Tag: Taylor Walker

11 players that can win you the Grand Final

This is it, the final week of fantasy football for 2023! We hope you’ve entered the Grand Final, whether it’s a draft or salary focussed. For our final article of the season, it’s time to look at 11 players that can win you the Grand Final.

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Taylor Walker

Every fantasy coach has seen this matchup since Taylor Walker dominated the Eagles in round thirteen when he kicked ten goals and posted a monster 166 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 208 in SuperCoach. With the Crows out of the finals race, the club have ultimately one thing to play for, an attempt to feed Tex the Coleman.

The former Crows skipper is eight goals behind Charlie Curnow, but with a tough matchup with Sam Taylor, the Crows will be hoping for another bag of ten goals that might be enough to hand the Texan his first-ever Coleman.

Selecting any key forward has an element of risk in the play, given their scoring is heavily linked to kicking goals. But the matchup of key position forwards against the Eagles has been a money matchup all season. All indicators available should give coaches confidence that he’s every chance of repeating his midseason scoring heroics.

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Noah Anderson

Averages mean nothing this week; with just one round to go, it’s all about what will happen in this one game and matchup. On paper, the Suns have the best matchup for all midfielders in a game against North Melbourne.

There are only so many teams outside of the top eight that have anything to play for. The Bulldogs are the only team capable of playing for finals, but the Suns have plenty to play for. They’re auditioning for new coach Damien Hardwick. I expect a ruthless edge over the Suns this week, and a midfielder like Noah Anderson could post a monster game. His combination of inside/outside skills, his elite workrate and his ability to impact the scoreboard make him a player with a deadly ceiling.

Noah’s already shown this year alone that he’s got the potential to put up some monster ceiling games. In AFLFantasy against the Saints, he scored 159, and multiple others scored over 130. While in SuperCoach, he pumped an 189 against the Demons and three additional scores north of 130. His basement is solid, and his ceiling is immense. He’s someone to consider seriously.

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Marcus Bontempelli

Marcus Bontempelli has been a SuperCoach stud for multiple years, but in 2023, he’s taken his AFLFantasy game to comparable levels of dominance. By average and points, he’s the clear tod midfielder this season. This weekend, his Bulldogs battle against the Cats for a spot in the finals; if anyone can put his team on their back and deliver a win and a monster fantasy football output, it’s the Bont. He’s given you no reason to doubt him all year; I wouldn’t be backing against him this week.

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Shannon Hurn

Fellow panellist Lewy has advocated for Shannon Hurn in a big way as a possible play this week, and it’s with good reasoning too. First and foremost, Shannon has a strong scoring historical pedigree. Even as recently as round 16, Hurn posted a 133 in AFLFantasy & 144 in SuperCoach. Second, it’s his retirement game. We’ve seen trends in such games that teammates are happy to feed the ball through departing comrades. Even last year, in a similar matchup, the Eagles fed Josh Kennedy the ball nonstop in his retirement match, and he delivered a big farewell ton.

The other factor is that for most of the year, the ball has lived in the Eagles backline, and they’re coming up against a team that’s one of the highest volume teams for inside 50 entries and scoreboard impacts. Everything points to the high probability of Shannon’s farewell game being an absolute monster. He’s been cleared by the club to play after recovering from an injury. I’m joining the chorus with Lewy; I think Shannon’s set for a big Saturday night of scoring.

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Tim English

Without question, one of the best-starting squad selections this year has been Tim English. Entering the final round, he’s the #1 overall points scorer in all game formats and has shown that regardless of his opposition, he can post a 120+ score any week. This week he comes up against a Geelong side who last week used Sam DeKoning.

He is an excellent key defender but not that level as a ruckman. Rowan Marshall dominated with a 140+ score, and with question marks over Rhys Stanley‘s ability to be right for Saturday night, the Cats might once again be forced to play SDK in the ruck or blood Toby Conway for his debut.

Either way, an underdone or highly inexperienced ruck opponent against Tim is a fantastic outcome and, with some luck, could see him post his biggest score of the season.

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Tom Stewart

Over the last two weeks in our strategy roundtable, you’ve heard MiniMonk, and I go on about how good the Cats fixture was for defenders in rounds 23 & 24. In the case of Tom Stewart, he maximised that last week against the Saints with a 133 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 128 in SuperCoach. This week Geelong plays the best matchup for defenders by taking on the Bulldogs. Last week Liam Duggan, Jayden Hunt and Jeremy McGovern scored well over their average on the Doggies. And with Stewart’s recent form, scoring history, venue scores at GMHBA, and the Bulldogs bleeding to defenders point to a monster scoring night for Tom.

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Luke Ryan

All season, there have been three great opposition matchups for defenders. A team that takes on Western Bulldogs, St. Kilda & Hawthorn all have seen statistically have scored considerably above their seasonal averages.

With just one match to go, ideally, you’re looking for players with a high-scoring ceiling and a favourable matchup. Enter Fremantle’s Luke Ryan. When the teams played against each other earlier in the season, Ryan posted a ton across the formats, but in 2023, he’s got multiple scores north of 140. Since Hayden Young has transitioned into a midfield role, the ball flows through Luke at kick-ins and in the general field of play.

If I were to speculate who could be a defender capable of scoring 150+, I’d happily place Luke inside the top five candidates this week.

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Josh Daicos

You could argue that trading into Josh Daicos is the most ‘risky’ of all eleven players I’m suggesting as trade options. And there’s validity to that. But one of the big appeals of Josh Daicos is he plays on Friday night, giving you the ease to look at his scoring as a loophole and then react accordingly with how you structure out your on-field 22 and possible other squad movements.

According to DFS Australia, one of the best matchups has been for wingmen and rebounding defenders against Essendon. Their statistical data capture shows it’s the third-best matchup over the last five weeks of footy. Earlier this year, when two teams played, Josh delivered a ton, let alone that inside the last six weeks, he’s posted multiple scores over 120 in AFLFantasy and 130 in SuperCoach. He might not be the play everyone likes, but as a combination of trade in a pairing, I believe the option of Daicos is worth consideration.

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Harris Andrews

It’s more likely to be SuperCoach favourable, but Harris Andrews could still be a monster play in AFLFantasy. On paper, the Lions opposition, St. Kilda, is the third most favourable matchup for defenders. In round fifteen, when they last played, Harris scored 157 in SuperCoach and 110 in AFLFantasy. It’d be. a brave person coach to trade into him for Classic, but as a draft pickup, it could reap huge dividends.

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Zak Butters

After a slightly quiet scoring period between rounds 15-19 for Zak Butters, it’s safe to say the past three weeks, he’s back to scoring best. Over the last three weeks in AFLFantasy, he’s averaging 121.3 and hasn’t scored below 110. While, for SuperCoach, he’s averaging 135 and a lowest score of 129.

The appeal of Zak isn’t around his ownership % and trading into him; already, his ownership is high across all formats. But the move is more about his favourable matchup against Richmond, his proven high-scoring history ceiling of 140+ scores this year, and his playing in the round’s final game.

Don’t undersell the timing of the fixture, either. While Richmond has nothing to play for, the Pear might have a top-two on the line. If Port Adelaide requires a victory, don’t be surprised if Butters & Co. go at full throttle. That could be perfect if you need a big 140+ score as a unique skipper in one of the final games of 2023.

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Josh Kelly

This might be my bias towards Josh Kelly slipping in, but this could be a steal at his price point. At $764,000 in AFLFantasy, it’s criminal how low his price is. His previous three-game average of 76.3 could be better, but his history against the Blues is amazing. Over his ten matches against Carlton, he’s got a career average of 112, and when he played them back in round three, he scored his season high of 126.

