#40 Most Relevant | Errol Gulden

Read Time:6 Minute, 26 Second

Players rarely deliver a ton in their first game into the AFL, but Errol Gulden was able to do so. As he enters the mythical third-year breakout, could we see this Swan become the next big forward premium?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Errol Gulden
Age: 20
Club: Sydney Swans
Position: MID/FWD

2022 Highest Score:
155 Vs GWS Giants (AFLFantasy)
131 Vs GWS Giants (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
155 Vs GWS Giants | AFLFantasy (2022)
139 Vs Brisbane | SuperCoach (2021)

2022 Average:
83 (AFLFantasy)
85.7 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $472,000
AFLFantasy Price: $735,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $753,100

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

One of my favourite things to watch on AFL social media is when they introduce the new crop of draftees to the rest of the playing list. I remember a year when one recruiter introduced the draftees, and he went down the line of telling the players what they’re like as a person and a footballer. As he finished introducing the first player, he said, ‘he prioritises others and knows how to play good football.’ Then, going down the line and introducing every player, he finished each introduction with the same sentence. That AFL club was trying to recruit, but more importantly, drive home a club culture. When I think of that statement about ‘prioritising others and playing good football’, one of the first players I think of is Errol Gulden. The Swans academy graduate is a classy footballer with a high footy IQ, beautiful foot skills and a burst of speed that opens up the game around him.

In his second season in the AFL, Gulden averaged 19.5 possessions, 4.5 marks, 3.3 tackles and almost a goal per game. From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he averaged 83, placing him 13th among all forwards. He scored three tons, including a career-high 155 against cross-town rivals GWS. In that match, he had 33 touches, 12 marks, four tackles and two goals. He also had four additional scores between 90-99 & five more above 80. For SuperCoach in 2022, his average of 85 has him ranked as the 20th-best forward option. Last year from his 22 games, he scored six tons; three were above 120, including 131 & 130.

Some of these scores might not leap out to you as ‘amazing’ for a forward. But there are two key important considerations. Firstly, you’re not selecting him to be what he has been to this point in his career. Rather you’re using the past to give you confidence in his growing scoring trend. And then the trend is exceptional for someone that’s played under fifty games of footy. Second, The bar to being a premium forward currently needs to be lowered. Gulden is already close to being a top-ten forward. Yes, we’ll gain options during the year, but we still need to find out who and what the scoring is. Just 17 players are forward eligible in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, averaging over 80 last year, only seven over 85 and four over 90. In SuperCoach, we have 20 players entering the year with an average of 85 or higher, 13 over 90 and just three with 100+.

If you’ve played either SuperCoach, AFLFantasy or DreamTeam for more than one season, you’ll be very familiar with Errol Gulden. He started 2021 as the most dominant cash cow. In his first three AFL games, he scored in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam 108, 93 & 98. While in SuperCoach, it was an insane 139, 136 & 74.

Since game one in the league, Gulden has shown he can score. And as he enters his third season, it’s understandable why coaches believe he could become a premium forward in 2023.

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MY TAKE

Some big names stand out when I look at the forwards available in 2023. For example, Josh Dunkley is in many SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam coaches eyes as the standout top forward option this year. Arguably, he’s got the pedigree and potential to be the top-scoring player for the season across all lines, not just the forward division.

Most coaches across the formats would then place Stephen Coniglio and his former teammate Tim Taranto inside the top five midfielders. Then it opens up a bit, but Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, Isaac Heeney and Dylan Moore are all viewed as top-ten forwards. As good as these five should be, I couldn’t categorically say they’ll all be significantly far ahead of what Errol Gulden could be. In reality, he’s a mark & a kick away from being a 90-averaging forward.

More specifically, his scoring growth doesn’t have to come from increasing his ceiling frequency. It’ll help. But the greatest growth opportunity is around consistently raising his scoring floor. Last season, he had three scores below 60 in SuperCoach and six under 65 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. Even by turning these sub-65 scoring games into low 70s, he’s yet again on track for a 90+ average.

What Gulden will have over many of these names is being incredibly unique. Barring a drastic scoring game in the preseason, he’ll safely have under 5% of ownership. To have a guy with the current scoring trend, ceiling capacity, and low ownership as a starting squad option is huge.

If you’re looking at Gulden seriously for your side, it’s likely at an F3 position. Which, in principle, he can achieve. But the challenge in selecting him is twofold. The first is around the future positional additions & second is the team’s forward structure.

What is unknown is which players will populate the DPP additions for rounds six, twelve and eighteen. Last year we had some highly relevant gains throughout the season, including Bailey Smith, Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, Luke Parker and Rowan Marshall.

Additionally, we’ve got some sensational value in our forward lines from steeping stones, breakouts & cash cows. It’s why I can see plenty of teams ruling him out in favour of creating the space they need to position their side for their preferred structures.

For some, Gulden was never on the radar. Others are secretly dirty with me for even bringing up their point of difference. While for some, they’ve got something new to consider. Either way, Gulden is relevant for the 2023 season.

DRAFT DECISION

Have you tried to rank forwards for the draft in 2023? It’s pretty disgusting. It’s why you’ll see the top-end forwards get taken heavily in the first few rounds.

Based on his 2022 averages, Errol Gulden is ranked as the #12 forward in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 19th in SuperCoach. That would place him as an F2 selection across all formats. He’ll be a popular selection in that range and, as such, will likely leave draft boards around the 6th-7th round.

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#41 Most Relevant | Patrick Cripps

Read Time:7 Minute, 15 Second

The phenomenal season from Patrick Cripps was topped off by winning the Brownlow Medal. And for the first time since 2019, he averaged above 100 in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam. Can the AFL’s reigning best player back it up and do it again in 2023?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Patrick Cripps
Age: 27
Club: Carlton Blues
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score:
139 Vs Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
162 Vs Western Bulldogs (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
163 Vs Gold Coast | AFLFantasy (2019)
194 Vs Brisbane | SuperCoach (2019)

2022 Average:
102 (AFLFantasy)
111.1 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $611,900
AFLFantasy Price: $903,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $926,400

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

That was some season from Patrick Cripps! The only thing that could’ve made that season any better for him would’ve been for his beloved Blues to crack a finals birth finally. From a personal perspective, his stunning season was topped off by winning the Brownlow Medal. In 2022 he ranked third in the AFL for clearances, stoppage clearances & contested possessions per game. He also ranked inside the top twenty for disposals, score involvements & effective disposals.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored eleven tons; seven were above 120, including 130, 138 & 139. He had an additional seven additional scores of 84 & above. That looks solid, but he made his mark at the start of the season. In six of his first seven games, he reached triple figures, and in the match he missed, Cripps was subbed off at quarter time on 36 with a hamstring injury. In reality, in his first six full games, he averaged 125. He enters into 2023 with the fifteenth-best average of all midfielders.

His scoring in SuperCoach is even more prolific. From his 21 games, he scored thirteen tons, eight of which were over 120, six over 130, including scores of 146, 151 & 162. Despite a hamstring injury, his start of the season was so dominant that if you didn’t start him, you were always playing catch up. Over the first seven weeks, he posted five scores over 132 and even with the subbed-out game of 38, he still averaged 125 over the first seven matches.

These scoring runs of 110+ in AFLFantasy and 120+ in SuperCoach herald back to his seasons of 2018-2019. In those seasons, Cripps has a genuine top-tier midfielder across the formats. In those two seasons, he averaged 119.4 & 117.1 in SuperCoach, while in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 109.3 & 101.4.

