#30 Most Relevant | Elliot Yeo

Read Time:6 Minute, 9 Second

For three consecutive seasons, Elliot Yeo has had horrible luck with injuries. The three seasons prior, he delivered premium-level scores across the formats. Entering the 2023 season, the question isn’t about his scoring potential, but can he finally get some luck with his health?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Elliot Yeo
Age: 29
Club: West Coast
Position: Defender

2022 Highest Score:
84 Vs Geelong (AFLFantasy)
102 Vs Essendon (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
152 Vs Fremantle | AFLFantasy (2017)
150 Vs Gold Coast | SuperCoach (2018)

2022 Average:
57.4 (AFLFantasy)
68 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $337,000
AFLFantasy Price: $625,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $469,000

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Whenever you don’t see someone play to their potential, it can be easy to forget what they are like when fully fit and uninhibited. Elliot Yeo is a powerfully built midfielder who, at a stoppage, is the perfect midfielder. He’s offensively a beast at getting the clearance, he’s defensively a menace, and his workrate is elite. In addition, Yeo is athletically gifted with an excellent overhead mark and has shown an ability to play down back and become a brilliant weapon for the Eagles.

Sadly for himself, Eagles fans, and fantasy footy coaches, he’s struggled with injuries for the past three seasons. He’s played only 27 games over the past three seasons and hasn’t played more than 12 in that timeframe. He genuinely couldn’t have had worse luck. Even in 2022, he missed games due to covid, concussion and hamstring issues. The two seasons prior, it was serious groin and calf issues. 429,000. That’s the number of results you get when you search ‘Elliot Yeo Injuries.’

Even with horrible luck last year, he popped a 102 & 88 in SuperCoach, plus an 80 and 84 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. Not bad for a guy who started in five games last year but only played out the game in three matches.

Between 2017-2019 we saw Yeo at full flight and his scoring pedigree on full display. He missed two games in these three seasons and averaged 98.3, 106.7 and 102.7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 102.1, 107.8 and 107.6. In these seasons, he scored in every column imaginable and was among the most underrated fantasy premiums. Yes, it’s multiple years since he’s delivered scores like this, but the ability to score like this is proven. It’s not a forecast hope like others around his price point.

Over the past few seasons, we’ve been robbed of seeing Yeo at full flight. Thankfully, he can only try to be in full health and have a strong preseason. All other past things are in the past and cannot be changed. Thankfully, the current news is that he’s ‘flying’ in the preseason. All club media reporting is looking sharp, using his skills well and is among the standouts on the track. Should this maintain over the next few months, regardless of whether he plays as a midfielder or defender, it’d be very difficult to overlook him in your side come round one.

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MY TAKE

The question has never been can Elliot Yeo produce fantasy scores? 2017-2019 scoring history demonstrates his ability. Instead, the uncertainty comes around if he get through the preseason without a hiccup?

When it comes to injury history, you are only injury prone until it’s disproven. And you are durable until your not. For years, Brett Deledio was one of the most durable players in the league, yet in his final few seasons, he could barely string two games together. Brad Crouch could barely play over fifteen games in a season for most of his time at the Crows. Now, he’s barely missed a match in his past two years as a Saint. Just because someone has a history doesn’t mean that will occur. It means that should he have an injury; you cannot be surprised by it.

Starting these ‘injury-prone’ players is the best way to offset the risk. If an injury does occur, you have banked every good score available but also spent just one trade, not multiple, on removing him from your side. The extra benefit in starting him instead of viewing him as an upgrade target is you maximise his value.

Sometimes a players role is intrinsically linked to the role they play. But with Yeo, that’s not as much of a concern. He’s shown his ability to score as a premium as an intercepting defender, a versatile forward, and through the midfield. So no matter where he plays in the preseason games, he’s not losing relevance in my eyes.

We’ve got three potential outcomes with Yeo. The first is that injury occurs early in the season, and he fails to generate points on the field or cash. And while not ideal, it can be offset easily with a move to snag the defender stepping stone or cash cow that you missed. Scenario Two, he becomes a viable stepping stone and becomes your ticket to a topline premium. That can be after the first 6-8 weeks or at the West Coast round 14 bye. Lastly, he becomes a premium that is good enough to hold until a late-season injury hits or for the season, much like we did with George Hewett last year. Option three of all scenarios can be hoped for, but it is the one you should be least banking on.

Should the tremendous run of fitness and health maintain, then I have zero concerns about selecting him. However, one setback and I’ll be abandoning the Yeo ship.

DRAFT DECISION

Where Elliot Yeo goes on your draft day will be determined by two things. One when you host it in contrast to the season starting. And secondly, how Yeo is travelling. Currently, it’s good news on the front of his health. Should that maintain, I can see coaches drafting him, hoping he could return D2 value, but only cost the D3 drafting range.

I will only avoid selecting him on draft day if you’ve already selected numerous injury-risk players. For Example, if you’ve picked Aaron Hall and Nick Vlastuin with your first two defenders, I’d be looking for more stability. That could be a headache your inviting into your life, regardless of how large the upside is.

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#31 Most Relevant | Will Phillips

Read Time:4 Minute, 55 Second

After a solid debut season, injury ruined the 2022 season of Will Phillips, and he didn’t play a game all year. The former early draft selection is fit, firing and ready to make a mark in 2023.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Will Phillips
Age: 20
Club: North Melbourne Kangaroos
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score:
Did Not Play

Career Highest Score:
66 Vs Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2021)
73 Vs Sydney | SuperCoach (2021)

2022 Average:
Did Not Play

SuperCoach Price: $158,300
AFLFantasy Price: $270,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $237,300

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Not much went well for North Melbourne in 2022. The club got their second consecutive wooden spoon, sacked their coach, star Jason Horne-Francis demanded a trade, and Will Phillips failed to play a game after getting struck down with Glandular Fever.

Phillips is a powerful midfielder. As a junior, he showcased his clean hands and was elite at clearing the ball out of tightly contested situations. While it has yet to be on display much at the AFL level, he’s a fierce tackler and knows where to go to accumulate the footy. He’s the perfect guy to replace the departure of JHF.

In 2019 as a junior at Oakleigh Chargers, he averaged 22 touches, four tackles and 2.6 marks per game from his ten NAB League outings. While there were some question marks around whether North should’ve selected Phillips at pick three, it had nothing to do with Will. It was more to do with the obvious need for North to add some key position forward presence. Will was ranked head and shoulders as the best pure midfielder from the 2020 draft class.

From his fourteen games of AFL, he averaged eleven possessions, two marks and two tackles per game. During the season, he had only two games that he attended over 40% of centre bounces. Regulalrly he was being used as a pressure forward. It’s why he entered the 2022 season with MID/FWD status. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 44 and had just two scores above 60. While, for SuperCoach, his average of 48 four scores over 60, including a 73.