Alongside this, the Blues are building a trend of opposition midfielders scoring nicely on them. Over the past month, Sam Flanders, Jack Viney, Touk Miller, Clayton Oliver, Angus Brayshaw, Brad Crouch & Mason Wood have put in some decent-sized tons against the Blues. With the Giants season on the line and with the game the final match of the fantasy season

SuperCoach Season Wrap | 2021

Supercoach Season Wrap | 2021

With the Supercoach season complete what better time than now to do a review. After all, the clubs are doing their performance reviews this week (some better than others by the sounds) so why wouldn’t we serious coaches do the same!

This season wrap looks at two things. (1) What was; that is, the players’ scoring and how it all ended up in terms of rankings. And (2), what could’ve been; those opportunities that were provided for us or those harsh realities of injury and selection that dealt us a tough blow. This is probably the more triggering part as we look back on our decision-making and the bad luck we were hit with. 

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What Was – The Player Rankings

Defenders

Rory Laird was the best defender by quite a margin, averaging 116 from 22 games. He was also the ninth best midfielder too, and as a DPP he was an extremely valuable player to have in our side. It’s no wonder nearly 60% of us had him. 

In somewhat of a surprise Daniel Rich took out the second best defender position. He was only owned by 13% of teams, and that’s at the end of the season. His form was solid and he ended up with an average of 107.  

Jack Crisp is also a tad surprising given other defensive options we had. With Darcy Moore’s injury Crisp had a terrific second half of the season and ended with an average of 104. He was only owned by 6.9% of teams in the end and puts himself in contention for our 2021 squads. 

Jake Lloyd was basically a lock at the start of the season with 50% of teams selecting him for round one. He didn’t have the year he had last year, but nonetheless he still averaged 107.8 and was the fourth best defender. A good pre-season and he’ll be a shoe-in again next year. 

His teammate, Jordan Dawson, has had a great season to average 101 and take the fifth best defender. He wasn’t particularly consistent but had some big number games, including the final round. Only 2% of coaches had him and they would have benefited greatly. 

To make up the final six is Jayden Short. He averaged 98.3 but caused his coaches a wide range of emotions with his up and down scoring. His solid performance meant he nudged out the likes of Tom Stewart, Jordan Ridley, and Callum Mills, all of whom had good but injury (or COVID) impacted years. 

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Midfielders

It’s no surprise that Jack Macrae takes out the number one midfield spot, as he’s also the number ranked player across the board. He continues to put together strong seasons and is a lock in most starting lineups. His average of 128 and his durability to play 22 games will continue to keep him in the mix for a few years yet. 

Jack Steele had another great season, ranked number two in the midfield and had his ownership gradually increase as the season went on. This season showed his ceiling and a solid VC/C option for coaches. 

Clayton Oliver had another great season, albeit there were times as a Clarrie owner where I felt his form dipped when I needed him to perform. His average of 123 is nothing to smirk at though, and it’s no wonder he is owned by nearly 40% of teams. 

The Bont, Marcus Bontempelli, is another midfielder who is often one of the first picked in any side. He shared plenty of points with his teammates and was a regular top scorer for the Bulldogs. For 2022 he’ll be priced very competitively and plenty will jump on early if this year’s form is anything to go by. 

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Each year we’re looking for that breakout player and for our midfielders this year that man was Touk Miller. There’s not much to write home about coming out of the Gold Coast Suns, but Miller’s form and solid scoring week in and week out proved that this year was a big one. In the end he averaged 124.5 and was the fifth best ranked midfielder. At the end of the season only 9% of us coaches ended up with him in our side so he continued to be a POD right up until the end. Another to look to start for 2022, albeit at a high price.

Another POD for the season came out of the Brisbane Lions. Jarryd Lyons ended up with 12% ownership and performed solidly throughout, showing off some terrific ceiling on his way to an average of 117.6. 

Other honourable mentions in our midfields are the likes of Tom Mitchell, Sam Walsh, Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish, and Ollie Wines. All of these guys averaged over 112 and played 22 games. It will be a hard decision to work out who to include in our starting teams next season. 

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Rucks

For the first time in a couple of years the final ruck rankings do not start with Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy. 

Gawn did take out the number one ruck position, however it wasn’t as dominant as previous seasons. This was his lowest average (120) since injury impacted the 2017 season (97). Nevertheless, he was a set and forget option and continues to be for 2022, particularly with a lower starting price than this year. 

Nic Naitanui managed to take the second top ruck spot with some great scores and a full season of games. He’s often left off the Supercoach analysis as a sure thing because of previous injury affected seasons, and there’s a sense of not being able to trust him. This season proved he could do the job and will be a good price come 2022 that will make many consider more than they did this year. 

The breakout player for our ruck lines was easily Sean Darcy. Perhaps it’s because he plays for a team in the West that many coaches don’t consider him, but even as we close out the season he is only owned by 3% of teams. As a highlight, his 193 and 187 in rounds 16 and 17 were gems and turned heads throughout the SC community. One to ponder for 2022 for sure. 

Brodie Grundy didn’t really have the season we expected of him, particularly after that neck injury. He still managed an average of 115 from 20 games, and quite some way in front of the likes of Todd Goldsteain (100.8) and Tom Hickey (103.3).

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Forwards

The forward lines were the most troubling of the lot for us, if I remember rightly. There weren’t many on offer, nor were there decent enough rookie options throughout the season, and there were plenty of injuries affecting forwards or DPP’s. 

However, Dayne Zorko showed up to take the number one forward position (keeping in mind he’s a DPP). He has had a good ceiling for many years and a solid performer for many teams. His average of 109 was competitive, but also pushed higher with games of 140, 162, and 173. He can have an off day and when he does it can make a significant impact on our side. However, with Lachie Neale out for a good chunk of time during the season Zorko played alongside Lyons and shared the points with him often enough. 

Do you remember the whole debate about whether to bring Jack Ziebell in or not, particularly after the start he had? By the end of round six he was averaging 127! His scoring wasn’t sustainable, but in the end he was able to keep the second best ranking for a forward through the league, which is impressive given he claimed a wooden spoon and played off half back most of the time. 

Ziebell’s teammate Aaron Hall came in as the best third forward, averaging 105 from 20 games. Not being selected for round one, and his first 3-4 performances really put people off jumping on him quickly. However, since Round 7 he only dipped below 100 once and so made his position secure in plenty of teams and was a solid player for those 18% of coaches that had him. 

Bailey Dale knocked together a solid season. His average was only 95 in the end but he was a decent enough replacement for Josh Dunkley when he went down with injury. 

It’s not all that common to have a true key forward in the top player rankings by the end of the season but Tom Hawkins makes it to number five with an average of 93.9. With the start of the season that Taylor Walker had we may have expected him to still be up here, but that form certainly didn’t continue. However, Hawkins made it this year because plenty of other forwards didn’t average their usual or what was expected of them. 

The breakout player in our forward lines was certainly Essendon’s Nick Hind. A couple of pre-seasons now, and a full season of games into him and look what happens. He only averaged 93.0 but made it into the sixth best forward for the season. In the end only 8% of coaches had him, and were rewarded for their risk-taking. 

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What Could Have Been – The Injuries and Selections

SuperCoach is always a game of what could’ve been. There are sliding door moments each and every week as we navigate trades, captain selections, and strategies around injuries and suspensions. What could have been makes for some of the best banter about Supercoach. 

