#9 Most Relevant | Braydon Preuss

Read Time:7 Minute, 11 Second

For years, Braydon Preuss was the understudy ruck. Now at GWS, nobody stands in his way. The big question fantasy footy coaches want to know, is what will he average in 2022?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Braydon Preuss
Age: 26
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Ruck

Career Highest Score:
108 Vs Carlton | AFLFantasy (2019)
140 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2019)

SuperCoach Price: $204,700
AFLFantasy Price: $367,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $255,800

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Over the past few seasons, Braydon Preuss has found himself the ruck bridesmaid behind Max Gawn and Todd Goldstein. However, a 2020 trade to GWS Giants and an injury-riddled season debut crushed his hopes of finally leading the ruck division.

With only 18 AFL games under his belt, coaches might be justified in feeling the need not to get overly excited. And that may be warranted to some degree, but what has been seen is that Preuss is capable of delivering a significant return on investment for potential owners at the elite level.

In 2020 he averaged 50 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam (62 adjusted) and 62 in SuperCoach from three matches. The latter format did include two scores over 80, not bad for a guy who played almost exclusively as a forward.

An entire season earlier, he played seven games, and again the majority of these were spent role sharing with Max Gawn. He ended the year with an average of 56 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 67 in SuperCoach. Indeed, not great, but again he played predominantly forward. Although he did get to solo ruck (due to a late out from Gawn), he had a game featuring 15 possessions, five marks, 44 hitouts and scored a career-high 108 in AFLFantasy and 140 in SuperCoach against Carlton.

When he’s the sole or predominant ruck, he can score more than enough points to justify and reward coaches who select him. Go right back to 2017, and the pattern continues. In round two against the Cats, he was late in for Todd Goldstein, and against the Cats, he scored 105 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 111 in SuperCoach. The week following, Goldy returned, but North allowed him to play the lead ruck role instead. He ended the game with another 105 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and an 87 in SuperCoach.

The VFL stats are insane, but plenty of lower-level players have dominated at second-tier and struggled. The reason for not giving these much or any weighting from me is simple. He has shown at the top level; he can score when given chances; we don’t need secondary levels to display this.

Coaches know how to view Preuss this year accurately to get their heads around. Too many consider him a midrange option, but he’s not. In SuperCoach and DreamTeam, his price point across these formats is a genuine cash cow. What do you need from your cash cows? Weekly availability! Arguably more than anything else. The scoring ability is necessary and super important, but it doesn’t matter if they’re not playing. You need regular games to keep that breakeven moving and generating dollars. If he’s fit, he’s best 22; I have him as the clear #1 ruck. You could build a case that DreamTeam and SuperCoach is the best cash cow to start the season.

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MY TAKE

Let me take you back to when GWS and Gold Coast were first entering the competition. Those years, starting a cash cow in Zac Smith or Jone Giles at R2 didn’t feel risky, nor did we panic that it ‘weakens’ our team structure. Why? Because Giles and Smith had the greatest thing, a cash cow can offer a fantasy coach. Job Security. I’m convinced if fit, Braydon Preuss is the Giants #1 ruckmen.

As helpful as Matt Flynn and Kieran Briggs might have been, they weren’t t the long term solutions for the Giants. How do I know that? Constantly throughout the year, Leon Cameron looked towards Shane Mumford over them both. A 35-year-old who couldn’t run, couldn’t defend and was unable to put more than three or four games together before his body screamed stop! If neither of them could stop the old man from getting games, that’s ominous that they haven’t secured the top ruck mantle.

Why would you consider a stepping stone ruck? Simple! For one of two primary reasons. Firstly, you lack the confidence (or the finance) to invest in a set and forget ruck strategy. Yes, it’s threatening to opponents to see a Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn combination, but it’s also pricey. Ultimately the reason you apply a set and forget strategy is because you believe the decision of who the best rucks are clear and above the rest of the options.

He doesn’t need to compete with the top end premiums to make his selection worthwhile at his price point. But does he have the ability to do so? Historically Braydon has shown he can reach the ton on multiple occasions. But he doesn’t have to be that. The risk with players in this range is that they need to perform early to make the selection worthwhile. That doesn’t mean he has to average 100 over the first month, but he can’t be spluttering along at 50 after four weeks—anything from as low as a high 60’s can be enough.

We all want more, but given his price point, it’s sufficient even on the lower end of the scale. Remember, in SuperCoach; he’s under $4,000 cheaper than Jason Horne-Francis as the max priced rookie. He’s even greater value in DreamTeam.

We need 5-6 weeks of cash generation from these cows. That should allow us to quickly allow us the options to trade in the R2 you believe will average the most points for the remainder of the season. Seeing a cash cow/low-end mid-price selection like Preuss at R2 certainly looks and feels odd, especially for those who historically run a set and forget approach. But don’t narrow in on just that one positional selection. Choosing to run a cash cow at R2 frees up the salary cap to get another premium or midprice option across other lines.

The concern that does some merit is around how’s he recovering from the season missed of footy? Late last year, Preuss did have some surgery, but the Giants GM of Football recently told SEN that ‘he had some minor surgery at the end of the year, and he’s ready and raring to go.’ So that’s positive news that he’s back to full fitness. However, the information gets better as just days ago, Preuss himself told news.com.au that ‘I’ve never been in a position where I felt more comfortable being the No.1 ruck.‘ That’s an important statement.

Barring an injury setback, I will be starting Braydon Preuss in all formats, and I see him as one of the more straightforward selections we can make in 2022.

DRAFT DECISION

Unless you lock away one of the top tiers of ruckman early, you won’t be looking at one until the latter half of your drafts. Guys like Brodie Grundy, Max Gawn, Reilly O’Brien, Sean Darcy and even Rowan Marshall are all going super early in drafts. Braydon Preuss will be around for those wanting to draft a ruck late. And who knows? It could be a genius move. He’s shown. From limited opportunities, he can score well. Personally, I’d happily take him late and handcuff with a Matt Flynn for some security.

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#10 Most Relevant | Tom Mitchell

Read Time:5 Minute, 59 Second

Last year it was the Tom Mitchell of old. But under a new coaching regime, will his best scoring days be behind him or are they still ahead of him?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Mitchell
Age: 28
Club: Hawthorn Hawks
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score:
171 Vs Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
157 Vs Collingwood (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
195 Vs GWS | AFLFantasy (2018)
192 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2018)

2021 Average:
115.5 (AFLFantasy)
117.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $638,100
AFLFantasy Price: $969,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $985,600

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Ever since Tom Mitchell made his debut in 2013 at Sydney, we got a glimpse at his fantasy pedigree. That season he averaged 90in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 86 in SuperCoach. Since then, he’s been one of the most prolific fantasy players of the modern era. By the time his AFL career comes to a close, he’ll be remembered just as fondly as Gary Ablett, Dane Swan and Tom Rockliff as one of the greats of this game.

In 2021 we saw the full reemergence of ‘Titch’ back to his former glory as a fantasy footballer and a dominant midfielder. Last year in the league, he ranked first for handballs, disposals, effective disposals and uncontested possessions per game. He’s not only one of the most dominant ball-winning midfielders, but he’s also one of the most nerve-racking players to come up against in a league match if he’s unique against you.

