Tag: Hawthorn Hawks

#10 Most Relevant | Tom Mitchell

Last year it was the Tom Mitchell of old. But under a new coaching regime, will his best scoring days be behind him or are they still ahead of him?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Mitchell
Age: 28
Club: Hawthorn Hawks
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score: 
171 Vs Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
157 Vs Collingwood (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
195 Vs GWS | AFLFantasy (2018)
192 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2018)

2021 Average: 
115.5 (AFLFantasy)
117.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $638,100
AFLFantasy Price: $969,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $985,600

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Ever since Tom Mitchell made his debut in 2013 at Sydney, we got a glimpse at his fantasy pedigree. That season he averaged 90in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 86 in SuperCoach. Since then, he’s been one of the most prolific fantasy players of the modern era. By the time his AFL career comes to a close, he’ll be remembered just as fondly as Gary Ablett, Dane Swan and Tom Rockliff as one of the greats of this game.

In 2021 we saw the full reemergence of ‘Titch’ back to his former glory as a fantasy footballer and a dominant midfielder. Last year in the league, he ranked first for handballs, disposals, effective disposals and uncontested possessions per game. He’s not only one of the most dominant ball-winning midfielders, but he’s also one of the most nerve-racking players to come up against in a league match if he’s unique against you.

His AFLFantasy season was brilliant in totality but spectacular when you look into the more refined timing. Over the year, he scored nineteen tons, ten of them above 120 and five over 130. He had just three scores under 100 all year and nothing dropping below 71. Before the Hawks bye round, he averaged 105.1. However, in the final eleven games of the year, he averaged 126 and didn’t let his scores fall below 105. He’s ranked fifth overall for averages and points, with only Jack Steele, Touk Miller, Jarryd Lyons and Jack Macrae.

This scoring pattern is similar in SuperCoach. He ranked eighth for total points and ninth for averages last year. It consisted of seventeen tons; nine were over 120, eight over 130 and a season-high score of 171. Entering into the Hawks round twelve byes, he’d scored just six tons and was going at an average of 105. From round thirteen onwards, he averaged 128.6, and his lowest score was 110.

What has got coaches so excited is that these final eleven games of the year reflect what he did back in 2018, where he averaged 129 across the formats and set fantasy footy records. Since 2015 he’s averaged between 106-129 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 103-129 in SuperCoach. So from a visual perspective, it looks like this.

Can he get back to this 2018 scoring for 2022? He did for 50% of the year just gone. Because if he can climb back anywhere near that, not only is he ten points per game of value, he’ll also end up as the top-scoring option in every format comfortably.

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MY TAKE

You don’t have to be among the best fantasy football coaches to recognise that Tom Mitchell’s scoring ability across formats is unrivalled. For multiple years and at clubs, he’s shown just how destructive a player he can be. When we consider fantasy footballers, they can destroy your season if you don’t own them. ‘Titch’ is a certainty in that category. It’s for that very reason that coaches will agonise right up until around one about whether or not they start him in their side. Getting on the wrong side of the equation will be a season ruining move. While being on the right side will set you up for immediate success.

For the first time since joining the Hawks, Hawthorn has some serious uncertainties. Both in the cattle used and the clubs game style. A team’s style is refined under any new coach, and some players are used in different ways. But, at the same time, others find favour in the eyes of a new coach and get opportunities that weren’t previously afforded to them.

Does the midfield mix at Hawthorn get drastically turned over? And to what extent? Under Sam Mitchell, will it be a full blooding of the kids like Jai Newcombe, James Worpel, Josh Ward, Finn Maginness and Connor MacDonald? If that’s the case scoring regression for Titch is almost imminent.

Will Tom Mitchell still be allowed to roam and get plenty of uncontested ball? Or does the Hawks adjust the style of play and look for a more direct avenue to ball movement? Sadly, with only one practice match and one community series clash, we’ll get limited games against the opposition to understand better. Furthermore, teams in these games often don’t apply the same defensive pressure and emphasis. So even with what we do get to see, it might be an entree to what the season proper holds.

I have zero doubts that his run of triple-figure averages will cease; even with a proposed regression, he still will get enough of the pill to be a fantasy premium. I’m also convinced that he will still be a primary piece in the midfield. In reality, it’s where he’s at his best, and it’s in Hawthorn’s best interest to allow him to play there. If you purchase him at his starting price, he must average 115-120 for the season to be a selection worth taking early on?

What’s his upside? He goes back to being the best scoring player in the game. What’s the downside? He slides back to a 110 averaging player. That’s not much of a downside, If I’m being honest. I’m starting in DreamTeam, considering starting in AFLFantasy and upgrading target in SuperCoach.

DRAFT DECISION

The format you draft in might not alter his M1 status, but it might determine where you could select him on draft day. For example, in AFLFantasy scoring drafts, I forecast Tom Mitchell will be selected inside the first handful of selections. In SuperCoach leagues, he could find himself sliding to as late as an early second-round pick, but he is still someone I see as a popular first-round pick, even if it’s later in the opening round.

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#22 Most Relevant | James Sicily

Before succumbing to a season-ending ACL, James Sicily was on track for delivering coaches a third consecutive premium season. After a tasty discount, is Sicily the prime value pick in your starting squad?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: James Sicily
Age: 27
Club: Hawthorn Hawks
Position: Defender

Career Highest Score: 
135 Vs Essendon | AFLFantasy (2018)
163 Vs Sydney | SuperCoach (2020)

SuperCoach Price: $448,100
AFLFantasy Price: $510,00
AFLDreamTeam Price: $473,700

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Not much went the way of the Hawks in 2021. Arguably it all started to go pear-shaped late in 2020 when James Sicily went down with an ACL injury that didn’t just end his 2020 season but ultimately saw him absent from all of 2021. Whenever a player misses large chunks of time, we can quickly forget certain players’ abilities. When it comes to Sicily, he is elite in so many areas. He possesses the rare ability to control the game from behind the ball with his elite marking, and his decision making by foot makes him a valuable asset for the Hawks. He’s elite in for kicks, contested marks, uncontested marks and rebound 50’s.

