Tag: Dustin Martin

Upgrade Targets After Their Bye | Round 12

One week of the multi bye rounds is over. We now have six teams that have no more scheduled rests for the remainder of the season. Here’s a club by club breakdown of potential upgrade targets who have had their bye round.

Arguably the season’s feel-good story has been Sam Docherty’s comeback. Throw in that he’s having a career-best season in possession stats, and it’s clear to see why he’s many coaches #1 defensive premium target this week. So far, he’s had eight SuperCoach tons and just the one score under 87. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s had seven tons and just one score beneath 89. His scoring is so rounded and pure, so while he won’t be a value buy, he will be one of the best backs until the end of the season. 

 Currently, Sam Walsh is in under 10% of teams and on form of the past three games is ranked third among all SuperCoach and eighth in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. Whenever you can get a high-end scoring premium with low ownership, you need to consider them seriously. Many coaches will chase the value of a Merrett or Wines or go for the flavour of the month, Kelly. None are wrong picks, but Sam could be the best premium over the final ten weeks of the year. 

It’s been tough to have been successful so far this year without owning George Hewett. The stepping stone has outdone our wildest expectations and has probably been the best starting squad selection for 2022. By average, he’s ranked as the clear number one defender and tenth in SuperCoach. It’s this format that if you don’t own, he’s seriously hurting you. For AFLFantasy, he’s still been excellent as one of the top few defenders, but what he’s currently not done is hurt you with his ceiling. As yet, he’s still yet to score over 120. All this to be said if you don’t own in SuperCoach, I don’t believe you can be successful without him. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, if you want to own him, then absolutely get him, but I think he’d be someone I’d encourage non-owners to try and take on. It may hurt to miss, but we haven’t seen the Blues ‘fab five midfielders’. Perhaps we see him slide a little, and non-owners get a slight advantage. 

The year couldn’t have started any better for Patrick Cripps. Beyond a one-week hammy, he was unstoppable over the season’s first two months. However, in the past three weeks, he’s struggled to reach these heights for a combination of reasons. Cripps has gone at just 79 in AFLFantasy and 92 in SuperCoach. The combination of a week off to freshen up and the likely return of Harry McKay should enable him to be back towards averaging 100+ across the formats. He’s fine to hold if you still own him, but I think there are better options priced around him. 

There is only one Richmond player I have fantasy footy interest in, Jayden Short. On average, he’s ranked second in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and seventh in SuperCoach among all defenders. He’s been one of the best early-season options, and despite just one ton in his past three weeks, I believe he’ll be among the top of the backline picks. He’s not unique, nor is he cheap, but he is bloody good to own!

We don’t have a lot of ‘premium’ forward options available to trade into from this group of six teams. But if you are desperate to bring one in, then Dustin Martin is someone to consider. Since coming back into the Tigers lineup in round eight, he’s averaged 90 in SuperCoach & 81 in AFLFantasy. That’s well below his capabilities, and if you believe he (and his Tigers) can have another hot run of form, he might be worth a punt.

A month can be a long time in football. Just four weeks ago, Stephen Coniglio was someone that coaches were eagerly looking to trade after scoring a 49 in AFLFantasy and 37 in SuperCoach against the Blues in round nine. Since then, the club’s coaching has undergone a major overhaul, and as a result, he’s been thrown right back into the midfield and scored a 145 & 85 in SuperCoach and 120 & 108 in AFLFantasy. The club has confirmed that he’ll maintain this midfield role, and with Tim Taranto still potentially weeks away, he looks like finally being the premium forward we all hoped he could be. If you don’t own him, he’s legitimately one of the best value buys of the week. 

One of the most attractive options coaches consider is GWS skipper Josh Kelly, and understandably so. Multiple times over his career, he’s the ability to average 110+ for a full season across all fantasy formats. In AFLFantasy, he’s the form player in the game with the highest three-round average, with him rolling an average of 126. While in SuperCoach, he’s going at 137 in the previous three games, with only Clayton Oliver going better. He’s no longer a value pick, but if his current scoring trend holds, he’ll be among the top eight scoring midfielders for the final few months of the season. 

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Mark my words, Isaac Cumming is a star and will become one of the best premium defenders in the game. His elite combination of foot skills, intercepting and footy IQ make him phenomenally fun to own. The question is whether or not it happens, but rather will these next ten weeks see him average enough to compete with the best backs in the game. I’d look elsewhere, but he’s a premium gun for the future. 

It’d take a brave coach to reach blind and trade into Lachie Whitfield. He’s been played out of position and been sore for chunks of the 2022 season. As a result, his fantasy footy scores have seen more ‘lows’ than ‘highs.’ But historically, Lachie’s got the capabilities to be the top-scoring defensive option in the game. It’s a risk vs rewards decision for coaches. The encouraging sign is that we’ve seen the correction of both Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio under the new coaching regime back to their strongest roles, and the premium scoring has followed them. Will the same happen for Whitfield? Let’s hope so. 

Over the preseason, arguably the most hyped player was Zak Butters and his evolution into the midfield. While the midfield minutes are there, his inconsistency in scoring is still like a rollercoaster, with nearly 100 points the variation between his highest and lowest scores of the year. A three-round average of 108 in SuperCoach and 90 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam is good, but I’d be hesitant to want to bring him into my side. He’s got the capacity to be a top tier forward on the run home, but he’s just as likely to disappoint coaches on the run home. He’s fine to hold if you own, but it might be wise to continue on that path if you’ve avoided him to date. 

You’ve got to admire what Travis Boak has done over the past few seasons. He’s been one of the most reliable 100+ performers across all game formats. This year he’s still been good with some monster scores, including a 150+ performance back in round two. He’s dropped about $100k across the formats, so he does represent value. But this year, more than recently, Port is spreading the load away from the heavy dependency on himself and Ollie Wines. The Power fixture does look quite tricky over the next six weeks for midfielders. After tonight’s clash with the Tigers, they play Sydney, Gold Coast, Fremantle, GWS and Melbourne. He’s certainly an option, but I like others more, including his Brownlow winning teammate.

When Port Adelaide drafted RUC/FWD Brynn Teakle last week, it was a huge win for coaches. This is for two reasons! Firstly, he’s a RUC/FWD DPP, which enables coaches to move Tim English easily into either of these positions should coverage be needed. Second, he’s also at a team where he’s a genuine chance to pinch a game or two. Sam Hayes has been left out of the side this week, while Scott Lycett is still four weeks away. If you have Sam Hayes at R3, even if Teakle doesn’t play, it’s quite a good trade move. It opens up cash for upgrades and squad versatility. #Winning

Over the past 18 months, the top fantasy selection from Port Adelaide has been Ollie Wines. His seasonal average is down significantly compared to last year, but that’s due to an injury affected game against Melbourne in round four where he got subbed out. Excluding that game, he’s averaging 105 in AFLFantasy & 110 in SuperCoach. He presents value given his non-injury affected average & is someone to seriously consider if you believe he and the pear can get back to previous seasons performances. 

When the round 12 lockouts lifted, plenty of coaches went straight into their midfield and traded into Zach Merrett. And with good reason to, for the better part of his career, he’s been one of the safest 110+ averaging players in the game. A sub 60 score in round nine against the Swans is the primary driver behind his current price point. Outside of that game, his lowest score in AFLFantasy is 92 & SuperCoach it’s 99. The fixture ahead isn’t easy for the Dons, but of all their midfielders, he’s the most bulletproof for scoring and has the best scoring basement. A perfect example of ‘buy low’ on premiums and get an outperforming return on investment.

It feels odd to say this after his breakout year in 2021, but people are sleeping on Darcy Parish this year. He’s currently on a run of eight consecutive SuperCoach hundreds, with the lowest being a 109. The 10% of coaches currently owning have loved his season, given he also hasn’t dropped his scores under 97. In AFLFantasy, he’s had some more lowly basement games but still hasn’t fallen under 80 all season. Of his eight tons this year, six have been over 110, including a 131 & 146. It might be tough to pay up to him when his teammate listed above is of insane value. But he’s a prospect to consider for those with no salary cap worries. 

