Tag: Caleb Serong

#19 Most Relevant | Caleb Serong

Discover why Fremantle Dockers’ Caleb Serong is a must-consider pick for your AFLFantasy & SuperCoach lineups in 2023 as we delve into his scoring potential, growth areas, and strategic value ahead of the season. Learn how Serong’s leadership role, fixture advantages, and resilience against tags can elevate your fantasy football strategy, making him a pivotal selection for achieving bye-round balance and maximizing points.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Caleb Serong epitomizes the heart and soul of the Fremantle Dockers’ midfield with his relentless style of play and significant importance to the team. Known for his fierce competitiveness and exceptional ability to win contested possessions, Serong has quickly established himself as a cornerstone of the Dockers’ engine room.

His tenacity at stoppages and his knack for clearances allow Fremantle to transition from defence to attack efficiently, making him a critical player in shaping the game’s tempo and momentum. Beyond his physical attributes, Serong’s football IQ stands out, with his decision-making under pressure and skill execution contributing significantly to the team’s offensive strategies.

Despite his relatively young age, his leadership qualities inspire his teammates and exemplify the Dockers’ hard work and determination ethos. Serong’s role extends beyond mere ball-getting; he embodies the spirit and future direction of the Fremantle Dockers, making him an indispensable figure within the squad.

Serong’s statistical performance over the past season underscores his exceptional contribution to the Fremantle Dockers and his rising stature within the AFL. His remarkable ability to dominate at the coalface of the game saw him rank within the top 5 league-wide for several key midfield indicators: centre clearances, contested possessions, disposals, and stoppage clearances per game.

This highlights his prowess in winning the ball under pressure and his capacity to drive his team’s midfield dynamics, making him one of the most effective players in the league in these critical areas.

Moreover, Serong’s influence extended beyond his ball-winning abilities, as evidenced by his ranking within the top 10 for clearances, goal assists, and handballs. This reflects his broader impact on the Dockers’ play, showcasing his vision and ability to contribute to scoring opportunities for his teammates and his skill in distributing the ball effectively under pressure.

Serong’s statistical achievements from the season paint a picture of a player who is central to Fremantle’s midfield operations and instrumental in facilitating the team’s offensive strategies. His comprehensive impact across various facets of the game underscores his value to the Dockers and affirms his status as one of the premier midfielders in the competition.

Caleb Serong’s significant impact on the field for the Fremantle Dockers translated seamlessly into exceptional fantasy football scoring, making him a standout option in both AFLFantasy and SuperCoach formats.

In AFLFantasy, Serong’s impressive average of 108 points per game was bolstered by his consistency and high-scoring capabilities; he notched up 17 tons throughout the season, with six scores surpassing the 120-point mark. A testament to his reliability was his ability to maintain a scoring floor, never dropping below 80 points in any game. This remarkable consistency earned him a place among the elite, ranking 12th for total points scored and 13th for averages overall, highlighting his indispensable value to fantasy football coaches.

SuperCoach further underscored Serong’s fantasy prowess, where he averaged 111.2 points. His performance included 16 tons, with eight going above 120 points, showcasing his potential for high-scoring outputs. Serong’s scoring resilience was evident, with only a single instance falling below the 80-point threshold. His solid record placed him 17th for total points scored and averages across the league, marking him as a premium midfield option for SuperCoach players.

In his 2022 season, he started slowly as he had an interrupted preseason with a knee injury. Eventually, he succumbed to it and missed a few games. Despite this, Serong still elevated his game to some strong new levels. He ended the year ranked inside the top twenty of the league for stoppage clearances, handbells, contested possessions and clearances per game.

The breakout trends for Serong were visible over his entire AFL career, and in 2022, he started to take further steps towards what we have seen he’d become. In that year’s AFL fantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he scored seven, including 112, 113 & a season-high 126. In SuperCoach, he scored eight tons, four above 110, including 117, 119 & 127.

Following a breakout year that saw him ascend to the upper echelons of AFL midfielders, Caleb Serong is poised to elevate his game even further. His impressive performance last season, characterized by dominance in key statistical areas and significant fantasy football scoring, sets the stage for Serong to build on his achievements and continue his upward trajectory.

With a solid foundation of skills, including contested possession winning, clearance work, and impactful scoring, Serong has demonstrated the talent and work ethic necessary to enhance his contributions to the Fremantle Dockers. As he enters the next phase of his career, the anticipation around his potential to become one of the premier midfielders in the league is palpable. Serong’s readiness to take the next step in his game promises exciting prospects for his personal development. It signifies his growing importance to his team’s success and the broader AFL landscape.

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MY TAKE

Caleb Serong enters the fantasy football conversation not just as a strong scorer but as a player with potential areas for growth that could elevate his game even further. His current scoring prowess is commendable, yet the potential for improvement in disposal efficiency, increased impact on the scoreboard, and an uptick in possessions or tackles suggests we’ve yet to see Serong’s ceiling. Additionally, natural progression and development, inherent to young talents in the AFL, promise to boost his fantasy output.

Serong can further emphasize his importance to your team using the Vice Captain loophole. The Dockers’ scheduling, with most games played on early weekends before the round 13 bye, is crucial for fantasy strategy. This allows coaches to capitalize on Serong’s ceiling scoring through the Vice Captain loophole in formats that permit it, offering a strategic advantage in maximizing points.

The round 13 bye itself holds structural significance for fantasy lineups. Fremantle’s positioning in the bye rounds means players from the club, including Serong, become strategically valuable. They provide continuity through the early bye rounds and the subsequent larger batch, helping maintain team performance during these critical periods of the fantasy season.

Despite being a potential target for opposition tags, as seen in round one last year against St Kilda, Serong’s scoring floor has remained solid even when faced with such challenges. Early fixtures may see him encounter tags again, yet his resilience and ability to still contribute value scores highlight his reliability as a fantasy option.

The return of Nat Fyfe to the midfield poses questions about its impact on Serong’s role. However, it’s anticipated that Serong, Hayden Young, and Andy Brayshaw will remain the Dockers’ primary midfield options. Fyfe’s integration will likely see him as a rotational player, suggesting a minimal impact on Serong’s scoring potential.

Interestingly, when Hayden Young transitioned into the midfield, Serong’s averages in AFLFantasy and SuperCoach showed no significant deviation from his year-round performance. This stability underscores Serong’s scoring resilience despite slight team role adjustments.

Given the strategic advantage of the Round 13 bye, fantasy coaches are evaluating the inclusion of Fremantle’s premium midfielders, including Serong, Andy Brayshaw, and Port Adelaide’s Zak Butters and Connor Rozee. Coaches are encouraged to assess and rank these players based on projected scoring and bye-round balance.

This analysis will help determine whether Serong fits as a starting squad member or an upgrade target during the season. His proven performance, captaincy consideration, and the structural benefits of Fremantle’s bye round position him as a compelling consideration for fantasy football teams, offering immediate impact and strategic flexibility.

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DRAFT DECISION

Caleb Serong’s emergence as a key player for the Fremantle Dockers and his fantasy football potential reflect his growing importance and impact in the AFL. His draft ranking as an M1 in AFLFantasy signifies his role as a premier midfield option, capable of delivering consistent, high-scoring performances. This status is a testament to his on-field contributions, particularly in contested possessions, clearances, and his ability to impact the scoreboard. For fantasy coaches strategizing their draft, Serong represents a robust choice to anchor their midfield, offering reliability and the potential for game-changing scores.

However, the depth of midfield talent in AFLFantasy means Serong might be considered an M2 for some teams, particularly if coaches prioritize securing other midfielders with their initial picks. This strategy could see Serong slide slightly in the draft order, not due to any shortfall in his capabilities but because of the midfield’s wealth of options and individual coaches’ tactical approaches.

In SuperCoach, where scoring can often accentuate the impact of midfielders who excel in contests and clearances, Serong is positioned as an M2. This ranking reflects his proven ability to rack up significant points and the competitive nature of midfield selections in SuperCoach drafts. The expectation that he would be gone by the third round indicates the coaches’ high regard for his scoring potential and his role at Fremantle. This also suggests that while Serong is highly valued, the sheer volume of midfield talent across the AFL means that some coaches might secure other options before turning to Serong, depending on their draft strategy and the specific scoring nuances of SuperCoach.