For the better part of three seasons, James had been a premium defender for coaches across all game formats. In 2018 he averaged 95.5 in AFLFantasy, scoring five tons, including his personal best 135. While in SuperCoach, he scored nine tons, four over 120 and averaged 105. During the 2019 season, he played every game, averaged 84 in AFLFantasy and had seven scores of 100 or more. Again, for SuperCoach, he averaged 95 and scored nine tons.

While before injury in 2020, he was averaging 103 in SuperCoach from his eleven games, he scored five tons, four of them over 120 and two were 140+. He had an additional three scores between 80-99. Over in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 69.4 (adjusted 83); it featured one pure ton and 88 a 95 plus two additional scores over 70.

In short, we’ve got multiple seasons of data than before the injury; he’s a consistent 85-95 scoring defender in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 95-105 in SuperCoach. The positive for prospective owners is he’s priced nowhere near that range. DreamTeam is at an average range of the mid-’50s, which means coaches could have a value pick with up to 40 points per game instilled. In AFLFantasy, his price point is with players averaging in the mid-’60’s, providing 30 points per game of value based on his career-high averages. While finally in SuperCoach, he’s priced in the low 80’s and providing coaches 20 points per game based on what he was delivering in 2020.

James Sicily is a proven premium defender across all formats and has tremendous value based on his proven scoring abilities. But the final sweetener in the deal for him is the Hawthorn bye round. The Hawks are one of the six-team rested in round fourteen. This is the perfect round for a stepping stone. Here coaches get optimal onfield scoring weeks and the full view of the top premiums to pursue for the final few months of the season. Sicily, if he’s scoring well but not enough to be a premium, he could be moved at his bye to Jake Lloyd, Caleb Daniel or Tom Stewart coming off the rest.

Coming back to the knee injury in October last year, Sicily had already entirely recovered from his ACL rehabilitation. This means he’s already been able to complete everything asked of him in the preseason. So Sicily isn’t striving to be fit by round one; instead, he’s banging the door down and is ready to go.

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MY TAKE

If you cast your mind back to Jarrod Witts, who was added earlier in the 50 most relevant, you’ll recall one essential thing. Players returning from ACL’s almost without exception all return with some scoring regression. It happens repeatedly; players take time to get back to their best coming off serious injuries. And sometimes, they never can recapture their previous bests.

Thankfully, James Sicily doesn’t have to deliver the 95-105 range season. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s a genuine stepping stone. That means, for the coaches needing this structured style of player, he could be the perfect balanced approach of cash generation and scores on the field. The stakes are a little higher in SuperCoach. You need to be confident he can go 90 minimum to start with. 

With DPP’s coming into the games of SuperCoach & DreamTeam, it means our defensive (and forward) premiums must withstand the potential variance of higher scoring options entering into the line midseason. You can only start premiums you are convinced are top 3-4 in these lines. Otherwise, it’s value options and rookies to fill the on-field positions. A player like Sicily who can score like a premium for a few weeks might be the perfect stopgap. Don’t forget the Hawks have the final bye round. 

Outside of the forecast scoring regression of players coming off ACLs, the other cause for uncertainty is the Hawke backline structure. If you presume health, they’ve got a mountain of players that can rotate in the back six, and all be viable options to clip away at his points. Both Will Day and Jack Scrimshaw have been long seen as the reincarnation of the famous Hawk dynasty ball users. Jarman Impey and Lachie Bramble found new homes in the backline and offered speed and defensive work rates. Blake Hardwick is the lockdown man but does take a majority share of kick-in duties. While Changkuoth Jiath could be anything.

Sicily is the backline leader, and as good as the development of that young core is, he’s still the supreme user and interceptor of the bunch. So while someone might see a score drip, I’m confident it won’t be James.

He needs to be on your watchlist; it’s too early in the preseason to either lock him in or ignore him. But, as always, stepping stones in certain lines are either required or redundant based on the availability of cash cows. So, for now, wait and see on James Sicily.

DRAFT DECISION

There’s always a wide variety of coaching strategies in every draft league. Some will only draft off names they know, others only off historical data, and some love to chase the breakouts. I use one strategy when considering looking for players at positions like D3/D4 for players with scoring upside. And James Sicily ticks that box. My ideal time to land him is D4, but I think he’ll be snapped up as a D3.

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AFL Trade Review | Tim O’Brien

With Lachie Young departing the Dogs, they needed a replacement. Enter Hawthorn free agent Tim O’Brien. But is he fantasy relevant?

Career High SuperCoach Score: 125 vs Western Bulldogs (2021)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 71.6 (2019)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 102 vs Western Bulldogs (2021)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 63.4 (2017)

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Impact on New Club

Much has been made about whether or not the Bulldogs back six is strong enough to be a premiership side. To be honest, I think it’s pretty close to it. Barring a stirring last 45 minutes of unstoppable Demon football, they’d be premiership players.

Alex Keath is the backline general alongside Easton Wood, who can play taller than his 187cm. Caleb Daniel, Bailey Dale, Taylor Duryea and Bailey Williams round out the weekly backline crew. Then it’s a toss of the coin between Ryan Gardner or Zayne Cordy for the other key position role. Unfortunately, I can’t see Tim O’Brien breaking into that mix. Instead, It’ll take an injury for him to get games.

The Dogs lost Lachie Young in the trade period, and while he was a key defender, he was more often used as a ruckman when playing. So ‘TOB’s’ inclusion is nothing more than an insurance policy.

