50 Most Relevant

#49 Most Relevant | Tom Phillips
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Read Time:6 Minute, 9 Second

For Collingwood, Tom Phillips might have just been a salary cap dump. However, at his new club, he could be a perfect value MID/FWD in 2021.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Phillips
Age: 24
Club: Hawthorn
Position: MID/FWD

2020 Highest Score: 
101 Vs Richmond (AFLFantasy)
103 Vs Melbourne (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
143 Vs Fremantle | AFLFantasy (2018)
131 Vs Fremantle | SuperCoach (2018)

2020 Average: 
63 (AFLFantasy) | 78.75 (Adjusted Average)
74.9 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $402,600
AFLFantasy Price: 
$602,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: 
$582.300

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Not much went to plan for Tom Phillips in 2020. Despite playing fifteen of a possible seventeen games, the now former Magpie found himself displaced from his preferred role on the wing.

Collingwood still valued his outside run and ability to create space but was clearly internally overtaken by Josh Daicos who made the wing his own. As a result, ‘Flippa’ was forced to adjust to a new role across the half forward flank, and because of this, his statistics and fantasy football impact dropped drastically.

In 2020 he averaged seven fewer possessions a game (16.3) than in 2019 (23.9). Six less kicks and his marks per game fell from 5.1 to 3.1 per game.

His SuperCoach season ended averaging 74.9 with just four scores 90 or above and a season high 103 being his sole ton for the year. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 63 (adjusted 78) and went over 90 just once. It was a 101 back in round two against the Tigers.

These numbers are a far cry from what he delivered the previous two seasons. In 2018 & 2019 in AFLFantasy he averaged 95 and 90 and played every game across both years. During this time he scored 16 tons including seven that were over 120. Over this 44 game stretch, he hit the ton in 36% of games and only failed to score above 60 in just three matches.

Tom Phillips SuperCoach numbers aren’t as strong but still hold strong especially his 2018 season. That year he averaged 90, posted eight tons and went over 120 in four matches. Additionally, he opened the season averaging 106 in his first ten games of the year. Last year, the average dipped marginally to 83 yet still posted four tons and an extra four scores between 90-99.

As a midfielder eligible player, these numbers would only be draft relevant. However, with him gaining dual position eligibility as MID/FWD, he becomes a viable scoring candidate.

Even more so by moving to a new club as part of Collingwood’s famous ‘it’s not a salary dump, but it’s a salary dump’ offseason trade period. At Hawthorn, he now has the opportunity to get back to his 2018-2019 scoring days on the wing.

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MY TAKE

The positive of being played out of position in 2020, has multiple benefits for prospective owners this season. Firstly, he’s gained MID/FWD DPP. Suddenly, the scoring threshold to make him relevant and valuable drops from needing to be 100+ now moves back into the ’90s. A scoring range he’s proven he can deliver.

Second, it’s that we now get him discounted considerably due to him not scoring well in that new role. Had Tom Phillips stayed at Collingwood even with the DPP gaining and the departure of Adam Treloar he wouldn’t make this list.

But due to a move to Hawthorn, he now can move seamlessly back onto a wing with the Hawks losing Isaac Smith. The case for him returning to those higher scoring days is much more believable at his new club.

Much will be made across the preseason about the dominant top group of forwards available this season. Patrick Dangerfield, Steele Sidebottom, Dayne Zorko, Rowan Marshall, Dustin Martin all look almost certain top ten forwards. A case can easily be made that Isaac Heeney, Josh Dunkley and even Toby Greene could also be in the mix across the formats.

As a result, we may need our breakout forwards to score at a potentially higher rate to make their selection worthwhile.

‘Flippa’ is ranked currently as the 18th best forward in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he doesn’t have to do much to climb into the top ten. Remember, he delivered that in an out of role season. In SuperCoach, the climb will take more work, as he’s currently ranked 36th amongst forwards based on last years average.

While those rankings might be favourable in part for him the question is this, ‘can he return to the 90 average days again’? If he does, even if not a ‘year end keeper’ then he’s done his job. If scoring is closer to an early 80’s average, then it just won’t cut it for us this year.

The benefit he does have over others near his price is that he is a proven scorer. We know when he gets the role, he can average 90’s. It’s not based on forecasted potential, but proven data. While the untested ‘breakout’ might be the flashier pick, sometimes you need to back in the player that’s done it before and in multiple seasons.

For SuperCoach, I believe he won’t be a top 10 averaging player, and with players, cheaper than him that I think will score comparable it’s for that reason he’s a pass in my books.

In AFLDreamTeam, if you believe he can push towards a top 10 average a get back to a 90 average, then he’s worth starting. At worst he won’t be that far off the top scoring pack so that even a mid 80’s average will still return some value while he could then be quickly flipped to a fallen premium.

While I think it’s AFLFantasy that he’s a serious starter. At best he smashes a few early tons and can deliver some value for money. While at worst, you sideways him to the breakout player that’s flying. Honestly, in this format, you really can’t go wrong.

DRAFT DECISION

Tom Phillips has the potential to push to be a low end F1 target, but if he were my top ranked forward on draft day, I’d feel light on this line. That’s not necessarily a problem, but rather can be balanced out with the selections you make in other lines.

If he were an F2 in AFLFantasy scoring, I’d feel very comfortable. While in SuperCoach, anywhere from low end pick F2 if going heavy in other lines on draft day, if not a base of F3 should give you a solid return.

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#50 Most Relevant | Jeremy Cameron
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Read Time:7 Minute, 9 Second

Jeremy Cameron was the highest profile player movement during the most recent AFL trade period. After a poor 2019 can he bounce back in 2020?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jeremy Cameron
Age: 27
Club: Geelong Cats
Position: Forward

2020 Highest Score: 
94 Vs Fremantle (AFLFantasy)
119 Vs Port Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
154 Vs Gold Coast | AFLFantasy (2019)
168 Vs Gold Coast | SuperCoach (2018)

2020 Average: 

51.1 (AFLFantasy) | 63.8 (Adjusted Average)
72.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $388,100
AFLFantasy Price: 
$488,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: 
$472,000

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For the second time in as many seasons, the team that loses the Grand Final to Richmond has a poor following year. This was both as a club, but certainly from a fantasy football output from Jeremy Cameron.