His AFLFantasy season was brilliant in totality but spectacular when you look into the more refined timing. Over the year, he scored nineteen tons, ten of them above 120 and five over 130. He had just three scores under 100 all year and nothing dropping below 71. Before the Hawks bye round, he averaged 105.1. However, in the final eleven games of the year, he averaged 126 and didn’t let his scores fall below 105. He’s ranked fifth overall for averages and points, with only Jack Steele, Touk Miller, Jarryd Lyons and Jack Macrae.

This scoring pattern is similar in SuperCoach. He ranked eighth for total points and ninth for averages last year. It consisted of seventeen tons; nine were over 120, eight over 130 and a season-high score of 171. Entering into the Hawks round twelve byes, he’d scored just six tons and was going at an average of 105. From round thirteen onwards, he averaged 128.6, and his lowest score was 110.

What has got coaches so excited is that these final eleven games of the year reflect what he did back in 2018, where he averaged 129 across the formats and set fantasy footy records. Since 2015 he’s averaged between 106-129 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 103-129 in SuperCoach. So from a visual perspective, it looks like this.

Can he get back to this 2018 scoring for 2022? He did for 50% of the year just gone. Because if he can climb back anywhere near that, not only is he ten points per game of value, he’ll also end up as the top-scoring option in every format comfortably.

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MY TAKE

You don’t have to be among the best fantasy football coaches to recognise that Tom Mitchell’s scoring ability across formats is unrivalled. For multiple years and at clubs, he’s shown just how destructive a player he can be. When we consider fantasy footballers, they can destroy your season if you don’t own them. ‘Titch’ is a certainty in that category. It’s for that very reason that coaches will agonise right up until around one about whether or not they start him in their side. Getting on the wrong side of the equation will be a season ruining move. While being on the right side will set you up for immediate success.

For the first time since joining the Hawks, Hawthorn has some serious uncertainties. Both in the cattle used and the clubs game style. A team’s style is refined under any new coach, and some players are used in different ways. But, at the same time, others find favour in the eyes of a new coach and get opportunities that weren’t previously afforded to them.

Does the midfield mix at Hawthorn get drastically turned over? And to what extent? Under Sam Mitchell, will it be a full blooding of the kids like Jai Newcombe, James Worpel, Josh Ward, Finn Maginness and Connor MacDonald? If that’s the case scoring regression for Titch is almost imminent.

Will Tom Mitchell still be allowed to roam and get plenty of uncontested ball? Or does the Hawks adjust the style of play and look for a more direct avenue to ball movement? Sadly, with only one practice match and one community series clash, we’ll get limited games against the opposition to understand better. Furthermore, teams in these games often don’t apply the same defensive pressure and emphasis. So even with what we do get to see, it might be an entree to what the season proper holds.

I have zero doubts that his run of triple-figure averages will cease; even with a proposed regression, he still will get enough of the pill to be a fantasy premium. I’m also convinced that he will still be a primary piece in the midfield. In reality, it’s where he’s at his best, and it’s in Hawthorn’s best interest to allow him to play there. If you purchase him at his starting price, he must average 115-120 for the season to be a selection worth taking early on?

What’s his upside? He goes back to being the best scoring player in the game. What’s the downside? He slides back to a 110 averaging player. That’s not much of a downside, If I’m being honest. I’m starting in DreamTeam, considering starting in AFLFantasy and upgrading target in SuperCoach.

DRAFT DECISION

The format you draft in might not alter his M1 status, but it might determine where you could select him on draft day. For example, in AFLFantasy scoring drafts, I forecast Tom Mitchell will be selected inside the first handful of selections. In SuperCoach leagues, he could find himself sliding to as late as an early second-round pick, but he is still someone I see as a popular first-round pick, even if it’s later in the opening round.

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#11 Most Relevant | Tim Taranto

Read Time:5 Minute, 59 Second

One of the most notable new additions was Tim Taranto into the forward line when champion data announced the new positions. He was seen as someone you had to own from day one. Now the conversation is evolving. Is he still the must start player we all expected?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tim Taranto
Age: 24
Club: GWS Giants
Position: MID/FWD

2021 Highest Score:
145 Vs Carlton (AFLFantasy)
139 Vs Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
156 Vs North Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2019)
144 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2019)

2021 Average:
107.7 (AFLFantasy)
97.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $529,700
AFLFantasy Price: $904,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $919,000

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It’s rare that we consider relevant in every season in fantasy football circles across your entire AFL career. But, to date, you can argue Tim Taranto is certainly delivering on that so far. He was a handy rookie in his debut season in 2017, but it was 2018 when he became a breakout star as a MID/FWD. That year he averaged 90.9 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 88.7 in SuperCoach.

What makes ‘TT’ so fantasy relevant is he’s a prolific ball winner, contested ball winner and clearance beast. He also applies high defensive pressure through powerful tackles, and his workrate gets him into space to be an option for the outlet kicks. In short, he’s got one of the most complete fantasy games going around. If he tidied up some of his disposal efficiency he’d have a case for being one of the best fantasy players of the current era.

Last year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 107.7. That places him as the highest averaging forward and a clear top points performer. He scored fourteen tons, seven of them were above 120, and in an additional five games, he scored 90 or above. That’s him scoring 90+ in 86% of matches. By the closing of the year, he’s ranked 15th for total points. That’s more points than Darcy Parish, Jack Crisp, Cam Guthrie and my boy Josh Kelly.

For SuperCoach, his year returned twelve tons, three of the. over 120 and an additional four scores over 90. Positively, one of his most significant scores came when he played a 100% forward role and scored a 130+ against the Tigers.

As strong as the season was in totality, he was a more dominant performer both the bye than after it. Check out this graphic that helps unpack more of the story.

In isolation, those post-bye numbers are acceptable. Not great, but okay. However, it’s the pre bye numbers that has coaches excited. To get genuine topline premium midfielder scores out of the forward division is a Godsend.

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MY TAKE

When talking about Tim Taranto, the elephant in the room is regarding the late-season role change in 2021. In rounds 19, 20 and 22, the Giants moved Tim out of his natural environment as a midfielder to cover Toby Greene inside forward 50. From a fantasy footy perspective, it was a total disaster, but it worked in a pure footy sense.

And herein lies the significant problem; Taranto did such a great job at being a damaging forward presence that as the Giants look to cover the suspended Greene long term, he does become a genuine candidate. Recently, Leon Cameron told news.com.au that ‘he’s so flexible, Tim. He hits the scoreboard, but, equally, he is just as powerful in the midfield, so sometimes you’re robbing Peter to pay Paul’. It’s not damning him to the forward line, but it does leave the door ajar. Furthermore, forward Brent Daniels suffered a fracture to the Lisfranc joint in his foot during pre-season training. This just further muddies already murky water.

Toby Greene is due to return to the side in round six. This is off the back of his suspension for touching an umpire. Given how successfully Taranto covered for him last year and the possible lack of cover for Daniels, it’s rightly so that fantasy coaches have some serious reservations about starting with him.

As daunting as it may sound, it was only three games last year where Taranto was significantly out of the midfield. Beyond rounds 19, 20 & 22, he held a strong variation of centre bounce attendances. As a pure inside midfielder without these CBA’s, his scoring does nosedive. In these three rounds, he attended 11%, 7% and 0% CBA’s and had an average of 69.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 80.3 in SuperCoach. If you remove these three matches, his average rebounds drastically to 100 in SuperCoach and 113.78 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. The data makes the equation very clear and very simple.