Impact on Old Club

The Hawks are undertaking a rebuild. And while Tim O’Brien has shown glimpses of his ability, it’s not been consistent enough. So for Hawthorn, the best course of action is to allow the next generation to take flight and for him to move on.

Over the past few seasons, the swingman has found himself more inside the Hawks back 50. The KPD stocks are well stocked. James Sicily will return from an ACL. Denver Grainger-Barrass has shown moments in his first year. At the same time, Changkuoth Jiath was one of the breakout players in the league. Throw in the old-timers in Sam Frost and Kyle Hartigan, and it’s not a space that they lack in depth options. 

Fantasy Summary

In fantasy footy terms, I’ve got no interest in owning Tim O’Brien. His new side does love to hold onto the football and have a high possession game style. But any team with both Caleb Daniel and Bailey Dale in the back half, you can guarantee they’ll take a monopoly of those opportunities. I don’t see the disposal opportunities for him to thrive. 

A personal high average of 71 in SuperCoach is nothing to write home about. And in AFLFantasy, his 102 against the Bulldogs isn’t just a career high score, but also his only triple digit score. 

It’d take some injuries to their key stocks to have him in the best 22, let alone a fantasy option. Pass! 

#14 Most Relevant | Tom Mitchell

After returning from a horrific broken leg, Tom Mitchell put together a fine season. The question is, can he get back to averaging near 130 again in 2021?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Mitchell
Age: 27
Club: Hawthorn Hawks
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score: 
115 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy)
164 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
195 Vs GWS | AFLFantasy (2018)
192 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2018)

2020 Average: 
86.1 (AFLFantasy) | 107.6(Adjusted Average)
113.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $610,000
AFLFantasy Price: $823,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $795,700

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

After missing for the entire 2019 AFL season, the fantasy football community was excited to select Tom Mitchell. And while he didn’t return to the insane scoring heights of his Brownlow Medal winning 2018, ‘Titch’ still was a high quality performer.

Per game, he ranked 2nd in the AFL for handballs, 5th for effective disposals, 9th for uncontested possession, 18th for contested possession, and stoppage clearances. All done off the back of a broken leg and with a bung shoulder all year.

From his 17 games last year he ranked 13th for total points in AFLFantasy and 20th by averages. Speaking of averages, he went at 86 (107 adjusted) and scored 5 tons plus 5 additional scores of 80 or more.

In SuperCoach he averaged 113, scored 12 tons with 5 over 130 and just one score under 83 all season. His 2020 season ended with him ranked 11th for total points, 10th by averages among all players.

As the season went on, he got better. Over the first 8 games, he averaged 76.8 (96 adjusted) in AFLFantasy and 107 SuperCoach. However, in the last 9 matches, it was 94.4 (118 adjusted) for AFLFantasy and 118 in SuperCoach.
8 of his 10 largest AFLFantasy/DreamTeam scores came in the final 9 weeks. While in SuperCoach 7 of his final 9 games were tons.

If you’ve followed footy for more than 12 months then your familiar with that fact that ‘Titch’ missed the 2019 season after he broke his leg at Hawthorn training.

During the 2018 season, he was dominant in all fantasy formats of the game. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he played 22 games, had only one score below 80 and averaged 129.1. It consisted of seventeen scores of 100 or more, fifteen of them higher than 120 and a ridiculous ten over 140. That year he reached his personal best AFLFantasy score with a 50 possession and 13 tackle game against GWS. In that game, he posted a 195.

As a reference point, only Dane Swan’s 2012 season were he averaged 133 and Tom Rockliff’s 2014 going at 134 have averaged more in a single season.

Across that season for SuperCoach he had only one game where his scoring dipped beneath 80. Mitchell reached triple figures in 18 games and had 14 scores over 120 and nine over 140. Two of those games were over 180 including personal best against Carlton. That game he had 46 possessions, nine tackles, two goals and 192 SuperCoach points.

Can he get back to this 2018 scoring for 2021? Because if he can climb back anywhere near that? There’s potential about 20 points per game of growth in him for AFLFantasy and 16 in SuperCoach.

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MY TAKE

You don’t have to be among the best fantasy football coaches to recognise that Tom Mitchell’s scoring ability across formats is unrivalled. For multiple years and at clubs he’s shown just how destructive a player he can be. When we consider fantasy footballers that if you don’t own them that they can destroy your season ‘titch’ is a certainty in that category.

I suppose the question then needs to be asked ‘if he’s so good, why is he not inside the top 10 most relevant?’ An excellent question, which has two reasonably simple answers.

Firstly, during the offseason, Tom Mitchell underwent a should reconstruction. Bizarrely, he initially suffered the injury in round one, but he still managed to play every game in 2020. Recently he spoke out that he’s ‘no certainty to be ready‘ for round one.

The positive is that he’s still able to get all the fitness base work set given you don’t need your shoulder to run. That’s important for him coming off a broken leg.

The second is about whether or not he’s got the capacity to get back to the uber elite days. Multiple years of 120+averages is elite, but remember these seasons were done without James Worpel and Jaeger O’Meara. For Hawthorn to rebound up the ladder it won’t be all won and down of Titch through the guts.

What do you need to see from him in the preseason to select him? Is it to play the AAMI Community series match? Is it to take and respond well to some heavy bumps and tackles in this game? You need to set up a clear path of what he needs to achieve for you to select him, otherwise you’ll allow confirmation bias to determine the outcome.

While I don’t think he’ll go back to being that 125+ performer again, I do have him across the formats averaging around 115. For me, in AFLFantasy and DreamTeam, that’s enough for me to start him. And should most definitely be on your upgrade plans in SuperCoach.

If he’s currently in your starting squad, then you need a backup plan. I’ve played fantasy footy long enough to know how this could go for you if you don’t. It plays out like this, you love the Tom Mitchell pick and your structure so much, but if he fails to play round one, you find yourself stuck.