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Upgrade Targets After The Bye | Round 13

One week of the multi-bye rounds is over. We now have four teams with no more scheduled rests for the remainder of the season. Here’s a club-by-club breakdown of potential upgrade targets who have had their bye-round.

Since landing at Brisbane, one of the reliable scoring premium midfielders in the game is Lachie Neale. In SuperCoach, he’s consistently averaging over 110+ and above 100+ in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. He’s been a little patchy over the season, but before the week off, he had started to turn the corner with his scoring consistency. In his previous three weeks, he’s scored 103, 117 & 100 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 109, 128 & 122 in SuperCoach.

He’s dropped about $100k on his starting price in SuperCoach and is always a play in that format. However, I’m a big fan of the play in AFLFantasy. Priced at $829,000, he’s got plenty of upside. With a fixture of Hawthorn & Sydney straight off the bye, he may cop a pair of tags, but it opens up massively afterwards. From rounds 15-17, the Lions play St Kilda, Richmond and West Coast, three of the best matchups for midfielders. Every chance, within five weeks, he’s gone up $100k and averaged north of 110.

Based on that fixture, some might be tempted to look at Hugh McCluggage, especially in AFLFantasy, where a multiple-week stretch might be a consideration. Priced at under $750k and with a history of being able to average 100, it’s one to consider. I’d be cautious. The midfield mix of the Lions has changed with the arrival of Will Ashcroft and Josh Dunkley, and his role has seen him fade into a more regular wing role with minimal centre-bounce attendance. It’s got serious risk associated, given he’s only really popped one decent score for the year, but I can understand the consideration for coaches looking for a possible value play.

The vast majority of the fantasy community already owns Josh Dunkley. I dubbed him the most relevant player for the coming year in the preseason. While he hasn’t been as prolific as many had hoped, he’s still been one of the best forwards across the formats and has been a more than solid starting squad plays of the year. For the rare few that don’t own him, you’ve probably missed the boat trading into him, as it was a month into the year that was the right time to ‘buy low.’

Injury is never a good thing, but what it can do is create opportunity. And with Sean Darcy suffering a hamstring injury, it likely forces Fremantle to play Luke Jackson as the #1 ruck. So how does Luke go when the clear #1 ruck? It’s a very limited sample size and an entirely different team. However, last year he played one game without Max Gawn and scored 125 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 122 for SuperCoach. Getting three games like that over the byes without Darcy could be a game-changer.

Over the previous few weeks on our weekly strategy roundtable podcasts, you’ve heard MiniMonk often speak about the importance of versatility and value of an RUC/FWD DPP like Darcy Cameron. Another option (all be in more of a limited run through the byes) is Luke. At the very least, he’s a play to ponder.

After a quiet start to the season, Andrew Brayshaw is averaged 110 for the year but going at 122 in his last five for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. Over in SuperCoach, he’s averaging 104 for the year but 119.2 since round seven. The early season injury niggles well past him, and he’s now back to his 2022 scoring best. He’s no longer that bargain he was a month ago, but he should still be an option to look at. Over the next month, the Dockers play Richmond, GWS, Essendon & Bulldogs. None of these teams run tags and has shown tendencies to let in/out players like Andy score well. Don’t be shocked if he’s not in the top 2-3 points scorers over the season’s final few months.

Six rounds into the year, people that had started with Hayden Young were targeting him as a trade-out option at the byes. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 81; in SuperCoach, he averaged 85 and had only one ton in the first six weeks across all formats. However, over the previous five weeks, he’s started to deliver the premium scores that have meant he’s now genuinely on the radar for all coaches off the bye. Since round seven, he’s averaged 102 in SuperCoach, scored three tons and nothing under 86. Over in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s averaging 100 in his last five, scored three tons and dropped his score under 98 just once.

Hayden’s price point is now back to where it was at the start of the season, which means he still presents a level of value. What’s the cause of scoring? The Dockers have started funnelling their defensive rebound through him more than Luke Ryan. What should provide a level of comfort for this is that the Dockers have won four of the last five games and have started returning to the winning form of 2022. Only the club would truly know whether it’s causation or correlation, but the two elements look linked from the outside. Beyond Nick Daicos, Jordan Dawson and James Sicily, no premium defenders are regularly banging the door down with big scores across formats—a genuine play.

If Young isn’t interested, maybe you’re more of a Luke Ryan fan. He’s having a career season averaging 99 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 110 in SuperCoach. He’s not been as prolific over the past three weeks, but he’s still a play. His scoring is almost doing the reverse of what Hayden Young is doing. Their prices are relatively comparable across formats, so I’d probably lean more towards Hayden unless you want both.

One of the breakout picks of the year has been Caleb Serong. Congratulations to every coach that jumped on early. The good news is, he’s shown it wasn’t just a hot stretch to start the year; he’s now done it for three months. Equally important is he’s scored well with Brayshaw performing well, too, meaning he’s not just getting the ‘upside’ of when Andy was struggling to be at his peak. If you want to get the most out of the Dockers fixture but can’t spend the $ to get up to Brayshaw, then Serong is certainly a ‘haircut’ to strong view.

It’s not an upgrade, but two Dockers could help generate cash. Sam Sturt is a chance to get a few games should Sean Darcy miss multiple matches with his hamstring injury. They’re far from ‘like for like replacements, but structurally, Sturt at 189cm adds another dimension to the forward line.

The big one, especially for SuperCoach, is Nat Fyfe. Priced at under $250k, he’s just over the price tag of a cash cow. There is no risk in trading into him at this price point. He’s priced as a glorified cash cow. Every week Nat’s looked better, and to get a player with his historical pedigree at this price point is a steal. At best, he becomes an on-field premium. At worst, he’s a trade going down with an injury. He is likely somewhere in the middle. Meaning he provides depth and flexibility across your benches once the byes end. Nobody is a must-have trade, but Fyfe is mighty close to it. 

The man of steal, Jack Steele, has yet to be at his prolific scoring best in 2023. A combination of some niggling injuries and occasional mid-game role changes has seen the St Kilda skipper only show glimpses of his fantasy pedigree. For Jack, the week off couldn’t have come at a better time as it allowed some much-needed recovery time.

Anyone with a history of monster scoring like Jack must be considered. Next week is the optimal moving time to get him. That way, you get a week of visibility to watch him play & see if he resembles his old self while also managing his breakeven dip. Now is the right time to do it; as important as getting value for money is, points are the name of the game. This week St Kilda takes on the Swans. In his last three, Steele has scored 139, 124 & 137 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 125, 115 & 140 in SuperCoach. If he scores like that, you’ll care little about another $20k differential in price dip.

I do not love the defenders this year. Beyond Jordan Dawson, Nick Daicos, James Sicily and probably Sam Docherty, you could argue that no premium defender is worth paying up big dollars for. However, despite not living up to the dizzying heights of last year, Jack Sinclair is still a viable acquisition. He’s shown multiple games of 110+ and has matches against Sydney, Richmond, Brisbane & West Coast. Three of those matchups are quite favourable for defenders and midfielders. Jack could well fly off the back of the bye.

Brad Crouch in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam has shown a scoring pedigree. In 2022, he averaged 106.4 and was among the best midfielder premiums in the game. Even this year, he was averaging 113 over the first five matches. He’s cheap, given his historical performance, but it’s his ownership percentage that’d be more appealing as a team differentiator than anything else.

Only a few coaches should need to trade into ruckmen this week. Last round, we had multiple options present, so if you were an owner of an injured Sean Darcy, you could’ve got into Tim English, Darcy Cameron or Kieren Briggs. For those who held, you are probably not playing rankings focus but making leagues your priority. As such, there is a little world where people need a ruck; if you do this week, then Rowan Marshall is a viable play.

One of the keys to fantasy success, especially when trading into players, is to ensure your maximising the ‘upgrade’ with the first week of the trade. It’s why Jake Lloyd, who has arguably one of the best matchups this week, should be a trade consideration for coaches looking to beef out their backlines. All year the Saints have been fantastic matchups for defenders. Jake historically has been one of the best premiums, and while not as prolific as in previous years, he’s still been good this year.

