Tag: jayden Short

#29 Most Relevant | Jayden Short

Explore the strategic fantasy football potential of Jayden Short, Richmond Tigers’ key defender, as we analyze his evolving role in the team’s dynamics and the impact of new coaching strategies under Adam Yze.

Delve into how Short’s significant market share, potential growth areas, and favourable early bye-round position him as both a reliable starter and a valuable upgrade target in your fantasy lineup.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Jayden Short is known for his dynamic style and impactful skills in the field. In 2023, Short remained a solid contributor to his team despite being restricted to 16 games due to a hamstring injury. Known for providing significant drive-off half-back, he has also shown versatility by spending much of 2022 in the midfield, demonstrating his adaptability and the breadth of his football abilities.

Short had a notable year in terms of fantasy statistics for 2023. In AFLFantasy, he averaged 92.5, with six scores over 100, including a season-high of 123, and only four scores under 80. This performance places him as the 11th-ranked defender by average for the current year. In SuperCoach, his average was an impressive 98.6, with eight tons, three of which were over 120, and only twice did his scoring dip below 80, ranking him 9th among defenders.

Highlighting Short’s resilience and scoring potential, it’s noteworthy to consider the impact of his injury. Specifically, in Round 16, he was subbed out before halftime due to a hamstring strain. Excluding this game, his seasonal averages would have been even higher – around 97 in AFLFantasy and 102 in SuperCoach. This adjustment underscores his scoring capacity even amidst adversity.

Short has been a model of consistency in the past three seasons, maintaining an average of 90+ across all formats and demonstrating prolonged periods of high scoring. Notably, before his injury-affected 2023 season, he had not missed a game for three consecutive seasons, showcasing his durability and reliability.

Jayden Short is a multifaceted option in a fantasy football community that values various attributes. He offers value for coaches looking for an efficient pick, consistency for those seeking stable scorers, a high-scoring ceiling for those aiming for big points, a dependable scoring floor, and a uniqueness that sets him apart from the pack. Short’s comprehensive skill set and proven track record make him a compelling choice in 2024, offering a blend of qualities that cater to a wide range of strategic needs and preferences.

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MY TAKE

Jayden Short’s role within the Richmond Tigers has seen experimentation over the past seasons. Still, with the arrival of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper, he has been repositioned back to his preferred halfback role. This shift is crucial, as Short has been integral to Richmond’s strategy, evidenced by his significant market share of the team’s fantasy points.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he accounted for 6.2% of the Tigers’ points last year, slightly down from 6.6% the previous year when he had more midfield responsibilities. This market share percentage is critical, indicating that Short remains one of Richmond’s primary ball users and a top contributor to their fantasy scoring, regardless of his specific role.

The arrival of new coach Adam Yze at Richmond has brought promises of ‘changing things up.’ However, according to those observing Richmond’s training sessions, these changes are unlikely to impact Short’s role significantly. He will continue in his effective halfback rebounding role, where he has already scored at a premium level.

Under Yze’s leadership, there’s potential for Short’s game to evolve further. One possible growth area is taking a more significant share of kick-ins; Short took 31 last year, less than teammates Dan Rioli and Nick Vlaustin.

Another potential growth area could stem from an overall evolved team game style. Under former coach Damien Hardwick, Richmond was among the lowest-scoring teams in total fantasy points. If Yze can enhance the team’s scoring, and assuming Short maintains his market share, there’s a path for him to not only push his average above 100 but potentially towards 110.

A key consideration is navigating the early bye rounds due to the AFL’s scheduling. Fortunately, the Tigers have their bye in round 6, which is relatively favourable compared to other early bye rounds. Starting premiums from teams with early byes is feasible but requires strategic team structuring.

Given Short’s history of scoring in the mid-high 90s and the early-season price dynamics, he is unlikely to significantly increase prices rapidly. This makes him a viable upgrade target post the round 6 bye for coaches who choose not to start with him.

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DRAFT DECISION

Jayden Short is a reliable D1 option across both AFLFantasy and SuperCoach formats. His consistent high scoring and versatility on the field make him a top pick for any fantasy manager looking to solidify their defence with a dependable and impactful player.

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Possible DPP’s | Round Eighteen

Before rounds 6, 12 and 18, the gang at Champion Data add some new DPP into the game. After the round, the first list of names and positions will be released. Historically, players need at least 35% to be considered for a new position allocation and at least four games played. So let’s see which players are locked, close or have no chance of getting DPP.

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ADD DEFENDER

Jayden Short

Have no fear. Jayden Short’s DPP is here! Heading into the Friday night clash against Brisbane, he was tracking at 50% of the time in defence, according to Champion Data. His night ended early in the second quarter with a hamstring injury. He’ll likely miss the following three weeks as a minimum. The injury does have a silver lining. Given he’s already played enough games to be eligible for DPP, it means he can’t see a data change, so lock Jayden in as a backline buy.

Even though you can’t buy him when injured, he’s a genuine play upon his return. I mentioned the Tigers upcoming fixture last week when looking at some upgrade targets. Assuming he’s back in round 19, he’d come up against Hawthorn, Melbourne & Western Bulldogs. That’s a nice run of opponents, and Jayden is likely to have the highest three-round average of all defenders during this stretch.

Luke Shuey

Even if Luke Shuey gets DPP, trading into him will only be for some. It may not be for anyone, but the possible positional allocation could be in play. Despite the challenges of the Eagles availability, when Shuey has been playing, he’s spent more time playing off the ball and across the backline. This has been primarily to provide some support, experience and leadership to what, at times, has been an incredibly young and inexperienced defensive group.

Having to be injected back into the centre bounces last week to cover the absence of Tim Kelly might mean that the Eagles premiership hero might see a dint in his defensive half %. But to the naked eye, he’s a consideration to get a change of status. The only reason you are jumping on him should the DEF status arrive is that you believe he and the Eagles will try to stay in games longer by denying the opposition the ball by playing a more possession-heavy football game. If that happens, then there’s a world I could see some coaches chasing the pack of leaders and trading into him. It’s an AFLFantasy style trade where he’s priced under $700k but is coming off the back of two consecutive 100s.

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ADD MIDFIELD

Jack Sinclair

Traditionally, players gaining MID status are some of the least relevant gains because they need to create a pathway to a higher scoring avenue within your 22. However, what the addition of midfield status does is create versatility and flexibility across your classic and draft sides. Over the past six weeks, we’ve used Jack in various roles, and it is linked to two key variables. First, the opposition matchup. Second, Jack Steele’s capacity to get around the ground and impact.

Over the past five weeks, we’ve seen Sinclair go from 0% attendance at a centre bounce and play exclusively half back to 70% CBA’s and everything in between. It will come down to his role and time in the position this week against Melbourne. Plenty will log in Sunday on DFS to see the Saints CBA data.

Nick Daicos

I’ll get to the DPP stuff in a second, but over a week ago, I attended the MCG to watch my Crows play the Magpies. Putting the result aside (sigh), I walked away from that game amazed at what Nick Daicos does, not just with the ball, but without. Have you ever wondered, ‘How does he get that much space?’ Or dared to utter that he’s just an ‘outside junk ball user.’ Then you have to get to a game to watch him play. His workrate off the ball, combined with his elite footy IQ and his teammates desire to include their best ball user, combines for the reasons why he gets so much footy the way and where he does.

Since round eleven, there’s been a clear shift to play Nick higher up the ground. In the ten games prior, he’d only attended two games over 40%; since then, he hasn’t attended under 40% and has a season-high 81% against the Crows at the G. Like all players in the mix gaining MID, it shouldn’t add to your scoring profile. Still, it might save you a trade-in classic or a player delisting in your draft squad later in the year.

Dan Houston

How good was that kick after the siren?! Amazing. OK, not that I have officially annoyed the entire Essendon fan base; let’s discuss Dan Houston. The Port Adelaide halfback flanker and his drive and daring use of the ball are one of the keys behind their season form. Dan’s still seeing plenty of time across the back half, but Port and trying to get his elite ball use higher up the ground.

Looking at CBA data will tell you nothing, as Houston is being used more along the wing than at centre bounces. Between 2021-2022 Dan averaged just three inside ’50s, but in 2023 it’s up to five per game. He’s not certain to gain it, but it could provide some helpful squad versatility for his owners in classic and draft over the coming months.

Sam Docherty

Nobody should be surprised to see Sam Docherty‘s name in the DPP conversation. As the season has progressed, the reliable Blues defender has gradually seen an increase in his midfield presence. According to champion data, he’s currently spending 42% of his time in the midfield, and barring a heavy game this weekend against Freo, I expect him to be a DEF/MID within the week. 