Patrick’s disposal numbers for 2022 were almost identical to 2018-2019. However, both his tackles and marks were down. The big new element for Cripps in 2022 that hadn’t previously existed was that he began kicking goals from the midfield. He averaged a goal a game for the first time in his career. Additionally, he had five games where he kicked more than one. He evolved from a clearance and contested beast to the complete midfield package by converting on these important opportunities.

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MY TAKE

Over the years doing the 50 most relevant, we’ve had several guests on our podcasts. One of them is The Statesmen, who can regularly be heard on The Draft Doctors & also on the Point of Difference podcasts. For the past few seasons on these brands, he’s been highlighting to the fantasy community the curse of the Brownlow Medal for the coming fantasy football season. To win a Brownlow Medal, you must have an incredible career-best season. And rarely does that level maintain, let alone improved upon for the following season.

So I dug into the past six Brownlow Medal winners, and one player, Patrick Dangerfield, was able to improve their scoring the following season after a Brownlow Medal. However, every other play suffered a regression ranging from 10-28 points in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 6-34 points in SuperCoach.

* Indicates Adjusted Averages (x.125) used for the 2020 AFLFantasy scoring
NB: Tom Mitchell didn’t play in 2019 due to an injury, so we’ve used his 2020 data

As Patrick Dangerfield has shown, just because many others have doesn’t indicate that Patrick Cripps can’t or won’t hold/improve his scoring. But what it does show is that history is against him regarding the likelihood of it.

Carlton has already confirmed that the Blues midfield will take a significant hit over the opening part of the 2023 season. Sam Walsh underwent surgery on his back in late December. The club believed they had no other alternative but to undergo the micro-discectomy procedure in his back. While no return date has yet to be set, the club believe he’d be available in April at the earliest.

What does that mean for Cripps? Increased responsibility! He thrived last year with the additional support of Sam Walsh, George Hewett, Matt Kennedy & Adam Cerra. Increased responsibility should mean some extra opportunities to score fantasy points but an even narrower focus that if any teams want to run a midfield tag, he’s the only target. As a reference, the Blues opening five games are against Richmond, Geelong, GWS, North Melbourne & Adelaide.

As important as Sam is to the Blues midfield structure, the player that’s the key to scoring success for Cripps, according to the 2022 data, is George Hewett. Or should I say his absence? What Hewett brings to the Blues midfield unit is defensive pressure, presence and the footy smarts to protect the space for Cripps to be at his damaging best. But in doing so, George absorbs plenty of fantasy football points. In the fourteen games they played together last year, Cripps averaged 94.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102.8 in SuperCoach. However, in the seven games Hewett didn’t play, Cripps went at a mouth-watering 117.1 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 127.9 in SuperCoach. That’s a differential of 22.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 25.1 in SuperCoach.

Historically one of the major concerns behind ‘trusting’ Cripps as a reliable premium midfielder had a poor history of getting through seasons unscathed. However, Cripps has missed just three matches in the past three seasons. Staying with the narrative as he’s ‘injury prone’ as the reason for avoiding him.

The combination of Cripps’ history of being a hot streak scorer and the trend of seasons after winning a Brownlow is enough of a reason for me to fade on starting Patrick in my starting squads across the formats. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, I see him as an upgrade target if the price is right. In SuperCoach, he’s certainly an upgrade target, but if someone wanted to start him, I wouldn’t fight them to stop that.

DRAFT DECISION

Even though Patrick Cripps had an average draft position of 43 last year, If you drafted him, you got a bargain pick. By average, entering 2023, he is the 15th-best midfielder and the 12th-best in SuperCoach by averages.

Based on that, I see him being popular as an M2 across the formats. Ranked beneath him in SuperCoach are Jack Steele, Josh Kelly, Ollie Wines, Sam Walsh and Darcy Parish. But I need to see more options for him to slide to not being inside the top 20 midfielders picked.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam scoring formats, I’d rather him at M3 than M2. But that’s personal preference and rankings. By last year’s average, Josh Kelly, Tom Mitchell, Jy Simpkin, Darcy Parish, Marcus Bontempelli and Noah Anderson are all ranked below him. I’d rather select them ahead of Cripps. So although I’d rather have him at M3, I know his ADP will mean he’ll go inside the top 20 midfielders as an M2. So in the drafts I’m in, I’ll likely miss out on the chance of selecting him.

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#42 Most Relevant | Bailey Smith

Read Time:8 Minute, 14 Second

Bailey Smith started the 2022 season on fire; he became one of the most popular and in demand players. Entering 2023, I have barely seen anyone mention him, let alone plan to start with him. His low potential ownership could be a gold mine for coaches willing to jump on.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Bailey Smith
Age: 22
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score:
154 Vs Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
144 Vs Collingwood (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
154 Vs Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2022)
150 Vs Adelaide | SuperCoach (2020)

2022 Average:
105.6 (AFLFantasy)
98.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $542,700
AFLFantasy Price: $935,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $958,300

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Heading into the 2018 AFL draft, many recruiters were heralding it as a super draft. And they were right. Ben King, Max King, Sam Walsh, Izak Rankine, Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Bailey Smith have all established themselves as stars of the competition after just four seasons in the AFL. Early in the 2022 season, media commentator and North Melbourne Premiership player David King said of Bailey that ‘he’s got the potential to be the best player in the competition; I think that highly of him.’

What makes Bailey such a good footballer is his incredible endurance and workrate. These two elements create the base for his reliable field kicking, the exciting burst of speed, and the ability to win the footy, making him the complete modern-day midfielder.

He flew out of the blocks in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam last season with a 154 against the reigning premiers Melbourne. By the time the 2022 season was done, he’d scored eleven tons from sixteen matches, including 131, 147 & the already mentioned 154. He also had two additional scores of 90+ and only fell under the 90 mark in just three games. In 81% of games last year, he scored 92 or above. His average of 105.6 places him as the tenth-best midfielder. That’s a phenomenal effort! Even more so when you realise, he averaged more last year than Jackson Macrae, Sam Walsh, Josh Kelly, Marcus Bontempelli, Hugh McCluggage, Christian Petracca and the Brownlow Medalist Patrick Cripps.

Bailey’s SuperCoach season wasn’t as prolific, but the highlights are still very impressive. His average of 98.6 consisted of six tons, all above 110 and three over 135. To go alongside this ceiling was a solid scoring floor. Only three times last year did his scoring dip below 80, and two of those games were against eventual premiers Geelong.

There’s a significant gap between what Bailey delivered over the first nine rounds and then what happened in his final seven games of the year. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, between rounds 1-10, he averaged 118.4. While from rounds 12-23 (remember he missed a big chunk of the season with suspensions), he averaged 89 from seven games. The split is comparable in SuperCoach. Over those first nine games, he averaged 112.2; in the final seven, he went at just 81. As a result, some will see his start to the season as unsustainable, while others will see the opportunity for some starting squad value.

His premium midfield potential was apparent in 2021. He averaged the high 80s across all formats. But it’s been visible for a while, right back in his debut season of 2019. He scored ten times over 80 as a cash cow, including a ton in AFLFantasy. While in SuperCoach, he scored two tons and nine additional 80+ performances.

Bailey Smith has the scoring pedigree to be the top-scoring and top-averaging player in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam in 2023. And in SuperCoach, he could be right in the tier of the top 5-10 midfielders. So he’s very relevant and needs to be considered in 2023.

