50 Most Relevant Archives - Page 19 of 32

#19 Most Relevant | Jackson Macrae

Read Time:4 Minute, 47 Second

Over the past three seasons, Jack Macrae has been a staple in our fantasy footy sides. But will the trend continue into 2021?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jackson Macrae
Age: 26
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
128 Vs Brisbane (AFLFantasy)
183 Vs Brisbane (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
190 Vs Richmond | AFLFantasy (2018)
189 Vs Gold Coast | SuperCoach (2018)

2020 Average:
90.1 (AFLFantasy) | 112.6 (Adjusted Average)
121 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $650,100
AFLFantasy Price: $860,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $832,100

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For the past three seasons Jackson Macrae has been a consistent top tier premium midfielder across all formats of the game. However, he’s not just a good fantasy players he’s a brilliant footballer in general.

Last year across the league he ranked 2nd for disposals, 3rd for uncontested possessions, 8th for inside ’50s & 17th for total centre clearances and score involvements. In summary, Jackson does it all!

For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 901 (adjusted average of 112) He posted 6 tons, plus 7 additional scores over 80. He ended the year ranked 7th for total points and 12th by averages.

In SuperCoach it was his third consecutive season averaging over 120. He finished the year averaging 121 and ranked 5th for total points and by averages. He scored 12 tons, 6 of them over 130 and a crazy 3 of them over 160. Additionally, his only score below 90 came in the final round of 2020 an 85 against the Dockers

When we look at his 2019 AFLFantasy season, he averaged 115 and had only two scores below 80 all year. His year was made up of 17 tons, 9 of them he converted into 120+ including two 150+ monsters.

While his SuperCoach season was a similar level of dominance, he posted 19 tons across the season, 11 of these were over 120 and three above 150. He had just two scores all year beneath 80 and averaged 123 across the year.

Since 2018 Jackson Macrae has scored 46 AFLFantasy tons (including adjusted stats) and scored 100 or more in 79% of games. While in SuperCoach it’s 47 tons from 58 games, meaning he’s tonned up in 81% of the time.

Let’s be honest, if you’ve played fantasy footy over the previous three seasons you know just how good of a player that Macrae is and can be. The big question is, what does the 2021 season hold for him?

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MY TAKE

Nobody is questioning the historical importance of Jackson Macrae. What everyone is pondering is, does his scoring get impacted with the inclusion of Adam Treloar?

For some, they believe the addition of Treloar is just a further mouth to feed in the midfield and that Macrae could get pushed onto more of a wing role to squeeze him in. I don’t believe that to be the case. Yes, Macrae played there in 2020, but there are reasons for it.

Lachie Hunter is easily the club’s strongest outside midfielder, and in 2020 he missed 8 games with a club imposed ban and journeying through his mental health. And when he was missing Macrae was the one who played more outside. He averaged 13 points per game less in AFLFantasy and 16 in SuperCoach without Hunter.

Rather I think it’s more like Bailey Smith, Marcus Bontempelli or Tom Liberatore with a rotation or two further outside of the middle to fit in Treloar. The bulldogs have shown for many years they can be a team capable of sharing the points around. I see little reason for them moving away from that this year.

Remember those stats I shared at the start of this article. They teach us that he’s a dynamic midfielder who gets it done both inside and outside the contests. He uses his elite motor to get to multiple contests and uses his footy IQ to get to the place where the ball will be even before it lands there.

He’s unique as a starter in 2021, only time reveals is the answer to this question. Were coaches who went against the grain and started him rewarded with high scoring? Or are those who waited and targeted him as an upgrade proven correct?

Honestly, depending on the day, I change my perspective on to start or upgrade. I know his selection spot will be one that continues to plague me deep into the preseason.

DRAFT DECISION

In the previous two seasons, if you’d wanted to own Jackson Macrae then he’d cost you a first round selection. However, this year I believe we’ll only see a couple of midfielders picked.

The reason being is I see coaches wanting to lock down a top tier defender, ruck or forward early and then draft a midfielder in the second. That’s exactly the place I still see Macrae going; I don’t believe the bulldog midfield dilemma will cause him to slide much at all.

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#20 Most Relevant | Dustin Martin

Read Time:5 Minute, 22 Second

In the past two years, it’s two premierships and two Norm Smith medals for Dustin Martin? What does 2021 hold for him and for fantasy coaches that select him?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Dustin Martin
Age: 29
Club: Richmond
Position: MID/FWD

2020 Highest Score:
105 Vs Essendon (AFLFantasy)
184 Vs Western Bulldogs (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
164 Vs North Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2017)
184 Vs Western Bulldogs | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
74.6 (AFLFantasy) | 93.25 (Adjusted Average)
100.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $541,600
AFLFantasy Price: $713,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $689,600

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Another year and another Dustin Martin Norm Smith Medal. Despite not being at his prolific peak across the season, Dusty has proven once and for all he’s among the best finals players in AFL history.

He was cruising in third gear for the majority of the home and away season, despite that he still ranked 8th in the AFL for contested possessions, 9th for goal assists and 15th for total disposals.

In SuperCoach he had a slower start than owners would’ve liked. With just one ton and multiple scores below 80 and averaging 89. However, in the next 7 weeks, he scored 5 tons including that career best 184 to average 116 between round 7-13. The 2020 season ended with him averaging 100, scoring 7 tons and 4 scores below 80.

AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 74 (adjusted93), consisting of 2 tons and 5 additional scores between 90-99. Across both formats, he ranked top 5 among all forwards for points and average.

2020 was a similar output on his 2019 season. In AFLFantasy, he averaged 97 across the season. It was made up of ten tons with five scores of 128 or higher. He also had some of the lowest ceiling scores of his recent career with six scores under 80 with a seasonal low of 59.

For SuperCoach season saw him miss an average of over 100, the first time since 2014. It wasn’t by much with an average of 99.9. Across the season he had 11 scores over 100 with three 120 or above. In addition to getting hundreds in 50% of games, he added four scores between 90-99.

You need to go back to 2012 for the last time Dustin Martin failed to average 90 or higher across all game formats. Please take a look at it from a visual perspective.

*2020 is based off AFLFantasy’s x1.25 of average

To pair with this high scoring capacity and consistency is his durability. Dustin Martin doesn’t miss games of footy. Over the past seven seasons of AFL, he’s missed just 4 games. Incredible durability and availability during this time. A selection of Dusty is a reliable scoring safety net for coaches again in 2021.

