50 Most Relevant Archives - Page 18 of 32

#9 Most Relevant | Matt Crouch

Read Time:5 Minute, 36 Second

Matt Crouch provided owners with a rollercoaster season. He went from being dropped by the club to being one of the top performing fantasy players in the game. What does 2021 hold for the midfield star?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Matt Crouch
Age: 25
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
125 Vs GWS Giants (AFLFantasy)
162 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
151 Vs West Coast | AFLFantasy (2019)
162 Vs Hawthorn | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
88.3 (AFLFantasy) | 110 (Adjusted Average)
110.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $594,700
AFLFantasy Price: $844,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $816,000

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

If you owned Matt Crouch over the entire of the season it felt like a soap opera drama. There were ups, downs and even a week he didn’t play after being dropped in round four. Despite this, he ended the year as one of the most dominant fantasy midfielders across all formats.

He ended 2020 averaging 26 possessions, almost three marks and a career high 4.6 tackles per game. Impressive given the decreased length of quarters. Across the league per game he ranked 1st for handballs, 5th for disposals, 6th for uncontested possessions and 7th for effective disposals.

Before getting dropped in round four, Crouch was averaging 64.3 (80 adjusted) in AFLFantasy and had a top score of 72. When he returned in round five he scored 4 tons, 4 additional scores over 90, 2 over 80 and had the lowest score of 75. In these final 13 matches, he averaged 93.9 (adjusted 117) in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam

By seasons end Matt averaged 88.3 (adjusted 110) ranked 19th for total points scored (remember that’s with him missing a game) and ranked 14th for averages. That’s higher than Andrew Gaff, Adam Treloar and Christian Petracca.

In SuperCoach over the first three weeks, he was averaging 88. However, over the final 13 games, he averaged 115 including 10 tons, five of them over 120 including a career high 162. After the home and away season he ended the year averaging 110 and having just two scores under 90 all year.

It wasn’t just his fantasy output that took a dramatic turn, but it was also his workrate off the ball and defensive efforts. In his first 102 games of AFL only in 2 matches, he returned a tackle count of 10 tackles or more. However, in two of his final five matches this year, he handed out a 12 in one game and 14 tackles in another. Easily the two highest of his career.

The season earlier in 2019 Matt averaged 106 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. It included 13 tons, five of them over 120 and two over 150. Added to this he had only 2 scores below 89 all season. While in SuperCoach he averaged 104, scored 10 tons including three over 130. Across his 19 games played he had just 3 matches that he failed to score 90 or higher.

Over the past four seasons, Matt Crouch has proven he is a reliable midfield premium who boasts a low scoring floor and an ever-increasing ceiling.

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MY TAKE

The big question for prospective owners of Matt Crouch is this? Was it ‘just another’ hot streak? Or is it a sign of things to come? Multiple times over the past four seasons Crouch has gone on ‘hot stretches’ of games where he’s averaged well north of 110 AFLFantasty and 120 SuperCoach. What’s different about the 2020 run?

I’d suggest that the most dynamic change was around his tackle count and defensive efforts. His 2017-2019 possession count shows that his reality in full games he averages 32-33 possessions. If he maintains that with a full year + holds that increased tackle count, this becomes not only the area of scoring growth but the way he becomes a genuine top tier fantasy player.

With his brother Brad Crouch departing for St Kilda, it does effect the clubs midfield structure, but not Matt’s role. He’s as pure a midfielder in the game as you can get. So unlike some other midfield premiums we’ve discussed in this series he has zero role concerns.

During the offseason Matt Crouch had some minor surgery done, but the good news is he has resumed training. He underwent arthroscopic surgery on his hip in the off-season. While I’m not a doctor, it’s on the lower end of things to be worried about. The club believes he’ll be cherry ripe for the AAMI Community series match.

What’s the downside of selecting Matt? Honestly, not much. The downside is he holds as a 105 style scorer who doesn’t offer you enough to be a genuine captaincy candidate. The upside? Is he pushes himself into the top 5 AFLFantasy and top 10 SuperCoach players in the game? Whether he averaged over 115 or held at 105, neither would surprise me.

Probably the biggest downside for Crouch as an option is he’s apart of the dreaded round 14 bye. With plenty of stars on all lines, especially the rucks, it looms as a potentially difficult week to navigate. It’s why, for some, they might choose to target another player with a similar range of outcomes that helps their structure more. That said, I’m starting him in DreamTeam and will keep a close eye on him across all other formats.

DRAFT DECISION

In every mock draft I’ve either done or seen on The Draft Doctors Mock Draft Simulator, I see minimal midfielders get picked in the opening round. Matt Crouch is an M1 selection, but depending on how heavy the other lines coaches go, it will determine which round he goes. It’ll like range between an early second round or very late second round pick in AFLFantasy scoring formats. While for SuperCoach, I see a world where he can drift out into the third round. Not much beyond that, though.

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#10 Most Relevant | Josh Kelly

Read Time:6 Minute, 20 Second

Not many have the proven scoring history that can match it with Josh Kelly. So why is his ownership numbers so low? It’s for one simple reason.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Josh Kelly
Age: 25
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
119 Vs Richmond (AFLFantasy)
195 Vs Richmond (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
166 Vs Gold Coast | AFLFantasy (2018)
205 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2018)

2020 Average:
84.7 (AFLFantasy) | 105.87 (Adjusted Average)
114.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $615,600
AFLFantasy Price: $809,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $782,900

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Josh Kelly is the complete package. A strong inside the contest, damaging on the outside. Whether it’s dancing around players at stoppages or using his silky skills on the outside to finish the game off, he is one of the modern-day greats in the AFL.

With the shortened quarters he still averaged 22 possessions, going 70% disposal efficiency. He also averaged 5 score involvements, 4 tackles, 4 clerances, 4 inside ’50s and 3 marks per game.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he averaged 84.7 (adjusted 105) including 4 scores of 100+, 3 additional scores between 90-99 and another score over 80.

Kelly’s SuperCoach average of 114.5 consisted of 10 tons, 5 of them over 120 including that 195 against Richmond. On top of this high ceiling, is a strong scoring floor with just one score under 80 all year.

His 2019 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged of 115.9. It was made up of 12 scores of 100 or more, 7 of them were over 120, and between round 9-15, his lowest score was 120. Added on top of this only twice last year did he fail to reach triple figures.

His SuperCoach numbers were very similar. A seasonal average of 117 consisted of 11 tons, with six of them 120 or higher. His lowest score was 82, and he failed to register the ton in only three games.

Kelly’s scoring consistency is elite over the previous four seasons. On SuperCoach he’s averaged 113+ for SuperCoach each year while averaging between 105-115 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.