I’m not starting with Taranto in any format. I’m prepared to take him on and cop whatever potential big scores he might deliver over the first few weeks. Why? Indeed because of the uncertainty of role. But also because of the player pricing structure. At the start of the season, the magic number that helps determine a players pricing is at its highest point, meaning if upper-priced premiums don’t outperform their average by a solid margin, they’ll still regress in price. So even if he goes at his average of 108 in AFLFantasy and 98 in SuperCoach, he’s still losing dollars. This will be even more evident if he starts slowly due to a heavy forward role.

Please make no mistake; I’m not prepared to take him on for the full 22 games. I want him on my finished side. So rather than start, I’ll watch with a keen eye on a combination of his breakeven and the return of Toby Greene. That will likely inform the timing of when I jump on Taranto in 2022.

DRAFT DECISION

Forwards that have the proven ability to match it with the best midfielders don’t last long on draft day. Tim Taranto won’t last long on draft day, even with some role speculation. In AFLFantasy scoring formats, he’s being picked at an ADP of 9 on the Draft Doctors Mock draft simulator. And that feels about as late as you’ll get him. IF you want him, it’s a mid-late first-round selection. While in SuperCoach, he’s a second-round pick.

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#12 Most Relevant | Max Gawn

Read Time:7 Minute, 45 Second

Entering 2021, Max Gawn was coming off the back of a sensational season. He was viewed as the must-have player in every starting squad. The conversation has turned marginally this preseason, with many still unsure about what his season will hold. For me, Gawn is still one of the most relevant players in 2022.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Max Gawn
Age: 30
Club: Melbourne Demons
Position: Ruck

2021 Highest Score:
145 Vs Geelong (AFLFantasy)
172 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
154 Vs North Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2019)
212 Vs North Melbourne | SuperCoach (2019)

2021 Average:
108.5 (AFLFantasy)
120.7 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $657,400
AFLFantasy Price: $911,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $925,900

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Even if it wasn’t the best fantasy football season for Max Gawn, it’s safe to say that it’s a year that he and the Demons faithful will never forget. The reigning premiership captain was superb in 2021, and his stats, along with his premiership medallion, are proof of this. He averaged a career-high 18.4 possessions and marks 5.2. While his hitouts declined as the year went on, that’s less of the ‘Luke Jackson’ effect.

From his 22 games last year, Gawn delivered fifteen AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons, five of them over 120 and four over 130. To go with his scoring frequency of tons is one of the best scoring basements in the game, all year, he had just three matches that he failed to go 90 or higher. By the end of the year, he was the clear ruck top ruck by average and total points. And while he wasn’t as dominant in this format as prior seasons, he ended the season ranked twelfth for overall points and sixteenth by averages. Not a bad season for a guy that many considered a ‘good’ but ‘not great’ fantasy season.

Historically big Max has always been a better SuperCoach performer, and he didn’t disappoint coaches during the year. He scored 18 tons; that’s 81% of games last year he hit the triple figures. Of those tons, eleven were over 120, four higher than 140 and an insane three were 159+. His strong scoring basement was on display in this format too. He had just one score below 90 all year. He ended the year as the best ruckmen by averages and by points, but he ranked fourth for total points fifth for averages, including all positions.

In his 2020 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam season, he averaged 98.9 (123 adjusted) for the season. It included 7 tons, 2 of which were over 120 and an additional five scores between 80 and 99. Due to the shorter quarters, scores of 80 were considered an equivalent 100 of previous seasons. Meaning 12 of his 14 games met that scoring threshold.

Last season in that format, he averaged a career-high of 139.9. To put that in perspective, hall of fame SuperCoach players Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury has never averaged over 130; Tom Rockliff’s revered 2014 was an average of 131. Only Gary Ablett has a higher historical SuperCoach average than him. 2020 consisted of 12 tons, 11 of them over 120, 7 over in 150 and his lowest score of the year was 87. He ranked first across the league by average and is ranked 17 points per game ahead of Jack Steele, ranked third. Despite missing three games, he still ranked 9th for overall SuperCoach points.

To go with this high scoring basement and the nearly unmatched ceiling in the rucks is historical durability. Even though he missed three games this season with a PCL, he’s missed just four games over the last four seasons. Given what we’ll need to pay to get him, you want some security that he’ll play. Based on his recent history, you can have confidence in his availability.

Since 2015/2016, Max Gawn has been a staple of our fantasy sides, and some may look for some reasons to discount considering him (which we’ll address). But one thing is for sure; you’d sleep easier at night having him in your side at some stage during the year. So even if you choose to have him as an upgrade target, it’d take a brave (maybe even crazy) coach to rule out Gawn in 2022 altogether.

MY TAKE

The familiar story I hear in the preseason I hear surrounding Max Gawn is that he’ll regress on the back of Luke Jackson, picking up more centre bounce moments as he continues his strong progression. While that might be the case, I am baffled to see some suggestions that means Gawn falls so far back to the pack that he’s not a supreme option.

Both statistically snd practically, the trend is already happening that Jackson will keep picking up more ruck minutes. But I do not believe it will be as significant as some have suggested. I’ve seen some suggest a 50/50 split or worse, Jackson takes the lead ruck role, and Gawn transitions more as the second. in two seasons times; that’s perhaps the case, but not now. Gawn is the best ruckman in the league. He has four consecutive All Australian honours, including the reigning skipper as proof.

I don’t doubt that Jackson will continue his emergence. But the split trend will only move from a 75/25 split to a maximum 65/35 if both parties are fit. This split percentage was on show during the Demons successful finals run.

One new factor to consider is that with multiple midseason DPP’s now happening in all formats, we might see significant changes to the trading game. Historically, we’ve had AFLFantasy and champion data both go on record to say that when a player has 35% in a secondary role, that’s enough to consider the DPP addition. Especially if that position happens when a centre bounce is underway right now, it might look a longshot. Still, if the Jackson percentage does push up to the AFL Finals levels or higher, then it’s a possibility.

I believe the ruck division is the most simple of all the lines to choose from. It’s a premium ruck, in my opinion, that’s one of Gawn or Grundy. You’ll learn later through the 50 who I think is the right choice, but I think a one premium ruck set-up is the right play across formats. I cannot endorse a ‘set & forget’ ruck structure this year. Historically, the only reason for doing that is that the best rucks are so far, and you lock them in above the others.

This isn’t the case in 2022. We’ve already looked at viable candidates that could push the top two through this 50 most relevant series like Sean Darcy & even a Reilly O’Brien. This, combined with the fact we’ve got some crazy value R2 & R3 options. It makes the decision clear as day for me.

It’s here we need to split the formats into two distinct conversations. For SuperCoach, it’s different. There, his best is just as good as anyone in the competition and last year only further enhanced that. He can be a starting squad consideration. His midfield beats of Clayton Oliver & Christian Petracca allow him to have the rare combination of hitouts to advantage, contested possessions and score involvements. I won’t start with Max, but I will undoubtedly target him as my second premium ruck option as a midseason trade target.

While AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, I still view him as a great option, but the decrease in scoring ceiling is a concern. Last year he had rive scores over 120. However, the combination of fewer hitouts for all rucks competition wide due to a stoppage decreases designed by the AFL’s’ stand’ rule and the arrival of Luke Jackson has cut his top-end of scores off. That’s why he’s an upgrade target in these formats and not a starter.