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Some potential value might tempt some with Mason Redman. He’s scored two tons and an extra over 90 across the formats in his past three. However, as good as his form has been, I wouldn’t be targeting him in classic. The potential volatility of Essendon gives me no confidence in trading into him.

You want premiums to be captaincy candidates when you pay the top price for a midfielder. Brad Crouch has had a strong season; in SuperCoach, he’s scored six tons and has had one score under 96 all season. In AFLFantasy, he’s also posted six tons and dropped his scoring below 87 just once. However, despite his good season to date, he’s still just averaging 104-105 across the formats. So as good as he’s been, he’s not a captain option, nor is he a value pickup. Therefore, it’s hard to get behind it. 

If there’s one St Kilda player you want to trade into, it’s Jack Sinclair. The running machine is ranked fourth in SuperCoach and fifth in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam for defenders. But it’s his more recent form that’s got coaches salivating at the possibility of trading into him. Over the past three matches, he’s got the highest average among all defenders across the formats. He’s been running at an average of 128 in SuperCoach and 118 in AFLFantasy. He’s not cheap, but he’s been an absolute beast this year. 

Ever since Paddy Ryder became a Saint, it’s been well documented that Rowan Marshall’s scores are heavily impacted when Ryder plays versus when he misses. This year he’s averaging 17.2 points per game less in AFLFantasy and 21.3 in SuperCoach when Ryder plays. So unless Paddy is missing major chunks of the run home, I cannot advocate for trading into Rowan Marshall. 

From the current reports, Jack Steele is still a few weeks off from returning. You should have completed your midfield by the time he’s ripe and ready. Perhaps a luxury trade target later on or if a premium cops an injury or suspension. 

AAMI Community Series Review | Hawks Vs Tigers

It was a young Hawthorn unit taking on an experienced Richmond outfit. The result was no surprise, but we learnt plenty from a fantasy footy perspective.

Josh Ward

Arguably the biggest takeaway from the game. Lock in Josh Ward. He was sensational across the game, in my eyes he was the best Hawk on the ground. Ward won plenty of the ball, he made good decisions both with and without the footy & is a certainty to play round one.

Connor Nash

Late last year the Hawks started to deploy Nash as a centre bounce midfielder. That role was evident yet again throughout this match. As a forward listed player player he could be a viable stepping stone for us to consider. The challenge with going ’all in’ on him in salary cap formats is that the Hawks were without Mitchell and O’Meara. How much of this role is the Hawks new normal? Or was he only given the heavy midfield minutes due to the absence of options? Sadly, we won’t know for certain until four rounds into the season.

Jai Newcombe

Took his time to build into the game, but as the final siren went it was evident as to why Sam Mitchell is such a fan of his. Jai adds a defensive hard edge to the midfield and will allow other Hawk mids to play to their offensive best. I don’t mind him as a late draft pickup.

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James Sicily

The Tigers had a super tall forward line with Riewoldt, Lynch, Balta & a resting ruck all inside 50. As a result, Sicily had to play a more accountable role and found less opportunities to peel off and intercept. Other opposition teams won’t play this many tall forwards, that means he should be freed to play his standard intercepting role. James offers excellent value and with the lack of cheap options in the backline he’s someone that every coach needs to consider regardless of the format.

Connor MacDonald

The year of expensive cash cows continues with Connor plying his craft across the game. He looks was a fantasy star as a junior and we saw glimpses of it as the game went on. He’s already been hyped for a round one debut, and did his chances no harm with this game. I believe the hawks will be pushing to get 50+ games into him, Jai & Josh as a midfield trio as quickly as possible. If named round one, he’s a good chance to get multiple games early.

Noteable Outs

Tom Mitchell & Jaeger O’Meara

Dustin Martin

Dusty played… He looked good, and with so many doubts on forward premos he could just be the safest building block in this line.

Hugo Ralphsmith

Much has been made about the lack of cows in 2022. As a result, anyone priced under $300k that looks like they’ll get games we need to seriously consider. He’s available to be picked as a MID/FWD but is playing predominantly off halfback. I’ve been impressed with his development in the offseason, and as good as he’s looked I still have a slight concern. That is he’s a possible sub candidate most weeks. If named one round, I can see plenty making room for him at F5 or F6.

Trent Cotchin

Not fantasy relevant, but when he’s fit and firing he’s so important to the Tigers structure. If he can get 20+ games then for those hoping for Richmond to miss finals again you might find yourselves disappointed.

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Jayden Short

Over the past few years Jayden has shown he’s a genuine top tier defensive premium. This match just sent up a massive flare around just how good he can be. If you were hot on him before this match, understandably nothing has changed.

Daniel Rioli

Seems to finally has found his feet in the Tigers defensive 6. I couldn’t touch him in salary gap formats, but late on draft day he could be a brilliant flyer.

#34 Most Relevant | Dustin Martin

2021 didn’t go to plan for Richmond or Dustin Martin. Fresh after recovering from a lacerated kidney, he’s got something to prove and a mantle to reclaim as the best player in the AFL.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Dustin Martin
Age: 30
Club: Richmond Tigers
Position: MID/FWD

2021 Highest Score: 
131 Vs Carlton (AFLFantasy)
158 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
164 Vs North Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2017)
184 Vs Western Bulldogs| SuperCoach (2020)

2021 Average: 
81.2 (AFLFantasy)
92.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $503,500
AFLFantasy Price: $682,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $692,800

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For Richmond and Dustin Martin, it was a frustrating campgain. It started promising with some dominant performances and aspirations of a premiership three pear and ended in horrific scenes with a lacerated kidney. The injury kept him in hospital, and unable to participate in any form of contact training until 2022.

We still saw plenty of dominant moments throughout the season that reminded football fans he’s still an elite talent. However, whenever Richmond did manage to get over the line, he provided some vital moments in the game.

Dusty averaged 81 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and scored four tons, five more scores over 80. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 93, scored five tons, three over 120 and an additional seven more above 80. So it’s not a bad season it;’s also not a tree season. And to be fair, he even had a couple of injury impacted games that have further dented his numbers.

Despite the challenging end, the season started on fire with a 131and 100 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeaam and 158 & 120 in SuperCoach. And for the high volume of coaches that owned him, they loved his start, especially if you traded into him via the suspended Patrick Dangerfield after round one. So maybe that scoring ceiling regression myth isn’t as factual after all?

What Martin offers fantasy coaches this year is something he hasn’t for a long time. That’s value. This is the lowest his starting average has been for the better part of a decade. Since 2013 to 2020 he’s averaged in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam 97, 97, 103, 107, 113, 92, 97 & 93 adjusted. While in SuperCoach it’s better, he’s averaged 102, 99, 105, 108, 119, 104, 100 & 100. Here’s what it looks like visually; he’s a picture of consistency!

It’s been a long time since Dustin and his Tigers have had something to prove. Since 2017 they’ve been one of the most dominant forces in modern AFL history. Richmond and even the most loyal faithful do know that the era is coming to an end, but the recruitment of veteran Robbie Tarrant suggests Richmond have put all the chips into one last big hoorah with the aging premiership core. For this to happen, it’ll take Dusty to get back towards his best, and at 30 years of age, that’s undoubtedly very easily achieved.

All Richmond track watchers have made numerous comments about Dustin Martin. Not just down a slightly slimmed-down look to a change in diet. But that the number one asset to his game in his strength and power are evident in all training drills. The Tigers have been very vocal about increasing his midfield minutes and not being as level in the split between midfield and forward. Should that unfold, we’re not just talking about a points jump of 10 per game but potentially 15-20. Should that eventuate, then starting Dusty might be one of the selections of the year.