In 2020 Jezza had a scoring dip of 20 points per game in SuperCoach and an AFLFantasy adjusted average of almost 25 points per game. The positive for coaches that are considering him in 2021 is that he’s got instant value if he can return to his scoring best of 2019. Additionally, if he can return those numbers, he’d put himself right in the conversation as a year end keeper.

During his Coleman Medal winning and All-Austalian season of 2019 Jeremy Cameron was a dominant force. He kicked 67 goals and was clearly the most dominant tall forward in the game.

From an AFLDreamTeam/AFLFantasy perspective, he finished the season ranked as the 9th best forward by averages posting an 87.5 He also ranked 8th for total points ranked well ahead of popular premiums Christian Petracca and Toby Greene. That season he scored six tons, including a 147 against Richmond in round three and a final round 154 against Gold Coast.

For SuperCoach he went even better ranking 8th in that format for both total points and average for all forwards. He wrapped up the season with an average of 92.8 and scored eight times over 100 including four over 130 including a personal best 163.

2019 was far from a one-season outlier. A look into his 2017 numbers showcases his fantasy football ability. Despite missing four games in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 88.2 while in SuperCoach he averaged 89. Across both formats, he ranked top 15 for averages for forwards.

Coming to Geelong via a trade, the benefits should further increase on his fantasy output. Geelong is one of the most prolific scoring fantasy footy teams of last few years. The predominant reason for this is the Cats heavy possession retention game style.

Geelong love to hold onto the ball and choose to play a ‘mark and kick’ style of play. This should benefit Cameron, who is an elite field kick and also has a strong starting burst of speed to create separation from his opponents.

It really is a perfect combination. A proven fantasy scorer, is approximately 20 points below his scoring ability and he’s moved to a fantasy footy friendly team. Whether he had been on your watchlist before today that fact is all coaches need to consider Jeremy Cameron.

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MY TAKE

The arrival of Jeremy Cameron further signalled the Geelong Football clubs intent to be a premiership contender yet again in 2021. Much has been made already in the public eye about his poor 2020 season, but you cannot deny his match winning ability.

The big question football fans, let alone fantasy coaches want answers on is ‘can the twin towers of Hawkins and Cameron work together? Old school players will be remember fondly that when Brisbane had Daniel Bradshaw and Jonathan Brown they both found a way to score, especially the latter.

However, in the modern era, the closest contrast we have is Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt at Richmond. To look at just the 2019 season and contrast it to previous years is dangerous. That year Lynch didn’t have a preseason and spent the early part of the year finding his feet. At the same time, Jack was in & out of the side with multiple injuries.

If we look at 2019-2020, we see games, where both players have dominated games, but have as a whole, failed to replicate their fantasy scoring dominance from previous years. Will that be the same for a Hawkins/Cameron combination? Possibly, but it is something coaches will need to factor into his selection.

The positives of his arrival for Geelong are numerous. Firstly, both players game styles do complement each other. Tomahawk is at his most dangerous within 60 metres from goal. He can win the ball on the lead, and the Cats can dump the ball on his head knowing he’ll win most one on ones.

Jezza can play deep forward, but he’s at his best more as the mobile tall capable of getting up and around the ground as well as being an inside 50 threat. His strong overhead marking and elite field passing make him a prime target for Geelong’s possession happy game style.

His inclusion into the Geelong forward line means there will be weeks where either he or Tom Hawkins get the opposition sides second best tall defender. Where for the majority of their careers, both have been the #1 tall target. I expect Geelong to adjust strategy and targets mid-game to adapt to these matchups and exploit them.

The 2021 fantasy footy God’s have given us a plethora of the top tier forwards to consider. Whatever we lost from last season in Jy Simpkin, Andrew Brayshaw and Lachie Whitfield we’ve had them replaced with Patrick Dangerfield, Steele Sidebottom and Rowan Marshall.

We’ve got a bumper crop of top tier forwards, but we can’t start them all, and a player like Jeremy Cameron could well be a perfect stepping stone. He’s 15-20 points of value, and if he gets off to a flyer, he’s gonna make money and bank points quickly.

Geelong’s opening 6 opponents are: Crows, Lions, Hawks, Dees, North and Eagles. Certainly not an easy ride, but Cameron has shown over his career he can make even the most talented of defender look second rate.

He’s not currently in any of my personal preseason teams currently, but in DreamTeam & SuperCoach if you need a value price stepping stone or are convinced he’s going back to his 2019 days then he’s one to keep on the watchlist. Given the top tier forwards we have, if you hope to keep him, he’s gonna need to replicate that season to get close to being a ‘keeper’.

In AFLFantasy he does present value at under $500K. The benefit of his price is if he pops, your making money fast. If he slumps, you can pivot to the breakout player around his price that does.

DRAFT DECISION

Like many players throughout the 50 most relevant, his draft range will be format dependant. In SuperCoach, where he has arguably the higher scoring potential and as such is worth reaching for a round or two earlier if required. If Cameron is still available on the board when I’m looking to select my F3, then he should be right in the mix of selection.

In AFLFantasy scoring leagues, there’s a high likelihood the Cameron will slide in contrast to whee’s he’s previously gone. Last year in UltimateFooty his average draft position was 72 (approx. seventh round). This year he’ll slide well past that and should still be available in the 11th-13th round. If you could land Jez as an F4, he was the potential to push for an F2 or maybe even a low ranked F1.

In keeper leagues, he’s likely to not make many people’s ‘keeper’ list and as such, be a worthy redraft option.

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10 Players Unlucky to Miss the 50 Most Relevant for 2020
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Read Time:7 Minute, 35 Second

One of the hardest things in doing my annual 50 Most Relevant is culling players from the countdown that could be relevant in fantasy footy in 2020. Here are 10 Players Unlucky to Miss the 50 Most Relevant for 2020

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Andrew Brayshaw | MIDFIELD/FORWARD

Potential can be a dangerous word in fantasy footy circles. Andrew Brayshaw has plenty of points-scoring potential, and a case can quickly be built that he takes on plenty of responsibility in the midfield.