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MY TAKE

One game can change your relevance in fantasy footy. In the Bulldogs final series loss to the Dockers, Bailey Smith had 85% of the game in the midfield. Fantasy Freako (the Twitter handle connection champion data and fantasy football fans) tweeted that, as a result, he missed out on MID/FWD DPP status by 0.6%. The sad news for the fantasy community is we cannot select him in what would have been one of the top forwards for the season across the formats. Had he been a MID/FWD, there’s no doubt he’d be in the conversation as a top ten pick for the fifty most relevant. However, there is a big positive that’s come out of him not gaining DPP. He’ll be unique as a midfield premium.

Last season Smith played just sixteen matches. He missed round two as a precaution with a hip complaint. Bailey played every game until missing round eleven and missed with illness. The biggest gap was when he missed multiple games from round thirteen onwards with a suspension due to head-butting Zach Tuohy. That suspension was followed immediately by a club-given ban due to some off-field indiscretions. That’s a decent patch of games missed, but none are linked to each other. So you can’t build a narrative that he’s injury prone or rough. The reason is he’d played every game of his first three seasons.

The departures of Lachie Hunter or Josh Dunkley shouldn’t impact his role too drastically. I expect Bailey to split his time similarly to the past 18 months. That is a combination of centre-bounce attendance, playing off the wing and being a high half-forward that pushes into the midfield. At his best, the Bulldogs would want him to be a second-touch player. I’m sure they’re fine with him winning the contested footy at clearances, but ideally, they want him receiving that touch from another player. As a second-touch player, he can use his speed, power and endurance to create opportunities for the powerful Bulldogs forwards.

Opposition sides could look to shut him down and send a tagger to prevent his run; we saw Geelong opt to do that a few times last year. But, as effective as it was, I can only see a few teams choosing to shut him down and allow players such as Tom Liberatore, Marcus Bontempelli and Jackson Macrae to run free.

With the 50 most relevant and Coaches Panel in general, we discuss all game formats. Some players are relevant to a format exclusively, while others are equally relevant across the formats. Bailey is certainly a factor and highly relevant in SuperCoach, but history indicates he’s more favoured to the formats of AFLFantasy & DreamTeam. You’re not punished (or rewarded) in these formats for how well you distribute the ball. This aids Smith, as in 2022, he was ranked first in the competition for turnovers and 12th for clangers per game.

The dilemma for AFLFantasy & DreamTeam coaches wanting to own stocks in him is cheaper than Bailey are some strong midfield premiums with a nice fantasy history. For example, in AFLFantasy, Jack Macrae is $19,000 cheaper. You’d save $27,000 going Christian Petracca over him. One of my favourite fantasy players is Josh Kelly, and he’s $37k cheaper. At the same time, another value buy is Darcy Parish, who’s $47,000 under Smith’s starting price. While the pricing differs across AFLFantasy & DreamTeam, the value translates across the formats.

Of course, you can always select Bailey alongside these guys. However, getting the mix right between this grouping of midfield premiums and the tiers above and below is important. Seeing those names at a lower price might be enough for some in these formats to consider him an upgrade option.

The scoring capacity is there in SuperCoach. Scores of 122, 135, 139 & 144 showcase the pedigree. However, his floor contrast to the other formats is probably less regular. It’s why coaches in this format are less likely to consider him in the starting squad.

One last thing to keep an eye on is the potential for Smith to gain MID/FWD DPP again during the mid-season DPP allocations. He got it last year, and no reason to think he couldn’t be in the mix again for 2023.

DRAFT DECISION

The drafting range for Bailey Smith will vary depending on the format you play in. In SuperCoach, he’s currently ranked as the 29th-best midfielder. So I see him getting drafted in that range, which would make him an M3 and probably get selected around the first fifty draft selections.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam scoring leagues, he’s the tenth-best midfielder by average. He’ll be a popular M2 that’ll start heading off draft boards in the second round and will be gone well and truly in the third. I’m also a fan of drafting him at M1 if it means you’ve also been able to secure another elite top-end premium in another line.

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#43 Most Relevant | James Sicily

Read Time:5 Minute, 15 Second

Twelve months ago, James Sicily was one of the value buys of the season. He became one of the best fantasy defenders & was worth keeping all season long. Coming off the back of his career-high season, are you prepared to spend big to have James in your starting squad?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: James Sicily
Age: 28
Club: Hawthorn Hawks
Position: Defender

2022 Highest Score:
151 Vs Western Bulldogs (AFLFantasy)
147 Vs Gold Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
151 Vs Western Bulldogs | AFLFantasy (2022)
164 Vs Sydney | SuperCoach (2020)

2022 Average:
96.4 (AFLFantasy)
113.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $624,700
AFLFantasy Price: $854,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $875,200

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

That was some season from James Sicily! He was one of the most popular value buys in starting squads last year, and with good reason. He received an injury-affected discount due to missing the entire 2021 AFL season. He would have set you back just under $450,000 in SuperCoach, below $475,000 in DreamTeam and barely over half a million in AFLFantasy. In some formats, twelve months on, he’s nearly doubled his starting price.

Sicily has always been a fantasy performer. Before his injury, we’d seen multiple seasons of data that he’s a consistent 85-95 scoring defender in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 95-105 in SuperCoach. Historically, players coming back off ACLs take time to find their peak. That wasn’t the case for James. Last season he ranked first in the AFL for marks and rebound 50s per game,. He was ranked also inside the top five for kicks, intercepts, and metres gained by game averages.

Diving into his AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he played all twenty-two games and averaged 96.4. That ranks him fifth amongst all defenders available in our backlines this year. He scored ten tons, including a career-high score of 151, which he scored in the year’s final round. Sicily also posted nine additional scores between 81-99. Meaning he had just three scores below 80 all season.

Those statistics look excellent, but they are dwarfed in contrast to what he achieved in SuperCoach in 2022. He scored fifteen tons, including a hot stretch of round consecutive from rounds 3-11. He posted seven tons over 120, five over 130 and two monsters over 140.He ranks second by points and averages of all defenders. Even more pleasingly would be the fact was he was ranked 8th last season in SuperCoach for total points. He outscored midifled gun like Christian Petracca, Andrew Brayshaw, Marcus Bontempelli and Brownlow Medaliast Patrick Cripps.

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MY TAKE

If you’ve been listening to our podcasts throughout this series (if not, you can here), we’ve discussed the challenges presented to us in the defensive line at length. Alongside the ruck, it’s one of the tricker lines to lean into with full confidence of just who will be the top-tier options.

Across the formats, there is a consensus that Jordan Dawson and Sam Docherty will be among the top few defenders. It also seems common to have Tom Stewart and Jack Sinclair up towards the top of the rankings. But where people place James Sicily is partially linked to which format/s of the game you play. His 2022 & career stats will indicate that SuperCoach is certainly a more favoured scoring format.

An interesting trend emerges when you break down the season of Sicily, especially in SuperCoach. In the thirteen games before the bye, he averaged 116.7 and had five of his seven 120+ scores. However, in the final nine games, he averaged 108.6 and had only two scores over 120. You can view that split in two ways. One, he still possesses some value after a slower end to the season. Alternatively that his 110+ start to the season was unsustainable. How you view that data will play a significant role if you start with Sicily or view him as an upgrade target.

