50 Most Relevant

#50 Most Relevant | Aaron Hall
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Read Time:8 Minute, 35 Second

Every preseason the fantasy football community jumps on & off players. Just 12 months ago, Aaron Hall was one of the hottest commodities. His scoring pedigree made him one of the best prospects in the game. Now, nobody is discussing or considering him. It’s why he’s the perfect player to kick off the annual 50 most relevant. 

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Aaron Hall
Age: 32
Club: North Melbourne
Position: Defender

2022 Highest Score: 
125 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy)
153 Vs Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
156 Vs Geelong | AFLFantasy (2017)
153 Vs Adelaide | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average: 
90 (AFLFantasy)
97.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $538,600
AFLFantasy Price: $797,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $817,000

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Aaron Hall and his fantasy football pedigree are well-known if you’ve been playing any fantasy football format over the past few seasons. Since being deployed as a rebounding half-back, Hall has reinvented himself and become a genuine top-end premium option.

In 2022 he may have played only eleven games, but in those, it was evident that he was crucial to the North Melbourne game plan. He averaged first in the AFL for metres gained (599.6), sixth for rebound fifties and tenth for kicks per game.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he posted 125, 124, 122 & 113 as his four tons for the season. He also had three additional scores between 90-99. His average of 90 ranked him as the 18th-best defender. As solid as a 90 average is, it’s not the full picture.

In two of those eleven games, he was subbed out of the game with an injury. They were a first-quarter 12 against the Cats and a second-quarter 50 against the Bulldogs. Of the games Hall played the entire match, he averaged 103.

In SuperCoach, he scored five tons, including 153, 129, 123, 119 & 105. Additionally, he had three scores between 94-97. His average of 98.8 still placed him inside the top 15 averages for all defenders, and that’s with two first-half red-vested games.

Just like in AFLFantasy, his average for SuperCoach takes a significant spike when you look at games that Aaron played out the match. In those nine games, he averaged 109.6. As a reference point, only Jordan Dawson, James Sicily and Jack Sinclair have a high seasonal average.

His non-injury-affected averages from 2022 are a true reflection of his scoring power and his 2021 season. That year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he delivered a stunning season scoring 14 tons, with 12 of them (85%) going at 120 or higher. To go with his ceiling is his scoring basement, with three games under 90 every year.

Of those three matches, one was subbed out with a concussion, and the other was subbed into the game. So, when playing full games, it’s just one game beneath 90. Hall’s ranked as the top defender with the highest average and is ranked second in total points by just 60 to Jack Crisp. Not bad for a guy who missed a few games and had two limited times on ground games.

The scoring was just as impressive in SuperCoach during 2021. He posted 16 tons, 7 of them were over 120, and he had just four scores under 100 all year. Remember two of these; he was involved as a sub. He ended the year where he’s now ranked as the 8th best defender for total points and fifth for averages.

When Aaron Hall gets on the park, he’s spent the past two seasons as one of the top-scoring defenders in all fantasy football formats. So, of course, his selection comes with risks; nobody should question that. But the fact that nobody this pre-season is discussing, let alone considering him, is disrespectful to his fantasy pedigree.

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MY TAKE

When the positions were released in early December, one comment was universally made across the fantasy football community. It was the lack of genuine top-end defensive premiums. Players like Jack Crisp, Jayden Short & Lachie Whitfield had been popular and high-scoring options for years. However, to start the 2023 season, all three will be midfielders. It’s one of the reasons that coaches shouldn’t sleep on Aaron Hall. In a line that’s skinny on the upper echelon of defenders, Hall is capable of being the top option in the line.

The major objective for people considering Aaron is his growing and frequent injuries, not his scoring pedigree. In February of 2022 alone, he injured his hamstring in an intraclub match. Then, he did another string in April. While lastly, in July, he injured his quad. And by the time he came back to play, it was only initially a late inclusion in round 19 against the Hawks.

A player’s injury history must always be factored in, but it should never be the sole reason you choose not to select a player. If anything, a player’s injury history is a reason to consider him in your starting squad and not as an upgrade target.

The reason being is that if you start with them, you can bank all the scores they deliver. And with every passing game, the likelihood of injury will only increase. However, suppose you trade into an injury ‘risk’. In that case, you run the gauntlet of not just missing his good scores that attracted you to make them an upgrade, but rather your likelihood of trading into that injury is higher with every game past.

Starting these ‘injury-prone’ players is the best way to offset the risk. If an injury does occur, you have banked every good score available but also spent just one trade, not multiple, on removing him from your side.

The question marks over Hall aren’t just limited to his injury history. What role under the new coaching regime does he hold? How will Clarko use Hall? Does he deploy him in the rebounding half-back role that’s made him relevant? Does he get reused back as a half-forward in a similar role to what he had at the Gold Coast Suns? Or the worst-case scenario is relegated to being squad depth and playing out the season in the VFL. Thankfully, this information will become clearer as the pre-season goes on.

If he’s not in the first-choice 22 and not playing as the rebounder, you can jump off him before the first lockout of the season. So it’s no harm and no foul at this point. However, if he does retain it under Clarko, he needs to be considered at the very least.

Twelve months ago, Hall was considered a genuine candidate within the fantasy community to be the top-scoring option in the backline. But entering the 2023 pre-season, I’ve not seen anyone spotlight him as an option. The injury flag is no greater this year than last. His injuries validated the concern, but the risk hasn’t increased. He’s cheaper than last year, and he’s more unique. So if he was a consideration for you twelve months ago, he should be again.

Beyond the change in the coaching at North Melbourne, the only other significant change is that the fantasy community is off him, but the risk is the same as 12 months ago & he’s cheaper.

So many coaches are concerned about burning a trade in the season’s first four weeks. But the reality is the first 3-5 trades you make in any season are normally correctional, whether on getting the cash cow you missed or jumping off a failed mid-price selection. We have an abundance of trades, so trading out an ‘injured’ Hall should it eventuate early is hardly a ‘burn.’

With a defensive line that lacks a scoring ceiling, Hall is an option. With a defensive line that lacks the depth of top-line premiums, Hall is an option.

And he doesn’t even have to be an option for the year. The strategy could be that he’s a six-week play in that you grab some cash and bank the scores. Based on history, he could be averaging 115+ safely. He could then become a sideways trade to a potentially topped-out defender like Sam Docherty. A strategy like that, or even selecting Hall, isn’t for everyone. But if you love to be an aggressive fantasy coach, then Hall is an option. 

For me, Hall is on the watchlist. If he has a faultless pre-season on the injury front and has the rebounding role across the North Melbourne half-back, I’ll be seriously considering him, and you should too.

DRAFT DECISION

By drafting Aaron Hall, you’ll be opting into a potential D1, but you’ll be able to spend a D2 or, if he slides, a D3 draft spot on him. Injuries or role volatility to potential premiums do hurt more in draft formats. You can’t just replace them with another premium via a trade.

Instead, you are stuck looking through the player pool for a cover. If your picking Hall, I’d be protecting the selection by drafting deeper into the backline by getting some depth insurance. One of the keys to success in drafts is to protect each pick with the upcoming selections.

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10 Players Unlucky to Miss the 50 Most Relevant in 2022
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Read Time:9 Minute, 8 Second

Every season after I conclude the 50 Most Relevant, we love to look back at some of the unlucky players to miss the countdown. Here are 10 Players Who Missed The 50 Most Relevant

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Isaac Heeney

Timing is everything in the creation of the fifty most relevant. There is always some fluidity about the names and the ordering. However, as the preseason continues, adding and dropping certain players from the 50 is near impossible. For example, once the news of Issac Heeney being moved to a primary midfield role had been established, it was too late to add him over the top of others inside the top twenty or twenty-five.

Historically Henry has multiple years across the formats of averaging in the low to mid 90’s. With a more defined midfield, role coaches should be expecting that as the minimum return upon investment. If his scoring matches that of other recent Swans midfielders in Callum Mills, then we might have a candidate for one of the essential starting squad selections of the year. With the news of Mitch Duncan’s calf injury, coaches that previously couldn’t fit him in now have a straightforward pathway to add him without blowing up an existing structure.