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MY TAKE

A safe pick can often be presumed as vanilla or lazy pick by some in the fantasy football community. However, I don’t see it this way. Sometimes the safest move is the best move for your team.

Picking Dustin Martin in your forward line is a safe move. Any bad scores he may deliver will be balanced out with a few monster scores across the season. So as long as you don’t panic, he’ll reward you. SuperCoach is certainly his preferred format, but he still has plenty to offer in AFLFantasy and DreamTeam.

I believe there is one reason why we do not see Dustin Martin in more starting squads. He’s not a value pick, neither is he a captaincy option. Rather what you pay for, is likely what you are to get. Fantasy coaches are scampering to stretch the salary cap more than ever before and finding it harder to justify paying for a premium, that isn’t a weekly captaincy consideration.

Sometimes looking at a player’s numbers can say two entirely different things to different people. For some, they look at his 2019-2020 scores and believe they can’t go without him. While others will look at the same data and choose he can be missed. With Dusty, confirmation bias will have potentially an even greater sway in the decision to pick or pass.

Like many AFL teams, they lost the home ground advantage. But for Richmond and Dusty, the MCG has been a fortress since 2017. Over his first 12 games before the multi bye round the Tigers plays 8 games at the home of football. That’s a handy start for the reigning Norm Smith medalist.

The Tigers are part of the 6 teams taking round 13 off. While it’s not as painful as other rounds, it still does require some planning to navigate well. In your forward line, the only other premiums to consider is Josh Dunkley and Dayne Zorko. In Part how you rank Dusty compared to these two will inform whether you start, upgrade or pass on him.

History says that at some stage during the season he’ll go on a hot streak of scoring for a few months. The question isn’t if, but rather when? Answer that, and you can time that right, then you’ll be ahead of the pack.

DRAFT DECISION

For the second season running Dustin Martin will fly off early in draft boards as someones F1. The question is just how early? In SuperCoach I can see him leaving draft boards ranging from the late second round and into no later than the fourth. In AFLFantasy, it’s probably sliding another 5 picks. So from the early third to late fourth at the latest.

In 2021 securing a top tier F1 is coming with a premium, and with one of his scoring and durability, it’ll justifiably cost you an early round selection.

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#21 Most Relevant | Rowan Marshall

Read Time:5 Minute, 54 Second

After sharing the ruck role in 2020, Rowan Marshall has gained one of the most helpful DPP’s in the game. Will you be starting the St Kilda star in your squad?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Rowan Marshall
Age: 25
Club: St Kilda Saints
Position: RUC/FWD

2020 Highest Score:
99 Vs Carlton (AFLFantasy)
160 Vs Port Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
126 Vs Port Adelaide | AFLFantasy (2019)
161 Vs Richmond | SuperCoach (2019)

2020 Average:
77.2 (AFLFantasy) | 96.25 (Adjusted Average)
103.7 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $557,200
AFLFantasy Price: $738,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $713,700

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

After a stunning 2019 it was a slow start to the season for Rowan Marshall. Understandably so given the number of changes into the Saints outfit the previous trade period.

Over his first 7 games of the season, Marshall posted just three scores over 70 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 3 over 82 in SuperCoach. However, from that point on both he and his Saints found form.

From round 8 until the conclusion of the season in AFLFanasy he had just one score below 75. He ended the year averaging 77 (96 adjusted) and had 8 scores of 80 or above. Remembering that in 2020 ’80 was the 100′ of the previous years.

Over in SuperCoach, his seasonal average was 103; he scored 8 tons, had 2 monster scores over 140 and didn’t drop a score below 70 all season. What a great demonstration of a player who boasts both high ceiling and high scoring floor.

Not a bad seasonal performance, especially considering he was ruck sharing with Patrick Ryder. So how much ruck split will the two share in 2021?

Firstly, I believe the longer quarters and the reduced interchanges should increase his time on the ground. Ultimately, the longer you spend on the field, the greater the opportunity to increase your scoring grows.

Second and finally, with Paddy Ryder turning 32 and coming off the back of a serious hamstring tendon injury it wouldn’t shock me to see the role splits drift further. By this, I mean that Marshall should get the bump of more time in the ruck over Ryder. Should this happen, then we could see a repeating of the 2019 scores.

That season he was the Saints and played 20 games across the season. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 99, scored 12 tons, 4 pf these were over 120, and his scoring fell below 80 just one. While in SuperCoach he averaged 110, posted 14 tons, 6 of these were over 120 and only scored below 80 in just 2 matches.

Nobody wishes injury on anyone, but if Ryder misses big chunks of the year, then Marshall’s already strong stocks increase again.

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MY TAKE

So why did the Saints chase Patrick Ryder? Thankfully, it has nothing to do with any deficiencies in the game of Marshall. Instead, his recruitment is to help protect the development of Max King. With Josh Bruce’s departure, another tall forward target (that could help relief ruck) was required. Ryder allowed the Saints to protect King for another season or two while also further enhancing Marshall’s tap work.

When picking any player that plays through the ruck, they need to have a consistent scoring base in two core areas. Firstly, through hitouts and hitouts to advantage.

As a sole ruck in 2019, he averaged 28 a game. This scoring basement means that before he does anything else in the game, he’s already a third of the way to a score in the 90’s for AFLFantasy. In 2020 he hitouts dipped to average 14 per game. No surprise due to the ruck sharing.

This scoring dip was positively minimised, with nearly 1 goal every 2 games to a goal per game. With a return to full quarters, these two scoring lines should see steady growth.

Based on statistics, Marshall clearly grew as a threat inside forward 50. With Max King developing further this year, Marshall might get some weeks with a super favourable matchup inside attacking 50.

Finally, can they impact the game around the ground? In 2019 averaging 17 possessions, four marks and three tackles. In 2020 his possesions count dipped by 3 per game, but that’s largely due to shorter game times. Positively his marks per game stat line held strong.

His addition of RUC/FWD DPP lets you as an owner do two things. Firstly, hedge your bets on a Braydon Preuss style stepping stone ruck at R2. Preuss plays both Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy inside the first few rounds. While everything seems to have aligned for him to be a great stepping stone, Marshall’s pick is added security. If he flops, use DPP to move Rowan into the ruck line and move Preuss onto the stepping stone that pops.