By starting with James, you believe he should be able to maintain his scoring from 2022. But that would mean he maintains his spot as a top-five ranked mark, rebounds, kicks and intercepts in the league. It’s right within the realms of possibility, but Hawthorn will want to move away from a defence centred around Sicily as the primary defender and attacking presence from D50. So I’d lean towards him as an upgrade option, but given three of his past four seasons, he’s averaged 103+, so I’d not talk anyone out of starting him.

I’m targeting Sicily as an upgrade target in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. I don’t believe he possesses the ceiling frequency (score over 120) that he’d hurt me by going against him.

Even if you don’t start him, you’ll watch closely how he starts the season, as he’s a must-watch as an upgrade target.

DRAFT DECISION

Given the dominant season of James Sicily and the lack of top-end defensive premiums, I can guarantee he’ll be taken off the board as somebodies D1. He’s ranked second by averages in SuperCoach and fifth in AFLFantasy. I can see him heading off draft boards in SuperCoach in the late second through to the third round, as people will be desperate to lock away a top-tier defender. He’ll be selected later and slide perhaps a round later in AFLFantasy scoring draft leagues.

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#44 Most Relevant | Luke Davies-Uniacke

Read Time:6 Minute, 49 Second

Last year Luke Davies-Uniacke moved from the realm of a hopeful fantasy footballer into a player with the potential to be among the top scoring premiums in the game. But, under a new coaching regime, can LDU become one of the most relevant players in 2023?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Luke Davies-Uniacke
Age: 23
Club: North Melbourne Kangaroos
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score:
145 Vs Collingwood (AFLFantasy)
149 Vs Collingwood(SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
145 Vs Collingwood | AFLFantasy (2022)
149 Vs Collingwood | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average:
93 (AFLFantasy)
101.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $557,400
AFLFantasy Price: $824,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $844,300

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

North Melbourne fans haven’t had much to smile about over the past few seasons. One of the shining lights from 2022 is that Luke Davies-Uniacke appears to be on the verge of AFL stardom. He well and truly broke out as a footballer and a fantasy footballer last year.

The signs of the 2022 breakout season were starting to emerge the year prior. He appeared to have overcome the injury concerns of the past and played twenty games. He averaged 81.6 in AFLFantasty/DreamTeam, which featured eleven scores over 82 and, to date, his first ton a 115 against Richmond. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 84.9, scored five tons and had three additional scores between 90-99.

In 2022 LDU averaged 25 touches a game going at an efficiency of 77%. He ranked eleventh in the league for centre clearances and fourteenth for inside 50s. From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he finished the season with eleven tons, four of them over 120, including a 129 & his career-high 145 against the Magpies. He ended the season with an average of 93.

Over in SuperCoach, he scored ten tons; five of them were over 120, including 138, 141 & 149. He also had five additional scores between 92-97. He ended the season with an average of 101.2.

As good as the trend of scoring was over the season, the data from round nine onwards has caused coaches to be highly optimistic that he can elevate himself into the next tier of premium midfielders. Over a fourteen-game stretch between rounds 9-23, he averaged 103.35 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and scored ten tons. In SuperCoach, he averaged 110.5, scoring nine tons and only going under 88 once. If he could maintain those averages over a season, that’d place him right on the ledge of being a top-10 midfielder across the formats.

Luke offers the scoring potential of a top-tier midfielder, and he comes in at a lower price. Part of that is due to an injury-affected game. He was subbed out in round two against the Eagles. That day he dislocated his shoulder and then missed the subsequent next week. If you’re looking for a premium-level midfielder and a lower price, then Davies-Uniacke is an option.

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MY TAKE

The scoring trend for Luke Davies-Uniacke is strong and clear. He’s finally gotten over his body concerns and is showing the footballing world why he was selected at the draft with #4 back in 2017. His past fourteen games of AFL are why the community is considering him as a starting squad candidate. But where does that run relate in contrast to the past two seasons of scoring?

Last year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, we had 24 players with an average of 100 or more. Twelve players averaged over 105, while we had just six over 110. In 2021 we had 29 players average triple figures, 22 over 105 and 10 going 110 or higher. SuperCoach had 44 players achieve an average of triple figures in 2022. Seventeen of them were above 110, while just seven went 115+. The seasons prior, we had 43 players average over 100, 19 over 110 and fourteen over 115.

If you want to start Luke in 2023, there are a few things you need to factor in. Firstly, you believe his final few months of the season will maintain into the upcoming season. Even if it fell by five points per game, his average would only elevate to a 98 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 105 in SuperCoach. Based on the previous two seasons data, that would make him a bust selection for your starting side.

The second is that in SuperCoach or DreamTeam if you’re selecting him, it’s with the intent that he’s in your side until round 24. You don’t have enough ‘fat on the bone’ to make selecting him financially worthwhile as a stepping stone. When investing this much of your salary cap, it’s with the desired intent that it won’t be attached to a trade unless injury or suspension forces it. AFLFantasy is a different beast, with two trades a week. He’s got some upside of 12 points based on his average to what he did over the final fourteen games.

As North Melbourne steps into a new era under Alastair Clarkson. Like with any new coach, we cannot assume that what we saw under an old regime will automatically translate into the new. Now, I don’t see a world where LDU isn’t the leader of the midfield unit. But it’s more about how the supporting cast around him functions and what (if any) impact that has on his volume of ball and fantasy numbers.

Ben Cunnington is at the back of his career but is a clearance beast and missed significant parts of the year. At the same time, George Wardlaw was the best-contested ball winner from the draft crop. Jy Simpkin can play on the outside but has done some of his best work as an inside ball winner. Then you’ve former first-round selections in Tom Powell and Will Phillips pushing for a regular spot in the best 22. While Hugh Greenwood is no slouch when he’s in the middle.

There are plenty of reasons coaches can fade interest in starting LDU, but the upside is clear, proven and apparent for starting Luke. Of course, a player in his price range might only be for some. You can structure the midfield in multiple ways. However, if you’re in the market for a player who’s potentially under his value and could reach the edges of the top tier of midfielders, then not only is LDU relevant but he must be considered.

DRAFT DECISION

Based on the 2022 seasonal averages, in SuperCoach, Luke Davies-Uniacke is ranked as the 21st-best midfielder and 35th-best in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. He’ll get selected higher in SuperCoach draft formats because his scoring is more favourably weighted. He’s got the potential of an M2, but he probably will come in at an M3. Ranked by average beneath him are Bailey Smith, Noah Anderson, Tom Green & Tom Mithell. I can see all getting selected ahead of him in most leagues.

Over in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam scoring formats, he’ll be selected inside the top 30 midfielders, with George Hewett, Jayden Short, Will Brodie and Travis Boak currently ranked above him. If your drafting LDU any ‘higher’ than an M3, you’re potentially running a little skinny on your midfield depth.

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#45 Most Relevant | James Worpel

Read Time:7 Minute, 39 Second

Since breaking out in 2019 and averaging over 90 across the formats, it’s been a downward spiral in fantasy relevance for James Worpel. However, in 2023, it’s make or break not just for his fantasy relevance but also for his time on an AFL list.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: James Worpel
Age: 23
Club: Hawthorn Hawks
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score:
88 Vs Carlton (AFLFantasy)
88 Vs Port Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
134 Vs Gold Coast | AFLFantasy (2019)
149 Vs North Melbourne | SuperCoach (2019)

2022 Average:
52.3 (AFLFantasy)
56.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $309,300
AFLFantasy Price: $463,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $474,500

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Sometimes you can predict that a player will turn into a fantasy football star. Other times you can be wrong. After a second-season breakout, many thought James Worpel would become a premium. However, since then, his fantasy star has faded considerably. Thankfully for us as fantasy coaches, there are three primary reasons we can be excited about the potential of James in 2023.