Patrick Cripps

Just two years ago, Patrick Cripps was coming off the back of averaging 117 in SuperCoach and 101 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. Entering into 2022, he’s priced twenty points per game off that in AFLFantast/DreamTeam and nearly 35 in SuperCoach. With the news of Sam Walsh’s injury and him missing the opening few rounds, many could rightly presume that the Carlton skipper’s scoring will default to his 2016-2019 era.

The good news around Crippa is he’s as fit as he’s been in years. The challenge is that we’ve got players like Matt Crouch, Elliot Yeo, and Caleb Serong priced similarly in the formats. Where you rank Patrick alongside them will ultimately determine if he’s a viable option for you or not.

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Cam Rayner

Value is the name of the game, and across all formats, the potential value in Cam Rayner is exceptional. Across the formats, he’s priced as a genuine stepping stone option where his selection can have a dual impact. He provides a solid cash generation avenue while also delivering points on the field that are significantly stronger than the cash cow options.

He’s another victim of timing and his opportunity to be placed in the 50. With Rayner returning off an ACL, the club had until recently downplayed just how well he’d rehabilitated his knee and were playing a cautiously optimistic approach. However, track watchers and those within the club have no longer water down the expectations. It seems likely finally his talent, body and mind are all in sync to deliver him a stunning season. The final cherry on the top was when Chris Fagan said Rayner was ‘back to normal regarding his body and will have a significant role to play in the Lions midfield. Many have decided to lock him into their side with that news, and understandably so.

Nick Daicos

Much has been made about the fantasy pedigree of Nick Daicos, with many AFL recruiters speaking of him in the same vein as Matt Rowell or Sam Walsh. In his five NAB league games last year in SuperCoach, he scored 177, 166, 145, 169 & 138. In AFLFantasay, he averaged 136 over these games and was going at 35.8 disposals per game. In short, Daicos is a ball magnet and will be a regular feature of our fantasy teams once he reaches his potential.

He’s already part of the Magpies best 22. That’s no knock on the Magpies list, but rather an exclamation on how good a player he is already. The club has already given plenty of preseason love to him and hyped up his elite running patterns and ball use. Recently, magpie midfield coach Brendon Bolton told The Age that Nick would play a split role between the midfield and halfback. With in-season DPP gains now standard across all formats, I suspect we’ll see Daaicos become a MID/DEF by round six if the mooted role eventuates.

Rowan Marshall

The question isn’t when will Rowan Marshall fulfil his fantasy potential, but rather when. Some might even argue he already has. Back in 2019, when he played the clear #1 ruckmen, he averaged 99 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 110 in SuperCoach. Last year in the six games he played without Paddy Ryder, he averaged 103.7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 109.3 in SuperCoach. With many unsure who will be a top-two ruck in 2022, Marshall looms as a potential option should the patron get passed along in 2022, especially if he gets the majority share of the ruck minutes.

Jy Simpkin

One key thing that held Jy Simpkin back from being an option in the fifty most relevant is can he average 110+? In his 2020 breakout year as a forward, he became one of the best buys for the season. Simpkin had an average in the mid-’90s across the formats. For example, in his opening ten matches of 2021, he averaged 84 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 88 in SuperCoach. However, in the final en matches, he averaged 104.5 and had just one score under 90, while in SuperCoach, he averaged 104.8 and scored seven tons.

A 105 average is acceptable if your starting price point is an 80-85 range, not 95. However, to make him a worthwhile selection, he must close the gap between his average ceiling and those of the best premium midfielders in the game. I think a 110+ is well within his capabilities; the key will be to work his way through the tags and defensive attention from opposition coaches. If he can, then he’s every chance of knocking the door down to be a top-level premium.

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Charlie Curnow

It feels like an eternity ago, but when Charlie Curnow was drafted at the end of 2015, he was sold as someone who could become the most dominant tall in the AFL. His athleticism, strength, and contested marking were on full display in his first three seasons. However, Since 2019 a combination of injuries has seen him play just fifteen games.

Back in 2017 & 2018, he averaged low 70’s in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and mid-high 70’s in SuperCoach. From a price point in SuperCoach, he priced at $23,000 more than Jason Horne-Francis. In reality, he’s priced as a cash cow and given he’s best 22 and has a history of going 70+ for multiple years; it’s an easy selection. In AFLFaantasy/DreamTeam, he’s priced approximately at $350k, and while he presents value at his price point, it might not fit everyone’s structure. Regardless, he should still be a viable stepping stone candidate for those that jump on if fit.

Jason Horne-Francis

I rarely add players who’ve just been drafted into the 50 most relevant. Barring Matt Rowell and Sam Walsh, no other new draftee has ever made the countdown. Both of these guys and their debut seasons scoring have revolutionized the way people select cash cows. Previously, coaches had paid for the job security more than the scoring pedigree, but now it seems that these high-end midfielders are delivering both earlier in their AFL career.

The potential of what Jason Horne-Francis could be is scary. When playing against men last year in the SANFL preliminary final, he had 24 disposals, 11 clearances, three goals and scored 160 in SuperCoach and 112 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. North Melbourne has indicated he’ll play a MID/FWD split, with the latter more likely to be the heavier percentage. But, again, much like Nick Daicos above, the in-season DPP gain would only be of further benefit to coaches already thinking he’s worth spending up for.

A possible heavy forward time might cap some of his scoring ceilings, but he genuinely looks safe in the Roos best 22 and wouldn’t shock me if he pumped out a few 80+ scores early. The kid looks a beast!

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Dylan Stephens

Another example of how formats all handle the salary caps differently. As a result, a player like Dylan Stephens, regardless of his potential, cannot be considered in AFLFantasy. When you’re priced at $526,000 but Matt Rowell is $62k cheaper, you just can’t select him. It’s a different story in the other formats where he’ll set you back $167,800 in SuperCoach and $282,700 for DreamTeam.

The departure of Jordan Dawson to Adelaide opens up space on the Sydney wing, and it’s in that role that as a junior and the SANFL, he thrived and won plenty of his share of the outside ball. In SuperCoach & DreamTeam, he needs to be on the watchlist for how he tracks in the preseason games because if he gets the role and the share of the ball Dawson does, then we need to consider him seriously.

Tarryn Thomas

Over the past twelve months, it’s become impossible not to like what you’ve seen from North Melbourne in this rebuild. Plenty of attention has been put on recruits like Jason Horne-Francis, Tom Powell, and to a lesser extent, Will Phillips. However, not enough has been made of Tarryn Thomas. The classy first-round pick had a slow start to the season, playing predominantly as a forward. However, between rounds one – nine, he averaged 32% of centre bounce attendances, 15 possessions, and a 66 in AFLFantasy and 68 in SuperCoach.

It was from round ten that the role change hit, and as a result, we saw a dramatic increase in all elements. His CBA’s went up to an average of 49%. While his possessions jumped up to 20 per game, and in AFLFantasy, he averaged 92.5 and 96.7 in SuperCoach. All the noise coming from the Roos this preseason is that they expect to maintain this 50/50 MID/FWD split, and as a result, his scoring could push the top ten forwards.

Watch his role in the community series, but keep in mind which Roo midfielders might be missing. Otherwise, the splits might be misleading.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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#1 Most Relevant | Jackson Macrae
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Read Time:6 Minute, 41 Second

For the past four seasons, Jackson Macrae has been a consistent top tier premium midfielder across all formats of the game. However, he’s not just a good fantasy player he’s a brilliant footballer in general.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jackson Macrae
Age: 27
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score: 
159 Vs GWS (AFLFantasy)
162 Vs Brisbane (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
190 Vs Richmond | AFLFantasy (2018)
189 Vs Gold Coast | SuperCoach (2018)

2021 Average: 
115.9 (AFLFantasy)
128.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $699,900
AFLFantasy Price: $972,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $988,300

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Have you played fantasy footy in the past few seasons? Well then, if so, you could probably have saved me the time of writing this article. More than any other player, the case for Jackson Macrae is the most compelling of all premiums. Since breaking out in his second season with an average of over 100 across the formats, he’s been one of the best options available to us.