The second thing it does is he can help save you trades in season. By selecting a non-playing R/F at R3, you can easily move Marshall into the ruck division should an injury, suspension or late out hit.

His RUC/FWD flexibility is a huge arsenal in his selection, but it is dinted by the R14 bye. He’s part of the dreaded rounded where can’t use him to cover for Gawn, Grundy or O’Brien.

Rowan Marshall is sliding under alot of coaches noses this preseason, and astute coaches hope that trend continues. If he doesn’t end up in your starting squad, you’ll want to consider him as an early season upgrade at the very least.

DRAFT DECISION

In drafts, versatility has arguably an increased relevance, especially if you can use DPP to its full effect. I rank Rowan Marshall in a similar tier as both a ruck or forward. He’s not in the top tier, but you can build a case he’s in the mix for the following level down.

It’s why I think somewhere between the 4th-5th is the sweet spot for drafting him. That DPP gives you options. You can take a late flyer pick on another speculative ruck such as Sam Draper or Oscar McInerney. If they pop, an 85+ average, roll Marshall FWD and kick off the F5 you currently have rolling on the ground. . If not, you’ve still got solid R1 insurance on your bench cover.

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#22 Most Relevant | Isaac Heeney

Read Time:6 Minute, 49 Second

The hype surrounding Isaac Heeney has been immense across the fantasy footy community. While he’s always been a high scoring forward, he’s never elevated his game to the top tier. Can that happen in 2021?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Isaac Heeney
Age: 24
Club: Sydney Swans
Position: Forward

2020 Highest Score:
101 Vs Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
152 Vs Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
132 Vs Geelong | AFLFantasy (2016)
152 Vs Adelaide | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
70.6 (AFLFantasy) | 88.25 (Adjusted Average)
94 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $454,500
AFLFantasy Price: $603,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $587,300

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Almost 12 months ago, Isaac Heeney was the sole reason the Swans kicked off the season with a win against the Crows. That game he kicked four goals and scored a 101 in AFLFantasy and a 152 in SuperCoach.

This was the sort of games both Sydney fans and the fantasy community had been waiting for where he would put the team on his back and march them to victory.

During round three after the COVID break, he did it again with another match turning performance against the Kangaroos. That game he scored 86 in AFLFantasy and 123 in SuperCoach

Sadly, just a few weeks later an Injury against eventual premiers Richmond struck, Heeney ruptured ligaments in his ankle. Sadly, this ruled him out for the rest of the season.

Due to him playing just 6 games, he’s recieved a discount, making the consistent 90+ forward a value option as well as a genuine top 10 forward option. Consider what he’s done the seasons prior.

During the 2019 season, Isaac Heeney started slow and many coaches after the opening two rounds I know many who chose to move him on. In spite of that, he ended up averaging 89, nine AFLFantasy/DreamTeam hundreds and dipped below 70 in only five matches.

For SuperCoach he averaged 94, reaching triple figures in nine games, three of them were above 130, and in only four games he failed to score over 70.

While many remember the slow start from him were he managed only three tons in the opening eleven matches his back half of the year is a more closely aligned to what he has done over his career. In the opening 11 games, he averaged 84 in AFLFantasy and 90 in SuperCoach, while in the later 11 games he averaged 94 in AFLFantasy and 97 in SuperCoach.

Between 2017-2019 he averaged 92, 90 & 89 in AF while in SuperCoach he’s averaged 97, 97 & 94. It’s relatively simple, by picking Heeney you’re selecting one of the lowest risk top forward options of the season. Throw in an injury discount due to him missing large chunks of the year, and it’s hard not to consider him.

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MY TAKE

For the past three to four seasons the football community has been awaiting a release of him into becoming a full-time midfielder. Will he ever get the bulk midfield time at Sydney?

How much midfield time he acquires is linked ultimately to the structure of that Sydney outfit. Additionally, it’s to the health of their marking talls. Sam Reid and Lance Franklin of late don’t have the exceptional durability. Thankfully, the recruitment of key forward Nick Blakely and more recently, Logan McDonald should help take some of the initial demand off.

Heeney is an elite mark and is a tough matchup for opposition defenders who will lose out to him either because of an aerial ability mismatch or to go with him at ground level.

It’s why for me that regardless of the key forward prospects that they have I believe he’s’s destined for a heavy split role favouring the forward line. Who have the Swans invited early picks into the past few seasons? Midfielders! Dylan Stephens, James Rowbottom, Justin McInerney, Chad Warner, plus Academy talents Braeden Campbell and Errol Gulden.

I believe Isaac Heeney‘s career is taking a similar trajectory as Toby Greene. Where that as a junior he’s an established midfield talent, but given his ability to be a dangerous matchup inside forward 50. He’s now more valuable to his team here than as a 30 plus possession ball winner.

Every person in the fantasy community says they want to see Sydney release him into the midfield fully, and perhaps that will happen. However, he doesn’t require that to be a genuine premium and average in the mid to high 90’s.

Given he’s come in with a discount, I think if you’re considering him, you need to start him as you get the potential value with the discount. Otherwise, you can let him pass you by this season.

What does come with his low scoring variation is a relatively limited ceiling, Because of that you can build a case that even though he does present value, does he score enough to hurt you? Ultimately you can look at it in one of two ways.

Firstly, the negative light. Although he might be a top 10 average forward, he’ll rarely win you a league matchup or go on a hot streak of 5-6 seeks averaging 110+. Can you pick someone who has a favourable fixture at a comparable or smaller price in the opening few weeks? If so, maybe you can look elsewhere.

The positive light is that if you’ve lost some confidence in the top group of forwards in building your starting squad, Heeney provides a safety net. Barring injury history suggests he’ll average 5 points either side of 90. If you’re worried about this top group of forwards scoring, then a safe approach is sometimes the best approach as he won’t burn you.

My biggest concern isn’t his scoring, but rather his multi bye round. Round 14 has some of the biggest names in fantasy, even without looking into the midfield, where Matt Crouch, Clayton Oliver, Nat Fyfe, Taylor Adams and Jack Steele live.

Arguably four of the best ruck options come from this round. Max Gawn, Brodie Grundy, Reilly O’Brien and DPP Rowan Marshall. So unless we have a rookie ruck that emerges most coaches will find themselves down to needing to field 18 from the final 20 on-field positions.