Firstly, proven scoring potential. In year number two for the Hawks, the “Worpedo” was launched, and he elevated himself to becoming one of the next big things after winning the Hawthorn Football club’s 2019 best & fairest. The catalyst for this was a preseason injury to Tom Mitchell, where he suffered a broken leg at training that ruled him out for the season. So Worpel was forced to step up after playing just nine AFL games the season before. And step up, he did! Worpel averaged 26.5 possessions, 3.3 Marks, five tackles and even snagged himself ten Brownlow votes.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he averaged 96.7 and scored ten tons, including a 126 and his career-high 134. He had an additional eight scores above 85. In SuperCoach, he averaged 97 and scored eight tons, including six consecutive tons between rounds 17-22. He also had nine additional scores between 85-99. While three full AFL seasons have passed since then, a scoring pedigree like this has excited coaches.

The second reason for excitement brewing amongst the fantasy community is the vast opportunity for midfield minutes that’s opened up at Hawthorn. In what can only be seen as an experience firesale, the club traded away Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara in minutes. They were both the club’s second and third-highest centre-bounce attendances midfielders. Beyond Jai Newcombe and possibly Dylan Moore, the club desperately needs more midfield experience and depth. In time guys like Josh Ward, Ned Long, Connor Macdonald, Jai Serong, and the newly drafted Cameron MacKenzie will all be prominent. Hawthorn needs help through the midfield. With a big body and over 70 games of AFL experience in his five seasons at the club, there couldn’t be more of an opportunity or need for him to step up.

Looking at the hawthorn list, only seven players have more AFL experience than Worpel. They are new recruit Karl Amon, premiership hero Luke Breust, Chad Wingard, James Sicily, Jarman Impey, Blake Hardwick and Sam Frost.

Lastly, the attraction is around his price point. Due to a low-scoring season last year, he’s priced as a stepping stone across the formats. Contrasting his current price point to his 2019 seasons, is over 40 points per game of value built into his price. However, even if you wanted to look back at his 2021 numbers, he’s still offering over 20 points per game of upside.

If you’re in the market for stepping stone midfielder, then James Worpel has the history of proven scoring to be someone well worth considering.

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MY TAKE

When people discuss James Worpel and his fantasy pedigree, they almost exclusively discuss his 2019 season. But he’s far from a one-season wonder. The following season 2020, he averaged 88 in SuperCoach, which featured three tons, including a 133 and four additional scores of 90+. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 77.2, but given the shortened quarters of games that year, it’s more reflective of a 96.5 based on an adjusted average. He had six scores over 80 (remember in 2020 when 80 was the new 100), five over 90 and a 107 against the Bombers. If you want to use the adjusted averages formula, 107 is a 134. So yes, his 2019 was great, but his 2020 was more than serviceable.

The departures of Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara have opened the door clearly for someone. And James Worpel should be a regular in the Hawthorn midfield unit. Many believe that despite a poor start to the year, had he not suffered a season-ending shoulder injury, he would have finished the year in the AFL.

Opportunity is everything! That’s often the mantra pushed by fantasy content creators. And while I agree with the spirit behind it, the sentiment is incomplete. Opportunity is something, but it’s up to the player to take that opportunity and create something.

He has the opportunity to be a midfield regular, but it’s not certain it to be his, let alone translate to his fantasy output. You may have noticed that I have yet to mention his fantasy scores from last season. That’s intentional. He averaged 52.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam; for SuperCoach, he averaged 56.2 and had a top score of 88 across the formats.

The opportunity was there last year, yet it still needs to be translated. Before getting dropped in round ten, only Jai Newcombe and Tom Mitchell were the midfielders getting more centre bounces. Even in round nine, when Mitchell missed the match, the coaching staff looked to Connor Nash and Chad Wingard to pick up the slack. So to assume that JOM & Titch are no longer there and he’ll pick up the slack and smash out the fantasy points for Worpel is not just overly simplistic; it’s not valid.

It should be Worpel’s time; he should be the player that the coaching staff go to as support in the midfield, and he should be inside the Hawks best 22 safely. But should is not will. If he’s currently in your preseason team, you need an alternate plan in case he doesn’t become a reality.

Thankfully, depending on your format, we’ve got multiple other options at a comparable price. For example, Jacob Hopper in SuperCoach is less than $25k more expensive, while Dom Sheed is another $100k further up in AFLFantasy and DreamTeam. So even if he doesn’t deliver or come up to scratch, you’ve got options around his price range which means you don’t have to break structure.

Because we have several stepping-stone midfielders, I can see coaches being split on whether to select Worpel or one of the other options or explore more pure guns and rookies approach. However, if he has a dominant preseason, the hype will only build—one to certainly monitor on the watchlist.

There is a world where Worpel comes out from round one and provides coaches with a minimum of 35 points per game of value. If he does that, he’s relevant. I could also see him coming out and delivering more of 2022’s scores into 2023. If that happens, he’s relevant. Remember, this series isn’t about the 50 best prospects or highest-scoring players but the most relevant. And given the expectation, ownership hype and general discussion around James this off-season, he looks to be among the most relevant names for 2023.

DRAFT DECISION

James Worpel’s draft position will be entirely linked to the level of salary cap format hype in the pre-season. If he has a strong pre-season and is a primary part of Sam Mitchell’s midfield, he’ll be drafted considerably higher than where his 2022 average might rank him.

However, if he cannot be viewed as a clear best-22 option, let alone as a primary midfield option alongside Jai Newcombe, then he’ll be a late flyer selection at best. For a bench spot on your team he’s certainly got plenty of upside to be worth placing a late selection on.

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#46 Most Relevant | Mitch Duncan

Read Time:7 Minute, 17 Second

From the 2022 season, we’ve lost plenty of topline defensive premiums. One of the potential big gains is Mitch Duncan. This premiership Cat shapes as one of the new defenders that could populate our teams in 2023.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Mitch Duncan
Age: 31
Club: Geelong Cats
Position: Defender

2022 Highest Score:
138 Vs Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
123 Vs Sydney (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
169 Vs Western Bulldogs | AFLFantasy (2017)
156 Vs Collingwood | SuperCoach (2020)

2022 Average:
92.6 (AFLFantasy)
88.4 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $486,800
AFLFantasy Price: $820,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $840,400

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It happens every single season. We lose some top-end premium options in the defensive line. For the 2023 season, we’ll start without Jack Crisp, Jayden Short and Lachie Whitfield. All of whom have been high-scoring options in our backline. But with the departures comes the arrivals, and in our backline, one of the biggest new additions is Mitch Duncan. The Premiership Cat spent the entirety of last year across the half-back line, and had he not held MID/FWD DPP in 2022, he would’ve gained defensive status during the season.

The move into the backline enabled his decision-making and clean kicking skills to shine as he, alongside Tom Stewart, became the primary movers of the ball out of the Geelong defensive 50. Last year he averaged 23.4 touches a game, 8.4 marks, and 3 rebound 50s per game. In fact, across the league, he ranked by average second in the AFL for marks. Only he and James Sicily averaged more than 8 per game. He also ranked 14th by average for uncontested possessions. However, he got that much space due to his football smarts and workrate to create open opportunities for his teammates to get him the ball.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he averaged 92.5 across the season. That featured six tons which included 124 & 138. He also had three additional scores between 90-99 and had his scoring dip below 70 on just two occasions.