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ADD FORWARD

Sam Walsh

Lock this one up and throw away the key. That was my statement regarding Sam Walsh at his FWD status addition heading into round 12. Sadly, in the critical round 11 matchup, Michael Voss played him 57% as a centre bounce midfielder and the remainder as a wingman, effectively killing the fantasy footy community’s dream of him as a MID/FWD. However, he didn’t attend over 40% of CBAs in the next two weeks. He would’ve gained MID/FWD if that had happened in round eleven. All of a sudden, I got a small glimpse at the heartbreak following Carlton has created its supporters.

Heading into his round 16 matchups, Champion Data had him allocated as playing 36.8% FWD. Post Hawthorn match, it moved to 35%; that’s right on the cutoff line. Safe to say his DPP hopes will all be linked to how he plays Sunday afternoon against Fremantle.

Max Gawn

The possible gain of forward status from either Max Gawn or Brodie Grundy was telegraphed all preseason due to the Demons two headed ruck monsters. To date, Max has become the one that Melbourne has used more forward, with Brodie taking the lead ruck role. Currently, the Demons skipper is sitting right on the 34% threshold. If Gawn can tip this percentage every so marginally for one more week will get Gawn as an RUC/FWD. Dear Simon Goodwin, you play St Kilda this week; you must stretch the defence and let Big Max do this.

This DPP could take on additional significance in round 16; Darcy Cameron was unpredictably given a weird role, resulting in his season-low score. With many trusting in ‘DC’ to get them through the year for coverage and squad depth, Max’s DPP gain looms as a potential ‘upgrade’ on those using a cover RUC/FWD DPP strategy.

Deven Robertson

Over the past month on our podcasts, fellow co-founder Rids has been one of the few voices in the community championing the importance of bench hygiene over the year’s final months. In a rush to ‘complete’ your teams, many teams have done it at the cost of the bench depth, both in playable options and cash generation. Why am I mentioning it here? Because Deven Robertson is highly likely to gain FWD status and create not just a handy loop between MID/FWD but a stronger bench coverage in the forward line.

The Lions youngster is fighting the fight to get more midfield time, but at the moment is plying his trade, creating pressure and presence floating between the midfield and forward lines. The likely addition of Dev means coaches currently running with the likes of Lohmann, Roberts, Drury, Davey etc., will finally get some small reprieve.

Possible DPP’s | Round Twelve

Before rounds 6, 12 and 18, the gang at Champion Data add some new DPP into the game. After the round, the first list of names and positions will be released. Historically, players need at least 35% to be considered for a new position allocation and at least four games played. So let’s see which players are locked, close or have no chance of getting DPP.

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ADD DEFENDER

Jayden Short

If you’ve tracked the publicly available data hoping to gain insights on future DPPs, seeing Jayden Short attending 67% of centre bounces last weekend isn’t good news. Over a week, he’s gone from someone I would’ve branded as ‘safe’ to gaining DEF status, as now to someone on the borderline. Currently sitting at 34% as a defender, he’s agonisingly close to the trigger of 35% to get the positional allocation. He might just miss out if we have another match like this against Port Adelaide on Sunday afternoon. Sadly, the injury to Jacob Hopper appears to have affected a midfield rotation shuffle for Richmond, and Short has seen a spike. Watch his role on Sunday with interest. He’s a chance for DEF/MID status, but no certainty. 

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Callum Mills

There was a period a few weeks ago when the Sydney Co-Captain was on track to gain defensive status. He was playing down back to cover the injury gaps to Dane Rampe and the McCartin brothers. While the chance was small after playing a heavy midfield role in round eight, any hope was dashed after suffering a calf injury early in round nine against the Dockers. So scrap him from the list. He won’t be getting DEF status heading into round twelve. And given the length of injury layoff he won’t get a positional gain in 2023.

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Dylan Williams

When the 2023 season concludes, and you review the year in hindsight, many will realise that having Dylan Williams on your side will have proven to be vitally important. And that’s for more than just his cash generation, as good as it’s been. Rather the forward has redeveloped himself and his game to become a central part of Port Adelaide’s back six. As a result, I’ve marked him down as a certainty to pick up DEF status and become a DEF/FWD. This will become crucial for us during the multi-byes and allow remarkable squad versatility until it’s time to trade him out at round fifteen. 

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ADD MIDFIELD

Jack Sinclair

Traditionally, players gaining MID status are some of the least relevant gains because they need to create a pathway to a higher scoring avenue within your 22. However, what the addition of midfield status does is create versatility and flexibility across your classic and draft sides.

Jack Sinclair has had an increasing presence at centre bounces for St Kilda. Impressively he’s getting enough time across half-back to pick up some of those uncontested possessions and marks and keep his scoring in the top tier of our available defenders. Over the past five weeks, his attendance varying from just over 20% right up towards over 60%. To gain midfield status, he’ll need a game that’s pushing the 50% of midfield time, he’s still determining, but he’s in the conversation. If he does get it, this, alongside his price post-bye, making him ripe for the picking, should see his ownership skyrocket heading into round thirteen.

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Chayce Jones

Cards on the table, I’m a Crows supporter. And I thought Chayce Jones was headed for the trade table or, even worse, a delisting at the end of 2023. Sadly, beyond his first dozen games, he’d been unable to showcase the potential that made him a top-ten draft selection. That’s all changed! What he’s been able to do over the start of this season has given him a career revival.

The former lockdown defender has found a home across the opposite wing to Lachie Sholl, where his toughness and gut running is crucial to the Crows ball movement. His value to fantasy coaches is with his defender status, but especially in drafts, the DEF/MID status could create some positional versatility, especially if you play through the bye rounds.

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Jake Stringer

Champion Data are the team behind the scenes that determine these positions. They’ve stated that a player’s position at centre bounces is a key factor in positional allocation. Over the past four weeks, Jack Stringer has attended 80%, 55%, 38% & 88% of centre bounces. As a result, one more game in this data territory should mean he gains MID/FWD status. Much like Jones above, his value is in drafts as a forward. However, the DPP could help get players on the field if your draft league plays through the byes. 

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Nick Daicos

The number one defender in the game by average & points has seen incremental growth in time in the midfield over the past five weeks. Nick Daicos has attended a variation of centre bounces from 17% to 63%. Like Sinclair, he’ll need a heavy midfield game this weekend to get DEF/MID status, and while it’s unlikely, if we see a midfield-heavy game as he did against the Crows (63%), it might just tip him into the threshold to get it.

Any DPP gain can add flexibility and versatility, and with the byes starting next week, should he (or anyone else) gain a position, it could unlock some moves for your squad.

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ADD FORWARD

Christian Petracca

Sometimes, as you head into the round ahead of the DPP movements, the data is overwhelmingly compelling, and the position status is guaranteed. Unfortunately, that isn’t the case with Christian Petracca. He’s close, but he will need a fair share of time starting inside forward fifty this weekend to guarantee the status allocation. CP5 has always had a level of time forward, but this year the split is tantalizingly close to him returning to our forward lines.

During the preseason series of the 50 most relevant, I flagged the potential of him gaining forward status. And it’s a reminder for us again that in our starting squad and early season trading cadence, we need to create space for this level of elite scoring that can become part of the game. Should this MID/FWD status land, between him and a few other gains, we might see a complete revolution of what is deemed the ‘top six’ forward for the 2023 season.

With the uncertainty around Clayton Oliver playing this week (and beyond), I’m not sold; we’ll get the heavy-forward time game needed for this DPP to pop.

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Sam Walsh

Lock this one up and throw away the key. This time next week, you’ll be able to select Sam Walsh as a forward. Since his return from injury, he’s been sensational, regularly posting large tons seemingly at will across all formats. The primary causation for the move has been to ease him back into the rigours of AFL.

Regardless of the causation, the positive outcome is that he could pick up forward status. He’s currently on the borderline of it, but as long as Michael Voss doesn’t release him back into a heavy midfield (like last week) role, he should pick up MID/FWD status.

The huge upside with him is that regardless of his future midfield/forward split, he’s shown his scoring is unaffected. So when you combine the current trend and his historical pedigree, we might be about to receive the new top forward by an average of 2023. While the upside is you’ll get a top-tier premium midfield in the forward line; the challenge will be finding the cash to land him.

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Max Gawn

Much like his teammate in Christian Petracca, the possible gain of forward status from either Max Gawn or Brodie Grundy was telegraphed all preseason due to the Demons two headed ruck monsters. To date, Max has become the one that Melbourne has used more forward, with Brodie taking the lead ruck role. Currently, the Demons skipper is sitting right on the 35% threshold. If Gawn can hold this percentage for one more week will get Gawn as an RUC/FWD.