The greatest appeal for many with Will is that he’s priced as a cash cow across the formats. And ultimately, that’s the primary reason he’s inside the fifty most relevant. But his relevance is greater than this. Most cash cows have an element of forecast and uncertainty about whether or not they can perform at the elite level. In Will’s case, he might have had little opportunity in 2021, but we know that he has shown moments that he belongs at the AFL level.

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MY TAKE

With AFL clubs back from Christmas break, the footy news is coming out from clubs. Naturally, North Melbourne needs a feel-good story, and there’s not much better than a former high draft selection finally back to full health and training well. So it’s no surprise that whenever any player or coach speaks to the media, Will Phillips returns to health, and his strong preseason is the first thing mentioned. Phillps told fans via the club’s website, “I started from a pretty low base but I feel like I’m in a position now to be able to ramp up my training and hopefully get involved in the practice matches in a few weeks.

Earlier in the preseason, we added LDU and Ben Cunnington to the fifty most relevant we’ve discussed at length the North Melbourne midfield mix and how they might structure up. Regardless of what Clarko does, I see Phillips getting plenty of midfield opportunities. There are some Joel Selwood and Lachie Neale tendencies about his game. The club is knee-deep in a rebuild, and Clarko has shown early days in his time at Hawthorn, he’s happy to expose younger players early in their career to take on big responsibilities.

The job of your cash cows is to do one thing. That is to generate money as quickly as possible so that you can upgrade your team’s premiums. The thing that stops cash generation quickest is having a cash cow getting infrequent games. With playing, the price can move. I’m so comfortable adding Will to the fifty most relevant because if he’s fit, North Melbourne will want to get 20+ games of football into him.

Don’t get too cute; you’ll pick him if he’s named round one. And that makes plenty of sense. The only reason not to select him is if we get an abundance of midfield cows with comparable scoring, identical job security and at a cheaper price point.

DRAFT DECISION

In a single-season draft, Will Phillips will get selected. This is because he was such a high-end draft pick from his draft class, plus the preseason conversations about him in salary cap formats will keep him in draft coaches peripheral knowledge. But he’ll be a late-round selection that will populate our extended squads on the bench.

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#32 Most Relevant | Zach Merrett

Read Time:6 Minute, 46 Second

Zach Merrett has been a staple premium in our midfield for over half a decade. As we enter another season, does the trend continue, or will we start to see his scoring decline?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Zach Merrett
Age: 27
Club: Essendon Bombers
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score:
172 Vs North Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
150 Vs Richmond (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
172 Vs North Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2022)
168 Vs Sydney | SuperCoach (2021)

2022 Average:
107.2 (AFLFantasy)
112.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $617,500
AFLFantasy Price: $949,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $972,800

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Zach Merrett has been one of the most dependable fantasy midfield premiums. What makes Merrett so damaging as a footballer, not just a fantasy prospect, is that he’s one of the hardest-working players in the league. Zach uses his workrate to get into space and create an option for his teammates in traffic. And when he gets the ball, he rarely wastes it.

It was another strong season statistically for Zach; he ranked second by average for uncontested possessions, sixth for disposals, eighth for inside 50s and tenth for score involvements. This was equally impressive, given he missed three matches with a serious ankle injury.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam point of view, he averaged 107.1. That places him seventh by midfielders by average and ninth across the whole format by average. He scored twelve times over 100, ten of which were over 110, six over 120 and two over 130, including his career-high 172. To go alongside this strong scoring ceiling is a high-scoring floor. He had an additional three scores between 90-99, and in two tagged games, he had just two under 80 all year.

In SuperCoach, his average of 112.1, he had the eleventh highest average in the game and ninth for all midfielders. He scored thirteen tons across the season, eleven above 110, eight over 120, seven over 130 and four 140 or higher. Alongside this, he had three games where he scored below 90 across all 2022.

There was a patch of six games last year where you were cursing his name if you didn’t have Merrett on your side. Between rounds 15-20, he averaged 134.5 in SuperCoach, with a top score of 147 and only one score below 130 in this hot streak. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he went at an average of 132 with a top score of 172 and a lowest score of 118. What’s crazy about this season is that as good as it was, it’s his lowest seasonal average over the previous three years.

From twenty-two games in 2021, he delivered seventeen AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons, seven of them were above 120, and three times he scored 140 or higher. To go with this high ceiling is one of the safest top-end basement scores. Only twice did he dip his scores below 80. By the year’s close, he ranked ninth for total points, while his average of 110.3 leaves him also ranked ninth.

Over in SuperCoach for 2021, he also scored seventeen tons; eight were above 120, six over 130 and one was his career-high 168. In addition, in only two games did he drop his scores under 90. His average of 114.9 is ranked fourteenth, and he’s twelfth for points.

Since 2016 Merrett has averaged over 100 across all formats and had four seasons averaging over 110. Over the past six years, Zach’s been one of if not the most reliable players to deliver a season average of 100+. Visually, here’s what it looks like.

Over the past seven seasons, Merrett has missed just five footy games. He missed three matches this year with syndesmosis surgery, but outside of 2022, he hasn’t missed more than one game in a single season since 2016. Alongside his high-scoring consistency are his sensational levels of availability & durability.

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MY TAKE

What makes Zach Merrett such a good fantasy performer? Simple, his diverse range of scoring avenues. He can win the ball on the inside and use his elite endurance to get into space outside. Equally, he applies strong defensive pressure without the ball.

In 2022 not only did we see the best scoring of Merrett, but we also saw the challenges of owning him when he got tagged out of games and barely scored like a cash cow. As much as nobody wants to receive premiums scoring poorly, Merrett’s ‘tag’ games only really hurt when you trade into these lower scores and have missed the big scoring games beforehand.

For example, in round 20, he scored 172 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 140 in SuperCoach. The following week he went 55 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 72 in SuperCoach. If you traded into him beyond this, it stung big time! If you didn’t, he averaged 113.5 for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 105.5 in SuperCoach over that fortnight.

As much as the tag historically has been and potentially will be again a challenge at times for him, I believe there’s a larger, more pertinent question at hand. Is that how the Essendon midfield manifests in 2023 under new coach Brad Scott?

What’s the structure? They might not be the strongest options, but they have plenty of options. Alongside Merrett, Darcy Parish, Dylan Shiel & Jye Caldwell have been on regular rotations. Throw in the next generation of options like Ben Hobbs, Archie Perkins and the yet-to-debut Elijah Tsatas, who should all see increased opportunities. And lastly, guys like Andrew McGrath, Nick Martin, Jake Stringer, and Andrew McGrath have all historically had moments and matches in the midfield. Thankfully as the pre-season continues, clarity will eventuate.