While in SuperCoach, his average was marginally lower, with an 88. He scored just four tons, but pleasingly they were all above 115. He had four scores between 90-99, and just like in AFLFantasy had only two scores dipping under 70.

If you look over his career of Mitch, it’s evident that he always could execute high fantasy football scores and averages. Since 2014 he’s had a season averaging 110 across the formats, along with multiple other triple-digit averages. While these are important to highlight his fantasy pedigree, they were done when he played as a midfielder. So as good as the averages look, we can only consider his 2022 data as that’s his only season playing as a defender.

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MY TAKE

At the time of writing this article, one important piece of information currently needs to be discovered. And that piece of information could significantly sway the way people view Mitch Duncan. That is how the formats will treat round thirteen in contrast to the other bye rounds. Over recent seasons we’ve had only three bye rounds and six teams on a break each week. In those weeks, the formats function of a ‘best 18’ on field scorers counting towards your weekly total. However, in 2023 we have four bye rounds, with round thirteen having just the Gold Coast Suns and Geelong Cats with the week off. Whether the formats treat this round as a ‘best 18’ or a standard 22 will ultimately determine how Duncan (amongst other Suns and Cats premiums) is viewed.

If the formats opt into this being the best 18 scorers on the field scoring round, then a premium defender like Duncan could become extremely valuable. He becomes the constant theme in your backline during the other three bye rounds as you make upgrades and team benchings. While in round thirteen, getting 22 on-field options to get into a scoring 18 should be easy to accomplish. If round 13 is treated in such a way, you should consider bumping Duncan (amongst others) up in your rankings. Having a consistent premium in the harder three MBRs is a gift.

The formats could also maintain the 22 scoring on-field options and force coaches to look to their bench options to cover any Suns or Cats players. Should this be their approach, covering Duncan with a bench option for a week is relatively easy. As a non-playing ‘blue dot’, he also can provide you with an easy vice-captaincy loophole player if needed.

As a reference point, years ago, Port Adelaide would often host a game in China, and as a result, the AFL would schedule them alongside their opposition with a standalone bye-round. The fantasy formats viewed these rounds as a standard scoring round of 22 on the field.

Sometimes it pays to look beneath the surface and see the causation behind a scoring jump. For example, between rounds 2-11, Duncan had only two scores over 90 and one above 100. During that stretch of games, he averaged 86 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 81 in SuperCoach. However, in round 12, Tom Stewart went down early in the game with a concussion.

From then on, and over the next nine weeks, he became the primary transition player out of defensive for the Cats and averaged 100 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 96.8 in SuperCoach. Remember, Stewart missed four of those games through suspension, plus the concussion sub-affected game. As a reference, from 14 games, Duncan averaged 89.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam when playing with Tom and went at 101.8 in five games without him. That’s a differential of 12.5. While in SuperCoach, he scored 86.1 with Stewart and 95 without him. A gap of 8.9 per game.

While those points might not feel enormous, that’s enough to take Duncan from pushing the topline of our backline premiums to a few levels below where we need our premium defenders to be. If you’re considering him in your starting squad, you are confident he’s a top 5-6 averaging defender for the majority of the season. If not, why is he in your starting squad? You are better to off paying up for someone you believe that is, or getting on a breakout candidate.

I’d rather target him as an upgrade than consider him a starting squad selection unless the bye-round ruling I described above eventuates. In that case, he needs to be considered as a starter.

DRAFT DECISION

Over his career, Mitch Duncan’s always had a low scoring gap between his SuperCoach & AFLFantasy averages. That trend continued into this role across half-back. Despite that, Mitch’s drafting range varies depending on which platform/format you choose to draft. We have a likely deeper pool of 90+ averaging defenders due to the scoring avenues of SuperCoach in contrast to AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.

His average of 92.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam puts him above the top 10 defenders. After Sam Docherty, Jordan Dawson and Jack Sinclair, the next group of defenders open up for the next few picks. I see Mitch getting picked anywhere from the next man as the fourth defender selected overall right through to the tenth defender drafted. Either way, he’s a D1 selection, and coaches will start looking for him no later than the fourth or fifth round.

Over in SuperCoach, with an average of 88.4, he falls just outside the top 30 defenders based on last seasons averages. That said, purely on name value, I see him getting picked up as early as a D2. He’ll certainly get picked ahead of guys like Nick Hind, Tom Barrass and Luke McDonald, who averaged more than him last year.

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#47 Most Relevant | Ben Cunnington

Read Time:7 Minute, 20 Second

After battling throughout much of 2022 cancer, Ben Cunnington returned to play two games for his beloved North Melbourne last year. Entering 2023, he’s back to full health and is now eligible for selection as a MID/FWD. If he can return to his scoring peak, he’s hugely relevant for every coach.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Ben Cunnington
Age: 31
Club: North Melbourne Kangaroos
Position: MID/FWD

2022 Highest Score:
62 Vs Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
57 Vs Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
147 Vs West Coast | AFLFantasy (2018)
185 Vs St Kilda | SuperCoach (2020)

2022 Average:
52.5 (AFLFantasy)
49.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $419,000
AFLFantasy Price: $668,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $630,400

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For overcoming cancer alone, Ben Cunnington should earn a spot on this list. What an absolute champion! In a challenging season for the Kangaroos, returning to football against the Adelaide Crows in round 22 became one of the season’s stories. While he didn’t return in these two games anywhere near his best football, nobody should expect that. Just getting back to playing elite-level football highlights his character, determination & love of playing for the Kangaroos.

Due to playing just two matches last year, he’s received a significant discount on his starting price. In SuperCoach, he’s priced in the mid-’70s; for AFLFantasy, he’s priced at an average in the low ’70s & DreamTeam, it’s the high ’60s. That well unders

Looking back at the 2021 season, you can see the significant value he could offer coaches this season. That year he ranked by average second in the league for clearances & contested possessions. Furthermore, he ranked third for centre clearances and tenth for stoppage clearances.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he averaged 99.2. That season featured seven tons, including 126 & 131. He had an additional two scores over 95 & didn’t drop below 70 all year. While that was his career-high seasonal average, he’s a regular between 82-88. In these formats, that’s over 15 points per game of value over his career average baseline.

Cunnington has always been a stronger SuperCoach performer. In his 2021 season, he had a personal best of 108.7. In addition, he registered nine tons, six of them over 120 and went on an eight-game stretch of consecutive tons where he averaged 124.

In the four seasons before this, he averaged 88, 94, 82 & an adjusted 82.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. While for SuperCoach, between 2017-2020, he averaged 91, 96, 102 & 102. So while expecting a return to his 2021 scoring rate is likely beyond him, a combined average of 86.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 97.75 in the last four seasons is certainly right within the realms of possibility.

Beyond the obvious potential scoring value compared to his price point, the fact that he’s picked up forward status only further boosts his relevance stocks. Cunnington could be the perfect stepping stone to get you up to the premium of your choosing, whether through the midfield or the forward lines. Equally, he’s got the potential to score well enough to be a premium in your forward division for the season if the variables all fall his way.

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MY TAKE

There are two types of ‘value’ in fantasy football. There’s potential, and then there’s proven. Potential is about forecasting what a player could do but has yet to get the history to back up the potential. Proven is about someone who has already been there and done that.