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MY TAKE

I don’t think anyone is questioning the historical scoring pedigree of Dustin Martin. We know that he’s the most damaging pure footballer in the game on his day. More often than not, when he dominates, the Tigers win, and he posts strong fantasy footy digits. But what will this coming season hold for him? An average of 81 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam has him ranked tenth for averages and sixth for SuperCoach for forwards. This is important because after his firing tons in rounds one and two in the final fourteen games, he averaged 76 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 85 in SuperCoach. So even with a poor last few months, he’s still towards the top tier of options.

There seems a consensus across the fantasy community that Mitch Duncan, Tim Taranto and Josh Dunkley are the clear top three forwards in the game if they can stay fit. However, the diversity of opinion of who’s the next best five or six forwards can include 15 -20 different players depending on the format. The upside for those considering Dusty is that he is still ranked in the top areas of the forward line even off a frustrating season. So what happens if he has some scoring increase? Based on history, he’s a safe and durable 90-95 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 95-100 in SuperCoach. That should be enough to lock him as a top 10 forward.

Even getting back to just good level dusty will be enough to be in the conversation of top forwards. But I wonder if the most damaging days of fantasy scoring are behind him? Specifically, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam where it’s just pure volume and no scoring inflation due to impact. Over the past two seasons in these formats, he’s had just three games where he’s scored above 120, and that’s including making the 1.25 adjustment. So if the ceiling is gone, at least in those formats, he might be value, but he also might not burn you by passing on him as a starter and be a premium you can take on.

Dusty gets on a hot run every season, and if you can time owning him during that, it’ll offset any of the other games. For example, in 2020, between rounds 7-14 last year, he averaged an adjusted 105.3 in AFLFantasy and 114 in SuperCoach.The year prior, in 2019, in between rounds 9-15, he averaged 119 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 106 in SuperCoach. Every year Dusty this and pops a monster ceiling game. The trend for coaches is that it often happens after the first 6-7 weeks. of the season ;).

In AFLFantasy, there’s some value there. But for some coaches, it may not be enough, especially if the format allocate 1-2 ‘must have’ DPP’s like Josh Kelly was last year. I don’t see a vast number of DreamTeam coaches reaching for him. If anything, he’ll be an upgrade target as coaches look to back in Mitch Duncan, Tim Taranto, and Josh Dunkley early. Over his career, SuperCoach has been his format, and he has to be a consideration for a starting squad at the very least. For me, it doesn’t suit my current structure. But I’ve got an eye on him.

DRAFT DECISION

On draft boards, he’ll be someone’s F1. The question is, just how early? Especially after Mitch Duncan, Tim Taranto and Josh Dunkley are gone. In SuperCoach, I can see him leaving draft boards ranging from the third round and into no later than the fourth. In AFLFantasy, it’s probably sliding another ten picks. So from the early fourth to late fifth at the latest.

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The 5 Top Trade Targets For Dustin Martin

It was a horrible sight last round! The triple Norm Smith Medal Winner writhing in pain on the ground at Metricon stadium. Later, the club confirmed that he would miss the remainder of the season after suffering a kidney injury. Before this injury, Dusty was one of the most popular forwards in fantasy football. This season ending injury means he’s a must trade!

Each side is different and will have different trade priorities; I’ve decided to focus this article on like for like forward line only replacements. So here are my 5 Top Trade Targets For Dustin Martin.

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Shai Bolton

At his best, Dusty is the games most dynamic game breaker. While ‘replacing’ him as a player is impossible, Shai Bolton does possess some similar game breaking dynamics. Bolton, currently not ‘banging the door down with his scoring, but he’s been far from poor.

Between rounds 4 – 13 in AFLFantasy and DreamTeam averaged 98.7, including 4 tons, while in SuperCoach, he averaged 108 and had a scoring range between 96 -121 during this 8 game stretch. If Richmond is any chance of putting themselves deep into finals, I personally believe it’ll come off the back of a dynamic month of footy from Bolton. With no Dusty, he becomes the match-winner for Richmond. In my eyes, he’s the standout replacement if you own Martin.

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Jordan De Goey

JDG5 is one of the form forwards across the competition. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s averaging 109 in his last 5 and a monstrous 120 in the past three. In the last few rounds, he’s among the top 10 of total points performers and given Dusty’s quieter scoring patch, moving to the ‘hot hand’ forward could be a nice late season boost for your side.

In SuperCoach, it costs you about $50k to trade into him, and surprisingly his ownership is still at 10%. This is ridiculously low, considering his lowest score in the past four games is 114.

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Matthew Kennedy

You shouldn’t be surprised to see Matt Kennedy here. Ever since Carlton played him in his preferred role as a midfielder from round 14 he’s been sensational for his owners. A five game average of 93 in SuperCoach and 97 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam is a supreme return. Equally encouraging is that he’s shown moments of a ceiling with a season high score of 116.

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Patrick Dangerfield

His ownership numbers aren’t low and neither is his pricetag. But for those without Patrick Dangerfield he’s probably one of a handful of matchups you feel nervous being against. Already this year Danger has shown the ‘monster’ ceiling game is still within reach.

The injury to Jeremy Cameron did result (as expected) with Danger increasing his forward 50 minutes. However, if the Cats dominate opponents over the coming five weeks like they did last week then it won’t matter. What he might lack in disposals, he’ll likely make up with goals scored. This week they take on the injury riddled Tigers, the following week it’s the bottom of the table Kangaroos. Winning these games might all but stitch up a Cats top 4 spot, so I can’t see them taking the foot off the pedal.

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Tarryn Thomas

Recency bias after a monster game last weekend? Perhaps! But if you’ve watched North over the course of the season, to see the scoring ‘pop’ from Tarryn Thomas is of no surprise. Last weekends 126 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 108 in SuperCoach is off the back and 88 (SC) and 84 (AF). The week before that, he scored an 86 in (AF) and 96 (SC). Yes, the scoring isn’t ‘insane’ but if you need a unique then ‘TT’ isn’t the worst idea out there.

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Any others?

Ultimately, many of these guys above are the ‘value options.’ But, of course, the likes of Aaron Hall, Dayne Zorko or Jack Ziebell can be considered too if the salary isn’t a restriction for you.

In AFLFantasy, we do have a few additional options, Josh Kelly would’ve been the obvious top tier option, but given he’s got some question marks around availability, you can’t go near him. So possibly Scott Pendlebury is the next best available for you, or if you’re looking for a smokey, then Harry Schoenberg is coming off the back of a 113 & 83 and is priced at $481,000.

Upgrade Targets After Their Bye | Round 14

The multi bye rounds are over. We now have an additional eight teams with no more scheduled rests for the remainder of the season. So here’s a club by club breakdown of potential upgrade targets who have just had their bye round.

Of all the club write-ups, I think the Crows have the least potential ‘relevant picks.’ The move of Rory Laird into the midfield has been inspired, and his scoring has been prolific across the season. Across the formats, he is the #2 ranked defender in averages and by total points. In fact, he’s under 20 points shy of the top spot. If you don’t own him, the damage has been done. The only world I’d advocate for him as a ‘trade in’ target is if you need to minimise his impact against you in rankings or league battle.

Ben Keays has been a star for his owners! In the draft formats of UltimateFooty, his average draft position was 207. With an average of 109 to date, he’d easily make the podium of the top draft day picks of the year. What’s fantasy footy 101? Ask those who traded into Darcy Parish this past round. Sadly they know it well now. Buy low, sell high! I wouldn’t be buying stocks on Keays, he’s been great, but even with his low ownership, it’s not worth paying up for.

You either have Reilly O’Brien at R2 currently, or your planning on trading in Brodie Grundy ASAP. ‘ROB’ was only an option three weeks ago when Brodie went down injured. He isn’t someone I’d advocate for as an upgrade now. His previous 3 game average is an improvement on his season in total. But for the extra $100-$150k across the formats, I’d rather Grundy every day of the week.