He’s currently ranked seventh for defenders in SuperCoach and tenth in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam by averages. Additionally, he’s coming off the back of his season-high score, a 123 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and a 139 in SuperCoach. If you want to beef up the backline this week, then Lloyd needs to be a consideration.

Over the past five weeks, Chad Warner has been firing and delivering premium midfield numbers. He’s averaging 107.2 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 114.8 in SuperCoach since round seven. Interestingly this scoring boost happened with Mills still in the team, so it’s not just the departure of Callum that’s created a scoring boost. He doesn’t have the greatest scoring history against recent opponents. But given he’s played less than 50 games of AFL, I’m not too concerned. On current trends, the Swans have a favourable fixture matchup for midfielders. Chad’s an ‘impact’ over ‘volume’ footballer, so while he’s a consideration in AFLFantasy and DreamTeam, historically, it’s SuperCoach that his scoring has been at his peak.

It’s not flashy, but some will be looking at Nick Blakey off the back of scoring 114 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 125 before the bye week. I don’t hate the move, but it feels like your jumping on for a short time at a cheaper price point and wanting to get an overperformance that historically has only sometimes been there. Sometimes taking a haircut on a premium is a good play. I’m not sold it; it’s the right play for everyone. But it’s something to consider and ponder.

Sydney skipper Callum Mills is still anywhere from one to three weeks away from returning from his calf injury, according to the latest injury update. As a result, he’s not a trade this week but someone we should be keeping some space for. When he’s back, the Swans key position stocks will be replenished. This should result in a more permanent move back to the midfield. In doing so, he could be one of the year’s bargains.

Normally Luke Parker would feature here, but with him being suspended this week, he’s not someone to look at for this round.

Five weeks ago, I knew plenty of coaches were looking at Errol Gulden as a trade-out option. To that point in the year, he’d been fine but hadn’t delivered anything that resembled what we saw in the preseason. However, since round seven, he’s been amazing. Over the past five weeks in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s averaging 127.4, with only Tim Taranto averaging more in the previous five-game cycle. While in SuperCoach during that stretch of time, he’s averaging 124 and is one of only ten players with a five-week cycle over 120.

Errol’s already incredibly highly owned, but he is highly desirable for non-owners, not just for his scoring or to minimise the potential burn against their team. But because he’s a premium forward that’s playing in round fifteen. Beyond Gulden and Josh Dunkley, few premium forwards in any format are available to play in round fifteen. So for these reasons, targeting Errol might be essential over the next few weeks.

#34 Most Relevant | Caleb Serong

Since he walked into the AFL, the fantasy community has been waiting for the premium season of Caleb Serong. He’s shown as glimpses over the past few seasons, is 2023 the year he puts it all together? 

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Caleb Serong
Age: 21
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score: 
126 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy)
128 Vs Collingwood (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
135 Vs West Coast | AFLFantasy (2021)
143 Vs North Melbourne | SuperCoach (2021)

2022 Average: 
87.7 (AFLFantasy)
90.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $498,800
AFLFantasy Price: $777,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $796,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Over the past few seasons, the Fremantle Dockers have drafted incredibly well and secured some elite high-end talent. One of those is midfielder Caleb Serong. Ever since he broke into the side in 2020, the eventual rising star winner has shown glimpses of his potential in numerous seasons.

His 2022 season started slowly as he had an interrupted preseason with a knee injury. Eventually, he succumbed to it and missed a few games. Despite this, Serong still elevated his game to some strong new levels. He ended the year ranked inside the top twenty of the league for stoppage clearances, handbells, contested possessions and clearances per game.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he scored seven, including 112, 113 & a season-high 126. He had seven games where he scored below 80, but four came in his first five games where he was working his way through his injury niggle. In SuperCoach, he scored eight tons, four above 110, including 117, 119 & 127. He also dipped seven times under 80, but like in AFLFantasy, four were in the opening five weeks. While not ideal, having this many sub-80 scores is quite common for younger players. The potential upside here is that if he can lift his scoring basement, let alone pop his ceiling frequency, he can reach a triple-digit average.

Whenever you’re looking at a breakout candidate like Serong, you’re looking for pockets of scoring to provide you confidence that they can score like a premium. He had six weeks last year between rounds 8-13, averaging 102.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 109.3 in SuperCoach. If he can maintain scoring like that for the 2023 season, he’ll not just push the line of a top-ten midfielder, but it could be a competition-winning pick.

For the two previous seasons, in 2020 and 2021, we saw more glimpses of his scoring pedigree. He averaged 82.8 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and scored five tons. In SuperCoach, he averaged 92.3 and scored seven tons. However, his final three games of the season caught the fantasy community’s attention. He scored 118, 117, & 116 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 115, 135, and 103 in SuperCoach.
He’s shown potential in glimpses over multiple stretches of games over multiple seasons. However, the opportunity for Serong to elevate himself to premium midfield status is ahead of him, and he’s a strong chance to become one.

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MY TAKE

After that strong scoring trio of tons to end the 2021 season, Caleb Serong entered 2022 with plenty of expectation that he would finally break out. Although we saw pockets of it as the season went on, his poor start due to the knee complaint ruined the hype surrounding him. When a player is hyped in the community and they ‘fail’, it creates a smell on them that’s hard to shake. The positive for prospective owners is that, arguably, Serong is better placed now than he was twelve months ago to transition into premium midfield averages.

In the offseason, the Dockers had three significant changes in their midfield. First, the retirement of David Mundy. Even in his last season, he attended 65% of centre bounces of the club. Second is the departure of wingmen Blake Acres to Carlton. And lastly, the addition of Jaeger O’Meara from Hawthorn. But do these movements affect the role or scoring forecast for Serong?

Ultimately, we’ll get these answers as the preseason continues, but my immediate response is that the three changes don’t negatively impact him. Earlier in the article, we highlighted that his statistical strength is around when contested footy and in clearances. Fremantle will not push him out to a wing. Their offensive and defensive midfield look stronger with him at centre bounces and stoppages around the ground.

One of the most obvious reasons to overlook Serong is the high volume of comparably priced options. Luke Davies-Uniacke, Tom Green, Adam Cerra, Jai Newcombe and Chad Warner are within a few grand of his price point. Even former #1 draft pick Lachie Whitfield is in that pricing space. Looking at all these names, you can build a compelling case for why you should select them. All are capable of elevating themselves to the next level. In the cases of Green, Cerra & Newcombe, it’s about opportunity & responsibility in the midfield. For Whitfield, it’s about the drive to prove himself as one of the best players in the league under the new coach. While for LDU & Warner, it’s the evolution of being their sides bright young stars and becoming the #1 option.

What’s the upside narrative for Serong? It’s about the early fixture for the Dockers. Over the opening six weeks of the season, they play St Kilda (A), North Melbourne (H), West Coat (H), Adelaide (A), Gold Coast (H) and Western Bulldogs (H). That runs both in teams, and the venue cannot get much tastier.

If you play AFLFantasy, Serong needs to be genuinely considered. The key will be to set scoring benchmarks over the first two-three weeks. If he fails to deliver, pivot quickly to the flying stepping stone. If he nails it, he does have the capacity to transform into your M8 by the conclusion of the season. Remember, often, the first 4-6 trades you make in this format are correctional moves.

In SuperCoach, he does get hurt by his disposal efficiency. The upside is that it means he’ll never get tagged. But any points lost through poor ball use are offset by his high-quality contested ball numbers. So it’ll create a strong scoring bump if he can tidy up his efficiency even by 5%.

With more trades in DreamTeam and SuperCoach than ever before, coaches can afford to attack the game differently. So while in previous eras, you needed to view Serong as a season-long hold. But I don’t believe you have to anymore. He can still be someone that is used as a premium runner. So when he scores like a premium for six weeks, you pocket the $100k+ you’ve saved instead of starting one at his spot. You can then reinvest those dollars on top of another player. Then, after your stretch of games, you can sideways trade to a fallen premium in the midfield.

There isn’t the preseason hype around Serong, but one preseason match is all it takes for that to change.