When looking at players in Ben Cunnington’s price range, plenty of players offer potential value, but that’s the keyword. Potential! But they need a midfield role to be secured or locked into the best 22. With Ben, there is no need to forecast and hope for a role or job security. He is a known quantity and a proven performer.

The question about Ben shouldn’t be whether he is offering value. Rather, the conversation concerns our forward structures and whether or not you can get comparable performance from cheaper options. For example, SuperCoach has always been Ben’s strongest performing format, yet we’ve got many possibilities in that format. Nat Fyfe is also a proven performer with a stronger scoring upside, given his history of multiple 120+ seasons. He’s also over $100,000 cheaper than Cunnington.

Of course, you could select both, but with the combination of multiple excellent cheap forward options under $200,000 & some high-end forward premiums, it does become hard to fit all these ‘value’ guys into your side. It’s why I can see a lot of coaches overlooking or fading Cunnington, as he will only fit within a few coaches preferred structures. However, that shouldn’t be a reason not to consider him. As we looked at his stats from the 2021 season, Cunnington can go on a hot streak and be the top scoring forward for multiple weeks.

Some might be concerned about his role in the North Melbourne side. Arguably the line they have the best depth of young talent is through the midfield. Luke Davies-Uniacke and Jy Simpkin have shown they are strong midfield options. Then you’ve got the newly drafted George Wardlaw and first-round selections from the 2020 draft crop in Tom Powell & Will Phillips. They need experience in addition to giving these young players opportunities. Cunnington is the perfect player to mentor and develop this young crew. So while he might not be the #1 midfielder in there for the season, I struggle to see him getting pushed too deeply down the pecking order for the 2023 season.

Great fantasy football coaches consider every possible known variable to gain an edge on the completion. During the season, the multi-bye rounds are one of the greatest moments for moving significantly in your rankings. It’s regularly evident that coaches who’ve planned well sail past those who still need to, even if they’ve had a less than a favourable start.

With Ben having the round 15 bye, he can provide you with multiple trading options up to and through the bye rounds. Should he not hit the heights expected early on in the season, it’s a simple sideways manoeuvre to the stepping stone that has popped. If he flies over the first few months, you can run him through the first few weeks of the MBRs before moving him to any premium forward you wish.

Only some coaches will want to structure their side with a stepping-stone option. Some will be tempted to hold to a close ‘guns & rookies’ approach in the forward line. As a result, Cunnington might not be for you. However, Ben should be considered if a stepping stone is of interest. He’s got the potential to turn into a season-long hold if all the variables fall your way.

DRAFT DECISION

Ben Cunnington’s draft range will depend on two variables. One is the format. The other is timing. Over his career, Ben has shown a greater high-scoring threshold in SuperCoach than in other formats. His strength is winning the ball at clearances and in contested situations. If your drafting in SC or with customisations, he will go multiple rounds earlier and could be picked up as someone’s F3 with F2 upside. If you draft in more AFLFantasy scoring versions, he should still be a solid pick & has the upside of being inside the top 30 forwards but getting drafted in an F4 or even F5 range.

The other variable is timing. When you have your league’s draft day’ you may see his range drastically swing. If he’s dominated a preseason match, he’ll leapfrog up the ranks, in contrast to those who draft in February without anything other than intraclub data behind them.

Cunnington will get drafted; the question is where not if.

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#48 Most Relevant | Chad Warner

Read Time:7 Minute, 11 Second

With only thirty-five AFL games to his name, Chad Warner quickly emerged as one of the best young midfielders in the competition. Entering his fourth season, he looms likely to become one of the most fantasy-relevant players across the formats.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Chad Warner
Age: 21
Club: Sydney Swans
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score:
127 Vs Fremantle (AFLFantasy)
155 Vs Essendon (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
127 Vs Fremantle | AFLFantasy (2022)
155 Vs Essendon | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average:
88.67 (AFLFantasy)
96.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $532,700
AFLFantasy Price: $785,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $804,900

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Not many players with under forty games of experience are targeted by teams for a heavy tag. And with a Syndey team that boasts Luke Parker and Callum Mills in it’s midfield core. And yet, that’s still what happened to Chad Warner. In round 20 against the Giants and again in round 23 versus the Saints. These sides started to target him because of his exceptional burst of speed and his ability to break the game open and set up his teammates for a scoreboard impact.

Last year Warner ranked per game sixth in the league for goals, assists and inside 50’s, as well as finishing top fifteen for metres gained. He doesn’t just set up his teammates; he impacts the scoreboard himself. He kicked 17.22 last year and had just four games all season that he didn’t register a score on the board.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he averaged 88.67 across the season with eight tons and one score of 127 over the important ceiling 120 barriers. While over in SuperCoach, he averaged 96.7 across the home and away season. It consisted of ten tons, three over 120, including a 148 and a career-high 155 against Essendon.

His fantasy numbers also don’t reflect his role on Grand Final day. Largely Warner played a lone hand in the Swans 81 point loss to the Cats. In the year’s final match, he picked up 29 disposals at a rate of 72% efficiency. Eighteen of his touches were contested; he won ten clearances, six score involvements, five inside ’50s, three rebound 50’s, kicked two goals and scored 113 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 126 in SuperCoach. That’s some game, given how dismantled the Swans were by the Cats.

Chad still needs to become a premium midfielder. But one of the keys to success across any salary cap format is accurately forecasting what a player will become and not having to pay up for the premium performances. Twice across the 2022 season, he had a four-game stretch of consecutive tons. From rounds 6-9, he averaged 106 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 110 in SuperCoach. Then, six weeks later, he did it again. Between rounds 16-19, he averaged 111 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 130 in SuperCoach.

Some other indicators should give coaches confidence in his emerging premium potential. Before the bye averaged 53% attendance at centre bounces and was averaging 87 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 94 for SuperCoach. However, post-bye, his averages increased by five points per game across each format while he increased his presence at centre bounces up to 73%.

Will Chad Warner become a premium in fantasy football? Of course, but that’s the wrong question. The correct one is will it be this year? The trend is certainly positive, and if he can pop into the next tier, it’ll be a handy headstart for the owners who jump on.

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MY TAKE

Last year was the year of mid-price selections, and most of them all came off. As a result, we saw a high volume of similar squads with only some minor differentials across the formats. In 2023 while we have plenty of significant value picks, it’s at a different level. Additionally, the statistical likelihood of that many all working out again is extremely unlikely. Throw in the challenges of the ruck division, and we should see plenty of starting squad variance this year.

This is important when considering the viability of starting with Chad Warner. He has the potential to elevate himself to the next tier of fantasy premium midfielders. The next tier leap is for him to average 100 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 110 in SuperCoach. Removing Josh Dunkley from the midfield listing for a moment, we’ve got only 18 players that scored over 100 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam last year and ten over 105. While in SuperCoach, we had 25 going at 100+ average and fourteen over 110. Chad’s close to these top-end scorers already.

It only takes Warner a dozen more points per game to get into these scoring levels. That’s just two or three more touches with a mark, and he’s there. And with him averaging only 23 possessions, four tackles and 3.5 marks a game, it looks very plausible on the surface. However, it’s not just about Warner. It’s about the Swans midfield unit as a whole. With his and James Rowbottom’s continued emergence alongside the star midfielders of Callum Mills and Luke Parker, there’s already plenty of ball competition.

Additionally, we cannot discount that Warner became the tag target for opposition sides. Is it because he’s the Swans best midfielder? Not currently. Teams tag for the primary purpose of attempting to shut down a player’s strengths and impact in order to beat them.