It’s not an upgrade, but expect the Crows to give a handful of games to last seasons #11 pick Luke Pedlar. The tough clearance winner possesses explosive speed from traffic. He’s not a basement price midfield cow, but he might be a pulse to end the season.

Two weeks ago, Nick Haynes was an obvious ‘buy low’ premium. From Collingwood, coaches have another ‘obvious’ buy low pick up in the midfield. Scott Pendlebury is coming off the back of a 167 in SuperCoach and is priced at just over $424,000. He had an injury affected role change midseason, but since overcoming that hand injury in the past fortnight, he’s delivered consecutive 100’s. If you need a cheap M7 or M8, then Pendls is your man. He has a decade of averaging over 100 in this format.

He’s arguably even more tempting in AFLFantasy, where he’s recently picked up forward status. With scores of 104 & 98 in his past fortnight and priced at under $600,000, he’s an easy no brainer selection.

We spent plenty of time on our latest podcast discussing the urgency of when to trade into Brodie Grundy. My best encouragement is to go and listen to it. Ultimately the who (you trade out) and how you plan to get him determines whether or not I feel he’s a priority this week or not. Ideally, we’d all want him on our completed side.

Mr Consistency in our backline over the past few seasons has been Jack Crisp. With low scoring deviation, he’s certainly a player that has some appeal to coaches. Personally, I’d look for either someone that is a comparable performer but cheaper. Or someone at a similar price with a greater scoring ceiling.

Due to suspension Jordan DeGoey isn’t available to play for the Pies or our fantasy teams this weekend. But prior to the bye his previous three games we’d started to see the preseason midfield role eventuate. In his last three games in SuperCoach he’s scored 88, 70 & 115 with an average of 91. Not bad for a guy priced less than $100,000 upgrade from Harry Jones.

Similarly, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam his past three have been 109, 78 & 106 at an average of 97.7. He’s the ultimate definition of ‘buy low’ and while I get he can be frustrating to own, he’s still a high potential value F6 for coaches looking to finalise their team if cash is tight.

At the start of the season, it felt like one of the most obvious premiums we’d want in our forward lines would be Steele Sidebottom. For one reason or another, it’s been a patchy season from Sidey. He’s getting some midfield minutes, but what role does he hold under Robert Harvey? Best to wait a week or two to see before committing.

I’m a big fan of Andrew Brayshaw. I genuinely believe that he’s on the cusp of becoming one of the next big midfielder Uber premiums. He’s in a weird price where he’s not the crazy value of others, but not also the safe 110 of others at a slightly high price point. Still, he should be a consideration as an option.

The scoring of Luke Ryan certainly lends himself more to SuperCoach than other formats, but he’s still got the ability to get on a hot run of form everywhere. In SC, he’s averaging 110 in his past five, including two scores over 125. In just 8% of sides, sometimes paying up for something different is worth it.

The time to trade into Sean Darcy has come and gone. The two opportunities were when Matt Flynn was dropped when Darcy what at his basement. Or a month ago when Brodie Grundy was injured. Not now! Yep, even in AFLFantasy, where he’s an RUC/FWD. I couldn’t pay the $100,000 more to choose him over Pendls.

Clayton Oliver has been one of the best midfield picks of the season. However, I don’t believe he’s worth paying up for. Part of this is linked to the substantial value options we have across the midfield. Many of them covered off in this article. The other is that next week he comes about against the tagging nemesis Matt DeBoer in round 16 and also Mark O’Connor in round 23.

If the value is the name of the game and you’re keen on trading into a Demon, then Christian Petracca is the guy. In SuperCoach last year, he broke out with a 117. Currently, he’s priced 12 points per game off this based on the current season. However, in his past five, he’s averaging 109 and scoring variation between 96-130. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s a great financial option too. At his start of the season, a glance highlights his scoring potential, whereby in round six this year, he was averaging 115.8. He’s slowed since then, but it highlights his capacity.

With no Brodie Grundy for the past three games, chances are you already have Max Gawn. If not, you’re probably not in contention in either your leagues or overall rankings. That said, In my view, Gawn is clearly the top ruck for the rest of 2021 and is someone you’ll want to have.

Christian Salem isn’t a value pick. He’s not a ceiling pick. But it is a unique pick that’s on the safer side. He’s not for me, given the value we have and the ceiling guys we have. But he’s solid if you keen.

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The Tigers have a brilliant fixture run home for non Dustin Martin that might be enough of a reason to sway you to bring him into your side finally. Beyond his opening two rounds, he hasn’t hurt those who opted against him. Personally, given his high ownership, I’d encourage you to continue to go against him and look to another option, potentially even a teammate of his.

Heading into the final nine rounds of the season, coaches want to trade into premiums that can be a top-tier option. Bachar Houli has a proven history of going on hot runs of 110+. His upcoming opposition is as friendly as any other defender, so the only cause for concern is his poor durability over recent years. But on scoring potential, he’s as good as any.

If the injury history of Houli concerns you, then his teammate Jayden Short is certainly a comparable option. A seasonal average of 96 in SuperCoach & 92 in DreamTeam/Fantasy have him ranked in the upper tiers of defensive premiums.

The Tiger I personally like the most is Shai Bolton. He’s damaging through the midfield and inside forward 50. He’s still relatively unique, considering his multiple week injury layoff just over a month ago. In SuperCoach, he’s priced at an average of 97 but is averaging 109 in his past five. In fact, since round four, his lowest score is 96. Not bad for a player under $525k.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s performing equally as strong in our forward line. Since round four, he’s scored 4 tons (including 122) and has a low of 85. Not a bad run of 8 games, if you ask me. Shai offers four key ingredients that should be appealing to prospective owners. Scoring ceiling, low variable deviation, relatively low ownership and still some value for money. If he’s not on your watchlist, at the very least, your playing the game wrong.

Quite simply, Jack Steele is worth every cent. He’s a VC/C option every single week!

Brad Crouch is more of an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam selection and still offers some value. Two seasons ago at the Crows, he showed his ability to be a season, long 110 performer. In his last five games, he’s averaging 110, and in his previous three, he’s going at 123. He’s one of a handful of Saints that have been relevant fantasy prospects for us this year. Personally, as good an option as he is, I’d wait a week and grab Neale.

It’s starting to get late in the season for Rowan Marshall to be an option for you. Sadly injuries have damaged his season for fantasy coaches and the Saints. Even if he does play this week, many coaches are only one or two forward spots away at max. With options like Patrick Dangerfield, Toby Greene and even Shai Bolton all within range of him, you can’t pick him. The best thing about him is his DPP, but with some rookie RUC/FWD options getting games, its value has taken a marginal dip.

The move of Callum Mills into the midfield has seen him become a topline defensive premium for the year. And given how good he’s performing, his ownership numbers are scarily low in some formats. For example, he’s coming off the back of eight consecutive SuperCoach tons, and he has dropped under 90 in just one game all season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.

He’ll give you a great points return, but the real question beneath this especially for DreamTeam and SuperCoach players is this. What’s the value of a trade? Based on the amount you have remaining and current ‘completion level’ of your side will ultimately have an impact on whether he’s worth paying up for.

Jake Lloyd has been good without being great. Which, if we are honest, is a reflection of how amazing he has been over the past few seasons. An average of 108 in SuperCoach & 98 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam is nothing to sneeze at. So if you can afford to trade him in, you’ll be rewarded. But personally, if you’ve got that far, you might as well go all the way and grab Mills.

I’m aware that the title of this article is ‘upgrade targets.’ But Joel Amarety’s important enough to sides to need to be discussed in this article. His value is twofold. Firstly, a downgrade to him should generate the cash you need to make another upgrade. Second, his RUC/FWD positional creates great flexibility, especially if you own Callum Coleman-Jones or target Rowan Marshall as a final forward spot upgrade.