In 12 years of playing the game I can’t quite remember such a volatile season with injuries, selections (and those dreaded late-outs), and of course this COVID thing. Let me just list off those players who may have impacted you at some point, perhaps even as far back as the pre-season: Lachie Whitfield, Patrick Dangerfield, Matt Rowell, Josh Dunkley, Zac Butters, Bachar Houli, Darcy Moore, Lachie Neale, Jeremy Howe, Luke Ryan, Patrick Cripps, Jordan Ridley, Mitch Duncan, Josh Kelly, Rowan Marshall, Nat Fyfe, Toby Greene, Sam Docherty, Hugh Greenwood, Callum Mills, Dustin Martin, and Tom Stewart. That’s a fairly long list of significant players who were out for a period of time. It was carnage for a few coaches regularly throughout the season. 

On the other side of the ledger there are always those precious rookies and mid-pricers who seem to do more than we think they’re capable of. Think of the Hawthorn duo, Changkuoth Jiath and Jarman Impey. They both made coaches some solid points in the first half of the season and plenty of coin to trade with as well. As mentioned previously, a Crisp, Dawson, Mills type helped considerably along the way. The Sydney rookie midfielders were very serviceable in those opening six rounds, Braedan Campbell, Chad Warner, and Errol Gulden.

James Jordon certainly provided some points and cash for those who timed it right, and North Melbourne’s Tom Powell did the same. And of course, one of the bigger targets for many coaches at the start was Matt Flynn, an R2 strategy for many in the end. He managed to grab the coin we needed but was omitted for a couple of weeks there which raised concerns come bye time. Those mid-pricers or competitive priced players who made good on their promising risk were the likes of Dyson Heppell, Darcy Parish, Nick Hind, Aaron Hall, and perhaps Jordan De Goey for his second half of season. 

Needless to say, there were some breakouts, there were some flops, but whatever the case it was another season to learn from and take the opportunity to improve on for next season. It’s those could’ve and should’ve moments that may make us shudder, but at the end of the day we’ve got to keep it all in perspective and they provide any chance to learn for next year. And sometimes it’s just unlucky. With this in mind, rest easy from Supercoach and sit and enjoy the promising finals series. Well done again on making it through the season, and all the best in your pre-season preparations for 2021. 

2021 Season Defining Moves | Patreon Only

Whether it’s an overall ranking or league focus, achieving success in fantasy footy requires so many elements to work. One of the keys is trading in the right player at the right time. So here’s a look back at the moves that using hindsight was the season defining moves of 2021.

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Aaron Hall

If you’ve played fantasy footy for a few seasons, then you’d know that Aaron Hall has a fantasy pedigree. He spent the better part of two seasons delivering tons.

Some would say the perfect time to get Hall was at round 3, where he busted out a 99 & 123 in AFLFantasy and 81 and 131 in SuperCoach. And whole that might be a valid perspective. However, I think 2 weeks later was better. So there you got him after his concussion, and since round 7, he hasn’t had a misstep.

Since round 7, he’s scored 12 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons; 9 of these were over 120 and 5 over 120. In this run, his lowest score has been 88, and he’s averaged 118.9 in this 15 game run. For SuperCoach, over the same stretch of games, he posted 14 tons and 5 over 120. His only score under 100 has been 73, and he’s averaged 121. Safe to say, Hall might have been the most influential early trade in fantasy coaches seasons.

Josh Kelly

Josh Kelly is an absolute gun! You don’t have multiple seasons averaging 110+ across the formats and not have some fantasy footy pedigree behind you. But over the first 6 weeks of the year, the recently signed Giant for life was struggling to score. As a result, Kelly was being used predominantly across the half-forward flank and averaged 85.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 90.8 in SuperCoach.

However, in round 7, his midfield role returned. For reference, it coincided when fellow elite user Lachie Whitfield returned to the side. From round 7 to now, he’s scored 11 tons from his 14 games, including 10 consecutive from round 7-17. During this stretch of games, he’s averaging 112.

For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s had just one game in the past 14 where his scores have dipped beneath 96. An average of 111 is exactly the sort of returns we’ve come to expect from him.

Kelly’s (like all on this list) is a testament to timing and buying low on players. But, history told us, when fit, he scores very well!

Darcy Parish

Injuries create opportunity, and that’s exactly what happened for Darcy after Dylan Shiel went down with a long term injury. In round 5, Shiel went down injured, and at that point, Parish was averaging 88.2 in SuperCoach and 86 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.

From this point onwards, he’s averaged 114 in AFLFantasy, which included 11 tons, with 4 of them over 140. In SuperCoach during this same 16 game stretch in SuperCoach 110.8 including scores of 190, 166, 162 & 152.

To put it simply, in 2021, when Dylan Shiel plays, he averages 81.7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, but without him, he averages 117.7. That’s a differential of 36.1. In SuperCoach with Shiel, he averages 86, and without it’s 128.1. A differential of 42.1.

Sean Darcy

Do you remember when Brodie Grundy got injured and was ruled out just before the bye rounds? I do. I ended up writing a piece on my trade suggestions for him. In it, I said that ultimately ‘hindsight’ well tell us what’s the right move. Clearly, trading into Sean Darcy was the correct choice.

Even before this injury, Darcy was showing some scoring potential. In round 11, when the injury happened, Sean was coming off a 4 game average of 104 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 113 in SuperCoach.

However, from round 12, when the trade via Grundy could’ve been made, he’s scored 8 tons from his 10 games in SuperCoach. He hasn’t scored below 90 and has given scores of 190, 183, 156, 150 & 140. Since this point, he’s averaged 135.4.

For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, the scoring ceiling isn’t as high, but it’s just as valuable a trade. Over the past 10 weeks, he’s scored 5 tons, plus two additional scores over 90 and averaged just on the ton.

Taylor Walker

One of the decisions that defined 2021 was for those who traded into Taylor Walker ahead of round 3 commencing. Whether you traded him in from an underperforming premium (like Jordan DeGoey) or an injury forced to move ‘Tex’ was a huge win for owners. The following four weeks, he did his job with scores of 136, 99, 74 & 76 in DreamTeam/AFLFantasy and 130, 106, 85 & 103 in SuperCoach.

Heading into round seven, his price had increased by $320,000 in AFLFantasy, $197,000 in SuperCoach and $245,000 in DreamTeam from his starting price. Not a bad quick money maker and points on-field performance.

Jack Ziebell

Do you remember the pain entering into round two? Patrick Dangerfield had just been handed a three game suspension, and the debate amongst coaches was about whether to hold or trade. Hindsight would say that trading Danger was clearly the right call, especially after suffering an injury on his return game.

Jack was the form forward of the competition over the first three months of the season. In SuperCoach, he averaged 115 up till the bye rounds, just three scores under 100 and only one score to this point under 89. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, over the first 11 games 109, posted some monster scores of 139, 140 & 170 and didn’t drop below a score of 82. So chances are if you started with or traded into Ziebell early, you had strong rankings rise to start the year.

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Jordan De Goey

Trading him out of your team in the front half of the season could’ve been equally as defining as trading him back in. But certainly jumping on after suspension and bye round was a perfect time. By then, he’d already had three solid games against the Crows, Cats and Demons, so it wasn’t a ‘blind jump.’ So even though you could’ve got him at a steal price at the end of round 10, nobody was trading into him then.

Since round 16 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s scored: 124, 117, 120, 93, 125, 94 & 98. While in SuperCoach over this same timeframe he’s gone 114, 124, 114, 80, 138, 85 & 119. In this seven week stretch, he’s been going at an average of 110 across all formats. HUGE!