His addition could be an absolute game-changer for multiple reasons. First, an early-season injury has impacted his price point to insanely low space. His round 14 bye round for him means you can maximise him through the rucks in the byes alongside any combination of Rowan Marshall, Tim English or Sean Darcy you have. Third, his potential DPP flexibility could open up loopholes and depth coverage without having to make trades. And lastly, his non-injury-affected average is 93 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102 in SuperCoach. All in all, if Gawn gains it, this could be the biggest addition of the year!

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Jackson Macrae

One week can make a significant difference. This time last week, I had Jackson Macrae as a 50/50 split of gaining MID/FWD status or missing it. After his win against the Crows on the weekend, I’ve got him heading north of 75% confidence picking up forward status. What’s been the cause of the growth? Data! In the period of one round, he’s gone from 35% as a forward upwards to 40%, according to the Herald Sun. Much like others on this list, his pending position status will be determined entirely on his role in the Bulldogs midfield this weekend.

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Will Ashcroft

Over the past few seasons since DPP gains have become an evolution, we’ve often seen high-end midfield talent gain FWD or DEF status as the clubs look to build their bodies and fitness to handle the rigours of AFL football. Players like North Melbourne’s Tom Powell or Hawthorn’s Connor MacDonald have had this happen over the journey. This isn’t and won’t be the case with Will Ashcroft. He’s spent some time as a forward, but he’s been used most of his game as a wingman and a centre-bounce midfielder. He’s zero chance of getting an additional position. Sorry to burst the bubble. 

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Dion Prestia

Two weeks ago, I was growing in confidence that we’d see Dion Prestia pick up MID/FWD status. The Tigers premiership midfielder had been one of the pieces that the coaching staff had used to create room for Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto to become the primary two midfielders at centre bounces. While the possible gain wouldn’t have added classic coaches, it sure would’ve recouped some of the loss of draft capital for coaches who play draft. Instead, due to this forward time increase, his scoring declined.

However, due to an injury to Jacob Hopper, I suspect the trend of last weekend will continue when his CBA’s start to return to normal. As much as I’d love to give some hope to owners, I don’t think it’s coming. Barring a drastic turn of events this weekend, he’ll maintain his pure midfield status.

UltimateFooty | Possible DPP Additions | Round Fifteen

After rounds 3, 6, 12 & 15, the drafting format of Ultimate Footy awards additional player positions to players that have had a role change in the season. As always, players are required to have played a minimum of 3 games to be eligible and to be playing the new position as their primary role in the side. So, for the final time this season, let’s look at who they are and their relevance to your draft sides and leagues.

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Elliot Yeo | ADD BACK

It’s been a tough few seasons if you’ve owned Elliot Yeo. Injuries have sadly got the best of him. However, in the limited games that he has played, he’s been deployed into the backline as an interceptor. The role isn’t unfamiliar to him as it’s where he played when he first got traded to the Eagles. Adding back status is a huge boost to his owners potential scoring. In the past two weeks, he’s scored 84 & 80. As a centre only, that’s just in contention to be on the field. Now, he’s an absolute lock to play on the ground as a defender. 

Harry Himmelberg | ADD BACK

Some positional moves come out of the blue and pay massive dividends for coaches every year. In 2022 the move down back Harry Himmerlberg is in contention for that mantle. He was drafted in just 18% of teams with an ADP of 293. However, since the move, he’s been an animal playing the intercepting and key position defensive role. To his credit, he’s looked very good there, and his scoring has taken a considerable bump. After having just one score over 70 between rounds 1-9, he’s scored a 74, 101, 161, 99 & 117 in this new role. Even the return of Nick Haynes and Phil Davis has done little to move him from the role. 

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Jayden Short | ADD CENTRE

Normally when a player gets some heavy midfield time, we see a spike in scoring. Sadly for Jayden Short owners, that hasn’t been the case. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still been very good, but he hasn’t entered the uber scoring that owners might have been hoping for with the role shift. Since round six, Short has been attending an average of 52% of centre bounces for the Tigers. An obvious and easy addition for the gang at UF!

Tom Atkins | ADD CENTRE

The role change of Tom Atkins has been sudden and obvious at Geelong over the past five matches. Over this stretch of games, he’s attended 29%, 73%, 73%, 83% & 77% of centre bounces for the Cats. Tom’s hard at it contested nature has thrived as a centre bounce midfielder, and his scoring has increased as a direct result. The addition of centre status might not help you on field centre line scoring, but if he holds this role, he will be selected on the field in your backline given the good scores. 

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Bailey Williams | ADD CENTRE

What a surprise, but Luke Beveridge has given a player a role change! All jokes aside, Bailey Williams has taken his opportunity on the wing. With the absence recent absence of Lachie Hunter, he has owned the wing for the past few months. His true value to his owners is he can be played as a backman. However, squad versatility is always helpful, and so like Atkins above, it’s just adding versatility to your team

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Jeremy Finlayson | ADD RUCK

Since round 11, Jeremy Finlayson has been the primary ruckman for the pear and had multiple games where he’s attended north of 70% centre bounces. He’s delivered a couple of scores in the high 70s in this role and has been a handy player pool pick-up. Just be aware that first choice ruckmen Scott Lycett is due to return shortly.

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Wayne Milera | ADD FWD

It’s been a tough run over the past few seasons for Wayne Milera, but he seems to have finally gotten confidence and strength back into his body. Since getting back into Crows side over the past month, he’s been deployed as a half-forward. I like this role and the use of his skill set. With Jordan Dawson and Brodie Smith playing the primary ball users across half-back and Jake Soligo and Jackson Hately holding down the wings, it’s as a forward the greatest opportunity for his skills can shine. So much has been made about Adelaide’s poor inside 50 entries over the past few years; by having Wayne as a half-forward, we should see this increase in better entries. 

Lachlan Jones | ADD FWD

Port Adelaide fans have been calling for Lachie Jones to get a strong run at the AFL level for a while. The pear has found the best place to give him this opportunity has been to use him as a forward. His trademark physicality has been on display, and while he’s not scoring massively, it is a DPP gain that’s warranted. 

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Upgrade Targets After Their Bye | Round 12

One week of the multi bye rounds is over. We now have six teams that have no more scheduled rests for the remainder of the season. Here’s a club by club breakdown of potential upgrade targets who have had their bye round.

Arguably the season’s feel-good story has been Sam Docherty’s comeback. Throw in that he’s having a career-best season in possession stats, and it’s clear to see why he’s many coaches #1 defensive premium target this week. So far, he’s had eight SuperCoach tons and just the one score under 87. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s had seven tons and just one score beneath 89. His scoring is so rounded and pure, so while he won’t be a value buy, he will be one of the best backs until the end of the season. 

 Currently, Sam Walsh is in under 10% of teams and on form of the past three games is ranked third among all SuperCoach and eighth in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. Whenever you can get a high-end scoring premium with low ownership, you need to consider them seriously. Many coaches will chase the value of a Merrett or Wines or go for the flavour of the month, Kelly. None are wrong picks, but Sam could be the best premium over the final ten weeks of the year. 

It’s been tough to have been successful so far this year without owning George Hewett. The stepping stone has outdone our wildest expectations and has probably been the best starting squad selection for 2022. By average, he’s ranked as the clear number one defender and tenth in SuperCoach. It’s this format that if you don’t own, he’s seriously hurting you. For AFLFantasy, he’s still been excellent as one of the top few defenders, but what he’s currently not done is hurt you with his ceiling. As yet, he’s still yet to score over 120. All this to be said if you don’t own in SuperCoach, I don’t believe you can be successful without him. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, if you want to own him, then absolutely get him, but I think he’d be someone I’d encourage non-owners to try and take on. It may hurt to miss, but we haven’t seen the Blues ‘fab five midfielders’. Perhaps we see him slide a little, and non-owners get a slight advantage. 

The year couldn’t have started any better for Patrick Cripps. Beyond a one-week hammy, he was unstoppable over the season’s first two months. However, in the past three weeks, he’s struggled to reach these heights for a combination of reasons. Cripps has gone at just 79 in AFLFantasy and 92 in SuperCoach. The combination of a week off to freshen up and the likely return of Harry McKay should enable him to be back towards averaging 100+ across the formats. He’s fine to hold if you still own him, but I think there are better options priced around him. 

There is only one Richmond player I have fantasy footy interest in, Jayden Short. On average, he’s ranked second in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and seventh in SuperCoach among all defenders. He’s been one of the best early-season options, and despite just one ton in his past three weeks, I believe he’ll be among the top of the backline picks. He’s not unique, nor is he cheap, but he is bloody good to own!