Games played in the past 4 seasons he’s returned 43 tons in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam which is a hundred in 67% of games. Likewise in SuperCoach, he’s scored 44 tons and returning a hundred plus score in 68% of games

Over the preseason, GWS and Josh have emphasised the strength and conditioning of his body. If the Giants are to pivot back into the top 8 this season, lots will depend on the output of their star players like Josh. If you’ve been following the preseason news, you’ll be familiar with the story that he’s flying in the preseason. So much so he won the 2km time trials for the club.

The concern isn’t around his scoring potential. The query is around games played. While those concerns are valid (and we’ll talk about them soon), he is in the rare territory of midfield premiums that has shown multiple years averaging well over 110 in the past three seasons.

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MY TAKE

Nobody would question that Josh Kelly is one of the elite midfielders in the AFL. Nor would anyone challenge if he’s a genuine uber premium in SuperCoach or AFLFantasy. What makes people uncertain about him is the fact that only twice in his six AFL seasons has he played 20 twenty games or more.

Those that do pick Kelly need to factor in based on the previous history the high likelihood that he will not play 22 games. The past gives us an understanding that he and the club are yet to get his body cherry ripe. The thing is that history doesn’t always repeat itself with these ‘injury-prone’ players.

Before 2019, Brad Crouch had struggled to play a full season and yet was able to for the Crows and the fantasy coaches who selected him. Before the 2018 season, Devon Smith had never played a full season but didn’t miss a game in 2018. The same thing happened to Taylor Adams in 2017, after never played more than 18 games in a year he played all 22 that year.

History shows, 22 games could be unlikely it’s far from a guarantee. We’ve seen plenty of examples of players overcoming history, learning how to manage themselves to play out a full season.

If you’re considering Josh Kelly, you need to view him as a starting squad player or ignore him for the 2021 season. Players with a notoriously poor history must be starting squad targets. That way you maximise the available games played to be in your fantasy side.

Can you target him as an upgrade target even with injury concerns? Of course, you can, but history suggests the likelihood of him missing a game only increases with each game played.

Now it’s a different story if his injury history isn’t the reason you pass on him in your starting squad. Perhaps you’re chasing more ‘value’ premiums. Or you too heavy with round 12 bye premiums. The point being, if you’re worried about injuries occurring in the season, it’s either a pass completely or a starting squad option.

He’s too good of a player not to be the centrepiece of their midfield. He is equally as damaging when on the inside or outside of the contest. Unlike many other premiums midfielders discussed in the 50 most relevant, Josh has no role concerns.

A players ownership percentage should never be the only factor for selecting a player. Still, currently, across formats, Kelly is criminally low given what his potential is if you’ve found yourself split between him and another premium midfielder it could be the determining factor in picking him.

Right now in SuperCoach, he’s in 7% of teams, 8% of DreamTeam’s and 3% in AFLFantasy. I’m helping hold that percentage across all three formats as I’m starting him in all versions of the game.

Why so unique given the scoring upside? Simple. He’s left many coaches wary of selecting him after being burned by injuries over previous seasons. Even though It’s happened to me before, I’m choosing to bank in his scoring output for as many games as possible. That might be 5-6 weeks or potentially even 22 rounds.

DRAFT DECISION

In every mock draft I’ve either done or seen on The Draft Doctors Mock Draft Simulator, I see minimal midfielders get picked in the opening round. Josh Kelly is an M1 selection, but depending on how heavy the other lines coaches go, it will determine which round he goes. Personally, I think he’s a perfect second round pick, who might even slide in the odd draft into the third round.

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#11 Most Relevant | Brodie Grundy

Read Time:7 Minute, 3 Second

For years Brodie Grundy has been our first picked player. However, after a slow finish to the season, it has fantasy coaches wondering. Is he a value for money guy, or will others surpass him as a top 2 ruck?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Brodie Grundy
Age: 26
Club: Collingwood Magpies
Position: Ruck

2020 Highest Score:
119 Vs Geelong (AFLFantasy)
179 Vs Western Bulldogs (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
181 Vs GWS Giants | AFLFantasy (2019)
179 Vs Western Bulldogs | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
90.9 (AFLFantasy) | 113.6 (Adjusted Average)
120.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $648,200
AFLFantasy Price: $867,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $839,700

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2020 started just as the two previous seasons had ended for Brodie Grundy. A round one score of 179 in SuperCoach and 114 (142 adjusted) in AFLFantasy had owners delighted to start his year. Even with the shorter quarters he still led the league for hitouts (32 avg) and ranked 20th for total stoppage clearances.

Last year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he ended the year averaging 90.9 (adjusted average 113). His season consisted of 5 tons, 6 between 90-99, + an 82. Across the competition, he ranked 5th for total points and 10th for averages.

Over in SuperCoach he averaged 120 for the year and ranked 6th for toral points and averages overall. His season consisted of 15 tons, 8 over 120, a huge 5 over 140 and just one score under 85.

In AFLFantasy for 2019 it consisted of 17 tons, 11 of them were converted into 120+ scores while almost half of all tons (8) were 140 or above. In addition to scoring a ton in 77% of the time last year, he dipped beneath 90 in just three matches on his way to averaging 122 for the season. For the first time in his career, he was the top-scoring AFLFantasy player.

Grundy was even more dominant in SuperCoach! His seasonal average of 130 was built around 18 scores over one hundred and an insane 16 of these he turned into scores north of 120. Additionally, eight of his tons were over 140. Along with scoring a ton in 81% of games last year, he had only three games all year that he didn’t score above 90. For the first time in his career, he was the top-scoring SuperCoach player.

With that many scores over 120, let alone the 140+ scores Brodie Grundy is a good captaincy option every week. If you look at some of the most popular selections this year, you can easily see that Grundy towers above them in scores north of 120 from last year.

2019 wasn’t just a fluke either, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam during 2018 he posted 19 tons, 13 of which were over 120 and a massive five over 150. His numbers for SuperCoach were even stronger with 19 tons, 12 of them over 120, seven above 150 and his lowest score of the year was 95.

In the past 3 seasons, Brodie Grundy hasn’t missed a match, playing every single one of the 61 games available. To go with that durability is a freakish conversation of tons per games played. In SuperCoach he’s scored 52 tons since 2018, returning a 100 in 85% of games played. While for AFLFantasy, he’s scored 48 tons (including adjusted scoring) to be running at 78% conversion. If you want to look at pure 100+ scoring data in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, then he’s delivering a ton at 67% of games.

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MY TAKE

As the season went on Brodie Grundy’s scoring certainly slowed. For the first time in years, we saw his scoring start to come back to earth.
Over the first 11 rounds, he was averaging 93.3 (116 adjusted) in AFLFantasy and 123.6 in SuperCoach. In the final six rounds, he averaged 115 in SuperCoach and 78.6 (98 adjusted) for AFLFantasy. That’s a differential of -8 points per game in SuperCoach and -14.6 (18.3 adjusted) for AFLFantasty.