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Finding value to finish off our sides can be challenging, but West Coast champion Shannon Hurn is genuinely an option. Barring his injury affected round four clash against St Kilda (scored 6), he’s been delivering strong premium scores. Removing this early in game injury from his scoring, he’d be averaging 106 in SuperCoach and 100 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. To go with his dependable scoring, Hurn is incredibly unique. He’s in 2% or under of sides across the formats.

A picture of consistency over the past few seasons has been wingman Andrew Gaff. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s historically been a 105-110 midfielder and a 100-105 in SuperCoach. This year he’s currently averaging about 10-12 points per game beneath that.

The midfield of West Coast has been smashed with injuries, with all of Elliot Yeo, Tim Kelly and Luke Shuey all missing multiple games. With all either back or returning over the coming days, we should see Gaff recommence getting that silver service on the outside of the packs. With some luck, he could be the perfect ‘buy low’ candidate to complete your midfield.

While Gaff represents value, Elliot Yeo, for me, is the pick of the Eagles mids. Across the formats, he’s a proven historical performer of 105. Yeo has been building his fitness base after a long time out of the game. However, after match winning final quarter against Richmond, I’ve seen enough to suggest he’ll be able to get back somewhere near his best.

SuperCoach Weekend Wrap | Round 6

Injuries, injuries, injuries. What more needs to be said. It was the round for it.  In 13 years of playing this game I’m not sure I’ve seen a start quite like this. To have so many premiums out at one time, so early on in the season, it certainly feels unique this year. But in the words of the all wise and knowledgeable Conor McGregor, “An injury is not just a process of recovery, it’s a process of discovery.”

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This early on in the week it feels more like recovery; particularly for those coaches dealing with multiple outs. I feel for coaches I know who need to manage Josh Dunkley, Lachie Neale, and Dustin Martin all at the same time. Just like I feel for the poor bloke I know that traded Neale in about 10 minutes before the bounce. Ooft. Needless to say, it’s these three injuries that will be taking up the majority of the Supercoach conversion this week. 

To continue on with McGregor’s wisdom, it’s fair to say that we are now in a week of discovery. The opportunities we have before us for some unique points of difference in our teams makes this a fun week. If you’re still in the recovery stage, this might not sound so fun but you’ll get there. 

In my mind, we’ve got three places of opportunity. Or as I like to call it, POO.

First, is the opportunity to bring fresh blood into our forward line.

I will grant you, there aren’t many standouts here. 

One of the most popular trades will be Steele Sidebottom. He’s been increasingly finding form and numbers, and importantly he’s now priced under $500k. Toby Greene is another solid option, and is certainly being praised for his on-field maturity in the media these past few weeks. He’s the 4th best forward right now, priced at the $500k mark, and has 10% ownership. Tom McDonald and Shai Bolton have averaged decent numbers the past few weeks. I’m not personally looking at them, but you do you. 

Second, is the opportunity to repair/improve/change our ruck strategy.

Those who are still dealing with the Matt Flynn ruck strategy could use this time to move to a set-and-forget policy. We have no idea what Leon Cameron’s ruck policy is and whether Shane Mumford will come back sooner rather than later. This week can now be a time where we define our own ruck policy more clearly. 

If you’re not going to go to Gawn or Grundy then perhaps NicNat, Reilly O’Brien, or even Sean Darcy would do the job well. It might be a more conservative route, but then it could pay-off in the long run and give other options elsewhere. Again, you do you. 

Third, is the opportunity to bring some PODs, particularly in the midfield. 

As it stands I only have two of the top 10 midfielders right now. Yes, it concerns me. But I suspect there may be some players on this list that you don’t have either. Think Cam Guthrie, David Mundy, and Jarryd Lyons; all under 6% ownership. Other options outside of the top 10 include Touk Miller (0.6%), Jaeger O’Meara (1.5%), and Luke Parker (1.8%), who have averaged 105+ over the past few weeks. I mean, there’s more to add here too: Adam Trealoar (3.1%), Ollie Wines (1.6%), and Hugh McCluggage (2.2%), who are all scoring well and all able to be snatched up at a decent price. 

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Whatever your injury concerns may be this week I hope you can see this as a time of discovery, Conor McGregor would want you too. And I mean, you’ve got to do those recovery required rage trades too of course. Anyway, you do you. 

Till next week!

Ripe For The Picking | Round 5

One thing that separates good coaches from great coaches is that they aren’t just looking at trades for this week. Rather great coaches are looking multiple weeks ahead to be ready to be traded into their teams. In this new series, we look at players who this week and the following two weeks will have likely bottomed out in price and could be a tasty trade target for your side. Each week we’ll focus on the players in DreamTeam, AFLFantasy and SuperCoach you should be forecasting to bring into your side because they are ripe for the picking.

Priced at $531,900, Steele Sidebottom (MID/FWD) has had an up and down start to the season. As yet, he’s still yet to crack a score over 90. With a breakeven of 181, he’s still got a few weeks before his price flattens out. If he averages 90 over the next 3 weeks, he’ll bottom out at around $480,000, and he ripe for the picking heading into round 8.

Depending on Clayton Oliver’s scoring this week against Hawthorn, ‘Clarry’ is either one or two weeks away from his basement price. Priced at $612,000 and breakeven of 161, his round 3 score of 67 is about to fall out of his three game cycle. If we are lucky, we should be able to pick him up for under $600k, not bad for a guy who has scores of 122, 130 & 133 from three of his four games this year.

Over the past few seasons, Caleb Daniel has been a safe top, 10 defenders. But 2021 has seen some indifference to his scoring. He’s had just the one ton, and his score of 19 on the weekend was infuriating for owners. To compound the pain, he’s missing this week through suspension.

‘The Helmut’ has already dropped almost $80k from his starting price and will be a steal for coaches in three weeks once that suspension and score of 19 rolls through his price cycle. If non-owners get lucky, he’ll be a slight chance of dropping marginally under $400,000.

The wait to trade into Lachie Neale continues, especially given his top score for the year is 89. With a breakeven this week of 168, it could be anything from one to three weeks away before coaches jump on. If he bounces back to his best with a 130+ score this week and passes the ‘eye test’, then it might well be worth picking him up at around $550k. Should he have a quieter fortnight, his price could drop right towards $500k, making him an almost impossible to say no option.

Both of Jake Lloyd and Marcus Bontempelli have breakevens just over 150, but in any game both have shown both historically and in 2021 that a score of that ceiling is right in their wheel house. Both have dropped around $30k from their starting price and don’t really fit the ‘bye low’ tag.

Andrew Brayshaw started like a house on fire with scores of 125 & 132. However, the last 2 weeks of scores have seen him now be priced $30k under his starting price and with a breakeven of 186. This week he plays the Crows, and potentially a Ben Keays stopping job awaits. The following week it might be Kangaroo Kayne Turner who did a job on Rory Laird last week.

If you believe he’s good enough to work through the tag pressure he’s currently copping and that he’ll be able to score 110+ for the remainder of the season, then at potentially him being priced at $457k in 2 weeks, he might be your preferred target.

70% of SuperCoach players own Dustin Martin. After back to back scores in the ’80s, the 30% of coaches without him might consider him their prime target over the coming weeks. This week the $545,900 MID/FWD has a breakeven of 146, so a score of 110 will see him drop less than $15k.

We know Dusty loves the big stage and with big matches against probable top 8 teams Geelong, Melbourne, St Kilda and Western Bulldogs over the next month. We might see a return to his round 1 & 2 scoring. You’d certainly want to be on the right side of his scoring if he does.

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In AFLFantasy, given the way the prices cycle through and adjust each week it feels like on any given week any premium is just ‘a week away’ from bottoming out. That said, there are a number of guys that we should consider as by low targets.