DRAFT DECISION

Based on his averages from last year, he’s ranked as the 45th-best midfielder in SuperCoach and the 44th-best in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. On the draft day, that’d place Caleb Serong at M5. But I’d be shocked to see him be available at that point of the draft. Given his apparent upside, M4 will be a more normative ADP for him.

The beauty of a draft is that everyone values players differently. I can see someone reaching for him at M3 in some leagues because they want to own him. And while it’s a touch early, sometimes you need to reach 10-15 spots earlier to secure the player you want.

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#36 Most Relevant | Caleb Serong

Fantasy football coaches love to chase a breakout candidate. In 2022 can Caleb Serong elevate himself to being a premium midfielder?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Caleb Serong
Age: 20
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score: 
143 Vs North Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
135 Vs West Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
143 Vs North Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2021)
135 Vs West Coast | SuperCoach (2021)

2021 Average: 
82.4 (AFLFantasy)
82.9 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $451,000
AFLFantasy Price: $691,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $702,300

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

One of the satisfying feelings as a fantasy coach is nailing a breakout selection and watching them turn into a premium. Entering 2022, the hype train is growing for Fremantle midfielder Caleb Serong. As a junior, he showed the fantasy pedigree that coaches notice. During the national championships in 2019 for Vic Country, he averaged 23.5 disposals, 5.5 marks, 8.5 tackles and almost a goal a game. Thankfully for coaches, the scoring appeared almost immediately from his debut season as a Docker.

From fourteen games in 2020, he averaged 81 in SuperCoach and posted three tons all over 110. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged an adjusted 83 and scored three pure 90’s and a ton. Not a bad effort for a first-year player and in shorter games. These performances had coaches bullish that he’d join the elite company of Nat Fyfe, Clayton Oliver and Jackson Macrae and become a premium in season two. While that didn’t happen year-round, it did further enhance the belief that it was a matter of when not if, he’d return a triple-figure average in his career.

Last season he averaged 82.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, consisting of five tons, four of them over 115 and a personal best 143. In addition, he had four more scores over 80. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 82.8 scored seven tons, three of them were above 115 and his career-high score of 135. In addition, he scored an extra five times 80 or higher.

In totality, that’s strong from a second-year player, but the final five games of the year are what has given fantasy players greater confidence with selecting him this year. In the last five games in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored 94, 75, 118, 117 & 116. That’s an average of 104 in that stretch, but he went at 117 in the final three. The trend is similar in SuperCoach. He ended the year with 103, 82, 115, 135 & 103. Again, that’s a five-game average of 107 and a last three of 117.

This analysis trend of how a player ends a year being used to forecast a new season has been used by coaches to project premium seasons for many years with good effect. For example, when Aaron Hall played for Gold Coast in the final seven games of 2015, he averaged 106 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 112 in SuperCoach. The following year in 2016, he played 17 games, averaged 105 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and scored 11 tons, three over 120, including a 151. All year he had just two scores under 90.

Over the final ten games of 2017, Toby McLean averaged 95 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam after only having one score over 90 in his first nine games. While in SuperCoach, he ended the year final ten-game stretch with an average of 97 after failing to score a ton in the opening nine games. In 2018 he averaged mid 90’s across the formats and was one of the best forward premiums. It also happened again at the Bulldogs but with Josh Dunkley. In 2018 during his last nine games in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 112 and scored 7 tons, 5 of them were over 110, and his lowest score was 96. For SuperCoach, he averaged 115 and scored 7 tons, 3 of them were over 130, and his lowest score was 86. In 2019 he played every game and averaged 111 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 116 in SuperCoach.

What can help further enhance this narrative is Adam Cerra departing the club to join Carlton. We’ve got only four data games to go off last year, but in those matches, without Cerra, we saw Serong average 101 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 89 in SuperCoach. So the signs are certainly orienting towards a strong season from Caleb Serong.

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MY TAKE

The signs are there, and to be frank, they’ve been around since his junior days. In time, Caleb Serong will be a star, and he’ll be a popular premium for many years to come. The primary question is, will he average enough to warrant selection this year?

Last year he was the clubhouse leader for the Dockers for centre bounce attendances, but he did have a specific role set by the coaching staff. The majority of the year, he was forced to play accountable through the midfield. It’s not a tagging role, but he was defensively minded in core function. This was done by Fremantle as a pathway to advance his development. And it certainly will pay dividends in time. Having him learn off the running and midfield patterns of Zach Merrett, Sam Walsh, Jack Macrae and Touk Miller.

In theory, he will take a more ball-focused role with Adam Cerra gone to Carlton, David Mundy injured, and Nat Fyfe is slowly building into the preseason. But will the growth he experiences be significant enough to make it worthwhile? Each format requires a different strategy and mindset for success, but for now, I’d like to group SuperCoach and DreamTeam and AFLFantasy in isolation.

At his price in DT/SC, he’s priced too high to be considered a stepping stone. But that’s what a Matt Rowell is. At his price point in the early ’80s, he must become a premium for you and be someone you intend to retain for the entire season. To do this, he needs to average a minimum increase of 20 points per game of growth to warrant it. Can he do that? Maybe. But also, can you choose to select him over Elliot Yeo or Matt Crouch? Both who if fit and proven guys who can go 105+. I’m not sure you could start multiples of these guys anyway in these formats. That’s a lot of hope returns in the scoring line that should provide for you the great points reward.

A scoring increase of 15 points per game is in the high 90’s, but again that’s not enough. At his price, he’s not making you enough money to warrant the trade as a stepping stone. And if he can’t push an average near 105, then he’s not scoring enough to be the premium midfielder you’re choosing him to be. I don’t believe he’ll average enough to be someone I’m happy to hold for the season in these limited trade formats of the game. So in DreamTeam and SuperCoach, it’s a ‘no’ from me.

AFLFantasy is the format that makes the most sense, to begin with him. I can see a comfortable growth of 10 points per game and even an early run of over 5-6 weeks going at 100. In this format, players with some obvious value on price point and the ability to match it with premiums for a few weeks is exactly the right starting approach. With the two trades a week, you can be looking to play a quicker cash game and own multiple players within the price range. Between $700,000 and $640,000 we’re rich for option. They include Elliot Yeo, Patrick Cripps, Luke Shuey, Tim Kelly and Matt Crouch. Plus the MID/FWD options in Stephen Coniglio, Tarryn Thomas, Jack Graham and Shai Bolton.

Is he the best option at that price point? Can you have multiples? And if so, how many? Ultimately that will be a big decision point for coaches in AFLFantasy this season. In this format, one in four coaches already own him, and if he fires early, it’ll feel like a victory early on.

DRAFT DECISION

Players like Caleb Serong are fascinating to watch where they do go on draft day. I’m confident that you’ll have a coach that’s bullish on the breakout and reach for him too early in some leagues. While others will cool and draft based on his average and have him as later. His range of positions could be as high as an M2 or as low as an M5. I think if you want him, you’ll have to take the plunge at M3. The potential ‘salary cap hype’ could bleed into coaches thinking. M4 feels the right space for me.

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Keeper League Ranks | Tier Five | Patreon Exclusive

Kane and MJ continue on their ranking of the keeper leagues. This tier has nearly 1/5 of the entire list in this tier. Check out who we have and why

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Taylor Adams

KANEOh, Taylor Adams, where do we start? Let’s go with the positives first, such is my nature. 
Simply put, the guy scores when he plays a full game. In the final nine games of 2021 he averaged 108 points and delivered seven tons. In 2017 he played every game and averaged 115 points and in 2020 he played all 17 games in the shortened format and delivered an adjusted average of 114. Those are uber numbers for any fantasy player.
The negative is his availability. Outside of 2017 and 2020 where he didn’t miss a game, Adams other games tallies since 2016 are 14, 19, 10 and 14 respectively. That’s way too much missed time and exactly why he isn’t in the higher tiers. You just can’t guarantee he’ll be as available for 85% of the season. 
Adams scoring power will always warrant a high pick and can certainly yield high returns but you’d want to support him with some durable premiums and a deep bench to not leave yourself exposed in the midfield. 
MJHe has the scoring power of a top two or three tier player, but he’s got the career injury concerns that mean picking Taylor Adams too high in a new keeper could be catastrophic. 
Since debuting TayTay has just two seasons where he’s played every match possible. Of the other 8 seasons, he’s missed anywhere from 3 to 12 games per year. 
The thing that you have to love about Adams is his relentless ability to score well. Since 2015 his seasonal averages hasn’t dropped below 90. 
Last year he averaged 100, but his final 10 games were fire. He scored 8 tons, with four of them over 115. At 28 years old he’s still worth the draft capital in this tier. At best he’ll give you 3-4 years of a certain 100 average. 
At worst, well it’s injury affected, but my encouragement if picking him or any player with a poor injury history is to support this draft pick with another pick. Select an extra midfielder, create security for yourself as history says you’ll need the cover multiple times. 
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Ollie Wines