While he is every chance of pushing his season average north another 15 points per game into the mid 80’s he’s had only six scores in AFLFantasy and seven in SuperCoach over 80 in his 39 game career.

The positive trend is that four of those scores game over the final seven games of last season, but with only a few scores north of 90 in his career he’s filled with potential, but as yet he’s relatively unproven.

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Jordan Dawson | DEFENDER/FORWARD

Jordan Dawson came of age as a fantasy footballer last year. And now entering in 2020 he has arguably the most beneficial DPP pairing as a Defender/Forward.

My concern around Dawson is that last year his role changed multiple times across the season. Firstly as a wingman, then a half-forward and to finish the season across half-back. It was apparent that John Longmire liked him as the ‘Mr FixIt.’

In the right role, ‘JD’ has shown his scoring capacity, with eight scores above 90 in AFLFantasy and 10 in SuperCoach. However, I have a genuine concern that should one injury occur to the ideal Swans best 22 he’s the first guy moved to plug the hole meaning his fantasy scoring deviation week to week is a considerable risk.

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Harley Bennell | MIDFIELD

When I was initially crafting the top 50, Bennell was firmly in mind. However, there was one problem. At the time, he didn’t have an AFL contract.

Less than a month ago (around about halfway through the countdown) the Melbourne Football Club offered Harley a contract as a rookie. 

Last year I started the 50 Most Relevant with Harley, and if you want to see my take on his scoring history and potential, then you should check it out.

It’s pretty simple though, at his price and when if gets named, he’ll be hard to pass on even with the injury history.

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Adam Cerra | DEFENDER

It’s a similar line of argument for why ‘Chez’ missed as there was for Andrew Brayshaw. The role is there for the taking and as a junior, he showed he’s got the skills to be a phenomenal midfield talent. The question is very much around how do they structure up under a new coach?
Additionally, will he generate enough funds and score enough points to be the stepping stone you need?

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Brad Ebert | FORWARD

Last season Brad Ebert was flying in his new role as a half-forward. Between rounds 1-6 he had just the one score below 90 and was averaging 100 in all formats. From there he suffered a severe concussion and struggled across the remainder of the season.

In recent days the Port Adelaide coaching staff have declared he’ll be moving back into the midfield where he consistently averaged around the 90 marks. If that information had been publicly available a few months earlier he probably would’ve found himself into the 50 given the low number of potential forwards capable of scoring in that range.

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Brad Crouch | MIDFIELD

2019 was the year that Brad, his club and fantasy footy fans were anticipating. He played every game and ended the year with an average of 98 in SuperCoach and had the ninth highest average overall in AFLFantasy with 107.8.

At his price point, he no longer presents the value of 2019, and to be a viable option you need him to look to elevate his game a further 10-15 points per game in SuperCoach and an additional 5 in AFLFantasy. Could he? Yes! But at his price and given his career injury history, there is little merit in starting with him.

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Seb Ross | MIDFIELD

Seb, I don’t know what you did to ‘Richo’, but he had it in for you last year. After being a constant inside midfield presence and averaging over 100 in 2017-2018 in all formats suffered a decent scoring dip. Last year he dropped 5 points per game in SuperCoach and 13 in AFLFantasy.


However, under Brett Ratten, he posted scores of 159, 100, 129, 116 and 126 in SuperCoach. While in AFLFantasy it was 146, 97, 112, 99 & 103. Not a bad end to the year. While Seb does offer value with so many players moving into the Saints side, we need to see the midfield dynamic before getting the confidence needed to pick him.

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Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEFENDER

This preseason his teammate Dan Houston is the ‘hype man’ that every man and dog is on. I do understand the attraction, but DBJ is just as competent as a scoring companion.

In SuperCoach, from round nine onwards he had seven scores over 100, two additional 90’s and averaged 103. During the same timeframe in AFLFantasy, he scored five tons, two other 90’s and averaged 101.

What’s even more compelling about those averages over 14 game is that it includes a game where he played deep defence and scored single figures.

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Elliot Yeo | MIDFIELD

It’s a fairly simplistic answer, but an honest one. There are only so many premium midfielders you can include in a countdown like the 50 Most Relevant. Otherwise, the list turns into a ‘premo midfielders’ ranking.

Over the past two seasons, Yeo has proven his a consistent ‘105’ range midfielder and should you get the timing of him right he could be a perfect unique in your midfield.

There is one thing I’m convinced of though. Of all the midfielders that ‘could’ be impacted by the arrival of Tim Kelly, I’m least concerned about Yeo.

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Jacob Townsend | FORWARD

Now at his third AFL club, this premiership Tiger is hoping for another chance at the elite level. At the VFL level the past few seasons he’s been a reliable inside midfielder averaging 18 disposals, six tackles, four marks and four inside ’50s per game

At Essendon, the need for a big-bodied midfielder has been evident for years, and ‘Towner’ should be given a chance through this role.

As much ‘potential’ as he holds he’s also competing for this spot against Tom Cutler and Mitch Hibberd. Should he win out this battle and play forward, he will be a strong stepping stone candidate.

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#1 Most Relevant | Lachie Whitfield
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Read Time:7 Minute, 38 Second

We’re finally here! The #1 player in my 50 Most Relevant is revealed, it’s GWS Giants superstar Lachie Whitfield.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Lachie Whitfield
Age: 25
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Midfield/Forward

2019 Highest Score: 
190 Vs Carlton (AFLFantasy)
170 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

2019 Average: 

113.7 (AFLFantasy)
111.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $604,100
AFLFantasy Price: 
$844,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: 
$822,300

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Christmas came early for the fantasy footy community when the team at Champion Data determined that Lachie Whitfield was awarded dual position status. For some, it was a surprise, but for me, it was something I thought was a sneaky chance to happen.

Across 2019 it was an interrupted season for the GWS superstar, but despite playing just 16 matches, he still showed his value to the team and to fantasy coaches who owned him. Last year he averaged 26 possesions, 19 of them were uncontested. He averaged eight marks, three tackles, four inside ’50s, three clearances and three inside ’50s.

In the entire league, he averaged fifth for marks per game, 10th for kicks, 11th for uncontested possessions and 14th for metres gained.