The reason he’s been so good for so long is because he has this incredible ability with the inside ball. Couple this with his elite endurance and workrate sees him get into space where there is seemingly none. And when he does get the ball, he punishes the opposition and helps set up his teams to push deep inside forward 50. Last year alone, he ranked by average top five in the league for effective disposals, uncontested possessions, goal assists, disposals, and handballs. He also ranked per game inside the top twenty for inside ’50s, kicks, contested possessions, stoppage clearances, centre clearances, clearances and score involvements. In short, he’s the everywhere man of the midfield.

Last season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he ranked fourth for total points scored, and his average of 115.9 also ranked him fourth in the competition. His season consisted of eighteen tons, six of these were above 120, and last year his scores fell under 90 in just one game. Before the Dogs bye round is where he did most of his damage, he scored twelve consecutive tons at an average of 122.5. After the break, his scoring did slide marginally, but a 108 is more than handy. When he did ton-up last year, he showcased that he is still a weekly VC/C option. His average score of when he does hit triple digits from 2021 was 121.

As great as the season was in this format, it’s SuperCoach where he continues to collect points without seemingly even trying. Last year, he scored twenty-one tons. Yes, that’s not a typo. Just once all season, he failed to hit triple digits, and in that game, he went 97! Twelve times his scores were over 130, and he ended the season ranked first in SuperCoach both for total points and by averages.

Over the past three seasons, Macrae has had one of the best fantasy scoring capacities. He’s played every one of the home and away games, a total of 61. In that timeframe, he’s averaged 114.8 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 124.5 in SuperCoach. That’s almost unheard of the past few seasons. But it’s not just built off the back of a few good ceiling games to shift the averages. Instead, it’s his incredible ability to deliver us triple-figure scores consistently. In the previous 61 games, he’s scored a ton in 78% of matches in AFLFantasy and 85 in SuperCoach.

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MY TAKE

Nobody should question the relevance of Jackson Macrae. He deserves his place in the fifty, as he’s been such a reliable premium for us for so long. But why has he been awarded the most relevant mantle for 2022? Simple, of all premiums across all lines and formats, Macrae is the most bulletproof. He might not be the top scoring option by the close of the year, but gosh, he’ll be right in the conversation across the formats.

What makes him so bulletproof is the fact that over the past four seasons, he’s consistently ranked in the top ten for total points. In SuperCoach, he’s been ranked first, fifth, second and ninth for total points. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s ranked fourth, seventh, second and eighth. In the 2018 season, he also missed three matches, so to finish inside the top ten total points players is simply incredible. I’ll repeat it; he’s bulletproof.

Macrae has no role concerns, even in the merry-go-round midfield of the Bulldogs. It’s just him, Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore that are staples of that unit, while all the other elements float around them. So in a year where coaches are concerned about players’ role within a team, you don’t have to be worried over Jackson. Say it with me; he’s bulletproof.

You’ll never see teams choose to tag him. Not when you’ve got one of the most influential contested players in the game with Tom Liberatore. Or one of the most potent players in the entire league. Meaning he’ll be free to use his high-end athleticism and workrate to get access to plenty of footy in 2022. Oh yes, he’s bulletproof!

Every coach wants a premium like Jackson Macrae in their squad. He is the personification of the perfect fantasy premium. High ceiling, consistency of scoring, almost non-existent basement, role security, captaincy option in every game and durable. Whatever the checklist you have for premium options to start on your side, Macrae has ticked them all multiple times over.

With four consecutive seasons averaging 120+ in SuperCoach, I can’t honestly see a good reason to pass on him in your starting squad. The only plausible explanation is a personal preference of others like Clayton Oliver, Jack Steele or Touk Miller over him. But even then, that feels like a flawed argument. So I say once more; he’s bulletproof.

The post-bye scores of 2021 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam might be enough for some coaches in those formats to back against him and target him as an upgrade option. And I can see the logic in that. The thing is, that’s his scoring basement. If a 108 is the ‘worst-case scenario, then I’ll happily back him in as it’s only seven points per game drift from his starting price. Again, if this worst-case scenario, I’ll happily still back him in knowing the upside is 120+.

One extra sweeter reason for me in starting with Jackson in the early fixture for the Bulldogs. It further enhances in my eyes him as one of the best vice-captaincy options. Over the first six weeks, the doggies play Wednesday Night, Thursday Night, Thursday Night, Saturday Night, Friday afternoon and then the first game of a Saturday.

Rather than finding a way to bring him in during the season, I’m starting him in every format and eliminating the worry.

DRAFT DECISION

In the previous three seasons, if you’d wanted to own Jackson Macrae then he’d cost you an early first-round selection. That won’t change in 2022. He’s gone off every board by no later than the first five picks.

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Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
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Have your say at our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

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About Post Author

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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#2 Most Relevant | Lachie Neale
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Read Time:8 Minute, 25 Second

Coming off the back of winning a Brownlow Medal, expectations were sky-high that Lachie Neale would continue his fantasy footy dominance. However, a combination of injuries across the year stunted any of those opportunities. After an injury-free pre-season, Neale is primed and ready to re-establish himself as one of the best premium players in fantasy footy.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Lachie Neale
Age: 28
Club: Brisbane Lions
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score: 
145 Vs Essendon (AFLFantasy)
157 Vs Essendon (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
169 Vs GWS | AFLFantasy (2016)
190 Vs Richmond | SuperCoach (2019)

2021 Average: 
94.5 (AFLFantasy)
99.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $543,200
AFLFantasy Price: $792,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $805,500

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Nothing about the 2021 AFL season went to plan for Lachie Neale. It all started pearshaped from early on in the preseason when a niggling calf injury lingered through the preseason. Then, just as this was finally clearing up, Neale entered the preseason with some back tightness that was starting to impact his ability to move with his usual freedom. From a fantasy perspective, it was apparent with 68 & 51 in AFLFantasy and 77 & 75 in SuperCoach.

By round three, he’d started to get back towards his regular scoring, and between rounds three go six, he averaged 114.6 in AFLFantasy and 110.3 in SuperCoach. However, it was early in round six he suffered a serious ankle injury, and despite pushing through, he ended up getting subbed out of the game and missing the next six weeks.

Over the final nine games of the year, he started to see some more positive trends from Neale. In that time, he averaged 26 possessions and went at a SuperCoach average of 109.5 and 104.1 in AFLFantasy. By the close of the home and away season, he finished off in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam with an average of 94.5 and scored nine tons. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 99.8 and scored seven scores in triple digits. Even in a difficult season, he still ranked 9th by avg for stoppage clearances and top 30 for clearances & contested possessions.

What has set fantasy coaches tongues wagging was that we finally saw the ceiling of Lachie Neale in a dominant football display. In the losing quarter-final to the Demons, he had 46 possessions, five marks, three tackles and scored 140 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 152 in SuperCoach. That’s ominous signs that the 2020 Brownlow Medal scoring that was visible from Neale was still within his grasp.

You don’t win a Brownlow Medal without having a phenomenal season, and in 2020 it was a blinder of a year from Lachie Neale. He averaged 27 possessions, six score involvements, five clearances, five inside ’50s, four marks and 3. tackles per game.

Across the league, he ranked first for contested possessions, disposals, effective disposals, second for clearances, third for stoppage clearances and inside ’50s and fifth for total score involvements. From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he was simply elite. He ended the season 107 points clear of second-place (Clayton Oliver). He averaged 98 (adjusted 122.5) and scored 10 tons, three over 120 and four further scores between 80 and 99. No other player in these formats scored as many pure 100’s as Neale in 2020.