DRAFT DECISION

If you hope to own Max Gawn this season in drafts, you’d previously need one of the first picks in the draft. However, depending on the format you play, he could go the latest he has on draft day in the past few seasons. In SuperCoach, he’s still going to get picked in the early to middle range of the first round. While in AFLFantasy scoring, his range could be from the late first into the mid-second round.

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#13 Most Relevant | Lachie Whitfield

Read Time:7 Minute, 29 Second

For the past few seasons, Lachie Whitfield has displayed some of the best fantasy football ceilings of anyone to play. Entering into 2022, he’s got some question marks surrounding his durability, but at his price point, does the potential reward outweigh any possible risk?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Lachie Whitfield
Age: 27
Club: GWS Giants
Position: MID/DEF

2021 Highest Score:
132 Vs Essendon (AFLFantasy)
146 Vs Essendon (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
190 Vs Carlton | AFLFantasy (2019)
170 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2019)

2021 Average:
94.8 (AFLFantasy)
92.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $502,600
AFLFantasy Price: $795,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $808,300

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Over the past four seasons, Lachie Whitfield has been available as a midfielder, defender & forward. With a role switch back to the defensive line, we again have the sublimely skilful player as a defender/midfield in 2022. In this time, Lachie’s been one of the most enjoyable players to own in that time, simply because he has the scoring capacity to match it with the best of the best fantasy footballers.

From his gut running to the execution of his excellent skills, Whitfield knows how to deliver fantasy scores.

Despite a delayed start to the season due to a freak liver injury in the preseason, he made his way back against the Crows in round seven and didn’t look like he’d missed a step. That day he picked up thirty possessions, eight marks and posted a lazy 110 in AFLFantasy and 83 in SuperCoach in their 67 points slaughtering of the Adelaide Football Club.

Over the 2021 season, he scored seven AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons, with three over 120. He averaged 94.8 and is currently ranked eighth by averages of all defenders. In SuperCoach, he averaged 92.3, which consisted of six tons, three of them over 120, including a season-high 146. His scoring dip fell below 70 in one match that he played the game out all year.

I make that distinction because, in round 17, he suffered an early concussion against the Gold Coast Suns, ruling him out not just for the remainder of the match but also in the following weeks. Nobody wants to see an injury at all, let alone in games, but they do play a natural role in downgrading a player’s actual averages. If we were to remove this match in which he played just 29% time on the ground, his AFLFantasy average for the season is 99.5, while it’s 96.6 in SuperCoach. Those averages would place him fourth in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and thirteenth in SuperCoach.

Much has been made about the injury history of Whitfield, but outside of a freak preseason injury with his liver and one concussion, he’s had a regular few seasons on the injury front. He played every one of the 17 games in 2020. This is the first time he hasn’t missed a game since his suspension shortened 2017. In 2020 he ranked 6th for total uncontested possessions, 9th for marks, 15th for effective disposals and 20th for total disposals. These numbers would’ve been even higher had it not been for the 1st quarter concussion.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he averaged 85.8 (107 adjusted), including six pure tons and an additional five scores between 80 and 99. In SuperCoach, he averaged 104, which had 10 tons, 5 of these were over 120 and one under 83. Not surprisingly, this game was his concussion affected game

Rarely does a top-line premium offer some value on their starting price, but Whitfield does. Removing that early concussion affected game where he took the hit in the opening minutes, he would have averaged 90 (113 adjusted) in AFLFantasy and 110 in SuperCoach. The ten games following show that he’s much closer to these averages. Between 4-14, he averaged 96 AFLFantasy (120 adjusted) and 114 in SuperCoach.

I could go through his 2019 and point out the multiple 150+ scores, but in honesty, that shouldn’t be required. He’s got a proven pedigree of scoring. The departure of Rory Laird and Callum Mills in our backlines means the conversation for the best defender available is again up for discussion. Many see Aaron Hall as the obvious option, and I wrote about him earlier in the 50 most relevant here. As great as he might be, I don’t see a world where he can match it, let alone beat Whitfield based on his historical performance. Lachie has the proven scoring capacity to be the best defender in 2022 and be right in the conversation as the best fantasy performer of the season, period.

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MY TAKE

One thing that cannot be questioned beyond Lachie Whitfield’s evident fantasy footy chops is his athletic capacity. A combination of that and his high footy IQ mean that Whitfield often knows where to position himself and get the ball in open space. From there, he uses his elite kicking skills to set up a Giants forward assault.

The beauty of fantasy football is that everyone has different strategies and approaches to playing the game. Some love to be bold and take the game on with high risk/reward moves. Other coaches are more risk-averse and look to play the game by minimising any risk at all from their team. It’s why some will see the inherent value of Whitfield and ride every fantastic week that he can bring. In contrast, another select group will see an incremental build of injuries over time and decide to avoid any potential midseason issue by steering clear of him entirely.

In my opinion, he’s one of only a few players who I think can compete for the mantle as the top defender in 2022. It’s why for me, he’s inside the top 15. A fit and firing Lachie is not someone I want to go against for some weeks, let alone all season. He’s got the ceiling and history to take a season away from you quickly. It’s why for me, I’ll be looking to own Whitfield for as long as possible in the season.

When I’m starting premiums in my starting squad, I’m looking for multiple vital elements. One of them is the scoring ceiling. Another is the frequency of high conversion. Why do this matter? Because when a player (like Whitfield) has both, they can very quickly take a season away from you with high scoring consistency.

Success in the ‘classic’ formats is ultimate due to the trading game and moves you make during a season. I say that because I believe you cannot win first place based on a brilliant starting squad. Ask anyone that’s won the cash or cars over the past few years; while they’ll happily admit they did get a lot right in their starting squad, it wasn’t faultless. While you might not win the prize in your starting squad, you certainly can lose it. You do this by overcomplicating selections that are clear as day as the right choice but end up talking yourself into missing out on him.

Currently, 45.7% of AFLFantasy and 41% of SuperCoach players own Whitfield. That’s a high enough percentage that if you are on him and he does get injured early, you won’t be disadvantaged by using a forced trade. Conversely, if you go against him and he pops a hot streak of scoring, that percentage is so significant he might be the reason your fantasy year is gone before the mid-year byes hit.

In every format, I’m starting Lachie Whitfield. There is no reason I can see why you should opt out of having him. It’s one of the most simple selections of the year. Just pick him!

DRAFT DECISION

Lachie Whitfield will be a coaches D1, but where he goes on draft day in part will be linked to when your draft happens. Enough injury concerns and topline other options mean he should slide into the first part of the second round.

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#14 Most Relevant | Adam Treloar

Read Time:7 Minute, 51 Second

It was a frustrating season for Adam Treloar in his first year as a Western Bulldog. Multiple injuries and a horrific Grand Final loss is not the way he’d hoped his season would’ve panned out. But, for us, fantasy coaches, one thing has gone his way in the offseason with Champion Data allocating him MID/FWD. Does that have him in your starting squad considerations? It should!