In 2-3 weeks, Sam Menegola should be right in the coaches sweet spot. Having already dropped $66k, he’s got another $50k to go before being ripe for the picking around $670,000. Andrew Brayshaw will also be at a similar price point in 2 weeks, and after starting the season with a 105 & 127, he’s shown he’s capable of delivering premiums scores.

Last weekends score of 20 was clearly an aberration for Caleb Daniel. After scores of 111, 86 & 89 this season, he’s clearly a top defensive premium. For non-owners, a combination of this poor score + one week suspension means that in two more matches, he’s forecast to drop another $50k and be priced just under $60,000.

One caveat. In round seven, the Bulldogs play Richmond, and opposition defenders have feasted on fantasy points against the Tigers for years. So it might be worth jumping a week early and that even though he could be ‘$20k’ cheaper the following week, you might have also banked yourself a nice ton.

If Lachie Neale continues to show signs that his back injury is playing little to no impact on his movement, then last seasons best midfielder must be considered. With a breakeven this week of 133 and having dropped already almost $200k from his starting price, it’s getting close to time and picking up the Brownlow Medal winner.

Josh Kelly has a breakeven of 131 and has already leaked $85,000. However, the community hopes that AFLFantasy announces him as part of the upcoming DPP changes and award forward status. If he does, then he’s someone that you should consider. Even with this weird role, he’s still scored 3 times over 90. And given his historical ceiling, that’s a tasty forward proposition.

Our ruck twin towers in Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy appear to have hit the basement. Brodie Grundy has only dropped $15k from his starting price and with a breakeven of 120 agasinst West Coast it’s certainly achievable. The fortnight after The Magpies play the ruckless Bombers and Suns. It could be a painful fortnight for over half the comeptition that don’t own him based on that fixture.

While Max Gawn has dropped $78k, his price tag of $886,000 leaves him with a breakeven of 113. Given he’s averaging 125 in his last 3, it’s looking likely this is as cheap as we might get the Demons skipper.

That might not be the same for Andrew Gaff, but if it’s not, he’s certainly close to it. Outside of his 154 a fortnight ago, the Eagles wingman hasn’t shown AFLFantasy coaches much to be excited by. With him now priced at $745k, that a total price change of $86k. His breakeven of 109 has him likely not moving the bank balance much on either side.

If you were considering Gaff, I’d encourage you to lower your gaze a little more as I believe there is a better option cheaper. Adam Treloar is back playing as a centre bounce midfielder and has scored 106 & 127 in the previous fortnight. Having prodded $92,000 from his starting price, you can now pick him up at $720k with a breakeven of 90. If you have confidence that it won’t be him that’s stuck in Luke Beveridge’s weekly game of ‘you won’t get midfield time even though you’re a midfielder, then pick him.

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Last season, coaches loved the scoring consistency of Sam Menegola. However, in 2021 it’s been a slow start due to injuries. With the unachievable breakeven of 192, you’ve got a few weeks of watching his cash leak before considering him. If he averages 80 over the next month, he could drop as much as $150k from his current price and be nearing the $600,000 range.

If the former Docker and Hawk can get himself up to full fitness and the Cats get their game style going, he’s certainly got the history of showing he can match it with some of the best midfielders.

I’ve already highlighted Andrew Brayshaw in the SuperCoach section, but he’s well worth a mention here too. At his best, he could average 100-110. But so far this season, he’s delivered 2 scores worthy of that while a further two have been in the territory of cash cows. In a fortnight, he’ll be about $50-$60k cheaper and a unique upgrade target.

Western Bulldogs pair Marcus Bontempelli and Caleb Daniel are both $50k cheaper than starting price and have breakevens over 150. When they get on a hot streak, both can match it with the top performing players in their line. In 2-3 weeks, and if they show us something, it could be time to jump on.

After his first ton of the season last week, it’s almost time to get Steele Sidebottom. His price of $782,600 probably has another $30,000-$40,000 more to drop given his breakeven of 149. However, after that, there are 2 reasons why I’d be quickly targetting him.

Firstly, the injury to Taylor Adams should see this premiership Magpie increase his midfield presence and responsibility. Second, In round 7 & 8, they play Gold Coast & North Melbourne. Both teams are leaking DreamTeam scoring to opposition sides.

It’d take a role change back into the midfield to make non-owners convinced. Next week, Josh Kelly will be under $700,000 and have dropped almost $100,000 from his starting price. Three of his past four weeks, he’s scored 90-91, and that’s without minimal midfield minutes. If his centre bounce attendances are up this week, then that might be all we need to see to jump on this midfielder who’s proven he can go 110+ over multiple seasons.

Both Dustin Martin and Clayton Oliver look set to be topline selections in their lines of eligibility. With breakevens of 139 & 140, they could each hit their season low prices. It might only be around $50k cheaper than starting prices, but barring an injury, both rarely drop enough poor scores to leak cash.

You can probably throw Tom Mitchell and Jack Crisp into that mix too, but it’s the price of Lachie Neale that coaches must keep an eye on. Last years Brownlow medal winner already dropped over $158,000, and with a breakeven of 122, he’s starting to flatline in price. Over the past 2 weeks, he’s scored 103 and 96, and should he score like that again this week, then at $730k, he’d be ripe for the picking, especially if he continues to look like he’s overcoming his back injury.

AAMI Community Series Review | Magpies Vs Tigers

This was a different game to last night, but there was plenty of entertainment and fantasy interest. Richmond jumped out of the blocks, but Collingwood lifted before the scoreboard got away from them. The game’s intensity levels were up and down, and it did feel like a practice game for the most part, but the final 10 minutes were thrilling as the Tigers just held on. Plenty of talking points, so let’s get to it.

Jordan De Goey: A man that has been dubbed a potential Dusty 2.0 may finally be able to honour that comparison this season. De Goey was huge tonight, playing up the field and impacting the play all over the ground. His numbers matched his impact with 27 touches, 11 marks, 5 clearances and 2 goals. He sent a scare through the Collingwood camp late coming off the ground looking proppy but thankfully returned unharmed. He’s ready and will be a worthy selection this year.

Brodie Grundy: The big fella didn’t look all that interested for most of the night and had his hands full with Nankervis early. He was more involved late once Nank had hit the showers and will surely show more urgency once the real stuff starts. The main concern here was how functional Collingwood looked with Grundy, Cameron and Cox all in the same line up. Grundy is still the main man in the middle when the game is on the line but honestly, it’s hard to see him recreating his 2018-19 scoring if the three talls all play.

Jack Crisp and Brayden Maynard: I’ve lumped these two together because they both look like playing the same fantasy friendly roles as last year and are both viable options once again down back. They had 29 and 24 touches respectively and were both frequently involved in link up plays exiting the defensive 50. Maynard did finish the game with ice on his lower leg after a nasty knock but should be fine.

Jeremy Howe: It was great to see the high flyer return from the serious knee injury he suffered last year and get through unscathed. He played the familiar role off half back and looked pretty good for his 20 touches in only 67% game time. He only took 3 marks but showed great spirit in one play that stood out. Running out from full back, Howe kicked the ground instead of the ball and turned it over. He chased the ball down and laid a big tackle winning a free and showing the old legs are good to go for another season. Could be a shrewd pick.

Isaac Quaynor: Just when you think Collingwood have enough run and dash off half back, this guy puts in a performance like this. Quaynor was clean, composed and put himself in all the right places helping to repel many Richmond attacks. He finished with 23 touches and, entering his third season, is primed for a breakout season.

Brayden Sier: On our watchlist since Treloar’s departure, Sier really grew into the game tonight and showed plenty to suggest he could play good consistent footy in Collingwood’s midfield. He contributed across all four quarters and finished with 22 touches and 4 tackles. The role is his for the taking and if he can take it with both hands, is very tastily priced.

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Just quickly…

Scott Pendlebury: It’s just year in, year out with this guy so it was no surprise that he was huge again tonight. 24 touches and a game high 9 tackles for the fantasy legend and yet another 100 plus average across the formats is on the cards.