KANEWhat a season 2021 was for Ollie Wines. A Brownlow Medal and a career-best fantasy year has him in the top 50 keeper prospects for the first time since 2016 for mine. 
After seven solid years of averaging between 90-100, Wines exploded to average 112 points in 2021 while playing every home and away game for the first time since 2018.
It’s no surprise with an 112 average that we saw both Wines’ floor and ceiling rise this year. His lowest score was 70 points but in 20 games he scored more than 90 points and 15 of those were triple figures. 
His ceiling was on full display in the second half of the season. Pre-bye he averaged 106 points but post-bye he averaged 118 which featured his three highest scores of the year – 154, 151 and 140. 
I’d never seen Wines display the running power he demonstrated in 2021 so I think we have to declare that he’s a different player to those previous years. However, I can’t see him recreating his numbers of this year going forward. For me he’s a 100-107 option averager and an absolute rock in your midfield for another three to four years.  
MJFor years Ollie Wines has been a good, but not great keeper option. From 2014-2020 he’d consistently averaged between 91-100 and provided a level of reliability for his owners.
In 2021 the reigning Brownlow Medalist found another gear. He averaged career high possession numbers (32), up to five per game from his previous best year. In addition to this, his uncontested and mark count were personal bests. In short. Ollie developed an outside part to his game, where he no longer become an ‘inside bull’ only, but a rounded midfielder. 
It’s no surprise he averaged 112, score 15 tons and dropped his scoring beneath 85 just once. 
At 26, we’ve still got 5-6 years of peak Wines performances. But will they be close to his Brownlow year or the previous 5 seasons? For me, I believe it’s somewhere between the two. 
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Caleb Daniel

KANECaleb Daniel and Jayden Short I’m going to couple together because from a fantasy perspective they deliver basically the exact same thing. 
25 years of age: comfortably five years of premium output ahead Long term defenders: no concern about losing back statusPremium scorers: they’ve already demonstrated 85+ scoring and are in their prime now High floor, low ceiling: both only hit 120+ once in 2021 but also they rarely scored under 80 (Short did it four times, Daniel six)
I’m not going to waste words here. With Daniel and Short you’re getting a year-in year-out top 10 defender for the next five years. 
MJDid you watch the Grand Final? If you did, I probably don’t need to create much more of a compelling case for you to own Caleb Daniel than that game. 
The bulldogs love to get the ball into his hands to create both rebounds off defensive 50, but also damaging plays heading into their own attacking half. 
Since making the transition to the backline he’s averaged 93, 88 (BCV), and last season an 86. 
Daniel does possess a higher range of scoring deviation than I’d like, but like with anyone who can throw up a poor sub 50 score, you need to be able to counter it with some 120+ performances to balance that out. Thankfully for Daniel, he can do that.
At 25, he’s still got another 6-7 seasons of playing that core distributor role for the Doggies and for as long as he plays as a defender, he’ll be one of the safest 85+ averaging backs you’ll get in a keeper league. 
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Jayden Short

KANECaleb Daniel and Jayden Short I’m going to couple together because from a fantasy perspective they deliver basically the exact same thing. 
25 years of age: comfortably five years of premium output ahead Long term defenders: no concern about losing back statusPremium scorers: they’ve already demonstrated 85+ scoring and are in their prime now High floor, low ceiling: both only hit 120+ once in 2021 but also they rarely scored under 80 (Short did it four times, Daniel six)
I’m not going to waste words here. With Daniel and Short you’re getting a year-in year-out top 10 defender for the next five years. 
MJAs Kane has highlighted, the parallels between Caleb Daniel and Jayden Short are scarily similar. 
Jayden is rated elite in the league for meters gained, disposals and rebound 50’s. Further to these elite ratings, his kick to handball ratio is 3:1. Which is perfect for us keeper coaches. 

Since the start of 2020 Short hasn’t missed a game. That year he averaged 90.87 in a BCV equivalent.  To further prove it wasn’t a scoring anomaly 
In 2021 he averaged 93. That consisted of nine tons, and in just two occasions did his scoring dip sub 70.
At 26 years of age at the start of next season, not only is in his prime of scoring he’s also got long term defensive positional stability. GUN! 
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Max Gawn

KANEMax Gawn’s keeper stock obviously isn’t what it was three to four seasons ago but he’s still one of the best rucks in the game and a player that goes a long way to winning now. 
Despite Gawn hitting 30 years of age prior to the 2022 season commencing there’s no signs of deterioration in his game. Gawn delivered a 109 average in 2021 across all 22 home and away games. Gawn’s floor was remarkable again in 2021 with only three scores sub 90 (72, 73 and 84) to go with 15 tons (four of which were 130+). 
There’s some concern in the community that Luke Jackson’s continual growth will severely hamper Gawn’s scoring but I don’t see the major dip. We have to remember that 2022 is only season three for Jackson so he’s still a number of years away from taking the burden of a No. 1 ruck role. A positive for Gawn owners may arrive in 2024 in the form of forward status as Jackson continues to see more centre bounce action. 
It’s probably wishful thinking to expect more than three premium seasons out of Gawn but even if it’s just two I think you can push hard in that time with him to secure a premiership. 
MJAre his best years really behind him? It’s a narrative in the community, but I think it’s false.  Check out these seasonal averages  
2018: Avg 1112019: Avg 1112020: Avg 123.6 BCV2021: 108 AVG – 3 scores below 90, 15 tons, 5 120+
As Kane has touched on, his average from this season is much more aligned with the ‘normative’ scoring for gawn rather than his exceptional 2020. 
No doubt there’ll be ruck sharing with Luke Jackson, both as he develops but also as the Demons try to prepare Max for a big few years of premiership defence. 
A potential positive is he’ll likely end career as RUC/FWD DPP. The question Gawn owners need to ponder is how quickly (if at all) you handcuff him to Luke Jackson?
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Rowan Marshall

KANEIt’s when not if for Rowan Marshall in a keeper. The fact that he’ll be 26 years of age at the start of 2022 and has already delivered premium numbers in the past three seasons is remarkable. 
The clear handbrake that every Marshall owner is waiting to be released is Paddy Ryder. While Ryder is in the Saints team he’ll be their primary centre bounce ruckman as that’s the best part of his game. This currently has relegated Marshall to second-fiddle and spending the bulk of his time forward. 
The positive with Marshall’s current role is that he’s a ruck-forward and yet he can still score. The season that will see Marshall’s stock rise to an all-time high will be the year he’s primary ruck and starts the season with forward status. That one year will be a massive advantage for the coach that owns him but even after that I see him as a 100 averaging ruck and that’s a piece that will hold any side in great stead going forward.
MJThe year is 2024… which rucks are at the top of the tree?  Is Brodie Grundy  still there? Some might have Sean Darcy  or even Reilly O’Brien. All validate candidates. But I propose another option? Rowan Marshall. By then, Rowan might well be the #1 ruck option in the game.

Marshall might be sharing ruck duties with Paddy Ryder for now, but I believe in 12 months time this RUC/FWD will be playing as a sole ruck. 
In 2019 when he was solo ruck he averaged 99 and posted twelve tons.  Last year he averaged 89 from 13 games with just five tons. Here’s the interesting split, all of these hundreds were when Ryder wasn’t playing. In fact he averaged just 77 from the seven games they played together. However, in the six games he rucked solo he averaged 103.7 

The beauty of Marshall for one lucky owner is you’ll get a Unicorn season from him in the next season or two. Where he’s RUC/FWD eligible but playing as a pure ruck, meaning he’ll likely average 100+. 