Throw in the backs of Rory Laird, Jack Crisp, Jake Lloyd, Luke Ryan or the forwards of Rowan Marshall plus Isaac Heeney, and if coaches aren’t careful, they could struggle to field 16. Yes, it’s only for one round, but you can undo three months of good scoring and be overtaken in one poor week.

He’s value, he’s safe, but is he right for you?

DRAFT DECISION

If you don’t secure a top 10 forward as your F1 inside the first 4-5 rounds, then your forwards will look thin. Historically, you’d be able to hunt the waiver wire for 75+ scoring value options most week to fill out your squad. That still should happen, but the topline F1/F2 spots are light on the safe 85-95+ averaging targets.

I don’t have Isaac Heeney inside my top tier of forwards, but he’s in the next group down. If targeting an F1 in the 4th round, then he’s your guy. He won’t last much beyond that if at all.

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#23 Most Relevant | Dyson Heppell

Read Time:5 Minute, 5 Second

Injuries have been cruel to Essendon captain Dyson Heppell. If he can get himself fit, he’s arguably the bargain basement pick of the 2021 season.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Dyson Heppell
Age: 28
Club: Essendon Bombers
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
52 Vs Sydney (AFLFantasy)
89 Vs Sydney (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
156 Vs Hawthorn | AFLFantasy (2017)
153 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2019)

2020 Average:
41.3 (AFLFantasy) | 51 (Adjusted Average)
66 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $319,100
AFLFantasy Price: $566,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $343,500

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

The 2020 season went pear shaped for Dyson Heppell. After returning from the COVID break, he managed his first game before a fractured ankle limited his output again for the coming months. Even though he forced his way back to play round 15 and 16, he clearly lacked match fitness and barely impacted the game.

Some of these scores from 2020 are far from strong. OK, they are poor by his standards But remember, we are not paying for him to be a premium, not even close. We are paying for him to be a quick stepping stone to a fallen premium.

For a decade Dyson Heppell has been someone we’ve discussed amongst fantasy circles, both as a cash cow and a premium performer. It all started in 2011 when he played all 22 games in his debut season an averaged 84 in all formats.

Between 2014-2019 his lowest seasonal average in SuperCoach is 94.7 and 93.8 in AFLFantasy. From a visual perspective here’s what it looks like.

NB: 2016 Dyson was part of the Essendon drug saga suspensions

If fit, and you want a stepping stone then Dyson is someone you need to consider. He’s a proven performer, he’s clearly inside his teams best 22 (the captaincy will do that to you), and he’s got a history even as recent as 2019 of being someone who can return than good scores.

In 2019 he averaged 95 in SuperCoach, posted 5 tons including a 153 and a 125. Additionally, he had 7 scores 80+. While for AFLFantasy he averaged 94, scored 5 tons, all 107 or above and only dipped his scoring below 94 all year. If he can return scores anywhere near that, he’d be the best pick of the season.

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MY TAKE

The scoring history of Dyson Heppell is evident. And if fit, he’s clearly one of the prime stepping stone options in our starting squad. The hesitation among the community isn’t linked to this. Rather the concerns are linked to a growing concern around his durability.

Since June 27th, 2019 he’s played just five AFL games. That’s 581 days since his troublesome foot injury first started to cost him games. How’s he tracking in the preseason?

Bombers head of strength and conditioning Sean Murphy told essendonfc.com.au. “He’s starting to build in with the main group in terms of their skill program, and now it’ll be a balance between the right amount of conditioning and the football drills. We’ll build his program over the next five to six weeks and have him ready to play good football when he returns.”

That’s not horrible, but it’s certainly not great either. Based on these timelines he’s not just touch and go for the AAMI Community series, but also round 1. What does he need to do to stay in serious contention for our sides? Simple! Avoid any setbacks. Even a minor one and he needs to be disregarded. But if he can continue to build over the next few weeks, he’s still a viable option.

In AFLFantasy the question many coaches are facing is ‘how many of these $500,000-$600,000 players can we start with. In this price range along with Heppell is Ben Cunnington ($503k) Rory Sloane ($580k), Matt Rowell ($574k) and Joel Selwood ($596k). How many of these can we own in our starting squad?

Ultimately, it’s about your overall squad structure rather than just the contrasting of midfielders, but it’s certainly an area where we have plenty of options.

In SuperCoach if fit, and you are in the market for a stepping stone he’s hard to pass on. Let’s put it another way. For less than $10,000, would you choose a Jackson Hately who has potential, but not much beyond that? Or do you pick Heppell who has 6 years of 90 averages between 2013-2019?

Similarly in DreamTeam, he’s $140k cheaper that Hately. Additionally he’s only $100,000 more expensive than popular rookie pick Will Phillips.

The choice comes down to these two things. Firstly, is he fit and will be playing? If yes, he’s past the first prerequisite required. Second, how many cash cows do we have? This will ultimately determine how much we can pursue a guns and rookies approach.

DRAFT DECISION

If you can land Dyson Heppell with one of your last few selections in the draft, then he’s a no-risk option. On draft day your final few draft picks are just speculative reaches that more often than not find themselves thrown back into the pool in a few weeks.

Even with injury concerns snagging Heppell as a bench cover pick up is as solid an insurance policy as you can hope for.

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#24 Most Relevant | Rory Sloane

Read Time:5 Minute, 5 Second

2020 was a year to forget for the Adelaide footy club. For their skipper Rory Sloane he spent the majority of the season recovering from injury. Now back to full health, can he return to being a midfield premium?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Rory Sloane
Age: 30
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
78 Vs GWS Giants (AFLFantasy)
123 Vs Sydney (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
160 Vs Brisbane | AFLFantasy (2014)
180 Vs North Melbourne | SuperCoach (2013)

2020 Average:
60.7 (AFLFantasy) | 75.8 (Adjusted Average)
87.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $471,900
AFLFantasy Price: $580,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $560,900

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2020 was a tough year to battle through for Rory Sloane and the Adelaide Football club? Just how difficult? Ultimately, fans will get to see the inner working’s of the year given Rory was one of several players involved in the new Amazon Prime documentary series Marking Their Mark.