In SuperCoach he finished the season with an average of 111.2 which had just the three scores below 90 all year, with one of them an injury-affected score. From his 16 games, he scored 11 tons with five over 120 and three over 150 including a personal best 170 against the Blues.

In AFLFantasy he averaged 113 across the year and had only three games where he didn’t reach triple figures. From his 13 tons across 2019, 6 of them were above 120 and 2 over 160 including his career-high 190.

He’s a visual of what his season looks like, check out the ceiling on some of these scores.

2019 was a personal best from Whitfield on terms of scoring average, but it was far from an aberration. During 2018 season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he scored twelve tons, half of those were over 120 while in SuperCoach he posted eleven tons and three of the tons above 120.

One of the very few reasons people might have a sour taste in their mouth regarding Whitfield is around the number of injuries he suffered during 2019. From an injury to his thigh, appendicitis to requiring surgery on his collarbone we saw Lachie miss multiple games through injury.

What might further dampen coaches enthusiasm is that during the offseason, he underwent ankle surgery. While it isn’t the perfect preseason from him, what is pleasing is that he’s currently in full training and has been for the past four weeks.

‘Four unrelated injuries in 12 months might be enough to put a line through him in some eyes, but before that, he’s been a profoundly reliable performer. In 2018 he played every game, while in 2017 he missed the opening few months of the season due to a drug ban. Indeed, the past 12 months have presented challenges, but in the broader context, I’d suggest he’s been more unlikely with different unrelated injuries rather than an injury ‘prone’ player.

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MY TAKE

Let’s get to the crunch, why do I believe Lachie Whitfield is the most relevant player in all formats of fantasy footy this season? It’s relatively simple, in his scoring line (forwards) he sits supreme in terms of averages. More than any other line I believe has the biggest’ gap’ between his potential output compared to whoever lands second place.

All other lines, I can build a relatively compelling case that across all formats, that multiple players should be within a handful of average points as the leader in each line. Maybe you can, but looking at it across all formats I can’t do that in the forwards.

During the change of seasons, we have lost almost all of last seasons best options. Patrick Dangerfield, Jack Billings, Tim Kelly, Josh Dunkley, Rowan Marshall and Travis Boak to name a few are all gone from this line. While the addition of Lachie Whitfield is a welcome one, it leaves us with a relatively large gap between what he averaged in 2019 and what the second-ranked forward did.

In AFLFantasy he’s currently got an average that which is 15 points per game higher than Toby Greene in second place. In SuperCoach the distance between Whitfield’s scoring is 11 points per game higher than Michael Walters who’s ranked second. While these are just historic averages, it highlights just how far ahead of the pack, his scoring is compared to the next batch. When it comes to the forwards, Whitfield is in a scoring tier of his own.

Even with a possible dip of a hypothetical 5-8 points per game I still believe he’s a clear five points on average better than the next best forward.

Every time I try actively to build a case to come up and go ‘against him’ i create a paper-thin line of argument. But if I was to summarise the concerns, it comes down to three. Firstly, is last year an aberration or an establishment of a new normal? Second, will there be enough points to go around in a bursting Giants midfield? And finally, is he now the #1 tag target at GWS?

Let’s deal with each of these seperately. First, is 2019’s scores a one-off? Honestly only hindsight will reveal that, but there is nothing to suggest it was, or that his scoring will fall away. Yes, his marks and disposals did bump up on average 2 each per game. But in the same case, his tackles dipped too. Given that the Giants game style is a high possession style of footy barring a dramatic game style overhaul I can’t forecast a dip significant enough not to start him.

Is the GWS midfield too stacked to keep his scoring high? Honestly, no! Whitfield is a more outside style of player and given his high athletic ability his ability to get into space and get those uncontested marks and possesions.

Finally, what about the tag, he’s shown a propensity to struggle under it. Is he now the #1 target? For some opposition sides yes, while for others they may determine Josh Kelly the one they are more likely to be able to quell the influence of. Could he get some down scores due to top a tag, potentially? But given the high calibre of players in the Giants midfield and Whitfield’s supreme running capacity, I don’t see it making a drastic difference to his seasonal output.

Sometimes you can over-complicate fantasy football because I can see no benefit to choosing to start without him. At worst he maintains his current output which still makes him the likely #1 forward for the year. Best case scenario he avoids his injury history, and his scoring numbers could genuinely push him to be a candidate for the #1 scoring player overall.

With his ownership percentage being among the top of all formats, I don’t see anything to gain should you go against him. Even if he dips his scoring or worse cops an injury, you obtain almost nothing. Given his price point, he can easily be traded to any forward you wish with cash still to play with.

He has the highest-scoring ceiling and frequency of all our forwards this year. And while I encourage everyone to do their own thing. I cannot advocate for anyone going against him.

While you can’t win your league or overall rankings glory in the first few weeks, you can make it near on impossible to succeed if you get ‘too cute’ and start the most bankable starting squad option in years.

I’m starting him everywhere, and I’m yet to hear a compelling and coherent argument not to start him. Save the pain, do it, pick Whitfield!

DRAFT DECISION

In drafts, he’s undoubtedly in the conversation as one of the first picked. If you have a top-three selection, he must be in play, as I believe he is by far the best forward available to us in 2020. I do think Brodie Grundy is the safest #1 pick in drafts, and I wouldn’t be opposed to the strategy of drafting Whitfield first given the lack of genuine forward depth we have. 

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#2 Most Relevant | Marlion Pickett
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Read Time:4 Minute, 24 Second

One game delivers him one premiership medal. It was a phenomenal debut from Marlion Pickett, and the benefit for fantasy coaches is we can now select a premiership hero as a cash cow in 2020. 

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Marlion Pickett
Age: 28
Club: Richmond Tigers
Position: Midfield

SuperCoach Price: $123,900
AFLFantasy Price: 
$170,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: 
$160,900

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

 To win a Grand Final and be a premiership player is a childhood dream. To do that in your first-ever AFL game is something that Hollywood films are made about. For Marlion Pickett, this is his life!

For seasons Pickett has nominated and hoped for an AFL club to call out his name. For years, he was rejected and went back to the WAFL to ply his trade. Then in the first-ever mid-season draft, he was picked up by the Tigers as one of the final few selections.