Hugh McCluggage

KANEIt’s rare to see players increase their average each year but through his first five seasons that’s exactly what Hugh McCluggage has done. 
At 23 years of age and fresh off his first 100 point season McCluggage is already in rarified air. Even if he was just to maintain his current output he’d be a top 25 midfielder for the next seven years, which can’t be understated. 
I do think there’s a bit more improvement in McCluggage though. Currently, he plays predominantly an outside role but he’s certainly capable of playing on the inside if required and it will only take a couple more CBA’s to push his average to 105 and then he’s inside the top 20. 
The other factor you have to love about McCluggage is his availability. In the past four seasons he’s played every game bar one! 
While he might never deliver a 110+ season I think his reliability and availability will make him an excellent keeper for many years to come. 
MJI’m not sold Hugh McCluggage ever gives us the monster 110-115+ season, that’s due to him likely being more outside impacting midfielder. But that said, I don’t see him dropping under 95-105 for the next 8 seasons.
Last season he averaged 100, it included thirteen tons, eight of these were over 110, and just twice last season his scoring dipped under 74. 
This is a breakdown of his scoring spread from last season: 50% from kicks, 16% HB, 15% marks, 14% tackles, 3% goals. That’s a player who’s not dependent on one ‘variable’ to score.  An unheralded stat line for Hugh is around his durability. In the past four seasons missed one game. 
The human suitcase may never become the ‘monster’ elite like others on this list, but he will be a crucial cog in keeper leagues for the better part of a decade. 
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Caleb Serong

KANEWhat Caleb Serong has already demonstrated in his first two seasons is phenomenal. Since earning his debut in Round 4 last year Serong hasn’t missed a game, playing 36 straight. 
In that time he’s already shown a massive ceiling. In Round 6 this year against North Melbourne he scored 143 points on the back of 35 disposals, seven marks and seven tackles. For comparison, fellow Tier 5 midfielder Hugh McCluggage has a career-high of 128 points despite playing another 70 games. 
It wasn’t just a one-off either with Serong reeling off back to back to back tons to finish the season (118, 117 and 116 in Round 21-23). In addition, to a ton and three 90s in the reduced gametime of the 2020 season.
While the departure of Adam Cerra will certainly help Serong I don’t see it as the main reason for his improvement in 2022 and beyond. The real upside for Serong is that his time on ground is extremely low (70% range) and that should continue to increase as he gets more preseasons under his belt. The other thing that will help Serong is his role. This year he was tasked with numerous run-with roles in the early part of the year before being released to hunt the ball in the later part of the year. I believe that was all part of his learning and won’t be something we see often going forward. 
At 20 years of age there’s a decade of 100+ scoring on the horizon for this Fremantle rising star. 
MJNailing the picks inside the top 50 of a brand new keeper is critical to immediate and sustained success. Caleb Serong has the forecast potential to be among one of the best players in the years to come. 
If you want a long term 105 averaging midfield with potential for more you’ve got to jump ahead of where a redraft or seasonal draft league board would rank them. 
Last year he split his season playing some defensive minded midfield roles before being released in the last month. It was his final three weeks where he scored 18, 117 & 116 that really caught people’s attention. Across the 2021 year he averaged 82, which was made up of five tons including a personal best 143. 
In a BCV era 2020 we still saw the raw potential of scoring brilliance.  That year he took six games before debuting with a BCV ton (aka an 80+) score. But it was back to back 90’s before he scored a pure 101 (aka 120 in BCV world). 
He’ll get plenty of preseason hype among the AFLFantasy community, so if you want to own him you can’t expect too many to sleep on him. 
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Matt Crouch

KANELet’s start with the positives surrounding Matt Crouch. From 2017 to 2020 he averaged between 105-110 points and played 90 percent of games. Throw into the mix that he’s 26 years old and should have 3+ years of elite scoring ahead of him, you’d be fair to ask why he’s not in a higher tier.
Well that’s where we do have to address the negatives. When you miss a whole season through injury, alarm bells are rightly going to go off. Particularly, when the injury is a groin and is prone to linger and re-occur. 
There’s also some concern around how Adelaide will structure their midfield and amount of opportunity Crouch may get with Laird and Keays coming off impressive seasons and the plethora of youth the Crows are trying to develop. I still believe Crouch is one of their top centre bounce midfielders but any dip in attendance would negatively impact his scoring. 
Hopefully by the time you have to make a decision on drafting/trading Crouch we have an update on how his body is progressing through the preseason. Clearly there’s some massive risk if he’s unable to get on the park but there’s also plenty of upside with his scoring power. 
MJOne of the greatest dangers in keepers is that with established players you go ‘too far back’ in their scoring history. By osmosis, you can start to value them at a potentially inflated price and begin paying a draft position based on who they’ve been not what they’ll deliver. 
In the case of Matt Crouch, I don’t believe that’s a risk you need to worry about. At 26, he’s still right in the prime of his career and should he 
Looking back at his most recent season, 2020 was a bizarre season for Crouch. Before getting dropped in round four due to poor form, Crouch was averaging 64.3 (80 adjusted) and had a top score of 72. When he returned in round five he scored 4 tons, 4 additional scores over 90, 2 over 80 and had the lowest score of 75. In these final 13 matches, he averaged 93.9 (adjusted 117)
The years prior he averaged 106, 104 & 106. Clearly, the risk with Crouch isn’t scoring ability, it’s what level does he return to post a season ruined by injury? That is the big question coaches will need to answer before investing in him.
Breakevens | Round 11

Buy low, sell high! It’s the age-old motto to succeed in Fantasy football of all formats. Every week we share with you the players with the lowest breakevens across AFLFantasy, SuperCoach & DreamTeam. Here are the players that offer the best breakevens heading into a new round.

For SuperCoach and DreamTeam we only include players who are on the price bubble and have played more than one game.

PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
 S. Draper RUC$166,10073.5-47
 C. Serong MID$330,10078.2-33
 S. Wicks MID$123,90080-28
 T. WatsonDEF$155,40061-28
 J. MadgenDEF$278,50067-23
 S. NaismithRUC$296,800100-21
 D. MinchingtonFWD$141,50051.5-18
 K. HaydenMID$248,30052.4-17
 L. ButlerDEF/MID$141,90051-17
 X. O’HalloranMID$123,90068-16
 T. SparrowFWD$211,50071-15
 D. CameronRUC/FWD$219,50061.5-13
 T. Lynch FWD$321,20069.6-13
 S. Skinner FWD$130,20044.5-11
 J. Aarts FWD$249,90060.8-11
 H. Schoenberg MID$117,30059-10
 T. Xerri RUC/FWD$144,80048-9
 N. Balta RUC/FWD$325,70071.3-7
 S. Philp MID$140,90045.5-6
 K. Brooksby RUC$117,30055-6
 W. WalkerFWD$154,90067-3
 H. Jones MID$123,90054-2
 L. HosieFWD$123,90054-2
 A. McPherson DEF$245,60069.2-1
 O. Markov MID$184,40078-1
 J. Jones FWD$161,60048.50
PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
 S. Wicks MID$196,00055-22
 S. Draper RUC$238,00053.5-11
 L. Butler DEF/MID$229,00050.5-11
 M. HibberdMID$324,00052.3-9
 X. O’Halloran MID$184,00038-8
 T. Watson DEF $255,00046-8
 J. Brander DEF/FWD$354,00055.3-8
 S. Sturt FWD$237,000390
 B. McKay DEF $320,00049.50
 L. Hosie FWD$188,000442
 R. Gardner FWD$203,00034.52
 J. Jones FWD$273,00050.53
 A. McPherson DEF $320,000513
 B. Davis FWD$182,000374
 B. Woodcock FWD$185,000405
 J. Aarts FWD$338,00046.85
 J. Bell MID/FWD$288,00047.75
 J. Mcinerney MID$282,000445
 S. McAdam FWD$342,000466
 D. Cameron RUC/FWD$302,00047.37
 C. Warner MID$204,000278
 J. Madgen DEF $330,00044.58
 S. Skinner FWD$283,00049.59
PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
C. SerongMID $424,50062-40
S. DraperRUC$210,10054-33
S. SkinnerFWD$191,00050-31
L. ButlerDEF/MID$199,90051-30
R. StoddartDEF/MID$202,10049-23
T. WatsonDEF $200,10046-21
J. JonesFWD$228,40051-20
S. Wicks MID $160,90055-17
B. MackayDEF$321,20050-15
 D. Minchington FWD$184,10040-15
M. Georgiades FWD$320,30055-11
K. HaydenMID $286,50037-9
J. AartsFWD$319,60047-8
B. WoodcockFWD$132,80040-8
H. SchoenbergMID $152,20043-7
M. HibbertdMID $306,60052-6
L. HosieFWD$160,90044-6
S. MayesMID $426,20066-5
J. BellMID/FWD$287,50048-5
A. McPhersonDEF$310,50051-4
W. PowellMID$360,90044-3
R. GardnerFWD$190,10035-2
J. MahoneyMID/FWD$310,20038-1
T. StengleFWD$315,700420
X. O’HalloranMID$160,900380
Breakevens | Round 5

Buy low, sell high! It’s the age-old motto to succeed in Fantasy football of all formats. Every week we share with you the players with the lowest breakevens across AFLFantasy, SuperCoach & DreamTeam. Here are the players that offer the best breakevens heading into a new round.