We don’t have a lot of ‘premium’ forward options available to trade into from this group of six teams. But if you are desperate to bring one in, then Dustin Martin is someone to consider. Since coming back into the Tigers lineup in round eight, he’s averaged 90 in SuperCoach & 81 in AFLFantasy. That’s well below his capabilities, and if you believe he (and his Tigers) can have another hot run of form, he might be worth a punt.

A month can be a long time in football. Just four weeks ago, Stephen Coniglio was someone that coaches were eagerly looking to trade after scoring a 49 in AFLFantasy and 37 in SuperCoach against the Blues in round nine. Since then, the club’s coaching has undergone a major overhaul, and as a result, he’s been thrown right back into the midfield and scored a 145 & 85 in SuperCoach and 120 & 108 in AFLFantasy. The club has confirmed that he’ll maintain this midfield role, and with Tim Taranto still potentially weeks away, he looks like finally being the premium forward we all hoped he could be. If you don’t own him, he’s legitimately one of the best value buys of the week. 

One of the most attractive options coaches consider is GWS skipper Josh Kelly, and understandably so. Multiple times over his career, he’s the ability to average 110+ for a full season across all fantasy formats. In AFLFantasy, he’s the form player in the game with the highest three-round average, with him rolling an average of 126. While in SuperCoach, he’s going at 137 in the previous three games, with only Clayton Oliver going better. He’s no longer a value pick, but if his current scoring trend holds, he’ll be among the top eight scoring midfielders for the final few months of the season. 

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Mark my words, Isaac Cumming is a star and will become one of the best premium defenders in the game. His elite combination of foot skills, intercepting and footy IQ make him phenomenally fun to own. The question is whether or not it happens, but rather will these next ten weeks see him average enough to compete with the best backs in the game. I’d look elsewhere, but he’s a premium gun for the future. 

It’d take a brave coach to reach blind and trade into Lachie Whitfield. He’s been played out of position and been sore for chunks of the 2022 season. As a result, his fantasy footy scores have seen more ‘lows’ than ‘highs.’ But historically, Lachie’s got the capabilities to be the top-scoring defensive option in the game. It’s a risk vs rewards decision for coaches. The encouraging sign is that we’ve seen the correction of both Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio under the new coaching regime back to their strongest roles, and the premium scoring has followed them. Will the same happen for Whitfield? Let’s hope so. 

Over the preseason, arguably the most hyped player was Zak Butters and his evolution into the midfield. While the midfield minutes are there, his inconsistency in scoring is still like a rollercoaster, with nearly 100 points the variation between his highest and lowest scores of the year. A three-round average of 108 in SuperCoach and 90 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam is good, but I’d be hesitant to want to bring him into my side. He’s got the capacity to be a top tier forward on the run home, but he’s just as likely to disappoint coaches on the run home. He’s fine to hold if you own, but it might be wise to continue on that path if you’ve avoided him to date. 

You’ve got to admire what Travis Boak has done over the past few seasons. He’s been one of the most reliable 100+ performers across all game formats. This year he’s still been good with some monster scores, including a 150+ performance back in round two. He’s dropped about $100k across the formats, so he does represent value. But this year, more than recently, Port is spreading the load away from the heavy dependency on himself and Ollie Wines. The Power fixture does look quite tricky over the next six weeks for midfielders. After tonight’s clash with the Tigers, they play Sydney, Gold Coast, Fremantle, GWS and Melbourne. He’s certainly an option, but I like others more, including his Brownlow winning teammate.

When Port Adelaide drafted RUC/FWD Brynn Teakle last week, it was a huge win for coaches. This is for two reasons! Firstly, he’s a RUC/FWD DPP, which enables coaches to move Tim English easily into either of these positions should coverage be needed. Second, he’s also at a team where he’s a genuine chance to pinch a game or two. Sam Hayes has been left out of the side this week, while Scott Lycett is still four weeks away. If you have Sam Hayes at R3, even if Teakle doesn’t play, it’s quite a good trade move. It opens up cash for upgrades and squad versatility. #Winning

Over the past 18 months, the top fantasy selection from Port Adelaide has been Ollie Wines. His seasonal average is down significantly compared to last year, but that’s due to an injury affected game against Melbourne in round four where he got subbed out. Excluding that game, he’s averaging 105 in AFLFantasy & 110 in SuperCoach. He presents value given his non-injury affected average & is someone to seriously consider if you believe he and the pear can get back to previous seasons performances. 

When the round 12 lockouts lifted, plenty of coaches went straight into their midfield and traded into Zach Merrett. And with good reason to, for the better part of his career, he’s been one of the safest 110+ averaging players in the game. A sub 60 score in round nine against the Swans is the primary driver behind his current price point. Outside of that game, his lowest score in AFLFantasy is 92 & SuperCoach it’s 99. The fixture ahead isn’t easy for the Dons, but of all their midfielders, he’s the most bulletproof for scoring and has the best scoring basement. A perfect example of ‘buy low’ on premiums and get an outperforming return on investment.

It feels odd to say this after his breakout year in 2021, but people are sleeping on Darcy Parish this year. He’s currently on a run of eight consecutive SuperCoach hundreds, with the lowest being a 109. The 10% of coaches currently owning have loved his season, given he also hasn’t dropped his scores under 97. In AFLFantasy, he’s had some more lowly basement games but still hasn’t fallen under 80 all season. Of his eight tons this year, six have been over 110, including a 131 & 146. It might be tough to pay up to him when his teammate listed above is of insane value. But he’s a prospect to consider for those with no salary cap worries. 

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Some potential value might tempt some with Mason Redman. He’s scored two tons and an extra over 90 across the formats in his past three. However, as good as his form has been, I wouldn’t be targeting him in classic. The potential volatility of Essendon gives me no confidence in trading into him.

You want premiums to be captaincy candidates when you pay the top price for a midfielder. Brad Crouch has had a strong season; in SuperCoach, he’s scored six tons and has had one score under 96 all season. In AFLFantasy, he’s also posted six tons and dropped his scoring below 87 just once. However, despite his good season to date, he’s still just averaging 104-105 across the formats. So as good as he’s been, he’s not a captain option, nor is he a value pickup. Therefore, it’s hard to get behind it. 

If there’s one St Kilda player you want to trade into, it’s Jack Sinclair. The running machine is ranked fourth in SuperCoach and fifth in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam for defenders. But it’s his more recent form that’s got coaches salivating at the possibility of trading into him. Over the past three matches, he’s got the highest average among all defenders across the formats. He’s been running at an average of 128 in SuperCoach and 118 in AFLFantasy. He’s not cheap, but he’s been an absolute beast this year. 

Ever since Paddy Ryder became a Saint, it’s been well documented that Rowan Marshall’s scores are heavily impacted when Ryder plays versus when he misses. This year he’s averaging 17.2 points per game less in AFLFantasy and 21.3 in SuperCoach when Ryder plays. So unless Paddy is missing major chunks of the run home, I cannot advocate for trading into Rowan Marshall. 

From the current reports, Jack Steele is still a few weeks off from returning. You should have completed your midfield by the time he’s ripe and ready. Perhaps a luxury trade target later on or if a premium cops an injury or suspension. 

AAMI Community Series Review | Hawks Vs Tigers

It was a young Hawthorn unit taking on an experienced Richmond outfit. The result was no surprise, but we learnt plenty from a fantasy footy perspective.

Josh Ward

Arguably the biggest takeaway from the game. Lock in Josh Ward. He was sensational across the game, in my eyes he was the best Hawk on the ground. Ward won plenty of the ball, he made good decisions both with and without the footy & is a certainty to play round one.

Connor Nash

Late last year the Hawks started to deploy Nash as a centre bounce midfielder. That role was evident yet again throughout this match. As a forward listed player player he could be a viable stepping stone for us to consider. The challenge with going ’all in’ on him in salary cap formats is that the Hawks were without Mitchell and O’Meara. How much of this role is the Hawks new normal? Or was he only given the heavy midfield minutes due to the absence of options? Sadly, we won’t know for certain until four rounds into the season.

Jai Newcombe

Took his time to build into the game, but as the final siren went it was evident as to why Sam Mitchell is such a fan of his. Jai adds a defensive hard edge to the midfield and will allow other Hawk mids to play to their offensive best. I don’t mind him as a late draft pickup.

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James Sicily

The Tigers had a super tall forward line with Riewoldt, Lynch, Balta & a resting ruck all inside 50. As a result, Sicily had to play a more accountable role and found less opportunities to peel off and intercept. Other opposition teams won’t play this many tall forwards, that means he should be freed to play his standard intercepting role. James offers excellent value and with the lack of cheap options in the backline he’s someone that every coach needs to consider regardless of the format.