What was the cause of this scoring slide? Some believe it’s due to him being managed over the last few rounds due to the condensed fixtures to have him ripe for finals. Others think it’s more mental exhaustion due to the hubs life. Some have even offered an undeclared injury as a potential explanation.

Maybe it’s one, some or neither of these. One thing is certain. He averaged 12.2 (15 adjusted) points per game less in AFLFantasy and 25 points per game less in SuperCoach when he played alongside Darcy Cameron. Can Collingwood play these two as well as Mason Cox on the same side? It might be hard to build a strong enough case to suggest he gets back to his 2018-2019 averages if they do.

2020 showed us some massive changes in the fantasy footy landscapes. What makes part of the season hard to analyse is when players seemingly for little justification have either poor moments or career high numbers. Was hub life and the shorter games the causation or this? Or was it purely correlation? How you view, that will inform how you view him as a starting squad candidate.

For some, they see a top tier scorer finally priced at a small discount. While for others, they saw enough late last year to warrant some desire to get some 2021 data before committing to him.

This season gives coaches of all mindsets something to ponder when it comes to our ruck division. It’s been years since we’ve had a RUC/FWD who’s capable of delivering premium scores most weeks. With Rowan Marshall coaches can either start him at R2 and maximise some value forward options. Or they can a value selection like Braydon Preuss who is a super popular R2 candidate.

A case can now be made that it isn’t a fait accompli that Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn will be the top two rucks for another year. Adelaide Crows best & fairest winner Reilly O’Brien put together a stunning season. His emergence in the past 18 months has fantasy coaches finally seeing a legitimate contender to the crown across the formats.

Brodie comes up against his favourite scoring side; the Western Bulldogs in round one. In his last three against them, he’s scored 179, 174, 160 in SuperCoach with a 3 game average of 171. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s scored 114, 168 & 154 averaging 145. And no, that’s not including an adjusted average score from his 2020 game. That’s the points he’s actually made.

However, it might not be all roses for Grundy this time round. Tim English has noticeably baulked up. While the Dogs have also recruited Stefan Martin, it might be the monster start we’d hoped for if they decide to double team him.

After that, the Pies play Carlton, GWS, West Coast, Essendon, Gold Coast and North Melbourne. The good news in this run is no Max Gawn. You’ll have to wait for round 13 for that clash.

If you’re convinced Grundy will return to his 120+ scoring days, then be bold and select him. If you’ve got reservations, the good news for you is you have options of either another premium, a quality stepping stone or to use DPP. Using either of these will provide you with a valid starting squad strategy if going against him.

DRAFT DECISION

12 months ago, Brodie Grundy was the consensus #1 pick across all drafting formats. While he’s still in consideration for some, it’s no longer as clear cut. Grundy is still a top 5 pick and won’t last for those with a mid-late first round selection.

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#12 Most Relevant | Rory Laird

Read Time:6 Minute, 2 Second

A midseason role change made Rory Laird one of the most prolific scoring options from defence to close out 2020. The question is, does he maintain his midfield role in a rebuild Crows lineup?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Rory Laird
Age: 27
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: DEF/MID

2020 Highest Score:
139 Vs Collingwood (AFLFantasy)
185 Vs Collingwood (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
142 Vs GWS Giants | AFLFantasy (2017)
185 Vs Collingwood | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
79.9 (AFLFantasy) | 99.8 (Adjusted Average)
105.1 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $564,800
AFLFantasy Price: $763,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $738,100

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For the past few seasons, Rory Laird has been a staple of our fantasy footy premiums. Ever since 2016 when he brokeout and averaged 96 across the formats he’s been one of the most consistent, reliable and durable defensive premiums.

During round 9 Adelaide Crows coach Matthew Nicks decided to move the busy half back into the midfield to provide some energy and clearance winning especially at centre bounces. And if you played fantasy footy last year, you’ll know exactly how good his end of season run was.

Across the entire season in SuperCoach he averaged 105. It consisted of 9 tons, 5 of them over 120 including a personal best 185 against Collingwood. Of his 9 tons, 7 of them were after he’d had his role change. To go with this high scoring ceiling was a strong floor. He had only 3 scores below 86 all season and nothing under 72.

Laird ended the season as the third highest SuperCoach points scorer for all defenders and ranked fourth for averages, including Jeremy Howe who played only four games.

For AFLFantasy his seasonal average was 79.9 (99.8 adjusted) and scored 3 tons plus an additional 4 over 80. Don’t forget in this format due to the shorter quarters, ’80 was considered the 100′ of previous years. In contrast to all defenders, he ranked second for total points and third for averages. inSuperCoach, it does include four gamer, Jeremy Howe. So, in reality, you could move him up one more rank higher.

If you were to split his season scores into pre and post role change this is what it would look like.

While his positional change made season was the primary contributing factor to his scoring boost, he still was delivering premium numbers off half back in 2019. So even should the midfield time dry up (don’t worry we’ll talk about that) he’s shown that he can still be a top tier defender.

2019 season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he posted eight scores of 100 or more, but just the one above 120. Added to these tons were eight scores between 90-99 and only three below 80. With a seasonal average of 97 and the lowest score of 74, it’s easy to see why Laird was a popular premium in 2019.

In SuperCoach he averaged just shy of 97 across the year and barely disappointed owners with a terrible score. With a seasonal low of 73 and only two scores under 80, he was a picture of consistency. Laird also showcased some of his strong scoring with eight tons, three of them over 120 and an additional six scores between 90-99.

Rory Laird isn’t just a reliable performer with a solid scoring floor and consistent delivery of tons. He’s also durable. Since2017 he’s missed only two matches in four years. With a history like this on your side, you’d feel confident and comfortable starting ‘midfield Laird’ in your side.

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MY TAKE

You can build a fairly conniving argument for either narrative about the role Rory Laird plays in the Crows side in 2021. While both are valid, neither are actually about him. What it’s really about is how does Matthew Nicks want to play and structure up his side.

Does he (Nicks) expose the Crows midfield unit entirely to the rebuild and give large minutes to Chayce Jones, New McHenry, Harry Schoenberg, Luke Pedlar, Wayne Milera and Sam Berry?

Similarly across half-back are youngsters Lachie Sholl, Andy McPherson and Will Hamill given the majority of the time favouring Rory Laird and Brodie Smith?

History would suggest a more rounded approach is the best development approach rather than an ‘all in’ approach on youth. Just look at Carlton, they struggled under Brendon Bolton, who only played the kids in the developing midfield. With a more balanced approach under David Teague, they find themselves being competitive, more rounded, and with the view that finals are finally attainable.