All of a sudden your in one of 2 bad choices. The first, you settle on a lesser quality player that fits your cash range, but not your scoring prioritise. Or second, you destroy your entire preseason structure to amend this one selection.

To put it simply, have a backup plan. If Titch doesn’t get up for round one, what’s your Plan B? If you don’t know it, you need it. Otherwise, it could be a stressful and catastrophic decision.

DRAFT DECISION

The valuing of midfielders in the draft’s opening round is clearly the least I’ve seen in the past decade. As a result, Tom Mitchell and other topline midfielders will find themselves getting drafted marginally later than previously. I still have him ranked as a safe M1 selection and will fly off draft boards in the second round. Coaches won’t sleep on a player with his scoring capacity for long.

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#49 Most Relevant | Tom Phillips

For Collingwood, Tom Phillips might have just been a salary cap dump. However, at his new club, he could be a perfect value MID/FWD in 2021.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Phillips
Age: 24
Club: Hawthorn
Position: MID/FWD

2020 Highest Score: 
101 Vs Richmond (AFLFantasy)
103 Vs Melbourne (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
143 Vs Fremantle | AFLFantasy (2018)
131 Vs Fremantle | SuperCoach (2018)

2020 Average: 
63 (AFLFantasy) | 78.75 (Adjusted Average)
74.9 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $402,600
AFLFantasy Price: $602,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $582.300

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Not much went to plan for Tom Phillips in 2020. Despite playing fifteen of a possible seventeen games, the now former Magpie found himself displaced from his preferred role on the wing.

Collingwood still valued his outside run and ability to create space but was clearly internally overtaken by Josh Daicos who made the wing his own. As a result, ‘Flippa’ was forced to adjust to a new role across the half forward flank, and because of this, his statistics and fantasy football impact dropped drastically.

In 2020 he averaged seven fewer possessions a game (16.3) than in 2019 (23.9). Six less kicks and his marks per game fell from 5.1 to 3.1 per game.

His SuperCoach season ended averaging 74.9 with just four scores 90 or above and a season high 103 being his sole ton for the year. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 63 (adjusted 78) and went over 90 just once. It was a 101 back in round two against the Tigers.

These numbers are a far cry from what he delivered the previous two seasons. In 2018 & 2019 in AFLFantasy he averaged 95 and 90 and played every game across both years. During this time he scored 16 tons including seven that were over 120. Over this 44 game stretch, he hit the ton in 36% of games and only failed to score above 60 in just three matches.

Tom Phillips SuperCoach numbers aren’t as strong but still hold strong especially his 2018 season. That year he averaged 90, posted eight tons and went over 120 in four matches. Additionally, he opened the season averaging 106 in his first ten games of the year. Last year, the average dipped marginally to 83 yet still posted four tons and an extra four scores between 90-99.

As a midfielder eligible player, these numbers would only be draft relevant. However, with him gaining dual position eligibility as MID/FWD, he becomes a viable scoring candidate.

Even more so by moving to a new club as part of Collingwood’s famous ‘it’s not a salary dump, but it’s a salary dump’ offseason trade period. At Hawthorn, he now has the opportunity to get back to his 2018-2019 scoring days on the wing.

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MY TAKE

The positive of being played out of position in 2020, has multiple benefits for prospective owners this season. Firstly, he’s gained MID/FWD DPP. Suddenly, the scoring threshold to make him relevant and valuable drops from needing to be 100+ now moves back into the ’90s. A scoring range he’s proven he can deliver.

Second, it’s that we now get him discounted considerably due to him not scoring well in that new role. Had Tom Phillips stayed at Collingwood even with the DPP gaining and the departure of Adam Treloar he wouldn’t make this list.

But due to a move to Hawthorn, he now can move seamlessly back onto a wing with the Hawks losing Isaac Smith. The case for him returning to those higher scoring days is much more believable at his new club.

Much will be made across the preseason about the dominant top group of forwards available this season. Patrick Dangerfield, Steele Sidebottom, Dayne Zorko, Rowan Marshall, Dustin Martin all look almost certain top ten forwards. A case can easily be made that Isaac Heeney, Josh Dunkley and even Toby Greene could also be in the mix across the formats.

As a result, we may need our breakout forwards to score at a potentially higher rate to make their selection worthwhile.

‘Flippa’ is ranked currently as the 18th best forward in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he doesn’t have to do much to climb into the top ten. Remember, he delivered that in an out of role season. In SuperCoach, the climb will take more work, as he’s currently ranked 36th amongst forwards based on last years average.

While those rankings might be favourable in part for him the question is this, ‘can he return to the 90 average days again’? If he does, even if not a ‘year end keeper’ then he’s done his job. If scoring is closer to an early 80’s average, then it just won’t cut it for us this year.

The benefit he does have over others near his price is that he is a proven scorer. We know when he gets the role, he can average 90’s. It’s not based on forecasted potential, but proven data. While the untested ‘breakout’ might be the flashier pick, sometimes you need to back in the player that’s done it before and in multiple seasons.

For SuperCoach, I believe he won’t be a top 10 averaging player, and with players, cheaper than him that I think will score comparable it’s for that reason he’s a pass in my books.

In AFLDreamTeam, if you believe he can push towards a top 10 average a get back to a 90 average, then he’s worth starting. At worst he won’t be that far off the top scoring pack so that even a mid 80’s average will still return some value while he could then be quickly flipped to a fallen premium.

While I think it’s AFLFantasy that he’s a serious starter. At best he smashes a few early tons and can deliver some value for money. While at worst, you sideways him to the breakout player that’s flying. Honestly, in this format, you really can’t go wrong.