The question marks around the Essendon midfield mix have been floating for years. This isn’t new under Brad Scott’s coaching era. And yet every year, Merrett continues to be a key man in the midfield and score well across the formats.

At his price point, you’re starting him not just because you believe he’s set to be a topline premium midfielder but because you also believe he’s a captaincy candidate most weeks. If you don’t view him as a potential VC/C option in your opening few weeks of the season, then he’s someone to view as an upgrade target more than a starting squad option.

DRAFT DECISION

Zach Merrett is another example of how their draft ranks will defer depending on the format. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, his average from 2022 and previous scoring will place him as an M1 in most drafts. The variable will be how many union midfielders go off the draft board in the first round. I see him as a popular second-round selection.

For SuperCoach, while he is ranked as the ninth best midfielder by 2022 average, ranked below him are Jack Steele, Andrew Brayshaw and Patrick Cripps. I’d be surprised if Merrett’s ADP has him ahead of these guys. He’s likelier to go as an M2 and start flying off draft boards in the third or early fourth round.

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#33 Most Relevant | Tom Green

Read Time:6 Minute, 9 Second

Sometimes all a player needs to become a premium fantasy scorer is an opportunity. In the case of Tom Green, several vacancies with the Giants midfield opportunities have been created, and at the Coaches Panel, we believe he’s ready to maximise it.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Green
Age: 21
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score:
133 Vs Sydney (AFLFantasy)
164 Vs Sydney (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
133 Vs Sydney | AFLFantasy (2022)
164 Vs Sydney | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average:
84.9 (AFLFantasy)
97.1 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $534,600
AFLFantasy Price: $752,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $770,300

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Over the past few seasons in the broader football media landscape, not just in fantasy footy circles, a constant narrative conversation has been held. The discussion has been around just how stacked the GWS Giants midfield is and how they can get everyone a slice of the midfield pie. Yet despite the squeeze, Tom Green has provided moments that have made the football public stop and say, ‘this kid has got something special about him.’

As a junior, Tom was often contrasted to Patrick Cripps because of his power and ability to get into every contested ball situation and somehow come away with the football. His ability to win the hot footy, his clean hands and his ability to seemingly have the ball on a string became even more evident last year. In 2022 he averaged 14th in the league for contested possessions and 20th for handballs per game.

Overall his 2022 season saw him take his game to new heights and end the year with career-best stats and his best season in fantasy football. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam last year, he averaged 84.9, which included six tons, including his career-high 133 in round one against the Swans. On top of this, he had an additional three scores between 90-99 and four more over 80. For SuperCoach, he scored eleven tons, five of them over 115, including 125, 147 & 167. In addition, he had four additional scores of 90+ on his way to averaging 97.1.

The season was solid overall, but it was his scoring over the opening five to eight weeks. Between rounds 1-5, he averaged 124.8 in SuperCoach and 105.8 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. From rounds 1-8, he averaged 99 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 116 in SuperCoach.

Green has plenty of inbuilt value on his price. Alongside the potential value of starting price vs his opening few months of scoring is the fact he has value inbuilt to his late role flip in the Giants midfield. Across the formats, his scoring dipped below 70 on four occasions.

These four scores all came in the last five games of the season. During this period, we saw multiple changes in the Giants midfield. Despite him leading the Giants CBA’s over the season, we saw incredible volatility with his role during these five games. Additionally, some names that had spent no or low time as a centre bounce midfielder started to pick them up. Harry Perryman had three games where he attended over 89% of the CBA’s. Jacob Hopper also returned from injury and started to pick up opportunities.

Are you looking for a midfielder who offers potential value and has the capacity and opportunity to push into the top tier of midfield premiums? Then Tom Green must be a consideration for you.

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MY TAKE

Whenever you select a player, there is one thing underpinning that selection. It’s the narrative. The story you tell yourself of why a player will do a certain thing. In Tom Green’s scenario, a primary undercurrent will pull you to select him as the primary midfielder in the revolutionized GWS Giants midfield.

During the offseason, Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto departed the Giants, leaving two players with over 50% centre bounce attendance each from the previous seasons. How will the new coaching regime cover these losses and transform the Giants? No matter how you look at it, Tom Green has to be pivotal to what GWS does in the midfield.

At 21 years of age, regardless of how Adam Kingsley wants to structure the midfield, it is centred around Tom. If it’s holding some more experience with Josh Kelly, Stephen Coniglio and Callan Ward as primary role players Green is still the centrepiece. If they go for a younger combination of Harry Perryman, Lachie Ash or Finn Callaghan, it still has Tom at the core of it.

Sometimes we overcomplicate things in the preseason; we make clear and simple narratives, incredibly complex and complicated. Tom Green will be in the middle of what the Giants do this year and for many years.

Rather than questioning his role, the conversations need to be more centred on two bigger and more important questions. First, what will be the Giants game style in 2023 and will it be conducive to fantasy scoring? Ultimately that will be proven once we see how the club plays against others in the preseason.

The other big question is, are there better options at a comparable price point? Yesterday, we highlighted this with Caleb Serong. We’ve got a handful of players who could elevate themselves to the topline of midfield premiums. Tom is just one of those, but he’s not the only guy that needs to be considered.

If you are in the market for a value selection of a guy that could become a premium, then Tom has to be a consideration.

DRAFT DECISION

Tom Green’s draft position is entirely depending on the format you use for the format you use. For example, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam scoring, he’s ranked by the previous average just outside the top fifty midfielders. But there’s not a world that I see him sliding as late as an M5, even hoping he’s available as your M4 feels too late, given his upside. So in this format, if you want him, you’ll need to secure him as an M3. That might feel early to get him around the sixth or seventh round, but if you want him, that’s the draft range you’ll need to leap to guarantee to secure him.

In SuperCoach, he’ll go as early as M2 but will be a popular M3. If he goes as well as Rids predicts in the corresponding podcast, then even at M2, he’s valuable!

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#34 Most Relevant | Caleb Serong

Read Time:7 Minute, 11 Second

Since he walked into the AFL, the fantasy community has been waiting for the premium season of Caleb Serong. He’s shown as glimpses over the past few seasons, is 2023 the year he puts it all together?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Caleb Serong
Age: 21
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score:
126 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy)
128 Vs Collingwood (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
135 Vs West Coast | AFLFantasy (2021)
143 Vs North Melbourne | SuperCoach (2021)

2022 Average:
87.7 (AFLFantasy)
90.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $498,800
AFLFantasy Price: $777,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $796,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Over the past few seasons, the Fremantle Dockers have drafted incredibly well and secured some elite high-end talent. One of those is midfielder Caleb Serong. Ever since he broke into the side in 2020, the eventual rising star winner has shown glimpses of his potential in numerous seasons.