Lachie Neale’s SuperCoach season was even more potent. His career-high average of 134 resulted in him being one of only two players (Max Gawn) that averaged over 123. From a total points perspective, he was the clear leader, with Jack Steele in second place who was 202 behind him.

These numbers are elite, as he scored 14 tons, and 10 of them were over 140. Speaking of tons, his lowest across the season was 113. All year, he only failed to reach triple figures in just three games. What’s encouraging for owners considering selecting him this year is that he’s shown some elite scoring tendencies since being a Lion.

Before last seasons multi injury fest, he’d been incredibly durable. He was missing just two matches between 2014-2020. So despite having three unrelated injuries in a single season, the notion that some have proposed that he’s now injury-prone is preposterous. According to the club, Neale has never been as fit and strong as he is right now. So for those backing in another injury-riddled season, the odds are far from in your favour.

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MY TAKE

The 50 most relevant is designed to look at all AFL players that I believe are the most relevant across all fantasy footy formats of the game. Some are more valuable and relevant in specific formats than others throughout the series. For example, despite Lachie Neale being one of the most relevant across all formats, I think we break down his relevancy based on each format in this article.

In SuperCoach, he is absolutely a no brainer, and the reality is he should be in 100% of serious coaches teams. Fellow panellist Rids often says that you obviously don’t want to win when you disregard the obvious. He is the supreme value at his price point and probably one of the season’s best buys. In his first two seasons at the Lions, he averaged 121 and 134. And in the three seasons prior at the Dockers, he averaged 112, 109 & 111. The injuries in 2021 are the outlier. Priced at 99, he has anywhere between ten and twenty points per game of value and has proven in multiple seasons he’s a dependable vice-captaincy/ captaincy candidate in most weeks.

To go against him, I believe is being too cute because the reason you’d miss him is based on unfounded injury history or around a lack of value. He is already value for money, and with a matchup against Port Adelaide, Essendon, North Melbourne, Geelong, Collingwood and Gold Coast, there’s only one game with a history of tagging him of late. To pass on him is going against one of the best gifts coaches could ask for and is frankly dangerous. He’s $100k cheaper than Marcus Bontempelli and will probably outscore him in 2022.

AFLDreamTeam could be the perfect player in your starting lineup. He presents value, and the overwhelming data suggests Neale is a 103-110 player in most seasons. He could become a valuable option at that range to end the season by drifting out to your M8. It’s probably not enough for him to be top eight midfielders; he’s also not a weekly VC/C option, but it’s safe and reliable most weeks. Others might see him in this format as one to take on and in this format, I’d understand it. At 49% ownership, the decision either way could be season-defining. Regardless, he’s still insanely relevant even if you got against him.

For me, AFLFantasy is the most intriguing format to discuss. The upside to starting him is you know he’ll go around the 105 range, barring another injury. But is that enough? At that space, he offers a solid price bump and either at the early stages of the year or the Lions round 14 bye; he becomes a fallen uber premium off the bye via a trade. Equally, you could hold for the season.

To succeed in this format, value is the ultimate key. And turning that value quickly. The big question to ponder is whether or not what he offers coaches is’ will it be enough? Does a cheaper option get your cash generation going quicker? More importantly, is can you get a comparable scoring output over the opening six weeks with players at a cheaper range? Throughout the 50, we’ve discussed players like Caleb Serong, Elliot Yeo & Matt Crouch? All could be more viable options that don’t have to score as much to generate the same cash generation due to a cheaper price point. But if they can, your in an even stronger position. To go against him, you banking on a 105 maximum in the opening six weeks and that his bigger ceiling games come later. Because if not, and some ceiling pops early you might be turning your nose at a potentially season-defining option.

In SuperCoach, he’s a certainty. While in AFLFantasy & DreamTeam, you have to consider him seriously. It’s not very often you get these consistent performance levels at the price point.

DRAFT DECISION

Lachie Neale’s draft range is fascinating for me and will vary from format. I know it seems obscene to suggest, but I do see a world where in SuperCoach leagues he could be selected as in the second round, and if coaches aren’t paying attention, it might be even a super early third. At that point, declare yourself the draft winner if that happens. Currently, on The Draft Doctors Mock Draft Simulator, he’s got an average draft position of 19. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam leagues, he’s probably going in the third to fourth rounds and likely as someone’s M2. On the mock simulator, he’s currently going at an ADP of 29.

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#3 Most Relevant | Brodie Grundy
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Read Time:7 Minute, 20 Second

For years Brodie Grundy has been our first picked player. However, after a slow finish to the season, it has fantasy coaches wondering. Is he a value for money guy, or will others surpass him as a top 2 ruck?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Brodie Grundy
Age: 27
Club: Collingwood
Position: Ruck

2021 Highest Score: 
152 Vs Brisbane (AFLFantasy)
162 Vs Brisbane (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
181 Vs GWS Giants | AFLFantasy (2019)
179 Vs Western Bulldogs | SuperCoach (2020)

2021 Average: 
106.4 (AFLFantasy)
115.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $627,100
AFLFantasy Price: $893,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $907,700

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Round 18, 2013 against the GWS Giants. That was the game that Brodie Grundy made his debut on the MCG. In that match, he showcased just why the Collingwood Football Club was so thrilled to get him the year prior in the AFL Draft. That night his trademark athletic traits and workrate was on display, and it was from that game on fantasy coaches could see that Brodie was going to be a beast for us for many seasons to come.

That AFLFantasy/SuperCoach scoring was on display last year. In 2021 he averaged 106.4 in AFLFantasy, which leaves him ranked second among the rucks behind Max Gawn. He posted eleven triple-figure scores from his twenty games, seven of the above 120 and two over 140. While in SuperCoach, his average of 115 was made up of thirteen tons, ten over 120 and four scores over 140.

From a topline view, that looks strong but marginally down on his previous seasons, which is correct. However, one significant thing happened in 2021 that is built into the numbers that must be addressed. In round 11 against the Cats, Grundy suffered a freak neck injury that saw him kept subbed out of the game at 48% time on the ground and rushed to hospital. Thankfully, he returned to the side a few weeks later, but he never quite achieved the same scoring heights as before.

Before the injury, Grundy was averaging 115.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 126.5 in SuperCoach. That scoring trend was parallel to what he’d done in 2020 and even the prior season. Post-injury upon his return, the Magpies changed coaches and started experimenting. As a result, his scoring plummeted by his standards down to 100 in AFLFantasy and 107 in SuperCoach. As fantasy coaches, we all expect and want him to return to the scoring before the neck injury. However, the positive for coaches is that everything went against him after hurting his neck. With role changes and game tweaks, he still averaged 100+—a handy basement to keep in the back of our minds.

2020 started just like the 2018 and 2019 seasons had for Brodie Grundy. A round one score of 179 in SuperCoach and 114 (142 adjusted) in AFLFantasy had owners delighted to start his year. He still led the league for hitouts (32 avg) and ranked 20th for total stoppage clearances even with the shorter quarters. As the season closed out in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he ended the year averaging 90.9 (adjusted average 113). This consisted of five tons, six between 90-99, + an 82. Across the competition, he ranked 5th for total points and 10th for averages. Over in SuperCoach, he averaged 120 for the year and ranked 6th for toral points and averages overall. His season consisted of 15 tons, eight over 120, a huge five over 140 and just one score under 85.

Since 2018 he’s been a fantasy beast. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s 120, 122 and adjusted 113 and last year, 106.4. The scoring is similar in SuperCoach, going at 130, 130, 120 & 115. Some might say the trend is heading downwards, but I believe the reasons for the trend are easy to classify as outliers more than a players regression. Statistically, the injury and Magpies ‘experimenting’ was why his scoring slid back so drastically.

Outside of the shocking neck injury that saw him get subbed out against Geelong and miss the next few weeks, Grundy has been one of the most durable players in the game. Between 2018-2020 he hadn’t missed a game. And from 2016 to now, he’s missed just five games of footy. Throw in the fact that Grundy offers a minimum of ten points per game of value, and it’s a genuine challenge to pass him up. He hasn’t been this cheap since the start of the 2017 season.