DRAFT DECISION

Tom Phillips has the potential to push to be a low end F1 target, but if he were my top ranked forward on draft day, I’d feel light on this line. That’s not necessarily a problem, but rather can be balanced out with the selections you make in other lines.

If he were an F2 in AFLFantasy scoring, I’d feel very comfortable. While in SuperCoach, anywhere from low end pick F2 if going heavy in other lines on draft day, if not a base of F3 should give you a solid return.

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Patreon Exclusive | Free Agency Review | Isaac Smith

A premiership Hawk is heading down the highway to join arch-rival Geelong. But are the best days behind Isaac Smith?

Career High SuperCoach Score:  147 Vs Port (2015)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 151 Vs Port (2015)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 90.8 (2014)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 96.5 (2015)

Impact on New Club

The Cats have netted themselves one of the premier wingmen in the competition. Despite 2020 being a difficult year for the Hawks, Issac Smith ranked above average for disposals; metres gained and score involvements.

His inclusions into the Cats midfield unit means someone like Mak Blicavs who spent plenty of time across the wings moves back to a key defensive role.

This will be even more likely with Harry Taylor following Gary Ablett’s trend and calling time on his career. Isaac is a perfect inclusion into a Cats game style which prides itself on executing high with skills.

His ability to run and carry, plus get into damaging outside positions will mean he’s a perfect player to deliver the ball lace out to Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron.

Impact on Old Club

By all media reports, the Hawks wanted to keep him. But he’s decided to give himself the best chance of another flag by heading down the highway. What his departure does do is immediately impact the outside polish and ball movement of the Hawthorn midfield,, which is very one-paced.

Jaeger O’Meara, Tom Mitchell, James Worpel and Liam Shiels is strong top four mids, but they lack in breakaway speed and class. Tom Scully is already part of the outside contingent of the Hawks but is a shell of himself compared to his peak at GWS, so he isn’t the solution. Jarmen Impey looms as a likely replacement coming off the back of an ACL injury he adds poise and speed.

They could also look at Finn Maginness who they drafted at pick 29 last year. He’s an endurance runner with clean hands and certainly needs to be given plenty of chances at AFL level.

Equally, they could look to push Will Day up from the backline,, and after Damon Greaves and Jack Scrimshaw, both played well in the opportunities. Day is an elite ball user and looks very composed.

Finally, they might choose to select Tanner Bruhn at pick four in the draft. While maybe it’s a handful of picks early, he’s arguably the most classy player in the draft.

Fantasy Summary

it’s been a long time since Isaac Smith was relevant in the salary cap versions of the game. Beyond his debut season (2011) where he averaged 80 across the formats, it would have to be the season from a few years ago where he was MID/FWD.

An adjusted average of 81 in AFLFantasy and 74 last year in SuperCoach was a little down on his previous years where he averaged mid 80’s. I forecast him to return his scoring back into the mid to high 80’s making him draft relevant, as a relatively late pick.

Depending on the sizes of squads in leagues as a last on midfield option, or depth he still has a scoring ceiling that could prove handy.

SuperCoach Player of the Decade | Hawthorn Hawks

We’ve decided to look at who I believe has been the best SuperCoach performer from each AFL club over the past ten years. Here’s who I believe it is for Hawthorn.

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Luke Hodge

When you talk the 2010 decade of footy it’s hard to ignore the Hawthorn Football club. In the first half of the decade the Hawks where the premiere side of the AFL. The premiership three peat of 2013-2015 puts this Hawks unit among one of the all time great sides. Unsurprisingly, this era of Hawks dominance translated into SuperCoach scores.

Captain Luke Hodge was a prolific and damaging scorer throughout the decade. While not holding down defensive eligibility for the entire decade, for the most part, he was one of the games leading defenders. He entered into the decade with a phenomenal season. A season average of 116 was one of the most dominant years with him boasting the seventh-highest average of the year. What’s worth noting is his first twelve games is that 11 of them were scores of 108 or more.

The following season (2011) he averaged 106, scored 10 tons and four scores over 140 including a 163 against The Brisbane Lions a side he would seven years later find himself playing for. Three more seasons averaging mid to high 80’s, two in the ’90s as a defender are more than serviceable.

Of the136 games he played in the decade I must admit my personal favourite season of owning Hodge was in 2015. That he finished the year averaging 108, but it was the extreme ceiling he found himself delivering that SuperCoach players remember with fondness. In round three against the Bulldogs, he scored a 177, while seven weeks later it was a 165 against Fremantle. A fortnight later his Hawks destroyed the Blues by 138 points and Luke helped himself to a lazy 140 SuperCoach points.

In this decade the Hawks had some stunning players, many who are now AFL legends. The tipping point for me in awarding the mantle to Luke Hodge was that for the vast majority of the era he was defensive eligible. While other Hawks in the period (yes I’m looking at you, Sam Mitchell) may have a higher decade average, the position of a players scoring must be considered.

Who Missed Out

It was a close call, but Luke Hodge narrowly beat out Sam Mitchell as the SuperCoach Hawk of the decade. The thing that tipped the scales in Hodge’s favour was the fact that for large portions of the decade he was defensive eligible. That said, long time players will remember that Sam spent one season as a Bachman. In 2014 he was a popular backline selection and averaged 91 including a 149 against the Suns early in the year. Across 2010-2016 he had four seasons averaging over 100, including back to back seasons going over 110.

In 2011 he played 20 games, averaged 113.4 and scored over 100 in 14 matches including eight over 120. He followed it up with another 110 year. This time made up of 15 tons including four over 130.

Sadly, Tom Mitchell was never going to be a serious contender. Two seasons at the club was never going to be enough to be a clubs player of the decade. That said, averaging 118 and 129 and playing every game are two very elite scoring seasons.