Connor MacDonald

The year of expensive cash cows continues with Connor plying his craft across the game. He looks was a fantasy star as a junior and we saw glimpses of it as the game went on. He’s already been hyped for a round one debut, and did his chances no harm with this game. I believe the hawks will be pushing to get 50+ games into him, Jai & Josh as a midfield trio as quickly as possible. If named round one, he’s a good chance to get multiple games early.

Noteable Outs

Tom Mitchell & Jaeger O’Meara

Dustin Martin

Dusty played… He looked good, and with so many doubts on forward premos he could just be the safest building block in this line.

Hugo Ralphsmith

Much has been made about the lack of cows in 2022. As a result, anyone priced under $300k that looks like they’ll get games we need to seriously consider. He’s available to be picked as a MID/FWD but is playing predominantly off halfback. I’ve been impressed with his development in the offseason, and as good as he’s looked I still have a slight concern. That is he’s a possible sub candidate most weeks. If named one round, I can see plenty making room for him at F5 or F6.

Trent Cotchin

Not fantasy relevant, but when he’s fit and firing he’s so important to the Tigers structure. If he can get 20+ games then for those hoping for Richmond to miss finals again you might find yourselves disappointed.

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Jayden Short

Over the past few years Jayden has shown he’s a genuine top tier defensive premium. This match just sent up a massive flare around just how good he can be. If you were hot on him before this match, understandably nothing has changed.

Daniel Rioli

Seems to finally has found his feet in the Tigers defensive 6. I couldn’t touch him in salary gap formats, but late on draft day he could be a brilliant flyer.

#39 Most Relevant | Jayden Short

With Bachar Houli departing the club, many fantasy football coaches expect Jayden Short to take the next step as a premium defender. But will he be able to push his average over 100 in 2021?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jayden Short
Age: 25
Club: Richmond Tigers
Position: Defender

2021 Highest Score: 
122 Vs West Coast (AFLFantasy)
129 Vs Collingwood (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
122 Vs West Coast | AFLFantasy (2021)
169 Vs Geelong | SuperCoach (2020)

2021 Average: 
93.3 (AFLFantasy)
98.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $535,200
AFLFantasy Price: $783,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $796,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Over the past few years, Jayden Short has emerged from fringe option role player to a core member of the Tigers defensive six. Short is an elite rebounding defender who offers an elite run & carry game and quality decision-making and ball use. Last season in the league, he ranked third for the total number of rebound ’50s, sixth for kicks and bounces and tenth for total metres gained. The departure of some of their aging premiership starts does hurt Richmond, but with him still just 25 years of age, the future is still bright at Tiger land. He’s only now just starting to hit the peak of his powers.

Playing all 22 games last year, Short returned another strong AFLFantasy/DreamTeam season. He posted nine tons, five additional scores 90 plus and only dipped his scoring beanth 80 in four games all year. He’s currently ranked tenth for averages and the sixth-best defender; Short scored 100 more points than Jordan Dawson, who we highlighted just days ago in this series.

The story is just as promising in SuperCoach. By averages based on his 2021 scoring, he’s the sixth-best defender in the game for total points and ranked eleventh for averages. He posted twelve tons, four of the above 120 and just had five games all year where he failed to score over 80. He ended the season with an average of 98.

These numbers have further enhanced his premium status after a breakout in 2020. That year he again played all 17 games, averaged 97 in SuperCoach, scored seven tons, and had three sub 80 scores. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged an adjusted 91 (93 pure) and scored four times over 80, remembering that in the shorter quarters season, that ’80 was the 100 of 2020.’

Increasingly over the past two years, the club has looked to him as the key user out of Defensive 50. And arguably, this could further increase with the departure of Bachar Houli. Historically, Richmond isn’t a fantasy friendly scoring team, but With no Houli, he could have a monopoly as the primary rebounding and distribution avenue.

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MY TAKE

So no Bachar Houli through retirement, that must mean we see a bump for Jayden Short? Statistically, there are grounds for that case to be made. In twelve games he played with Houli last year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 91.8 & 92.8 in SuperCoach. And for the ten matches he played without him, he averaged 3.4 more points per game in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 12.3 points in SuperCoach. If that small sample size of games holds, that means he could elevate his game to be above 105 in SuperCoach and to touch 100 in AFLFantasyDreamTeam. It’s limited data, but small trends like this can make significant differences for coaches. And given his relatively low ceiling, it’s stats like this that might see him start to turn his 80 games into 90-95’s and his 105-110’s in 120+ performances.

When I look at the defenders available to use this season, I can only see a few defenders with legacy scoring capabilities to average near or over 110. They are Lachie Whitfield, Jake Lloyd and Aaron Hall. All have either seasons (or large portions of one) where they’ve delivered this. However, beyond them, I see a bunch of very talented and reliable scorers, but none that might ‘burn’ me if I go against them in my starting squad. It’s why a combination of Hall/Whitfield/Lloyd can appear to be popular when you look at other coaches teams.

In 2022 we’ve got plenty of consistent 90+ defenders across the formats with players like Daniel Rich, Jack Crisp, Jordan Dawson, Tom Stewart, Dyson Heppell etc. But there’s not a bounty of defenders seemingly able to take the next step into the next level. For coaches to have confidence in starting Short over some of these other options, they’ll need a narrative of how Jayden could outperform them. At 25 years of age, I don’t see a world where scoring regression hits. So the only direction of his scoring is to hold or increase.

Short already has the majority share of the kick-ins. He took 115 last year, Nick Vlastuin is the next in line, but with just 40 all year, it’s a long gap between the two. And the 28 Houli take might be enough to boost Jayden’s Short marginally, but I wouldn’t bank on it making a significant jump in scores.

Will coaches have the luxury to start three premium defensive options this year? Ultimately, it’s still too early to tell. In January every year, it’s easy to build an exciting squad with every cash cow you pick that are ‘certain to play’. But as the weeks go by, suddenly, certain lines stand out for the best value stepping stones and the cash cows with the best scoring and security. So suddenly, your two premium defender lines and six premium midfield line might need some tweaking.

Can he emerge and crack the magically 100 average? I can see a world where this can happen. And the absence of Houli makes that much easier to see. For me, Jayden Short is right in the mix at D3 across all game formats. The downside feels like he’ll hold, but if he gets any of the upsides mentioned above, coaches might have atop five defenders for the season.

DRAFT DECISION

Given where his 2021 averages land him, Jayden Short will be a D1 on draft day. It wouldn’t shock me if someone reached for him as a late third-round selection. But the reality is it’s more normative to see him go through the fourth. I can’t see him sliding outside of the top 40-45 picks overall. He’s too durable and consistent to pass up.

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Keeper League Ranks | Tier Five | Patreon Exclusive

Kane and MJ continue on their ranking of the keeper leagues. This tier has nearly 1/5 of the entire list in this tier. Check out who we have and why

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Taylor Adams

KANEOh, Taylor Adams, where do we start? Let’s go with the positives first, such is my nature. 
Simply put, the guy scores when he plays a full game. In the final nine games of 2021 he averaged 108 points and delivered seven tons. In 2017 he played every game and averaged 115 points and in 2020 he played all 17 games in the shortened format and delivered an adjusted average of 114. Those are uber numbers for any fantasy player.
The negative is his availability. Outside of 2017 and 2020 where he didn’t miss a game, Adams other games tallies since 2016 are 14, 19, 10 and 14 respectively. That’s way too much missed time and exactly why he isn’t in the higher tiers. You just can’t guarantee he’ll be as available for 85% of the season. 
Adams scoring power will always warrant a high pick and can certainly yield high returns but you’d want to support him with some durable premiums and a deep bench to not leave yourself exposed in the midfield. 
MJHe has the scoring power of a top two or three tier player, but he’s got the career injury concerns that mean picking Taylor Adams too high in a new keeper could be catastrophic. 
Since debuting TayTay has just two seasons where he’s played every match possible. Of the other 8 seasons, he’s missed anywhere from 3 to 12 games per year. 
The thing that you have to love about Adams is his relentless ability to score well. Since 2015 his seasonal averages hasn’t dropped below 90. 
Last year he averaged 100, but his final 10 games were fire. He scored 8 tons, with four of them over 115. At 28 years old he’s still worth the draft capital in this tier. At best he’ll give you 3-4 years of a certain 100 average. 
At worst, well it’s injury affected, but my encouragement if picking him or any player with a poor injury history is to support this draft pick with another pick. Select an extra midfielder, create security for yourself as history says you’ll need the cover multiple times. 
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Ollie Wines