Brayden Fiorini

If you were a Patreon in 2020, you might recall Kane & I spoke about him in our 50 keeper targets series. In it, we highlight his fantasy potential and that he’s a fringe option at the Suns. However, with injuries to key midfielders like Hugh Greenwood, ‘Fio’ found himself seven weeks ago with a chance to prove himself as someone who belongs at the top level.

And prove himself he has. Over the previous 7 weeks in AFLFantasy, his lowest score is 101. He’s had 4 scores over 110 and is averaging 115. He’s now priced at $803,000. But at round 16, you could’ve picked him up for just $639,000.

The scoring consistency might not have been as high in SuperCoach, but the value has been ever better. At round 16, Brayden was priced at $301,700. Now he’d set you back $523,500. Over the past 7 weeks, he’s scored 5 tons and is averaging 110. If you brought him in as an M8-M9 swingman or a ‘buy low’ and hope option at M7-M8, he’s been an absolute find for you!

Touk Miller

I couldn’t get through this article and not mention him. In reality, getting Touk in anytime this season has been huge. But really, post-bye is his super run. At his bye round, he averaged 117 across the formats, and many would’ve assumed that’s a phenomenal start, but this is as good as he gets.

For his first 10 games of the season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he was averaging 117 and posted 7 tons. In his past 10 games, he’s averaged 125 with just one score under 100.

Over in SuperCoach, his first 10 games of the season, he averaged 117.9 and posted 7 tons. In his past 10 games, he’s averaged ? with hasn’t dropped his scores under 100.

Jy Simpkin

‘After his bye’ is a phrase I’ve already used on multiple players (and still more to come.) But Simpkin is a testament to backing in a player’s scoring history even when he’s given you minimal faith in his delivery in that current season.

Over the first 11 games of this season, Jy has only 4 SuperCoach scores over 90 and only one above 110 and was averaging 89.9. While for AFLFantasy, he’d posted 3 tons and averaging 86.2.

Since the bye, he’s posted 7 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons and had just one score under 90. In this 10 game stretch, he’s currently averaging 105. In SuperCoach, he’s also posted 7 tons, twice scored 99 and is averaging 106 in his past 10. It’s not as big as others on this list, but still a win for owners.

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Christian Petracca

Christian started the year super strong. Over the first 8 weeks, he rarely had a poor game. An average of 111 in AFLFantasy & 103 in SuperCoach over the first 8 weeks is more than handy. As good as it was, the back portion of the season has been even better.

If you traded him in from round 9 onwards, he would have returned 9 SuperCoach tons, 7 of them over 110 and 2 148 or higher. In addition to the ceiling, he’s still yet to go under 90 since round 9. In these past 12 games, he’s averaged 128. Meanwhile, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s scored 9 tons, 8 of them over 110 and 3 over 135. An average of 122. Well done if you picked him up then.

Jack Steele

OK, much like Touk Miller above, this feels like a stretch given how good he’s been across the totality of the season. But in truth, the perfect time to get him (if not for the whole season) was really after the bye. Before it, he still had a sold average of 112 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 118 in SuperCoach.

From round 15 onwards in SuperCoach, he’s hit the ton every week, has had four scores over 145 and has gone under 130 twice. During this 8 game stretch, he’s averaging 137. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s also had 8 consecutive tons, including 5 scores of 138 or above, including a 162. Since this hot stretch started, he’s got an 8 game average of 133.

Matt Kennedy

For years the Carlton footy club has been looking for additional support to Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh. The club thought Zac Williams was the fix, but it had the best option under their nose in Matt Kennedy. As a forward eligible option, Matt’s become one of the ‘hot hand’ forwards since he played as a midfielder. I mean, what a novelty. Playing midfielders as midfielders!

It would’ve taken a pair to get him in at the start of the bye round, given he hadn’t played for months and had an average that even at a rookie price, most coaches would’ve said no to. But he’s been exceptional over the last 9 weeks since getting back into the side and playing midfield.

Four tons, plus an additional three scores between 93-95 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, has seen him average 96. Over in SuperCoach, he’s gone just as strong. 5 tons, four of them 115+ and an average of 94. Yes, he’s had 1 or 2 stinkers in this stretch, but given the price point, trading into him at any time through this run has been a raging success!

Ultimate Footy | Draft Day Wins

You rarely will ‘win the draft’ in the opening handful of rounds. Rather, it’s the mid to late draft day selections that can really take your team from good to great. So here’s a look at some of the late draft day selections that have been winning selections for their owners.

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Ben Keays | AVG: 108.9 | ADP: 206

18 months ago, Ben Keays wasn’t even on an AFL list, let alone a genuine top tier performing fantasy midfielder. With the loss of Matt Crouch through injury and his brother Brad Crouch at the trade table, the Crows needed someone to stand up and support ‘the Rory’s.’

Keays has been a picture of consistency this year. With his scoring ranging between 91-156 across this season, he dropped beneath 100 in only six of his fifteen matches and nothing under 90. To put his season into contrast, he’s currently scored the same amount of points as Christian Petracca. CP5 had an ADP of 27; that’s almost 180 spots on draft day, the difference between the two.

Jack Ziebell | AVG: 106.6 | ADP: 121

Jack Ziebell is not in the unfamiliar territory of delivering premium scores for us. For a better part of a decade, he was a bankable 90’s centre and even had a season where he was a top tier forward. This year his move into the backline has seen him pop to become one of the best backs or forwards (his DPP allows both) of the season.

Across the season, he’s only dipped his scoring under 82 once, had four scores between 90-99 plus seven scores over 100, including a 139, 140 & 170. The question over Jack was never scoring potential (OK, nobody thought this big) but rather over durability. He’s seemingly put that doubt now to bed too.

We did write about Ziebell in our preseason 50 most relevant series here.

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Karl Amon | AVG: 94.7 | ADP: 199

When Port Adelaide get on top of their opponent, more often than not, Karl Amon is enjoying plenty of freedom and space outside the contest. As a result, the Power wingman has delivered a ton in nearly 50% of the games played this season. That might not sound like much, but to get a 90+ centre that’s capable of delivering multiple tons is huge at any point of the draft. Let alone at an ADP where you’re picking a bloke as a bench option at best.

Touk Miller | AVG: 120.2 | ADP: 81

It’s earlier than everyone else on the list. In fact, he’s the only player drafted inside the top 100 that finds a home. But Touk Miller deserves his spot on. While this is a draft selection on average in the 8th-9th round, he’s delivering at an M1 level, not the likely M3 or M4 that he was selected.

Miller is currently the highest ranked player in the game by averages and ranked 8th by total points. He’s scored 11 tons from his 14 games and has only one score under 88 for the season. Well done if you drafted Touk in 2021.

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Aaron Hall | AVG: 103.5 | ADP: 167

Much like his teammate above, Aaron Hall is no stranger to delivering top tier seasons. In 2016 & 2017, at his former club Gold Coast, he delivered seasonal averages of 105 & 98. But it’s been a long time since he’d scored like that. The 89% of coaches that drafted him were all hopeful of a scoring boost, but with him missing round one and a subbed in a score of 11 in round 1, things didn’t look good.

Since that point, Aaron has been superb, scoring eight tons, with all except one being over 120. Bravo if you drafted him, even better if you snagged him from the player pool. Pickups like that make your UltimateFooty season.