That’s why for me I believe Laird will still spend plenty of time through the midfield. Last year, he was a dynamic on the inside and busy ball winner who could also apply high defensive pressure and use his speed to impact the outside. Even with the need to get more midfield time into the kids, he’s still needed for the side’s greater good.

With the shortening of the interchanges and the expansion back to full quarters, we’ll still see Rory rotate off the halfback, but he’ll be far from an exclusive option back there.

At best he’s one of only 2 other defenders capable of matching or beating Jake Lloyd in terms of ceiling and consistency. While at worst he’s a low 88-95 averaging defender who will play off half-back but still be a top 10 overall defensive performer.

If you can handle the potential downside of that and don’t want risk waiting on him as an upgrade then you’ve probably got your answer about if you should start with him or not.

Lastly, he does share the dreaded round 14 bye along with Collingwood, Sydney, Melbourne, St Kilda and Fremantle. As discussed on several podcasts, be cautious about how heavy you are in the round. Otherwise, you could find yourself in a world of pain for this week.

DRAFT DECISION

Given his strong run home across last season, Rory Laird will shoot up draft boards. Add onto this the desire for coaches to secure a top tier defender and forward early; we’ll see him get picked inside the first 20 overall picks.
He’s clearly a D1 and depending on how the draft is evolving he’ll be gone somewhere been a late first or early second round pick.

Is he worth that pick? Ultimate time will tell, but if you want him that’s what it’ll cost you to snag him.

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#13 Most Relevant | Matt Rowell

Read Time:5 Minute, 25 Second

After the opening 4 rounds of the season, Matt Rowell was on track to deliver us the great rookie season ever. Sadly a shoulder injury put an end to that. Can he pick up from where he left off?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Matt Rowell
Age: 19
Club: Gold Coast Suns
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
106 Vs West Coast (AFLFantasy)
171 Vs West Coast (SuperCoach)

2020 Average:
70.8 (AFLFantasy) | 88.5 (Adjusted Average)
100.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $495,100
AFLFantasy Price: $574,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $588,400

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

In 2019, Sam Walsh gave fantasy football coaches one of the great debut seasons ever. After the first four rounds of 2020, Matt Rowell showed that he was on track not just to eclipse, but smashing through that glass ceiling.

The former #1 draft pick averaged 18 possessions, 5 tackles, 4 clearances, 4 score involvements, 2 rebounds 50’s and 2 inside ’50s per game. Just looking at that scoring build, you can see that he’s not a one-dimensional fantasy option. He wins it on the inside, is impactful on the outside and does the defensive tough stuff.

Before succumbing to his season ending shoulder injury, he scored 64, 108, 104, & 78 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam resulting in an average of 70.8 or 88.5 adjusted. For SuperCoach he scored 72, 172, 141 & 114 as his first four games and ended up averaging 100.8.

Yes, it’s only a few AFL games, but it reflects his junior career’s dominance. At the Under 18 Championships in 2019 for Vic Metro, Rowell averaged 25 disposals a game, 12 of those were contested possessions.

In the NAB League for Oakleigh, Rowell averaged 171 SuperCoach and 123 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. From his seven games, he averaged 32 disposals, 17 contested possessions, eight tackles and four marks per game.

Due to him missing 12 of a possible 17 games he’s been awarded a small discount. In AFLFantasy he’s now priced at 77, in SuperCoach at 92, while in DreamTeam he’s priced at 63. If you believe he can lift his average across the formats anywhere between 95-105, he still presents value for coaches across all formats.

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MY TAKE

It might only be early February, but Matt Rowell is among the most popular selections across all formats of the game. He’s currently in 52% of AFLFantasy and SuperCoach teams, while in 44% of DreamTeam sides. It’s high ownership numbers like this that create two types of responses from coaches.

The first is to be bold and ‘take him on.’ With ownership that high, some might be tempted to think that they can find a comparable or stronger performer than Rowell around that similar price range. With so many picking him, all it could take is a slow start or injury management from the club to feel like you’ve come out ahead.

On the other hand, you can view these high ownership numbers as risk mitigation. With such a large population of the game owning him he’s the sort of player that if his scoring ‘pops’ and you’re not on him, then the year starts with you playing catch up early.

Please make no mistake about it; Matt Rowell is a superstar player. And for a long time he’ll be in our fantasy sides, but is 2021 the right time? As good as he was last year, it was only just 4 full games.

As good as his 4 full games were, it’s only 4 games. At his price point, he’s priced either similarly or cheaper to proven performers like Ben Cunnington, Rory Sloane and Dyson Heppell. Can you really pick a player who’s played just a handful of matches over these established options?

History is also against him. How often do we see second year players breakout to genuine premiums? Nat Fyfe did it, as did Clayton Oliver and Jackson Macrae. Clearly, it’s rare air to be able to do it. For those who are Rowell believers, they will easily believe he can match it with these fantasy greats in his second year.

The big question prospective and current owners want to be answered ‘How’s the injury recovery going’? According to the club, the Suns will play it safe with his contact work to get him ripe and ready for round one. At this stage, he’s on track to appear in the clubs preseason AAMI Community Series clash.

With two trades a week and over half the competition owning him in AFLFantasy, there is absolutely no risk in picking him. The potential reward is light years ahead of any possible risk. In this format, he’s one of the easiest automatic picks of the season.

In DreamTeam and SuperCoach, the selection isn’t as obvious, but based on his ownership numbers clearly, a majority of coaches think we’ve only just got glimpses of his potential. For SuperCoach, he will need to pop that average closer to 105 or more to be worth it, while in DreamTeam reaching the 100 will certainly prove a strong reward for his owners.

Matt Rowell is a joy to watch and own. Given his ownership looks set to be sky-high, he’ll not just be defining the Suns’ success, but the potential of our fantasy footy seasons.

DRAFT DECISION

The drafting range of Matt Rowell could be relatively broad. There’ll be some that are super bullish and jump on him as an M2, while others will see his small sample size and hope he can be available at M4.

For me the sweet spot is M3, but he could be a midfield spot either end depending on the style of coaches in your league.

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#14 Most Relevant | Tom Mitchell

Read Time:6 Minute, 12 Second

After returning from a horrific broken leg, Tom Mitchell put together a fine season. The question is, can he get back to averaging near 130 again in 2021?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Mitchell
Age: 27
Club: Hawthorn Hawks
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
115 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy)
164 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
195 Vs GWS | AFLFantasy (2018)
192 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2018)

2020 Average:
86.1 (AFLFantasy) | 107.6(Adjusted Average)
113.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $610,000
AFLFantasy Price: $823,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $795,700

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

After missing for the entire 2019 AFL season, the fantasy football community was excited to select Tom Mitchell. And while he didn’t return to the insane scoring heights of his Brownlow Medal winning 2018, ‘Titch’ still was a high quality performer.