After coming to the club already with an injury, Pickett got to work quickly recuperating and preparing to push for senior selection. He managed six games (including a VFL premiership) before he made his way into the Grand Final side after an injury suffered to Jack Graham.

In the Grand Final, Pickett was electric! He won 22 possesions, having a massive nine score involvements, eight inside ’50s and three clearances. Topping it off Marlion finished third in the Norm Smith Medal voting. From a fantasy perspective, he scored 73 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 96 in SuperCoach.

Often in these types of articles when discussing cash cows, we look at their statistical data from the state league competitions to give us an indicator of what they could do at the elite level. However, thanks to his Grand Final day performance, we already have some degree of insight into what he’s capable of scoring.

With him not playing during the home and away season, the format boffins could easily have priced him differently. Thankfully, all fantasy footy formats have done the correct thing and priced him as a basement cash cow and not on his grand final score.

The big questions fantasy coaches will ponder this year, is just how good could he be for us in 2020?

Two seasons ago Geelong landed one of the steals in draft history. With pick 24 in the 2017 AFL draft, the club went on to pick up a superstar of the competition. Since then, every mature-age draftee has been contrasted to him. Whether that’s a good thing to do or not is another conversation altogether, but Marlion Pickett looks up for the challenge.

As a reference point in Tim Kelly’s debut season at Geelong he played 22 games and in AFLFantasy averaged 86 which featured six tons and a further four games between 90-99. In SuperCoach averaged 93 which was made up of eight tons and an additional four games between 90-99. If Pickett can get anywhere near those numbers, he’ll be the best cash cow of the season.

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MY TAKE

Should everything evolve as predicted and Pickett is named for round one, I can genuinely only see one reason you don’t pick him. That being, you genuinely are convinced he falls out of the Tigers lineup quickly.

There is some merit to that thought process with only Brandon Ellis out of their premiership 22 and players like Sydney Stack, Jack Graham and Riley Collier-Dawkins all starting to bang the door down.

Truth be told though, given his ownership percentage is already sky high and the fact he’s a basement price cash cow I see no risk in starting him. Even should he ‘fall out’ of the sides best 22 the vast majority of serious fantasy coaches would all be placed in the same boat.

There is no reward in my eyes in not selecting him should he be named round one. While it can be dangerous to make bold predictions in the preseason, I feel pretty comfortable with this one. Marlion Pickett will be the most valuable cash cow in 2020.

DRAFT DECISION

Like many of our cash cows like Matt Rowell or even Izak Rankine, I don’t mind him as a late pickup. His upside will be better than most we pick with the final few selections, so why not take the punt and hope he turns into Tim Kelly.

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#3 Most Relevant | Brodie Grundy
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Read Time:5 Minute, 5 Second

The #1 player in fantasy footy last year is primed to go back to back and do it again in 2020.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Brodie Grundy
Age: 25
Club: Collingwood Magpies
Position: Ruck

2019 Highest Score: 
181 Vs Giants (AFLFantasy)
174 Vs Western Bulldogs (SuperCoach)

2019 Average: 

122 (AFLFantasy)
130 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $705,900
AFLFantasy Price: 
$906,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: 
$882,600

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Brodie Grundy is the complete package. From a dominant presence at ruck contests, through to his aerobic ability to get across the ground and be another midfielder. The Collingwood footy club has a superstar of the competition for many years to come.

Last season he led the league it total hitouts, seventh for contested possessions and eighth for total clearances. Also, he was the highest-scoring and top averaging player in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy and AFLDreamTeam in 2019.

In fantasy footy, he didn’t put a foot wrong all season, and those that chose to go against him learnt the hard way that he can be brutal on the scoreboard and almost impossible to chase down.

In AFLFantasy last year his season consisted of 17 tons, 11 of them were converted into 120+ scores while almost half of all tons (8) were 140 or above. In addition to scoring a ton in 77% of the time last year, he dipped beneath 90 in just three matches on his way to averaging 122 for the season. For the first time in his career, he was the top-scoring AFLFantasy player.

Grundy was even more dominant in SuperCoach! His seasonal average of 130 was built around 18 scores over one hundred and an insane 16 of these he turned into scores north of 120. Additionally, eight of his tons were over 140. Along with scoring a ton in 81% of games last year, he had only three games all year that he didn’t score above 90. For the first time in his career, he was the top-scoring SuperCoach player.

With that many scores over 120, let alone the 140+ scores Brodie Grundy is a good captaincy option every week. If you look at some of the most popular selections this year, you can easily see that Grundy towers above them in scores north of 120 from last year.

If you’ve played any formats of fantasy footy for more than 12 months then you’ll be very familiar that last year was far from an aberration. Across 2018 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he posted 19 tons, 13 of which were over 120 and a massive five over 150. His numbers for SuperCoach were even stronger with 19 tons, 12 of them over 120, seven above 150 and his lowest score of the year was 95.

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MY TAKE

Brodie Grundy is worth every single cent. While you may be able to get him cheaper after the first price drops, based off last years history, it may be a tiny window of time and only a marginal reduction. Is $50K that big of a ‘gain’ to your side given the number of points you may miss trying to get him in? 

The often unspoken benefit of starting with him is the fact that his team have many of their games pre-bye as one of the first few matches in each round. Inside the opening nine rounds, they have zero Sunday matches. To make it even stronger, in round two and four they have the Thursday night match. This makes him a brilliant loophole option weekly in SuperCoach and DreamTeam while also a reliable option for the Thursday matches in AFLFantasy.

Like any of these top-end premiums, if you choose to ‘take them on’ and go against them, you need to have a mapped out strategy to get them eventually, and how you plan to maximise your scoring elsewhere. Can you afford to go against Grundy?

You can build a case that no premium is a must-have, as there is always multiple ways, players and strategies that can help you. However, with going against Grundy, it’s a fragile argument line to pursue. Nothing has significantly changed at Collingwood in-game style or structure to suggest his role will dimish or adjust.

I’m starting him in all formats. I genuinely can’t make a compelling case for going against him in either SuperCoach or DreamTeam.

AFLFantasy, I’m not opposed to it. However, you need to build a plan for how you will make up the money needed to get him. Considering if you started him he’s priced at $906,000 even if you paired him with a basement ruck, your still forking out over $1,000,000 in two spots. It’s only a further $80,000 to start both Nic Naitanui and Sam Jacobs as opposed to Grundy on his own. Could you generate more points on the field going against him?