His 2022 season started slowly as he had an interrupted preseason with a knee injury. Eventually, he succumbed to it and missed a few games. Despite this, Serong still elevated his game to some strong new levels. He ended the year ranked inside the top twenty of the league for stoppage clearances, handbells, contested possessions and clearances per game.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he scored seven, including 112, 113 & a season-high 126. He had seven games where he scored below 80, but four came in his first five games where he was working his way through his injury niggle. In SuperCoach, he scored eight tons, four above 110, including 117, 119 & 127. He also dipped seven times under 80, but like in AFLFantasy, four were in the opening five weeks. While not ideal, having this many sub-80 scores is quite common for younger players. The potential upside here is that if he can lift his scoring basement, let alone pop his ceiling frequency, he can reach a triple-digit average.

Whenever you’re looking at a breakout candidate like Serong, you’re looking for pockets of scoring to provide you confidence that they can score like a premium. He had six weeks last year between rounds 8-13, averaging 102.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 109.3 in SuperCoach. If he can maintain scoring like that for the 2023 season, he’ll not just push the line of a top-ten midfielder, but it could be a competition-winning pick.

For the two previous seasons, in 2020 and 2021, we saw more glimpses of his scoring pedigree. He averaged 82.8 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and scored five tons. In SuperCoach, he averaged 92.3 and scored seven tons. However, his final three games of the season caught the fantasy community’s attention. He scored 118, 117, & 116 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 115, 135, and 103 in SuperCoach.
He’s shown potential in glimpses over multiple stretches of games over multiple seasons. However, the opportunity for Serong to elevate himself to premium midfield status is ahead of him, and he’s a strong chance to become one.

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MY TAKE

After that strong scoring trio of tons to end the 2021 season, Caleb Serong entered 2022 with plenty of expectation that he would finally break out. Although we saw pockets of it as the season went on, his poor start due to the knee complaint ruined the hype surrounding him. When a player is hyped in the community and they ‘fail’, it creates a smell on them that’s hard to shake. The positive for prospective owners is that, arguably, Serong is better placed now than he was twelve months ago to transition into premium midfield averages.

In the offseason, the Dockers had three significant changes in their midfield. First, the retirement of David Mundy. Even in his last season, he attended 65% of centre bounces of the club. Second is the departure of wingmen Blake Acres to Carlton. And lastly, the addition of Jaeger O’Meara from Hawthorn. But do these movements affect the role or scoring forecast for Serong?

Ultimately, we’ll get these answers as the preseason continues, but my immediate response is that the three changes don’t negatively impact him. Earlier in the article, we highlighted that his statistical strength is around when contested footy and in clearances. Fremantle will not push him out to a wing. Their offensive and defensive midfield look stronger with him at centre bounces and stoppages around the ground.

One of the most obvious reasons to overlook Serong is the high volume of comparably priced options. Luke Davies-Uniacke, Tom Green, Adam Cerra, Jai Newcombe and Chad Warner are within a few grand of his price point. Even former #1 draft pick Lachie Whitfield is in that pricing space. Looking at all these names, you can build a compelling case for why you should select them. All are capable of elevating themselves to the next level. In the cases of Green, Cerra & Newcombe, it’s about opportunity & responsibility in the midfield. For Whitfield, it’s about the drive to prove himself as one of the best players in the league under the new coach. While for LDU & Warner, it’s the evolution of being their sides bright young stars and becoming the #1 option.

What’s the upside narrative for Serong? It’s about the early fixture for the Dockers. Over the opening six weeks of the season, they play St Kilda (A), North Melbourne (H), West Coat (H), Adelaide (A), Gold Coast (H) and Western Bulldogs (H). That runs both in teams, and the venue cannot get much tastier.

If you play AFLFantasy, Serong needs to be genuinely considered. The key will be to set scoring benchmarks over the first two-three weeks. If he fails to deliver, pivot quickly to the flying stepping stone. If he nails it, he does have the capacity to transform into your M8 by the conclusion of the season. Remember, often, the first 4-6 trades you make in this format are correctional moves.

In SuperCoach, he does get hurt by his disposal efficiency. The upside is that it means he’ll never get tagged. But any points lost through poor ball use are offset by his high-quality contested ball numbers. So it’ll create a strong scoring bump if he can tidy up his efficiency even by 5%.

With more trades in DreamTeam and SuperCoach than ever before, coaches can afford to attack the game differently. So while in previous eras, you needed to view Serong as a season-long hold. But I don’t believe you have to anymore. He can still be someone that is used as a premium runner. So when he scores like a premium for six weeks, you pocket the $100k+ you’ve saved instead of starting one at his spot. You can then reinvest those dollars on top of another player. Then, after your stretch of games, you can sideways trade to a fallen premium in the midfield.

There isn’t the preseason hype around Serong, but one preseason match is all it takes for that to change.

DRAFT DECISION

Based on his averages from last year, he’s ranked as the 45th-best midfielder in SuperCoach and the 44th-best in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. On the draft day, that’d place Caleb Serong at M5. But I’d be shocked to see him be available at that point of the draft. Given his apparent upside, M4 will be a more normative ADP for him.

The beauty of a draft is that everyone values players differently. I can see someone reaching for him at M3 in some leagues because they want to own him. And while it’s a touch early, sometimes you need to reach 10-15 spots earlier to secure the player you want.

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#35 Most Relevant | Hayden Young

Read Time:5 Minute, 57 Second

It’s only a matter of time before Hayden Young becomes one of the most damaging defenders in the AFL. Is 2023 the year we see Hayden as a top-tier fantasy defender? He’s incredibly relevant for the coming year and will be for many more seasons.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Hayden Young
Age: 21
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Defender

2022 Highest Score:
132 Vs Richmond (AFLFantasy)
142 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
132 Vs Richmond | AFLFantasy (2022)
142 Vs Hawthorn | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average:
87.6 (AFLFantasy)
92.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $508,200
AFLFantasy Price: $776,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $795,200

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

The 2019 AFL draft looks like becoming a fine draft for the Fremantle Football club. The club had three consecutive top-ten picks and secured Caleb Serong, Liam Henry and Hayden Young. The trio’s skills complement each other and should all be a key pillar in the current Dockers resurgence up the ladder. Young is elite as an interceptor and by delivering the ball by foot. Whether it be opening up the game with a kick on the 45 or delivering a 55+ metre rocket down the wings of Optus Stadium. Hayden is an elite footballer, and he’s only getting better!

2022 was a breakout season for Hayden and his Dockers. After battling numerous injuries in his first two seasons, he was able to play twenty matches this year. He would’ve played every game but missed multiple matches with covid. Last year he averaged 23 possessions, seven marks and two tackles per game.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he averaged 87.6 across the season. That places him as the sixteenth-best and most expensive defender. He scored three tons last year, including his career-high score of 132. To go with this ceiling is his low ratio of sub-80 scores. Last year he scored under 80 just four times and below 75 twice.