Per game, he ranked 2nd in the AFL for handballs, 5th for effective disposals, 9th for uncontested possession, 18th for contested possession, and stoppage clearances. All done off the back of a broken leg and with a bung shoulder all year.

From his 17 games last year he ranked 13th for total points in AFLFantasy and 20th by averages. Speaking of averages, he went at 86 (107 adjusted) and scored 5 tons plus 5 additional scores of 80 or more.

In SuperCoach he averaged 113, scored 12 tons with 5 over 130 and just one score under 83 all season. His 2020 season ended with him ranked 11th for total points, 10th by averages among all players.

As the season went on, he got better. Over the first 8 games, he averaged 76.8 (96 adjusted) in AFLFantasy and 107 SuperCoach. However, in the last 9 matches, it was 94.4 (118 adjusted) for AFLFantasy and 118 in SuperCoach.
8 of his 10 largest AFLFantasy/DreamTeam scores came in the final 9 weeks. While in SuperCoach 7 of his final 9 games were tons.

If you’ve followed footy for more than 12 months then your familiar with that fact that ‘Titch’ missed the 2019 season after he broke his leg at Hawthorn training.

During the 2018 season, he was dominant in all fantasy formats of the game. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he played 22 games, had only one score below 80 and averaged 129.1. It consisted of seventeen scores of 100 or more, fifteen of them higher than 120 and a ridiculous ten over 140. That year he reached his personal best AFLFantasy score with a 50 possession and 13 tackle game against GWS. In that game, he posted a 195.

As a reference point, only Dane Swan’s 2012 season were he averaged 133 and Tom Rockliff’s 2014 going at 134 have averaged more in a single season.

Across that season for SuperCoach he had only one game where his scoring dipped beneath 80. Mitchell reached triple figures in 18 games and had 14 scores over 120 and nine over 140. Two of those games were over 180 including personal best against Carlton. That game he had 46 possessions, nine tackles, two goals and 192 SuperCoach points.

Can he get back to this 2018 scoring for 2021? Because if he can climb back anywhere near that? There’s potential about 20 points per game of growth in him for AFLFantasy and 16 in SuperCoach.

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MY TAKE

You don’t have to be among the best fantasy football coaches to recognise that Tom Mitchell’s scoring ability across formats is unrivalled. For multiple years and at clubs he’s shown just how destructive a player he can be. When we consider fantasy footballers that if you don’t own them that they can destroy your season ‘titch’ is a certainty in that category.

I suppose the question then needs to be asked ‘if he’s so good, why is he not inside the top 10 most relevant?’ An excellent question, which has two reasonably simple answers.

Firstly, during the offseason, Tom Mitchell underwent a should reconstruction. Bizarrely, he initially suffered the injury in round one, but he still managed to play every game in 2020. Recently he spoke out that he’s ‘no certainty to be ready‘ for round one.

The positive is that he’s still able to get all the fitness base work set given you don’t need your shoulder to run. That’s important for him coming off a broken leg.

The second is about whether or not he’s got the capacity to get back to the uber elite days. Multiple years of 120+averages is elite, but remember these seasons were done without James Worpel and Jaeger O’Meara. For Hawthorn to rebound up the ladder it won’t be all won and down of Titch through the guts.

What do you need to see from him in the preseason to select him? Is it to play the AAMI Community series match? Is it to take and respond well to some heavy bumps and tackles in this game? You need to set up a clear path of what he needs to achieve for you to select him, otherwise you’ll allow confirmation bias to determine the outcome.

While I don’t think he’ll go back to being that 125+ performer again, I do have him across the formats averaging around 115. For me, in AFLFantasy and DreamTeam, that’s enough for me to start him. And should most definitely be on your upgrade plans in SuperCoach.

If he’s currently in your starting squad, then you need a backup plan. I’ve played fantasy footy long enough to know how this could go for you if you don’t. It plays out like this, you love the Tom Mitchell pick and your structure so much, but if he fails to play round one, you find yourself stuck.

All of a sudden your in one of 2 bad choices. The first, you settle on a lesser quality player that fits your cash range, but not your scoring prioritise. Or second, you destroy your entire preseason structure to amend this one selection.

To put it simply, have a backup plan. If Titch doesn’t get up for round one, what’s your Plan B? If you don’t know it, you need it. Otherwise, it could be a stressful and catastrophic decision.

DRAFT DECISION

The valuing of midfielders in the draft’s opening round is clearly the least I’ve seen in the past decade. As a result, Tom Mitchell and other topline midfielders will find themselves getting drafted marginally later than previously. I still have him ranked as a safe M1 selection and will fly off draft boards in the second round. Coaches won’t sleep on a player with his scoring capacity for long.

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#15 Most Relevant | Josh Dunkley

Read Time:7 Minute, 2 Second

During the trade period, Josh Dunkley attempted to move to Essendon to play more through the midfield. However, after staying at the Bulldogs could this son of a gun still get his wish?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Josh Dunkey
Age: 24
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: MID/FWD

2020 Highest Score:
108 Vs St Kilda (AFLFantasy)
151 Vs West Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
189 Vs Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2019)
202 Vs Melbourne | SuperCoach (2019)

2020 Average:
77.7 (AFLFantasy) | 97.1 (Adjusted Average)
104.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $560,200
AFLFantasy Price: $741,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $717,700

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2020 was a crazy year for Josh Dunkley. He could find himself playing as a defensive forward from an on-field perspective, then a ball winning midfielder and even as a pinch hitting ruckman. While off-field it was the on again, off again trade to Essendon which eventually fell through.

With the constant change and the shorter quarters it ultimately impacted his possession count for the year. It dropped by 10 per game to 18, but his tackle count (average 6.1) and goals (average 0.5) held. He ranked 4th for tackles per game across the league, 4th for tackles inside 50 per game and 20th for handballs per game.

Despite the role rollercoaster ride of his role his SuperCoach season as a whole held strong. He opened the season with a three game average of 108 including two scores over 128. However, from then until round 10 Dunks was sidelined with a serious ankle injury.

Upon his return, he played the remaining 8 games, scored 3 tons including a 151 and delivered the lowest score of 87. From a seasonal perspective, he ended the year averaging 104. Not bad for a guy who’s role would change constantly. The positive for SuperCoachers is that regardless of the role he’s asked to execute, Josh finds a way to score well.

In AFLFantasy and DreamTeam the scoring highs and lows were more pronounced and yet he still scored three tons and an additional score over 80.

2019 saw us with a similar theme. That being that of Josh’s role being fluid within the team. Over the opening six weeks of the season, Dunkley spent his time primarily as a forward. From a fantasy footy perspective, he was averaging 77 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 85 in SuperCoach.