Multiple injuries frustrated him and caused him to be nowhere near his best both as a player and for his fantasy footy scoring. His run of poor luck came in the round 2 showdown where a corky to his right quad saw him miss the last third of the game. Two games later against Brisbane he injured his ankle and battled through the next two games before fracturing his hand against West Coast.

Between round 1-6, he had just two scores above 70 in AFLFantasy, while for SuperCoach he delivered a 123 plus a 93 and 94. After overcoming injury, he played the final six games of the season. In AFLFantasy during this game stretch, he averaged 64.5 (adjusted 80) and 84 in SuperCoach.

These low scores plus him missing a third of the season is why he’s priced so low. What prospective owners will be hoping is that Sloane can return to previous seasons. In a return to his 2019 would see him bring an increase of 15 points per game in SuperCoach and 23 in AFLFantasy.

In 2019 he averaged 103 in SuperCoach scoring 14 tons, with 6 of them over 120 while in AFLFantasy he averaged 99 and scored 13 tons with 4 of those being over 120. More specifically it’s the way the season started fantasy players will be hoping he replicates. Between round 1-10, he averaged 115 in SuperCoach and 112 in AFLFantasy.

If Sloane can replicate scoring anywhere near, he’ll provide coaches with a high value scoring return. But he’ll also provide coaches with a genuine keeper for the season.

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MY TAKE

Over the past few seasons, the injury concerns are starting to emerge for Rory Sloane. Last year, the fractured hand was reminiscent of an ankle injury that ruled him out of 10 games back in 2019. While anyone that’s missed the number of games we need to be cautious of, coaches can still hold relative confidence in his body. Both are contact related injuries and are unrelated to each other.

What might also be concerning for possible players is that with Adelaide in a full rebuild is around whether Sloane retains that core midfield. The Crows need to get midfield minutes into Luke Pedlar, Chayce Jones, Ned McHenry, Jackson Hately and Harry Schoenberg. But I don’t believe it’ll be at the cost of Sloane. Rather Sloane leading and modelling through the midfield is one of the best this young inside midfield Crows can learn.

At times, Rory has been the target of a tag over his career, but I believe that he’s no longer the primary concern that he was 24-36 months ago for the opposition. Rather it’s Matt Crouch who’s the most likely midfielder for Adelaide to get that style of attention.

When selecting these value players you need to to come out of the gate scoring well. Thankfully for Sloane, his recent history against his opening few opponents is fire.

Rory Sloane’s averages in his previous 5 outings against his first 6 opponents of 2021.

The beauty of a Sloane at his price range is that almost regadless of how his year goes he provides you with options. Firstly, if things go pear shaped and he fails to score well. At his price he’s an easy sideways move to the breakout player who is.

Second, after 6 weeks of solid scoring, move him to a bottomed-out premium. Third, run him up to his round 14 bye and then pivot to a strong premium that’s already had a rest. Finally, keep him as an M8/M9 for the year because his scoring is compatible with any trade targets.

Which is the right play? Ultimately his performance over the season will inform which decision you should make.

DRAFT DECISION

Recency bias exists in the fantasy footy community. For better or worse, people will draft him based off what he delivered in 2020 rather than see that it was clearly an injury impacted season for Rory Sloane.

I’ve consistently been able to draft him as my M5 in the Draft Doctors mock draft simulator. If that eventuated on draft day, I’d feel like I had won the draft. If you are worried about his injury history, support the draft pick by selecting an extra midfielder into your squad.

Remember, every draft pick should support the following pick.

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#25 Most Relevant | Dayne Zorko

Read Time:5 Minute, 25 Second

It’s been a few seasons since Dayne Zorko was eligible in our forward lines. Back then, he was a premium performer. Can he be a top tier forward in 2021?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Dayne Zorko
Age: 31
Club: Brisbane Lions
Position: MID/FWD

2020 Highest Score:
124 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy)
163 Vs Western Bulldogs (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
181 Vs Geelong | AFLFantasy (2017)
196 Vs Geelong | SuperCoach (2017)

2020 Average:
78.9 (AFLFantasy) | 98.6 (Adjusted Average)
97.9 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $525,800
AFLFantasy Price: $753,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $728,800

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Ever since Dayne Zorko debuted in 2012 for Brisbane, he’s delivered premium scoring every year. And in 2020 Zorko moved from being an almost exclusive midfield player to a split MID/FWD role. The benefit of this for fantasy coaches is we can now select him as a forward in 2021.

Why the move more forward? At 31 years old his might be a factor, but I think that’s too simplistic of an analysis. I believe his work rate, goal sense and high defensive efforts that the Lions love. Last year he ranked 8th in the league for tackles inside 50 and 15th for score involvements per game.

Last year he missed some time due to a calf injury, but still managed to 15 games in the home and away season. In AFLFantasy he averaged 79 (98 adjusted) and scored 3 pure tons with an additional four 80+ scores. A reminder for players of these formats that due to the shortened quarters ’80 was the 100′ of 2020.

For SuperCoach he averaged 98 across the year, posted 8 tons and showcased his scoring ceiling with two of those tons being over 120.

It was a slower start to the year for Zorko, but after returning from injury in round 6, he averaged 105 across the formats for the remaining 12 games.

If you were to contrast his 2020 scores amongst currently available forward then in SuperCoach, he’s ranked 7th for total points and 8th for averages. While in AFLFantasy he’s the 5th best forward on points and 3rd highest average.

The season prior he played 22 games and averaged 104 in AFLFantasy which featured 12 tons with 7 of them over 120. In SuperCoach it’s even stronger, averaging 106, scoring 14 tons and 7 over 120.

You can go back even further, but the facts won’t change anything. A fit Dayne Zorko has some of the best ceiling available for all forwards.

Throughout the 50 most relevant you’ll have noticed how important to me durability and availability is. After all, it doesn’t matter how strong your scoring potential is if you can’t get on the field. For Zorko, he’s missed just 3 games in the past 5 seasons, and since his debut, back in 2012, he’s missed a total of 6 games.

Zorko does it all. High scoring, high availability and a proven performer for the better part of a decade. Honestly, I don’t understand rationally why so many coaches are opting not to consider him. He’s clearly going to be a top 10 forward this season should injuries not interrupt his year.

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MY TAKE

The premiums you commence with your side with you want to be ones that kick start the season strong. Dayne Zorko is just the type of player that can go on hot scoring run and set your year up for success. If he can start 2021 the eay he ended last year then he’s a ripe starting squad candidate.