Paul Seedsman | AVG: 94.6 | ADP: 262

The last time Paul Seedsman was draft relevant was several seasons ago when he was eligible as a back. There he delivered his regular mid to high 70’s season. Before 2021, ‘The Seed’ had never averaged over 80. Enter this season; he’s become an unstoppable running force for the Crows. He’s ranked 5th in the AFL for inside ’50s ahead of big name players like Dayne Zorko, Clayton Oliver, Jackson Macrae and Dustin Martin.

With his 70 tons for the season and 5 additional 80+ scores, he’s been a huge win for the 52% of coaches who drafted him. He’s gone from being a bench option to a genuine M5, if not higher.

David Mundy | AVG: 94.3 | ADP: 222

David Mundy isn’t the only player on this list to use the keys to the time machine. You’ve got to go back to 2015 for the last time, averaged over 90. His five tons have certainly elevated his average to respectable levels, but given that he was potentially someones last pick on draft day, it’s a huge bonus!

Mundy is yet to hit his early season scoring form, but given the fact he hasn’t dipped below 72 all season, he’s certainly overachieved for the 73% of coaches who drafted him.

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Sean Darcy | AVG: 94.7 | ADP: 223

If you play in a keeper league, then you’ll be familiar with Sean Darcy. He’s long showed promise of his scoring. However, before this season, he couldn’t seemingly sting more than a handful of games together. Thankfully for 63% of coaches that drafted him, he’s been exceptional this season.

He’s scored six tons plus an additional five scores between 80-99. He’s ranked third amongst the rucks but points and averages. Not a bad return for his owners that likely selected him with either the final on field spot or as a bench option for someone they picked earlier.

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Isaac Cumming | AVG: 87.4 | ADP: 241

Have you ever jumped on a player 12 months too early? I know I have and did with Isaac Cumming. He’s taken the opportunity to cement himself inside the Giants with the departure of Zac Williams. Just a mere 42% of coaches picked him on draft day, but he’s delivered massive dividends to owners.

Of his 15 games, he’s only dipped his scoring beneath 70 in just three matches, had six scores between 80-99 and pumped out four tons. Bravo if you picked up Isaac this year either in the draft or off the player pool. He’s been immense this season.

Bailey Dale | AVG: 82.9 | ADP: 249

Where the heck did this come from? Yet again, ‘Bevo’ strikes again with redeploying the bits and pieces forward into a prime ball move across halfback. Bailey Dale is currently ranked 16th for total points among all backs. While he hasn’t had the frequency of big tons as others on this list, he’s become a perfect reliable option for his owners. From his 15 games, he’s had just 3 scores under 77. Not bad for a bloke drafted in only 8% of leagues.

Nick Hind | AVG: 85.1 | ADP: 209

Following on the ‘where the heck’ is Essendon recruit Nick Hind. His addition to the side has made everyone forget that Adam Saad was among the top 3 best players (according to their B&F) last season. Hind has been electric this year also for coaches who drafted him. Over the opening 10 rounds of the season, he scored three tons, three additional scores over 90 and didn’t drop his scoring below 70. In fact, he’s dipped below that marker just once across the entire season.

While his scoring may have slowed over the last five weeks with zero scores over 80, the benefits have far outway and decline in recent scoring. Well played to the 51% of coaches who drafted him.

Taylor Walker | AVG: 79.9 | ADP: 210

We’ve had some surprises on this list so far, but I don’t think anyone believed Taylor Walker could wind back the clock and deliver his strong 2021 season. Instead, his season opened up with 105, 120, 136 & 99 leaving him as the #2 forward behind Josh Dunkley at the time. Not a bad return for the 5% of coaches that picked him on draft day.

Over the previous 3 months, we’ve had some patchy low scores, a bunch of ’80s and ’90s, plus last weeks game where he was subbed out of the game. Regardless, it’s been a massive success for his owners if you look at his season as a totality.

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Tom McDonald | AVG: 77.9 | ADP: 273

The latest pick of all players picked on my list with an average draft selection of 273. In fact, on the draft day, only 43% of leagues drafted him. Yet now, by averages, he’s ranked 25th for the season. Of course, like all key forwards, his scoring fluctuates, but with 9 scores over 80, he’s been a more than help addition for his coaches.

Jarman Impey | AVG: 85.7| ADP: 240

A season ending injury a few weeks back has certainly soured the celebrations. But those who picked up Jarman Impey were given a flying start to the 2021 season. As a reference point, before this year, he’d never averaged over 72.

However, from his 13 matches, he delivered four tons, three more scores between 94-98, plus an additional three scores of 74+. Throw in the fact he’s been forward eligible, and just 35% of coaches drafted him. It’s a steal in a line that’s lacked genuine, reliable performances.

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Darcy Parish | AVG: 113 | ADP: 145

Four scores over 80, including a 117, is hardly a poor start to the season for someone you likely drafted in the vicinity of round 14. However, injuries create opportunities, and when Dylan Shiel went down, the Bombers were forced to permanently release Darcy Parish into the midfield. Since round six, he’s scored 9 tons from 10 games, including four over 140.

This sort of performance is the kind you dream about getting from a mid-range draft pick. For those lucky coaches who struck across this scoring goldmine, they’re laughing to the bank with his performances every single week.

Chris Mayne | AVG: 94.1 | ADP: 210

This is clearly Chris Mayne’s best season in UltimateFooty. Before this season, his best year was back in 2013, where at Fremantle, he averaged 86. Unfortunately, not many have improved their scoring at Collingwood this season, with Steele Sidebottom, Jordan DeGoey, Scott Pendlebury and Braydan Maynard all regressing. But, promisingly for his owners, Mayne has! Since round 8, Chris has scored five tons and has the lowest score of 97.

Ranked 13th for average amongst all backs, those held onto him after an indifferent start has reaped massive rewards over the last few months.

7 Things No Fantasy Footy Coach Could Predict in 2021

As fantasy footy coaches, we all make big pre-season predictions, and one of the most satisfying things is nailing a big call. Now that we are 11 weeks into the season, I thought we should look back and discuss 7 things that no Fantasy Footy coach could predict would happen in 2021

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1) The depleted forward line

When Patrick Dangerfield, Dayne Zorko Steele Sidebottom, Rowan Marshall and Josh Dunkley were all added to the forwards. It appeared as though it’d be one of the least complicated lines to make premium picks. Sadly, nothing could be further from the truth.

Of the above ‘big 6 additions, ’ only Zorko has played every available game. A quick look at the injuries to forward eligible players reveals just how much carnage coaches have had to endure.

In the ‘premium’ category across the formats, we’ve lost the following names to a minimum of 2 games.  Patrick Dangerfield, Rowan Marshall, Josh Dunkley, Isaac Heeney, Chad Wingard, Shai Bolton, and Toby Greene.

It gets worse; in the stepping stone or breakout options, we’ve lost Jeremy Cameron, Zak Butters, Jye Caldwell, Connor Rozee and Jaidyn Stephenson, to name the popular options.

Our forward line has gone from the safest top tier of scoring candidates to an absolute fruit salad. Who will be the top 6 forwards from now until the end of the year? Honestly, it could be anyone the way 2021 has gone so far.

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2) 3 Swans in the top 10 Defenders for SuperCoach

One swan in the top bunch of defenders? Zero surprises. Jake Lloyd has been the best options in this line for multiple seasons. Two backs in the top 10? Sure, I could see that. Callum Mills mooted preseason move to the midfield resulted in him being a dominant force and arguably the most unheralded defensive line move of the season.

But three? Seriously! Well, it’s happening. Jordan Dawson is currently ranked 10th for total points among all defenders in SuperCoach. It’s not by much with 8 players within 50 points, but it’s legit. Arguably even more surprising is seeing Blake Hardwick ranked two spots higher.