For SuperCoach, he scored five tons, three of which were over 120, including 139 & 142. Like in AFLFantasy, his ability to hold a high-scoring floor for a third-year player is exceptional, with only four scores below 80 all year.

Young’s scoring already has him on the verge of premium defensive status, but last year there was a run of games where he scored at the levels that would see him score comparable to the top ten defenders already. Between rounds 3-20 in AFLFantasy, his scoring dipped below 80 in just one match. He scored his two biggest tons of the season, 119 & 132, averaging 92.7. In SuperCoach, between rounds 8-15, he averaged 97 for seven weeks & his lowest score was 80.

It’s interesting to note that in both of the Fremantle finals last year, he scored 120 + 105 in SuperCoach and 122 + 98 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. It doesn’t count, but what it does tell us when the footy is hot, and the stakes are high, Hayden Young has no problem stepping into the moment.

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MY TAKE

Whatever you’ve heard, don’t fall for the notion that Hayden Young is injury prone. Firstly, he played 20 of 22 games this year. And had it not been for covid and isolation protocols, he would’ve played the full season. The two seasons prior, he suffered a serious ankle injury that required season-ending surgery. He did nothing wrong but felt the full impact of a contest on top of him. The other he battled with a hamstring issue. Has he had some bad luck? Absolutely! But no, he’s not injury prone.

So, where can the scoring improvement come from for Young? Thankfully, in multiple areas. However, one of the most obvious is his taking a greater share of kick-in duties. Earlier in the article, we highlighted how clean and proficient his kicking is. However, when it came to bringing the ball back into play from behind, Young only got that opportunity 24 times. He was ranked third at the club in this stat. The second was Brennan Cox, with 48. And coming in first with the monopoly share is Luke Ryan with 136. Even by picking up a further kick-in per game and holding his 2022 average, he’d average enough to be considered a premium defender. Imagine what could happen if he got a more level share.

With Young, there are no tag concerns. If any Fremantle player is getting tagged, it’s Andrew Brayshaw. And then, beyond that, it’s likely Jordan Clark will stop the Dockers outside run.

There are a few key questions you need to ask yourself. And how you answer them will determine which pricier defenders you should select. Firstly, what role do you believe he’ll average? Second, what do you believe a defender will need to average to be considered a premium? Lastly, is this a player you’d be happy with in your ideal completed side at the end of the year? You’ll see if Young is in the mix for you based on how you’ve answered those questions.

Could Young’s scoring regress rather than increase? Of course. However, retention of his current average would be more likely than a regression. While we always want the best possible scorers in our line, sometimes close enough is good enough. For example, the gap between the sixth-best defender to the tenth-best in SuperCoach is five points per game and less than two points in AFLFantasy. The average gap between the tenth and the fifteenth is 3.5 points per game in SuperCoach and two in AFLFantasy. So even if Hayden doesn’t become a ‘top 10,’ he could still be enough, given the money you could save by selecting him and reinvesting that cash on top of another player.

DRAFT DECISION

On draft day, some coaches use their own curated draft rankings. Others draft using other content creators rankings, like from the Draft Doctors or us. And some use the previous year’s averages as the rankings guide. Whichever method you use, when it comes to Hayden Young, all roads will lead to him being selected as a D2.

Personally, I’d be happy to take him it D1 if it means I can go heavy on the MID or FWD line selections.

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#36 Most Relevant | Nick Daicos

Read Time:6 Minute, 37 Second

Nick Daicos gave us one of the most spectacular debut seasons in the history of fantasy football. As he enters into season number two, will he catch the second-year Blues? Or will he continue his pathway to being one of the best players in the AFL and become a premium defender in 2023?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Nick Daicos
Age: 20
Club: Collingwood Magpies
Position: Defender

2022 Highest Score:
147 Vs Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
163 Vs Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
147 Vs Adelaide | AFLFantasy (2022)
163 Vs Adelaide | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average:
86.7 (AFLFantasy)
91.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $502,500
AFLFantasy Price: $769,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $787,800

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

The hype around Nick Daicos debut season was incredible. Even more so than Sam Walsh’s debut year, the expectation that he’d be a fantasy scorer from day one. And he did not disappoint. Winning the rising star, playing all 22 games and elevating himself as a leader at the Magpies. He averaged 26 possessions, five score involvements, four marks, four rebound 50s, three inside 50s and two tackles.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored seven tons, three of them over 115, including his career-high 147 against the Crows. To go with those tons was five additional 80+. His SuperCoach season was even stronger. He scored six tons, four above 120, including 143 & 163. On top of these, he had six more scores over 80.

Often first-year players see a scoring slide as the season goes along. However, that wasn’t the case for Daicos. In his first eleven games, he averaged 80 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 78 in SuperCoach. In his final eleven games, he averaged 93.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102.8 in SuperCoach.

Eventually, Nick will move into the midfield. But I expect his movement to be more gradual this year. The arrival of Tom Mitchell adds further depth to that midfield. Daicos became the general of that backline alongside Darcy Moore. For what the Pies might gain in the midfield by moving him up the ground more, they could lose just as much in their ball movement rebounding out of defence. Current Collingwood track watchers have him training with the defence group and in match simulations playing at half-back and pushing up the ground. That can change as the preseason goes on, but it’s what’s happening now.

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MY TAKE

One of my favourite things to track statistically in fantasy football is trends. They help you to see changes or developments towards something new. The overarching trend of Nick Daicos is that he’s heading towards being one of the most prolific ball winners and ball users we’ve seen in the AFL. From his junior days, under 18 championships, and now to the elite of the AFL, there is no doubt he’ll become a fantasy premium for the better part of the decade. But what does his 2023 season hold for us?

When you look at the trend of what happens to players that eventually become fantasy premiums, there is a common pathway. Year one, the cash cow season. Here they make you money and provide glimpses of the future premium potential. Year Two, the regression. The demands of being in an AFL side take time to physically and mentally adjust. Year Three, the breakout. It starts to click, and the gap between their ceiling and the scoring basement begins to close. Lastly, in year four, the establishment. They become out-and-out premiums.

It’s rare for a player to not just maintain or grow their averages in the second season but to become a premium in their line. And if you start with Nick Daicos, it’s because you believe he will be a premium. Only a few have been able to elevate themselves into premium territory.