John Noble: Yet another decent defender option for the Pies and a good game from him tonight too with 20 touches, 5 marks and 4 tackles. Unfortunately, I think there’s too many ahead of him but a great choice in Drafts.

Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox: We’re not going to pick these guys, but their output is important because of the impact on Grundy as noted earlier. They were huge in the second half, both finishing with 3 goals apiece, and were crucial in Collingwood nearly pinching the win.

Steele Sidebottom: Yikes, last year’s number 1 forward went off early with what we are being told is calf awareness. How could you not already be aware of your calves? Anyway, fingers crossed it was just precautionary, especially for those that nabbed him early in Drafts.

Josh Daicos: There’s been a bit of hype around this son of a gun this pre-season but tonight he didn’t justify it. Matched up on Dusty early gave him an opportunity to learn from the best and although I wouldn’t put a line through him, I’ve cooled on him.

Oliver Henry and Trey Ruscoe: Both showed signs at times but if I had to pick one for round 1, it’d be Henry. He only had 6 touches, but his 5 marks showed he has good awareness for a kid, and with the injuries mounting, is a good chance to debut against the Bulldogs. Ruscoe was ok in patches but was a bit too fumbly and I’d be surprised if he keeps his spot.

Jayden Short: Goodness me, where did that come from?? If that doesn’t shout top 6 defenders this year, then I don’t know what does. I don’t want to overreact to a preseason game but Short looked like short circuiting the stats machine towards the end there. 43 touches, 35 of which were kicks, and 12 marks are crazy numbers. His AF/RDT score of 171 was the second highest in a pre-season match in the last 10 years. Once we’ve calmed down, though, we need to work out if this was just a bit of March madness or is Short about to step into the elite fantasy category?

The short answer is both. He has been building his fantasy game steadily over the last couple of years in Houli’s shadow, but I don’t see him being afforded the same amount of space as tonight in a regular season game. Don’t be too swayed by tonight but if you like him, put him in and he won’t disappoint.

Josh Caddy: Now this one I AM putting down to March madness. Caddy was taking uncontested marks all over the place and, if it wasn’t for Short, would’ve been the fantasy story of the night for the Tigers.

He had 27 touches from his 11 marks and kicked a goal for good measure. Bump him up in your Draft ratings if you were impressed tonight but don’t expect him to become relevant in salary cap comps.

Dustin Martin: Did as he pleased for most of the night and as usual, his ball use and strength was first class. He had 23 touches from three quarters in what was a ho-hum performance. He’s not as prolific a scorer as he used to be but still an assured pick in our forward lines.

Callum Coleman-Jones: It was great to get another look at this guy tonight as we haven’t seen him since his one and only game in the seniors in 2019. I thought he really took his opportunity collecting 12 touches and kicking what ended up being the winning goal.

Standing at 200cms, Coleman-Jones would be a great foil for Nankervis in the absence of Ivan Soldo and could be a handy DPP ruck/forward cash cow for us once his AFL imposed suspension ends.

Just quickly…

Shai Bolton: Was quiet with just the 16 touches but did show flashes of what he can do. A dynamic player when he’s up and going and still worth considering in the forward line, particularly in Draft.


Toby Nankervis: A popular R2 option this year and he showed enough in just 35% game time with 8 touches and 8 hitouts. He did a great job of negating Grundy’s influence and looks set for a solid year.

Riley Collier-Dawkins and Will Martyn: Both got a bit of the ball when they came on but it was hard to get a read on them with such little game time (39% and 21% time on ground). The fact that they got a run with the reigning premiers means they should be close to senior action this year, particularly Collier-Dawkins who has been knocking on the door for some time now.

#20 Most Relevant | Dustin Martin

In the past two years, it’s two premierships and two Norm Smith medals for Dustin Martin? What does 2021 hold for him and for fantasy coaches that select him?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Dustin Martin
Age: 29
Club: Richmond
Position: MID/FWD

2020 Highest Score: 
105 Vs Essendon (AFLFantasy)
184 Vs Western Bulldogs (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
164 Vs North Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2017)
184 Vs Western Bulldogs | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average: 
74.6 (AFLFantasy) | 93.25 (Adjusted Average)
100.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $541,600
AFLFantasy Price: $713,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $689,600

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Another year and another Dustin Martin Norm Smith Medal. Despite not being at his prolific peak across the season, Dusty has proven once and for all he’s among the best finals players in AFL history.

He was cruising in third gear for the majority of the home and away season, despite that he still ranked 8th in the AFL for contested possessions, 9th for goal assists and 15th for total disposals.

In SuperCoach he had a slower start than owners would’ve liked. With just one ton and multiple scores below 80 and averaging 89. However, in the next 7 weeks, he scored 5 tons including that career best 184 to average 116 between round 7-13. The 2020 season ended with him averaging 100, scoring 7 tons and 4 scores below 80.

AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 74 (adjusted93), consisting of 2 tons and 5 additional scores between 90-99. Across both formats, he ranked top 5 among all forwards for points and average.

2020 was a similar output on his 2019 season. In AFLFantasy, he averaged 97 across the season. It was made up of ten tons with five scores of 128 or higher. He also had some of the lowest ceiling scores of his recent career with six scores under 80 with a seasonal low of 59.

For SuperCoach season saw him miss an average of over 100, the first time since 2014. It wasn’t by much with an average of 99.9. Across the season he had 11 scores over 100 with three 120 or above. In addition to getting hundreds in 50% of games, he added four scores between 90-99.

You need to go back to 2012 for the last time Dustin Martin failed to average 90 or higher across all game formats. Please take a look at it from a visual perspective.

*2020 is based off AFLFantasy’s x1.25 of average

To pair with this high scoring capacity and consistency is his durability. Dustin Martin doesn’t miss games of footy. Over the past seven seasons of AFL, he’s missed just 4 games. Incredible durability and availability during this time. A selection of Dusty is a reliable scoring safety net for coaches again in 2021.

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MY TAKE

A safe pick can often be presumed as vanilla or lazy pick by some in the fantasy football community. However, I don’t see it this way. Sometimes the safest move is the best move for your team.

Picking Dustin Martin in your forward line is a safe move. Any bad scores he may deliver will be balanced out with a few monster scores across the season. So as long as you don’t panic, he’ll reward you. SuperCoach is certainly his preferred format, but he still has plenty to offer in AFLFantasy and DreamTeam.

I believe there is one reason why we do not see Dustin Martin in more starting squads. He’s not a value pick, neither is he a captaincy option. Rather what you pay for, is likely what you are to get. Fantasy coaches are scampering to stretch the salary cap more than ever before and finding it harder to justify paying for a premium, that isn’t a weekly captaincy consideration.

Sometimes looking at a player’s numbers can say two entirely different things to different people. For some, they look at his 2019-2020 scores and believe they can’t go without him. While others will look at the same data and choose he can be missed. With Dusty, confirmation bias will have potentially an even greater sway in the decision to pick or pass.

Like many AFL teams, they lost the home ground advantage. But for Richmond and Dusty, the MCG has been a fortress since 2017. Over his first 12 games before the multi bye round the Tigers plays 8 games at the home of football. That’s a handy start for the reigning Norm Smith medalist.

The Tigers are part of the 6 teams taking round 13 off. While it’s not as painful as other rounds, it still does require some planning to navigate well. In your forward line, the only other premiums to consider is Josh Dunkley and Dayne Zorko. In Part how you rank Dusty compared to these two will inform whether you start, upgrade or pass on him.

History says that at some stage during the season he’ll go on a hot streak of scoring for a few months. The question isn’t if, but rather when? Answer that, and you can time that right, then you’ll be ahead of the pack.

DRAFT DECISION

For the second season running Dustin Martin will fly off early in draft boards as someones F1. The question is just how early? In SuperCoach I can see him leaving draft boards ranging from the late second round and into no later than the fourth. In AFLFantasy, it’s probably sliding another 5 picks. So from the early third to late fourth at the latest.