KANEWhat a season 2021 was for Ollie Wines. A Brownlow Medal and a career-best fantasy year has him in the top 50 keeper prospects for the first time since 2016 for mine. 
After seven solid years of averaging between 90-100, Wines exploded to average 112 points in 2021 while playing every home and away game for the first time since 2018.
It’s no surprise with an 112 average that we saw both Wines’ floor and ceiling rise this year. His lowest score was 70 points but in 20 games he scored more than 90 points and 15 of those were triple figures. 
His ceiling was on full display in the second half of the season. Pre-bye he averaged 106 points but post-bye he averaged 118 which featured his three highest scores of the year – 154, 151 and 140. 
I’d never seen Wines display the running power he demonstrated in 2021 so I think we have to declare that he’s a different player to those previous years. However, I can’t see him recreating his numbers of this year going forward. For me he’s a 100-107 option averager and an absolute rock in your midfield for another three to four years.  
MJFor years Ollie Wines has been a good, but not great keeper option. From 2014-2020 he’d consistently averaged between 91-100 and provided a level of reliability for his owners.
In 2021 the reigning Brownlow Medalist found another gear. He averaged career high possession numbers (32), up to five per game from his previous best year. In addition to this, his uncontested and mark count were personal bests. In short. Ollie developed an outside part to his game, where he no longer become an ‘inside bull’ only, but a rounded midfielder. 
It’s no surprise he averaged 112, score 15 tons and dropped his scoring beneath 85 just once. 
At 26, we’ve still got 5-6 years of peak Wines performances. But will they be close to his Brownlow year or the previous 5 seasons? For me, I believe it’s somewhere between the two. 
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Caleb Daniel

KANECaleb Daniel and Jayden Short I’m going to couple together because from a fantasy perspective they deliver basically the exact same thing. 
25 years of age: comfortably five years of premium output ahead Long term defenders: no concern about losing back statusPremium scorers: they’ve already demonstrated 85+ scoring and are in their prime now High floor, low ceiling: both only hit 120+ once in 2021 but also they rarely scored under 80 (Short did it four times, Daniel six)
I’m not going to waste words here. With Daniel and Short you’re getting a year-in year-out top 10 defender for the next five years. 
MJDid you watch the Grand Final? If you did, I probably don’t need to create much more of a compelling case for you to own Caleb Daniel than that game. 
The bulldogs love to get the ball into his hands to create both rebounds off defensive 50, but also damaging plays heading into their own attacking half. 
Since making the transition to the backline he’s averaged 93, 88 (BCV), and last season an 86. 
Daniel does possess a higher range of scoring deviation than I’d like, but like with anyone who can throw up a poor sub 50 score, you need to be able to counter it with some 120+ performances to balance that out. Thankfully for Daniel, he can do that.
At 25, he’s still got another 6-7 seasons of playing that core distributor role for the Doggies and for as long as he plays as a defender, he’ll be one of the safest 85+ averaging backs you’ll get in a keeper league. 
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Jayden Short

KANECaleb Daniel and Jayden Short I’m going to couple together because from a fantasy perspective they deliver basically the exact same thing. 
25 years of age: comfortably five years of premium output ahead Long term defenders: no concern about losing back statusPremium scorers: they’ve already demonstrated 85+ scoring and are in their prime now High floor, low ceiling: both only hit 120+ once in 2021 but also they rarely scored under 80 (Short did it four times, Daniel six)
I’m not going to waste words here. With Daniel and Short you’re getting a year-in year-out top 10 defender for the next five years. 
MJAs Kane has highlighted, the parallels between Caleb Daniel and Jayden Short are scarily similar. 
Jayden is rated elite in the league for meters gained, disposals and rebound 50’s. Further to these elite ratings, his kick to handball ratio is 3:1. Which is perfect for us keeper coaches. 

Since the start of 2020 Short hasn’t missed a game. That year he averaged 90.87 in a BCV equivalent.  To further prove it wasn’t a scoring anomaly 
In 2021 he averaged 93. That consisted of nine tons, and in just two occasions did his scoring dip sub 70.
At 26 years of age at the start of next season, not only is in his prime of scoring he’s also got long term defensive positional stability. GUN! 
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Max Gawn

KANEMax Gawn’s keeper stock obviously isn’t what it was three to four seasons ago but he’s still one of the best rucks in the game and a player that goes a long way to winning now. 
Despite Gawn hitting 30 years of age prior to the 2022 season commencing there’s no signs of deterioration in his game. Gawn delivered a 109 average in 2021 across all 22 home and away games. Gawn’s floor was remarkable again in 2021 with only three scores sub 90 (72, 73 and 84) to go with 15 tons (four of which were 130+). 
There’s some concern in the community that Luke Jackson’s continual growth will severely hamper Gawn’s scoring but I don’t see the major dip. We have to remember that 2022 is only season three for Jackson so he’s still a number of years away from taking the burden of a No. 1 ruck role. A positive for Gawn owners may arrive in 2024 in the form of forward status as Jackson continues to see more centre bounce action. 
It’s probably wishful thinking to expect more than three premium seasons out of Gawn but even if it’s just two I think you can push hard in that time with him to secure a premiership. 
MJAre his best years really behind him? It’s a narrative in the community, but I think it’s false.  Check out these seasonal averages  
2018: Avg 1112019: Avg 1112020: Avg 123.6 BCV2021: 108 AVG – 3 scores below 90, 15 tons, 5 120+
As Kane has touched on, his average from this season is much more aligned with the ‘normative’ scoring for gawn rather than his exceptional 2020. 
No doubt there’ll be ruck sharing with Luke Jackson, both as he develops but also as the Demons try to prepare Max for a big few years of premiership defence. 
A potential positive is he’ll likely end career as RUC/FWD DPP. The question Gawn owners need to ponder is how quickly (if at all) you handcuff him to Luke Jackson?
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Rowan Marshall

KANEIt’s when not if for Rowan Marshall in a keeper. The fact that he’ll be 26 years of age at the start of 2022 and has already delivered premium numbers in the past three seasons is remarkable. 
The clear handbrake that every Marshall owner is waiting to be released is Paddy Ryder. While Ryder is in the Saints team he’ll be their primary centre bounce ruckman as that’s the best part of his game. This currently has relegated Marshall to second-fiddle and spending the bulk of his time forward. 
The positive with Marshall’s current role is that he’s a ruck-forward and yet he can still score. The season that will see Marshall’s stock rise to an all-time high will be the year he’s primary ruck and starts the season with forward status. That one year will be a massive advantage for the coach that owns him but even after that I see him as a 100 averaging ruck and that’s a piece that will hold any side in great stead going forward.
MJThe year is 2024… which rucks are at the top of the tree?  Is Brodie Grundy  still there? Some might have Sean Darcy  or even Reilly O’Brien. All validate candidates. But I propose another option? Rowan Marshall. By then, Rowan might well be the #1 ruck option in the game.

Marshall might be sharing ruck duties with Paddy Ryder for now, but I believe in 12 months time this RUC/FWD will be playing as a sole ruck. 
In 2019 when he was solo ruck he averaged 99 and posted twelve tons.  Last year he averaged 89 from 13 games with just five tons. Here’s the interesting split, all of these hundreds were when Ryder wasn’t playing. In fact he averaged just 77 from the seven games they played together. However, in the six games he rucked solo he averaged 103.7 

The beauty of Marshall for one lucky owner is you’ll get a Unicorn season from him in the next season or two. Where he’s RUC/FWD eligible but playing as a pure ruck, meaning he’ll likely average 100+. 