Speaking of premium midfield seasons, Jordan Lewis was a consistently solid performer with four seasons averaging between 90-99. However, it was his 2014 and 2015 seasons that he delivered at his SuperCoach peak. In 2014 he averaged 109.4, from 21 games he scored 12 tons across the season. As good as he was across the year, it was his final six games that were a thing of scoring beauty. He scored 116, 123, 165, 145, 110 & 154 averaging 135.5

Like many Hawks, early in the decade, they had several players that were strong SuperCoach performers. For Lance Franklin, he opened up the decade averaging 107, 110 & 115 making him the most dominant forward in the game between 2010-2012. A move to the Swans post 2013 dashed any hopes he had of taking the mantle.

Speaking of Hawthorn forwards, Cyril Rioli doesn’t get the love from SuperCoach players as much as he should. Between 2010 -2016 his lowest seasonal average was 88 with his 2010-2012 seasonal averages of 94, 99 & 98 a definite highlight.

While during the premiership era Jarryd Roughead was also a phenomenal contributor both to their dominance but also for SuperCoach. Between 2011-2015 ‘Rough’ was arguably one of the most dominant and consistent forward through those years. Averages of 101, 103, 98, 95 and 91 made him a genuine top 6-10 forward every year. Two additional seasons averaging in the 80 just wasn’t strong enough, in my opinion, to outperform his former skipper.

Marsh Community Series Review | Hawthorn Vs St Kilda

A nice tune up for the Saints and Hawks in a nostalgic battle at Moorabbin that saw St.Kilda get up by 21 points in a match that was fairly entertaining albeit lacking in intensity. Both sets of fans would have been happy with the positives to come out of the night but let’s get to the important stuff, how did the players on our fantasy watchlists perform?

Captain Geary, Hannebery, Jones, Webster and Roberton were all missing for the Saints but are all expected to get a run next week so take note of the positional impact they may have on the guys on your radar. Sicily and Burgoyne were missing for the Hawks and it’s unclear if they will suit up for next week.

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Tom Mitchell:

Let’s be honest, this guy is the reason we tuned in for this game. Our headline act returned after 12 months out and most importantly got through unscathed. His numbers were decent, 21 touches and 5 tackles from 3 quarters, but it was his intent and attack on the ball that stood out and really impressed me. 60 seconds into the game, he had laid 2 tackles and by quarter time it was 4. Yes, he was a bit handball happy, but he was at most stoppages looking hungry for the ball and once he shakes off the cobwebs, will be looking like himself again.

Jonathon Patton:

Looked good! He looks really trim and agile for a big guy and even though he was well held by Carlisle early, he always provided a good contest. His first goal came after he drew a free kick with some impressive body work. He finished with 3 goals and was doing a fair bit of pinch hitting in the ruck. I’m not sure if that would have happened if McEvoy didn’t go down but it was great signs for the former number 1 pick. An R2 option?? With all the others on offer, it’s still a no, but another decent performance in Marsh 2 and he could well find himself in some forward lines this season.

James Worpel: One of the big pre-season questions has been around whether Mitchell’s return will stall Worpel’s progress? He didn’t have a big game tonight, but I’m not convinced it was because of Mitchell. He was buzzing around the ball all night but just didn’t get going until the second half. Finished with 21 touches and 6 tackles so it wasn’t a bad performance.

Jonathon Ceglar:

Pegged as the Hawks number 1 ruck this year, Ceglar loomed a possible mid pricer for the forward line or even as R2 but tonight’s performance didn’t do him any favours. McEvoy went off injured in the opening minutes leaving the bulk of rucking to Ceglar. He had a great duel with Marshall and Ryder but didn’t show much from a fantasy point of view. He had a game high 26 hit outs and close to game high 8 clearances but only 11 touches and no marks to go with it.

Chad Wingard:

Had plenty of midfield minutes attending 18 centre bounce and was looking good early. He was very involved and had 12 touches to half time but unfortunately was rested for most of the second half. The midfield role he had late last year looks like continuing which makes him very interesting indeed as a forward option.

Isaac Smith:

Did as he pleased up and down the wings and looked great. He had his hands full for most of the night matched against the silky Hill but made sure he made it count going the other way. He had 21 touches, 6 tackles and kicked 2.3 in an impressive performance. Not hugely relevant for fantasy sides but a handy pick up in Drafts.

Jaegar O’Meara:

He could be the biggest benefactor of Mitchell’s return as he should now avoid the tag some weeks. He only played 40% game time but impressed with 10 touches and 6 tackles. A unique option.

Tom Scully:

The running machine ran with Billings early and did a great job to limit his impact. Gathered 18 touches and kicked a goal but didn’t really show enough to suggest he’s a solid option even at his low price point.

Hunter Clark:

All the pre-season hype in the backline has been around Dan Houston and rightly so but some have forgotten how well Clark finished last season. After a quiet start, he really got going and provided the Saints with great drive off half back where he roamed for most of the night. His 3rd quarter impressed as he collected 8 possessions and kicked a beautiful goal on the run. Finished with 22 touches and only 2 marks but I’d expect him to take more advantage of the junk time action that was offered when the real stuff starts.

Jack Steele:

With the word he will be released from tagging duties this season, Steele looks a unique option in the midfield. If he’s in your plans, your heart would have sunk when he went straight to Tom Mitchell at the first bounce. It wasn’t a hard tag though and he seemed to be playing his own game by the 2nd half. The good news is he was in the thick of it and attended plenty of centre bounces on the way to 25 touches and 5 tackles. Still one to watch.

Max King:

The crowd oohed and aahed every time this kid went near the ball and with good reason, he looks a huge talent for the future. Should be a lock for round 1 after this performance, he contested well and had a great presence for someone of his inexperience. Finished with just the 7 touches but kicked 1.1 and took some big marks up the ground. Definitely a cash cow for the bench only though as scoring potential is low.