For SuperCoach and DreamTeam we only include players who are on the price bubble and have played more than one game.

PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
Sam NaismithRUC$296,800100-27
Laitham VandeermeerMID/FWD$225,00063-27
Jake AartsFWD$123,90076-27
Tom GreenMID$238,50069-27
Mitchell Georgiades FWD$130,80078-26
Hayden YoungDEF$262,70065-24
Kyron HaydenMID$197,90050-24
Josh BruceFWD$288,80057-23
Jack MahoneyMID/FWD$141,20050-18
Darcy CameronRUC/FWD$147,70051-15
Jye CaldwellMID$219,90070-12
Tristan XerriRUC/FWD$144,80048-12
Harley Bennell MID$123,90059-10
Toby NankervisRUC$449,30099-9
Sam PhilpMID$140,90046-9
Tom WilliamsonDEF$215,10062-8
Caleb SerongMID$200,00062-8
Thomas BerryFWD$177,50056-8
Griffin LogueDEF$357,40070-7
Shane McAdamFWD$142,10045-7
Ned McHenryMID$143,50035-5
Harrison JonesMID$123,90054-5
Stephen Hill DEF/FWD$214,00064-4
Jamaine JonesFWD$161,60049-3
Louis ButlerDEF/MID$117,30049-3
Ben DavisFWD$123,90051-2
Deven RobertsonMID$117,30047-1
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PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
Laitham VandeermeerMID/FWD$297,00050-25
Sam NaismithRUC$368,00077-24
Curtis TaylorFWD$358,00055-17
Shane McAdamFWD$205,00039-12
Hayden YoungDEF$353,00051-12
Jake AartsFWD$197,00054-9
Jye CaldwellMID$364,00064-9
Jamaine JonesMID$273,00050-9
Marlion PickettMID$255,00045-8
Tom GreenMID$301,00045-8
Ben CrockerFWD$363,00051-8
Darcy CameronRUC/FWD$225,00045-8
Josh WalkerDEF$367,00040-7
Tom BerryFWD$219,00035-7
Will HamillDEF$213,00033-7
Aiden CorrDEF $408,00055-7
Jarrod BranderDEF/FWD$354,00055-6
Kyron HaydenMID$227,00032-6
Justin McInerneyMID$282,00044-5
Ned McHenryMID$231,00033-4
Tom WilliamsonDEF$318,00048-4
Harley Bennell MID$267,00047-4
Noah AndersonMID$389,00053-3
Mitchell Georgiades FWD$258,00060-3
Sam SturtFWD$237,00039-3
Louis ButlerDEF/MID$189,00043-2
Jonathan MarshDEF$319,00048-2
Caleb SerongMID$309,00052-1
Ben KeaysFWD$425,00057-1
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PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
Sam NaismithRUC$360,50077-30
Jamaine JonesFWD$228,40051-23
Mitchell Georgiades FWD$167,20060-22
Darcy CameronRUC/FWD$200,20045-21
Hayden YoungDEF$336,10052-20
Laitham VandermerMID/FWD$291,70051-18
Jake AartsFWD$160,90054-18
Jye CaldwellMID$326,90065-17
Caleb SerongMID$256,80052-16
Shane McAdamFWD$191,60040-13
Harley Bennell MID$160,90047-11
Louis ButlerDEF/MID$152,20043-9
Curtis TaylorFWD$360,50056-8
Tom WilliamsonDEF$299,30048-7
Ned McHenryMID$219,10033-7
Kyron HaydenMID$223,50033-5
Ryan GardnerFWD$190,10035-4
Rhylee WestFWD$261,30047-3
Josh WalkerDEF$372,20040-1
Stephen HillDEF/FWD$272,80047-1
Ben DavisFWD$160,90037-1

Breakevens | Round Four

Buy low, sell high! It’s the age-old motto to succeed in Fantasy football of all formats. Every week we share with you the players with the lowest breakevens across AFLFantasy, SuperCoach & DreamTeam. Here are the players that offer the best breakevens heading into a new round.

For SuperCoach and DreamTeam we only include players who are on the price bubble and have played more than one game.

PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
Sam NaismithRUC$296,800100-29
Mitchell Georgiades FWD$130,80078-27
Tom WilliamsonDEF$178,30065-26
Sam SturtFWD$152,20056-24
Hayden YoungDEF$223,30064-21
Tom GreenMID$197,90068-21
Charlie DixonFWD$406,600105-19
Darcy CameronRUC/FWD$147,70051-16
Aiden CorrDEF $330,20083-15
Kyron HaydenMID$162,90045-15
Trent RiversDEF/MID$139,20048-15
Jye CaldwellMID$219,90070-14
Harley Bennell MID$123,90059-11
Laitham VandeermeerMID/FWD$176,50051-10
Ben KingFWD$331,80080-7
Tristan XerriRUC/FWD$123,90054-6
Kysaiah Pickett FWD$178,40054-6
Jack MahoneyMID/FWD$117,30050-5
Ben DavisFWD$123,90051-3
Louis ButlerDEF/MID$117,30049-3
Dan ButlerFWD$415,300107-2
Caleb SerongMID$175,80071-2
Marc PittonetRUC$398,400122-1
Deven RobertsonMID$117,30047-1
Justin McInerneyMID$210,20068-1
PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
Matthew RowellMID$523,00088.5-28
Sam NaismithRUC$368,00077-22
Aiden CorrDEF $368,00057-22
Justin McInerneyMID$252,00046-15
Brandon StarcevichDEF/MID$337,00054.8-13
Curtis TaylorFWD$307,00051-12
Michael GibbonsFWD$510,00067.8-11
Hayden YoungDEF$313,00049.3-11
Connor BudarickMID/FWD$303,00048.5-9
Marc PittonetRUC$437,00071.7-9
Marlion PickettMID$255,00045-7
Laitham VandeermeerMID/FWD$246,00042-7
Jye CaldwellMID$364,00065-7
Jonathan MarshDEF$291,00052-7
Darcy CameronRUC/FWD$225,00045-7
Max KingFWD$269,00041.5-5
Dan ButlerFWD$523,00076-5
Kyron HaydenMID$203,00031-5
Trent RiversDEF/MID$270,00044.7-4
Ben KeaysFWD$391,00056.7-4
Tom WilliamsonDEF$289,00049-4
Jarrod BranderDEF/FWD$354,00055.3-4
Harley Bennell MID$267,00047-3
Ned McHenryMID$209,00032-2
Louis ButlerDEF/MID$189,00043-2
Mitchell Georgiades FWD$258,00060-1
Tyler BrownMID$257,00038.8-1
Noah AnmdersonMID$354,00050.3-1
Jarrod BerryMID$605,000750
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PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
Sam NaismithRUC$360,50077-31
Aiden CorrDEF $374,20057-27
Trent RiversDEF/MID$191,80045-23
Darcy CameronRUC/FWD$200,20045-22
Mitchell Georgiades FWD$167,20060-22
Ben KeaysFWD$350,60057-20
Jye CaldwellMID$326,90065-18
Hayden YoungDEF$286,10049-11
Caleb SerongMID$217,20060-11
Harley Bennell MID$160,90047-12
Sam SturtFWD$189,30038-11
Charlie DixonFWD$470,70071-9
Tom DoedeeDEF $324,10049-9
Tom WilliamsonDEF$259,30049-9
Louis ButlerDEF/MID$152,20043-9
Jonathan MarshDEF$287,40052-6
Justin McInerneyMID$249,10046-5
Ryan GardnerFWD$190,10035-5
Billy FramptonFWD$249,90044-3
Kyron HaydenMID$195,10031-2
Jamaine JonesFWD$185,90045-2
Ben DavisFWD$160,90037-1
Tyler BrownMID$251,50039-1
Marc PittonetRUC$411,200720
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Marsh Community Series Review | Eagles Vs Dockers

It a late afternoon game at Joondalup the Dockers took the Pre Season Derby win over the Eagles by a miserly one point 55 v 54 after a late and spirited fight back.