Across all formats, he failed to raise the ton during this time. Thankfully it didn’t stay this way for the whole year. From round seven onwards he was released into the midfield and with stunning scoring results.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam DT over the final sixteen matches, he scores 14 tons, 9 of them were above 120, and 4 over 140 and an average of 123 after the move.

It was an even stronger return in SuperCoach. From the final 16 matches after the midfield move he posted 14 tons, eight were over 120 and four over 150. One of these was when Dunks joined the elite SuperCoach history with his score of 202. He had only two scores below 100, with his lowest 88. In terms of average, he went at 127 after the move.

I don’t even need to go into his 2018 data trends, because you get the idea. When given ample midfield time Josh Dunkley has the potential to end the season as the #1 fantasy football forward in all formats of the game.

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MY TAKE

One of the things that helped the Dogs win them the premiership in 2016 was versatility and flexibility. The negative for fantasy coaches is that when players are used unpredictably in multiple roles, it can be challenging to have confidence in selecting a player, especially if one of those secondary roles isn’t fantasy-friendly.

Throughout the 50 Most Relevant series I’ve spoken at length about what the addition of Adam Treloar might add to the Bulldogs mix. And which if any players will have a subsequent fantasy football scoring decrease.

Even if Dunkley is one of the midfielders with a rotation or two impacted, his ability to add forward pressure and convert on the scoreboard makes him a damaging option when needed inside forward 50. Just look back at his debut season of 2016. He posted 8 scores north of 8 including 4 tons in AFLFantasy and 5 times scoring 80+ including a 99 in SuperCoach. I think regardless of the role he is needed to fill; Josh will score well.

Dunkley offers something that Treloar, Macrae, Smith and Bont don’t. As an individual, he boasts a high end defensive workrate, but not at the cost of ball winning. No other Bulldogs midfielder has that skill combination of Josh.

The fact Josh Dunkley didn’t just recover from that syndesmosis injury in his left ankle but played in a variety of roles is incredible. How? Ask anyone connected to the kennel; Dunks is the most focussed, professional and hardworking player at the club. If he can come back from that injury and deliver a sold back half of the season. Imagine what he can do with a full preseason under his belt? One thing is certain; he’s desperate to highlight his worth this season to current and potential future suitors.

Selecting Josh, or any other player for that matter has an element of risk in the selection. And like any risk, it can be viewed from both perspectives. One angle pf viewing the risk is that given the bounty of midfield options the Bulldogs have you find yourself with zero confidence in his role, and thus his scoring variation could yo-yo weekly. Why choose the potential chaos of variation when you can just be safe and lock in someone like a Dustin Martin instead?

The 180-degree perspective is that if Josh Dunkley does have enough midfield minutes, he’s got the scoring ceiling to match it with the best in the game. After 3-5 rounds of him going 125-140, you’d have to adjust strategies to bring him in drastically. Otherwise, he could do something similar that Lachie Neale did in 2020 and take the season away from you quickly.

What do you need to see in the AAMI community series to pick him or pass on him? Ultimately whatever your pre-existing view is already, then it will likely confirm your existing perspective. Because if he plays midfield, you’ll either be further convinced of that being his role or think it’s Luke Beveridge just spinning the magnets in a game that doesn’t matter.

I’m starting him everywhere. I think the risk of him failing as a selection is as real as the potential of him smashing it. For me, I’d rather lean on the side of the ceiling upside with the knowledge that his downside isn’t as catastrophic as many believe.

Others, however, will be different and see the same things but take a different conclusion. And that’s what I love about fantasy footy. We can all see the same data but justifiably come to different conclusions. That’s what the preseason is about, starting a conversation, looking at possibilities and then backing your gut and do what you believe is right for you.

DRAFT DECISION

The drafting range of Josh Dunkley is fascinating to me. In some leagues, he’s a later first round selection. Others believe the risk of insufficient midfield time isn’t worth jumping inside the first five rounds.

Generally, the truth is somewhere in the middle. And given the lack of top end forwards I genuinely believe Dunkley will depart somewhere between the second and third rounds.

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#16 Most Relevant | Reilly O’Brien

Read Time:6 Minute, 37 Second

Reilly O’Brien was a shining light in a dark and disappointing 2020 for the Adelaide Football Club. As the Crows look to bound up the ladder can ROB do the unthinkable and take a top two ruck spot?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Reilly O’Brien
Age: 25
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Ruck

2020 Highest Score:
115 Vs West Coast (AFLFantasy)
161 Vs Port Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
146 Vs Richmond | AFLFantasy (2019)
181 Vs Richmond | SuperCoach (2019)

2020 Average:
86.7 (AFLFantasy) | 108.3 (Adjusted Average)
106.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $570,800
AFLFantasy Price: $828,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $801,200

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2020 was a dark season for the Adelaide Crows. Thankfully they did have one big bright shining light. That being the breakout season of eventual club best & fairest winner Reilly O’Brien.

ROB averaged almost 14 possessions per game, 27 hitouts, 4 marks, 4 tackles 3 score involvements and 2 inside 50’s a game. Across the AFL he ranked 5th for total hitouts and 5th for contested marks, where he took more than Tom Hawkins, Richmond’s Tom Lynch or fellow ruck Max Gawn.

From an AFLFantasy perspective, he averaged 86.7 Avg (108 adjusted average) and scored 6 tons and 5 additional scores 80+. Due to the shorter quarters, AFLFantasy coaches treated scores of 80 as 100’s in 2020. Last year his lowest score was 61, while that sounds poor it’s a ‘higher’ low score than Brodie Grundy who delivered a 53 in round 6 against the Hawks.

In this format of the game, he ranked 10th for total points scored and 17th for average. Last year in these categories he outperformed fantasy stars in Tom Mitchell, Lachie Whitfield and last-years breakout beast Christian Petracca.

In SuperCoach he ranked as the 20th best performer across the competition for averages and total points. He averaged 106 across the year; it included 9 tons, 4 of which were over 120 and he dipped his scoring below 82 in just one match all year.

With the shorter quarters, it’s no surprise his possessions, and hitout counts dipped. That’s common across most rucks in 2020. However, he increased his marks per game and held his tackle count at averaging 4 per game.

His breakout was evident as the 2019 season went on. That year in AFLFantasy he averaged 95.5, scored 8 tons, four of which were over 120. And in his final 9 games of the season, he scored 90 or higher in 8 games. In SuperCoach that year he averaged 95.2, delivered as a popular R3 option with 6 tons and 4 of them he went over 120 including a career high 181 against Richmond.

ROB is clearly building and growing into his game, and at 25 years old he’s hitting the prime of his career. For rucks, it can take well into the mid ’20s before they hit prime performances. Look at Max Gawn it was his 2016 when at 25 years old he hit his peak. That season he averaged 106 in AFLFantasy/Dreamteam and 118 in SuperCoach. Those keen on starting O’Brien will be hoping for a similarly dominant season.