With Parker and Rowbottom, their strengths are the inside ball winning. That’s hard to stop. Mills is so versatile that even if you tag him, he could move to any other position on the ground and expose his opponent’s weakness. With Warner, his scoreboard impact and speed in space can be minimised with a heavy tag. Of all Sydney midfielders, he can be most ‘impacted’ by a tag. As he plays more footy, he will learn to navigate these, but I can foresee a few games this year where it will come and hit him hard. As a reference point, the Swans first six matches of the year are against the Suns, Hawks, Demons, Port, Tigers & Cats.

Warner is an easy consideration to start with in AFLFantasy. Not only because of his proven potential to put together consecutive tons but because he offers you multiple options. Should his scoring pop early, he will not only score well on the ground for you but also generate cash. While if things go pear-shaped, it’s a simple move after a few ‘down weeks’ to the midprice player scoring like a premium. I’m likely to start Chad in AFLFantasy for this reason.

In SuperCoach and DreamTeam, if you’re selecting him in your starting squad, you intend to hold him as a premium for the season. He might not be a ‘captaincy’ level premium midfielder, but he could push right up towards it. If you have any hesitation that he won’t be, that could, then Warner isn’t for you. Instead, find the money to get up to the premium you believe will be a top-line option. Or drop down to a stepping-stone midfielder like Jacob Hopper, Dom Sheed or James Worpel.

Right now, Warner might not be that appealing or relevant to you, but over the preseason and as tinkering starts to happen to your sides, you’ll consider Chad more than once in your team.

DRAFT DECISION

Regarding your draft with Chad Warner, you’ve got M2 upside, with a price tag of M3. In some leagues, you might get lucky to slide to the M4 range in some drafts. As a reference point, he’s ranked 34th in SuperCoach for midfield (removing DPP) & 41st in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam minus DPP options.

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#49 Most Relevant | Angus Brayshaw

Read Time:6 Minute, 39 Second

After years in the fantasy football wilderness, Angus Brayshaw emerged as one of the best defenders in 2022. Can he back it up and be relevant again in 2023?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Angus Brayshaw
Age: 26
Club: Melbourne Demons
Position: Defender

2022 Highest Score:
156 Vs Essendon (AFLFantasy)
176 Vs Essendon (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
166 Vs Adelaide | AFLFantasy (2018)
176 Vs Essendon | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average:
99.1 (AFLFantasy)
100 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $550,300
AFLFantasy Price: $878,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $899,500

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Angus Brayshaw is no stranger to being selected inside our fantasy football sides. It’s been a few years since coaches had been happy they selected him, but after being in the fantasy football wilderness, he established himself as one of the best defenders across the formats in 2022.

The initial cause of the scoring pop was when Christian Salem went down injured early in the first game of the season. As a result, ‘Gus’ was forced to relocate off the wing, where he won a premiership and became one of the Demons primary playmakers off half-back. Last year he ranked eleventh for uncontested possessions, thirteenth for marks & twentieth for intercepts per game. All of these are testament to his ability to find space and to work well within the Demons back six.

Across the season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored eleven tons, five over 120, including a season-high 156. He had additional scores between 90-99, and his scores dropped below 70 just once all season. His average of 99 sees him currently ranked as the fourth most expensive defender behind Sam Docherty, Jack Sinclair and Jordan Dawson.

In SuperCoach, he scored twelve tons, five of which were higher than 120, and it featured his career-high score of 176 against Essendon. That match consisted of thirty-four possessions and an incredible twenty marks. Over the twenty-two games, he had four additional scores between 90-99 and had only five games sub 80 all year. Of all available defenders in 2023, he’s currently ranked sixth for total points and tenth by average.

His average of 99 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 100 in SuperCoach is a testament to his consistency all year. However, there is an upside to Brayshaw. Over the final four rounds of the home & away season, he started to attend centre bounces. Something he had yet to do all season. In those weeks for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored 108, 100, 123 & 94 going at an average of 106. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 108 with scores of 123, 113, 113 & 83. It’s a small sample size, but it shows that you’ve got some more scoring potential left on the vine in all formats.

There are few defenders capable across all game formats, averaging 100 for an extended run & with a scoring ceiling exceeding 150. With Angus Brayshaw, you have both. Gus also has the important round 14 bye. Beyond him, only James Sicily & Jordan Dawson are eligible for defensive premiums.

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MY TAKE

It was a long time in between fantasy football-relevant drinks for Angus Brayshaw. 2018 was the only other year he’d averaged over 90. That year he excelled and averaged 105.1 in AFLFantasty/DreamTeam and 97 in SuperCoach. So while 2022 isn’t an isolated event, it does stand out like a sore thumb compared to the rest of his career.

What does have people seriously considering starting with Gus is the way he ended the season with an average over 105 across the formats, but importantly as a midfielder based at the centre bounces. In that final month + AFL finals, he was the clear third-choice midfielder, with only Jack Viney and Clayton Oliver spending more time at CBA’s.

The key question coaches considering Brayshaw must answer is what role he holds down for 2023? And how secure is he within it? We saw last year that his coach was happy to use him across various roles and positions to fix gaps within the side. During the season, Goodwin was asked about Brayshaw’s role moving forward in the side, and he said, “Angus has been clear that he’ll do whatever he needs to do for what the Melbourne footy club needs.”

Last year Brayshaw played three key roles, each fulfilling a primary coaching directive. Between rounds 1-11, he played as a half-back to cover the absence of Christian Salem. In that stretch of eleven matches, he averaged 95.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 92.8 in SuperCoach.

Upon Salem’s return, Brayshaw maintained his role in the backline while floating between defence and midfield. During that seven-game stretch between rounds 12-19, he averaged 100 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 106.5 in SuperCoach.

Before finally, the centre bounces arrived, he averaged 106 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 108 in SuperCoach over four games. Why did he move into the midfield? Simple, to allow Christian Petracca more time inside forward 50. Placing him there more regulalrly added dynamically to a forward line that failed to find the same potency as their premiership season.

Nobody can have confidence in a season-long role for Brayshaw. So if you’re selecting him based on him being a CBA midfielder, then you’re going ‘all in’ on the Demons structures, not using him as a swingman. That’s a bold and historically dangerous decision.

The Melbourne midfield dynamic will change this season. Brodie Grundy’s arrival and Luke Jackson’s departure will do that. Let alone the lifeline they threw to Lachie Hunter. He’s no certainty for best 22, but he could absolutely find a role.

For those seriously considering Angus in their starting squad, the above splits should give you some confidence that even with some positional instability, he still possesses scoring pedigree, and his ‘poor’ output should still see him among the top dozen defenders.

Equally, I can see coaches fading on starting him. While there is upside potential, it’s not a drastic upside. We’re only talking about a handful of points. So even with a strong start, he should still be attainable in price. The same might not be able to be said for players like Sam Docherty, Tom Stewart, Jack Sinclair or even Jordan Dawson.

He won’t be a ‘sexy pick’ pick in starting squads, but he deserves his place in the conversation as one of the most relevant players to consider in 2023.

DRAFT DECISION

It’s early in the preseason, but the popular trend is to lock away one of the premier forwards and the high-end midfielders. The odd defender might go off the board in the second round, but it’ll be late second. In reality, we should start to see our D1’s leaving the draft board somewhere between the third and fourth rounds. If you want to own Angus Brayshaw, you’ll need to snag him here.

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