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3) Jack Ziebell the top forward

It doesn’t surprise me to see Jack Ziebell being a year long premium option. At the start of the season, it was certainly in the realms of possibility given his scoring history. However, I’m certain nobody saw that he’d be the clear #1 forward at this point of the season.

In AFLFantasty/DreamTeam, he’s over 70 points clear of Zorko. Additionally, he’s posted 3 scores over 130, including a 170, and his scores haven’t dipped below 82.  

While in SuperCoach, he’s 83 points clear of the second placed Zorko. Across the season, his scoring has dropped under 89 just once. But it’s the frequency and sizes of tons that’s excited owners. He’s scored 7 tons from his 11 games, including 3 over 145.

Did I think he’d be a good option in 2021? Yep! This good? No way! Does he stay there by years end? Who knows.

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4) Nick Hind becomes a premium

It’s a dream of fantasy coaches every season. That being that our stepping stone or midprice options turn into season long keepers. In 2020 Jordan Ridley delivered it, and in 2021 it appears Nick Hind will follow suit. The former Saint, despite being forward eligible, has flourished in the rebounding defensive role at Essendon.

The perfect plan was always for coaches that did start him, that he could be moved on at his round 13 bye round to a forward coming off the bye. Hopefully, small upgrade investment coaches could turn him into Patrick Dangerfield, Toby Greene or even Aaron Hall. Now he’s not just scoring like a premium; he’s a genuine upgrade target.

After 11 rounds, he’s currently safely inside the top 10 scoring forwards in all formats and shows signs of scoring improvement over the last month. As discussed earlier in this article, getting forwards who can score 85+ safely most weeks is challenging. But not for Hind. Well done if you picked him at the start of the year, he is someone you can safely even look to as an upgrade now.

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5) The Renaissance of Tex Walker

It wasn’t just Kane Cornes that said Tex was done. Most of the footballing media was suggesting the former Crow captain was washed up. Even the most biased Adelaide supporters were starting to get a little nervous that it might be time for Tex Walker to finish up.

In round one, a score of 105 in AFLFantasty/DreamTeam and 146 in SuperCoach had people calling it a ‘one off.’ But the following weeks shut that down quickly. By round 6, he was averaging 118 in SuperCoach and 101 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. Brave coaches that jumped on him during this stretch enjoyed both a strong scoreboard return and a massive increase in his value.

Since then, he’s had some up and down game, which is expected for any key position forward. Regardless, to have played 10 games and only dipped his scoring beneath 74 across all formats twice and to deliver multiple big 100’s is exceptional for the apparent ‘wash up.’

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6) Bailey Dale becomes draft relevant

“You mean Bailey Smith, right?” That’s what most of us would’ve said if I said ‘Bailey Dale is relevant’ in 2021.  The previously fringe forward has found himself a new home in the backline. Like Caleb Daniel of previous seasons, the Doggies have loved his skill and dare, and he is now a permanent fixture. In UltimateFooty, his average of 87 doesn’t quite put him in the top tier of scoring just yet, but he’s not far off it. Coming off back-to-back tons and with the lowest score of 77 since round 3, he’s becoming quite the reliable option.

He’s been one of the bargains of the year. On draft day, he was picked up in only 8% of teams with an average draft position of 256. Additionally, his newly found BACK/FWD status has been a lifesaver for his owners at various points of the year too.

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7) James Jordon would be the rookie of the year.

When James Jordan was named in round one, plenty of coaches celebrated. After having a promising AAMI Community series and preseason form, we finally got another basement price midfield cow.

However, if we are honest, many believed that his job security, let alone scoring potential, might be fragile. Especially when Angus Brayshaw, a proven fantasy performer, couldn’t get a relevant role in that midfield unit. Yet, despite this, he’s been one of the brightest lights for fantasy coaches regarding his consistency of scoring.

11 games into the year and with multiple 90+ scores across all the formats, he’s proven to be one of the best moneymakers of the season. Even now, he’s scoring within 15-25 points of our premiums, a feat he’s done most weeks. He’s hit his peak value now, but ‘JJ’ has far exceeded anyone’s plans at the start of the year. Thank you James!

Breakevens | Round Three

Buy low, sell high! It’s the age-old motto to succeed in Fantasy football of all formats. Every week we share with you the players with the lowest breakevens across AFLFantasy, SuperCoach & DreamTeam. Here are the players that offer the best breakevens heading into a new round.

PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
 C. WarnerFWD$228,70092-72
 E. GuldenMID$241,100116.3-69
 T. Highmore DEF$117,30068.5-68
 J. Impey FWD$288,00098.3-62
 S. Giro MID$170,00059-50
 L. Meek RUC$177,50064.7-47
 J. Bruce FWD$342,500104.7-43
 C. Jiath DEF$332,700102-42
 H. ChapmanDEF$148,80064-41
 A. Waterman FWD$102,40081-40
 T. WalkerFWD$406,100139.7-35
 M. Flynn RUC$227,500102.3-34
 L. McNeil MID$135,50045-30
 L. Fogarty FWD$382,600110.3-29
 S. Berry MID$169,20062-28
 J. ZiebellFWD$341,400113.3-27
 K. Pickett FWD$310,60091-24
 J. JordanMID$184,20069.7-23
 H. McKay FWD$374,800104-23
 T. BrockmanMID/FWD$143,50042.7-22
 M. FrederickFWD$175,70062-21
 P. HunterRUC$102,40039.5-19
 M. Bergman FWD$123,90044.5-16
 N. CoxDEF/FWD$204,50056-15
 C. Lazzaro MID$126,20029.7-12
 B. CampbellMID/FWD$230,00067.7-12
 T. Powell MID$191,80059-11
 J. Butts DEF$214,10062.7-6
 A. Scott MID/FWD$139,50048-6
 C. Idun DEF$214,90064.5-3
 H. SharpMID/DEF$117,30035.5-2
 J. Daniher FWD$266,00070.3-1
 I. Cumming DEF$337,10093.3-1
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PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
 C. WarnerFWD$334,00079.3-23
 J. Jordan MID$355,00087-19
 E. Gulden MID$414,00099.7-18
 D. RobertsonMID/FWD$228,00093-17
 M. Flynn RUC$346,00083-12
 T. Walker FWD$558,000120.3-9
 C. Burgess DEF$221,00077-7
 M. Bergman FWD$227,00057.5-6
 J. Bruce FWD$485,00098.3-4
 A. Waterman FWD$198,00068-4
 L. Meek RUC$227,00046-2
 T. Highmore DEF$240,00057.50
 L. Parks DEF$191,000581
 P. Hunter RUC$212,000491
 A. ScottMID/FWD$238,000491
 C. Idun DEF$257,000563
 T. FullartonRUC/FWD$197,00035.75
 N. Shipley MID$187,000516
 N. Cox DEF/FWD$299,00054.38
 S. Giro MID$322,00057.78
 M. FrederickFWD$352,00076.59
 H. JonesFWD$229,00044.39
 H. Chapman DEF$279,000589
 L. McNeilMID$203,0003610
 S. WicksFWD$487,00091.311
 T. Brockman MID/FWD$260,00050.711
 L. YoungDEF/MID$346,00064.312
 C. Lazzaro MID$231,00039.712
 C. Jiath DEF$444,00084.312
 S. Berry MID$290,00054.713
 J. Koschitzke DEF$231,0004314
 J. Prior DEF$181,0004014
 N. Murray DEF$179,0003814
 T. Powell MID$330,00062.715
 J. Rowe FWD$291,00057.315
 B. Campbell MID/FWD$344,00063.716
 T. Berry FWD$268,0005216
 C. Menadue DEF$261,0006117
 S. Taylor DEF$293,0004818
 Z. Sproule FWD$176,0003318
 M. Holmes MID/FWD$247,0005618
 S. SwitkowskiFWD$410,00077.719
 J. Butts DEF$226,00036.319
 I. Cumming DEF$462,00086.719
FWD$518,0009120
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PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
E. GuldenMID$294,300100-65
J. JordanMID$277,70087-62
C. WarnerFWD$292,30079-56
T. WalkerFWD$482,200120-50
T. HighmoreDEF$152,20058-50
S. GiroMID$224,30058-46
M. BergmanFWD$160,90058-46
P. HunterRUC$132,80049-41
H. ChapmanDEF$187,20058-36
M. FlynnRUC$270,40083-34
M. FredrickFWD$282,50077-32
C. LazzaroMID$185,00040-30
J. ZiebellFWD$449,200105-29
C. IdunDEF$197,10056-28
C. JiathDEF$375,20084-26
N. CoxDEF/FWD$259,80054-25
L. Meek RUC$202,90046-25
S. BerryMID$212,30055-23
B. CampbellMID/FWD$287,90064-22
J. BruceFWD$445,40098-20
T. BrockmanMID/FWD$205,00051-19
J. ImpeyFWD$390,60086-17
A. ScottMID/FWD$187,60049-15
J. HuntFWD$373,20070-13
T. PowellMID$256,50063-10
T. FullartonRUC/FWD$184,10036-7
I. CummingDEF$415,10087-5
H. McKayFWD$494,50091-2
J. KoschizkeFWD$197,50043-1
Supercoach Weekend Wrap | Round 3