Hugh McCluggage

KANEIt’s rare to see players increase their average each year but through his first five seasons that’s exactly what Hugh McCluggage has done. 
At 23 years of age and fresh off his first 100 point season McCluggage is already in rarified air. Even if he was just to maintain his current output he’d be a top 25 midfielder for the next seven years, which can’t be understated. 
I do think there’s a bit more improvement in McCluggage though. Currently, he plays predominantly an outside role but he’s certainly capable of playing on the inside if required and it will only take a couple more CBA’s to push his average to 105 and then he’s inside the top 20. 
The other factor you have to love about McCluggage is his availability. In the past four seasons he’s played every game bar one! 
While he might never deliver a 110+ season I think his reliability and availability will make him an excellent keeper for many years to come. 
MJI’m not sold Hugh McCluggage ever gives us the monster 110-115+ season, that’s due to him likely being more outside impacting midfielder. But that said, I don’t see him dropping under 95-105 for the next 8 seasons.
Last season he averaged 100, it included thirteen tons, eight of these were over 110, and just twice last season his scoring dipped under 74. 
This is a breakdown of his scoring spread from last season: 50% from kicks, 16% HB, 15% marks, 14% tackles, 3% goals. That’s a player who’s not dependent on one ‘variable’ to score.  An unheralded stat line for Hugh is around his durability. In the past four seasons missed one game. 
The human suitcase may never become the ‘monster’ elite like others on this list, but he will be a crucial cog in keeper leagues for the better part of a decade. 
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Caleb Serong

KANEWhat Caleb Serong has already demonstrated in his first two seasons is phenomenal. Since earning his debut in Round 4 last year Serong hasn’t missed a game, playing 36 straight. 
In that time he’s already shown a massive ceiling. In Round 6 this year against North Melbourne he scored 143 points on the back of 35 disposals, seven marks and seven tackles. For comparison, fellow Tier 5 midfielder Hugh McCluggage has a career-high of 128 points despite playing another 70 games. 
It wasn’t just a one-off either with Serong reeling off back to back to back tons to finish the season (118, 117 and 116 in Round 21-23). In addition, to a ton and three 90s in the reduced gametime of the 2020 season.
While the departure of Adam Cerra will certainly help Serong I don’t see it as the main reason for his improvement in 2022 and beyond. The real upside for Serong is that his time on ground is extremely low (70% range) and that should continue to increase as he gets more preseasons under his belt. The other thing that will help Serong is his role. This year he was tasked with numerous run-with roles in the early part of the year before being released to hunt the ball in the later part of the year. I believe that was all part of his learning and won’t be something we see often going forward. 
At 20 years of age there’s a decade of 100+ scoring on the horizon for this Fremantle rising star. 
MJNailing the picks inside the top 50 of a brand new keeper is critical to immediate and sustained success. Caleb Serong has the forecast potential to be among one of the best players in the years to come. 
If you want a long term 105 averaging midfield with potential for more you’ve got to jump ahead of where a redraft or seasonal draft league board would rank them. 
Last year he split his season playing some defensive minded midfield roles before being released in the last month. It was his final three weeks where he scored 18, 117 & 116 that really caught people’s attention. Across the 2021 year he averaged 82, which was made up of five tons including a personal best 143. 
In a BCV era 2020 we still saw the raw potential of scoring brilliance.  That year he took six games before debuting with a BCV ton (aka an 80+) score. But it was back to back 90’s before he scored a pure 101 (aka 120 in BCV world). 
He’ll get plenty of preseason hype among the AFLFantasy community, so if you want to own him you can’t expect too many to sleep on him. 
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Matt Crouch

KANELet’s start with the positives surrounding Matt Crouch. From 2017 to 2020 he averaged between 105-110 points and played 90 percent of games. Throw into the mix that he’s 26 years old and should have 3+ years of elite scoring ahead of him, you’d be fair to ask why he’s not in a higher tier.
Well that’s where we do have to address the negatives. When you miss a whole season through injury, alarm bells are rightly going to go off. Particularly, when the injury is a groin and is prone to linger and re-occur. 
There’s also some concern around how Adelaide will structure their midfield and amount of opportunity Crouch may get with Laird and Keays coming off impressive seasons and the plethora of youth the Crows are trying to develop. I still believe Crouch is one of their top centre bounce midfielders but any dip in attendance would negatively impact his scoring. 
Hopefully by the time you have to make a decision on drafting/trading Crouch we have an update on how his body is progressing through the preseason. Clearly there’s some massive risk if he’s unable to get on the park but there’s also plenty of upside with his scoring power. 
MJOne of the greatest dangers in keepers is that with established players you go ‘too far back’ in their scoring history. By osmosis, you can start to value them at a potentially inflated price and begin paying a draft position based on who they’ve been not what they’ll deliver. 
In the case of Matt Crouch, I don’t believe that’s a risk you need to worry about. At 26, he’s still right in the prime of his career and should he 
Looking back at his most recent season, 2020 was a bizarre season for Crouch. Before getting dropped in round four due to poor form, Crouch was averaging 64.3 (80 adjusted) and had a top score of 72. When he returned in round five he scored 4 tons, 4 additional scores over 90, 2 over 80 and had the lowest score of 75. In these final 13 matches, he averaged 93.9 (adjusted 117)
The years prior he averaged 106, 104 & 106. Clearly, the risk with Crouch isn’t scoring ability, it’s what level does he return to post a season ruined by injury? That is the big question coaches will need to answer before investing in him.
SuperCoach Season Wrap | 2021

Supercoach Season Wrap | 2021

With the Supercoach season complete what better time than now to do a review. After all, the clubs are doing their performance reviews this week (some better than others by the sounds) so why wouldn’t we serious coaches do the same!

This season wrap looks at two things. (1) What was; that is, the players’ scoring and how it all ended up in terms of rankings. And (2), what could’ve been; those opportunities that were provided for us or those harsh realities of injury and selection that dealt us a tough blow. This is probably the more triggering part as we look back on our decision-making and the bad luck we were hit with. 

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What Was – The Player Rankings

Defenders

Rory Laird was the best defender by quite a margin, averaging 116 from 22 games. He was also the ninth best midfielder too, and as a DPP he was an extremely valuable player to have in our side. It’s no wonder nearly 60% of us had him. 

In somewhat of a surprise Daniel Rich took out the second best defender position. He was only owned by 13% of teams, and that’s at the end of the season. His form was solid and he ended up with an average of 107.  

Jack Crisp is also a tad surprising given other defensive options we had. With Darcy Moore’s injury Crisp had a terrific second half of the season and ended with an average of 104. He was only owned by 6.9% of teams in the end and puts himself in contention for our 2021 squads. 

Jake Lloyd was basically a lock at the start of the season with 50% of teams selecting him for round one. He didn’t have the year he had last year, but nonetheless he still averaged 107.8 and was the fourth best defender. A good pre-season and he’ll be a shoe-in again next year. 

His teammate, Jordan Dawson, has had a great season to average 101 and take the fifth best defender. He wasn’t particularly consistent but had some big number games, including the final round. Only 2% of coaches had him and they would have benefited greatly. 

To make up the final six is Jayden Short. He averaged 98.3 but caused his coaches a wide range of emotions with his up and down scoring. His solid performance meant he nudged out the likes of Tom Stewart, Jordan Ridley, and Callum Mills, all of whom had good but injury (or COVID) impacted years. 

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Midfielders

It’s no surprise that Jack Macrae takes out the number one midfield spot, as he’s also the number ranked player across the board. He continues to put together strong seasons and is a lock in most starting lineups. His average of 128 and his durability to play 22 games will continue to keep him in the mix for a few years yet. 

Jack Steele had another great season, ranked number two in the midfield and had his ownership gradually increase as the season went on. This season showed his ceiling and a solid VC/C option for coaches. 

Clayton Oliver had another great season, albeit there were times as a Clarrie owner where I felt his form dipped when I needed him to perform. His average of 123 is nothing to smirk at though, and it’s no wonder he is owned by nearly 40% of teams. 

The Bont, Marcus Bontempelli, is another midfielder who is often one of the first picked in any side. He shared plenty of points with his teammates and was a regular top scorer for the Bulldogs. For 2022 he’ll be priced very competitively and plenty will jump on early if this year’s form is anything to go by. 

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Each year we’re looking for that breakout player and for our midfielders this year that man was Touk Miller. There’s not much to write home about coming out of the Gold Coast Suns, but Miller’s form and solid scoring week in and week out proved that this year was a big one. In the end he averaged 124.5 and was the fifth best ranked midfielder. At the end of the season only 9% of us coaches ended up with him in our side so he continued to be a POD right up until the end. Another to look to start for 2022, albeit at a high price.

Another POD for the season came out of the Brisbane Lions. Jarryd Lyons ended up with 12% ownership and performed solidly throughout, showing off some terrific ceiling on his way to an average of 117.6. 

Other honourable mentions in our midfields are the likes of Tom Mitchell, Sam Walsh, Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish, and Ollie Wines. All of these guys averaged over 112 and played 22 games. It will be a hard decision to work out who to include in our starting teams next season. 

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Rucks

For the first time in a couple of years the final ruck rankings do not start with Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy. 

Gawn did take out the number one ruck position, however it wasn’t as dominant as previous seasons. This was his lowest average (120) since injury impacted the 2017 season (97). Nevertheless, he was a set and forget option and continues to be for 2022, particularly with a lower starting price than this year. 

Nic Naitanui managed to take the second top ruck spot with some great scores and a full season of games. He’s often left off the Supercoach analysis as a sure thing because of previous injury affected seasons, and there’s a sense of not being able to trust him. This season proved he could do the job and will be a good price come 2022 that will make many consider more than they did this year. 

