Rather than getting blown off the back week in and week out Brendan Bolton devised a game style to help protect them. It was a highly defensive style of play. Only twice in those two seasons did the Blues kick over 100 points in-game. This slow, methodical ball movement often centred around the experience in the back half of Sam Docherty.
Carlton no longer player under that coach, or it’s game style. What we saw under David Teague and anticipate he will allow in 2020 is a high paced, open game plan where players are encouraged to move the ball with speed into forward 50. Will this be a factor in curtailing some of Docherty’s scores? Maybe, maybe not.
The Blues backline the majority of the team has turned over in the past few seasons. In the backline, during 2016-2017 it was only Kade Simpson along with Doc that could be trusted to the ball well rebounding out of the defensive half. Now, they are stacked for options. In addition to these two, they have recruited Nic Newman and Sam Petrevski-Seton, both of which are reliable distributors of the ball by foot. Will one be used in a different role or higher up the ground? Possibly. But again, the Carlton team is structured differently to the prime time years of Docherty.
Right now, Sam Docherty is the most highly selected ‘top line’ defensive premium. In some coaches eyes, that makes him the perfect player to take on. Long time supporters of the Coaches Panel will know we often encourage and advocate for being brave, bold and calculated with your decisions. Is there a risk of going against him? Your paying for him at the value of around an 80- average with the potential of a 10-20 point increase. Additionally, there could be a reward if you choose to take him on, and he only goes 85-90, and with such high ownership, it would be a substantial reward that sets you away from the pack.
Only hindsight will guide you into what was the right call, but like with any selection, you make this preseason sure to count the cost, way up the risks and rewards and then make this best and most informed decision you can.
Currently, Sam Docherty is locked away for me in all forms of the game. The move to start him isn’t aggressive at all, but if he gets through the preseason games, it’s going to be hard to say no. Additionally, if Carlton shows the desire to allow him to be the general both as a leader and accumulator, then he’s arguably the value selection of the year.
DRAFT DECISION
He’s got the potential to be not just your D1, but the #1 defender across all lines. However, you shouldn’t use an opening few rounds selections on him. He’s the perfect no-risk D2 selection, and a selection from the fifth round or beyond is certainly acceptable.
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