Easter weekend. 

It’s all about death and resurrection. 

And this weekend we’ve seen both.

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Round Three

We saw the resurrection of Brisbane on Thursday night as they managed to grab the win after the final siren. Considering they’d only led 3 and a half minutes of the game it was a nail in the heart to every Collingwood player and supporter. Lachie Neale had a great first half, one that reminded us all of how rapid his point scoring can be even if he was nullified to an 83 in the end. It might be a smart idea to think about picking him up in a few rounds when his price bottoms out. It’ll be a temptation at least. 

From a Pies point of view, Brodie Grundy is most definitely back and everyone who had the VC on him was happy. Except for one of my mates who managed to miss the lockout and was stuck with Macrae as captain. Offt, that’s one way to ruin a long weekend. 

Speaking of ruining a weekend, I’m reluctant to mention my team North Melbourne. It was like watching the death of a footy club in two hours. They were well and truly dead and buried by the end of it. It’ll be years before any sort of resurrection occurs there. On a positive note, Jack Ziebell will be hard to trade if his numbers continue the way they are. He’s putting up keeper premium scores and is the only one worth considering on the list. 

Having had their greatest margin of victory ever the Bulldogs continue to show they’re a solid list of scorers. Even though they share the points around each week having a couple of them in our side will pay-off longer-term. For those 1400 owners who had Josh Bruce this week I salute you. You’re either playing a very smart game or you’ve never played this before. Either way, it paid off. 

I didn’t talk about Tex Walker last week because I had in mind jumping on some cheaper rookies with a greater chance of cash generation. It’s too late to grab him now, but he may have to be considered a top forward option if he keeps scoring at this phenomenal level. The game is doing wonders for him, a certain resurrection from his 2020 form. 

One player I have added to my watchlist after seeing some of his game is Hugh Greenwood. He may well have a 0.5% ownership for a reason, but with not many GCS midfield options he could be a great little POD once his price drops another 100-150k. 

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The Swans win over the Tigers was impressive, and they had more players grab a ton than I had on my long weekend jobs list. For those of us who have loaded up with as many Swans rookies as possible we’re about to find our teams worth a lot more. Errol Gulden is now the rookie with the greatest price rise ever and will keep rising for some weeks yet. Others like Chad Warner continue to score at levels unnecessary to trade. But it seems that Braeden Campbell will be the first to leave our sides after blowing out a 29 this weekend. 

Jordan Ridley is in serious consideration for our defensive line, if he wasn’t already. A score of 147 helps him hold the number one defender title. Jack Steele continues his good form with 132, the only thing consistent in the Saints team this season. Andrew Gaff rewarded those teams who stuck with him, even if he will come crashing down in price in coming weeks. And Luke Shuey returned with an impressive 122. 

For those Blues supporters out there, well done on keeping the Dockers quiet by not allowing any of their team to ton up. Oh, and well done on the win too. The eight 100s, including Cripps, certainly showed you guys kept your end up this week. 

In the final match of the round Cam Guthrie shows he may be a viable option going forward. And those who jumped on Jaith or Impey have enjoyed their offerings. 

The whole ruck debate from two weeks ago is now well and truly dead. There was nothing to worry two weeks ago, and this weekend showed just how dominant Grundy and Gawn are in those positions. Flynn will continue to make some good money for us, but surely is a stepping stone to one of those two. All I can say is, “O Captain! My Captain!”. 

I’m promising myself a no trade week this week. There are injuries to consider but for those who have got through relatively unscathed then we’ll be hoping for some good price rises and stability.

Trading Priorities | Round Two

This is one of the most pivotal weeks of the year for fantasy football coaches. Especially in DreamTeam & SuperCoach, given after this round, the prices of players begin to change. So before round three gets underway, MJ looks at a number of trading priorities coaches need to consider.

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Lachie Neale

Depending on the format/s you play and why you play are the greatest two underlying motivations that will drive your decision to either hold or trade Lachie Neale this week. So let’s look at both sides of the coin, the decision to hold and trade. Ultimately, whatever you do you need to be able to make reasoned and logic-driven decisions.

So why would you trade Neale? Simple! First of all, it could be purely based on the enjoyment of the game. That having him on your fantasy footy side is killing your enjoyment of the game. If that is a driving decision maker for you, it’s fairly easy for you to trade him out.

Another motivation could be the way you split up your salary cap more evenly. Perhaps you’ve got an injury forced a trade to make, like Jye Caldwell. Perhaps the dollar combination could be better spent on moving him to a combination of Andrew Brayshaw and Dustin Martin. While it does cost you two trades, it might make your side better in the long run.

The risk is that Neale pulls his finger out and averages 130 over the next three weeks. Yes, his current form is off, but Lachie has a history now over many years to show his capability. Yes, you could still ‘trade him back in cheaper’ you’ve compounded the problem by missing those possible scores. Ultimately, if you trade him, you need to back in that this (like any trade, I suppose) has the potential to blow up in your face horrifically. If you can deal with that potential backlash, then be my guest.

An important feature to take into the discussion is the bye round. If people do trade Neale and intend to bring him back it will ideally need to be for a rd 14 option so there is an easy switch back to Neale afte the bye. By targetting a round 14 bye player, Coaches will also get an additional score from the r14 guy in this scenario.

Between now and the Lions bye round, Neale has 10 games. If he averages 120 (for example) for those 10 games then that equates to 1200 pts. The guy brought in eg. Clayton Oliver or Jack Steele will have 11 games then on top of that will be the extra cash from the trade.

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So why hold? What has changed from 2 weeks ago with Lachie Neale? OK, in reality, a few underwhelming scores and reports out that he’s playing sore. But in the big picture, nothing. But isn’t he going to drop in value? Of course, but remember, a players dollar value only matters if you have to trade them. Outside of that, it’s just an arbitrary number that, as an owner, means nothing. His price tag only matters if you trade him, not if you hold him.