In 2011 when listed as a MID/FWD, Nat Fyfe posted up an average of 98.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 108 in SuperCoach Jackson Macrae did it in 2014. He averaged 104 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 100 in SuperCoach. During the 2015 season, Zach Merrett was forward eligible and averaged 90 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 87.8 in SuperCoach. Melbourne premiership hero Clayton Oliver did it in 2017 when he averaged 101 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 111 in SuperCoach. In 2018, former Giant, now Tiger Tim Taranto, did it as a forward he averaged 90 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 88 in SuperCoach. And in 2019, Tim Kelly averaged 96.8 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 103.4 in SuperCoach.

There are a few more, but you see the point. Like any data trend, there are outliers, but it’s on the rare side that the premium leap happens in year #2. It’s not to say Daicos cannot do it, but he’ll need to buck the trend of the normative to do it.

Last year, Daicos was given plenty of space and time to deliver the ball. That combination of his footy IQ, the Magpies defensive structure, and the fact that opposition teams didn’t put huge pressure on him early in the season. But does that change in 2023? Should opposition teams tag a second-year player? He’s certainly worthy of attention, and a trend we saw last year was that opposition sides were choosing to limit the freedom of movement of rebounding defenders. If you owned Jordan Dawson or Jack Sinclair last year, you know the pain it can bring. Who knows if teams will continue this, but it’s something to ponder. Even if he does cop a tag, he’s such a smart footballer I’d back him in quickly to learn how to work through them.

The only format open to the general public and has players ownership available to be viewed is AFLFantasy. While I was aware there’d be plenty of coaches keen on owning Daicos, I was shocked to see how high his ownership was. He is currently in 39.93% of teams. Outside of cash cows, he’s the most selected defender in the game! With ownership that high, especially if it translates across DreamTeam and SuperCoach, I’m very tempted to take him on and go against him. On the flip side, with that high ownership, you’ll be playing catchup quickly if he flies early!

DRAFT DECISION

Preseason hype and draft timing will be the two variables that impact Nick Daicos’ draft ranking. In SuperCoach, based on his 2022 average, he’s ranked 25, which would place him in the range of a D3 selection. But if you want him, I’d be shocked if you got him there. You’ll need to fork out a D2 price for him, and he could start flying off draft boards in round six for the super keen coaches.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s currently ranked by the previous average as the 17th-best defender. That places him as a D2 historical selection. However, I can see coaches reaching up to secure him as a D1 and getting him as early, around rounds four or five.

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#37 Most Relevant | Christian Salem

Read Time:6 Minute, 8 Second

One of the great thrills in fantasy football is when you nail a stepping stone midfielder, and they turn into a premium that you can keep for the season. Christian Salem has the proven potential to be that for you in 2023.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Christian Salem
Age: 27
Club: Melbourne Demons
Position: Defender

2022 Highest Score:
104 Vs Carlton (AFLFantasy)
104 Vs Collingwood (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
141 Vs Richmond | AFLFantasy (2021)
167 Vs Richmond | SuperCoach (2021)

2022 Average:
73.8 (AFLFantasy)
70.9 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $390,400
AFLFantasy Price: $653,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $670,100

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

The premiership defence of Melbourne had a rocky start from the opening night of the 2022 AFL premiership season. Within minutes of the bounce, Christian Salem suffered a knee injury that required surgery, and as a result, he didn’t play for three months until round 12.

Salem is super important to the structure of the side. His class and high footy IQ are so important and complement the skills of their intercepting defenders & their inside midfield bulls.

Last year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 73.8. It included two tons plus three additional scores between 90-99. His scoring fell below 70 on four occasions, but one of those was his injury-affected game. For SuperCoach, he averaged 70.9 last year, consisting of one ton, two additional scores of 90+ and a further two over 80. These numbers include four scores below 65, including his injury affected 5. Of the matches he played out the game, he averaged 81 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam 77.5 in SuperCoach.

Even without the injury-affected game in his average, it was still his lowest-scoring season since 2016. So between 2017-2021, while Salem may have never been a ‘top 6’ defender, he’s given us seasons multiple seasons where his scoring is on the edges of the top ten defenders. Looking closely at his past three seasons, you can see his potential upside and value in your starting squad based on the salary you’re outlaying to secure him.

In 2021, he scored nine tons in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and three additional scores to average 92.9. That same season in SuperCoach, he averaged 94.5, featuring ten tons and three more scores of 90+. In the ‘covid bubble’ season of 2020, 71.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, which using the adjusted averages algorithm, pushes out to 89.1. That year an 80 was a ‘100’, and he scored three times over 90 and six more times 70+. While for SuperCoach, he averaged 87.3 and scored 6 tons and a further two scores above 90. Lastly, in 2019 he averaged 89.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam; he posted six tons and four more scores between 90-99. And for SuperCoach, he averaged 90.4, five tons and four more scores 90+.

In summary, between 2019-2021, Christian Salem would regularly average in the high 80s to low 90s in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and low to mid-90s in SuperCoach. Priced at 71 in SuperCoach and 73 in AFLFantasy & DreamTeam, he’s got anywhere from 15-20 points per game of value.

There’s a false narrative that Salem is injury prone. But before last year’s once-off long-term injury, his recent history is very good. In the previous two seasons, he’s missed just two games and five since 2018.

For what he’ll cost you in contrast to what he’s got the proven pedigree of doing, he needs to be seriously considered by every coach this preseason.

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MY TAKE

It takes time to overcome a serious injury. When you miss over 50% of an AFL season, it significantly impacts your strength, fitness, confidence, and fantasy scoring. As you look over the data of players that return in the same season from long-term injuries, almost all suffer a fantasy scoring dip upon return vs career. Despite being different injuries, look at Josh Dunkley’s 2021 season as a reminder of what can happen to even some of the best fantasy prospects.

Twelve months ago, I did a podcast and an article on George Hewett in this series. He was priced at a comparable point to Christian Salem this year. Across the preseason in 2021, the upside was apparent to the community. His role in the team was clear, but many hesitated to select him for their starting squads. Why? Because they didn’t believe he could score well enough to become a premium. Ultimately, that was proven false. But that’s not the point. Hewett should never have picked with the plan to become a premium. Rather, he could become a pathway to one by trading into one via him.

I see similar parallels in the logic from Hewett last year and Salem this year. It is both inspiring coaches to select Christian and wrongly preventing coaches from considering him. With Salem, he has the history of being someone who can score on the fringes of the top 10-15 defenders across the formats.

There’s a clear consensus that Sam Docherty is the safest option to finish in the top handful of defenders across the formats. But beyond him, there are plenty of variables and strong dialogue across the formats about who’s a top-five defender. It’s another reason why I like Salem. As well as the potential of scoring ‘near enough’ he can provide you with a structure of having him at a D3/4 and ensuring you get your structure balance set.

It would help if you weren’t ruling players out like Salem at this point of the preseason. But you shouldn’t lock him in and throw away the key. So much can happen over the next 50+ days. In that time, injuries can emerge and create great value options at comparable prices. Cash cows can become clear. Game plans can evolve. The picture will become clearer as news breaks and preseason games start to happen.