DRAFT DECISION

He’s the #1 pick in all draft formats! If I have the top pick, that’s who I’d take. The only player you could be prepared to consider going ahead of him in AFLFantasy formats would be Lachie Whitfield but even then, I’m probably just thinking about it for a minute before picking Brodie.

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#4 Most Relevant | Jackson Macrae
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Read Time:5 Minute, 20 Second

Over the past two seasons, Jackson Macrae has been one of the best midfielders available. Entering into 2020 it looks like business as usual for this Bulldogs star.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jackson Macrae
Age: 25
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: Midfield

2019 Highest Score: 
180 Vs Collingwood (AFLFantasy)
155 Vs Brisbane (SuperCoach)

2019 Average: 

115.6 (AFLFantasy)
123.1 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $668,900
AFLFantasy Price: 
$858,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: 
$836,000

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

When it comes to Jackson Macrae even the most experienced of coaches can start to run out of superlatives to describe just how good of a footballer he is. Last year he averaged 34 possessions, 21 of these were uncontested while going at 74% efficiency. He averaged seven score involvements a game, five tackles, five clearances and four inside 50’s.

Across the league, he ended up finishing second for total disposals, second for uncontested possessions, sixth for goals assists, eleventh for contested possessions and eighteenth for total tackles. He ended the year with 22 Brownload votes (8th), came third in the clubs best and fairest and won his first All Australian honours.

When we look at his AFLFantasy season, it was another stunning season from the Bulldogs superstar. Across the season he averaged 115 and had only two scores below 80 all year. His year was made up of 17 tons, 9 of them he converted into 120+ including two 150+ monsters.

Looking at his SuperCoach season is a similar level of dominance. Across the season he posted 19 tons, 11 of these were over 120 and three above 150. He had just two scores all year beneath 80 and averaged 123 across the year.

Look at that season in totality looks stunning, however, he was even better in the second half of the season. From round 13 onwards Luke Beveridge established a clear dominant three midfielders, it was Josh Dunkley, Marcus Bontempelli and Jackson Macrae. These three became the centrepiece of the midfield and as such all of their scoring skyrocketed.

Macrae, in particular, received a strong boost. Pre bye in AFLFantasy he was average 101 with 6 scores of 100 or more. After the multi bye rounds, he averaged 129 and scored 11 consecutive tons with the lowest being 106.

Similarly, Pre bye in SuperCoach he was average 113 with 8 scores of 100 or more. After the multi bye rounds, he averaged 133 and scored 11 consecutive tons with only his 105 his only score under 115.

It’s hard to believe but based on how he ended last season and what he did the year prior, is we have some value for money in our selection of Macrae.

Across the 2018 season In AFLFantasy he was the second-best averaging midfielder of the season averaging of 122.6. That year was made up of sixteen tons, ten of those were over 120, five of those were over 140 and one which included personal best 190 in the final round of the year. On top of his consistent hundred scores, he had only two matches that he failed to reach 90, one of which he injured his hamstring before halftime.

For SuperCoach in 2018, his average of 127 included 16 over 100, 12 over 120 and just the two scores under 90 one, of course, being an injury impacted the game.

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MY TAKE

Whether you choose to start or not you’ll want Jackson Macrae in your completed side. If your passing on him in the hope he’ll be cheaper, later on, that’s fine. Just make sure you have a plan for how you can quickly get him in. By the times it gets to the bye round for the Dogs he’ll have had 13 games.

If he maintains the same scoring we’ve seen over the past two seasons, I don’t know if you can wait to his post-bye round 15 to trade him in. Macrae is the type of player who can take a season away from you quickly if you don’t have him.

The case for Macrae is fairly compelling due to the past two seasons. However, the case for upgrading him does have merit but requires some luck to go your way. Macrae is just as likely of having a slower start as he is to outperform his price point average well.

In choosing to go against him, you need to be clear in your mind why you’re not starting him? Do you want someone more unique early in the season that could match him? Do you forecast another ‘Bevo’ moment that causes a scoring dip? Whatever your view is be clear, be intentional and follow-through, however, if it’s wrong to be prepared to move quickly.

I’m starting Jackson Macrae in all formats of the game. I’m paying up because I believe he will be the top-scoring midfielder again in 2020. And as a final sweetener for me. In round one this season he plays Collingwood the last time he played them he scored 180 (AF) and 148 (SC). Round Two they take on Carlton and his most recent score again them is 140 (AF) and 150 (SC).

DRAFT DECISION

Jackson Macrae will be off draft boards very quickly. The consensus seems to suggest that Brodie Grundy is a popular candidate to take the top pick. From there, Jackson Macrae will likely be taken off draft boards within the next one, two to three selections. 

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#5 Most Relevant | Max Gawn
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Read Time:5 Minute, 35 Second

Over the previous two seasons, Max Gawn has been among the most popular selections. However, a preseason medial ligament injury has plenty of coaches looking elsewhere?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Max Gawn
Age: 28
Club: Melbourne Demons
Position: Ruck

2019 Highest Score: 
154 VS North Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
212 Vs North Melbourne (SuperCoach)

2019 Average: 

111.2 (AFLFantasy)
128.3 (SuperCoach)


SuperCoach Price: $697,100
AFLFantasy Price: 
$826,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: 
$804,500

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

On the field, it was a poor season from the Melbourne Football Club, but that wasn’t because of the efforts of Max Gawn. Last seasons his 21 games he still averaged 39 hitouts, 18 possessions, six score involvements, five marks and five clearances. In the entire league, he was ranked third for hitout and seventh for total contested marks.

Across his AFLFantasy/DreamTeam season, he ended the season as the sixth-highest averaging player overall lines and was the clear #2 ranked and averaging ruck. From a seasonal average of 111, was made up of 16 scores of 100 or more, nine of those he converted into 120+ and he had one match where he scored over 150. Across the 21 games, he had only two where his scores dipped below 80. In one of those games, he severely hurt his ankle and spent the majority of the second term on the bench receiving treatment.