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MY TAKE

Nobody needs to tell Brodie Grundy about the challenges of his 2021 season. He’s fully aware of them. At the start of the pre-season, he was adamant about returning back to his best, and the key to doing so he believed, was getting back to peak fitness. He told the AFL website in December that “I’ve trimmed up, just trying to give myself the best opportunity to play my best footy, and I think that probably starts with just having a really good pre-season and just getting as fit as I can.”

Towards the end of last season, we saw under the interim coaching structures that Collingwood started to experiment in multiple ways. Both in-game style and in players positions. This had a direct impact on Brodie, both from a role but also the scoring output. Last year, Grundy had six games that he played in full, resulting in him winning 30 hitouts or less. Four of these came in the six matches of the year. Additionally, pre-injury, he had just two games with under 80 centre bounce attendances, but post-injury, he had five.

We must consider two essential elements when it comes to Brodie Grundy. One is surrounding the key position and ruck stocks at the club. The other is more about the other premium ruck contenders in fantasy footy.

Whenever a new coach takes over, there is always an immediate adjustment in the team’s playing style and even the cattle used. So while it might feel uncomfortable to ask, we need to consider how the Magpies will use Grundy alongside the other key position players. They cannot play Brodie alongside Darcy Cameron & Mason Cox. If anything, one of them will be used to partner him. But what’s the level of ruck/fwd split? In all honesty, it won’t be much of a split. Grundy is one of the best rucks in the league. At 27 years of age, he’s arguably only now just hitting his peak. And with all respect to Cameron & Cox. Their best isn’t even close to removing Brodie. So positionally, his function is secure.

In my opinion, Brodie Grundy is the most bulletproof premium ruck in 2022. He has the least concerns surrounding role sharing, durability, ceiling & proven overall scoring. All other candidates as a top-two premium ruck have a minimum of one significant question mark. For Max Gawn & Rowan Marshall, it’s surrounding his role split with Luke Jackson and Paddy Ryder. Sean Darcy has durability red flags. Reilly O’Brien hasn’t got the overwhelming ceiling across the formats. While NicNat is only an option in SuperCoach.

Throw in the fact that he’s providing coaches genuine value for money for the first time in nearly five years, and it’s a relatively easy selection. Every team will be looking to start a minimum of one premium ruck this year, and to my eyes, Brodie is the safest pick of the lot. So I’m starting him in every format.

DRAFT DECISION

12-24 months ago, Brodie Grundy was the consensus #1 pick across all drafting formats. While he’s still in consideration for some, it’s no longer as clear cut. Grundy is still a top 5 pick and won’t last for those with a mid-first-round selection.

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#4 Most Relevant | Jack Steele
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Read Time:8 Minute, 9 Second

The fantasy football Superman of the past few seasons has been Jack Steele. He’s taken his game from a reliable midfielder who can score well into one of the best premiums on any week. However, the signs are ominous that Jack still has another scoring gear to use.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jack Steele
Age: 26
Club: St Kilda
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score: 
162 Vs Carlton (AFLFantasy)
158 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
162 Vs Carlton| AFLFantasy (2021)
167 Vs Brisbane | SuperCoach (2020)

2021 Average: 
121.3 (AFLFantasy)
126 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $685,800
AFLFantasy Price: $1,020,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $1,034,800

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For the past two seasons, Jack Steele has become one of the most prolific and well-rounded midfielders in the AFL. Offensively and defensively, he does it all around the ground. And then, to add cream to the top, he knows how to finish and impact the scoreboard. He ranks second in the league for tackles and sixth for contested possessions by game averages. He’s also ranked inside the top twenty for centre clearances, stoppage clearances, inside ’50s, handbells, disposals and effective disposals.

The story behind those stats is this. If the Saints need someone to win the contested ball, they look to him. If they need some defensive pressure applied, they can go to him. If they need a scoreboard impact, then he’s the man. In short, whatever the need, the St Kilda skipper has and will continue to be the solution.

His AFLFantasy/DreamTeam season was stunning. His average of 121.3 was the second-highest average of the formats, with him just 0.7 behind Touk Millier. He also ended the season as the number one overall points scorer, with 94 points over Jarryd Lyons. He scored nineteen tons, eleven of them above 120 and three over 140. To go with his high ceiling was that he had just three scores below 90 all year and didn’t drop his scoring under 78. I could stop there, and we’d all acknowledge it as a strong season. But it gets better. Before the bye round, in his first thirteen matches, he was averaging 112.9. Impressive, but he got better. Over the final nine games of the year, he averaged 133.5. Six of those scores were over 130, and nothing was under 106.

His season was just as prolific in SuperCoach. He ranked second for total points and was less than 60 points behind overall leader Jackson Macrae. His average of 126 was ranked second in the competition and was one of only five players last year to average 120 or higher. His year featured nineteen scores over 100, thirteen over 120 and a monster eight that went 140+. In addition to this barrage of monster scores, his scoring didn’t fall under 91 all season long.

Like in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, his pre and post-bye splits are sensational. In the first thirteen games of the year, he was pumping out 118.5. As strong as that is, his 136.7 over the final nine weeks blows it out of the water. In summary, if you Steele in your team during 2021, you were delighted with the result. If you had him over the last few months, you were ecstatic.

This uber season was a further elevation of what he delivered in 2020. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he returned five tons, six additional scores over 90 and one score below 70. Remembering that ’80 was the new 100′, that’s an incredibly prolific scoring season factoring in the shorter quarters. He ended the season ranked fifth for total scoring and 10th by averages. His 2020 seasonal average of 90.9 is an adjusted average equivalent of 113.

In SuperCoach, he finished the season ranked third for averages, with Lachie Neale and Max Gawn higher than Steele. He ranked second from a total points perspective, with only Neale scoring more in 2020. From his 17 games last year, he scored 13 tons, ten were above 120, and a crazy six were above 135. Those are genuine captaincy numbers almost every single week. Besides his frequency of tons, his scoring floor is just as strong. His lowest score of 86 was just one of 4 scorers below 100 all season.

Over the past few seasons, there haven’t been many players better across the formats. His durability, ceiling and high scoring floor make him the perfect candidate to build your starting squad around. Many will ponder that his scoring cannot increase, but the reality is his final nine games of the season, he was scoring at a world record pace. If he even gets near those scores and he’s not in your starting squad, then you might see the season vanish quickly before you can afford him. Jacke Steele is one of a real handful of players that can deliver or destroy your season within just weeks.

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MY TAKE

What caused the increase in the post-bye run scoring? Because Jack Steele went from being a reasonable premium to the one you couldn’t afford to be without. The scoring bump came with an increase from 27 possessions per game to an average of 31. Additionally, his tackles increased from eight to nine. Is that trend maintainable? Honestly, it’s not a drastically high and unattainable number to maintain.

Jack Steele needs to be a captaincy/vice-captaincy option at his price point in every match. Thankfully, he’s one of the most dependable options. One of the significant factors is that he’s not dependent on one specific element to score well. So even when he faces a tagger, he still scores in different avenues other than just through pure ball-winning. An example of this was in round 19; he had only 18 possessions but still scored a 106 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 109 in SuperCoach. With such a low disposal number, how did he still ton-up? Through his thirteen tackles. And here lies the beauty of Steele. Because he scores through possessions, marks, tackles and goals, he will always be a player capable of scoring.

Because he scores in every column, building a case for significant regression in scoring is challenging. The only viable narrative I can see that makes sense for the slight scoring decline is more due to the Improvement of the midfielders around him. Jack Steele is only one man, and as brilliant as he is, if the Saints are to push back into finals, he will need significant support around him. It’s this more than any other argument I’ve considered or seen this preseason that’s likely to have some if any effect on his scoring.