For now, I have Salem as an important structural piece, but as the preseason evolves, that may change.

DRAFT DECISION

You could get some great mid and late-range draft options on draft day this year. And Christian Salem is one of them. He’s got the upside of being a D2, but you’ll not have to pay that price tag. You should be safely able to secure him at your D3 and, if you’re lucky, potentially your D4 spot.

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#38 Most Relevant | Jacob Hopper

Read Time:7 Minute, 28 Second

For years Jacob Hopper was seen as one of the future cornerstones of the GWS Giants midfield. But with a trade in the offseason to Richmond, he’ll now be a pillar that extends the Tigers run at the top of the ladder. But does the moving help or hurt his fantasy output?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jacob Hopper
Age: 25
Club: Richmond Tigers
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score:
83 Vs Western Bulldogs (AFLFantasy)
95 Vs Fremantle (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
133 Vs Gold Coast | AFLFantasy (2021)
137 Vs Richmond | SuperCoach (2021)

2022 Average:
66.1 (AFLFantasy)
67 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $332,000
AFLFantasy Price: $716,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $540,400

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2022 was a significant season that saw two major changes in his life. The first was he suffered a significant knee injury early in the season, and after round one, he played again in round 18. The other was he was traded to the Richmond Football Club.

Sometimes when we don’t see a player for a long period or see them performing below their abilities, we discard a player as relevant. But doing so to Jacob Hopper could be a disastrous call. When at full health, Hopper is one of the best-contested ball winners and one-touch clearance players in the AFL. In 2021 he ranked fourth for stoppage clearances and ninth for total clearances in the league. While in 2019, he was sixth for total stoppage clearances and eighth for total contested possessions.

Due to his knee injury and some instability around his midfield role late in the season, his fantasy scoring took a significant impact. Last year in AFLFantasy, his average of 66 consisted of only two games over 80 and a season-high score of 88. It’s similarly underwhelming in SuperCoach, with an average of 67, just two scores of 90+ and a season-high of 97.

The upside of a poor fantasy season/injuries is we get significant value for the upcoming season. Between 2019 – 2021 we got a better glimpse at the potential fantasy football output.

During 2019 for AFLFantasy, he averaged 93.5, scored nine tons and only had his scores dip below 75 twice. That same season in SuperCoach, he averaged 95.7, scored seven tons and had just one ton under 75.

The following season in 2020, he averaged 70.4 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. Using the adjusted averages algorithm, that’s an 88. In SuperCoach, he averaged 91 and posted five tons. While in 2021, for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, his average of 88.8 consisted of seven tons, including 126 & 133. And for SuperCoach, his average of 96.7 was a career-high. It featured eleven tons and four additional scores of 89 or above.

The value is undeniable when you look at the proven past scoring compared to his starting price. In AFLFantasy, he’s priced at an average of 80; for SuperCoach & DreamTeam, it’s at 60. So, in addition to his value based on past performances, he’s now at a side that should provide him additional scoring stability.

One thing that Hopper should benefit from at Richmond is clearly defined for him and his teammates. One of the challenges that GWS faced that Richmond doesn’t have is an overabundance of midfielders that they were trying to squeeze into their best 22. That meant, at times, players were forced out of the midfield rotation and into another area of the ground as their primary new role. At Richmond, this won’t be occurring. The club has identified an area of the ground they seek to improve, targeted Jacob & paid a high price at the trade table to secure him.

As a Tiger, Jacob will be used in the midfield and play to his strengths. That being contested footy, winning clearances and applying defensive pressure when the ball is in the opposition’s hand’s applying defensive pressure and presence.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Injuries are never fun. But there is always a positive lens through that we can view injuries that embeds value into players for the coming season. That’s exactly what happened to Jacob Hopper in 2023. With such a frustrating year from injury, the narrative can become that he’s an injury-prone player. However, nothing could be further from the truth based on his previous seasons history. Before 2022 he had missed just one game in the previous two seasons.

So much gets made about the Richmond game style being unfriendly for fantasy football. The Tigers ‘surge’ mentality of movement certainly doesn’t aid the teams overall fantasy numbers, but it’s certainly not a ruling that should be used to disregard players. There is one key reason that Richmond targeted Hopper. They recognise the need to bulk out the midfield unit. With Trent Cotchin aging, Dion Prestia often missing big chunks of the season with injury and Dustin Martin being eased into the back of his career, Richmond had to do something. And they did. They raided GWS and landed Jacob Hopper b Tim Taranto.

As a contested football beast and a clearance player, the Richmond outside surge shouldn’t affect his scoring output or potential. Richmond wants Hopper to stay inside ball and have uncontested possessions. They need him to win the contested footy. Last year Richmond had only five players ranked inside the AFL top 100 for contested possessions. Compare that to the Bulldogs and Demons, who had four inside the top 25. He’s been targeted for a reason. And that reason is to win the footy and farm it out to his team. This is a similar role to where he averaged his 90+ seasons at GWS.

Jacob Hopper is the personification of a proven stepping stone. To make him someone your holding for the season, he’d have to have a career-best year. But he’s not priced at that; you shouldn’t be picking him for it, and if he does, it’s only the cherry on top if that eventuates. Unlike others, at his price point, he’s a proven mid 90’s averaging midfielder.

The question isn’t can he do it; he’s shown that he can score in the range of 90 across multiple seasons and across multiple game formats. Your paying for a guy in SuperCoach & DreamTeam that’s potentially got upwards of 30 points per game of value. At the same time, he has upwards of 10-15 in AFLFantasy. Getting higher points per dollar return on these stepping-stone selections in your starting squad can be a season-defining season. Another variable that adds to the desire to own Jacob is the Richmond bye. With him off at round 15, you get the option of structuring your midfield upgrades around him.

If you play, SuperCoach and Hopper isn’t in your plans; you are overcomplicating the game. He’s $130,000 more expensive the Will Ashcroft and has had three consecutive seasons (2019-2021) where he’s averaged 90+. I know some coaches love to play a ‘guns and rookies’ approach in the midfield, but you should never be a slave to your preferred structure. Rather, your structure should be fluid and moveable annually based on where the value sits. Therefore, I’m taking Hopper’s value gift and locking him into my SuperCoach side.

In DreamTeam, he’s got the same potential value return but will likely have a different ownership volume. That said, if you’re in the market for a stepping stone, then Hopper is one of the best options in this format too. AFLFantasy, he’s not as ‘obvious’ a pick due to that format’s pricing, but he’s worth consideration. Additionally, he’s underpriced based on his proven previous potential.