In SuperCoach he finished the year as the second-highest averaging player and ranked fifth for total points. Last year he scored 18 tons, 13 of them were above 120 and a ridiculous four scores over 150. That included his 212 against North Melbourne in the final round of the year.

Across the 2018 SuperCoach season Eighteen times, he posted a score of one hundred or more while twelve of them over 130. And a massive five over 150 making him one of the best options to consider for captaincy across the season. On top of this consistent and high scoring he only twice dipped his scoring beneath 90 ensuring owners were never burned by his output frequently.

His dominant 2018 season translated into an AFLFantasy scoring personal best average of 111. Sixteen times he scored over the ton, eight of those were over 120 and an impressive five over 130 which made him one of the most consistent and frequent scorers of hundreds across the competition. Like in SuperCoach he also rarely hurt coaches who owned him with just four scores under 90 all season.

In his past 43 games, he’s scored a ton in 78% (32) of matches in AFLFantasy, while in SuperCoach it’s even stronger with a ton in 87% of games (36).

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MY TAKE

To suggest things have not gone entirely to plan for Max Gawn and the Melbourne football club is probably a grand understatement. During the sides preseason training camp went down with a knee injury, thankfully for all involved, it wasn’t a season-ending injury.

He’s still no certainty of being eligible for selection in round one, but according to the club, he’s commenced running. He is doing everything possible to be ready for the clash against West Coast.

Nobody should wish injuries upon anyone. However, for fantasy coaches, this provides us with a new decision to make. Do you still roll in with a set & forget combination with Max alongside Brodie Grundy? Throughout the season, it should balance out to be a substantial selection. We have multiple years of data to suggest he’s going to a top few ruck candidate again in 2020.

Or do you take an alternate route? With the injury to Max Gawn, it may take him some time to get full confidence back into that knee, and as such, we could see a few scores beneath his average of 128 in SuperCoach and 111 in AFLFantasy. This could mean that Gawn places himself as a tasty early season upgrade target. This means we could look to R2 selection that provides a potential value for money option.

Sam Jacobs has a fantastic early fixture and at his price point should be a great stepping stone to transition to Gawn. Nic Naitanui also provides value for money and along with Sauce has shown the ability to deliver strong scores over a long period.

The injury to Max Gawn this close to the season starting means that for many, they cannot begin to start him. So why is he so high in the 50 most relevant? Simple, you might not start with Gawn in your side, but I can 100% guarantee that you’ll end the season with him there.

The other side is that should his ownership stay relatively low (like below 25%) could he still be a player to start if he’s named round one? Even if he does have a scoring dip, which by the way is no certainty can you make the most of it?
We can honestly really only land one of these premiums at their lowest price, and with Max’s scoring capability even if he’s dropped $100K early on, will you have generated the cash to be able to maximise the value? It’s a fascinating perspective.

With back to back seasons over 127 in SuperCoach and multiple years over 110 in AFLFantasy, beyond Brodie Grundy, no other ruckmen provide me confidence in their scoring potential and ability over a long period.

DRAFT DECISION

The preseason injury might create a slight dip in where coaches draft him, but after Brodie Grundy, he will still be the second ruckmen off the board.

In SuperCoach formats he’s an official first-round selection, even factoring in a possible slower start. While in AFLFantasy, he’s a great candidate to select either late in the first or on the turn into the second round.

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#6 Most Relevant | Matt de Boer
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Read Time:5 Minute, 6 Second

Some players are relevant because of what they can do on the scoreboard. Others like Matt de Boer are relevant for the damage the can bring to our premium midfielders.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Matt de Boer
Age: 29
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Midfield

2019 Highest Score: 
105 Vs Carlton (AFLFantasy)
116 Vs Gold Coast (SuperCoach)

2019 Average: 

69.9 (AFLFantasy)
75.1 (SuperCoach)


SuperCoach Price: $408,000
AFLFantasy Price: 
$519,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: 
$505,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Are you surprised? Matt de Boer had one hell of a season in 2019, and at every turn, he destroyed all in his path. To be clear, he is not in the countdown for the scoring he can bring. On the contrary, when he is sent to negate as a player, he shuts them down drastically.

One of the unique traits of de Boer in contrast to other taggers in the league is he has shown the ability to switch opponents mid-game and stop them too comfortably. This was highlighted early last year when in one half of the game he took former Cat now Eagle Tim Kelly out of the game. Then the other half he took out Patrick Dangerfield who was thriving and created chaos in the game for GWS.

More than any other defensively-minded players, de Boer’s attention on a player caused catastrophic results if he was sent to a player you owned. To get a full understanding of the impact he had, I calculated each players average excluding the Game Matt was sent to them. What I learnt was that he was the single most damaging source to players scoring in 2019.

I tracked him as playing 14 clear negating midfield roles with one being split across two players in one game.

In AFLFantasy, on average he decreased players scoring average by a whopping 34 points. With Zach Merrett (minus 61) and Patrick Cripps (minus 59) copping the high impact. Marcus Bontempelli had the lowest incidence (down 10 points), while nobody was able to match or score above their seasonal average when MDB was seent to them

For a visual representation look at the scoring deviation he created when he was sent to line up on a player.

The tagging impact was just as similar for the majority of matchups in SuperCoach. Across the matchups, his influence on players scoring was averaged out to 35 points per game. Four players suffered a scoring differential of over 50 points which featured popular premiums Patrick CrippsClayton Oliver and Patrick Dangerfield

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MY TAKE

Nothing is ever certain in football. Game styles change, players fill different needs, and things evolve yearly for most teams. Without any preseason games or much public comment from Leon Cameron and the GWS coaching staff, we can’t have a full guarantee of what changes (if any) they will make.

One thing is clear, with GWS making a Grand Final last year and De Boer’s ability to negate the oppositions best midfielders it’d be a big swing to move him out of the midfield. Matt de Boer is a member of the GWS leadership group and is the perfect minded player they need in that midfield. With ball winners and stars like Tim TarantoJosh Kelly and Stephen Coniglioit’s vital to their structure to have a player defensively minded.

Why his impact is crucial is essential for two key factors. Firstly, you do not want to consider someone as a captaincy/vice-captaincy option when lined up against GWS. We saw last year he was more than capable of switching targets mid-game and being just as damaging.