It’s a lot of salary cap space to use to justify selecting him. But statistically, he’s worth it. At the end of the season, you’ll be wanting Steele in your finished squad. To generate the high level of cash required to get up to him (and potentially others) via trade may become near impossible to do. It’s why the starting squad structures can enable you to make the salary movements now and not later. At the end of the day, once you own a player, their price is irrelevant unless you trade them out. So, even if Jack has a scoring regression to a 115, it’ll mean little for current owners. You still have a clear topline captaincy option weekly already on your side.

In the podcast (which you can find below), Lewy highlighted a point that must not be ignored. Over the open five weeks of the year, the Saints play a rebuild Magpies outfit in round one. Fremantle in week two, Richmond is up next who historically allow opposition freedom of fantasy points across the ground. Finally, they play another rebuilding team in Hawthorn and the decimated Suns in week five in round four. That is arguably as good a fixture as both the Saints and Jack Steele could ask for.

While he does present ‘value’ based on his price and what he delivered over the last few months of the season, you are not picking him on those grounds. You’re picking Steele because he’s a safe captain/vice-captain every week. You’re picking him because he’s one of the clear best fantasy premiums in the game. Don’t get stuck on the value game; sometimes it’s just not there, and at his price range, it doesn’t need to be.

I don’t want the headache of chasing him. I want to enjoy fantasy footy this year. Lock and load Jack Steele in 2022!

DRAFT DECISION

On draft day unless you have a pick inside the top three you can kiss goodbye any dreams of owning Jack Steele this season. He’s a genuine contender for the number one pick overall and won’t slide much beyond that regardless of the format you play in.

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#5 Most Relevant | Josh Dunkley
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Read Time:7 Minute, 45 Second

2021 was a season of two split experiences for Josh Dunkley and fantasy coaches. Over the opening six weeks, he was among the best players in the game. However, once he came back from injury, he was being outperformed by cash cows. So what does 2022 hold for this Western Bulldog?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Josh Dunkley
Age: 25
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: Midfield/Forward

2021 Highest Score: 
151 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy)
148 Vs Gold Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
189 Vs Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2019)
202 Vs Melbourne | SuperCoach (2019)

2021 Average: 
91.5 (AFLFantasy)
102.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $558,200
AFLFantasy Price: $767,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $780,600

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Josh Dunkley is one of the most enjoyable players to own in fantasy footy. The reason being is he finds a way to score through every column imaginable. In reality, he is one of the most well-rounded midfielders in the game. Dunks can win the contested ball, applies high defensive pressure, is a strong tackler, gets into space to win the uncontested ball and is a super overhead mark for his size.

Over the opening six weeks of 2021, Josh was one of the best premiums in fantasy footy. And had it not been for a dislocated shoulder, the scoring trend and midfield dominance would’ve continued. While it was frustrating at the time, it has created a silver lining in 2022. As a result of the injury, Dunks was eased back into the Bulldogs side with a heavy forward role. The result is he has held his MID/FWD DPP for yet another season.

In totality over the season, Dunkley averaged 91.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102.5 in SuperCoach. These overall averages make him one of the highest-scoring capacity forwards. However, the reality is the birds-eye view of his season doesn’t do his year justice. In the first six rounds of the season, he hadn’t had a score dip below 100 in any format and was averaging 115 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and an insane 129 in SuperCoach.

I don’t care what anyone says; that’s insane scoring capacity. If you owned him during these six weeks, you knew that your season was getting an early injection of points that many couldn’t. And for those without him, you were scampering, finding ways to bring him in before his price got too unattainable.

From the moment he suffered his dislocated shoulder, things went pearshaped. He spent months on the sidelines recovering, only to, upon his return, play one match before a two-week stint in isolation due to covid protocols. Throw in a heavy forward role designed to get game time and confidence into his body; it’s safe to say things didn’t go to plan for Josh over the final portion of the season. Positively, in the AFL Finals, things started to trend back to pre-injury scoring capacities. Visually, here are the critical elements of what Dunkley’s season looked like.

2020 was a crazy year for Josh Dunkley. First, he could find himself playing as a defensive forward from an on-field perspective, then a ball-winning midfielder and even as a pinch-hitting ruckman. 

Despite the role rollercoaster ride of his position, his SuperCoach season as a whole held firm. He opened the season with a three-game average of 108, including two scores over 128. Then, however, Dunks was sidelined with a severe ankle injury until round ten.

Upon his return, he played the remaining eight games, scored 3 tons, including a 151 and delivered the lowest score of 87. From a seasonal perspective, he ended the year averaging 104. Not bad for a guy whose role would change constantly. The positive for SuperCoachers is that Josh finds a way to score well regardless of the role he’s asked to execute.

I don’t even need to go into his historical data trends because you get the idea. When given ample midfield time, Josh Dunkley can end the season as not just the #1 fantasy football forward but the top-scoring player overall in all formats of the game.

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MY TAKE

One of the things that helped the Dogs win them the premiership in 2016 was versatility and flexibility. The negative for fantasy coaches is that when players are used unpredictably in multiple roles, it can be challenging to have confidence in selecting a player, especially if one of those secondary roles isn’t fantasy-friendly.

Even if Dunkley is one of the Bulldogs caught up in the midfielder merry-go-round with a rotation or two impacted, he still can add forward pressure and convert on the scoreboard, which makes him a damaging option when needed inside forward 50. Just look back at his debut season of 2016. He posted eight scores north of 8, including 4 tons in AFLFantasy, and five times scoring 80+ including a 99 in SuperCoach. So regardless of the role he is needed to fill, Josh will achieve. But will it be in and around the ’90s? Or will it be somewhere north of 110?

Dunkley offers something unique to the midfield options of Tom Liberatore, Adam Treloar, Jackson Macrae, Bailey Smith and Marcus Bontempelli. As an individual, he boasts a high-end defensive workrate, but not at the cost of ball-winning. No other Bulldogs midfielder has that skill combination of Josh. It’s why I believe that the move for him playing him in a more forward heavy role later in the year was linked towards building his fitness than about the best need for the club.

Whenever a player misses multiple months of footy through injury, it always takes time to get back to their peak physically. We also saw that with players like Dylan Shiel and Matt Rowell last year. However, long term injuries are hard to come back from, so the fact Dunkley even got back is a testament to his workrate and commitment.

Selecting Josh, or any other player for that matter, does have an element of risk in the selection. And like any risk, it can be viewed from both perspectives. One angle of viewing the risk is that given the bounty of midfield options the Bulldogs have, you have zero confidence in his role, and thus his scoring variation could yo-yo weekly. The 180-degree perspective is that if Josh Dunkley does have enough midfield minutes, he’s got the scoring ceiling to match it with the best in the game. After 4-6 rounds of him going 120+, you’d have to adjust strategies to bring him in drastically.

Last year at round six, he averaged 115 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 129 in SuperCoach. If you didn’t own him, it was just luck that stopped him running away with your season. He’s got the scoring capability within him. I’d be encouraging you to use hindsight to help.

The risk of him ‘failing’ and going an 85-90 at his price point is of minimal impact to your end of season results. Frustrating? Absolutely, but not a year killer. Going against him and having him pop a 110+ run of games can be season destroying. That’s why I’m starting him everywhere. I think the risk of him failing as a selection is as accurate as the potential of him smashing it. For me, I’d instead lean on the side of the ceiling upside with the knowledge that his downside isn’t as catastrophic as many believe. Others, however, will be different and see the same things but take a different conclusion.

That’s what I love about fantasy footy. We can all see the same data but justifiably come to different conclusions. That’s what the preseason is about, starting a conversation, looking at possibilities and then backing your gut and doing what you believe is suitable for you.

DRAFT DECISION

The drafting range of Josh Dunkley is fascinating to me. In some leagues, he’s a later first-round selection. Others believe the risk of insufficient midfield time isn’t worth jumping inside the first few rounds. Ultimately if you want to own Dunkley, you’ll be spending a top 10-25 selection on him. However, his potential scoring linked to the lack of top-end forwards means he’s someone many will consider strongly early.