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MY TAKE

One of, if not the greatest assets of Reilly O’Brien’s game his athleticism and endurance. With the AFL confirming a return back to full length games, players who can outwork opposition with high work rate should find themselves with a scoring benefit.

The arrival of high draft pick Riley Tilthorpe won’t rob (pardon the pun) O’Brien of many ruck minutes at all. The Crows are desperate for a long term tall target and will be keen to maximise as many forward minutes as possible for him. If anything, it’ll be for 3-4 minute stints at best Tilthorpe is rucking. After all, the longer a game goes on, the more the endurance skills or ROB shine brightest.

O’Brien is the only ruck that can challenge Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy for the top two mantles across formats. Why? Not just because of his obvious scoring capacity, but because he has the least ‘internal’ challenges or challengers to overcome.

At Melbourne, they are desperate to keep developing Luke Jackson. While training multiple times a week with Max Gawn is a great headstart, the club will still want to increase his time through the middle as a ruckman.

Brodie Grundy had both Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox in 2020 play together upfront as the Pies looked to create a tall forward target. At the same time, his scoring dried up. Now is that causation or correlation? Ultimately you are the judge. But if all three play together that’s not going to help anyone’s scoring.

Todd Goldstein is nearing the end and won’t get near them. West Coast constantly manages the workload and time on the ground of Nic Naitanui. And St Kilda is still using both Paddy Ryder and Rowan Marshall in the rucks. In short, if we are to see a title change in the rucks, I believe O’Brien is the only possible option.

If you contrast his last 6 games against Brodie Grundy it’s clear to see that he’s not that far away from the top tier of rucks already.

In AFLFantasy Reilly O’Brien is $40,000 cheaper than Grundy, almost $80k less in DreamTeam and is priced about $60,000 below Brodie. If you believe the gap between the two is low or non-existent, cash saved could be of huge value.

You must either start with ROB or ignore him all season, injuries pending of course. This is for two key reasons. Firstly, his early fixture. Between rounds 1-8, he has the best matchups possible. He plays the Cats, Swans, Suns, Roos, Dockers, Hawks, Giants & Port Adelaide. Not a bad start to the season. Especially the opening two rounds, neither side has a clear first ruck option.

However, beyond that, it gets difficult in rounds 9-13. Eagles (NicNat), Dees Gawn), Tigers (Nankervis), Pies (Grundy) & Saints (Marshall/Ryder.) It’s the toughest ruck draw you could ask for leading into his goodbye round outside of Richmond.

Speaking of which, he shares the bye week with Brodie Grundy, Max Gawn and Rowan Marshall. So he won’t fix your bye structure issues at all. If anything it now forces you to back in the decision of where you believe he’ll finish ranked among the top rucks.

How confident are you he gets near, or surpasses them in either format? If the answer is a clear ‘no’, then he’s not for you. If it’s a ‘maybe’ or a ‘yes’, then ROB deserves some serious preseason consideration at the very least.

DRAFT DECISION

Our friends The Draft Doctors have created the mock draft simulator. There rucks, forwards and defenders in the top tier are going early. As such, if you wish to own Reilly O’Brien, it’ll cost you an early pick. In AFLFantasy formats, it’s likely to be either the second or third round he goes. While for SuperCoach, the range is a little wider. I can see him going anywhere from the second, right through to the fourth.

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#17 Most Relevant | Zach Merrett

Read Time:5 Minute, 46 Second

Since 2016 Zach Merrett has been a fantasy footy favourite among the community. After another strong season last year, can he elevate his game even further under a new coach?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Zach Merrett
Age: 25
Club: Essendon Bombers
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
138 Vs Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
159 Vs Sydney (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
152 Vs Richmond | AFLFantasy (2016)
159 Vs Sydney | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
92.5 (AFLFantasy) | 115.62 (Adjusted Average)
115.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $620,900
AFLFantasy Price: $884,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $854,700

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Every year there are not many certain things in football. OK, there are a few. Sam McClure bringing up the Crows 2018 preseason camp, Richmond winning the Grand Final, Will Gould being in our preseason sides & Zach Merrett averaging 100+ in all formats of fantasy footy

In 2020 he yet again was one of the most influential and consistent players across the AFL. Last year based on per-game averages, he ranked second for uncontested possessions and effective disposals. Third for inside ’50s, fourth for disposals and seventh for meters gained.

From his 16 games in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored 7 tons, 3 of them over 120 including a 138 against the Crows. Remember, that’s with shorter quarters. He also had an additional 3 scores 80+. He ended the year averaging 92 (or adjusted 115).

He ranked 8th for total points concerning all other players, not bad for a guy who missed a game through suspension. Amongst midfielders, he ranked 4th by averages, but honestly, that stat line is misleading. One of those players is Luke Dunstan, who played one game. Another is Lachue Hunter who played half the season. In reality, it’s Lachie Neale that was the only midfielder to average more than him.

2020 was a career best average for Zach Merrett; he ended the year averaging 115. It consisted of 11 tons, 7 of which were over 120 and all year his scoring dipped beneath 87 in other two matches. He ranked 16th for total points and ended the year with the 7th highest average among all midfielders.

Looking deeper at the season in greater analysis, you can see that as the season got better, so too did his scoring. In the opening 8 matches, he averaged 87.5 (109) in AFLFantasy and 106.6 for SuperCoach.

However, in the final 8 matches for AFLFantasy he averaged 101.1 (126 adjusted average) and a monster 124.5 for SuperCoach. That’s a differential of 17 (adjusted) points per game in AFLFantasy and 18 in SuperCoach.

The year prior in 2019 for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he posted fifteen scores of 100 or more, with seven of those tons being over 120 and finished the season averaging 108.

From rounds 4-15, he had an11 game stretch where his lowest score was 99. Only two scores below 92 all year, both in the 50’s.Hee spent a quarter off the ground with a concussion test again the Swans. The other was the dreaded Matt de Boer tag.

In SuperCoach he finished the year with a seasonal average of 106. The season consisted of fourteen scores of 100 or more, seven of them were over 120, and only twice last season his scoring dipped below 80.

Since his breakout year of 2016, he’s been a constant 100+ averaging player. In AFLFantasy he’s averaged 117, 117, 101, 108 and 115 (adjusted average). For SuperCoach it’s 111, 109, 100, 105 & 115 From a visual perspective it looks like this.

2020 is using the adjusted average (x1,25) of his 2020 actual average

Furthermore to this consistency of scoring he’s missed just two matches over the past five seasons. However, these are not injury impacted games. Rather both are suspensions. So in reality, he’s much more like Jack Crisp who has a near faultless availability and durability.