DRAFT DECISION

Multiple variables always land in every draft. Whether that be the time of year, the number of coaches or squad sizes on the field. Despite all that, Jacob Hopper has the upside of an M3 but will likely only cost you an M5-M6 draft price tag. That means you should be able to get Hopper in the ‘teens’ portion of your draft.

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#39 Most Relevant | Darcy Cameron

Read Time:7 Minute, 50 Second

An injury is all it can take to make someone fantasy football relevant. In 2022 Darcy Cameron took his opportunity and became a hugely important selection across the formats. With Brodie Grundy now out of the picture, can Darcy continue his hot run of form and be one of the best selections in our starting squads?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Darcy Cameron
Age: 27
Club: Collingwood Magpies
Position: RUC/FWD

2022 Highest Score:
133 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy)
130 Vs Fremantle (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
133 Vs Hawthorn | AFLFantasy (2022)
130 Vs Fremantle | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average:
81.9 (AFLFantasy)
84.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $465,900
AFLFantasy Price: $725,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $743,500

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

There are two sides to the Darcy Cameron story in 2022. First, it’s a story of an opportunity being presented and of that opportunity being maximised. It’s about what happens when players get access to a role they’d never been granted. It’s the story of ‘DC’ playing with Brodie Grundy and then taking the mantle as the #1 ruckman when he goes out injured.

From rounds 2-6, it was a challenging start to the season for Darcy. He had one game where he started as the sub and another where he got subbed out with an alleged rib injury. In these five games, he averaged 12.4% attendance at centre bounces, one hitout, 8.4 possessions, 3.4 marks & one tackle. From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he averaged 47.8 and scored 71. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 46.6 with a top score of 72.

Then a significant change occurred. Brodie Grundy, on Anzac Day, smashed his knee against Essendon ruckman Sam Draper in a ruck contest. As a result, he injured his PCL. While the initial diagnosis was he’d miss up to three months, history now informs us that he’d miss the rest of the 2022 season.

From round seven until the season’s end, Darcy Cameron transitioned into the #1 ruck role and dominated. Then, between rounds 7-23, he saw a drastic spike in his possessions, hitouts, centre bounces, attendances and, most importantly, for us in his fantasy football output.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 92.6, scoring six tons, including a career-high score of 133. To go alongside this, Cameron had an additional four scores over 90. For SuperCoach, he averaged 96.5, eight tons, including 130 and four additional scores over 90. Visually, this is what it looks like.

The story of Darcy Cameron and his fantasy relevance is about more than just DC. It’s a reminder that every season we will see a player undertake a significant role change, and with it will come to a boom in scoring in contrast to the low output for your classic formats. The key is identifying the player that will fill the gap and jumping on quickly to maximize output. For coaches that jumped on super early, it was a move that paid massive dividends in cash generation, points scored and likely in your seasonal rankings.

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MY TAKE

I’m in a messenger group with a bunch of mates who all play fantasy football. Chances are, you’ve got yourself in a similar setup, maybe even multiple. When I asked this group, ‘who’s picking Darcy Cameron?’ I was met with two very clear but polarising perspectives. Several thought he was the easiest selection of the year; others wanted to avoid selecting him.

There are several reasons why coaches should be considering him. The first is that for his price, there are zero question marks around his role for the side. He will be the #1 ruck. You don’t let Brodie Grundy leave without that confidence. Recruit Dan McStay will play the mobile tall forward and, as we saw at Brisbane, can play some relief ruck minutes.

Second is the potential return on investment. He’s priced approximately ten points per game beneath what was delivered last year past the role change. As a ruckman, he averaged 92 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. If you put that average alongside our current forwards, he’d be ranked fifth for average and third for rucks. He averaged 96 in SuperCoach; by the average contrast, he’d be placed fifth for forwards and tenth for rucks. So even without improving his scoring, but just holding what he did, he is right in the top groups of both rucks and forwards. Third, speaking of DPP, it’s the extra flexibility his RUC/FWD status creates. Just ask coaches that had Tim English last year. It enabled you to loophole scores, cover donuts and even save a trade.

All of these reasons sound wonderful and valid. And, for the most part, they are. However, what I believe is running as the undercurrent for people considering Cameron is one big unspoken issue. That when it comes to the ruck division, plenty of coaches have yet to learn what to expect will happen or even know what they want to do. A ‘set & forget’ approach had been the normative tactic for so long. But with moves in the offseason, all of Brodie Grundy, Max Gawn and even Sean Darcy now have ruck-share concerns.

Beyond Tim English, there seems no consensus that any ruck is ‘safe’ to pay up to own. Rowan Marshall should also be in that same bracket, but I empathise with people’s hesitation. I don’t have these doubts. The uncertainty around the ruck division creates an added appeal to Cameron. Selecting him allows you to look at the line, flip him forward or trade him to the premium on either the ruck or forward line of your choosing.

But it’s for these same reasons people want to avoid Cameron. They want to avoid getting stuck with a ruck or forward that might be anywhere from 10-15 points per game beneath the premium benchmarks in either the ruck or forward line.

Will his scoring range be enough? Even if he maintains his scoring rate from 2022? Who’s to say that our ruck division cannot yet again return to multiple 105+ options? I can see a world where Grundy & Gawm complement each other, not eat into each other’s scoring. The same with Darcy & Jackson.

Last year were got elite premium forwards as mid-season DPP gains. Bailey Smith, Luke Parker and Marcus Bontempelli. Who’s to say in 2023, we don’t get a similar tier of options? Factoring in these variables is an exciting challenge in the game.

Our forward division is already stacked for premiums up the top, value selection in the middle and plenty of cows. While the ruck might be thin at the range or below Cameron, there are options. For example, Scott Lycett is cheaper in all formats and has had three 80+ seasons in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & three 90+ in SuperCoach. So as good as Cameron might be at his price point, he’s not the only consideration.

Being the number one ruckman in an AFL side does take a toll on you. And last year, it did with Cameron. As good as he started in the role, his scoring did start to slide across the format. In the final eight games of the year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged just 79 and went at 82 in SuperCoach.

He should hold or improve his fitness to play out the season. But equally, oppositions could also have more data and plans to combat him. Nothing is ever certain in fantasy footy.

Darcy is a great player to consider this pre-season because both sides of the argument of holding or fading hold weight. Both feel they are easy decisions and that the other side is overthinking the situation. So what he ends up delivering in the coming season is one of the season’s most interesting outcomes.

DRAFT DECISION

One of the hardest players to rank in 2023 is Darcy Cameron. Do people rank and draft him based on a particular positional status? Or does his DPP increase his ranking range? Game formats, league sizes and the number of participants will ultimately inform where he gets picked.

In SuperCoach, I can see her going in the range of an F2, which is around the sixth round. While in AFLFantasy, he’ll be an F1 for many and likely go a round or so earlier.

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About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

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