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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#6 Most Relevant | Mitch Duncan
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Read Time:6 Minute, 20 Second

Now and then, we’re gifted a player in our forward lines that are just a walk-up in our starting squads. In 2022 we’ve been given Mitch Duncan as a MID/FWD. Is he as obvious a selection as he appears? Or are there some underlying signs we need to be scared of?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Mitch Duncan
Age: 30
Club: Geelong Cats
Position: Midfield/Forward

2021 Highest Score: 
146 Vs West Coast (AFLFantasy)
149 Vs West Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
169 Vs Western Bulldogs | AFLFantasy (2017)
156 Vs Collingwood | SuperCoach (2020)

2021 Average: 
100.3 (AFLFantasy)
99.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $540,000
AFLFantasy Price: $841,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $855,200

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For the past few seasons, Mitch Duncan has been one of the secret weapons of coaches in fantasy footy. With a solid historical ceiling, coaches would often look to him to be a point of difference in their sides. However, Duncan’s ability to be the perfect modern midfielder is damaging. He has no issues winning the contested footy or getting his hands on the ball for a clearance. But it’s when allowed to find space he becomes one of the most damaging midfielders in the game.

He ranked ninth in the league for marks by averages, fifteenth for score involvements and sixteenth for uncontested possessions. Of course, with no context or understanding, these averages may mean little to you. But what they show is Mitch’s fantastic ability to get into damaging open spaces on the ground and then capitalise in those moments by turning them into scoreboard impacts for his Cats.

It was a frustrating season for Duncan with just ten games, but he still displayed his fantasy pedigree within those matches. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored six tons, four of them over 130 and only one score under 80 that wasn’t injury impacted. In round 14, he played just 6% time on the ground. If we removed just that match his average balloons up to 110.5. Higher than Zach Merrett, Callum Mills and Sam Walsh. Yet, even without any ‘manipulation’ of the numbers, he’s still the clear number two ranked midfielder based on his average.

For SuperCoach, he ended the season with an average of 99.2. Then, using the same ‘manipulation’ of deducting that Bulldogs clash, his average jumps a further ten points per game to 109.1. Last year he posted five tons, four of them over 120 and two over 130. He’s also the second-highest ranked forward in this format, but this time behind Josh Dunkley.

2021 isn’t an out of the box scoring season. Mitch Duncan, for years, has been one of the most reliable 100+ performing midfielders. Since 2017 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s averaged 112.5, 101.8, 105.6, an adjusted 105.8 and 1003 last season. While in SuperCoach in the same five-year stretch, he’s averaged 109.8, 106.2, 103.2 & 99.2. So his average over the past five years is 104.4 in SuperCoach and 105.2 in AFLFantasy from the past 89 home and away games. So from a visual perspective, it looks like this.

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MY TAKE

So much of the storyline around Mitch Duncan is that he’s injury-prone. However, is it a trend that’s been building over the past few seasons or is it a relatively new trend? Between 2016-2020 Duncan had missed just four games and had never missed more than two matches in a single season. While he did miss twelve games last year, three separate issues were the primary cause of missing bulk games:

  1. His preseason and ultimately the season was ruined by a nagging calf injury.
  2. A PCL injury was sustained against the Bulldogs that kept him out for two months.
  3. He also did have a concussion in round ten against Gold Coast.

However, beyond last year he’s been relatively durable. So what’s caused the ‘injury’ tag outside of three separate issues the previous year? Beyond recency bias, it’s actually that there are three distinct ‘in game’ injuries in the past twenty home and away games. Two of them last year and one in 2020. These early injuries further compound the notion that he’s injury-prone, as he’s gone down early in the matches on all occasions.

The reality is the only genuine case for not selecting Mitch Duncan is around the growing injury history. I see no evidence to suggest his scoring will dry up. Equally, The Geelong squad is entirely primed for now, so while I expect some tweaks to the game style, I don’t see a drastic overhaul. That means the Geelong possession heavy game will be here to stay.

A players injury history is a relevant piece, but it’s not a certainty that it continues. There are numerous times players have had a poor injury but then get to a point in their career and turn it around. The best most recent example is Josh Kelly. He delivers after years of failing to play 20+ games in a season. The way you offset the history is by starting the player in question. That way, you bank the player’s points on the field for the maximum amount of weeks possible. And should an injury occur, it’ll only cost you the one trade out of your team.

However, if you opt to go against a player in your starting squad, I always encourage coaches to commit to that thought process and stay away for the season? Why? Because with every completed game, the variable of injury only further increases. Therefore, if you trade into the player and go down injured, the move is costing you two trades, not one.

I can justify any coach not choosing to start with him because he suffers some form of injury setback in the final few weeks before round one. As potentially valid as that risk is, you also have an inverse risk with Duncan. If you opt to go against him early, you could be getting burnt by weeks of a player scoring 110+. I have zero concerns or questions about his scoring abilities. Therefore, starting Mitch Duncan is one of the simplest starting squad options I can advocate for in 2022.

DRAFT DECISION

I’ve been clear throughout this series that I think the first three forwards off the board will be Josh Dunkley, Tim Taranto, and Mitch Duncan in drafts. Of course, coaches might have a personal preference on who they’d take first. But the range for each will be similar from the middle portion of the first round right through the middle of the second.

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#7 Most Relevant | Jake Lloyd
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Read Time:6 Minute, 30 Second

For the first time in years, we saw a scoring regression from Jake Lloyd. But with the departure of Jordan Dawson do we see him back towards his average as a 110 defender?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jake Lloyd
Age: 28
Club: Sydney Swans
Position: Defender

2021 Highest Score: 
119 Vs Richmond (AFLFantasy)
154 Vs Gold Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
163 Vs Fremantle | AFLFantasy (2018)
173 Vs Fremantle | SuperCoach (2018)

2021 Average: 
98 (AFLFantasy)
107.7 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $586,600
AFLFantasy Price: $823,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $808,600

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For the first time in his career, the fantasy scoring progression of Jake Lloyd finally started to slow. Yet, in this ‘downwards’ trending season, he was still one of the most reliable defenders in the game. Last year he ranked third in the league for effective disposals per game. While also finished in the fifteen ten ranks for rebound ’50s, bounces, uncontested possessions, and kicks per game.

By the close of the season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he ranked fifth for total points among all defenders and his average of 98 and has him also ranked fifth. His year consisted of twelve tons, and only twice across the year did his scoring dip beneath 80. While the ceiling games have fallen away (with only a top of 119), his basement scoring is just as good as ever. From a consistency perspective, that can be best highlighted by the fact that his pre bye average of 98.6 is almost identical to his post-bye rounds average of 97.1

His SuperCoaach season was even stronger. His average of 107.7 was the highest of the format of the currently available defenders. While for total points, he’s ranked third, with only Jack Crisp and Daniel Rich scoring more. He scored fifteen tons over the season, including 154, 142 and 124. All year he had just one score under 93 all year long. His seasonal splits were annoyingly consistent, where he averaged 108.3 pre bye and 106.7 post-bye.

It’s still a great season, but when it sits alongside his 2020 season, it shows the sliding scoring, especially when it comes to his ceiling games of 120+ scores. From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he finished the season as the clear top-ranked defender for averages and total points. He averaged 91.4 (114 adjusted) and scored 6 tons, eight additional scores between 80-99 and had just three scores below 80 all season. Don’t forget, an 80 in these formats last year was the equivalent of a 100 due to the shortened game time.

For SuperCoach, he averaged 122 from his 17 games. He scored sixteen tons, nine over 120, and a massive four over 140. He had just one sub 100 score (73) all year. That came in round one against the Crows. He scored 16 consecutive tons to end the season from that point on. No other player last year achieved that.

Since 2018 he’s averaged 101.6, 107, adjusted 114 and 98 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. And in SuperCoach, it’s even better he’s gone at 112, 109, 122 and last years 107.7. To go with his scoring ceiling and strong basement, having missed two games since 2016.