At 31 years old most players are starting to wind down, but given Zorko has only been in the league for a decade he’s arguably fresher with him having less gruelling AFL preseason under his belt.

That said I still believe he’s still a core piece of that midfield puzzle. The Lions midfield top line are elite in Lachie Neale, Jarryd Lyons, Hugh MccCluggage and Jarrod Berry. Beyond that, it’s not that deep with Mitch Robinson the other primary midfielder before the role players rotate off the forward and backlines.

Zorko offers a dynamic and XFactor to the midfield when he’s lined up in there. If anything I think his MID/FWD split will continue much as we have seen from Robbie Gray and Gary Ablett.

If you were to look in detail at his scoring history, you’d see the high ceiling, but also that at times abysmal lows. One of the primary reasons for the poor historical scores and high deviation is that he was often the tag’s primary target.

With Lachie Neale in the side and even Jarryd Lyons, he’s increasingly unlikely to cop a midfield tag. Equally, if he’s playing forward, he’s clearly second in line behind Charlie Cameron.

So many coaches are opting to pass on Zorko and look at other premium forwards. And while the likes Steele Sidebottom, Rowan Marshall, Josh Dunkley and Patrick Dangerfield are great options but I’m rarely seeing Zorko anywhere. Could he be the perfect legitimate point of difference in your starting squad?

Based on his previous three years of history if you contrast his end of season run vs his pre by scores, then he’s certainly a better finisher than a starter.

DRAFT DECISION

He’ll be a coaches F1 selection on draft day, but the big unknown is how early the second tier of forwards go? I can see a world in some drafts where some leagues have an early forward rush, and Dayne Zorko could go as early as the first round. While in other leagues it could be 20 spots later.

I’d happily lock him in at F1 if I’ve got a pick on the turn in the third round.

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#26 Most Relevant | Christian Petracca

Read Time:7 Minute, 12 Second

Last years clear #1 forward in Christian Petracca is now available as a midfielder in 2021. But could he be the perfect unique for your starting squad?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Christian Petracca
Age: 25
Club: Melbourne Demons
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
109 Vs North Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
160 Vs North Melbourne (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
110 Vs Geelong | AFLFantasy (2018)
160 Vs North Melbourne | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
86.4 (AFLFantasy) | 108 (Adjusted Average)
117.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $631,400
AFLFantasy Price: $825,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $797,900

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Miracles do happen! For years fantasy footy coaches haven been waiting for the breakout of Christian Petracca and in 2020 he certainly took his game to elite levels.

The cause for his fantasy footy breakout was the moving of CP5 into a full blown midfield role and not the split half forward and midfield time he’d previously held.

In 2020 he increased his possessions up five per game from the previous season to 23. Across the league, he ranked 4th for total contested possessions, 6th for score involvements, 12th for indie ’50s.

Last year he was the clear top choice in SuperCoach where he scored 200 points more than any other forward. He also finished the season as the highest averaging forward. Last year he scored 13 tons, 9 of them over 130 and dipped beneath 80 just once. His seasonal average of 117 was a clear personal best.

In AFLFantasy and DreamTeam he was always the leading forward by averages and total points. His 86.4 (adjusted 108) average consisted of him scoring 2 tons, 5 additional scores between 90-99 plus four extra scores over 80. Across the 2020 season, he had just two scores below 73 all year, and if you want to understand it based on the adjusted scoring (of x 1.25), then his lowest score of the year was an 86.

Given that he’s now a midfielder only, it’s important to understand his scoring strength in contrast to all players, not just forwards. In SuperCoach he ranked 7th for both total points and averages in the entire competition. That ranks him higher than popular 2021 picks in Patrick Cripps, Tom Mitchell and Patrick Dangerfield. While for AFLFantasy he ranked 11th for total points and 18th for average.

Christian Petracca ticks all the fantasy scoring boxes prospective owners are looking for. He boasts a strong scoring ceiling. His floor is respectable, and he scores through multiple avenues. Making it difficult for him to be shut down by opposition teams. The unheralded ‘cherry on the top’ for Petracca is his availability.

Since the start of 2017, he’s played 98.7% of games available. In short, he’s missed just one game in the previous four seasons.

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MY TAKE

Whenever a player losses DPP, fantasy coaches bail away from them. It’s why it’s important to contrast Christian Petracca to last years other key midfielders. Based on total points, he finished 8th among all midfielders and 5th in SuperCoach.

But what was the cause of the greater scoring increase? The majority of the reasoning was due to his adjusted role. Rather than being just a bit player through the midfield, he became ‘the guy’ for Melbourne through the midfield.

The shorter quarters didn’t hurt his scoring, but to imply it’s the main factor it spiked upwards is a misinformed opinion. His time on the ground actually rose from 88% to 89%. Like every player in SuperCoach, last year the weighting of points rewarded players who impacted the game and in 2020 Trac certainly did that.

Entering into 2021 the restrictions around interchanges and the extended back to full quarters should see his scoring at the very least hold. For multiple years Christian has shown how damaging he can be in the forward line. And spending a few minutes per quarter to ‘rest’ spells danger for opposition defender.

If you were to target him as a starting squad player at his price point, you need him to at minimum hold his average for the season. If by seasons end he drops to being just a 100 AFLFanasty player and 110 SuperCoach that’s a poor return. So how can behold his scoring, let alone improve?

I believe there are two key areas for him. Firstly, he ranked third in the league for turnovers per game. If he can sharpen up this area of the game, in SuperCoach he’ll have gone one step closer to improving his scoring potential.

The other is around the overall success of the team. Last year in AFLFantasy he averaged 12 points per game (15 adjusted) more in wins than losses while in SuperCoach it was a whopping 28.

Whether the Demons win because Christian scores well, or they win because he plays well is something of a deeper discussion. If you believe the Demons are destined for finals in 2021, then he might edge himself further up the pecking order in your side.

Picking multiple premium midfielders this year with confidence is harder than ever before. Last year’s top performer Lachie Neale is so expensive, and it was such a spike from last year many in the community believe regression is inevitable. Jack Steele was amazing, but they’ve added Brad Crouch who win fit is a 30 disposal player per game.