In 2021 securing a top tier F1 is coming with a premium, and with one of his scoring and durability, it’ll justifiably cost you an early round selection.

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Best Buys In SuperCoach And AFL Fantasy| Round 11

The festival of football continues, and for fantasy football coaches we’ll have under 24 hours between lockout lifting and the upcoming round commencing. To help coaches through round 11, let’s look at the players that are ripe for the picking and ready to be traded into your side.

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Defenders

The best premium defender to trade into your team for the second week in a row is Geelong Tom Stewart. Even though he is still to have a week off with a bye round and he was down on performance last week. I still think he’s the best bet if you have to trade a defender in this week. The positive for buyers is that his low score has just made him more attainable, so if you were keen last round, but could get him, see the positives. Buy now!

To be truthful, this isn’t the round to target defensive premiums. In just a few days a value trade of Zac Williams or getting the one of the Swans pair in Callum Mills or Jake Lloyd post-bye is a much more potent pick. That said if I had to make a recommendation, then it would be either Shannon Hurn or Luke Ryan. Both have had moments of scoring brilliance, but have also had multiple games where scoring has been below par. At their prices, there is minimal risk, but honestly, I’d be looking elsewhere.

Sam Docherty started thew year on fire, but has slowed a little over the last month. If you didn’t own him you can be in one of two schools of thought. Firstly, you went against the popular pick for a reason and given his low scoring of late you should continue to back yourself in and go against the most popular defender in the game. Conversely, he’s now priced similarly to what he started the year and while his current scoring trend isn’t great you know what he can do. In SuperCoach he was averaging 129 after the first four games and 97 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. It’s a defensive trade to bring him in, but given what he’s shown it could be inspired.

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Midfield

One of the most popular owned midfielders in all forms of the game is Carlton Skipper Patrick Cripps. Due to a variety of circumstances, his output this year hasn’t been what initial owners were hoping. However, a price drop of $100,000 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and almost $150,000 in SuperCoach is an exciting prospect to consider. While he’s value in all formats, it’s SuperCoach that he certainly is one that most excites. Priced at $488,500 and coming off his first ton (149) in a month of footy. A breakeven of 68 means now is the time to pick him up as he comes up the Eagles, Dockers and Suns in his next three.

Another midfielder off the bye is Tom Mitchell. Anyone that has placed fantasy football of any format for more than two seasons knows the damaging scoring potential of ‘Titch.’ In SuperCoach, he’s down about $62,000 on starting price, and with an average of 114 and only one score below 95 all season it’s hard to see a downside. Especially, seeing as though he’s scored five tons from his past six matches including a season-high 164 the week before the bye. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he hasn’t quite lived up to the hoped return given he’s had only three scores over 80.

Given that about 50% of DreamTeam and AFLFantasy coaches own him, it hasn’t been as devastating to coaches rankings. The positive for buyers in that of his two tons scored from the year; they’ve come inside his past four matches. Given the seriousness of his broken leg, he was always going to be a slow starter. Is now the time to jump on? In DreamTeam his price has dropped $50k, and he has a breakeven of 61, while in AFLFantasy, his breakeven is 59. Safe to say if you want some bacon now ios the time to get on Titch.

Mitch Duncan still provides value, and last week even after a slow start managed to squeeze a 90+ score across the formats. Speaking of value West Coast pair Luke Shuey, Tim Kelly and Elliot Yeo are still priced below their output. However, if you’ve got some clash to splurge, perhaps from injured Adam Treloar then maybe Andrew Gaff is more your fancy. He flew out of the gate this year, averaging 102 in DreamTeam/AFLFantasy and 121 in SuperCoach over the opening four games of the year. Since then he’s averaged 87 SC and 75 AF/DT in the last five. Since dropping $70K+ off his initial price, he still presents the value, and with plenty of games at home, he could be the perfect pickup. Just beware a potential Ed Curnow run with the role this week.

At the start of the year, I wrote about Nat Fyfe in the 50 Most Relevant. In it, I spoke about Fyfe being a damaging scorer, but having questions over the physical ability to get through the season without injury. As 2020 owners can attest, that trend has continued. This year he’s already missed multiple games. While Fyfe is value, and he is a proven performer. However, the history of missing games due to injury is starting to make him too difficult a player to trade into your team midseason. For me, he remains as a player that I’m happy to consider in my starting squad, but not an upgrade target. He’s every chance of missing further matches based on current historical trends.

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Rucks

Have we not learnt anything this year? That value rucks in 2020 have worked out for a week or two, but nothing more. Moving away from the 3G’s is filled with risk. Todd Goldstein, Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy are far and above the best ruck candidates of the year. As good as Tim English or Marc Pittonet and even Sam Naismith may have been at their price, they only delivered the scores required for a few matches.

All that said, if you need a ‘value’ ruck then Sam Draper is the obvious candidate. He rucked solo against the Giants and the week earlier looked more than comfortable role sharing with Tom Bellchambers. If you are considering dropping down to Draper, the key is to nail the other premium upgrades that freed up cash allows you.

If you wanted a unique, but more expensive candidate, then St Kilda’s Rowan Marshall might be it. Over the past three weeks in SuperCoach, he has scored 160, 90 and 143. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s posted 95, 82 and 82. It’s still not matching with the big boys, but he’s the closest we’ve got.

To be fair, NicNat is a genuine option in SuperCoach. Two scores over 135 showcase his scoring potential. However, with four scores between 84-87 his limited game time will always limit his scoring output in certain games. So while he’s an option, it’s not one I’d advocate for.

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Forwards

If you play SuperCoach and don’t own Jy Simpkin this is the week to pick him up. At the end of round 6 he was averaging 119 and was ranked inside the top 10 for total points scorers. An ankle injury is the primary cause of his poor scores over the last few weeks. However, last round against the Cats in the final three quarters he started to get back to his scoring best. At under $400k and as a DPP MID/FWD there is zero risk in this selection. Jump on

Over the past few years, some players have shown a trend that they start the year scoring slow before tearing it up on the run home. One of these players is Dustin Martin, and the trend is already beginning to show again in 2020. Last year he had just one AFLFantasy/DreamTeam ton and two in SuperCoach over the opening seven rounds. However, from round eight in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam the following six weeks, he scored 135, 109, 105, 102, 140 & 128. While in SuperCoach it was 128, 92, 113, 97, 108 and 100. Focussing back on 2020 he’s coming off the back of some of his top scores of the year.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s scored 90, 100 and 81 in his past three making his three-round average of 90 placing him as the second most from forward in those competitions. In SuperCoach he’s coming off the back off a 108, 186 & 111.
Currently, he’s cheaper than breakout player Andy Brayshaw in all formats of the game. If you want to own Dusty, this is the week to do it before his price skyrockets!

It’s one I’m a big fan of in SuperCoach, and that is trading in Connor Rozee. Before you lose it at me, please hear me out. Including this week we’ll have a likely four more rounds of ‘byes’ meaning another best 18 scoring rounds. These are perfect for players who have a high scoring variance like Connor. Yes, his floor is putrid, three scores between 30-39 are not wanted. But in the best 18 formats, these low scores should fall out of your team. Don’t look at the downside; look at the upside. For less than $100,000 you can move injured Sam Sturt to Rozee. Cast your mind back to the opening two games of the year where he scored 125 & 145, that’s the type of ceiling you need in best 18. While in the fuller scoring rounds, he becomes a good scoring bench option. No downside at this price.

In the same vein, Chad Wingard offers plenty of potential upside across all formats of the game. However, my only caution is that his big scores came when he was either getting significant midfield time on he kicks a bag of goals. In a best 18 format I don’t mind him in SuperCoach especially, you’d have to own Jy Simpkin and the other dominant forwards of the year in Lachie Whitfield and Christian Petracca.