Second, one of the keys to success in this game is getting a strong start from your premiums, especially in the midfield. A simple fact might decide the choice of who to start or not to that they could suffer a dramatic scoring downturn early.

I’ve forecasted on who MDB could target based on a combination of who he’s previously negated in the previous two seasons and the midfielder I believe is most crucial to their team’s attempts to beat the Giants.

The Western Bulldogs are the only team that play GWS twice before their multi bye round. This could be bad news for those wanting to start with Marcus Bontempelli. Other teams that play GWS twice in the season are Richmond, Sydney, Essendon and Geelong.

During fantasy footy finals they will play Brisbane, Geelong, Fremantle and Port Adelaide.

Popular premiums Patrick Dangerfield and Clayton Oliver both suffered at the hands of de Boer last season. In the opening two matches, the Giants are matched up against the Cats and Demons. Perhaps they might be better quick upgrades than starters?

Nothing is for sure in fantasy football, and alot can change at any place in time. However, barring a dramatic change that Matt de Boer factor could be a season-defining one for you and the premiums you pick. 

DRAFT DECISION

He’s not relevant in drafts as an on-field scorer. It’s the damage he does to others in drafts you’ll want to keep an eye on.

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#7 Most Relevant | Jake Lloyd
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Read Time:6 Minute, 5 Second

Over the previous few seasons, Jake Lloyd has been the best defender available. I believe once again in 2020, he’s our best defensive line option. 

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jake Lloyd
Age: 26
Club: Sydney Swans
Position: Defender

2019 Highest Score: 
149 Vs West Coast (AFLFantasy)
141 Vs North Melbourne (SuperCoach)

2019 Average: 

107 (AFLFantasy)
108.9 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $591,400
AFLFantasy Price: 
$795,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: 
$774,200

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Jake Lloyd has been a favourite amongst the fantasy footy community over the past few seasons, and it’s easy to understand why. As a rebounding defender, he weekly finds a way to consistently delivers substantial scoring numbers almost without fail.

Last season was without exception. Last year he averaged 25 possessions and went at 83% efficiency. Lloyd went averaged five score involvements per game and six marks. In the entire league, he ranked first for metres gained and effective disposals, second for rebound ’50s and sixth for disposals per game.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he finished the season as the number one averaging and top-scoring defender clear of second place (Jack Crisp) by over 200 points. He ended up as the 18th best for total points across all lines. Across 2019 he posted 14 tons, 8 of those he converted into scores over 120 and he finished the year averaging 107. And in only two matches did he fail to score over 80

His scoring was even stronger in SuperCoach with him ranked as the top averaging and total points scorer among all defenders. His nearest rival  Tom Stewartwas almost 250 points behind. Through the 2019 season, he scored 16 tons and between round 1-14 he had just one score that wasn’t in triple figures. Of these tons, seven were above 120, and he went on to average 109 for the season. During the season he had just one score below 80 where he was tagged to a score of 62 against the Gold Coast Suns.

2019 wasn’t just a ‘one and done’ season out of the blue. Jake Lloyd has been scoring like this for years. In 2018 from an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he scored 11 tons with nine of those being over 110 while in SuperCoach it was 14 tons and 12 of them were over 120. That season he averaged 101 in AFLFantasy and 112 in SuperCoach.

Lloyd, posses something we rarely find in defensive premiums. He’s able to seemingly has the rare combination of boasting a high scoring ceiling, maintaining a persistent volume of tons and has a healthy scoring basement.

Throw all that into the mix with that fact that he’s missed just one game in the past four seasons and it begins to be a compelling case for starting Jake Lloyd.

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MY TAKE

Everything looks perfect for Jake Lloyd, and if you look just at the top line, you’d likely lock him into your side. However, as the season went on, his scoring started to slow?

Over the final five weeks, he posted just one score over the ton in all formats of the game and averaged 92.4 in AFLFantasy and 92 in SuperCoach. While these numbers are far from mediocre it’s about a 15 point dip from what’s he’s priced.

Before the final five games, he was averaging 111 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 113 in SuperCoach. The question must be considered, do these five weeks give us a lead indicator of potential scoring to come in 2020? Or are these the aberration?

Over the final few weeks of the season, Sydney did start making changes to their structure, roles and a lesser degree game style. This is far from uncommon for teams to do as they look to renovate a playing list and with finals not on the radar, the Swans had nothing to lose.

Some might suggest the arrival of Jordan Dawson down to the backline was the primary reason for the scoring dip. While it is true that Dawson is a great user of the ball by foot, and he moved down back, I don’t believe it to be the case. Jordan was playing through the backline for multiple games before this scoring ‘lul’ of Lloyd, and it seemed to create no impact at all.

Instead, it was Jake himself that had a role tweak. The half-back flanker was given some minutes to play across the wing. Is this picture of what 2020 might look? I don’t believe so. Over the offseason, the Swans have recruited a vital piece of their future midfield in Dylan Stephens. He is a phenomenal wingman who possesses dashing speed, strong endurance and a beautiful left-foot kick. He along with Oli Florent will form a potent outside combination in the midfield.

What is more of a question is, can Lloyd and Dawson co-exist in the backline? Both are great users of the ball, and while it will only be known in hindsight the correct decision, that handful of games they both played inside the back six it seemed to work out ok.

One of the key considerations is that coaches must be aware that of all multi bye groupings, this is the one that’s filled densely with popular premium options. Along with Lloyd, it features Sam Docherty, Bachar Houli and Jack Crisp are among the most popular candidates from this block. Bye structure is only a small element of the game in our starting squads, but as the year goes on, it does become more critical.

At some point in the season, you’ll want him in your side, barring an injury I believe once again he’ll be the best scoring defender. The critical question is, will you start with him? Or will you hope that he doesn’t hurt you too often as you build towards a plan to trade him in?

DRAFT DECISION

I believe Jake Lloyd is the safest and best across the formats defender and as such he’s going to g early in drafts of all formats. It’s not uncommon to see him taken in mock drafts as a middle to late first-round selection. The crucial only reason I’d discourage you from jumping on him with your first selection is if your draft league has captains enabled. Then, he’s an excellent second-round pickup 

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