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Adam Treloar
Age: 28
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: MID/FWD

2021 Highest Score:
127 Vs Brisbane (AFLFantasy)
123 Vs Port Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
159 Vs Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2014)
177 Vs Gold Coast | SuperCoach (2019)

2021 Average:
87.1 (AFLFantasy)
88.7 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $483,200
AFLFantasy Price: $731,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $743,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It’s safe to say the past 18 months on the football field; not a lot has gone the way Adam Treloar would’ve wanted. From being ‘pushed out’ of Collingwood through to multiple injuries and another heartbreaking Grand Final defeat. He battled a calf injury during the preseason and was ‘touch and go’ to play in round one. However, by the time we started to see him deliver the consistent high-performance standards that we’ve become accustomed to, he was sadly then stalled again through injury, but this time an ankle syndesmosis that kept him out of three months of footy.

There were plenty of glimpses in his thirteen home and away games that the at the Bulldogs, he’s going to be a commanding presence. With the likes of Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore and Jackson Macrae in the midfield, it allowed him to fly under the radar and create damaging moments around the ground that both Pies and Giants fans beforehand loved him for. His bursting speed, coupled with his ability to win multitudes on inside and outside footy, makes him a scary prospect in any midfield, let alone one as stacked as the Doggies.

Last year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored six tons, including a season-high 127. He had an additional two games where he scored 85 or higher. In isolation, it doesn’t look like a great season. But data without context is dangerous. He had a six-game stretch between rounds 3-8, where he averaged 109. What happened here? In short, a primary central bounce midfield rotation. But I’ll address that more shortly. Even with an injury impacted score in round 10 (the ankle syndesmosis) and some heavy forward minutes upon his return, he’s still ranked as the sixth-best forward available by averages.

For his year in SuperCoach, he scored five tons and had five additional scores over 80. He also had an elite six-game stretch of scoring between rounds 2-7, averaging 108. Currently, he’s ranked 11th for Averages among all SuperCoach forwards, but I can only see injury as the reason he doesn’t move into the top ten by seasons end.

There is no shortage of fantasy football resources these days. Nearly a decade ago, there was a handful, whereas now it seems everyone knows someone with a podcast. I have no issues with that and think it creates a higher engagement and excitement in the community. However, a trend that can quickly happen when giving out ‘advice’ is that you don’t help people learn the process, mindsets, and data trends. Here at the Coaches Panel, we are committed to helping grow you as a coach by understanding how to ‘fish for yourself’ from a fantasy perspective.

Treloar provides you with an opportunity to see how data, when applied rightly, can help you understand whether or not certain players or picks are the right moves for you. For example, two key things happened last year when Adam attended a minimum of 20% of centre bounces. He had over 20 possessions, and he scored in all formats. In fact, in the seven games last year, he had 20% or higher CBA’s he averaged 99. With scoring like that, he does become a genuine top five forward candidate for the season. Here’s the graph below to help you see this.

Round	Possessions	AFLFantasy	SuperCoach	CBA %
1	18	59	63	10%
2	25	76	95	28%
3	27	106	108	68%
4	29	127	118	64%
5	26	104	117	43%
6	35	115	113	52%
7	27	100	97	50%
8	23	103	87	64%
9	26	85	83	32%
10	14	37	45	17%
21	22	90	76	19%
22	15	56	72	11%
23	20	75	80	30%

If I wanted to, I could go much deeper into the scoring history of Aadam at both the Pies and Giants. The constant 103-113 averages from 2014-2020 are partially irrelevant in the new team. However, don’t the scoring of above. When he was playing that midfield lead role, he scored the same as what he’d done in both of those two clubs.

The reality is that Adam Treloar, despite being one of the highest averaging forwards, still provides coaches with value. This is based on two primary reasons. One due to heavy forward fifty presence role coming back off the ankle injury that saw him miss three months. The other was in the game when the injury happened. Getting value built at this high end is rare, and something coaches should seriously consider making the most of.

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MY TAKE

There are two big question marks when it comes to selecting Adam Treloar. The first is around the Bulldogs midfield mix, while the other is about a concerning trend of injuries. However, the answer regarding both feels the same for me. With Treloar, you start him and bank the points and games he gives, or you avoid for the season. The ‘risks’ that he does hold won’t change based on the season variables.

The first is the role. Did he play forward late last year out of design or necessity? The weight of data would suggest that necessity makes the most sense. Treloar’s most impact is as a damaging endurance athlete, not forward. Bailey Smith is excellent as a high half-forward, while Cody Weightman will be a headache for oppositions for the next decade. His need isn’t for skill; the role was by force to get game time into him. The Bulldogs were desperate to get him up towards full fitness come finals.

I hear the argument that the Bulldogs do flip the magnets around a lot. But with time, they do not play people out of position that ultimately doesn’t serve that role and play to their team’s strengths. Look at Bailey Dale and Caleb Daniel; both have reinvented themselves in new roles. Treloar has shown a crafty knack at kicking goals over his career, but his true strength is in the midfield. As an aside, even when midfielders have rested forward the Dogs, the high possession game style still keeps them scoring. So the proposed forward heavy role doesn’t concern me,

The second is the injury concerns. Last year alone, ankle and calf injuries ruled him out of time. Previously it’s been hamstrings and other soft tissue injuries. For a player of Adam’s growing injury history, I’d suggest that you not upgrade to them during the season if you don’t start with him. The reason being is with every game played, the ‘risk’ of that potential injury occurring only increases with every game played. Of course, you can upgrade to him if you wish, but know that world you’re getting yourself into.

Ever since SuperCoach and DreamTeam expanded into the DPP additions like AFLFantasy, much has been made on the best starting premium forwards and defenders. The consensus is to create some margin for potential big inclusions; for example, my boy Josh Kelly gained DPP in round six and was a must-have. I agree with the premise to hold some space for a DPP gain, but potentially we’ve already got one sitting in our forwards with Adam Treloar. On any given matchup, he’s capable of being a 110+ performer. So maybe the big ‘in’ to the forwards is already under our noses?

If nothing else, you need to have him on your preseason watchlist. For me, I’ve gone one better in some formats and locked him into my starting squad.

DRAFT DECISION

Adam Treloar could be the best forward in the game by the end of the season. However, I think if you went for him in the second round, you’re paying overs, while if you’re hoping he slides to the fourth or fifth rounds, you’ll be left empty-handed. In AFLFantasy scoring formats, round three feels the suitable space to pounce, while you might get lucky in the fourth round in SuperCoach format.

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#15 Most Relevant | Touk Miller

Read Time:7 Minute, 18 Second

The emergence of Touk Miller from fantasy football premium to the uber elite in 2021 was something nobody predicted. Instead, the future Suns skipper was simply sublime. Although many may doubt the ability to back up the scoring, the signs are ominous if you want to beat against him.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Touk Miller
Age: 25
Club: Gold Coast Suns
Position: Midfielder

2021 Highest Score:
160 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy)
155 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
160 Vs Hawthorn | AFLFantasy (2021)
155 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2021)

2021 Average:
122.1 (AFLFantasy)
124.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $577,800
AFLFantasy Price: $1,002,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $1,041,500

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Where the heck did that season come from? Touk Miller was simply sensaational in 2021. Longtime fans of The Coaches Panel will be familiar that Kane and I have been big-time advocates of ‘Touk Touk.’ So much so that getting him onto one of our podcasts several years ago became one of the highlights of the season. But outside of the few seasons where he held MID/FWD status and was pumping out high 80’s averages, Miller had rarely featured in any classic sides, and his relevance was relegated to draft and daily fantasy formats.