Adam Treloar has added to an already stacked midfield for Jack Macrae and Marcus Bontempelli. Josh Kelly and Nat Fyfe are guns and can’t get through a full season, while Tom Mitchell and Patrick Cripps are coming off some surgery in the offseason.

Christian Petracca has zero concerns over role. Melbourne have not made any major additions to their midfield and neither does he have injury concerns. A case can be made that he’s one of the safer premiums in the midfield this season.

The major objective for me to squeeze Christian into my starting squad is the bye round (14) he finds himself in. His demons share it along with Adelaide, Collingwood, Fremantle, St Kilda and Sydney. In the midfield that’s not horrific for your best 18 on the field. With likely only Matt Crouch, Clayton Oliver, Nat Fyfe, Taylor Adams and Jack Steele the popular midfield options. But where do you rank him alongside these guys? I don’t believe the midfield alone is the headache.

Rather it’s the other lines that could cause you major pain in that round. Arguably four of the best ruck options come from this round. Max Gawn, Brodie Grundy, Reilly O’Brien and DPP Rowan Marshall. So unless we have a rookie ruck that emerges most coaches will find themselves down to needing to field 18 from the final 20 on-field positions.

Throw in the backs of Rory Laird, Jack Crisp, Jake Lloyd, Luke Ryan or the forwards of Rowan Marshall or Isaac Heeney, and if coaches aren’t careful, they could struggle to field 16. Yes, it’s only for one round, but you can undo three months of good scoring and be overtaken in one poor week.

For me to select Christian Petracca, he doesn’t have to prove anything in the preseason. Rather, I’ll need an increasing range of doubts on other premiums’ role and injuries to force me into starting with him. He’s certainly an upgrade target and a player I’ll be keeping a keen eye on in 2021.

DRAFT DECISION

In 2021 I believe we’ll see the least number of midfielders selected in the first round on the draft day. Midfielders like Christian Petracca will probably drop back 5-10 spots later than usual. I’d happily select Trac as my M2, knowing he’s good enough to surge into an M1 scoring range.

I don’t see him going inside the first 20 selections so that a coach could get a nice reward in the third or fourth round.

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#27 Most Relevant | Elliot Yeo

Read Time:5 Minute, 46 Second

Elliot Yeo has been a dependable and consistent premium for multiple years. However, an injury derailed his 2020 season. Can he bounce back for us in 2021?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Elliot Yeo
Age: 27
Club: West Coast Eagles
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
104 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy)
121 Vs Sydney (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
152 Vs Fremantle | AFLFantasy (2017)
150 Vs Gold Coast | SuperCoach (2018)

2020 Average:
71.2 (AFLFantasy) | 89 (Adjusted Average)
89.9 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $483,000
AFLFantasy Price: $679,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $657,400

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2020 was a frustrating season for West Coast and specifically Elliot Yeo. After missing only two games over the previous three seasons having Yeo play just 10 games was a huge disappointment. His absence in the back half of the season was certainly noticed, and the club’s finals campgain could’ve ended differently had he played.

The cause of injury was an ongoing groin complaint that ultimately ended his season despite multiple play attempts. Every game he did play, Elliot was under increasing physical duress as he tried valiantly to play.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 71.5 (adjusted 89) and scored 1 ton and had 6 additional scores between 67-80. If you want to play the ‘adjusted averages scores’ then that’s a scoring range between 83-100.

SuperCoach was a more positive result. He scored a ton in 5 of his 10 matches, had just 2 scores below 70 and ended the season with an average of 89.9.

As the year went on, it was just obvious that his ongoing groin issue was impacting his ability to get around the ground. The Eagles tried to rest him up for finals, but eventually, they couldn’t get him back and took a long term approach in the hope to get him right for 2021 and beyond.

Before 2020, he’d been a durable and consistent performer. If Yeo can return to his 2019 or his personal best the year of 2018, there are almost 20 points per game available in SuperCoach and 15 in AFLFantasy.

His 2019 season consisted of 21 games, and in SuperCoach he averaged 107. He posted 12 tons, five of them over 120 and only dipped his scoring beneath 80 in just two matches. For AFLFantasy he averaged 102, scored 11 tons and had just 3 scores under 80 all year.

2018 was a similar story, except he played all 22 games that year. In SuperCoach he averaged 107 (again) scored tons in 15 matches, and 7 were over 120. In AFLFantasy, he averaged 106 registered 14 tons with 6 of these above 120.

Over the last three seasons, Elliot Yeo has played 53 home and away games. In that time he’s scored 32 SuperCoach, on average that’s a ton in 60% of games played. While in AFLFantasy he’s scored a ton in 51% of games over the previous 3 seasons. It’s not Tom Mitchell, Lachie Neale or Jack Macrae type frequency, but for what you are paying there aren’t many who can compete with that scoring level.

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MY TAKE

The return to full health of Elliot Yeo is a key in the Eagles premiership hopes. In the midfield of the Eagles, they have the outside endurance king with Andrew Gaff. They possess dynamic XFactor with Luke Shuey and Tim Kelly, while Dom Sheed and Jack Redden are important role players. But none of them can replicate the importance of Yeo to that midfield unit. His work defensively around the ground, his aerial ability and hulking frame make him the perfect complimentary piece to this midfield core.

Elliot Yeo and potential owners’ biggest concern isn’t his scoring potential or having us receive a great return on investment. The issue is that he’s still not back into full preseason work.

He is still returning from his groin injury (aka OP) and is yet to start participating in the full running drills. With the AAMI community series just weeks away that starts to become concerning if he’s not playing in these games, you need to rule him out as a starting squad candidate.

That doesn’t make him irrelevant for the year, not at all. While Yeo is closer to being a 100-105 midfielder than 110+ his past few years shows us that he’s capable of going on 6-8 week stretches where he averages north of 115. As an in-season trade, if you can time the run correctly, you’ll get a high volume return on a low financial investment.

He’s not the 110+ guy. Rather he’s a seasonal 105 option – However, he does have a ceiling. If he gets off to a hot start, he’ll give you strong value return.

I currently have Yeo on my preseason watchlist. If he can have a faultless rest of the preseason, play in the community series and move freely then he’s got 15-20 points of value in him. And he’s good enough to be a M8 by seasons end. If not, then he’ll on the watchlist as trade target for midseason.

DRAFT DECISION

Where Elliot Yeo goes on your draft day will be determined by 2 things. One when you host it in contrast to the season starting. And secondly, how Yeo is travelling.