Seb Ross:

Under priced this year and was in great form under Ratten late last year so there’s a real interest in his role. He split his time between half back and on the ball and even though he accumulated possessions reasonably well, he had just the 6 kicks and didn’t put himself on my radar at all.

Jack Billings:

Had an interesting night. Started very quietly and was quelled early in what appeared to be a tag from Tom Scully. He got busy as the night went on and collected a lot of ball at half back. Finished up with decent numbers (27 touches and 10 marks) thanks to some seriously good junk time action in the last 10-15 minutes when both sides were just going through the motions.

Brad Hill:

Oozed class and was close to BOG at halftime. Everything he touched in the first quarter turned to gold and Saints fans around the country would have been salivating. His first real involvement was a centimetre perfect (cheers Dennis) around the body kick that hit Membrey on the chest. It was a thing of beauty. He faded a bit after the first quarter and was losing his battle with Isaac Smith when he was put on ice at 3 quarter time.

Rowan Marshall:

I was worried early for Marshall’s fantasy prospects as the Ryder effect is looking real. Still the preferred ruck, Marshall shared ruck duties with Ryder and his numbers were poor for most of the game. He had a big last quarter though playing mostly forward and kicking 2 goals. By that stage, St.Kilda had brought on Jonathon Marsh and Ryan Abbott to have some ruck time. This all felt very experimental and I think come the season proper Marshall will be rucking 65-70% of games and will be just fine.

Jade Gresham:

Not really on my radar before tonight but turned heads with a huge first-half performance. He attended 18 centre bounces which I wasn’t expecting and had a game-high 9 clearances.  He was simply everywhere in that first half with 15 touches and a goal. He finished with 21 touches from just 59% game time. He reminds me of Jack Billings from a couple of years ago and with the forward stocks looking thin this year, maybe he’s a point of difference that could break out.

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#11 Most Relevant | Tom Mitchell

He’s one of the most elite fantasy footballers we’ve ever seen. However, coming off a severely broken leg will Tom Mitchell return to his brilliant best?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Mitchell
Age: 26
Club: Hawthorn Hawks
Position: Midfield

SuperCoach Price: $630,900
AFLFantasy Price: $671,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $747,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

The date was January 10th, 2019. A day that on the surface seems to be irrelevant, but for Tom Mitchell, the Hawks and fantasy coaches it was super important. It was the day that ‘Titch’ broke his leg at Hawthorn training.

It was a disappointing start to the season for all after what was a phenomenal 2018 season. Mitchell, led the league in disposals with 848, an average of 35 per game. The inside beast averaged more than 16 contested possessions and eight clearances a game. Mitchell also ended winning the AFL Players Association MVP award, being included in the All Australian Team and winning his first Brownlow Medal.

During the 2018 season, he was dominant in all fantasy formats of the game. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he played 22 games, had only one score below 80 and averaged 129.1. It consisted of seventeen scores of 100 or more, fifteen of them higher than 120 and a ridiculous ten over 140. That year he reached his personal best AFLFantasy score with a 50 possession and 13 tackle game against GWS. In that game, he posted a 195.

As a reference point, only Dane Swan’s 2012 season were he averaged 133 and Tom Rockliff’s 2014 going at 134 have averaged more in a single season.

Across that season for SuperCoach he had only one game where his scoring dipped beneath 80. Mitchell reached triple figures in 18 games, had 14 scores over 120 and nine that was over 140. Two of those games were over 180 including personal best against Carlton. That game he had 46 possessions, nine tackles, two goals and 192 SuperCoach points.

However, ‘Titch’ has been a scoring beast for a long time. In his first season at Hawthorn for SuperCoach he had only two matches all season he failed to reach the ton with scores of 98 & 85. That year (2018) he averaged 118.8, which consisted of 20 scores over one hundred, and nine over 120.

Tom Mitchell’s in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam has a seasonal (2018) low of 94, and it was one of only two scores that he didn’t reach the ton. From his 20 scores over the hundred markers, fifteen of them were above 120 and five over 140 including a 177 against the Magpies.

Since joining the Hawks, he has played 44 games and scored an AFLFantasy ton in 83% of matches (37) 86% of games (38) in SuperCoach.

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MY TAKE

No coach in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy or DreamTeam would doubt that Tom Mitchell is one of the most elite scoring forces we’ve ever seen. However, we have one gigantic question we must answer before selecting him?

No, it’s not about if he’ll struggle to maintain such a high possession game. Even with the development of James Worpel last season and the continued positive health of Jaeger O’Meara the way Titch gets to the ball both on the inside and outside of contests will not stop him from pushing as one of the top-scoring players.

Even if the club does ease him back into it via a different role he’s shown even at Sydney he can score with low time through the midfield.

The big concern is, how does the broken leg impact his scoring this year? The positive for coaches is just in the past week Hawthorn has been very positive in that he will be right to go for the opening game of the year.

Former Hawthorn champion and now assistant coach Sam Mitchell had this to say recently. “He’s certainly looking pretty sharp … the plan at this point is that he’ll be ready to play sometime in the pre-season games and be ready for round one.”

That’s positive news, but will he return as the scoring beast of old? Or will we see some regression? Honestly, hindsight will tell us in the end, but what we can do is look to other players that have suffered similar injuries and see what differential occurred (if any) coming back from a severe break.

In 2005 Richhmond’s Nathan Brown was dominating the fantasy landscape with an average of 101 in AFLFantasy and 121 in SuperCoach. However, the following season since recovering from an equally as horrific break he managed to only average 60 in AFLFantasy and 65 in SuperCoach.

Michael Barlow, in his debut season of 2010, was dominating the game. An average of 109 in AFLFantasy and 116 was cut short horrifically with a broken leg. The following season he managed to average only 85 in AFLFantasy and 83 in SuperCoach.