What makes him such a prolific scorer is his ability to score regardless of the variables around him is that he scores through multiple avenues. He’s ranked third in the league for tackles per game. That speaks to his high-end defensive abilities. He’s fifth for disposals and effective disposals, resulting in always having the ball. While he’s ranked sixth for uncontested and eighteenth for uncontested possessions. That means Miller uses his elite work rate to get into open spaces while also doing the hard stuff to win the ball himself. In short, Miller is one of the most rounded midfielders.

I don’t know what odds you would have got for Touk Miller to be the highest averaging player in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam in 2021, but you probably could have retired off the back of it. In addition, to be ranked first for averages, he’s third for total points. Not bad for a guy that missed a match. He scored seventeen tons; thirteen of these were above 12o while a monster six were 0ver 140.

To go with this high ceiling frequency is a strong score floor. He had just one match below 80 all season, which was in round one. So arguably, the best time to own him was between rounds 11-12, where he scored ten consecutive tons and averaged a mouth-watering 133 in that period.

His SuperCoach season was arguably even better. He scored eighteen tons from his twenty-one matches; an insane thirteen of these were above 120, ten over 130 and seven scores of 140+. He indeed was one of the most dependable VC/C options in 2021. He had sixteen consecutive tons to end the year and was ranked sixth for total points. Only Jack Macrae and Jack Steele had higher averages than Touk in 2021.

In his ten matches before the bye, he averaged 117 across the formats, while post-bye, he averaged 126 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and a monster 130 in SuperCoach. So any argument that suggests he’s priced at a ‘peak.’ He might not have the extraordinary monster games like a Macrae, Steele or my boy Kelly. Still, his frequency of converting scores over 120+ in AFLFantasy and 130+ in SuperCoach is insane. What further highlights this is that he scored triple figures across the formats; his average is 131. That’s as good as you get across the game formats.

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MY TAKE

One of the hardest players to rank in the preseason for me is Touk Miller. Not because he cannot and will not score well, but rather to forecast if he’s the top-end premium to take on or the one you’ve got to go ‘all in on’ and start. So what coaches are pondering is, was 2021 a picture of a new reality or just the unicorn season?

So what was the real cause of his growth? It came off the back of his elite endurance and high work rate. As a result, his scoring boost came in uncontested possessions and tackles. This workrate isn’t going anywhere. I’ve been lucky enough to have a little to do with Touk in the media. Outside of being an outstanding human being, what has been evident to me in my dealings with him was his insatiable appetite to get better. If the causation of the scoring bump was linked to his ability to work hard both ways, good like building a compelling case that he won’t score well in 2022.

The reality is, nobody should or can suggest that his scoring will drop off the cliff and regress to the 100-105 of his 2020 season. However, considering him as a starter, the challenging piece can be backed up with another 120 seasons. Historically, the trend is complex and rare. Impossible, no. But challenging. If he doesn’t average 120+ for the year and starts strong, coaches will have overpaid for him while others might be grabbing a significant bargain.

The question remains, though, what can we expect going forward for him and the entire Suns midfield unit. For me, everything fell Miller’s way this previous year. Matt Rowell was severely limited due to injury, while Lachie Weller and Hugh Greenwood missed time. Gold Coast does have a mightly talented list, but it’s also a young and inexperienced list. With some of these players returning from injury and more high-quality draftees emerging, I think that does eat away at Miller’s ceiling a bit.

Does the departure of Greenwood help or hurt? Hugh is a defensive beast, and his defensive pressure often allows other midfielders to flourish offensively. We saw this at Adelaide in 2017-2018 and have seen it at the Suns. Just watch him now do the same for Jy Simpkin. But does Hugh out force Touk to take on the defensive leadership in the midfield? What’s clear about him is he’s one of the most selfless leaders I’ve ever seen at a club. He’s bought un heart and soul at the footy club, and his deep desire is to elevate them to make a debut finals campgain.

As good as a footballer as he is, the ultimate rise of the club will come off the back of the emergence of Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson, Sam Flander, Elijah Hollands and others living up to their potential. For that to happen, space will need to be created. How much space will Touk create? Or is he the leader that paves the way over the next 12-24 months?

Currently shy of 10% of AFLFantasy and 14% of SuperCoach own him. Making him relatively unique given what his recent scoring history is. However, the percentages data feels too heavy for me to have confidence in starting with him. I see a regression, but I still have him in the 110-115 range. That should still be more than good enough to be a top-eight midfielder, but if my prediction is correct (regarding the Suns evolution), then starting him would be a mistake, however, on the flipside. If he doesn’t regress and starts the year the way he ended last year, going at 130. Good luck ever having enough cash generation to afford him.

DRAFT DECISION

Touk Miller is a clear first round selection in any draft format. Some might even advocate for him being the first player off the draft board. For me, that’s too early, but around picks four to eight, he’d have to be right in consideration.

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#16 Most Relevant | Matt Crouch

Read Time:6 Minute, 45 Second

Over the past few seasons, Matt Crouch has been a staple premium in many coaches fantasy football sides. Coming off the back of a season-ending groin injury, he’s now significantly underpriced his potential. But is he entirely fit and firing ahead of round one?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Matt Crouch
Age: 26
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Midfield

Career Highest Score:
151 Vs West Coast| AFLFantasy (2019)
162 Vs Hawthorn | SuperCoach (2020)

SuperCoach Price: $482,000
AFLFantasy Price: $649,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $602,900

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

You don’t usually assume that with Matt Crouch when you say injury and Crouch. But in 2021, the curse of the older brother injury luck finally hit Matt resulting in him not playing at all in 2021. This is sad news for Matt, Crows fans and, at the time, fantasy coaches. However, the silver lining is he’s been awarded the maximum discount available and is now priced the cheapest he’s been for years.

If you’ve played fantasy footy for the better part of the last six or seven years, you’re familiar with Matt and his fantasy footy pedigree. Even as a junior, he dominated the possession tally, and once he got to the AFL was always viewed as someone who’d be a certain midfield premium. Crouch is an intelligent player who uses his high IQ and vision to set up his teammates into space. But it’s his midfield strength and ability to win every contest that makes him one of the most reliable ball winners. From 2017 to 2019, he averaged 33, 32 & 33 disposals per game and boasted 100+ averages across AFLFantasy and SuperCoach.

His 2020 season was filled with ups downs. And even a week, he didn’t play after being dropped in round four. Despite this, he ended the year as one of the most dominant fantasy midfielders across all formats.

He ended the year averaging 26 possessions, almost three marks and a career-high 4.6 tackles per game. Impressive given the decreased length of quarters. Across the league per game, he ranked 1st for handballs, 5th for disposals, 6th for uncontested possessions and 7th for effective disposals.

Before getting dropped in round four, Crouch averaged 64.3 (80 adjusted) in AFLFantasy and had a top score of 72. When he returned in round five, he scored 4 tons, four additional scores over 90, 2 over 80 and had the lowest score of 75. In these final 13 matches, he averaged 93.9 (adjusted 117) in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. By seasons end, Matt averaged 88.3 (adjusted 110), ranked 19th for total points scored (remember that’s with him missing a game) and ranked 14th for averages.

In SuperCoach over the first three weeks, he was averaging 88. However, over the final 13 games, he averaged 115, including 10 tons, five of them over 120 and one was a career-high 162. After the home and away season, he ended the year averaging 110 and having just two scores under 90 all year.