The breakout player for our ruck lines was easily Sean Darcy. Perhaps it’s because he plays for a team in the West that many coaches don’t consider him, but even as we close out the season he is only owned by 3% of teams. As a highlight, his 193 and 187 in rounds 16 and 17 were gems and turned heads throughout the SC community. One to ponder for 2022 for sure. 

Brodie Grundy didn’t really have the season we expected of him, particularly after that neck injury. He still managed an average of 115 from 20 games, and quite some way in front of the likes of Todd Goldsteain (100.8) and Tom Hickey (103.3).

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Forwards

The forward lines were the most troubling of the lot for us, if I remember rightly. There weren’t many on offer, nor were there decent enough rookie options throughout the season, and there were plenty of injuries affecting forwards or DPP’s. 

However, Dayne Zorko showed up to take the number one forward position (keeping in mind he’s a DPP). He has had a good ceiling for many years and a solid performer for many teams. His average of 109 was competitive, but also pushed higher with games of 140, 162, and 173. He can have an off day and when he does it can make a significant impact on our side. However, with Lachie Neale out for a good chunk of time during the season Zorko played alongside Lyons and shared the points with him often enough. 

Do you remember the whole debate about whether to bring Jack Ziebell in or not, particularly after the start he had? By the end of round six he was averaging 127! His scoring wasn’t sustainable, but in the end he was able to keep the second best ranking for a forward through the league, which is impressive given he claimed a wooden spoon and played off half back most of the time. 

Ziebell’s teammate Aaron Hall came in as the best third forward, averaging 105 from 20 games. Not being selected for round one, and his first 3-4 performances really put people off jumping on him quickly. However, since Round 7 he only dipped below 100 once and so made his position secure in plenty of teams and was a solid player for those 18% of coaches that had him. 

Bailey Dale knocked together a solid season. His average was only 95 in the end but he was a decent enough replacement for Josh Dunkley when he went down with injury. 

It’s not all that common to have a true key forward in the top player rankings by the end of the season but Tom Hawkins makes it to number five with an average of 93.9. With the start of the season that Taylor Walker had we may have expected him to still be up here, but that form certainly didn’t continue. However, Hawkins made it this year because plenty of other forwards didn’t average their usual or what was expected of them. 

The breakout player in our forward lines was certainly Essendon’s Nick Hind. A couple of pre-seasons now, and a full season of games into him and look what happens. He only averaged 93.0 but made it into the sixth best forward for the season. In the end only 8% of coaches had him, and were rewarded for their risk-taking. 

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What Could Have Been – The Injuries and Selections

SuperCoach is always a game of what could’ve been. There are sliding door moments each and every week as we navigate trades, captain selections, and strategies around injuries and suspensions. What could have been makes for some of the best banter about Supercoach. 

In 12 years of playing the game I can’t quite remember such a volatile season with injuries, selections (and those dreaded late-outs), and of course this COVID thing. Let me just list off those players who may have impacted you at some point, perhaps even as far back as the pre-season: Lachie Whitfield, Patrick Dangerfield, Matt Rowell, Josh Dunkley, Zac Butters, Bachar Houli, Darcy Moore, Lachie Neale, Jeremy Howe, Luke Ryan, Patrick Cripps, Jordan Ridley, Mitch Duncan, Josh Kelly, Rowan Marshall, Nat Fyfe, Toby Greene, Sam Docherty, Hugh Greenwood, Callum Mills, Dustin Martin, and Tom Stewart. That’s a fairly long list of significant players who were out for a period of time. It was carnage for a few coaches regularly throughout the season. 

On the other side of the ledger there are always those precious rookies and mid-pricers who seem to do more than we think they’re capable of. Think of the Hawthorn duo, Changkuoth Jiath and Jarman Impey. They both made coaches some solid points in the first half of the season and plenty of coin to trade with as well. As mentioned previously, a Crisp, Dawson, Mills type helped considerably along the way. The Sydney rookie midfielders were very serviceable in those opening six rounds, Braedan Campbell, Chad Warner, and Errol Gulden.

James Jordon certainly provided some points and cash for those who timed it right, and North Melbourne’s Tom Powell did the same. And of course, one of the bigger targets for many coaches at the start was Matt Flynn, an R2 strategy for many in the end. He managed to grab the coin we needed but was omitted for a couple of weeks there which raised concerns come bye time. Those mid-pricers or competitive priced players who made good on their promising risk were the likes of Dyson Heppell, Darcy Parish, Nick Hind, Aaron Hall, and perhaps Jordan De Goey for his second half of season. 

Needless to say, there were some breakouts, there were some flops, but whatever the case it was another season to learn from and take the opportunity to improve on for next season. It’s those could’ve and should’ve moments that may make us shudder, but at the end of the day we’ve got to keep it all in perspective and they provide any chance to learn for next year. And sometimes it’s just unlucky. With this in mind, rest easy from Supercoach and sit and enjoy the promising finals series. Well done again on making it through the season, and all the best in your pre-season preparations for 2021. 

SuperCoach Weekend Wrap Up | Round 8

If it feels to you like this past weekend was ‘meh’ then you’re right. It was. There wasn’t much to write home about. I mean, there were a few high scores here and there but nothing out-of-the-box. 

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Friday night started with a great performance by Geelong to well and truly knock off the reigning premiers. Shai Bolton has to have all but locked up the mark of the year, and a good showing score wise makes him an option to consider as permanent for our forward lines. Although now that I wake on Tuesday morning I read that he’s broken his hand after a nightclub incident. Ignore the previous sentence. Jayden Short continues to tempt us with a 98 and now a BE of 69. Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron scored really well for the 3% of coaches that have them. And Mitch Duncan and Cam Guthrie continue their excellent season. 

St Kilda came from behind to defeat Gold Coast. Jack Billings put up good numbers and Jack Steele did as was expected of him. Touk Miller is also putting together a consistent season and is now ranked the 10th best midfielder in the competition.

The Giants pipped the Dons with Tim Taranto and Josh Kelly leading their teams’ scores. Another good week for all those Kelly owners, and is a steal at 511k for all those who don’t have him. Typical of Essendon was Zac Merrett and Darcy Parish’s run of form, doing what we now expect. 

Collingwood met expectations as they knocked off North Melbourne. Ziebell clocked up another ton and is now the number one ranked forward. Aaron Hall looks like an interesting prospect for our forward lines too. He’s been scoring well recently and at only $419k might come into consideration for some. Darcy Moore top scored for Collingwood, playing back where he needs to be. Think of all the points we could have right now had Bucks been playing him in position! And I can’t go past this match without mentioning Jordan De Goey. Last week I threw up the question of whether he was someone to consider for our forward line. By this week’s result it seems he might be. I mean, he did have to kick 6 goals to score 118. Nevertheless, he’s now $296K with a BE of 6. Decisions, decisions. 

Saturday night saw Melbourne defeat Sydney in a great contest. Clayton Oliver, Christian Salem, Gawn, and Harmes all scored well. Callum Mills had another great week in what is becoming a great season for him. His move to the midfield has done wonders for his scoring and he’s now ranked the number one defender. Parker, Lloyd, and Hickey all made solid contributions to our teams as well. 

Port crushed Adelaide in the showdown but there’s about as much to mention here as what should’ve been mentioned about those prison bar guernseys. Yawn. It is worth highlighting Rowe’s score of 81 though, which now looks like he’ll be making more cash for those who kept him. And it was a shame Frederick ended up being the sub, causing plenty of panic from coaches. 

The Eagles over the Hawks provided Tom Mitchell with another opportunity to ask 86% of coaches why he’s not in our teams yet. The run may have begun, and his fixture looks delicious. Impey and Jiath continued in good form, I hope your team still has one of them at least. And for the Eagles Andrew Gaff returned good numbers. 

While the Bulldogs defeated the Blues it is worth pondering Jacob Weitering as another decent defender option among many. He’s been consistent for a good five weeks now. The Bont took the cake for the Doggies this week. It seems it gets shared around each week and it happened to be his turn this time. Libba and Macrae scored well too, but there were plenty of owners ruing the decision to make him captain. Oh what the scores could’ve been! And Caleb Daniel worried owners for the first half, with 17 points up to the main break, but then exploded to reach the ton. 

And finally, Brisbane nudged out Fremantle. Another ‘meh’ game but considerable scores from Jarryd Lyons, Hugh McCluggage (again!), and Daniel Rich. Daniher continues to make money for his owners and score enough points to keep him on the field. 

Last week may have been the time to use our trades to bring in some rookie talent and a premo. This week might be the time for a double-downgrade, if we can afford it, for cash generation. Remember, the byes are heading our way with speed, so if you haven’t thought about that already then it’s planning week as well. Whatever way you go, I hope you have a great week. 

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