While the numbers aren’t as drastic, we have seen scoring dips from Michael Voss, Robbie Gray and Mitch Wallis all coming back from injury. So based on history, the question to ponder isn’t will he regress? But instead, how much and is he still worth selecting?

It’s only a small flag, but Mitchell does fave two of the more damaging taggers in the game after the bye Round in Ben Jacobs and Matt de Boer. He’s far from a certainty give O’Meara is arguably more damaging with the ball, but it is something to consider.

In AFLFantasy it’s an absolute no brainer selection. Give his discount, the two trades a week and the fact he’s in over 50% of teams he is as close to a ‘must have’ as you can get. Honestly, if this list was for AFLFantasy only he would’ve been #1.

SuperCoach, I’m more cautious. I don’t believe he offers the value to start him given the potential risks. So in that format, I’ll target him as an upgrade. In DreamTeam, he does present value and is someone I will consider seriously.

I’ll be watching him very closely in the Marsh preseason games, not just for his scoring points but how he moves and does he show any hesitation or drastic role change.

DRAFT DECISION

His draft range is incredibly challenging to forecast. While we all say we won’t reach to own him, the fact is when it comes around to your selection on draft day, you’ll have a split second dilemma. To take or not to take Tom Mitchell. In all honesty, while there are risks associated, I still see him flying off draft boards in the second round. 

His potential upside is so significant that even the most experienced coach will find it hard to pass him up. 

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#39 Most Relevant | James Sicily

Last year looked as though James Sicily was primed to enter into becoming one of the elite scoring defenders. However, things didn’t go to plan. Will they in 2020?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: James Sicily
Age: 25
Club: Hawthorn Hawks
Position: Defender

2019 Highest Score: 
121 Vs Collingwood (AFLFantasy)
141 Vs Collingwood (SuperCoach)

2019 Average: 
83.6 (AFLFantasy)
93.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $509,500
AFLFantasy Price: $620,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $604,600

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

James Sicily is one of the best defenders in the league. Last year he finished fourth in the Hawks best and fairest and was recognised for his season with selection in the initial All Australian squad of forty.

Sicily possesses the rare ability to control the game from behind the ball with his elite marking and his decision making by foot makes him a valuable asset for the Hawks. He ranks elite in the AFL for kicks, contested marks, uncontested marks and rebound 50’s.

Up until the bye round, he was delivering as fantasy coaches expected. From the first eleven games of the year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he had five scores over 100 including three over 110 and averaging 94.2 For SuperCoach he was averaging 99.8 and had scored six times in triple figures with three of them 117 or higher.

2019 was a year of inconsistency (which we’ll talk about later), but we’ve got more than just a dozen games of data that highlight his potential scoring. Back in 2018 from a SuperCoach perspective, he scored eight tons, half of those were over 120, and during the season he had only three scores that dipped below 90. For AFLFantasy/SuperCoach he scored five tons including a 125 against Essendon and had five further games that he scored over 90.

During the final ten matches of 2017 when his defensive role was initiated. He averaged 24 possessions, nine marks and despite being heavily tagged in one match where he didn’t score over 25 in any fantasy format he still scored like a premium. During that stretch of games in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he had eight scores of 85 or more, five tons and an average of 89.8. While in SuperCoach Sicily posted eight scores 87 or above, five of those were tons and averaged 91.4.

The positive of a quite back half of the season (and with good reason) means he’s priced significantly cheaper than what you’d have paid twelve months earlier. I would suggest if you were bullish on Sicily last year and started him at 95 in AFLFantasy or 105 in SuperCoach, then you should be seriously factoring him into your starting squad this year.

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MY TAKE

2019 was meant to be the year James Sicily established himself as one of the best long term defensive premiums. However, after the bye round the scoring consistency of Sicily was impacted due to some coaching adjustments. These forced him to play two roles that were both impacting his fantasy football output. Firstly in round thirteen and fourteen, he played as a key forward. Additionally the final eight weeks he played predominantly as a lockdown key defender.

One of the primary reasons for a role change was due to a lack of key defensive options due to injuries. This forced Sicily to play as a more accountable defender and was unable to peel off and set up the play as we’d previously seen.

Over the final 11 games of the season, he averaged a measly 73 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 87.8 in SuperCoach. That’s approximately twenty points difference to what he was doing pre bye in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and twelve in SuperCoach.

During the offseason, Hawthorn acquired the services of Sam Frost, Michael Hately and Jon Patton. The recruitment of these three should help free up Sicily in his preferred role in defence.

Clarko is no John Longmire who’ll change a players role for the sake of it. But he has shown over his coaching career and again emphasised with Sicily’s moves this year he’s more than happy to experiment. Whether it be a mid-game move or something that would last for multiple weeks. The master coach is always looking for a new edge to win a game.

The other two key variables to consider are around his bye round and what his ownership percentage is entering the season. If Sicily is at 10% or lower ownership that might be the deciding factor in me selecting him. A player with his ceiling potential at the small ownership is a handy point of difference.

Additionally, how do you rank him against other premium options from his bye round (14)? Rory Laird, Caleb Daniel and Zac Williams loom as three great options for us in 2020. Where you rank Sicily within those three should give you an indicator of whether he is in consideration as a starting squad option or a trade-in target across the season.

Currently, I have Sicily in my AFLFantasy side and am seriously considering him in DreamTeam and SuperCoach. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back and become a top-five defender in all formats of the game.

DRAFT DECISION

Twelve months ago to own him you’d have been forking out atop 3-5 round selection. However, this season you won’t have to do that. I still like him as a draft option as a D2 with the potential is he should get scoring returns of a D1.
Alternatively, you can target to draft him as your D1 and go heavier early on with selections in other lines.

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