It wasn’t just his fantasy output that took a dramatic turn, but also his workrate off the ball and defensive efforts. In his first 102 games of AFL, only in two matches, he returned a tackle count of 10 tackles or more. However, in two of his final five games this year, he handed out 12 tackles in one game and 14 tackles in another. Easily the two highest of his career.

Just twelve months ago, many, especially in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam circles, had Matt locked in as a certainty for a top ten midfielder. With a substantial discount across all formats due to missing the 2021 season. Matt Crouch looms as one of the most extraordinary value selections of the recent seasons.

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MY TAKE

There are two types of value in fantasy football. First, there’s the value that’s based on potential projection. It might be based on a role change within the side, a hoped natural progression, or some other variance that is caused for the forecasted upside. The other type of value is based on proven performances, yet circumstances such as an injury have caused them to be valued at a specific range of price points. With Matt Crouch, we’re not forecasting or hoping for scoring trends to bump. However, his scoring pedigree is beyond reproach. He’s one of the best points per minute players of recent times.

His role is also unquestioned. Matt is a pure first touch style midfielder. He cannot, does not and will not play any role for the Crows other than as a midfielder. However, his clearance work is exceptional, and in 2020, he showed that ability and desired to do the team first defensive stuff. Matt’s also clear best 22 and won’t ever be outside of the AFL side unless suspension or injury hit.

The elephant in the room that needs discussing is the groin injury that kept him out for all of 2021. There was a period that he was playing SANFL and on track for a late-season appearance. However, a further reoccurrence meant that any hopes of games were dashed. His 2022 preseason didn’t get underway flawlessly. The club has taken an intentionally slow build towards getting him back to full fitness. Recently, Matt spoke to the club media team and stated, ‘obviously last year was tough, so to come back and have my body feeling really good again, feeling fit and ready to go is massive for me.’

That’s a promising sign for those looking to him as a genuine value option. However, what must you be looking for over the next few weeks for him to make your round one side? A faultless preseason from here on! No setbacks and no-load management. If he’s able to deliver every step through the final few weeks of preseason, he can hold his position in your starting squad.

Not everyone’s structure is looking for a player in this range, and for those going a more pure ‘guns and rookies’ approach, then he might not be suitable for you. However, he has to be considered for those considering an upper midrange option. If Elliot Yeo or Caleb Serong are players you are considering, then Crouch must be added to that same watchlist.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, Crouch appears to be one of the most straightforward selections in my team if he can maintain a faultless few weeks before round one. It’s not often you get a free hit at a 105, averaging midfielder at this much value. While in SuperCoach, as good as he could be, I think many will be making the correct choice and investing an extra $50k and locking in Lachie Neale over him.

DRAFT DECISION

On the draft day, every coach is looking for upside, and every coach always wants to avoid taking as many risks early on draft day. Some will still reach for Matt Crouch, and by reach, I mean to jump and draft as an M2. The reality is, given the plethora of top midfielders we have, I don’t think that early leap is justified. I’d be targeting an M4 range, but M3 is the earliest I’d be happy to leap.

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#17 Most Relevant | Jack Crisp

Read Time:7 Minute, 24 Second

Since 2015 when Jack Crisp joined Collingwood, he hasn’t missed a game! Seven seasons of elite durability. To go with it, he’s coming off the back of his best-ever fantasy footy season. 2022 has already been forecast as a year that will challenge even the most astute fantasy coach; perhaps Crisp is the consistent piece your team needs to help you thrive.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jack Crisp
Age: 28
Club: Collingwood Magpies
Position: MID/DEF

2021 Highest Score:
141 Vs Port Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
143 Vs West Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
147 Vs Geelong | AFLFantasy (2018)
153 Vs Richmond | SuperCoach (2018)

2021 Average:
101.7 (AFLFantasy)
104.9 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $571,000
AFLFantasy Price: $854,00
AFLDreamTeam Price: $867,800

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Jack Crisp has become a crucial member of the Pies team since joining the club back in 2014 as part of the Dayne Beams trade. Over the past seven seasons, he’s been the Mr Fix It of the club covering roles from all three portions of the ground. His primary strengths are his ability to apply defensive pressure on the ground, to defensively beat his man one-on-one and then distribute the ball with his booming left foot.

In 2021 Crisp had a mixture of roles, in the front half of the season, he was a regular staple of the centre bounce rotations, while as the season went on floated back towards his more traditional defensive role. Over the year he attended 40% of centre bounces, and he was someone who before the positions were announced in December was losing defensive status. Thankfully, the boffins at champion data have let him retain this status while also adding the midfield eligibility allowing immediate in-season flexibility to go with his high durability and strong scoring capacities.

It was a record-breaking season from Crisp in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. He is the number one ranked defender by total points and ranked second by averages. His average of 101.7 was constructed through thirteen tons, four of these above 120 and an additional four scores between 90-99.

The SuperCoach season from Crisp was even stronger. His average of 104.9 has him ranked as the sixth-best backman by averages, but by total points, he’s the #2 option available. He’s less than 50 points shy of Daniel Rich with the most points scored of available defenders. Over the year he scored thirteen tons, five of them over 120 and an additional three scores over 90. His lowest score of the season was 79. To have that level of the scoring basement in any line, let alone defenders is elite!

As an interesting aside, in the first portion of the year his centre bounce attendances especially pre bye were more pronounced. While they were still there afterwards, he clearly spent more time in the defensive fifty roles. The reason I bring this up is before the bye from his thirteen games he averaged 100 across the formats. However, in the nine matches post-bye he averaged 103.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 112 in SuperCoach. Normally being in the midfield is a good thing for a scoring increase. But based on the numbers, perhaps Crisp is better when his time is a little more split.

While 2021 was a breakout season for Crisp, he’s had multiple seasons of strong scoring

During the 2020 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he posted two tons, plus had four additional scores over 80. Remember that in shortened quarters last season that 80 was the new 100. By the end of the year, he ranked third among defenders for total points and sixth for averages. It was a strong season from Crisp in SuperCoach. He posted 8 tons, 3 of them were above 120 and had an additional 4 scores over 90. On top of his scoring heights, he barely burnt coaches with a poor score. Just one all season did his scoring drop under 60. By the end of the year in that format, he ranked 7th among all defenders for total points and 11th for averages.

Since being a Magpie his seasonal averages have been fantastic. In SuperCoach he’s delivered 89, 85, 82, 95, 88, 99 & 104.9 . While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam it’s 91, 84, 88 87, 97, 76 (95 adjusted average.) & 101.7. However, the cream on the op of all his scoring is the flawless gaps in his availability. Since joining the Magpies back in 2015 he’s had immaculate durability. He hasn’t missed a match for seven years playing 163 consecutive matches. The closest to him is Clayton Oliver with 111. when you pick Crispy, you get 22 games and a worry free defensive selection. By owning him it removes one headache from your season.

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MY TAKE

Jack Crisp has the scoring to match it with the best, but his durability sets him apart. It’s incredibly rare to have this level of availability. How many times have you had to make a trade due to an injury? For example, Tom Stewart played 20 games, Dyson Heppell played 18. While it was, Lachie Whitfield and Shannon Hurn play played just 15. Using bench cover regularly for premiums missing multiple games is one of the ways you slide your scoring quickly. Even worse is regularly tradings premiums out with injuries. Historically with Crisp, neither of these happen. When you pick Jack, you get 22 weeks of him.