I believe this season that if you don’t land some quality forwards in the draft early in 2020, you could be in trouble. This year given the lack of depth in this line, we might prioritize them more than usual.

Because of this, a player of Yeo’s scoring potential regardless of injury concerns, will slide later than he has for the past few seasons.

If you really want to own him, you’ll probably have to use an M3 position on him. However, that’s ‘worst’ case scenario in terms of how early he goes. What’s more likely is he’s an M4 off the board, maybe even 5 if people have low confidence in his body.

Personally, I’d love to take him at M4, and then support this pick by drafting an extra midfield bench depth spot incase he struggles early on.

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#28 Most Relevant | Tom Stewart

Read Time:6 Minute, 15 Second

If you have owned Tom Stewart at any point in the past two seasons, you’ll have been thrilled with his scoring. He looks set to be another top tier scoring defensive premium in 2021.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Stewart
Age: 27
Club: Geelong Cats
Position: Defender

2020 Highest Score:
110 Vs Collingwood (AFLFantasy)
151 Vs Collingwood (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
124 Vs West Coast | AFLFantasy (2019)
151 Vs Collingwood | SuperCoach 2020()

2020 Average:
77.1 (AFLFantasy) | 96.3 (Adjusted Average)
100.1 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $538,000
AFLFantasy Price: $736,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $711,700

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT

The 2020 AFL season didn’t end the way Tom Stewart and his Geelong Cats would’ve liked, but for fantasy footy coaches it was another strong season from the multiple time All Australian.

For SuperCoach last season Stewart ended the year ranked 10th by averages for all defenders. His year started strong with scores of 100, 119 & 84 before an in game injury against Melbourne saw him miss the next few matches.

Even with missing three full games through injury (it was closer to four given how early he busted his shoulder) he still outscored Jack Lukosious and Dan Houston, who played every game and had ownership of over 10% by seasons conclusions.

Stewart wrapped up his SuperCoach season with just 2 scores below 84, one of those was his injury game. Also, the last 7 games of the year saw him score 7 consecutive tons and averaged 111.

In AFLFantasy only four players had a higher average than Tom Stewart. As impressive as that is, it’s actually quite misleading. One of those was Jeremy Howe playing just four games, while Alex Witherden was another but he too only played a handful of matches.

In reality, it’s really only Jake Lloyd and Rory Laird who ended 2020 with a higher average. Additionally he ranked 21st for total points. Not bad for a player who missed almost 20% of the season.

His average of 77.1 (adjusted 96) consisted of one ton, three additional scores between 90-99 and five further scores over 80. Removing his injury impacted game his scoring dipped below 80 in just 5 games. With 80 being the 100 of 2020, that’s some impressive consistency from Tom.

Just like in SuperCoach, Stewart stormed home with his scoring and was a perfect low cost for those who got him on the cheap due to his injury impacted game. His final 7 games he scored 76 (95) , 84 (105) , 84 (105) , 99 (124), 102 (127), 91 (114) & 80 (100). A seven game average of 88 (adjusted 110.)

Removing a players ‘injury affected’ scores to highlight a seasonal average can sometimes dilute the reality of a players scoring. However, when it happens inside the opening few minutes of a game, I’m more comfortable with it. Removing that injury impacted game would mean his seasonal averages read as a 106.46 in SuperCoach and 81.7 (adjusted 102) in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.

2020 while being his career high SuperCoach season, it’s far from an outlier of scoring consistency and ceiling. During the 2019 season, he finished the season with the second-most points behind Jake Lloyd. He had the seventh-highest averages (98.2) of all defenders and scored at an average of 1.2 points per minute. He had eight scores of 100 or higher scores from his twenty-two games, three of which were 120 or above.

For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam Tom Stewart also had a phenomenal season. He was ranked the fourth-best with only Jake Lloyd, Rory Laird and Jack Crisp scoring above him for total points of defenders. While for averages he ranked sixth. Across the season he posted eight tons including three that were 110 or higher. His scoring consistency was also on display in this format with only two scores below 80 all season and a seasonal low of 73.

We now have multiple years of consistent scoring premium seasons from Stewart. Yet, his name has barely been uttered as a starting squad candidate. Sometimes in the fantasy footy community, we spend our time chasing the flashy new breakout candidate at the expense of taking something dependable. That’s not wrong to do, but with a player of Stewart’s reliability and scoring capacity it’s criminal the lack of preseason discussion around him.]

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MY TAKE

When selecting a premium on any line, you want to ensure that they deliver quality scoring from the opening round. With Geelong playing Adelaide round one, Tom Stewart owners should be frothing.

Last year the Crows were one of the easiest teams for defenders to score against. Yes, Adelaide did improve as the season went on, but the entries inside forward 50 weren’t great. It’s the perfect storm. An intercept defender playing against an inaccurate and developing side and he also takes kick-outs. It’s a promising start. Last year he scored 117 in SuperCoach & 84 (105 adjusted) in AFLFantasy.

Why are people choosing to pass on Stewart? Recast your eye over some of the scoring I highlighted earlier. He has a strong scoring ceiling, high basement and is generally durable. Honestly, the main reason is he’s not the flashy pick of Rory Laird, Lachie Whitfield or Jake Lloyd. Neither is he a value pick. What you’ll pay for with him is what you’ll get.

Barring injury in all game formats, I project him to be a top 5 averaging player this season. It’s for that reason I’d certainly consider him as a genuine unique for starting squads. While others are ‘zigging’ for the popular picks, you could zag and get yourself a solid start.

He’s a strong candidate for starting squads, but for me Tom Stewart is an upgrade target. For me the defining factor is his bye round. He has his bye round in week 12. His Cats share the week off with Suns, Hawks, Port, Roos and Giants. Honestly, beyond Nick Haynes, there aren’t too many defensive premium options.

At some stage, you’ll want him in your squad. And whether it’s an upgrade or starting squad, I think owners will be satisfied for the entirety of time they own him.

DRAFT DECISION

The ‘Three L’s’ of defence in Rory Laird, Lachie Whitfield and Jake Lloyd will all be gone in many leagues inside the first 15-20 selections. If you miss out on one of these three, I’d still happily have Tom Stewart as my D1. I see him going off draft boards anywhere from the third round through til the early fifth all dependant on peoples preferences.

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