Seven days ago, people were questioning whether premium players like Brodie Grundy or Max Gawn were worth the big dollars after a poor opening round score. Both of these guys delivered tons across the formats the following week. At the same time, Neale has ‘failed’ at delivering a ton in both games, not just one the principal of backing in your premiums after a few poor scores are important to remind ourselves of.

What do you think Neale will average for the season by the end of the year? Is it 120? If it’s that, then he’ll need to average closer to 125+ over the remaining games. I think in AFLFantasy / DreamTeam, he’s not going to be a top 8 midfielder, and I believed that at the beginning of the season. But for SuperCoach, he absolutely still could be. It’s why for me, in that format, more than any other, a ‘hold’ needs to be a serious consideration even with a ‘sore back.’

Continuing to use SuperCoach as the illustration, in three weeks, he’s forecast to be priced around $600k. By this time, many non-owners will be using a trade to bring him in. Why? Because since joining the Lions, he’s proven to be an elite performer. So the real question actually comes down to this. What’s the value of trades worth? Because I can guarantee you, nobody wants to be off the Lachie Neale train by the time it gets going.

Are the trades you take to move him on and then ultimately strive to bring him back in, will your team be better positioned? Not just in points, but have you got closer to a completed team of premiums? As an aside, how many more trades do you have available to help facilitate that finished team? On average, it takes about 2.5 trades per upgrade.

Don’t just be ‘reactionary’ with your moves. That’s how you burn through trades and find yourself at seasons end, settling for stepping stone players and rookies to fill out spots on the field. That’s a position you don’t want to be in. Rather consider all the options, consider what’s best for your team’s current and long-term needs. And based on that, make your decisions.

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Patrick Cripps

In a similar vein to the Lachie Neale discussion, ‘Crippa’ owners are seriously considering moving him on. Like everything, factor in the motivators behind the desired move and reflect on what your expectations for him are at the start of the season.

What I mean by this is what’s motivating the desire to trade? Is it his reported soreness? Is it because you believe the style of AFL gameplay is limiting his involvement and impact? Whatever it is, can you articulate what’s driving the desire to want to move him on? Once you have, now you can clarify whether that motivation is emotionally charged, tactically driven or something more. The answer to the ‘why do you want to trade’ should ultimately form the basis of whether or not your logic is sound or flawed.

If you believe starting with him was a mistake, then as I said, map out your logic and reasoning and if that’s the summation of your findings, then back in that for the trade. If you believe he’s still likely to average 100+ in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam or 110+ in SuperCoach for the end of the year, then back him in and hold him.

In the collection of the Coaches Panel, we have multiple winners of formats in Rids and Fish. Plus, numerous top 100 finishes across all formats for all of us. What’s the one common feedback we all endorse? Success in the ‘classic’ formats of the game is won or lost at the trade table. You won’t ‘fail’ because of a few weeks of underperforming premiums in your starting squad. Your success is based on how well you trade.

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Taylor Walker

Who would have ever thought that after round two, Taylor Walker would be ranked first for total points in SuperCoach?! Yet here he is. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s ranked 8th overall. The reason he should be on coaches trading radars this week isn’t that he’s the ‘Jy Simpkin‘ of 2020. Rather it’s about the cash he could generate for prospective owners in the next few weeks.

By trading into Walker, the mindset shouldn’t be around viewing him as an underpriced premium. That might happen, but you cannot bank on that. Rather, the trade is the focus of cash generation while also netting a few handy points on the field.

‘Tex’ currently is priced under $300k in SuperCoach and has a breakeven of -114. In three weeks time, he could’ve made $150,000. In AFLFantasy, he’s already gone up to $104K, but at $470,000 with a breakeven -4, he’s still got another $70-$100k to make in the next fortnight scoring dependant. While DreamTeam, he’s priced just over $354k while his breakeven of -75 means he could jump in value to $500,000 by the end of round 5.

These scoring increases aren’t based on him going for big tons, rather they are on him averaging around 75-85. Should he deliver 1-2 more big scores then his cash generation will only further rise.

Over the coming three matches Adelaide play Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Fremantle. Not only are they three winnable games, but they also matchups that are favourable for Tex.

Perhaps you’ve got an injury forced to trade in Jye Caldwell. Or an underperforming stepping stone, then Walker could well be the perfect 2 week strategy for your team.

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Jordan De Goey

Coming off the back of a ’90’s’ score across all formats seeing Jordan De Goey’s name might surprise. But the reason for it is predominantly about one big issue. Collingwood’s forward structure. They look more likely to win games of AFL when he is a target inside 50. Not many sides have the defensive cattle to stop him when he gets going. While I know the Pies want him through the middle, the facts are evident. Collingwood is a more dangerous side when he is playing forward.

What further compounds this problem is Jamie Elliot is set for an ‘extended period’ out injured. He’s the only other consistently dangerous Magpie forward. With him out, the pressure falls back to the forward structure to deliver, and JDG could well be the internal solution to the problem.

This means that Jordy’s scoring variables and ceiling could be more dramatic as he’ll need to kick goals to score higher. A factor that can change from week to week. Is moving him on this week a must? Certainly not! But the more time he spends inside 50, the less he’s likely to challenge the top 6-8 forwards across fantasy football formats. Right now, he’s a watch and see unless you have zero other trading needs and are lacking in the premium forwards that are delivering, e.g. Dusty and Dunkley.

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Paddy Dow

The hype player of a preseason, Paddy Dow, has been a huge disappointment for the owners who spent up picking him. The equation is simple. When you have cash cows scoring at a comparable or better rate that is cheaper, then it’s an easy decision. Trade! Whether it be Tyler Brockman, James Jordan, Sam Berry, Chad Warner or any other cow you’ve currently missed on. If you don’t have them, see Dow as an easy trade move. Don’t see it as a ‘wasted’ trade; rather, it’s a correctional trade.

It’s OK, picking him has been a mistake up until this point. Take this chance to correct that and learn from it.

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Cash Cows

This week’s greatest priority for every fantasy football coach is about making sure we have the cash cows nailed. If you’re missing Errol Gulden, Matt Flynn, James Rowe, Braeden Campbell, James Jordan, Sam Berry or Thomas Highmore, these are the players that need to be your greatest trade priority! Why? These players with high negative breakevens and low starting cash investment are the ones that will have the most rapid financial growth.

Getting these moneymakers into your side is critical to the success of your side. Remember, the aim of the game is about completing your team with premiums as quickly as possible. These cash cows can increase your ability to generate income and get to a completed side more efficiently.

What’s the greater trade priority, fixing up failed premiums or getting the correct cows? Simple! It’s nailing the cash cows.

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Jye Caldwell

He’s injured. A trade is a necessity as simple as that. What might not be as simple as the player you trade him to? Do you go up, across or down in the forward line? The only premium forwards I like right now are Dustin Martin, Dayne Zorko and Josh Dunkley. Midprice moves can be risky. Just ask those that brought in Jaidyn Stephenson last week.

I think if you’re making a sideways move in the forward line, it should be to play the breakeven game and chase the money quickly. Going down to a cash cow is fine, on the premise you’re making a secondary trade to use it on another move. Don’t let your salary cap sit dormant on the sidelines. Make it work for you either in cash generation or in securing premiums for points on the field.

The last thing, don’t just limit yourself to a like for like line replacement. Through the wonders of DPP, you might find a better solution for your unique side.