In a line when most premiums are either at maxed out the capacity of scoring or have serious questions around durability. Lloyd creates the perfect combination of ceiling scores, high basement and quality availability. You cannot go wrong when you pick Lloyd in your side this season.

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MY TAKE

It’s baffling that people are not discussing Jake Lloyd more in fantasy footy circles. Perhaps because he’s such a reliably good option, the community feels they no longer need to examine him. However, the reality is that in what many believe was a ‘poor’ year by his previous lofty standards, he was still a top-five defender in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and top three in SuperCoach.

When I look at the scoring trend of Jake Lloyd, it’s clear to see that the loss of ceiling was the causation of him not being the top defenders from a points perspective. There’s an apparent primary cause for this. The Sydney game style last year undertook a drastic transformation. Last year the Swans looked to move the ball on much more direct and efficient. As a result, the transition possession fell away; all be it marginally. This, not the splitting of kick-in, was the reason for a scoring slide.

Early in the season, he seemed to have a split role with Jordan Dawson, for which Sydney Swan would take the kick-in duties. Heading into the bye round, it was nearly a 50-50 share between them. However, post-bye, Lloyd had a clear Monopoly on the function with only Harry Cunningham, Jordan Dawson and Dane Rampe having the rare opportunity. Remember earlier, I shared the pre and post scoring splits of Jake. There’s nothing of note in terms of scoring deviation. So those hoping a Dawson departure will be the sole catalyst for recapturing a 110+ season might be a little disappointed.

Countless times throughout the fifty, I’ve highlighted that the backline feels like the line where you can get the most aggressive. I still hold to that statement. Sometimes, the most attacking move you can make is to make a strong defensive base. Starting with Jake Lloyd in your starting squad gives you the stable spot to launch at attacking defensive line from. His scoring basement means he’ll never let you down. And his historical scoring ceiling would still make him among the best backs available this year. I can only see three legitimate contenders as the top-scoring defenders across the formats. That’s Aaron Hall, Lachie Whitfield and Jake. He is the perfect starting squad option to build these styles of ceiling defenders.

I’m starting Lloyd in every format this year. And for those going against him, make a plan for how and when you’ll get him in. The reality is by the end of the multi bye rounds; I don’t know one coach who wouldn’t feel better about having him in their side.

DRAFT DECISION

Just twelve months ago, if you wanted to get your hands on Jake Lloyd in many leagues, you were using a top-five pick. In 2022 you won’t need to spend that level of draft capital. He’ll still be someone’s D1, but for the first time in a few seasons, he’s no certainty to the first back off the board. Some coaches will value ceiling, while others favour consistency and some just factor durability as the lead. Neither approach is wrong, just different. What Lloyd offers is strong reliability across all three areas. He’s not a first-round pick, but he won’t last long in the second round.

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#8 Most Relevant | Stephen Coniglio
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Read Time:6 Minute, 4 Second

It was another challenging season for GWS Giants skipper Stephen Coniglio. He battled through injuries but ended the season with his lowest game tally. But, entering into 2022, he’s fit, firing, and with recently added MID/FWD DPP, he;’s primed to be one of the best selections for coaches in 2022.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Stephen Coniglio
Age: 28
Club: GWS Giants
Position: MID/FWD

2021 Highest Score: 
92 Vs Fremantle (AFLFantasy)
92 Vs Sydney (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
192 Vs Gold Coast | AFLFantasy (2019)
207 Vs Gold Coast | SuperCoach (2019)

2021 Average: 
59 (AFLFantasy)
60 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $261,300
AFLFantasy Price: $695,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $402,500

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2021 didn’t go to plan for Stephen Coniglio. Everything went pear-shaped after starting the season in an OK fashion when he injured his ankle. He wasn’t then seen at AFL until four months later. By the time he got back, he had struggled to find full fitness and wasn’t used by Leon Cameron playing heavy forward 50 minutes. So while frustrating in 2021, it was the very cause that has allowed cogs to be a MID/FWD in 2022.

At his best, Cogs is one of the most well-rounded fantasy footballers of the past few seasons. He has no problems winning the ball inside or outside the contest; he applies high intensity, tackles, and pressure. And when he does go forward, his ability to create scoreboard impact is sensational. Over the years, he’s shown he’s a difficult match up both on the lead and at the feet of the Giants tall forwards.

Generally, in these articles, I look back at a players most recent season. And we could do that for Stephen. Even with the injuries and the poor role, he still had multiple games of 80+ including stuff in the ’90s. Instead, everything about last year feels like an outlier when put in contrast to what he’s done over the previous decade of his AFL career.

In 2020 he missed just one game; in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 78 (98.5 adjusted average) and scored one pure ton and eight additional scores of 80+. Remember that in these shorter games, these formats viewed the 80’s as tons. His SuperCoach season returned at an average of 98 from sixteen of the seventeen possible games. He scored nine tons, including 121 & 141.

The year prior, in 2019, from 15 games in AFLFantasy, he had nine scores over the ton, including four over 120. That number may look small. However, when you drill into those 120+ scores, he goes on and converts them into monster scores. 126, 146, 161 and 192 was what he delivered when getting over 120. Over in SuperCoach, he joined the elite company of scoring over 200. He did this in round 11 against the Gold Coast Suns with a 207. Across the season, he had nine tons and four over 130.

The value of Coniglio in SuperCoach and DreamTeam cannot be understated. We’re getting a player who, over the better part of a decade, is a proven 90-110 performer. If luck breaks coaches’ way, he could be the best value premium of the 2022 season for coaches that start with him.

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MY TAKE

Every year I play these ‘classic’ aka salary cap formats, I still get surprised by how people approach these games. One of the biggest things I notice is how quickly a narrative about a player takes off. For example, ‘Stephen Coniglio’ has been injury-prone for years. But in 2020, he played sixteen of a possible seventeen games, and the one he missed, he was dropped. So has he had a few seasons of poor luck? Sure, but just 18 months ago, he’d had zero issues physically.

The news coming out of the club is very promising. Coach Leon Cameron spoke to the on the AFL website stating,’ We haven’t had a game yet but in the mini-match practises we’re having, he’s moving freely, he’s covering the ground (well), he’s fit.’ He went on further and said that Cogs’ confidence is starting. Ultimately, this is everything we could have asked for regarding his health and availability.

Additionally, the coach has mooted his role that he will spend upwards of 80% of his time on the ground as a midfielder. Should that eventuate, I cannot see a score across the formats under 90. That makes him someone you cannot afford to miss in nearly every format.

The conversation in SuperCoach is simple. He’s just over $50,000 more expensive than Jason Horne-Francis. To get a proven performer of multiple 100+ seasons at this price point. Don’t overcomplicate it. Just pick him. In DreamTeam, if you need a stepping stone in the $400k range and have considered options like Matt Rowell, then Cogs needs to be on that same watchlist. In this format, he’s not as obvious a selection as this price point, more because not everyone needs a player at this range in their starting squads.

I’m not a fan of his pricing in AFLFantasy; I understand what they do and why; I just don’t like it. Regardless, he still has some fat on the bone’ regarding cash generation. Priced at the early ’80s, he could give coaches anywhere from ten to twenty points per game of value. And if not, this format may be more accessible than others. He can be used as a pivot point to the breakout option dominating and playing the breakeven game.

Nobody should be looking at Cogs as a premium to hold for the season. He absolutely could do that, but instead, I’d be planning to move him on and then be pleasantly surprised if his scoring and availability combine to create a premium output.

DRAFT DECISION

If you’ve already been involved in a mock draft, you’ll know this to be true. The forward line stacks out quickly and quite poorly. It’s why a player like Cogs needs to be seriously considered. On the Draft Doctors mock draft simulator, he’s currently being taken at an ADP OF 59. That’d make him a great value late F1 or F2 depending on how you like to structure your drafts. I think he’ll be one of the better forwards this year. I’d happily select him in rounds 4-6.

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About Post Author

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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