Go back and look at those averages; he’s played every game and has the clear top availability of any premium defender. While this could change entering this year, it should give potential owners high confidence that when you pick him as a premium, you’re getting 22 games from him.

New Collingwood coach Craig McRae has spoken about a change in the midfield. Most notably, Scott Pendlebury will have his fair share of time coming off the halfback line. In the same article, Crisp clarified his role as a rotation between the backline and a midfielder.

2021 has given coaches a bounty of solid premium defenders, many with a case to suggest they’ve still got. I think we’ve got some brilliant premiums, all with upside. Aaron Hall had the best ceiling frequency of any defender in the game; as discussed earlier this preseason here, post role change, he was unstoppable and still offers value. If the departure of Jordan Dawson means a rebound of scoring for Jake Lloyd, then his price point is irresistible. Lachie Whitfield is one of the best players in the game. In almost every round he’s capable of scoring 180’s. Jordan Ridley, Dyson Heppell, Jordan Dawson and Jayden Short have all been covered through this series. All have compelling stories of how the scoring can improve significantly. The same cannot be said for Jack Crisp. Arguably he’s priced at his maximum output.

In 2022 I honestly can’t advocate for coaches to start with more than three defensive premiums. The above options present the greater upside in scoring based on price. So as good as he is, I can’t select him over some of these names at his price.

But if Crisp is ranked higher than these names, what makes him more relevant? Great question. Remember, success in salary cap formats is based on the timing of trades. With Jack, don’t buy high; buy low. And given his historical scoring and durability, he is a perfect early season upgrade target.

DRAFT DECISION

Every coach drafts with a differing mindset. Some value scoring ceiling capacity. Other coaches highest priority is to have players with minimal scoring deviation. While others, the greatest weapon is the durability and availability of games. None are wrong, all have merit, but all are different and mean specific markers trigger different guys to get picked differently.

With Jack Crisp, he won’t be one of the first few defenders taken, and I’d be shocked if he went inside the top selections overall. But I suspect he’ll become a popular pick by round three.

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#18 Most Relevant | Sam Walsh

Read Time:6 Minute, 14 Second

From day one in the AFL, Sam Walsh has demonstrated the abilities that make him one of the best midfielders in the game. Thankfully for us fantasy footy coaches, these abilities translate into being one of the best premium players to own. After delivering coaches a top ten season in 2021, Walsh has set his sights on being the top player in the game, and I believe he can do it.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Sam Walsh
Age: 21
Club: Carlton Blues
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score:
155 Vs Collingwood (AFLFantasy)
193 Vs Collingwood (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
155 Vs Collingwood | AFLFantasy (2021)
193 Vs Collingwood | SuperCoach (2021)

2021 Average:
108.9 (AFLFantasy)
117 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $637,100
AFLFantasy Price: $914,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $929,000

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

From day one of Sam Walsh’s AFL career, he’s displayed why’s he’s been touted as one of the safest 300 game players ever. Walsh is the total package; he’s a tough customer inside stoppages, a strong runner in space, a high footy IQ, and one of the hardest workers both on and off the field.

His debut AFL season is still the greatest ever put together by a first-year cash cow. In 2019 he finished the season averaging 93, scored 7 tons, had nine extra scores over 80 & only dipped his scoring under 70 in just two matches.

SuperCoach performances from Sam were equally as impressive as he ended the year averaging 87. It consisted of 6 tons, eight additional scores above 80 & just three times scored less than 70. His 2020 years was a tale of two halves, but in his final eight matches of the year, he scored in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam 83, 95, 67, 88, 96, 114, 95 & 77; averaging an 89 (adjusted 111.) While for SuperCoach he posted 114, 123, 98, 113, 132, 161, 84 & 119 averaging a total 118.

So it was no surprise to anyone to see Sam Walsh establish himself as one of the top-end midfield premiums last year. He was ranked sixth on the league for handbells per game, seventh for effective disposals, tenth for uncontested possessions and nineteenth for score involvements per game. Walsh is ranked elite for disposals, score involvements, marks and uncontested possessions.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he joined the premium midfielder status, finishing tenth for total points in these formats. His year consisted of sixteen tons, eight over 120 and two 130+ including his career-high 155. By the season’s closing, his average of 108.9 has him ranked twelfth in the competition and with stronger averages than popular premiums like Clayton Oliver and Marcus Bontempelli.

Walsh’s SuperCoach season was even stronger. He scored fifteen tons, eleven of them were over 120, and four monster scores of 140 or above, including his PB of 193. He’s currently ranked ninth for total SuperCoach points, more than Zach Merrett, Rory Laird and Christian Petracca. While by averages, he’s ranked tenth.

On top of this scoring trend, he’s got immaculate durability. Since his round one debut in 2019, he’s still yet to miss a game of footy. Honestly, Walsh has had the perfect start to his football career, and the good news is he’s still got plenty of natural improvement left within him.

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MY TAKE

Everything points towards Sam Walsh as one of the best fantasy footballers in the game. During the offseason, fellow Coaches, Panelist Kane & I created a list of the top 50 keeper league plater prospects, which as a patreon, you can claim here. Without giving away where we ranked him, it’s safe to say it’s pretty high on the list. The reason being is he’s just elite at almost every possible avenue, and with the recent offseason additions at Carlton, I’m convinced that will only further aid him.

The addition of George Hewett in the midfield core will allow Walsh to play an even more attacking brand of footy. At Sydney, Hewett was at his best as a defensive-minded midfielder. At the same time, Adam Cerra will add further outside class and polish to support him. And finally, if Patrick Cripps can get his body right, we know just how strong he is as a contested player will share the load at the stoppage. These three play secondary support roles behind Walsh will thrive and ultimately live up to his potential.

While the trend of scoring is heading in a positive trajectory, with it usually comes increased attention from opposition teams and the dreaded taggers. Last year, the tag went to and had a significant impact on his output on a few occasions. In round fourteen against GWS, he was held to 20 possessions and scored an AFLFntasy/DreamTeam 55, while it was 71 in SuperCoach. A month later, against North Melbourne, he scored a 72 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 81 in SuperCoach. As concerning as some of these games might be, he also had just as many games that he got tagged, worked his way through it and scored a triple-digit score.

Working the way through a tag and still scoring consistently is the only fathomable concern coaches can make around him. It’s a challenge all our other favourite uber premiums have had to work through. But, based on what he’s done over the trend of his AFL career plus his elite endurance and workrate, I’m very confident he’ll navigate this final challenge of his game.

How much higher can he go? There’s not much further he can go. But if there’s anywhere, statistically, the best avenue might be tied to how well his Blues go this year. In Carlton’s eight wins last year, he averaged 132 in SuperCoach & 119.9 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.

To start with, Walsh means his a weekly VC/C consideration in your starting team. If you don’t have the confidence he can be a captaincy option most weeks for you, then ultimately, you have your answer about if you should start or target him as an upgrade. I see him as a safe as houses VC/C and one of the safest top tier midfielders in 2022.

DRAFT DECISION

As good as Sam Walsh is, I don’t believe you’ll need to fork out a first-round selection on him on draft day. He will go in many leagues second rounds. Either as an M1 or M2, depending on if a coach is loading the midfield early or picking off the top end options in the alternate lines.

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