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MY TAKE

What makes Zach Merrett such a good fantasy performer? Simple, his diverse range of scoring avenues. He can win the ball on the inside and use his elite endurance to get into space outside. Equally, he applies strong defensive pressure without the ball.

A career best season in SuperCoach last year (avg 115) is nothing to sneeze at, and while he’s shown he’s a relevant midfielder I still believe his preferred format is AFLFantasy and DreamTeam. Why? Because in this format against most opposition he’s a genuine vice-captain/captaincy option most matchups. This is something I don’t believe rings as true in SuperCoach.

2020 was a difficult year for many, including Zach. He channelled the disappointment of being left out of the Bombers leadership group into some incredible on field performances. He now finds himself back as a recognised leader at the club.

Additionally, he’s into a contract year. Historically, we’ve some of our big name players deliver in these moments. Think Dustin Martin’s 2017 season or Tim Kelly’s 2019 performances.

What can we expect from Zach and Essendon in 2021? According to the club’s captain Dyson Heppell it’s ‘business as usual’ and that ‘nothing is changing‘ about the Dons game style. That’s positive news for potential Merrett owners.

In SuperCoach, I believe that he’s a strong option, but at his price, I think it’s hard to start him over a Patrick Cripps or Nat Fyfe who are legacy captaincy options and cheaper. For AFLFantasy, he’s a genuine captaincy option most weeks, and currently, just 6% of coaches are on him. Personally, I’m starting him in DreamTeam, and it’ll only be an injury that will prevent me from picking him.

DRAFT DECISION

Every format requires a different tiering of players and a different strategy. If drafting in AFLFantasy scoring format, Zach Merrett is a genuine M1 and will likely be gone in either the second or third rounds.

Those who draft in SuperCoach I have him pencilled in as an M2 and will be likely leaving draft boards somewhere between round 3-6. Why such a large range? Simple, it all depends on how heavy coaches go to secure top tier forwards and backs early.

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#18 Most Relevant | Zac Williams

Read Time:5 Minute, 51 Second

Zac Williams departed GWS to Carlton because he was desperate to play in the midfield. The question is, can he get through a full season for fantasy coaches?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Zac Williams
Age: 26
Club: Carlton Blues
Position: Defender

2020 Highest Score:
90 Vs Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
112 Vs Gold Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
142 Vs Sydney | AFLFantasy (2019)
145 Vs Essendon | SuperCoach (2017)

2020 Average:
65.6 (AFLFantasy) | 82 (Adjusted Average)
85.1 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $458,600
AFLFantasy Price: $626,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $606,100

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Although not the biggest free agency ‘name’ to move clubs last year. Zac Williams is a candidate for being one of the biggest impacts on his new club. His ability to be dynamic with his, line breaking pace and elite kicking skills are the credentials that the Carlton one paced midfield lacks.

Before his move to Carlton, Zac was a pivotal part of the Giants numerous finals campaigns, and despite having a slow start to the year, he was one of several players that benefited from the football lockdown last year.

The COVID delay actually helped Zac Williams play as much footy as he did. After missing round one due to recovering from an injury. Williams returned to the Giants in round two. From there he played three matches before a hamstring injury stalled his season. He then returned in round 9 and played for the remainder of the season.

From his 11 games last year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 65 (adjusted 82) and scored twice a 90 as well as an 81. Don’t forget ’80 was the 100 of 2020′ due to the shortening of quarters.

While in SuperCoach he delivered a 112, 111, 105 & 101 as his highest four scores of the year.

What has people excited about Zac is that he’s been recruited to Carlton not as a dynamic flanker, but rather as a pure midfielder where he spent time in the Giants midfield unit in 2019.

Once given that midfield role in the final 11 games of the year, he posted an average of 103 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and scored seven tons including three over 120.

While for SuperCoach he averaged 107 and posted 8 tons including a season-high 143 against the Kangaroos. In terms of scoring differential for pre and post-injury that’s +19 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and +13 in SuperCoach.

It might only have been a few months of sample size, but it was validated in the Giants final tilt. The role carried through the AFL Finals, during which he averaged 91in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 101 in SuperCoach.

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MY TAKE

Why has Carlton targeted Zac Williams to join their midfield? Honestly, It’s simple he’s been brought to add XFactor, dash and class. The Blues don’t lack on the inside of the contest with Patrick Cripps and Will Setterfield. Throw in the inside/outside skills of Sam Walsh and the adequate Ed Curnow. What do they need? A class second touch player. That’s exactly what Williams is and why he’s been brought into Carlton.

Is there a risk he’ll not play midfield but rather go back to the half back line? I don’t believe so. The half back flank is one line that Carlton is bursting with options. Inside the Blues best 22 are Sam Docherty, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Nic Newman and recent trade acquisition Adam Saad. There is no need for him there, plain and simple.

The reason to not select Zac is simple. His growing injury history. Last year his game count was affected by soft tissue injuries, In 2019 he missed two games again through a soft tissue (hamstring) injury, and finally, he missed the entire 2018 home and away season. In reality, Zac’s only played 52% of games over the past three seasons.

Because of this ongoing injury history, I believe that if you pass on Zac in your starting squad due to injury concerns, then no matter what you can’t upgrade to him. Why? Because as each game goes by, the jury’s historical likelihood only increases and with you already missing his likely healthy games, you’re only further increasing the potential of your trading into injury. Yes, history doesn’t dictate the future, but it means you can’t be surprised if his body breaks down.

One thing is unknown specifically around this role change. Not can he score well, we know he will in this role. But rather what tole does this take on his body?

At the time of writing, Zac’s ownership numbers are sky high. He’s currently in 38% of AFLFantasy, 39% in DreamTeam and 41% is SuperCoach. These names make him inside the topmost selected players across all formats. Whenever a player has this high ownership, coaches will have one of two responses.

Firstly, the ownership percentage is so high that it minimises the injury risk, with so many owning him any ‘injury’ doesn’t disadvantage you significantly. The other perspective is that you choose to ‘take him on’ and look for a player who could score similar and a lesser price with so many owning him. Which side do you take?

Williams for better or worse will define the success or failures of fantasy teams in 2021? The question is which? Personally. I think he’s set to boom at his new club.

DRAFT DECISION

Whenever a player is one of the ‘hype boys’ of the preseason is salary cap formats, they inevitably get considered earlier than normal on draft day. For that reason, I can see a world where on the draft day someone selects Zac Williams at D2. It’s not where I’d advocate selecting him. It’s also not to suggest he won’t deliver a strong return on that pick either.

Rather, it’s that my preferred spot for picking him is at D3. At this selection, you do several things. Firstly, you minimise the risk of your backs being to shallow should he not score well in a new system. Second, you’ve protected the pick with atleast two top tier defenders ahead of him. Meaning that at D3, his upside can shine while the down risk of injury is mitigated.

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About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

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