The Eagles had the game on their terms early playing a high possession kick/mark brand which magnified a few defenders stats, especially that of Liam Duggan’s 32 disposals and 12 marks.

It looked a laydown misere for the Eagles entering the last quarter before a strong fightback by Fremantle, as the tempo lifted albeit for last 10 minutes with both teams appearing keen to get a win.

Chief outs: West Coast: Darling, Allen and Cole Fremantle: Ryan, Aish, Mundy, and the injured Pearce, Hamling, and Acres.

Nat Fyfe:

A game-high 14 contested, owned by 36% in SC and unlikely to drop off this performance, 11 CBA’s and some time forward for his 115 SC points.

Andrew Brayshaw:

If this guy isn’t in your team or not on your watchlist as a forward you’re doing it wrong. He had 25 disposals, 10 contested, 8 tackles, 14 CBA’s priced at 70 in DT and 71 in SC, went at 1.3 PPM in AF for his 120 points.

Adam Cerra:

A tough one to get a gauge on imho, will definitely be unique but will he deliver, had 17 disposals with just the 5 CBA’s, Darcy Tucker may just be ahead of him atm for more midfield time.

Michael Walters:

If he gets enough midfield minutes he will be a very good pick in 2020. Sonny had a sensational 3rd quarter, the problem is he is a very dangerous forward and Freo lack what he brings to their offence. Regardless of the splits, he will definitely end up one of the top forwards of this year.

Lachie Schultz:

A lively forward rook who a few of us may have started in 2019. Unfortunately, his price has blown out in 2020 but he might need to consider after his 2 decent pre-season games and our shortage of low priced rooks atm.

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Serong and Sturt:

Two rookies to consider if they get named Round 1, with limited game time it’s going to be tough for them.

Stephen Hill:

He was taking the kickins in the absence of Ryan and setting up some creative plays. However, the problem is he’s been diagnosed with some quad awareness and is off for scans this week.

Conner Blakely:

‘Connie B’ didn’t play in the main game but responded to his axing with a BOG in the curtain raiser for Peel Thunder v The Eagles, will that be enough to start Round 1?

Elliot Yeo:

A game-high 33 disposals, 15 CBA’s, 7 tackles, was the top-scoring AFLFantasy player with 126 and he went at 1.4 PPM. His first 7 disposals were kicks but he let himself down a little with 18 of the next 26 disposals being handballs. Kick the ball Elliot.

Andrew Gaff:

Just the 4 CBA’s in his 32 disposals but ended up being the highest SC scorer on the ground with 133 points, also only owned by 2% in SC, an excellent unique option.

Tim Kelly:

He’s a fantastic addition in the midfield for the Eagles, wait until he gets his burners going, 29 with 8 contested, will be one of the best for the Eagles in 2020 imho.

Jarrad Brander:

A fwd/def rookie played a defensive wing type role and looks to have cemented a Round 1 spot, we need these guys.

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Nic Naitanui:

The usual type of game from Naitanui. Low time on the ground with plenty of points. Nic posted a 100 in SuperCoach, 64 in AFLFantasy. NicNat is currently the 14th most expensive ruck in SuperCoach, can you go there as your R2? He’s in 13% of SC teams.

Dom Sheed:

He was too good not to get a mention, played forward a bit and finished with 23 disposals and 2 goals, 99 SC. Champion Data will be looking very closely into his Fwd/Mid splits early in the year. I’m already expecting a Fwd Status addition in AF and UF

Marsh Community Series Review | Dockers v Blues

An interesting fantasy game this one – there were plenty of watchlist players running around for their first formal match practise of 2020. To start with however, here’s a list to keep in mind of important players who didn’t play:

Fremantle: Fyfe, Hill, Mundy, Walters, Pearce, Wilson, Hayden Young

Carlton: Betts, Cripps, Marchbank, McGovern, McKay, Murphy, Petrevski-Seton

So when reviewing players, their role, their performance & the match just keep the above in mind.

Rory Lobb

Lobb needs mentioning because he had such a big game, however there are some important things to note. The first is that Darcy didn’t play the second half due to a precautionary injury resting (per coach afterwards he should be fine) & the second is that Kreuzer didn’t play the second half either (Kreuze looked good in the first half too) so Lobb basically played ruck against Pittonet for half a game.

Having said that, he looked much better than Darcy in the first half anyway. He was more mobile, took more marks, looked more dangerous – it wouldn’t surprise if Freo again play Lobb as their main ruck and leave Darcy in the WAFL at times as happened last year. It makes for an interesting dynamic for draft leagues.

Andrew Brayshaw

Brayshaw played midfield and he got a lot of it when he was on. An excellent sign for those keen on him as a breakout ‘forward’ this year. Keep in mind the above players who didn’t play though so it’s hard to read anything definitive into his role & likely scoring just based on this game. He does look to be on the up though.

Blake Acres

Per Brayshaw above, had the midfield role we were hoping for (he’s another ‘forward’ this year) however, again, look at the list of outs above. We’ll want to see this role and output again in their 2nd match when Fyfe, Walters, Mundy etc are back.

Please read our full preseason take on him from the 50 Most Relevant Series here.

Connor Blakely

It’s like a record on repeat here – per Brayshaw & Acres above, Blakely certainly played a lot around the ball and through the midfield. Once again though, we need to see who stays in there when everyone’s playing. I will also note that his disposal wasn’t quite as clean as the other two, although he’s certainly a big lad in there and knows how to find it.

Please read our full preseason take on him from the 50 Most Relevant Series here.

Adam Cerra

Cerra certainly played a good chunk of the game in midfield and looked very solid. He was also around half-back at times. A clean ball user who was going at a high disposal efficiency throughout, he’s someone they’ll want to give the ball to as well. Role will be important when we get to the next praccy match again though.

Lachie Schultz

Probably too awkwardly priced to really be of note, it was still a really good game from the young forward. His disposal and decision making weren’t always clean but he got involved and threw himself into contests. Four goals straight was also an excellent return.

Caleb Serong

Looked really good, clean and promising. Probably too much in the midfield depth chart ahead of him to be worth his price tag this year but one for the future certainly.

Sam Walsh

Just the lazy 28 touches for Walsh in this game – obviously going to have the 2nd year Blues… But seriously, he looked as good as ever in this game. Too high a price to really be salary cap relevant this year but he will be in future years.

Sam Docherty

Let’s be honest, this is the Carlton player that most fantasy footy players wanted to see in this game. Given his discounted pricing & his previous averages, fitness & form were things that needed ticking off. Well, he’s certainly back to fitness – playing pretty much the whole game (albeit he suggested post-game that he did cramp late).

As for form? He did seem rusty early however grew into the match as it went on and really started to get some of those mark-kick combos in defense and up onto the wing. An excellent first up game for him all things considered.

Please read our full preseason take on him from the 50 Most Relevant Series here.

Mark Pittonet

Had a decent game but only played the 2nd half and that up against Lobb & High Dixon in the ruck. Kreuzer looked really good in the first half so doubtful that Pittonet plays unless Kreuzer gets injured (which, let’s be honest, does happen from time to time). A cheap ruck option for us but unless he’s named Round 1 it seems a premium price too far at this stage.